| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 08-02-2010 |
TACOMA -- Three years ago Michael Pineda was a 6-foot-5, 190-pound right-hander employing a four-seam fastball with fringe-average velocity, a slider that was thrown too hard too often and a changeup that registered a plus at times, and was his go-to-pitch with two strikes, despite its success being largely due to the inexperienced bats he faced in Class-A ball.
Today, none of the above is true, except Pineda happens to remain right-handed.
Instead, he now stands 6-foot-7 and weighs in at more than 215 pounds -- a good 25-pound add to his lanky frame -- and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball. His slider has slowed down, relative to his fastball velocity, and his changeup has fallen behind a bit.
But, despite all the ugly things going on in the big leagues -- and it is ugly, perhaps as ugly as ugly gets -- there isn't much about which to complain when it comes to Mr. Pineda.
"The changeup is like a splitter," said Tacoma Rainiers pitching coach and former 12-year MLB veteran right-hander Jaime Navarro. "It's 86-87, sometimes 88 or 89."
That's true split-finger velocity, but Pineda throws the pitch with a circle-change grip -- it works well at 86-87 and when he gets the splitter-like sink on the pitch, it works at 89, too. "When the fastball is 98," Navarro continued, "89 is a changeup."
Pineda's taken a gigantic step forward this season, led by the jump in velocity, last clocked in the 91-94 mph range late in 2009. Where did the jump come from? Some of it is due to Pineda's physical development, but his work ethic and maturity might be the biggest reason he's turned into perhaps the top pitching prospect in all of baseball.
"His body language is better, he's growing, and that says a lot," said Navarro. "After last season, we told him to head home to the Dominican Republic, don't do anything (baseball related), nothing, until November. Then start throwing long toss. (After) Two more weeks, then start throwing harder from short. He did everything. he didn't ask why, showed he was dedicated."
That work and dedicated approach is paying off big time, as he showed up in February touching the upper-90s. Such radar readings invoked all kinds of spring training excitement, and Pineda has used the first four months of the season to put himself in position to see the big leagues very soon.
We'll get back to that.
Pineda's arsenal -- four-seamer, slider in the low-to-mid 80s, 85-89 mph split-change -- now has company. It's a good thing four's not a crowd, because here comes another offering.
Pineda is "working on a cutter right now," Navarro said. (He) throws five per game and it's about 90-91 mph."
A cut fastball is one of the easier pitches to learn to throw, partly because it's done with such a similar grip as a fastball, but with more pressure placed on one side of the ball. If Pineda turns this opportunity into another useful pitch, I'm not sure his ceiling is not of ace status. The cutter is often an equalizer against hitters of the opposite hand, such as the manner in which Mariano Rivera or Jordan Danks utilizes it.
"He'll be able to use it against anyone," said an AL scout in attendance to see Pineda's start Monday night. "If you locate that thing, it's nearly hit proof."
Currently, on the 20-80 scouting scale, I would rank Pineda's tool box as follows:
Fastball -- 75
Slider -- 55
Changeup -- 45
Cutter -- 40
Control/Command -- 65
Delivery/Mechanics -- 60
You can see how far he's come from having three average-ish pitches and a track record of injury -- leaps and bounds. In Keith Law's updated Top 25 prospect list Pineda ranked at No. 25. Since those were published, Pineda has roared on, shown a much better slider -- Navarro says "the slider is getting better and better ... might be his best pitch ..." -- and has pounded the strike zone with everything, even flashing a 50 or 55 changeup at times.
The arms ranked ahead of Pineda on the list included Tampa's Jeremy Hellickson, Houston's Jordan Lyles, Texas Rangers lefty Martin Perez, Aroldis Chapman of Cincinnati, Boston's Casey Kelly, St. Louis right-hander Shelby Miller, Rockies southpaw Tyler Matzek, Baltimore's Zach Britton, Minnesota's Kyle Gibson, Philly's Jarrod Cosart and Atlanta's Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. Scratch most of them -- if not all of them -- off the list of better starting pitching talent below big-league baseball.
