Prospect Insider - Maurer makes four

Maurer makes four

By Jason A. Churchill

By 08-10-2012

We've been talking about The Big Three for more than a year now -- since the Seattle Mariners tabbed left-hander Danny Hultzen in the 2011 Draft -- and despite some struggles by Hultzen, a minor injury to James Paxton and some inconsistencies to Taijuan Walker's season, the trio of future big league impact starters remains intact, with one possible exception.

Their exclusive club may be expanding by one.

Right-hander Brandon Maurer, pronounced just like (Joe) Mauer, first jumped onto Prospect Insider's radar in 2009 and showed more ability when he started off fast last season at Class-A Clinton. He appeared to let the California League eat him alive, suggesting perhaps he was destined for the back end of the rotation or even the bullpen. But the 22-year-old has rebounded well in 2012. Very well.

Maurer, a 23rd round pick in 2008, entered his start Friday night at 8-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 128 innings of work. He's issued 42 walks and allowed just four long balls among the 127 hits.

Those numbers, however, are a bit misleading because Maurer started off slow, posting mediocre numbers through May 26. Since then, Maurer has reeled off a 13-start run that has some scouts talking about a lot more than a No. 4 arm.

Maurer is 6-1 in those starts with a 2.70 ERA and a 76-23 K/BB ratio, and scouts are more than impressed with what they are seeing.

The Costa Mesa, California native gets those results with a fastball in the 91-94 mph range, teasing the mid-90s on occasion, with some arm side run and some downward plane.

He complements the four-seamer with a changeup in the 84-86 mph range and two breaking balls; the slider breaks sharp and late, though it does tend to flatten out at times. The curveball is clocked in the 76-80 mph range with 12-6 break.

One scout recently called the slider a plus pitch "to go with an above-average curveball," though the curveball is a more consistent offering for him right now, and changes the eye level of the hitter. He is capable of throwing both pitches for called strikes, gets some swings and misses with both and often starts out batters with the slider in order to mix things up some.

The changeup is fringy, but much improved from a year ago and is a pitch he believes in enough to use regularly. It's also the pitch that could eventually make the difference between Maurer the No. 4 starter and Mauer the No. 3 starter -- or better.

Maurer is aggressive and will work both sides of the plate with his fastball and throws strikes with it, usually getting ahead. He's adept at keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate, which bodes well for any big-league aspirations.

At 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, Maurer is big and strong but repeats his delivery well, reminding me of John Lackey, and stays on top of his pitches -- which helps create the plane and the ability to avoid the long ball.

Maurer has the stuff of a mid-rotation starter, perhaps better with more development of the changeup and continued improvement with his command, and should start next season in Triple-A Tacoma with a shot to see the majors later in the year.

The one knock on Maurer this season has been how he's handled situations where his defense lets him down or he starts to struggle and allow baserunners. Opponents are batting .266 off him overall, but .298 off him when there are two or three runners on base. This kind of thing generally works itself out with maturity and experience.

Mike Zunino
Zunino is toying with Northwest League pitching and I still believe he should be in Double-A Jackson by now, and there's still a shot he gets moved there sometime in the next few weeks. The timing of it isn't all that important if he spends the postseason there the way Nick Franklin did two years ago.

Franklin spent a whole game with West Tennessee in the regular season before the playoffs in 2010 and then started the 2011 season at Advanced-A High Desert before heading back to the Southern League in June.

Zunino could follow a similar path, though I doubt he sees High Desert in 2013. I do not anticipate more than a September call-up for Zunino next year, if that, but his performance can dictate his MLB ETA to a certain extent.

maurer-makes-four

Comments
The following 29 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Rudolf on 08-10-2012 18:30:35
I am so happy you wrote this about Maurer! He's had some super impressive outings lately. It's nice to put a detailed scouting report with his box scores. Thanks, JAC.

2. By: jsmitty on 08-10-2012 18:56:56
Thanks for the update Jason. With the big three, Maurer, and Erasamo Ramirez our startng pitching depth in the upper minors appears strong.

I agree with you about Zunino. Marder and Proscia started in High A. Miller and Hicks started in full season. Doesn't make much sense to me to keep Zunino in Everett this long.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-10-2012 19:30:01
I'm OK with it, as long as he gets to Jackson for the postseason.

4. By: Juan Valdez on 08-10-2012 20:42:59
Does Anthony Fernandez make five?

5. By: dawgncarolina on 08-10-2012 22:10:22
Fernandez is a backend guy, at best. If you want a #5 I'd say it's Erasmo.

6. By: Juan Valdez on 08-10-2012 22:42:16
It's good to know that we have such predictive power with our prospects that we can determine their ceiling with such absolute certainty.

7. By: Juan Valdez on 08-10-2012 23:27:35
Speaking of Maurer, he got pulled tonight after 3.2 innings. It doesn't look like he was in trouble though. His line is pretty solid. Hopefully they're just limiting his innings.

8. By: zrininger on 08-10-2012 23:48:29
Jason,
Do you expect to see Zunino in the AFL this year? Any idea on who else might be there?

