|By Jason A. Churchill||By 08-10-2012|
|1. By: Rudolf on 08-10-2012 18:30:35|
I am so happy you wrote this about Maurer! He's had some super impressive outings lately. It's nice to put a detailed scouting report with his box scores. Thanks, JAC.
|2. By: jsmitty on 08-10-2012 18:56:56|
Thanks for the update Jason. With the big three, Maurer, and Erasamo Ramirez our startng pitching depth in the upper minors appears strong.
I agree with you about Zunino. Marder and Proscia started in High A. Miller and Hicks started in full season. Doesn't make much sense to me to keep Zunino in Everett this long.
|3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-10-2012 19:30:01|
I'm OK with it, as long as he gets to Jackson for the postseason.
|4. By: Juan Valdez on 08-10-2012 20:42:59|
Does Anthony Fernandez make five?
|5. By: dawgncarolina on 08-10-2012 22:10:22|
Fernandez is a backend guy, at best. If you want a #5 I'd say it's Erasmo.
|6. By: Juan Valdez on 08-10-2012 22:42:16|
It's good to know that we have such predictive power with our prospects that we can determine their ceiling with such absolute certainty.
|7. By: Juan Valdez on 08-10-2012 23:27:35|
Speaking of Maurer, he got pulled tonight after 3.2 innings. It doesn't look like he was in trouble though. His line is pretty solid. Hopefully they're just limiting his innings.
|8. By: zrininger on 08-10-2012 23:48:29|
Do you expect to see Zunino in the AFL this year? Any idea on who else might be there?
|9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 00:50:19|
Maurer had just hit 80-plus pitches and was laboring.
I do not expect that. I have heard Catricala and Carson Smith are headed to AFL.
|10. By: maqman on 08-11-2012 11:38:36|
It's good to see Maurer doing so well, also Walker and Paxton getting back on course again. Zunino is wasting his time in Everett, he needs to be challenged and not just rack up numbers. Hopefully he'll get some AFL time during the off season. If you haven;t looked you might like the numbers the new hands Z landed before the trade deadline are putting up in our system.
|11. By: jccl218 on 08-11-2012 12:27:06|
By any chance, will you be doing a profile on Jack Marder in the future? His numbers are likely inflated due to being in HD, but he definitely looks to be a solid MLB prospect for the M's. Between him and Romero, who has the better upside?
|12. By: docsmith on 08-11-2012 13:33:29|
Nice right up. Hopefully Mauer keeps improving.
Sadly, I have reached that time of year. I am starting to look toward next year. Seems to me that our biggest areas where we can improve via trade or free agent are 1B, an outfield spot (RF or LF) and maybe 3B (hopefully Seager takes another step forward and solidifies his spot). I see the bullpen as our best source of trade bait.
What I am coming up with is:
C--Jaso backed up by (Montero)
1B--Open (Smoak-who is on the bench)
RF-- Open/Wells (Thames)
CF-- Saunders (Wells/Guti)
Bench-- Franklin, Smoak, Carp, Guti, and Thames
Starting Pitchers--Felix, Vargas, Hultzen, Open, Ramirez/Beavan (with the other in AAA)
Relief Pitchers--Furbush, Luetge, Pryor, Capps, Kelly and Wilhelmsen
I could see Franklin/Hultzen start the year at AAA, but my current thought is to have Franklin play ~3 times a week backing up 3 positions and then take over SS in 2014. I want Smoak to work it out, so he is another AAA option, but this way he is at least seeing MLB pitching 2-3 times per week. Jury is still out on Thames, he may be the "open" outfielder or subplant Wells. Actually, Smoak/Franklin would probably start the year in AAA to allow an extra relief pitcher until the SPs are stretched out.
Of course, this means DFA'ing Figgins, and letting Liddi go (I believe he is out of options). Also, I view the "open" spots as potential locations for the veteren presence that we've talked about.