Personally, I'd certainly place Pineda ahead of Britton, Gibson, Vizcaino and Miller, perhaps even Matzek due to the attrition concern with a teenage kid three-plus years from the majors, and despite liking Hellickson and Lyles quite a bit, I wouldn't trade Pineda for either, and I don't need to think about that question for very long.
Pineda's at 117 innings for the season, just over 20 shy of his career high set in 2008. He threw fewer than 50 frames a year ago due to an elbow injury -- the injury, however, was in the back of the joint, not in the area where UCL/Tommy John surgery would be the end result -- and has built 70 or so innings on top of that prior to Monday's outing.
"We have to keep him under 140," Navarro said. "Then you shut him down."
Plain and simple.
Such a plan might mean Monday will be Pineda's final start in Triple-A Tacoma, whether he heads to the big leagues and starts, is put in the big-league bullpen or heads to the 'pen for the Rainiers remains to be decided.
"We are trying to plan for the future, not just next year," Navarro said. "We're looking long term."
Navarro went on to say that maybe they will start backing up Pineda, pushing an extra day or two between his starts, and that such a concept will begin soon.
But one thing is for sure -- there isn't much time left for Felix Hernandez's future rotation mate. But once he arrives, it's going to be ugly for the opposition a little more often than before he's summoned from the minors.
michael-pineda:-maybe-an-ace
Comments
The following 62 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: safecochatter on 08-02-2010 20:39:41 watched Jeremy Hellickson MLB debut tonight. 7 innings 3 hits 2 runs against a good veteran Twins team. if Pineda is that good,we'll see a staff ace battle going on in Safeco next year. like to see one Safeco start before he's shut down.... |
| 2. By: shemberry on 08-02-2010 20:59:37 This may sound nuts, but what do you think about the M's dealing Pineda this off season? I know he is looking like a potential ace, but with the number of pitching prospects that are lost to injury and his history, would it make sense to deal Pineda and Saunders for someone like Ryan Braun? |
| 3. By: VikingArthur on 08-02-2010 21:23:28 If Pineda is a true #2 next year our rotation of Felix, Pineda, Fister, Vargas and someone is good enough to compete if we had an average offense. Of course... we won't in 2011 but that needs to be the goal. Score 4.5 runs a game with the above rotation and you are in business. |
| 4. By: Juan Valdez on 08-02-2010 22:05:28 Anything new on the unsigned draft picks? |
| 5. By: sg9207 on 08-02-2010 23:18:50 Great stuff JAC. Thank you for the informative writeup. |
| 6. By: Ungnome on 08-02-2010 23:24:08 Whoa! Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Pineda is going to be good, no one doubts that, but annointing him the #2 for 2011 is a bit premature. Dominating AAA does not a #2 starter make. And just because another pitcher can do something does not mean Pineda can do it too. And secondly, can we get off the idea that trading Saunders is a good idea. An above average defensive LFer, LH stick with power and under team control is not something you trade when rebuilding. Nor do you trade a AAA starter with this kinda of ceiling. Stop trying to figure out ways of making this team contenders for 2011. The Mariners dont have the ready talent or payroll to fill this many gaping holes. As well as having a lot of money still tied up in bad contracts. Give the kids a chance to develop and by 2012 I think you will be happy with the outcome. |
| 7. By: The Great Pumpkin on 08-02-2010 23:27:14 He'll have some growing pains when he gets to the big leagues, he's likely a few years away from #1 or #2 status, I would think. Also, it would take more than that to get Braun from the Brewers. He's locked up through 2015 with a team friendly contract. He's not going anywhere. |
| 8. By: shemberry on 08-02-2010 23:39:03 Ungnome, Actually I am not suggesting ways to compete in 2011. The reality is that pitching prospects are fragile at best. Anderson, Nageotte, Heaverlo, etc. were supposed to be part of a rebuilding but injuries did them in. I like Saunders a lot, but I just wonder if it might be a good idea to deal Pineda for a premium young hitter. |
