Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Billy Butler

Offseason Target: Billy Butler

By Chris Crawford

By 10-30-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

Shin-Soo Choo
Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher
Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau

Now, Billy Butler.

What Billy Butler brings
Butler can hit. The right-handed hitting Butler has posted a career line of .300/.362/.468, and he's produced 258 extra-base hits over the last four seasons. He can't run -- which makes the 217 career doubles all the more impressive – and he can't play defense, but if you're looking for offense, Butler has been as good a DH as any over the past four years as anyone else in the American League.

Contract
The Royals avoided arbitration with Butler and signed him to a four year, 30 million dollar contract in 2011. The 26-year-old will be paid $8 million in 2013 and 2014, with a club option worth $12.5 million in 2015, or a $1 million buyout.

While this is not a small amount of money to pay someone with zero defensive value, it's fair to say that Butler would get this and then some on the open market. He's not a great bargain, but he's not overpaid, either.

Trade Cost
The Royals -- while being a ways away from contending for a playoff spot -- do not have to trade Butler, so the cost in trade is likely to be quite high, considering he's a bat only. Kansas City is desperate to acquire starting pitching, and it wouldn't be surprising if they dangled Butler for something better than a mid-rotation starter.

Neither of the big three arms in the M's system seem to make sense in a trade for a designated hitter, at least for Seattle, but an arm like Brandon Maurer could be involved.

Mauer, however, is probably a bit less advanced then what the Royals are likely to be looking for this offseason.

Why would Seattle?
While the fit isn't perfect, Butler's bat would be a welcome addition to the Mariners lineup. The issue would become where Butler would play. Jesus Montero is not an everyday catcher and has limited experience at first base -- none in games -- and Justin Smoak likely blocks both Butler and Montero from playing the position -- if the club keeps him around all winter.

Essentially, you would have to work out a way to get John Jaso, Smoak, Butler and Montero playing time. It would be difficult and less than ideal, but Butler's prodiction is too good to not explore the option.

If Butler landed in Seattle, Smoak or Montero would likely be headed out -- maybe even in the deal to KC.

Why would Kansas City?
Royals' owner David Glass has stated that the team is willing to spend money on pitching, but it's difficult to see the team being able to spend big dollars without shedding some salary, and if the team can get fair market value for a designated hitter they could spend Butler's money on said pitching needs. While such a trade would ding the lineup on the surface, prospect Wil Myers, and improvements from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, could neutralize the loss of Butler.

Conclusion
Contractually, this would be a perfect edition for the Mariners. It would allow the team to acquire a solid offensive player signed for the next 2-3 years, and at a cost that wouldn't break the bank. Unfortunately, he's a mediocre defensive first baseman with no chance of playing either of the corner outfield spots, and the M's have their long term designated hitter already on the roster -- Montero.

It's something to kick around, but it’s likely the Royals will value Butler more than Seattle does, making a trade unlikely.

If the M's move Smoak in a trade and plan on Montero taking over at first base -- which isn't an easy transition for someone without any game experience at the position -- Butler becomes more of a fit than he might be at present.

offseason-target:-billy-butler

Comments
The following 10 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: sexymarinersfan on 10-30-2012 14:43:51
Ask and ye shall receive.

Seattle acquires: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon

Kansas City acquires: Jesus Montero, Blake Beavan, James Paxton, Nick Franklin, Andrew Carraway.

That'd be a lot, but it's about what it would take. If they wanted more, no deal!

2. By: short on 10-30-2012 15:20:54
A quick comp between Butler and Montero for their first full seasons. Montero (age 22): .260/.298/.386, wRC+ 90. Butler (age 22): .275/.324/.400 wRC+ 90. Butler had fewer PA's which is why had the same wRC+ with better slash numbers. Montero struck out a bit more -- that's the main difference. Basically if we traded him for Butler we're just sort of buying an accelerated timetable + certainty on the same player for cash and some other talent. I'm not against the idea, but it's kind of a "win now" move if we give up too much young pitching.

