Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Edwin Jackson

Offseason Target: Edwin Jackson

By Adam H. Wong

By 10-31-2012

Although the Seattle Mariners have a ton of starting pitching depth, and with how volatile pitchers can be, it wouldn't hurt to keep their options open. The free agent market is thin this year, so the M's will have to do some bargaining if they want to add veteran talent to their roster.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo
Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher
Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau
Billy Butler

What Edwin Jackson brings
Edwin Jackson has been on a different team almost every year he's been a major leaguer. He's never been a superstar -- he's been an all-star once -- and other than that accolade, Jackson's been the epitome of what an average pitcher looks like. The league average strikeout-per-nine rate for this season is 7.14; Jackson's K/9 rate this year finished at 7.97, up from his career 6.87 average. The right-hander's fastball sits in the low-to-mid nineties which he pairs with a slider, changeup and curveball.

In Jackson's career, right-handed batters are hitting .265/.329/.428 against him, while lefties are hitting .276/.348/.427. That's about as neutral a platoon split as you are going to find in an average pitcher, and that's probably his greatest strength. His 2.28 strikeout-to-walk ratio against RHBs is quite a bit better than the 1.70 rate that he put up against LHBs, but he has improved his weapons against left-handed batters and has produced better ground ball rates since the middle of last season.

Contract
Jackson signed with the Washington Nationals in early February of this year, and being that he's a Scott Boras client, he's probably going to be seeking a long-term deal. As previously mentioned, the 29-year-old has been relatively healthy, so that's one thing he has going for him when it comes to contact negotiations. He's durable.

Uneducated clubs tend to value playoff experience more than they should, and Jackson's recent lackluster performance might hurt him some. I would say he could be seeking a five-year deal, costing the club $10-$12 million each season, perhaps more.

Why would Seattle?
Assuming that the Nationals don't try to sign Jackson, the right-hander would be a fit in any ballpark. He's not a groundball machine, but he's not Phil Hughes, either.

Seattle isn't desperate for pitching but the Mariners could sit comfortably having three pitchers, Felix, Jason Vargas and Jackson, that could throw 200-plus innings for the next couple years. Having that sort of depth gives Seattle some flexibility in regards to trading one of the young arms.
The M's could also trade or non-tender Vargas, who could receive more than $8 million via the arbitration process, and use that money, and then some, to give to a better starter. Felix does need a No. 2, but Jackson may fall short of such a title.

Seattle will have money to spend. The question is whether or not they would benefit from spending it on an average-ish pitcher like Jackson. He wouldn't be getting in the way of any pitching prospects, at least before 2014, as Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton for all intents and purposes, may still need a half a year before becoming big league ready, and Taijuan Walker is still a year or so from the majors. Jackson could be a more than a Kevin Millwood placeholder -- if the M's are in contention, he could help significantly during a playoff push.

Conclusion
The Mariners have a great deal of pitching depth. They don't need Jackson, necessarily, they already have the likes of Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi to fill out the back of the rotation. If Seattle thought they might contend in 2013, signing the right-hander might be near the top of their list. Doing so probably suggests that the club wants to wait a little longer on their farm arms.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

offseason-target:-edwin-jackson
Comments
The following 5 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: Adam H. Wong on 10-31-2012 14:12:01
It was brought to my attention that Jackson is no longer a Boras client, per Ken Rosenthal. This doesn't effect the fact that he'll still be seeking a long-term deal. Since Boras is out of the picture, clubs who dislike dealing with Boras may look twice at Jackson.

2.  By: jgstecker on 10-31-2012 14:26:11
Jackson makes a little sense if Iwakuma leaves or only signs a one-year deal. I think in 2014 Seattle doesn't need to have more than two pitchers signed to big contracts. Between Hultzen, Paxton, Ramirez, Walker, and Maurer they ought to be able to fill 3 rotation slots.

Somone will pay him more than I'd be comfortable with.

3.  By: Jerry on 10-31-2012 15:04:37
If the M's are thinking about adding a starter, why not try something a bit more risky?

Tim Lincecum!

He sucked last year for the Giants, and was pitching out of the bullpen for them by the playoffs. The Giants have a lot of starting pitching, and probably don't need to spend $22 mil on a reliever. I wonder if they would move him. I bet it wouldn't cost much if the M's assumed most or all of that contract. He would be a great buy-low candidate, as his salary makes him difficult to trade to most teams. But he is only signed for one year, so there isn't any long-term risk.

From a marketing standpoint it would be brilliant. The fans would love it. The return to Seattle would be a great story line, and there aren't many guys who are more fun to watch. If nothing else it would sell tickets.

But if he turned things around and pitched like he has outside of 2012, the M's would have two elite Cy-Young-caliber guys in the rotation. How about a rotation of Felix, Lincecum, Iwakuma, Vargas, and Ramirez? Or move Vargas and fill in the back of the rotation with a cheaper option. Plus, Lincecum strikes me as the type of guy who would want to stick around in Seattle if it did work out. If he did well, then walked, the M's would recoup a draft pick that would probably be more valuable than what they gave up in talent to get him in the first place. Lots of upside.

If he continues to struggle it stands to reason that one of Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, or Maurer will be ready for a promotion by midseason. If any team is in position to take a shot at him, its the M's. This would make a ton of sense if the M's are willing to get the payroll back up towards $100 mil.

Just a thought.

4.  By: Edman on 11-01-2012 11:49:10
Jerry, what makes you think Lincecum is available? Because he had a bad year, does not make him available.

5.  By: maqman on 11-01-2012 12:05:24
Jackson is no thriller, not to me and surely not for multiple years in eight digits, that's a clown contract bro!

Jerry the Lincecum idea is far out, too far out. Betting $22MM The Freak will figure things out and then re-sign with the M's out of appreciation is a stretch.

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