| 9. By: Ungnome on 08-02-2010 23:44:17 Shem, Sorry, I wasnt trying to pick on you. Others have suggested trading away our good, young, cheap talent for veterans. However, with that logic concerning pitchers the M's should have traded Felix and Boston is stupid for keeping Buchholz and Lester. Not to mention every other quality young arm in the majors populating other teams. I will take my chances with Pineda. |
| 10. By: baseballman on 08-02-2010 23:54:09 I cant wait for the day when we get see a Felix-Pineda-Paxton 1-2-3!!! |
| 11. By: shemberry on 08-03-2010 00:34:50 Obviously I wouldn't advocate trading every good young pitching prospect we have, but Felix has been the exception in Seattle. I would love to see Pineda become an ace in Seattle, but he has had a history of injury and pitchers are fragile. If you could get someone like Braun it would be worth looking in to. |
| 12. By: VikingArthur on 08-03-2010 00:52:21 Braun? He of the never walk swing at everything variety? Don't forget that he plays in a joke park... he'd be lucky to hit 30 home runs here. I am sure some of you would trade Saunders and Pineda for Braun. So would Bill Bavasi...of course he would trade Saunders and Pineda for any bum who hit 30 home runs at some point in his career but that is a different story. No trading anyone young...trade the existing veterans for stirrups if need be. |
| 13. By: Shawnuel on 08-03-2010 08:36:23 I've now seen Pineda every time he has started in Cheney and I must say this: If he is under 240 lbs I'll eat my Rainiers cap! |
| 14. By: randallball on 08-03-2010 11:19:52 Great write up as usual, Jason. I'm real happy to see Pineda developing so much, and happy to hear that the M's won't overextend him this season. |
| 15. By: acqb1424 on 08-03-2010 11:34:22 Jason, Were you at the game last night? I was there, wish I would've known if you were and I would've come and said hello. Thanks for the info on the cutter. I was wondering what pitch he was throwing a few times, and now it all makes sense. What do you think the chances are that Pineda, Ackley and Smoak open up next season in Tacoma? My friend and I were arguing about this. I argued that Pineda and Ackley would probably be in Tacoma unless they just have huge spring trainings, but that Smoak would be in Seattle. My buddy argued all three would be back in Tacoma. What is your take on it? How did you think Shawn Kelley looked? Very nice guy as I was able to stop and talk to him for a few minutes. Thanks Jason! |
| 16. By: Edman on 08-03-2010 12:18:48 Sherm, if you're going to worry about potential injury with pitchers, you'd trade them all, when they showed any value. Teams can't operate under that assumption, or they'd fear holding on to any pitcher. Things can always happen. Unless someone has an extreme issue with injury, you simply don't plan on them being injured. You roll the dice and hope for the best. |
| 17. By: shemberry on 08-03-2010 12:36:23 Ed, First, you will notice that there is not an "r" before the m in my name. Second, I am not saying we should always trade young starting pitchers because they could get injured. What I am saying is that it will probably be 3 to 4 years before Pineda is a top flight pitcher at the major league level, he has a history of injuries, and he was not a top 15 prospect 6 months ago. Would it be so terrible to see if we could trade him for a premium bat that is entering his prime and getting expensive for another team? I am more than happy to be patient with Z, I think Bavasi left him a mess, but my fear is that attendance will drop so far that payroll will be severely impacted. Trading a young starting pitcher for a proven bat to speed things up a couple years is not a stupid idea. Braun may not be that guy, but that guy is out there that could help turn this team around. |
| 18. By: maqman on 08-03-2010 13:00:36 Keep Saunders and Pineda, they represent the Ms most valuable commodity - hope. |
| 19. By: DMac33 on 08-03-2010 13:04:25 140 innings this year ... 170 innings next year ... 200 in 2012 ... whatever he pulls the following year and beyond ... seems reasonable. One thing to keep in mind is that not only do you have this kid, but the Mariners also picked up Blake Beaven in the Lee deal as well. It wouldn't shock me if he was in Seattle at some point in 2011 as well given how well he's pitched at the AA level this year in an offensive league like the Texas League. A concern with so many young pitchers about to work their way into the bigs is that there is a definite need then to have multiple starting pitchers and/or long relievers ready because pitch counts will be restrictive and you are going to end up getting a lot of 5 and 6 inning type starts while you monitor work loads. |
