Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Carlos Gonzalez

Offseason Target: Carlos Gonzalez

By Alex Carson

By 11-05-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here's who we covered thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler
Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew
Kyle Lohse

Let's discuss Carlos Gonzalez.

What Carlos Gonzalez brings
Carlos Gonzalez is different than other options we've discussed, as he's signed long-term for big dollars. After breaking out in a big way in 2010, the Rockies decided to lock Gonzalez up through the 2017 season with a seven-year pact.

Gonzalez, 27, draws most of his value with his bat. While he's seen a drop from the huge wRC+ of 144 he put up in 2010, he's still been well above average at the plate the past two seasons. His on-base skills are exceptional while hitting for average. Once on base, he moves around well and is usually good for about 20 steals per season.

The outfielder's defense has been a mixed bag over the years. After being an asset in both center and right field for the Oakland Athletics in 2008, Gonzalez's defense took a step backward as his offensive numbers improved in Denver. A return to being average lasted only one season in 2011, before seeing his lowest production this past season.

Only Jeff Francoeur and Adam Jones (who, hilariously, just won a gold glove) cost their team more runs scored against this past season. Gonzalez's -13 DRS was far and away the worst of his career.

As we've learned, it's difficult to draw conclusions from one season of defensive numbers, but this downward trend is one any prospective trade partner would want to discuss and evaluate. His defense could make the difference in his value as his paycheck gets bigger.

Contract
After the 2010 season, Gonzalez was awarded a 7-year $80 million contract by the Colorado Rockies. His salaries are bargains at $8 million and $11 million, respectively, over the next two seasons. However, the deal is heavily back loaded. It jumps gradually all the way up to $20.5 million in the final year of the deal in 2017.

Since Gonzalez will be only 32-years-old at the end of the deal, there’s a decent chance it won't end a complete albatross. His defense may jump around a bit, but his work at the plate should hold plenty of value as he begins to exit his prime.

Any team who wants to employ Gonzalez will be looking to maximize the return on their investment in the next two seasons. His relative low salaries during that span would enable any suitor the ability to add other pieces of the puzzle before Gonzalez's contract begins to swallow up large percentages of their payroll.

Trade Cost
How serious would the Rockies be about trading a guy like this? General manager Dan O'Dowd says they aren't, so anyone calling the Rockies will probably need to open the discussion with something that whets O'Dowd's palette. Pitching, for example. Young, cheap, frontline starting pitching.

For the Mariners, that could translate to top-end prospects such as Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. The Rockies aren't starving for help in the infield, so even if you wanted to ignore the holes you'd create by tossing names at them such Nick Franklin or Kyle Seager, Colorado simply wouldn't gain much from those moves. Especially considering one of their top few prospects is shortstop Trevor Story, who may be within a year of the majors.

Unless what O'Dowd has said is all fluff -- possible, but not likely -- Jack Zduriencik would probably have to start with Hultzen, Paxton or Walker -- and a secondary option such as Brandon Maurer or Erasmo Ramirez -- just to get the conversation to last beyond the minute mark.

Why would Colorado?
Quite frankly, I'm not so sure they would unless they were totally blown away by a package headlined by starting pitching, the organization's No. 1 weakness.

If Zduriencik could get O'Dowd to listen, though, the Mariners could paint a pretty picture with current and near-ready pitching talent that the Rockies sorely need in their hitter's haven at Coors Field.

Why would Seattle?
The Mariners -- and a large segment of their fan base -- have longed for a corner outfield bat the caliber of Gonzalez's that fits the traditional skillset that type of player possesses.

If the M's were able to swing a separate trade for -- or sign -- an undervalued starting pitcher that plays well to their ballpark, it could reduce the sting of losing one of their top future talents. Considering the risk surrounding pitching prospects, this is exactly the type of move Seattle made last year when dealing Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero, and while the jury is still out on that one, they generally work out for the club getting the bat.

