| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 06-08-2012 |
Yes, I'm well aware of the fact that the Seattle Mariners have three pretty good pitching prospects within a year or so of the big leagues. I'm also aware that one of them is likely to debut in The Show in 2012 and that the club has other young arms that can handle the back end of the starting rotation while the top prospects settle into roles in the No. 2 and 3 spots behind Felix Hernandez.
Jason Vargas, however, is still necessary, and I believe the club should, if they haven't already, seriously explore a multi-year extension for the southpaw. He's not due for free agency until after next season, but his arbitration salary is likely to hit the $7 million range this coming winter.
I've talked quite a bit for quite a while about trading Vargas by this summer's July 31 deadline, but there are two reason why I believe it's in the best interest of the club to re-sign Vargas, rather than trading him.
Let's talk about those reasons.
The Market
The trade market is likely to offer Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Wandy Rodriguez, Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders and perhaps even Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Brandon McCarthy and Erik Bedard. In other words, Vargas is not going to be among the top few arms available -- he wouldn't even be among the top few left-handers.
The return for Vargas has little chance to make an impact and the Mariners have plenty of back-end starters, bench players and relief pitchers. They need players with upside, or proven commodities in the realm of offensive production.
If there is a starting caliber third baseman or corner outfielder that a club is willing to sacrifice, so be it, trade Vargas for that player. Let's be honest, though -- there isn't, and clubs don't trade premium prospects for No. 3/4 starting pitchers, and Vargas is not a front line pitcher.
Value
Vargas is earning $4.85 million this season and will not be a free agent until after 2013, so he's not a rental, but his future salary is a detriment to his trade value.
A $7-8 million salary isn't completely out of line for him, anyway, so the money isn't enough to move him for a lesser package than what the M's received for Doug Fister last July, and there's little chance of that happening.
Vargas is reliable, he's healthy, he's in his prime and he's a left-handed fly ball pitcher, making him worth more to Seattle than most other teams in the league.
Supporting Felix, Hultzen, Walker
Sometime in 2014, the Seattle Mariners are likely to stroll out a starting rotation that includes Felix Hernandez, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker. James Paxton may join them. Expecting the young arms, however, to cover 200-plus innings from the get-go is too much, and the Mariners aren't going to be irresponsible with their young pitchers. Hultzen may be ready for that by then, but Paxton may not and Walker certainly won't. The team will need someone to pitch and pitch fairly well for them behind Hernandez and the free agent market is not the place to get such assistance.
Vargas, in a down year, is good for 180-190 innings of at least average performance, and considering the likely makeup of the rest of the rotation, having that veteran presence in the middle could prove to be quite necessary.
By the time a Vargas extension would expire, The Big Three -- at least two of them, anyway -- will almost certainly be ready to handle 30-33 starts and a legitimate full-season workload.
Giving Vargas three years and $21-24 million assures the Mariners of a solid value on a left-handed starting pitcher likely to cover 550-630 innings over the life of the deal, helping them avoid situations that could threaten their young arms or put too much on a bullpen that also figures to be young.
Vargas, rather than a free agent of similar stature, should get a three-year deal -- taking him through the '15 season and buying out a year of arbitration and two years of free agency.
m\'s-should-extend-jason-vargas
Comments
The following 49 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Rudolf on 06-08-2012 18:21:18 Couldn't agree more. I've been thinking this for weeks. Thanks, JAC! |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-08-2012 18:22:57 I've been wondering how readers would react to this. One in the "for" column. |
| 3. By: Hailcom on 06-08-2012 18:32:29 You make a good case for this, Jason. A great return for a trade this summer does seem remote and Vargas has value in Seattle. Plus it has the added benefit of keeping a well-liked player through the rest of this "rebuilding" season. Good for the fans and the team, I think. |
| 4. By: John_S on 06-08-2012 18:49:25 I agree as well. He offers greater value to the M's versus trading for prospects. |