| 20. By: shemberry on 08-03-2010 13:15:26 I personally think Pineda is going to be very good, but the M's are on the verge of irrelevance and they may not have time to wait for him to get there. |
| 21. By: Edman on 08-03-2010 13:27:31 Oh come on shem. I know things suck right now, but to think that it's going to continue for some sort of indefinite period of time, is defeatist. You plan for success, not failure. GM's aren't paid to be pessimists. Don't think that Jack will at any point, will plan for failure. Not next year, or the year after, or the year after that. He'll be shedding some bad contracts and is developing some of his own kids. Next year sometime is the perfect time to start Pineda's education. By the time he's developed, the M's will be ready to contend, if not sooner. |
| 22. By: baseballman on 08-03-2010 13:28:11 sherm...lol...now is the time to wait. the stupid thing to do right now would be to make another bedard-type trade and empty whats been being built. who cares if you think they are on the verge of irrelevance, because they actually arent. Z has been building up the farm to bring in a winner and it takes time. This thing should have happened a long time ago, but trades like the one you want have put us in this mess, its not smart |
| 23. By: randallball on 08-03-2010 13:40:22 Beavan's starting in Tacoma today...right now, actually. |
| 24. By: Marco on 08-03-2010 13:43:06 I was lucky to watch Jaime Navarro pitching in Italy for a couple of seasons immediately following his ML years and one thing is sure: he had a great slider and if he says Pineda has a great slider too we have to believe him. |
| 25. By: shemberry on 08-03-2010 13:53:30 You clearly aren't hearing what I am saying. I LOVE what Jack is doing. I think it is great that our farm system is finally being built up, but everyday I see a post somewhere with a projected 2013 lineup featuring Ackley, Smoak, Saunders, Poythress, Franklin, Raben, etc. How long will it take for those guys to be solid major leaguers? I would like to see some of these guys mixed with some more proven hitters. I in no way want another Bedard deal, that is why I didn't suggest a Bedard type of deal. If they could use Pineda and Saunders to get a 25-27 year old All Star hitter, that would be a good move for now and the long term. I am not looking to 2011, I am thinking 2012 and beyond. That may not be possible, but then again it might. |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-03-2010 15:20:50 As for draft picks... I have talked to a few key people in the process of late and get the feeling that Littlewood and Stanek sign, and that Paxton is 50-50 despite not having any greener options. re: Beavan And will probably be part of the group summoned from Tacoma in September some time. |
| 27. By: Edman on 08-03-2010 15:53:51 I really don't get Paxton and Boras, if he doesn't sign. His value will go down even further next season. The money he's losing is substantial, especially considering that he's making it even longer before he gets past his arby years. Some things I'll never understand. |
| 28. By: Jerry on 08-03-2010 16:18:06 Interesting pitching in Tacoma today. Beavan gets the start, and pitched OK besides not being able to get any K's. Varvaro pitches two innings of relief, giving up a single hit and not BBs (his biggest problem thus far). And Lueke finishes the game despite giving up his first AAA run. Is it unrealistic to think that all three could help the M's next season? I think all three are good bets to get a cup of coffee in September. Plus, with Smoak, Ackley, Pineda and Halman in Tacoma, and Moore, Tui, and French coming up to Seattle already, the M's have some good players in the upper levels of the system. This season sucks, but it seems like help is on the way. |
