Prospect Insider - MLB's top 15 young power hitters

MLB's top 15 young power hitters

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-01-2012

The game of baseball has changed drastically over the last 30 years -- more than once. It's gone from a pitching-dominated sport, to a highly offense-driven sport, and is now turning back in the other direction.

What these most recent trends have shown is that there is a sore lack of power hitting in the game. Sure, there are the likes of Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista, and a number of solid power bats such as Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera. There just aren't nearly as many as there was during the previous era.

In the 1990s, we saw three shortstops produce OPS tallies over .900 in Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez. Two of those -- Nomar and A-ROD -- went over 1.000 and slugged more than 30 homers multiple times.

Catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza mashed their way to high MVP finishes, all-star games and enormous contracts.

Times have changed.

In 2000, 47 different players in Major League Baseball hit 30 home runs or more. A year later that total was at 41. In 2010, only 18 players reached that mark, and that jumped only top 24 in 2011.

So, while there are still some good, young power hitters in the game, there are fewer from which to choose. The clubs have more than one of the Top 15 below should feel extremely fortunate.

To qualify, players have to remain 25 or younger through June 30, 2012.

No. 1 | Mike Stanton, RF -- Miami Marlins

Stanton possesses the biggest power grade in all of baseball and began turning that into big-league production in 2010, his rookie season, when he smacked 22 long balls and slugged .507 in 100 games at the age of 20. He continued the onslaught last season with 34 home runs and 30 doubles. The sky is the limit for the right-handed masher, and I almost mean that literally. Reaching 50 home runs is not out of the question for the 6-foot-5, 240-pound beast.

No. 2 | Justin Upton, RF -- Arizona Diamondbacks

Upton received MVP consideration in 2011 after tallying 75 extra-base hits, 31 of them round trippers . He's more than just a slugger, hitting .289 with a .369 on-base percentage to go with the power, plus defense and 21 stolen bases. He could reach the 40-homer plateau more than once during his prime years.

No. 3 | Jay Bruce, RF -- Cincinnati Reds

Bruce has probably left some long balls in the bat early in his career but did hit 32 in 2011 and has exactly 100 in just over 2000 plate appearances. He could certainly take better advantage of his home park in the future and if he does may touch 40 bombs once or twice. Bruce isn't the pure hitter of many of the others on this list, so even if he'd qualify (he won't, as he turns 25 in April) he'd have a tough time holding the No. 3 spot going forward.

No. 4 | Jason Heyward, RF -- Atlanta Braves

Heyward may be one of the more talented players in the game but injuries have held him back in his first two seasons, particularly in 2011 when he slugged just .389 in 128 games. You can certainly make the argument that he belongs lower on this list, but his plate skills and physical prowess suggest a healthy Heyward is among the best bets in baseball to hit 30 homers or more annually, and he makes good contact that should help produce 40-double seasons.

No. 5 | Eric Hosmer, 1B -- Kansas City Royals

Hosmer has a great shot to shoot up this list with a full season in the majors in 2012. He possesses plus raw power and covers the plate well. He can go the other way with smack and has the bat speed and quick hips to make pitchers pay for coming inside. Consistent 30-35 homer seasons may be in his future and he very well could threaten the 40 long ball mark.

No. 6 | Brett Lawrie, 3B -- Toronto Blue Jays

Lawrie doesn't bring the same physical stature to the table the top 5 do, but his strength, bat speed and raw power are not lacking. He generates tremendous torque with a compact swing thanks to quick hands and punishes fastballs all over the strike zone. I wouldn't bet against regular totals of 30 home runs or more and he could total 40 doubles and leg out some triples with his plus speed.

No. 7 | Logan Morrison, LF -- Miami Marlins

Morrison's swing produces searing, high line drives and he's learned to get consistent loft on the ball which is turning some doubles into a homers. He's not likely to be a 40-homer threat, but 25-35 in his prime appears to be a good possibility. He has good plate skills and the swing is consistent.

No. 8 | Pablo Sandoval, 3B -- San Francisco Giants

If anything, Sandoval is ranked a bit lite here, but he did have the hiccup in 2010. He's slugged .550 or better twice in four years and .490 in another. He appears to be on track to remain conditioned, which is his biggest obstacle, and knows how to hit at AT&T Park. Kung Fu Panda is more of a doubles hitter, but has 20-25 homer pop.

No. 9 | Bryce Harper, RF -- Washington Nationals

Harper hasn't even reached Triple-A, but his raw power is second only to Stanton on this list. He's learning to hit and could make his big-league debut in 2012, but he's so gifted in terms of his power swing and the leverage he generates that despite no MLB track record he belongs on this list.

No. 10 | Jesus Montero, C -- Seattle Mariners

Montero has but a few dozen plate appearances in the big leagues and was less-than superb in Triple-A last season but he's strong with a quick bat and an ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark from line to line. If he somehow earns the right to catch full time he may leave some numbers on the bench, but he's destined for some 30-homer seasons and should pile up 30-plus doubles annually, too.

No. 11 | Alex Avila, C -- Detroit Tigers

Avila is a more established bat then a few of those ranked ahead of him, but he's less likely to reach 30 home runs. He's laces doubles regularly, however, and the 19 long balls he managed in 2011 was far from an aberration. Avila won't likely qualify in a year, but he's in his prime now.

No. 12 | Freddie Freeman, 1B -- Atlanta Braves

Freeman has the raw power to rack up 30-plus homer and more than 30 doubles per season and got off to a solid start in 2011 at the age of 21. He's strong and can leave the park to the opposite field. If he maxes out his potential, he could reach 30 home runs, and should move up this list at least a few spots next offseason.