So, three open spots--RF/1B hopefully we could two good bats and a back end SP.
That isn't a bad team (assuming some progression from the likes of Ackley, Montero, Seager, etc). I can see 78-86 wins, depending on how things go.
Then one or two of Miller/Romero/Catricala/Zunino hopefully on tap for 2014.
Ok...back to this season.....
|13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 13:51:42|
Reports on Marder, Zunino, Morales, Taylor before the end of the month.
|14. By: marinermutt on 08-11-2012 14:06:50|
Jason, you don't need to do a write up but I would love to hear your thoughts on Mario Martinez in HD. I know the stadium and league play a part but his splits are not too bad. Still doesn't walk much but has shown pretty good power finally.
I know he was a big dollar signing way back when but could he just be a late bloomer or is he just a marginal prospect.
|15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 16:15:21|
Martinez has the tools -- probably has to move to the outfield, though -- but the approach and plate skills still lack.
|16. By: dawgncarolina on 08-11-2012 17:46:18|
"It's good to know that we have such predictive power with our prospects that we can determine their ceiling with such absolute certainty."
LOL. This whole discussion is about pitchers who project as front end or middle of the rotation starters. You asked if Fernandez was one. Why ask the question if you're unwilling to hear the answer?
|17. By: Juan Valdez on 08-11-2012 22:11:43|
I guess my issue is the absolute certainty of your pronouncement that he's a backend guy at best. I don't know what you base that on. It isn't just you though. It seems like people make a lot of pronouncements like that around here. There's this obsession with ranking and classifying these guys and making these projections and I really don't know where this level of omniscience comes from. While I would tend to agree that backend starter is the most likely scenario for this particular player, why so quick to say "at best"? I don't get it. Do you know the player personally? Have you scouted him? Do you know anything at all, for instance, about how coachable he is or even how much he likes the game of baseball? Is he a student of the game or is it just a job to him? There's just so much we don't know about these guys. Do you have insight into his physiology and conditioning habits to know how likely he is to experience a major injury in the next few years?
There's so much we don't know and can't predict about these guys. What I know about Anthony Fernandez is that he's a 6'4" left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. He's 22 years old and this is his sixth professional season, but only his second in full season ball. He's performed pretty well at most stops along the way but not what you would call dominant. Then there's this scouting report from Jason that seems to indicate he has some talent: http://prospectinsider.com/view/scouting-anthony-fernandez/
That's really all I know about this guy. I know he's interesting and that's about it. But I don't think it's a small thing when a 22-year old can perform this well and this consistently at Double-A. It doesn't mean everything but it also doesn't mean nothing. It makes him interesting. If he stays healthy and is coachable and works on his game and keeps improving, he could be something. He could be a major league pitcher! Or, he could get injured and fall off the map. Or maybe he decides that he likes playing XBox more than he likes playing baseball. I don't know and neither does anyone else other than maybe the few people that know him best - his teammates, coaches, friends, etc.
Okay, that's all I have to say for now.
|18. By: jsmitty on 08-11-2012 22:24:43|
If Zunino isn't promoted asap, Jack Z isn't doing his best. There's a chance the kid could be helping the big club at some point next year. It's hard to gauge where Zunino's development is when the he's playing at the wrong level.
|19. By: Edman on 08-11-2012 23:12:35|
Wow, the guy who was a key part in drafting and developing guys like Braun, Fielder and Hart, suddenly isn't doing his best, because someone on the internet says so?
I'm gonna go with Jack's expertise, me thinks.
|20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 23:13:50|
While I won't speak for dawg, I will say this:
With a pitcher, specifically, "stuff" says more than anything else, and it's no secret what kind of stuff Fernandez, just for example, has in his arsenal, at least to fellas such as dawg, among others, because they pay attention to those that see the player, those that talk to scouts about the player, things of that nature.
When I write up a player, sure, there is some opinion involved. That is the nature of it all. But with arms, the stuff pretty much is what it is with very, very little, if any, varied opinions.