| 5. By: Jerry on 06-08-2012 18:52:51 This is a good argument. I think the M's should field calls on everyone who is not part of the future, but I agree that Vargas probably doesn't have a ton of value. In fact, I don't see any players who are likely to be traded that have a lot of value. Figgins will get dumped. League is likely to be traded, but won't fetch a premium prospect. Same thing applied to Millwood. Olivo? Not much value. And that's about it. I don't see them shopping Ichiro (and honestly think it would be best for the club to let him play out this year and give him a hero's goodbye at the end of the season). I'm hoping this is the last year of selling at the deadline, but I don't see us landing much talent back this time. If someone wants to overpay for Vargas, that would be great. It's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility. But the M's don't really need role players. They need cornerstone guys. Thus, I'm hoping that this is the year that the team shifts gears and starts being a bit more aggressive in free agency and in resigning their own guys. Hell, maybe even get into the bidding for Josh Hamilton. We need elite players, not cheap #5 starters. |
| 6. By: outfieldgrass on 06-08-2012 19:00:21 I have been saying this since last season. Just not like you have done here. Vargas is not overpowering and to be honest he is a boring pitcher to watch. However, he gets the job done consistently and is going to give you somewhere close to 200 innings pitched. Our pitching prospect trio of Walker, Paxton and Hultzen are likely to be good pitchers down the road and it would be nice to count on their arrival. They are prospects though and we need a proven guy like Vargas that is going to give us a bit of stability past Felix. |
| 7. By: Edman on 06-08-2012 19:16:42 I've got to agree. The fan mentality right now is "TRADE" any valuable pieces. At some point you have to stop, or you'll be constantly moving parts. If Vargas can be signed for a reasonable amount of money, then it's a safe bet, since even if the big three make it to Seattle, they'll need time to adjust. |
| 8. By: graywilli on 06-08-2012 19:33:12 I'm on board with resigning Vargas as well. We've traded away two of our better pitchers in the last year in Fister and Pineda. We can't continue to trade all our decent pitchers not named Felix. The big three have a promising future, but it won't be over night. Signing him to the contract you suggested would be a good move. On another note. Thanks for all the draft coverage and scouting reports. It was second to none. If you don't have the subscription get it folks! |
| 9. By: brown1981 on 06-08-2012 20:13:30 I definitely agree with the idea of extending Vargas but I also see JMZ taking the first good offer he sees for Vargas but probably not this year. I know he has been very productive for the M's but his skillset is not easily but is fairly replaceable. Erasmo and Carraway could possibly replicate Vargas's production by that time and at literally a fraction of the Vargas price tag but they are not MLB vet's which is also a major factor in a rotation full of "kids". But with that, like Jason said, it is all value which the M's aren't likely to get in return during the season or even the offseason. Possibly next trade deadline when his value may be at the highest possible peak when the SP crop for free agents will be relatively weak. |
| 10. By: rjfrik on 06-08-2012 20:17:41 I agree with you Jason, Our big three won't be ready for lock down rotation guys for three years. Hutlzen probably gets there in a year or two and Walker and Paxton are two to three years out. That means we need valuable arms to fill the rotation while we wait. Vargas is extremely valuable to the M's, more then most teams. And like you pointed out above, we aren't going to get much for him at the deadline. M's are better served to extend him, let him be a consistent rotation guy for us for a couple more years and then trade him when the kids have solidified themselves into the rotation. When the big three are ready to anchor the rotation behind the King, we will be ready to deal Vargas. Until then, Vargas needs to be an Mariner. |
| 11. By: brown1981 on 06-08-2012 20:19:11 By the way Jason, wanna let ya know you put up some great content on here. I don't always agree but it really makes me re-evaluate how I view the M's and their system. But baseball is all in the eye of beholder though right. |
| 12. By: Missthosepilots on 06-08-2012 20:53:35 Very good points. I love the drafts to get the Big Three....but they didn't come with guarantees. Millwood out after 68 pitches? I hope he stays on a roll for both wins and some trade value. |
| 13. By: dewey on 06-08-2012 21:04:03 We had the big 3 Felix,ineda,Morrow and Fister maybe the big four oh yeah we traded them.Yhe guy no one ever mentions a really good LHR Eric Oflaherty he has been solid since we gave him away on waivers.That one hurts. |
| 14. By: dawgncarolina on 06-08-2012 21:45:56 I say shop him. If you get a great offer, move him. If not, keep him. No danger in feeling things out. |
