| By Adam H. Wong |  | By 10-27-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the off-season with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.
There are always reason why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.
What the player brings
Brett Lawrie is exactly the type of player that scouts think will profile well at third base. He projects to hit for power and he has the arm for the hot corner, and it's hard to imagine that Toronto isn't happy with his progress. He may have taken a small step back since 2011, but there haven't been any red flags yet. The 22-year-old was banged up quite a bit during his first full season in 2012, but he still managed to play 125 games.
The third baseman put up a healthy ratio of strikeouts-to-walks. The league average in 2012 was 2.4 strikeouts-per-walk, and Lawrie put up a 2.6 K-to-BB ratio. He was ranked in the top 20 of Keith Law's top prospects in 2011 and he's the kind of young third baseman that organizations get excited about: he can hit for average and power, and he fields his position well. He might be sort of a wild card, but that sort of attitude can also energize a team.
Contract
The third baseman will be a free agent in 2018, and he isn't even arbitration eligible until 2015. If Seattle were to make a deal for the young slugger, it would add to the pile of players they only owe league minimum.
Trade Cost
Lawrie is one of the young cornerstones in Toronto, so the cost would certainly be pretty high. They Jays would like to get a veteran starting pitcher to slide in behind Brandon Morrow and Rickey Romero, but the M's, aside from Felix, don't really have that sort of veteran to offer.
If Toronto really wanted starting pitching, dealing for a highly touted youngster like Lawrie could end up costing the M's an arm like James Paxton or Danny Hultzen, and Lawrie probably isn't the type of player you move for someone with as high a ceiling as Taijuan Walker.
The M's would like to get a stud at one of the corner outfield positions, so Lawrie could be packaged together with either Gose or Sierra, while Seattle could send a player like Nick Franklin to fill out Toronto's infield depth.
Why would Seattle?
The Mariners seem to be more than pleased with Kyle Seager's production at the plate, and he's shown that he can be more than adequate at the hot corner, perhaps even plus. Lawrie is just two years younger than Seager, and taking into account the difference in time played, they've put up somewhat similar numbers over the past two years.
Both Seager and Lawrie are in the exact same contract situation. Seager's shown more power than he originally projected to, but if Seattle is looking for more pop in their lineup, they'd likely take a chance on Lawrie.
Why would Toronto?
Kelly Johnson played second base for the majority of the 2012 season for the Blue Jays, and he's probably heading to free agency this winter. If Seattle sent Seager over to Toronto, he could slide over to second base and fill the hole that Johnson would leave. Adeiny Hechavarria's short stint in September, however, would complicate that scenario. He can play all over the infield, and he may be long for shortstop. But with Yunel Escobar signed until 2013, Hechavarria will probably find playing time at second base. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Toronto realistically let's Lawrie go.
Conclusion
Lawrie would profile as the first true power hitting third baseman the Mariners have seen in a while, and with the fences coming in, he might actually show the production that Adrian Beltre never reached at Safeco Field.
Seager's developed into Seattle's third baseman however, and it's hard to see both teams pulling the trigger. It becomes more of a real possibility if Lawrie's attitude becomes a problem, but if his bat is as loud as his bark, Toronto would suffer those types of frustration for production at the plate.
Simply put, Lawrie brings all-star upside and a club in the position in which the Jays sit -- much like that of the Mariners -- the time may not be right to pull the trigger. If they do, the Mariners don't appear to be the best match.
Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com.Follow him on Twitter here.