9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 00:50:19
Juan,

Maurer had just hit 80-plus pitches and was laboring.

zrininger,

I do not expect that. I have heard Catricala and Carson Smith are headed to AFL.

10. By: maqman on 08-11-2012 11:38:36
It's good to see Maurer doing so well, also Walker and Paxton getting back on course again. Zunino is wasting his time in Everett, he needs to be challenged and not just rack up numbers. Hopefully he'll get some AFL time during the off season. If you haven;t looked you might like the numbers the new hands Z landed before the trade deadline are putting up in our system.

11. By: jccl218 on 08-11-2012 12:27:06
By any chance, will you be doing a profile on Jack Marder in the future? His numbers are likely inflated due to being in HD, but he definitely looks to be a solid MLB prospect for the M's. Between him and Romero, who has the better upside?

Thanks.

12. By: docsmith on 08-11-2012 13:33:29
Nice right up. Hopefully Mauer keeps improving.

Sadly, I have reached that time of year. I am starting to look toward next year. Seems to me that our biggest areas where we can improve via trade or free agent are 1B, an outfield spot (RF or LF) and maybe 3B (hopefully Seager takes another step forward and solidifies his spot). I see the bullpen as our best source of trade bait.

What I am coming up with is:

C--Jaso backed up by (Montero)
1B--Open (Smoak-who is on the bench)
2B--Ackley (Franklin)
3B--Seager (Franklin)
SS--Ryan (Franklin)
RF-- Open/Wells (Thames)
CF-- Saunders (Wells/Guti)
LF--Wells/Open (Carp/Guti)
DH--Montero (Smoak/Carp)

Bench-- Franklin, Smoak, Carp, Guti, and Thames

Starting Pitchers--Felix, Vargas, Hultzen, Open, Ramirez/Beavan (with the other in AAA)

Relief Pitchers--Furbush, Luetge, Pryor, Capps, Kelly and Wilhelmsen

I could see Franklin/Hultzen start the year at AAA, but my current thought is to have Franklin play ~3 times a week backing up 3 positions and then take over SS in 2014. I want Smoak to work it out, so he is another AAA option, but this way he is at least seeing MLB pitching 2-3 times per week. Jury is still out on Thames, he may be the "open" outfielder or subplant Wells. Actually, Smoak/Franklin would probably start the year in AAA to allow an extra relief pitcher until the SPs are stretched out.

Of course, this means DFA'ing Figgins, and letting Liddi go (I believe he is out of options). Also, I view the "open" spots as potential locations for the veteren presence that we've talked about.

So, three open spots--RF/1B hopefully we could two good bats and a back end SP.

That isn't a bad team (assuming some progression from the likes of Ackley, Montero, Seager, etc). I can see 78-86 wins, depending on how things go.

Then one or two of Miller/Romero/Catricala/Zunino hopefully on tap for 2014.

Ok...back to this season.....

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 13:51:42
Reports on Marder, Zunino, Morales, Taylor before the end of the month.

14. By: marinermutt on 08-11-2012 14:06:50
Jason, you don't need to do a write up but I would love to hear your thoughts on Mario Martinez in HD. I know the stadium and league play a part but his splits are not too bad. Still doesn't walk much but has shown pretty good power finally.

I know he was a big dollar signing way back when but could he just be a late bloomer or is he just a marginal prospect.

Thanks,

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 16:15:21
Martinez has the tools -- probably has to move to the outfield, though -- but the approach and plate skills still lack.

16. By: dawgncarolina on 08-11-2012 17:46:18
"It's good to know that we have such predictive power with our prospects that we can determine their ceiling with such absolute certainty."

LOL. This whole discussion is about pitchers who project as front end or middle of the rotation starters. You asked if Fernandez was one. Why ask the question if you're unwilling to hear the answer?

17. By: Juan Valdez on 08-11-2012 22:11:43
Hey Dawg,

I guess my issue is the absolute certainty of your pronouncement that he's a backend guy at best. I don't know what you base that on. It isn't just you though. It seems like people make a lot of pronouncements like that around here. There's this obsession with ranking and classifying these guys and making these projections and I really don't know where this level of omniscience comes from. While I would tend to agree that backend starter is the most likely scenario for this particular player, why so quick to say "at best"? I don't get it. Do you know the player personally? Have you scouted him? Do you know anything at all, for instance, about how coachable he is or even how much he likes the game of baseball? Is he a student of the game or is it just a job to him? There's just so much we don't know about these guys. Do you have insight into his physiology and conditioning habits to know how likely he is to experience a major injury in the next few years?

There's so much we don't know and can't predict about these guys. What I know about Anthony Fernandez is that he's a 6'4" left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. He's 22 years old and this is his sixth professional season, but only his second in full season ball. He's performed pretty well at most stops along the way but not what you would call dominant. Then there's this scouting report from Jason that seems to indicate he has some talent: http://prospectinsider.com/view/scouting-anthony-fernandez/

That's really all I know about this guy. I know he's interesting and that's about it. But I don't think it's a small thing when a 22-year old can perform this well and this consistently at Double-A. It doesn't mean everything but it also doesn't mean nothing. It makes him interesting. If he stays healthy and is coachable and works on his game and keeps improving, he could be something. He could be a major league pitcher! Or, he could get injured and fall off the map. Or maybe he decides that he likes playing XBox more than he likes playing baseball. I don't know and neither does anyone else other than maybe the few people that know him best - his teammates, coaches, friends, etc.

