Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Alex Gordon

Offseason Target: Alex Gordon

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-07-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Previously published reports:
Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew | Kyle Lohse | Carlos Gonzalez
Todd Frazier | Zack Greinke | Allen Craig | Chase Headley

What Alex Gordon brings
It took Gordon a few years to figure things out at the plate, which should make M's fans feel better about Dustin Ackley's future, and now the former Nebraska third baseman is a star left fielder in the prime of his career.

After posting a .215/315/.355 line in 2010, Gordon has been very good the past two seasons, batting .303/.376/.502 in 2011 and .294/.368/.455 this past season. He smacked just 37 home runs combined, but tallied 96 doubles those two seasons, leading the league with 51 in 2012. He'll strike out some -- 279 times in 1411 plate appearances over the same span, he's also drawn 140 walks and been a value on the bases.

He's struggled some versus left-handed pitching, but it's not to the point where he's an automatic out and there's a chance 2012 is the outlier to the split. In 2011, Gordon was strong versus lefties, suggesting he could still have room to improve here.

He was fringy at third base but has taken well to left field and has won two straight Gold Gloves. And guess what? He's deserved both. How about that?

Contract
Gordon signed a four-year deal with the Royals last March and is under contract through 2015 with an option for 2016. He's set to earn $9 million in 2013, $10 million in 2014 and $12.5 million in each of the following two seasons, including the option year, totaling $44 million over the next four campaigns.

If he keeps producing the way he has of late, it's a terrific value, as the former No 2 overall pick has been worth nearly 13 wins above replacement over the past two seasons, the third best mark among American League hitters.

Trade Cost
The Royals can afford to keep Gordon, and they can afford to do so and still afford the upgrades to their starting rotation that they desire. This fact means Gordon isn't going to be cheap by any stretch, and his contract is far from detrimental to his value.

While the Royals aren't going to 'shop' Gordon, he may not be off limits if the pitching return is also elite, creating a potential match with Seattle. Moore is certainly going to prefer proven talent, but a package that starts with right-hander Taijuan Walker or includes James Paxton, Nick Franklin and another young arm -- Erasmo Ramirez or Brandon Maurer? -- could be enticing.

Why would Seattle?
Gordon may be the best fit for the Mariners among any possibilities this winter, assuming he's not out of the question. He's 29 in February, which means he's in his prime right now, and his skills translate to any ballclub and any ballpark. The M's have long been rumored to be on the search for a right-handed power bat, but if Jesus Montero is at least part of that solution, there's no reason to pass on Gordon for a lesser right-handed stick.

The cost, however, may be prohibitive, and there's a chance the Royals hold out for proven big-league players, rather than prospects, anyway. Walker is a steep price, but the M's have to give up something to get something. I'm not entirely convinced Gordon is worth a package including Walker and Franklin, but I'd certainly consider it.

Why would Kansas City?
What's not clear about the Royals' search for pitching help is that they can acquire such pitching without parting with one of their young hitters.

Free agents are called 'free' because they have a choice, too, and it's difficult to believe impact arms are going to flock to Kansas City when so many other clubs, including most contenders, are also in the same market for the same pitchers. General manager Dayton Moore is likely to come up short in his quest for such arms if he places the untouchable tag on the likes of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer,
Billy Butler and Alex Gordon.

Gordon has the most value, followed by Butler, while the Royals might be selling low on Hosmer and Moustakas, both of whom struggled at the plate in 2012. Trading Butler may be a tough task, since he's a DH only and the market for such players is thin, creating little competition. This leaves Gordon, whose value is quite high and the club has prospect Wil Myers ready to take over an outfield spot in 2013.

Conclusion
If both the Royals and Mariners are ready to make a bold move, the two teams match up pretty well for Gordon. What may hold up a deal like this is the time table Moore sees for his club. If he's hell bent on making noise in '13, Gordon isn't going anywhere and they'll take their chances on the free agent market and by offering trades that do not include any of their top few major leaguers.

If the goal is a window starting in 2014, acquiring near-ready prospects with upside and probability could fill a lot of holes, including starting pitching and second base. All specific trade scenarios are unlikely, and this one is no different, but the long-term plans of both clubs will dictate.

offseason-target:-alex-gordon

Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: iheartfelix on 11-07-2012 19:37:40
Yes please!

If they offered Gordon for Walker and Franklin I would take it. Walker has all the upside in the world, but is still a year+ away and carries the inherent risk of a pitcher. I like Franklin a lot too, but unless he can stick at SS the M's might end up looking to move him anyway with Ackley, Seager, Romero, and Miller creating a possible log jam at 2B.

2. By: titans12 on 11-07-2012 19:39:38
Gordon would be the perfect fit for our team. If we could get him for Paxton Franklin Ramirez and sign Pagan we would have a solid lineup.

1 Pagan CF
2 Ackley 2B
3 Gordon LF
4 Montero DH
5 Seager 3B
6 Smoak 1B
7 Jaso C
8 Saunders RF
9 Ryan SS

3. By: Tpatt253 on 11-07-2012 23:48:30
good write up here, i think all the points are hit. pretty safe to assume royals are going to look into trading hitting for pitching. i cant imagine they could get help in pitching dealing butler who makes alot more sense for them to part with.

seems like KC would have to REALLY love our SPs to deal gordon.

4. By: Tpatt253 on 11-08-2012 00:04:04
edit...i think KC CAN get valuable pitching help from butler who seems much easier to part with.

5. By: docsmith on 11-08-2012 03:59:33
I had thought this was one of the guys I'd be willing to go all in for....but his age is troubling me. He is in his peak now...matter of fact, age 29 is starting the back side of his peak. Superstars have broad arcs to their peaks. Look at his numbers, my concern is that he is a classic "peak year" player who is really good from 27-29/30 yrs old, and then tails off, sometimes dramatically. Also, those peak years don't necessarily line up with the rest of the M's. So we get 1-2 really good years for....Walker, AND xxx or Paxton, Franklin AND xxx....

I don't want to over value prospects....but this one is causing me a lot more concern than I thought it would.

BTW...a few years ago, when the Angels were dominating the West, I looked at their average player age for each year they were good. Each time their average player age was consistently in the 27-29 range.

6. By: maqman on 11-08-2012 11:37:37
Gordon is a high value piece and he will indeed cost a lot of potential to get. I suppose it just comes down to who wants who and how much. I don't see Butler as a fit as we have plenty of DH types already. Moustakas is interesting and would be less expensive and probably more available than Gordon. He put up 3.5 fWAR this year. The value of 1 WAR is most likely going up the next few years with all the new media money in the game. I'm guessing it will be close to $6MM after this off season than $5MM.

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