| 29. By: DMac33 on 08-03-2010 16:43:24 Why are you worried about Ks and Beaven per se? He threw strikes, forced the opposition to put the ball into play, and gave his team a chance to win. In all honesty, that's the job of a starting pitcher. Beaven is a 21 year old kid pitching in AAA ... that's pretty impressive in my book. I'm sure that as he matures he'll further refine some of his pitches and be able to up the K marks accordingly. He appears to be a relatively quick learner. I'm more impressed by the fact that he's got 13 BB in 128 IP (going into today) than worried about the K numbers. He's got good velocity and clearly can locate the ball quite well. Do that enough and you'll be hard to hit hard on a consistent basis - regardless of whether or not you strike a ton of guys out or not. |
| 30. By: bunvt on 08-03-2010 17:47:38 "and that Paxton is 50-50 despite not having any greener options." Could it be that maybe there's more to Paxton's past injuries, or possible looming issues that Paxton and Boras know about and are just trying to get as much money as possible before the cat's out of the bag? I know- far fetched possibly, but i don't get the hardball in regards to his contract. |
| 31. By: slamcactus on 08-03-2010 17:50:56 Beaven has fringe velocity, not "good" velocity. And not striking anyone out is a pretty big red flag, especially when he doesn't get grounders. Some righthanded pitchers can succeed barely scrapping 90 without swing and miss stuff, but they're the huge exception, not the rule. Beaven needs to fool guys more than he has so far. |
| 32. By: 1990Coug on 08-03-2010 19:44:02 I don't get Boras either. Yes, he breaks the bank with some of his negotiated contracts. But, throughout the years he has had a lot of players fail as well. I am of the belief now that I do not think it is a good idea to sign Paxton. He has not really pitched meaningful baseball in a year and if he signed now this season is almost over. He would be sent to Arizona over the summer, but that is not the same. |
| 33. By: Adam T on 08-03-2010 22:19:31 Jason, Have you heard anything about the M's having an interest in Jeremy Hermida? I know Zduriencik was interested before - now Hermida is free for the taking. |
| 34. By: baseballman on 08-04-2010 00:22:27 seriously coug? unless he doesnt check out medically, there is no reason not to sign him (unless he wants an unreasonable bonus) why on earth would it ever be a good idea to pass on a LH SP that has TOR ability? it wouldnt.. |
| 35. By: 1990Coug on 08-04-2010 01:45:43 Yes, I know it doesn't make sense and if it came down to it, I WOULD sign him. If the Mariners do, I would be happy. I just have a gut feeling that he is going to be a bust. We all know that most players don't make it, even players that were can't miss. I think the time away is going to hurt him. There is nothing more to it than that, so take it for what it is worth which isn't much. I will also admit that I have a bias against his agent and that could be affecting my perspective. That Jason says it is 50/50 that he signs is incredible. |
| 36. By: rjfrik on 08-04-2010 02:38:38 I know it's blasphemy to say I wish the M's wouldn't of pulled it our last night, but damn, every single team below us won and I thought it would of been a nice time to pick up a game. And of course I lost money on the M's. I'm sure I win it back tonight by picking them to lose. Come on M's tank tank tank!! Cue an Edman response in 3, 2, 1... |
| 37. By: Edman on 08-04-2010 13:21:15 You're pathetic. I don't need to say why, everyone here can read. |
| 38. By: rjfrik on 08-04-2010 14:22:51 LMAO!!! Bait...Line....Sinker!!!! |
| 39. By: rjfrik on 08-04-2010 14:25:20 A monthly PI Subscription 3.99. A yearly PI Subscription 21.99. A lifetime PI Subscription 49.99. Having fun with Edman....Priceless. |
| 40. By: Edman on 08-04-2010 14:51:49 Glad I can keep you entertained. |
| 41. By: John_S on 08-04-2010 15:20:01 Gotta admit that was pretty funny ... |
| 42. By: baseballman on 08-04-2010 15:24:54 wow, how old are you? makin a stupid comment just to get a rise out of another poster? someone should think about growing up... if you want the Ms to lose so badly, why are you even wasting your time on an M site? if i hated a team i sure could find better use of my time than to rag on that team, bet against them and then try and bait other posters... |