| 15. By: Lailoken on 06-08-2012 21:48:06 I have no quarrel with the arguments posed for why he shouldn't be traded at the deadline & why he is worth extending. Still, when I try to put other pieces of the puzzle into a larger context Vargas doesn't fit in as well. First of all since he isn't a FA after 2012 the club has the ability to trade him in the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. Offloading a pending FA with only a fraction of his salary for the season left is easier than trading a pitcher with multiple years of multi-million-dollar salary. Also, GMZ has shown a penchant for packaging players together to maximize return value. To get further into the bigger picture. The club could still really use a big bat at 3B or LF if one is available. Seager is a nice piece but this club already has it's 2B. If a David Wright is available then I would have trouble arguing with the logic behind pursuing such a big addition. As it stands now when 2014 rolls around the club could be clear of the large contracts for Ichiro, Figgins, League, Vargas, DTFT, Olivo, & Ryan. That extra money will help cover the first arbitration years of Kelley, Jaso, Smoak, Saunders, Carp, & Wells if they all remain but the club overall will be very reasonably situated with a large amount of cost-controlled talent. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ichiro signed a one-year farewell deal for 2013 at this point. In 2014 if the club is showing signs of contention & attendance goes up there could be a lot of money to spend on the few holes. If that's the case then big-money would be better spent on a top of the line starter or a big bat than on Vargas. 2014 C Zunino C/DH Montero (Arb 1 as a super-two) C/DH/LF? Jaso (Arb 2) 1B Smoak (Arb 1) 2B Ackley SS Franklin 3B Seager RF Saunders CF (Brad Miller/Francisco Martinez/Almonte) LF (Carp/Wells/Liddi/Catricala/Morban/Peguero/Robinson/Jones/Blash) Other players that could factor in: Brad Miller (SS or CF?), Francisco Martinez (3B or CF?), Triunfel, Hicks, Proscia, Romero, Marder, Raben, Morla, Choi, Pimentel, Kivlehan, & Ard SP Felix Hultzen Walker Paxton Noesi Others: Ramirez, Maurer, Beavan, Carraway, Elias, Shipers, Landazuri, & Valdivia RP CL Pryor SU Wilhelmsen SU Capps Mid Kelley Mid Delabar Loogy Luetge Long (see extra starters above or extra relievers below) Others: Furbush, Ruffin, Laframboise, Moran, Arias, Carson Smith, Brady Wood, & Hauser That money could be best spent on an elite bat to solidify the lineup. A Josh Hamilton, David Wright, or Hanley Ramirez type in the middle of that lineup above could be the final piece. Currently the M's would pick seventh in the 2013 draft too. |
| 16. By: dawgncarolina on 06-08-2012 22:03:58 NO NO BITCHES |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-08-2012 22:14:18 Lailoken, You can't get a top line starter or bat for 21-24 mil over three years. Haven't been able to do that since 1991. |
| 18. By: zeuswsu on 06-08-2012 23:01:43 A 3 year extension at that price would be about perfect, but I definitely wouldn't give him any longer then that. By then hopefully the 3 amigos would be ready to go. |
| 19. By: dawgncarolina on 06-08-2012 23:03:05 Apologies for the excessive language Jason. Delete if you see fit. Just got fired up there. :) |
| 20. By: marinerforever on 06-09-2012 03:53:07 I swear you have been reading my mind resigning vargas is a must as long as it doesn't xceed 3 yrs 30 you must protect felix in the rotaion. And unless you can pull a casey blake type trade and get your bat you hokd onto him and let the big three settle in over the next year in a half |
| 21. By: frontstreetfan on 06-09-2012 05:15:49 JAC Agreed, Vargas has outplayed his current contract. He's become a much more consistent pitcher and will add to the development of the Settle pitching staff if he can be extended for 2yrs at that price it's a no brainer. |
| 22. By: rth1986 on 06-09-2012 07:41:16 Not that he's an elite bat or what the Mariners need, but Josh Willingham signed for exactly a 3 years and $21 million. I like Vargas and I see what you're saying, but the Mariners have lots of back-end candidates I would rather see get the opportunity: Ramirez, Noesi, Beavan, Carraway - even Iwakuma or Furbush. Not to mention the opportunity to just sign a capable mid-rotation starter for one-year. I'd rather not see the Mariners get locked into a contract for a pitcher, especially a #3/4 type like Vargas. Rather use that money to add bats or for extensions. |
| 23. By: qwerty on 06-09-2012 08:06:01 Speaking of future rosters, saw that M's are considering Seager for the OF. Question, are we at the point of no return on Ackley to the OF? Could we see Seager to 2b and Ackley to OF in th off season? After all, Ackley was moved to 2B to be that rare LH hitting infielder w/ some power (a la Utley). Seems Seager could fill that role. Crazy? |
| 24. By: dawgncarolina on 06-09-2012 08:46:45 Jason, do you know anything about the M's Dominican SS, Angel Jiminez? Looks like he's 17 years old and signed for $225,000 in December. I know it's way too early to care about DSL performance, but he seems to be swinging the bat well, and has already drawn 3 walks. Most importantly to me, on a roster full of SS he's been playing SS everytime he's in the lineup. Probably not a superstar or anything, but he's somebody I'm keeping an eye on at least. Also, any idea on the whereabouts of Ketel Marte, Jose Leal or Victor Sanchez? All three in Arizona? |
| 25. By: Slack on 06-09-2012 11:11:08 I was firmly in the trade Vargas camp but these are convincing arguments. Most importantly for me is keeping Vargas around because the big three won't be ready for 200 innings right away. |