Conclusion
It takes quite the stretched imagination to see Gonzalez being traded at all, let alone to Seattle for unproven arms. The better bet is that the Rockies keep Gonzalez unless a team offers a proven frontline starter under club control for 3-plus years. While the Mariners certainly have the proverbial prospect bullets to get conversation started, the cost to swing such a deal would be extremely high.

If the Rockies were a team desperate for middle infield help, the Mariners might be a good fit to start a deal with Nick Franklin or Brad Miller, supplemented with a couple solid bullpen arms and a B-grade starter.

However, while it appears the M's have this surplus of pitching prospects, we have to remember the frequency at which said prospects turn into really good major leaguers. The chances of even two of Hultzen, Paxton, Walker and Maurer turning into above-average starters are quite low.

Last season, there was a case to be made for the Mariners to trade a breakout pitcher such as Pineda for a bat. We learned two valuable lessons from that deal and its fallout: You don’t know when a pitcher will go from mediocre to good or from developing impact starter to the surgeon's table.

This year is different, though. The club's rotation, behind Felix Hernandez, is no longer a strength, at least not in the same manner. Yes, there's risk in pitching talent. But the Mariners have holes in their major league rotation, too, so an overpay for a player like Gonzalez isn't likely -- nor would it be wise.

Two things to remember with Gonzalez, too, is the fact that he's never put up star numbers in the American League, suggesting there could be a dip in his production from regularly facing the rotations of the A's, Rangers and Angels, rather than the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates.

The other factor is his road splits -- he's been wretched away from Coors (.234/.301/.405 in 2012, and an OPS 270 points south of is production in the thin air at home) -- and how he'd acclimate himself to a new home ballpark. Considering the above, Gonzalez appears to be a player with more value to the Rockies than he'd have with any other club in baseball.

offseason-target:-carlos-gonzalez

Comments
The following 5 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Tpatt253 on 11-05-2012 15:43:28
due to his stats away from denver, 3 years in a row now, his value is easily highest in Col, it seems like you have to overbuy... i think colorado has to listen to offers tho, they are a long ways away and if they can get multiple parts of value and address pitching it could behoove them.

im a believer in cargo's talent, even if the splits are a little scary, his prime years are still ahead of him... but they'd have to be willing to de-value him for his away stats...

maybe hultzen, pryor/capps, thames (a candidate who could thrive in denver)... dont see it happening in less they were in LOVE with hultzen, pryor/capps...i just want to see GMZ make his rounds around the league for a MOTO bat and cargo is one of em to check on.

2. By: outfieldgrass on 11-05-2012 18:31:16
With the minor league talent we have I feel we have one shot to bring in a big time bat without sacrificing our future. Just not comfortable going after a guy like Carlos Gonzalez, who has proven to be less of a hitter outside Coors. If we are going to deal one of Hultze/Waler/Paxton it has to be for a guy we know has a high probability of hitting in Seattle. For me Gonzalez is not even close to that hitter.

3. By: Rudolf on 11-05-2012 18:51:30
I think CarGo would be a welcomed addition to the team. His splits are scary, sure, but everyone has warts. If Colorado could be realistic about his road numbers, injury history, and escalating salary, he might be affordable to aquire in trade. I have very little doubt in CarGo's ability to perform in Seattle. The guy can hit the crap out of a baseball. If we could get him for Paxton, Maurer, Capps, + I would be excited as a fan. The idea of dangling Hultzen or Walker makes me queasy, but I'm sure I could get over it if the overall package weren't too much.

4. By: maqman on 11-06-2012 11:51:46
Not interested. Too much financial risk for a guy who's coming off of a bad year, only plays good in CO and has a long contract. A big old albatross who should stay a mile high.

5. By: malcontent1 on 11-07-2012 17:06:31
If we're talking about Rockies and paying the moon for under contract players, why not discuss what it would take to get Tulowitzki instead?

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