If they get Butler without dealing Montero he can sit in AAA for a year and learn first base in case Smoak stumbles, but he'll be blowing up the pitching there by next September. The M's would need to find a place for him.

3. By: Jerry on 10-30-2012 15:51:03
I like Butler, but this would only make sense in the M's were moving a lot of other guys around. With Jaso, Montero, and Smoak already playing DH/1B/C, adding someone else to the mix would create a logjam unless there were other guys moving around.

Then we get to the issue of whether or not Butler is a clear upgrade over Montero. I'm not sure he is, long-term.

I think Montero and Butler are very comparable players. If you look at Butler's minor league and early ML stats, they are pretty similar. If the M's give up on Montero as a catcher, I think that he will likely end up as a Billy Butler clone. Obviously, Montero carries a bit of risk, and might not hit immediately. But he also still has a bit of upside to become better than that.

So, basically, the M's would be trading a riskier young/cheaper player for a similar, more established/expensive player, while likely having to give up some pitching too. Seems questionable unless the M's are pretty convinced that Montero isn't going to ever hit.

Additionally, by picking up Butler, the M's lose the ability to use the DH spot to rest guys, or take advantage of platoons.

Finally, is Butler that much better than a platoon DH? Maybe Johnny Gomes and Travis Hafner? Or some lefty bat and Casper Wells? Wells kills lefties, and should play against them as much as possible. Would it perhaps just make more sense to get him a nice platoon partner, maintain a bit of roster flexibility (especially with the team carrying Jaso), and call it good? Obviously, I'd rather have Butler all else being equal. But all else isn't equal, as it will cost talent and a bit of cash to get Butler.

4. By: Jerry on 10-30-2012 15:53:22
Sexymarinerfan:

How about Paxton and Beavan for Wil Myers?

5. By: sexymarinersfan on 10-30-2012 15:56:46
I'd do that, but I'm not so sure that KC would.

6. By: pwhit44 on 10-30-2012 17:24:23
I feel like this series of target posts is building to an Alex Gordon climax! That entry is just around the corner! It's the best it for the Mariners an Royals. I can almost taste the post (and the impending trade) right now... Wait for it...

7. By: iheartfelix on 10-30-2012 20:48:06
Jerry:

I don't think there is any chance of Beaven and Paxton bringing back Wil Myers. Beaven is replacement level at best, and Paxton is a fine prospect, but has had control issues throughout his career and has never pitched above AA.

I think KC is looking for someone that can plug into the middle of their rotation from day one, and neither of those guys fit the bill. Not to mention that they are probably counting on Myers to replace Francoeur who posted a wRC+ of 77 last year.

8. By: iheartfelix on 10-30-2012 21:56:48
the M's trading pitching for a bat only guy... I think I've seen that episode already. Give me Myers or Gordon, otherwise I think I'll just hold onto that pitching and increase my odds of getting at least 1 or 2 legit big leaguers out of "cerberus"

9. By: short on 10-30-2012 22:49:08
KC and Seattle have looked like perfect trade partners for a couple of seasons now, but after the year our top pitching prospects had I think it's gotten tougher. If either Hultzen or Paxton had demonstrated that they were ready to start in the majors next season we could pry loose a young hitter or maybe Gordon (and his salary) from the Royals. As it is we just don't have a lot of major-league-ready pitching talent to trade. Frankly the M's should probably be looking to add a couple of starters to those we currently have (I'm not including Iwakuma at this point). Right now our rotation is "Awesome. Ok. Who's that little guy?. Oh no. OH MY GOD!!!!"

Probably the most depressing thing about watching this team was how poorly the highly-touted young talent performed across the organization. I'm just not sure the M's can afford to give up talent at any position other than middle-infielder where they could trade one of Ackley, Franklin, Seager or Miller and probably be ok.

10. By: maqman on 10-31-2012 12:42:37
Butler isn't a good fit for the M's but Mike Moustakas is. He's young, in his age 25 year next season, put up 3.5 fWAR this year with +15.2 UZR/150 of defense at 3B. He could play 1B too. He would cost a lot less than Alex Gordon and have more value than Butler.

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!