| 43. By: John_S on 08-04-2010 16:18:33 rjfrik's been a poster on here for a long time. He's kidding around. It's ok sometimes. If you go back a few years, would you rather have the M's 1)Lose in Oakland and draft Strasburg or 2) Win in Oakland and draft Ackley (reality) Yes Ackley we're hoping is going to be a good player, but we've seen what Strasburg has done and just the thought of having Felix and Stras 1-2 would have been amazing. It was a heated topic back then and some beat writers kept the standings for last place just to know where the M's stood. Now we're in a similar situation and the player is Anthony Rendon. Jason and Chris have talked about the draft and how this draft is supposed to be as good as the Justin Upton, Tulo, Braun draft (we took Jeff Clement) but at this point Rendon is head and shoulders better than anyone else. He's a Longoria type bat and his reviews at 3B have been good. So hoping we better our chances to get Rendon is not necessarily a bad thing. |
| 44. By: shemberry on 08-04-2010 16:40:51 Pretty sure i am going to get ripped for this, but I think I can honestly say that I am glad we got Ackley instead of Strasburg. Dude is amazing, but I know there were some concerns about his delivery leading to arm trouble before the draft, and now we see him having some health issues. Everything I read before and since the draft said that Ackley was a pretty special individual. I remember Gammons compared him to Mauer and Jeter from the standpoint of personality. I think he will hit and I think he will be a star in Seattle. |
| 45. By: safecochatter on 08-04-2010 17:05:13 sweeney to philly for the ol' player to b named later or cash. good for sweeney. hope he makes it to the playoffs! |
| 46. By: Edman on 08-04-2010 17:07:06 Agreed, #45, he's a good guy who deserves that experience to end his career. |
| 47. By: randallball on 08-04-2010 17:52:46 RE: Sweeney, there would certainly be lots of hugging if the Phils won the Series. RE: Ackley/Strasburg, I have seen a few scout types call Ackley a "once in 15-20 years" type bat because of his advanced approach. I love Strasburg, too...but I'll take the everyday player 100 times out of 100. I don't regret that spot, even though Strasburg has already contributed and Ackley is still in AAA and still learning (hopefully) a new position. With the struggles of the current offense and the makeup of the Org as a whole, I think the bat (Ackley) becomes even more valuable. But you know the old saying, "you can never have too much pitching." |
| 48. By: rjfrik on 08-04-2010 18:02:26 I'm just joking, kind of. Edman always rags on me for thinking the way I do, which is perfectly cool. It's his belief and I in know way want to discredit a person's fandom. My fandom is this. I'm a loyal M's fan, have been since I was about 6 years old when I caught three of Griffeys Homerun balls in Salem Oregon when he played against the Salem Angels. I walked up to him and he signed all three and signed a clipping out of the Statesman Journal that had him and his dad sitting in chairs on a front porch. It was the coolest thing I've ever experienced and since that day there was no looking back. But just because my team is the M's doesn't mean I root for them every game. If it's in the best interest of my favorite team to lose, then I root for them to lose. If they are horrible and I look at upcoming draft picks and there's a guy like Strasburg or Rendon or Harper or whoever the unanimous number one can't miss prospect is that can help my club then I will root for them to obtain that pick. There isn't a lottery in baseball, so the worst team gets the best player. Why not root for that player to be a Mariner? Some don't agree with this line of thinking and that's fine, but some do. About the betting. I know this team like the back of my hand, their weaknesses and their strengths. If I see a matchup where another team is going to exploit the M's weakness and the betting line isn't very high, I'm going to make a bet. You should only bet what you know. If you know the M's, so why not make money off of them. I know some people don't agree with this as well, but once again others do. But if you knew me, I would buy all of you guys a few rounds of beers off the winnings over at the Pyramid after the game, if I lived in town. |