Okay, that's all I have to say for now.

18. By: jsmitty on 08-11-2012 22:24:43
If Zunino isn't promoted asap, Jack Z isn't doing his best. There's a chance the kid could be helping the big club at some point next year. It's hard to gauge where Zunino's development is when the he's playing at the wrong level.

19. By: Edman on 08-11-2012 23:12:35
Wow, the guy who was a key part in drafting and developing guys like Braun, Fielder and Hart, suddenly isn't doing his best, because someone on the internet says so?

I'm gonna go with Jack's expertise, me thinks.

20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-11-2012 23:13:50
Juan,

While I won't speak for dawg, I will say this:

With a pitcher, specifically, "stuff" says more than anything else, and it's no secret what kind of stuff Fernandez, just for example, has in his arsenal, at least to fellas such as dawg, among others, because they pay attention to those that see the player, those that talk to scouts about the player, things of that nature.

When I write up a player, sure, there is some opinion involved. That is the nature of it all. But with arms, the stuff pretty much is what it is with very, very little, if any, varied opinions.

For Fernandez to profile higher than a 4-5 starter, like I wrote a few weeks back, he'll have to do something most 22-year-old pitchers don't do, which is significantly improve his command or even the stuff.

It really doesn't work that way, and history is the proof in that. For dawg to suggest Fernandez was a back-end starter was far from a stretch, and while nothing is "certain" until it either happens or doesn't happen, there is a high level of confidence in the evaluations of players a lot of times. Fernandez fits that bill.

If AF was throwing 97 but still presently projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter, dawg probably wouldn't have said that because Fernandez would have a lead tool to be a pitcher that profiles as something much more. Thing is, he doesn't.

By no means was dawg out of line in any manner.

21. By: jsmitty on 08-11-2012 23:36:40
Edman,

You make it sound like Jack Z is perfect and has never made a mistake. I'm obviously not saying I know more than Jack Z, but I don't agree with him keeping Zunino in Everett this long.

You sound like a Jack Z Clone Trooper. Now I know when I question Jack Z who'll be coming after me.

22. By: whereswoody on 08-12-2012 00:42:20
Braun and Fielder would have been just fine developing on their own in any system.

Jack Z should really read Edman's constant strong insight. Z will give you costanzas job. Cotton or Polyester?

23. By: jsmitty on 08-12-2012 17:43:19
I don't think I've ever seen the kind of run that Leon Landry is on. That kid is a freak.

24. By: Juan Valdez on 08-12-2012 18:59:04
I don't think I accused Dawg of being out of line or anything like that. If that's how it was interpreted, then I apologize. My objection is with the use of particular language, in this case the words "at best". Those words connote a level of certainty that I don't think is justified by the information available. More importantly, it just isn't very useful. There are too many other variables at play, especially health, work habits, and what's between the ears.

In general I agree with the notion that if this particular player (or any almost any player) makes it to the major leagues and has any kind of a significant career, it will likely be as average-ish performer, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse. By itself, the statistical definition of "average" makes this the most likely scenario. Just getting to the major leagues and staying there is pretty tough. If the player is able to make that happen, it's likely that his performance will rank him somewhere around the fat part of the bell curve. That's the statistical reality for most players at any position. Given that the major leagues are the highest level of play in the sport of baseball, this is nothing to be ashamed of.

I do understand what you're saying about "stuff" though. I get that when a pitcher demonstrates an outstanding attribute, such as a 97 mph fastball or an outstanding curveball, that we can then look at that player and understand that he has a higher ceiling. I would never suggest that this isn't relevant information. I'm simply suggesting that there are other factors at play as well, variables that we can't readily measure, that will influence the outcome for a given individual, which is why, again, I don't think it's useful to make these definitive, carved in stone pronouncements. It just doesn't make sense to me. It isn't useful and it doesn't help.

I don't think I'm saying anything unreasonable here.

25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-12-2012 19:30:00
Juan,

If you disagree, then debate it. The point being made, not the idea of such a statement. But to come here and suggest that such statements are improper or useful is just matter of you missing the point and lacks any constructive depth, whatsoever.

26. By: Juan Valdez on 08-12-2012 23:21:14
I'm sorry, what point did I miss?

27. By: rotoenquire on 08-12-2012 23:53:19
Jason,

There are some grumblings within the Mets front office about I. Davis remaining a Met. That L. Duda would be better suited for that position going forward. That too me would make I. Davis a trade candidate. I think he has a ton of talent and is just having a bad year. Would there be a fit trade wise to bring him to the M's this off season? Prospects there way or a change of venue kind of deal with Smoak?

28. By: Edman on 08-13-2012 11:28:30
jsmitty, has your faith in Jack been restored, with the news that Zunino is being sent to Jackson?

29. By: jsmitty on 08-13-2012 11:48:04
Edman,

I couldn't be happier. I'll be curious to see how Zunino handles a 3 level promotion.

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