For Fernandez to profile higher than a 4-5 starter, like I wrote a few weeks back, he'll have to do something most 22-year-old pitchers don't do, which is significantly improve his command or even the stuff.
It really doesn't work that way, and history is the proof in that. For dawg to suggest Fernandez was a back-end starter was far from a stretch, and while nothing is "certain" until it either happens or doesn't happen, there is a high level of confidence in the evaluations of players a lot of times. Fernandez fits that bill.
If AF was throwing 97 but still presently projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter, dawg probably wouldn't have said that because Fernandez would have a lead tool to be a pitcher that profiles as something much more. Thing is, he doesn't.
By no means was dawg out of line in any manner.
|21. By: jsmitty on 08-11-2012 23:36:40|
You make it sound like Jack Z is perfect and has never made a mistake. I'm obviously not saying I know more than Jack Z, but I don't agree with him keeping Zunino in Everett this long.
You sound like a Jack Z Clone Trooper. Now I know when I question Jack Z who'll be coming after me.
|22. By: whereswoody on 08-12-2012 00:42:20|
Braun and Fielder would have been just fine developing on their own in any system.
Jack Z should really read Edman's constant strong insight. Z will give you costanzas job. Cotton or Polyester?
|23. By: jsmitty on 08-12-2012 17:43:19|
I don't think I've ever seen the kind of run that Leon Landry is on. That kid is a freak.
|24. By: Juan Valdez on 08-12-2012 18:59:04|
I don't think I accused Dawg of being out of line or anything like that. If that's how it was interpreted, then I apologize. My objection is with the use of particular language, in this case the words "at best". Those words connote a level of certainty that I don't think is justified by the information available. More importantly, it just isn't very useful. There are too many other variables at play, especially health, work habits, and what's between the ears.
In general I agree with the notion that if this particular player (or any almost any player) makes it to the major leagues and has any kind of a significant career, it will likely be as average-ish performer, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse. By itself, the statistical definition of "average" makes this the most likely scenario. Just getting to the major leagues and staying there is pretty tough. If the player is able to make that happen, it's likely that his performance will rank him somewhere around the fat part of the bell curve. That's the statistical reality for most players at any position. Given that the major leagues are the highest level of play in the sport of baseball, this is nothing to be ashamed of.
I do understand what you're saying about "stuff" though. I get that when a pitcher demonstrates an outstanding attribute, such as a 97 mph fastball or an outstanding curveball, that we can then look at that player and understand that he has a higher ceiling. I would never suggest that this isn't relevant information. I'm simply suggesting that there are other factors at play as well, variables that we can't readily measure, that will influence the outcome for a given individual, which is why, again, I don't think it's useful to make these definitive, carved in stone pronouncements. It just doesn't make sense to me. It isn't useful and it doesn't help.
I don't think I'm saying anything unreasonable here.
|25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-12-2012 19:30:00|
If you disagree, then debate it. The point being made, not the idea of such a statement. But to come here and suggest that such statements are improper or useful is just matter of you missing the point and lacks any constructive depth, whatsoever.
|26. By: Juan Valdez on 08-12-2012 23:21:14|
I'm sorry, what point did I miss?
|27. By: rotoenquire on 08-12-2012 23:53:19|
There are some grumblings within the Mets front office about I. Davis remaining a Met. That L. Duda would be better suited for that position going forward. That too me would make I. Davis a trade candidate. I think he has a ton of talent and is just having a bad year. Would there be a fit trade wise to bring him to the M's this off season? Prospects there way or a change of venue kind of deal with Smoak?
|28. By: Edman on 08-13-2012 11:28:30|
jsmitty, has your faith in Jack been restored, with the news that Zunino is being sent to Jackson?
|29. By: jsmitty on 08-13-2012 11:48:04|
I couldn't be happier. I'll be curious to see how Zunino handles a 3 level promotion.
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