| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-07-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities. There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.
Previously published reports:
Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew | Kyle Lohse | Carlos Gonzalez
Todd Frazier | Zack Greinke | Allen Craig
Now, Chase Headley
What Chase Headley brings
Headley is an accomplished switch hitter with improving power and an above-average hit tool. He just posted career power numbers in 2012 with 31 long balls and 31 doubles while playing half his games at Petco Park, a very Safeco-like ballpark, although it's been tougher on left-handed batters than right-handed batters. Headley being a switch hitter spent the majority of time in the batter's box as a lefty and still produced like an all-star.
His defense at third base is solid and he even swiped 17 bases for the second time in three years. Considering his age, Headley may not be done progressing at the plate, or in the field with one more small push toward stardom possible, especially with the Padres following suit of the Mets and Mariners in their plans to bring in the outfield fences.
Contract
Headley is slated for a raise via arbitration this winter and will be eligible one final time after 2013 before qualifying for free agency. Since he'll be 30 years of age at that point, a long-term extension is likely in the best interest of club and player, and there has been some buzz about a contract since the July trade deadline came and went.
After earning $3.475 million in 2012, Headley is likely to surpass $7 million for next year and that number could reach the $12-13 million range for 2014. The salaries aren't deterring for either the Padres or a club interested in acquiring Headley.
Trade Cost
Two words: very expensive. As stated above, Headley's payroll hit isn't a problem and the Padres lack an abundance of run producers that might otherwise make him a trade chip. Having said that, his value may never be higher and GM Josh Byrnes may get an offer he can’t refuse.
The Friars do not lack starting pitching prospects, but they could use a future shortstop or second baseman (Nick Franklin-Kyle Seager-Dustin Ackley-Brad Miller?) plus a big-league ready starter and reliever.
The big issue here is the M's and Padres may be a match, but probably not the best match. If Headley is available, clubs such as the Orioles, Angels, A's, Phillies, White Sox and Yankees could all show strong interest and may have pieces that fit San Diego's needs.
Why would Seattle?
Headley's presence might mean Seager or Ackley is traded, possibly even in the trade package with the Padres. If it's Ackley, whom the Padres wanted in the 2009 Draft, Seager would likely shift to second base full-time to open up the hot corner for Headley. There is an overall net gain with this alignment, since Headley is probably going to produce more than Ackley in 2013, though there is a salary increase and possibly a slight defensive dip around the infield.
Headley fits into the lineup anywhere from No. 3 to No. 5, depending on the makeup of the rest of the roster, and his ability to hit from both sides of the plate could allow skipper Eric Wedge to stick with similar lineups on a regular basis.
Why would San Diego?
The Padres appear to be in a similar situation as are the Mariners -- maybe a year or two from exploding and may start spending some money now -- further suggesting the two clubs don't match up well in a trade for Headley.
If the Mariners were willing to include two middle infielders -- Franklin, Miller, Ackley, Seager -- plus one of their top four pitching prospects and another top 10 prospect, perhaps Stefen Romero, or a big-league ready starter such as Erasmo Ramirez, Byrnes might be willing to listen. That's a pretty pricey package -- more than I'd be willing to give up for Headley -- but it'd probably take something to that level to get the Padres to consider it.
Conclusion
It's my opinion that if Headley is moved it will be for a young, frontline starter with some big-league experience but a year or more from arbitration eligibility, plus a bat that could eventually replace some of Headley's production, even if it's not right away.
The Mariners don't have that, so it's not likely they get deep into talks with the Padres. Of course, as I type this, Jack Zduriencik could be penning an email or text to Byrnes finalizing a trade for Headley, so while the chances aren't good, anything is possible.
offseason-target:-Chase-Headley
Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: jgstecker on 11-07-2012 13:49:47 I think there's real potential here, but a lot depends on where the Padres new ownership sees the franchise. Seattle needs to start winning more ASAP, but SD may have a little more time to grow. Seager, Franklin, and Maurer would be my best offer. It's hard to imagine them getting much better from anyone else. I might work on them for Edinson Volquez if they're really going to rebuild. Nick Hundley would've been an interesting fit, except for, oops on Yasmani Grandal. Kyle Blanks would be intriguing Smoak insurance if the Padres have tired with him yet. SD could probably find useful employment for Figgins on their bench if Seattle is looking for a way to gracefully sneak him out of town. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-07-2012 14:56:41 The buzz seems to be that they are where the M's are... want to start making some noise now. Not look at 2015. That makes a match tough, though it's never impossible. |
| 3. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-07-2012 15:58:15 Yeah, that means they'd want MLB ready hitters like Seager and Jaso, and maybe One of The Big Three to go with them. |
| 4. By: Shawnuel on 11-07-2012 17:12:37 For me, this is a case where hindsight is 20/20. Had we approached the Friars about Headley near the all-star break, when his numbers were more pedestrian and Jedd Gyorko was tearing it up on the farm, he possibly could have been had for a reasonable package. Gyorko needs to find a space in their infield and at that point in time, Headley, while decent, hadn't had the breakout the team had been waiting for. Too late now (without giving up a lot). Oh, well. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-07-2012 17:30:36 Shawnuel, That isn't necessarily true -- I'd bet firmly that it isn't. When a player like Headley hasn't exploded yet, and there's no reason to move him (problem in clubhouse, salary getting high, better player behind him on the depth chart ready to go) teams wait until the value goes up, they don't usually sell low, especially teams with lower payrolls. Gyorko is not a future star -- he's not even as good as Headley, even if he maxes out. Teams DID try to get Headley in July. The Padres just weren't selling. |
| 6. By: rotoenquire on 11-07-2012 18:50:45 I agree there is nor reason to deal Headley if anything signing him long term should be there goal. However he has some really good trade value. As does Y. Alonso who could be dealt to make room for Gyorko. Gyorko was a SS before moving to 2B. The Padres drafted him and moved him to 3B. He has some great versatility. His number may be inflated in the PCL. But his power is legit and figures to be an above average player that could have some All-Star years. Gyorko also won the Brooks Wallace award in 2010 for best SS in NCAA Division 1. Maybe the M's could target Gyorko for a young SP. His bat would be an asset for the M's |
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