| 26. By: maqman on 06-09-2012 11:18:27 You make a cogent case Jason but I'm not sure I fully agree. I see Vargas as approaching his market value and we have some other potential arms for the rotation beyond the Big 3. To hold him or trade him depends on what is offered in return and if it is perceived to be a salary dump or not. He has earned his paycheck so far for sure, the future is not quite so certain. Your reasoning is valid, I'm just a bit more uncertain. I sure wouldn't complain if they followed your advice. |
| 27. By: Lailoken on 06-09-2012 11:20:35 3 years & 21-24 million won't net a top line starter but by 2014 a lot of salary will be cleared off the books. I wouldn't sweat it if Vargas was extended for that type of deal because he would be tradeable provided he keeps performing. |
| 28. By: short on 06-09-2012 11:21:44 Another factor to consider is the overall value of pitching. The league is seeing run production drop in general, which means that the value of an average-throwing pitcher won't be as high now as it was a few years ago. Teams will start putting a premium on good-hitting position players going forward and there's just no way you'll get a good one for Vargas. You might luck into a hitter by trading for a high-risk / high-reward prospect -- one with some serious holes in his game or an injury history. But to get a "sure thing" like a Montero will take guys with #1 starter upside. |
| 29. By: jkcmason on 06-09-2012 11:23:21 Sorry Jason, but I think it would be a pretty big mistake for the Mariners to resign Jason Vargas. I agree with your valuation of the trade market, and think that the Mariners would likely get very little in return for Vargas. I disagree with your valuation of Vargas' worth to the Mariners. "Vargas is reliable, he's healthy, he's in his prime and he's a left-handed fly ball pitcher, making him worth more to Seattle than most other teams in the league." He is likely to be more productive in Seattle than most other places, but doesn't that make him less valuable to the Mariners? That effectively means that he would be easier for us to replace than a player of the same value to a different team. Even if we don't trade him, paying him $7-8mil when you could replace his value by signing a Kevin Millwood type player is a waste of $6-7mil of salary that the Mariners could use elsewhere. I appreciate the work that you do, but respectfully disagree with offering Vargas anymore money after this season. |
| 30. By: ripperlv on 06-09-2012 11:46:19 If Vargas were indeed our #5 starter, I think we would have a very nice rotation. I don't think we are going to build up our prospect depth at the trading deadline this year unless we package veteran/prospect for prospect. So I do buy your argument JC. But, no doubt JZ will be on the prowl. |
| 31. By: safecochatter on 06-09-2012 12:47:08 By all means, sign him. When the M's have too many mlb ready sp's, that's different. Never agreed with the trade talk earlier this year. We'll see how thin sp gets now... with Millwood going on the dl. Does anyone know if Erasmo Ramirez is getting called up to take Millwood's spot? I know the dl is not official...but nobody leaves a no-no and then makes the next start. |
| 32. By: dewey on 06-09-2012 14:05:09 Why does eveyone say Vargas is a 5th starter he has thrown close to 200 innings and won 19 games on to vert bad teams that dont sound like a 5th starter to me.Someone has to take those innings especially if Jack goes with the kids and wants to protect there innings. |
| 33. By: dewey on 06-09-2012 14:59:14 |
| 34. By: dewey on 06-09-2012 15:00:29 That was meant to say 397 innings and 19 wins on 2 very bad teams the last two years thats better then a 5th starter sometimes stuff doesnt dictate guys spot in a rotation |
| 35. By: 11records on 06-09-2012 15:05:34 So, what would we need to give up to get Erik Bedard? That guy is awesome! |
| 36. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-09-2012 17:19:45 "Also, any idea on the whereabouts of Ketel Marte, Jose Leal or Victor Sanchez? All three in Arizona?" Yes, and Marte actually filled in at Clinton last monght and looked good doing it. went 4-for-14 with 2 walks and threw whiffs. He will go out later this month. |
| 37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-09-2012 17:24:29 "He is likely to be more productive in Seattle than most other places, but doesn't that make him less valuable to the Mariners? That effectively means that he would be easier for us to replace than a player of the same value to a different team. "Even if we don't trade him, paying him $7-8mil when you could replace his value by signing a Kevin Millwood type player is a waste of $6-7mil of salary that the Mariners could use elsewhere. I appreciate the work that you do, but respectfully disagree with offering Vargas anymore money after this season." No. The free agent market costs MORE than re-signing your own guy that isn't FA eligible. Vargas can't negotiate with anyone else. Perhaps as a result, you can get him for closer to the 21 than 24. But a flyball, strike throwing lefty with a plus changeup -- first of all, they don't grow on trees. Millwood does not equal Vargas. Reliability and health are the biggest questions on guys like Millwood. Maybe Millwood doesn't miss a start, but he can't be relied upon for mid-rotation performance for 190+ innings, and he's right-handed. Being lefty at Safeco matters. So if you non-tender Vargas, Millwood, or that type anyway, will be your No. 2 starter next April. That is not a team with a chance to sustain winning streaks, which is what it takes to contend in the American League. So, you can disagree, that is fine and dandy. You happen to be wrong, however. |