| 49. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 18:56:45 I completely agree with you #48. Rooting for the Mariners to lose every game at this point is what any fan who understands the big picture should do. To those saying they are happy they got Ackley rather than Strasburg...are you kidding me? A once in 15-20 year player doesn't hit .280 with no power at age 22-23 in the minor leagues. That is absurdity at its finest. If he is the best bat of his draft I'll be happy. I think he will be a useful player, a borderline all-star perhaps...is he Heyward? No. Is he Longoria? No way. Is he Zimmerman? Harper? No. Maybe the best of a 15-20 WEEK span. |
| 50. By: shemberry on 08-04-2010 19:19:43 #49: Most people thought that Mark Prior was clearly the better choice compared to Joe Mauer as well. How has that turned out? Not saying Ackley is Mauer or that Strasburg is Prior, but it is too early to say which is the better player and there is definitely a possibility that Ackley has the better career. |
| 51. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 19:22:19 I'll grant you that...but it is just as likely as some 9th round pick has a better career as Ackley. Like I said, if Ackley ends up being one of the top five best players from his draft class I would see that a victory and that is all you can expect. This "15-20 year player" thing is where I take exception. |
| 52. By: StandinPat on 08-04-2010 19:28:24 "A once in 15-20 year player doesn't hit .280 with no power at age 22-23 in the minor leagues. That is absurdity at its finest." I agree, your statement is absurd. First of all Ackley is 22, won't be 23 til next year. Second, the base for most of Ackley's value as a hitter is derived from what should become a high average and on base percentage. If he develops additional power, that's when he becomes a perennial All-Star. Third, 6 of his 18 hits in AAA have been extra base hits, that's not the same as "no power". He's a young developing player and the fact that he looks to be holding his own in AAA despite so few professional AB's is tremendously impressive. Saying that it's anything less is simply not having a grasp of the developmental path of young players. |
| 53. By: Edman on 08-04-2010 19:30:54 #49, all I have to say is, get your head out of minor league stats. I'm sorry, does Ackley have even a year under his belt, in the minor leagues? No. Yet, you're expecting him to transition to a new position, and be an offensive force in his first season, yet manages to reach AAA baseball? Yeah, I will agree that Stasburg is the better pick, but putting up lame numbers to support your claim that he isn't a good pick, is beyond logical reasoning. Funny how you talk about Ackley's numbers IN minor league ball, but compare him to Harper, claiming that he's a better player, with NO minor league experience. I hate people who twist statistics as a form of justification, without mentioning the qualifiers and limitations. Let's see, who should someone believe? A guy who's most likely never seen Ackley play on a consistant basis or scouts who make their living assessing skill sets rather than looking at baseball rags and statistics to draw their conclusions. And please, don't talk about what fans should see as the big picture, when your post obviously relates in part, to small sample size to justify your position on Ackley. |
| 54. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 19:31:39 Like I said...he is a good player. I think he can be an All-Star AT SECOND BASE. But this "15-20 year" player is absolutely ridiculous. Let's not forget that they moved him to 2b so his decent bat would provide value. The fact that everyone realized quickly that he was not going to be able to be an impact outfielder tells you that he is not a generational type talent. |
| 55. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 19:35:25 Again..read my post. I have no problem saying he is a good player and will be a fan favorite and probably a damn good Mariner for a long time. The ONLY issue I took was with the "15-20 year" tag. |
| 56. By: StandinPat on 08-04-2010 19:43:08 "The fact that everyone realized quickly that he was not going to be able to be an impact outfielder tells you that he is not a generational type talent. " Where are you getting this information? I never heard anyone say he couldn't be a impact outfielder, the M's just simply realized that its much harder to get an impact bat at 2B than it is in LF. It's the same reason Triunfel is gonna be left at SS until he proves without a doubt he can't stick there, because his bat is much more valuable at SS than at 2B or 3B. Does that mean he has no chance of developing into bat that would be an impact level for a 3B? Absolutely not! It just means if his bat would have played at 3B, but he's your everyday SS, your overall offense is gonna be considerably improved. |