No. 13 | Justin Smoak, 1B -- Seattle Mariners

Smoak has plus power from both side of the plate and despite being more consistent as a pure bat as a right-handed bat, has a perfect swing from the left side in his home park at Safeco Field. He gets good loft as a lefty, though he appears to see the ball a little better from the other side. It'd be a surprise if Smoak didn't top 30 homers in the first several years he reaches 600 plate appearances, and 35 isn't out of reach, either.

No. 14 | Mike Trout, CF -- Los Angeles Angels

Trout struggled a bit in the big leagues in 2011, but he was just 20 and still managed 11 extra-base hits in 135 plate appearances. As he matures, and he's likely to start 2012 in Triple-A, he'll cover the holes the big league arms exposed last season and should annually reach the 20-25 homer range. He's also likely to gather 35-plus doubles and his plus speed and ability to reach the gaps suggests some triples, as well.

No. 15 | Brandon Belt, 1B -- San Francisco Giants

Belt has made believers out of the majority of scouts and most see 20-30 homer power. His swing already generates hard line drives in the gaps and he's not a terrible athlete, so 30-40 doubles is a safe projection. Belt is still getting acclimated to big-league pitching, but he'll likely stay on this list through 2013 when he no longer qualifies due to age.

Also among those considered: Buster Posey, C -- San Francisco Giants; Ike Davis, 1B -- New York Mets; Anthony Rizzo, 1B -- Chicago Cubs; Travis Snider, OF -- Toronto Blue Jays.

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Comments
The following 13 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: rotoenquire on 02-01-2012 20:24:00
What about I. Davis? Before his injury last year he was on pace for over 30 HR's and a .300 Avg, in his rookie year he had 19 bombs. The dude can flat out rake it! He is one of my favorite guys to watch bat. The NL has some good ones to watch next year. Rizzo, Belt, Davis, Sands, Gamel all have some incredible pop. And Panda is someone I wish the M's could get. but would cost an arm(Felix) and a Leg(Felix) to get. Would S.F. do Panda, Posey for Felix, Olivo? LOL!!!

2. By: eknpdx on 02-01-2012 23:05:44
JAC, was Matt Wieters a thought? Not enough raw power?

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-01-2012 23:41:18
Wieters turns 26 before June 30, so he did not qualify.

4. By: JonathanAicardi on 02-02-2012 00:03:32
Paul Goldschmidt? I have to think a guy who combined for 38 dingers and ISO'd .224 as a rook gets some love. He's 24 this year.

5. By: rotoenquire on 02-02-2012 01:10:21
OOOhhh Goldschmidt.. Monster HR's...

6. By: dewey on 02-02-2012 01:19:26
Moooostakis from KC huge power

7. By: greentunic on 02-02-2012 13:11:55
Nice to see Montero and Smoak up there, especially considering both have at least decent plate discipline and contact ability (Montero more so). Really looking forward to seeing these two guys this year.

I am probaly in the 90th percentile of optimism for the Mariners, but I really expect to see some waves made in the Emerald City this year.

Great write-up Mr. Churchill, and not just because it made me happy with he M's!

Just curious, what do YOU give Montero's power on the 20-80 scale? I've heard 80 before but I assume its more 70-75?

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-02-2012 13:46:41
Moustakas deserved considerations but didn't make the top 10 of any of the scouts I spoke to because they hate his dead-hand start. My first ranking for him was at 13, and he dropped four spots to 17 and I had to cut off the list somewhere.

Golds was on the original 25 with Moustakas but didn't make the cut. Not everyone could be on it. Golds ended at 19.

One scout even told me "if you were going 'raw power' and not 'power hitter,' you get a different Top 10."

And he's right, this wasn't just about who has the most power or the most raw power, but who was the most likely do serious damage with it in 2012.

I was surprised by three things:

Sandoval getting little love until I brought him up. Most scouts didn't think qualified age wise.

Smoak getting love ahead of Golds, Davis, and even Freeman for some.

And lastly, scouts thinking so highly of Montero and Harper that they made the list easily, despite having a lack of MLB experience.

One said "I'd take either one over everyone else on down," when I showed them the final Top 15.

Remember, this was NOT a top 15 Raw Power, or the 15 players 25 and under with the most power. It's the 15 players 25 and under that are the best power hitters. Having a track record counts, having a better hit tool counts, being younger, despite lack of said track record, but having ridiculous upside counts, too.

greentunic,

I'd say Montero's power is a 65-70, which suggests to me that if he maxes out he'll hit 30-35 homers per full season, maybe up to 40 in his prime. Safeco may not allow the 40, but we'll see. He goes the other way a lot, so ...

Only Stanton, for me, gets an 80 grade in the power department among all on this list, and he may be the only one in all of baseball regardless of age.

9. By: DUWORKSON on 02-02-2012 14:33:55
Just another reason why this team fascinate me a lot heading into the 2012 and beyond aside from King Felix. A young power nucleus of Smoak and Montero gives the team a punchers chance...just sayin.

10. By: rjfrik on 02-02-2012 15:12:50
I absolutely love the fact that JZ's two targets to acquire over the last two years were Montero and Smoak and he got them both. Unreal job by him. They should be a fixture in the 3/4 spots for the next ten years.

11. By: k0o56 on 02-02-2012 16:20:41
Great write up, Jason. Thanks as always for the analysis from both you and your connected scouts. Will there be a pitchers ranking in the future? I think that would be really interesting for our organization (or am I overly optimistic?).

12. By: DUWORKSON on 02-03-2012 01:42:07
Jason, Humor me for a second lets say Smoak and Montero bangs-out 30HRS apiece this year and Ackley's batting average is .300 were would the team finish in the divison?

13. By: Autodrafter on 02-06-2012 13:54:12
Any thoughts on Viciedo and why he didn't make this list? He seems to crush the ball and has continued to improve his approach. He looks like a legit 30+ HR guy in that park...

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