| 38. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-09-2012 17:25:58 dawg, I haven't heard a lot about Jimenez yet. He's not very strong at this point and has a bad swing, so he's a project. |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-09-2012 17:26:22 Also, Dawg, I saw the "language" and left it because...w ell, it was appropriate! |
| 40. By: dawgncarolina on 06-09-2012 22:46:34 Thanks for all the updates, JAC. That's a bit disappointing on Jimenez, but I guess that's the best you can expect for less than a quarter million on the open market. Interesting that Marte made an appearance in Clinton, not sure how I missed that one. Any expectations for Leal? |
| 41. By: jkcmason on 06-11-2012 10:07:08 "No. The free agent market costs MORE than re-signing your own guy that isn't FA eligible. Vargas can't negotiate with anyone else. Perhaps as a result, you can get him for closer to the 21 than 24." I still disagree with your valuation. Jason Vargas has a career xFIP of 4.72 and a career era that is 1.62 points higher on the road (5.28). Opposing hitters have an OPS of .798 against him when he is away from Safeco. Do you really think that he is worth 3/$24 to another team on the free agent market? Spending $21mil/3y on someone with that big of splits would be wasting money. Let him taste free agency and see what offers he receives. If he gets offers greater than $10mil/2y let him go because his value is easily replaced. Sign a Kevin Millwood, Jeff Francis, Daisuke Matsuzaka or someone of the like that you could get on a comparable ($7mil) or less expensive one year deal. "But a flyball, strike throwing lefty with a plus changeup -- first of all, they don't grow on trees. Millwood does not equal Vargas. Reliability and health are the biggest questions on guys like Millwood. Maybe Millwood doesn't miss a start, but he can't be relied upon for mid-rotation performance for 190+ innings, and he's right-handed. Being lefty at Safeco matters." Does someone have to be a flyball, strike throwing, lefty with a plus changeup to be a 2.5 WAR pitcher in Safeco field? Even if Kevin Millwood doesn't pitch again this year and Charlie Furbush takes over for 1 WAR of production for the rest of the season, doesn't that combined 180 inning of 2.4 WAR = Jason Vargas production at 1/4 the cost? Being lefty at Safeco field helps, but even right handed pitchers have better than league average production at Safeco. GMZ has done a good job of aquiring players that could fill in if injuries were to occur. We have players like Furbush, Ramirez, Iwakuma, and Carraway; take a risk on a more injury prone player because we have backup were something to happen. "So if you non-tender Vargas, Millwood, or that type anyway, will be your No. 2 starter next April. That is not a team with a chance to sustain winning streaks, which is what it takes to contend in the American League." You are offering $21mil/3y to sustain winning streaks? Where someone pitches in the rotation means very little. If you are expecting Jason Vargas to be our 2nd best pitcher next season, then the Mariners have very little chance to contend in the American League anyway. Just because you don't extend Jason Vargas, doesn't mean you leave the rest of your pitching staff alone. "So, you can disagree, that is fine and dandy. You happen to be wrong, however." I knew going into my comment that you disagreed with me, but I am fairly positive that I can't be "wrong" before the 2013 season even begins. |
| 42. By: Ungnome on 06-11-2012 13:14:14 Before I start I am for resigning Vargas. The reason Vargas should be extended is because the rotation would be weaker without him. Is he really great? No, but he is at least servicable enough to fill a back-end rotation spot relatively cheaply. 3/21 is nothing for an average to slightly below average 200 innings. While he will never be more than a #4 starter teams still need #4 starters. Using Millwood as a baseline is a bad idea. He was brought in on a minor-league contract which he has so far outperformed. The M's got lucky. Remember when folks thought he should be DFA'd? Yeah, me too. Will be a 2013 FA. He is not better than Vargas. Furbush still has problems with RH hitters and has played up coming from the bullpen. He is not better than Vargas. Iwakuma has really done very little to receive as much support as he has from the fanbase. No, seriously, go look. He isn't that good. Also a FA in 2013. Not better than Vargas. Noesi may be better than Vargas in time but right now he is barely sticking in the rotation. Beaven is worse than Vargas and has a lower ceiling. While he is cheap he is still bad. Any rookie will have a tough time matching Vargas over a full season. That fact alone carries a lot of value. Vargas is a major league starting pitcher that is good for 200 innings. Known quantities bring