offseason-target:-brett-lawrie
Comments
The following 16 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: rrwrayiii on 10-27-2012 19:48:26 I like it... I really do. I can see Seager having a Major League average career at 3B, being a nice piece to our team, but Lawrie could be the guy in the top 5 at the position to push us over that hump. I feel the organization has quite a few guys with makeup resembling Seager, thus making him less unavailable. The guy I want the Mariners to make a push for is Jay Bruce. I think he could be that anchor in RF this franchise is dreaming of. |
| 2. By: ttvrdy on 10-27-2012 19:53:24 Why not shift Seager to SS if Franklin is part of the trade? |
| 3. By: iheartfelix on 10-27-2012 21:11:15 Would the Jays have any interest in Ackley? If we could package him with one of the "Non-Big-Three" arms, like Maurer or Erasimo (as much as I love the little guy) and maybe another piece or two, would that get Lawrie here? If so Seager moves over to 2B with Lawrie at the hot corner. That would be very interesting... Just how far out there is this thought? |
| 4. By: Adam H. Wong on 10-27-2012 21:40:47 Seager can't play SS. |
| 5. By: titans12 on 10-27-2012 21:41:34 No way Toronto would let this guy leave.Still think Alex Gordon is the best fit for this team. |
| 6. By: Seattlesteve on 10-28-2012 00:11:26 I really like Lawrie but if we are going to trade for a cost controlled elite player I can't help but be excited about the KC rumors... A Myers for Paxton and ackley based package. Offseason is gonna be tight regardless.. |
| 7. By: ripperlv on 10-28-2012 00:54:04 I watched Lawrie quite a bit in AAA and I like him alot. Big energy guy. I'm no scout or expert, but I really enjoyed watching him tear up the ball all over the field for the 51's. |
| 8. By: Edman on 10-28-2012 02:39:37 IMO, not a prayer in the world of Toronto trading Lawrie. Young, talented and cheap. He's a key to their future with big league experience. |
| 9. By: dewey on 10-28-2012 09:21:34 One other thing he is Canadian and that does matter to the people of Canada |
| 10. By: Juan Valdez on 10-28-2012 11:22:05 I don't know how true it is or if it's just one of those things that gets said once or twice and spread around the internet, but I know I've heard it said more than once that Zduriencik has a great big man-crush on Lawrie. Wasn't there a rumor last year that before the Montero deal went down, that Zduriencek tried to get a deal done for Lawrie and the Blue Jays simply weren't going there? Is there any reason to believe that the Blue Jays think differently now? As much as I like Kyle Seager, I would probably give him up for Lawrie. Would Seager, Maurer, and something else get it done or do you have to give up one of the big three? The real question, it seems, is whether or not Toronto is willing to listen. |
| 11. By: maqman on 10-28-2012 11:45:16 I don't think Toronto will listen on Lawrie. According to a Royals blog I read today they would listen on Mike Moustakas, who put up 3.7 fWAR this past season at 3B and Alex Gordon who had 12.8 total fWAR in the past two seasons. They need arms and we got some. They have been scouting K-Pax in the AFL but other pieces would have to be surrendered to get either of them. It comes down to what you want and what you got and what you have to give to get what you want. Trader Jack can wheel and deal with anyone. |
| 12. By: Juan Valdez on 10-28-2012 15:47:17 Looking at the general idea of trades, the name of the game would seem to be trading your overvalued asset for someone else's undervalued asset(s). We've talked about that a million times on here so it should just be stating the obvious. That said, who are those players? On our side, which among our collection of minor and major league talent are overvalued at present? Around the rest of MLB, which players are undervalued? It would be interesting I think to see a list of top 10 under-the-radar major and minor league players that we could target. |
| 13. By: marinermutt on 10-28-2012 16:24:44 If I could get Lawrie for Walker, you do it. But in my view, there is no way Toronto would take that. They would want way more. |
| 14. By: Timberwolf on 10-28-2012 22:01:08 Agree with Dewey #9. Jays don't move Lawrie unless they have soured on him. |
| 15. By: Jerry on 10-29-2012 16:37:47 This would be a great idea, if it were possible. But its not. Lawrie is not going to be available, because he is a cornerstone player for the Jays and they don't have anyone to take over at 3B. If we sent Seager in the deal, that is a fairly marginal upgrade. Look at their numbers. Seager was actually a better player in 2012. Lawrie clearly has more upside, but how much is that marginal upgrade worth? If the M's are going to trade Seager plus for Lawrie, they'll be less able to make more pressing upgrades elsewhere. Basically, it doesn't any sense for the Jays, and it doesn't make a ton of sense for the M's. |
| 16. By: roosevelt on 11-05-2012 14:27:42 Toronto is NOT trading Lawrie. |
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