Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Allen Craig

Offseason Target: Allen Craig

By Chris Crawford

By 11-07-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here's who we covered thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew | Kyle Lohse | Carlos Gonzalez
Todd Frazier | Zack Greinke

Allen Craig of the St. Louis Cardinals is next.

What Allen Craig brings
Craig can hit, it's really that simple. The right-handed hitting outfielder has posted OPS marks over .870 in each of the last two seasons, and provided 57 extra-base hits in 2012 in just 514 plate appearances. He crushes left-handed pitching, posting an impressive .354/.381/.630 line against southpaws this past season.

Defensively, Craig has played all over the field. In 2011, he started games at six different positions, but he's really best suited for a corner outfield position, and especially first base. He has an accurate arm, gets decent jumps and doesn't make mistakes on routes, but his athleticism has waned some as he's filled out physically. Fortunately, the bat is good enough to make up for any defensive deficiencies he brings to the outfield.

He's a below-average runner, but is intelligent on the bases and is in his prime.

Contract
Craig is not slated for arbitration eligibility for another year, so he will be a cost effective player for at least the next two seasons. Cost effectiveness is good. Craig might even be worth a 3-4 year extension.

Trade Cost
Cost effectiveness also generally equals 'difficult to acquire,' so the Mariners would likely have to part with a really nice package of talent to acquire Craig, and they may not be able to do it solely on the strength of prospects. The Cards are perennial contenders and they have no reason to move on of their more productive bats without getting true value in return. Plus, the Cardinals system has improved markedly over the past few years.

St. Louis' best infield prospect is Kolten Wong -- a flawed player with a limited ceiling -- so players like Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley and Brad Miller could be of interest to the Red Birds.

Why would Seattle?
This one seems pretty simple to me. Craig could fit in as the starting left fielder or first baseman -- depending on what else the club acquired over the winter. The 28-year-old is not a cure-all, as he's more of a No. 5 hitter, not an MVP candidate, but he's better than any other bat the M's currently employ and could hit third or fourth.

When we discussed Nick Swisher, we talked about his versatility, and Craig is similar in that fashion, though he's not as consistent in the outfield and isn't a switch hitter. If there's a deal to be made with the Cardinals, the Mariners should make it.

Why would St. Louis?
This is tricky. Yes, Craig is one of the Cards' best offensive players, but the question becomes whether or not there is room in the lineup for him long-term. The Cardinals currently have Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday under contract for 2013 and they'll be paid $30 million combined.

Craig is the best first baseman under contract, but Matt Carpenter's best position is first base and the Cardinals want to get his bat in the lineup so badly next year that they have asked him to work out at second base this offseason. The Cardinals also have Oscar Tavares, a corner outfielder, waiting in the wings, and with the large cash committed to the current corner outfield Craig could become expendable soon.

There are quite a few what-ifs to consider, but Craig is certainly not untouchable and therefore worth the discussion.

Conclusion
Craig's not likely to be available until next offseason at the earliest and the M's aren't equipped to blow away the Cardinals with an offer that includes impact talent in the middle infield. If St. Louis makes another acquisition or two to change things, perhaps their roster needs change and Craig becomes a chip.

Until then, he's a true long shot.

offseason-target:-allen-craig

Comments
The following 4 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Jerry on 11-07-2012 10:01:42
What about Mike Adams? He's a great hitter who is currently stuck behind Craig. He's not A's versatile or proven, but would probably come cheaper.

2. By: maqman on 11-07-2012 11:16:00
You are right Chris, this is just too much of a long shot and the price in talent would be very high.

3. By: malcontent1 on 11-07-2012 17:17:06
Let's not forget 4 trips to the 15-day DL since 2011

4. By: Panhead55 on 11-07-2012 19:42:40
Might the Mariners and Cards consider a swap of their best prospects?
Walker for Vladimir err I mean Tavares.

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