value. That value is even greater when the rest of the rotation is filled by the likes of Beaven, Noesi and rookies. "You are offering $21mil/3y to sustain winning streaks?" Yes? I wouldn't expect they are doing it to sustain losing streaks. "If you are expecting Jason Vargas to be our 2nd best pitcher next season, then the Mariners have very little chance to contend in the American League anyway." The trend suggests the Mariners will not be buying big free agents anytime soon. I don't know what you are expecting but I think you will be disappointed. Vargas will be the second best pitcher on the staff unless a rookie comes up and beats him. "Just because you don't extend Jason Vargas, doesn't mean you leave the rest of your pitching staff alone." Just beacause you sign Vargas doesn't mean you leave the rest of the rotation alone. This contract will not stand in the way of the M's doing something else. Felix, Vargas, Hultzen, Noesi, ????. There is plenty of flexibilty and risk in that rotation to avoid giving up certainty to add more risk. Looking at the rotation now, I wish the M's had another Vargas. Vargas is not the worst pitcher in the rotation. He won't be for several years. That is reason enough to sign him. 3/21 is not a burdensome contract that will handcuff the organization for years. It is a contract that buys time for the young arms to get the time they need to develop in the minors. 3/21 covers the M's for injuries and stalled development. 3/21 is a very cheap insurance policy for a not bad Major League starting pitcher. |
| 43. By: jkcmason on 06-11-2012 15:51:12 Let me try to get my point across differently. I agree that pitching for the Mariners Jason Vargas will likely be worth around 21/3. However I don't think that Jason Vargas is going to receive that payday from anyone else on the open market due to his home/away splits. Safeco Field gives an advantage to any pitcher on the mound. We could take that into consideration and sign flyball pitchers like Kevin Millwood in free agency thus getting better than average production for the market value that we put into them. The other option is to put money into players that are currently taking advantage of Safeco field confines and pay them more than any other team would. Please look at Jason Vargas' Home/Road splits, and tell me that he would be the same pitcher in any other uniform. "Yes? I wouldn't expect they are doing it to sustain losing streaks." -The longest losing streak in Mariners history is 17 games and Jason Vargas pitched 4 games during that time frame. "The trend suggests the Mariners will not be buying big free agents anytime soon. I don't know what you are expecting but I think you will be disappointed." -With the trend in Mariners spending it would make even less sense for them to spend 1/10th of their budget on a #4 starter for 3 years. I would expect that the Mariners will have money to spend after this season with Ichiro, League, Vargas, Iwakuma, Millwood, Sherrill, and Kawasaki coming off the books. "Looking at the rotation now, I wish the M's had another Vargas. Vargas is not the worst pitcher in the rotation. He won't be for several years. That is reason enough to sign him" -So do I, but not if the Mariners are paying him $7mil a year for 3 years. "3/21 is not a burdensome contract that will handcuff the organization for years" If you have a amaller budget than most teams, you have to be smarter with the money you do spend. Jason Vargas should be worth 2.5 wins next season. A Kevin Millwood type pitcher could be worth 1.5 or more and allow you to spend $6mil on 2 wins of improvement in a corner outfield spot. |
| 44. By: Ungnome on 06-12-2012 00:07:32 I like your format, jkc, so I am stealing it. "Please look at Jason Vargas' Home/Road splits, and tell me that he would be the same pitcher in any other uniform." -While Vargas does get an advantage pitching in Safeco the M's would still have to replace Vargas who would likely cost more in FA. "The longest losing streak in Mariners history is 17 games and Jason Vargas pitched 4 games during that time frame." -Felix pitched during that same time frame. Should we get rid of him too? What's your point? "With the trend in Mariners spending it would make even less sense for them to spend 1/10th of their budget on a #4 starter for 3 years." -If the M's had bought Prince Fielder, which would have increased the payroll, would that make it better because then Vargas would only take up 1/13 of the payroll? We are talking about $7mil going to Vargas, not the percentage of payroll he is eating up. "Jason Vargas should be worth 2.5 wins next season" I agree. Last year 1 WAR went for roughly $5mil in FA. $7mil is one helluva deal for a 2.5 WAR pitcher. As long as Vargas is one of the 5 best starting pitchers in the organization he should be retained at a reasonable price. Baseball is not a game of who can be the most efficient with their money. It is about who wins the most ballgames. If Jason Vargas helps the Mariners win more than the other guy then he should be resigned. I am curious, which 2 WAR OF are you targeting for $6mil? And is offering Vargas an extension going to prevent the M's from making that offer for the OF? I am repeating myself here but it is the point of all of this. Jason Vargas is an insurance policy for the youth. Vargas offers flexibility to the organization to not push Walker or Paxton into the rotation before they are ready. We all know that pitchers have a high attrition rate. Why give up a solid, Major League pitcher, who would come cheaply, so that the team can rely on rookies and veteran FA's? |