| 57. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 19:48:44 Based on rational thought Pat. Of course his bat is more valuable at 2b. Anyone's bat would be. But it is quite obvious that he is not a prototypical corner outfielder unless your prototype hits .310 with 16 home runs. Nothing wrong with that but not good enough to push the needle at LF. Again... be rational and hope that Ackley ends up being a top 5 2b in baseball. That would be great. And oh yeah...go look at where Zimmerman, Braun, Longoria, Heyward, etc, etc, etc were at age 22. Like I said...good player, maybe a great player. Generational? Silly. |
| 58. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 19:49:49 Yes..I know Heyward isn't 22 yet. He will be a monster at 22..but yeah, Ackley is a 15-20 year player. Ha, Ha. |
| 59. By: StandinPat on 08-04-2010 20:09:29 "Based on rational thought Pat. Of course his bat is more valuable at 2b" That doesn't make sense. If you know he has more value as a 2B, how is moving him there an admission that he couldn't be an impact LF? If Ryan Braun could have handled 3B, the Brewers would have left him there. Not because his bat doesn't profile well in LF, but because his bat has more value at 3B. "And oh yeah...go look at where Zimmerman, Braun, Longoria, Heyward, etc, etc, etc were at age 22. Like I said...good player, maybe a great player. Generational? Silly." I don't know what that scout actually said, but the post was "I have seen a few scout types call Ackley a "once in 15-20 years" type bat because of his advanced approach". I don't know if they meant just the approach or the overall package, but on the approach portion of it, career minor league K:BB numbers for those players; Zimmerman 41:17 Braun 151:70 Longoria 159:96 Heyward 138:105 Ackley 52:67 His approach at the plate absolutely blows any of those other player's out of the water. Certainly, all of those guys have more raw power, but none of those guys can play 2B either. I think Ackley is gonna be a lot of peoples favorite Mariner real soon, and for a real long time. |
| 60. By: Chris Crawford on 08-04-2010 21:09:22 Wow, there are some many things to comment on in this thread that I don't know where to start. First, regarding fan cards -- there's no manual on how to be a good fan. Bandwagon fans are annoying and frustrating, minus that -- rooting for the M's to lose in the long run has its pluses and minuses, but doesn't define if you're a good fan or not. Never has, never will. The M's moved Dustin Ackley to second-base from the outfield because they saw a chance to capitalize on a position that's very very hard to find impact bats at. It has NOTHING to do with his ability to hit or what he would provide in the outfield. Does Ackley's lack of power in the minor-leagues mean nothing? No --had he shown some pop to go with the plus plus on-base skills he would be in the majors right now. But that's pretty much it, it's certainly not the hindrance some of you are making it out to be. Finally, Michael Pineda is good. |
| 61. By: randallball on 08-04-2010 21:11:05 Guys, I have been doing some very extensive Mariners web research because of a personal endeavor of mine over the past 4-5 weeks and I saw the "best of x # of years" thing mentioned 3 or 4 times. Of course, I made no note of where I saw it or who said it, and now I can't find it. Regardless, my point stands that if given the choice, I would rather err on the side of taking the best position player. They may make me in the minority, but that's my stance. And Ackley's "best case scenario" upside has been mentioned as Chase Utley with slightly less power several times. I doubt he'll reach that level of awesomeness, but that is the type of potential that he is viewed to have. |
| 62. By: rjfrik on 08-05-2010 01:02:48 Ackley is going to be VERY VERY good. Think Brandon Phillips with WAY better on base percentage and average. That right there will make him the best 2nd basemen in the league in a few years. Mark it down. He will be great. |
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