| 45. By: jkcmason on 06-12-2012 09:19:00 Steal away. At this point I am pretty sure we are going to have to agree to disagree and somehow formulate a bet on either what GMZ does or some other category. "While Vargas does get an advantage pitching in Safeco the M's would still have to replace Vargas who would likely cost more in FA." - Replacing Jason Vargas would cost more in Free Agency, or letting him go to free agency would cost more? Either way I disagree. To most other teams Jason Vargas isn't worth as much because he wouldn't perform pitching in their stadium. Please let me know what team would offer Vargas 3/24 in free agency? He might be worth that to the Mariners, but we should let the market determine his price so that we don't overpay. "Felix pitched during that same time frame. Should we get rid of him too? What's your point?" My point is that winning and losing streaks happen, signing a pitcher to maintain winning streaks or stop losing streaks makes no sense. "If the M's had bought Prince Fielder, which would have increased the payroll, would that make it better because then Vargas would only take up 1/13 of the payroll? We are talking about $7mil going to Vargas, not the percentage of payroll he is eating up." - We likely didn't sign Fielder because we didn't have the money. With a smaller budget the Mariners should save money wherever possible and Vargas' production is easily replaced. "I agree. Last year 1 WAR went for roughly $5mil in FA. $7mil is one helluva deal for a 2.5 WAR pitcher." -Just because you are getting a deal, you stop lookng for a better one? That is like saying the average interest rate on a mortgage in America is 7.5%, I am going to refinance at 7% even though you could get 5%. "As long as Vargas is one of the 5 best starting pitchers in the organization he should be retained at a reasonable price." -What you consider to be a reasonable price for Jason Vargas is different than me. "Baseball is not a game of who can be the most efficient with their money." Front office decisions in baseball are all about getting the most production out of the money you spend. "If Jason Vargas helps the Mariners win more than the other guy then he should be resigned" -Stop thinking in terms of one pitcher vs. one pitcher and start thinking about how to best allocate $7mil "I am curious, which 2 WAR OF are you targeting for $6mil?" -That would completely depend on how the market shapes up at the end of the year. Angel Pagan's stats are likely to regress, Ryan Ludwick is underperforming, Grady Sizemore deserves a flier, Carlos Quentin could get hurt again, Nick Swisher would sign for more, but you could put $6mil toward his contract. There are options out there. - "And is offering Vargas an extension going to prevent the M's from making that offer for the OF?" The Mariners could sign Jason Vargas and an OFer this offseason, but the more you spend on a #4 starter the less you have to spend on a quality bat or 2. You are also offering him a 3 year deal. My main points: 1- Jason Vargas wouldn't be worth 3/21 to any other team, why should we pay more than they are willing to? 2- The Mariners could do more with the $21mil 3- If you are going to sign Vargas, why not just let him go to arbitration this season and earn $7-8mil next year. You get him for the same price this next season and you don't take on the extra risk of 2 additional years? 4- Read this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/where-the-free-agent-value-was-last-winter/ |
| 46. By: StandinPat on 06-12-2012 15:05:50 @45 Since you linked to Fangraphs, you should take a min and look at the group of pitchers that have been roughly as valuable as Vargas, and see what kind of money they've gotten on the FA market. There's a lot of $10+ mil figures out there. Additionally, it's not really an additional $7 to spend elsewhere. Vargas makes 4.85 this year, so really it's only an additional 2.15. And you're kidding yourself if you think you're gonna find an under 30, established innings eater for less than that. The thing that would be interesting about a Vargas extension, esp one at a 7/21 figure, might actually help to improve Vargas' trade value. If he closes out the year well, any team that might look at him at next year's trade deadline, would be getting Vargas for an additional 2 years at a reasonable rate. |
| 47. By: jkcmason on 06-13-2012 12:05:19 "take a min and look at the group of pitchers that have been roughly as valuable as Vargas, and see what kind of money they've gotten on the FA market. There's a lot of $10+ mil figures out there." - I have already taken that minute, and it depends on the stat you are organizing by. There are 65 pitchers that have thrown 400+ innings since the beginning of the 2010 season. Only two of them (Jeremy Guthrie & Randy Wolf) have a higher xFIP than Vargas. There are four with a higher SIERA, Three with a higher fly ball percentage (all of which have higher K rates, lower walk rates and lower BABIP). If you are looking at WAR and only WAR, you need to understand that is is calculated based off of FIP. FIP doesn't take ballparks into consideration (Jason Vargas Home FIP - 3.73, Jason Vargas Away FIP - 5.05). Who are his comparables? "Additionally, it's not really an additional $7 to spend elsewhere." - Cutting Jason Vargas loose would give us an additional $7mil to spend within the budget next season when comparing the budget with his contract and without it. "And you're kidding yourself if you think you're gonna find an under 30, established innings eater for less than that." - How about we put Charlie Furbush in the rotation for the 2nd half of this season to see if he can keep his homerun rate below 1.2. "The thing that would be interesting about a Vargas extension, esp one at a 7/21 figure, might actually help to improve Vargas' trade value. If he closes out the year well, any team that might look at him at next year's trade deadline, would be getting Vargas for an additional 2 years at a reasonable rate." - Please look at his splits on fangraphs and put yourself in the position of another front office. Would you trade for him? |
| 48. By: StandinPat on 06-13-2012 14:21:31 "If you are looking at WAR and only WAR, you need to understand that is is calculated based off of FIP. FIP doesn't take ballparks into consideration (Jason Vargas Home FIP - 3.73, Jason Vargas Away FIP - 5.05)" In other words, he's a perfect fit for the ballpark? That's a reason to NOT resign him? "Who are his comparables?" Those with comparable stats who signed FA deals or extension? Thought that was pretty straight forward. Wandy Rodriguez makes $10, Brett Myers makes $11, Joe Saunders got $6, hell run of the mill MRs get $4.5+. I don't know what you think you're gonna get for less than $7, but I'll pretty much guarantee you'll be disappointed. "Cutting Jason Vargas loose would give us an additional $7mil to spend within the budget next season when comparing the budget with his contract and without it." Yet you still need someone to take his spot, and you may not have a young player capable of that early 2013, so you're right back to spending some amount on that position, so again it's not $7 mil, it's $7 - X. "How about we put Charlie Furbush in the rotation for the 2nd half of this season to see if he can keep his homerun rate below 1.2." That's a big IF, and Furbush has a delivery that may not hold up in the rotation. Honestly I like Furbush probably as much as anyone, but right now Vargas is your defacto #2, so 'just put Charlie Furbush there' isn't exactly confidence inspiring. "Please look at his splits on fangraphs and put yourself in the position of another front office. Would you trade for him?" What I would do, and what say Kenny Williams would do are two entirely different things. Forget about the splits for half a second, and just look at the market for similar pitchers. They routinely get more money, often for more years, will often have worse results, and STILL get traded for all the time. Also, the fact that Vargas pitches better in a pitchers park isn't any sort of massive revelation. |
| 49. By: jkcmason on 06-14-2012 11:53:39 Again, I fully expect that this is an agree to disagree moment where neither of us are going to change the other person's mind, but my stubborn attitude responds with: "In other words, he's a perfect fit for the ballpark? That's a reason to NOT resign him?" - No, but please understand that his value to other teams is not high. He is a number 4 pitcher for the Mariners. He is not a starter for other teams. His value for us should be determined by what he could make on the open market. $21mil is a lot of money to pay for someone who other people would not offer a contract to. - Please look at the Home/Road splits for FIP on Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Joe Saunders and Jason Vargas. Notice that in all three of your examples the difference is less than .4. For Jason Vargas the difference is 1.32. with and away FIP of over 5. - It isn't $7mil, it is $7mil for three years. Why wouldn't you just pay him arbitration and see where you stand after next season? "What I would do, and what say Kenny Williams would do are two entirely different things." - This is a solid way to dodge the question. I didn't ask what Kenny Williams would do. "Forget about the splits for half a second, and just look at the market for similar pitchers. They routinely get more money, often for more years, will often have worse results, and STILL get traded for all the time." - Oh OK, well since that is the case we should pay way more than any other team would via free agency to retain him and forget about saving money where we can. Not team would trade for Vargas if he were making $7mil annually unless something changed and he got better. "Also, the fact that Vargas pitches better in a pitchers park isn't any sort of massive revelation." - Alright so you agree his value to other teams is lower. What contract do you think he gets on the free agent market if the Mariners aren't in the bidding? |
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