| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 06-05-2009 |
We're nearly two months into the minor league season and the results are in. Unfortunately for a certain few, the scouting reports are in, too.Tacoma (AAA) - Pacific Coast League
Tacoma has a lot of interesting bats, including a few that no longer qualify as prospects, such as Brad Nelson and Jeff Clement. While there aren't any starting pitchers worth an inch of ink, there are a couple of left-handed hitters and one right-hander that could help the M's in the bullpen at some point this season.
Michael Saunders, LF
Saunders, 22, began the year on the disabled list after having shoulder surgery late last summer. And that's the only concern with his game right now -- will the arm strength return?
He's cut down on the strikeouts this season -- just 19 in 134 PAs, versus 96 in 91 games a year ago -- and he's shown a little bit more pop as well with 13 extra-base hits, six of them home runs.
Saunders' skillset is exactly what the current 25-man roster in Seattle is missing -- patient left-handed bat with some power, above-average defense (he can even get by in center field) and he runs well with 50-55 speed.
"There's lot to like there,' said one long-time west coast area scout. "I notice he's made some adjustments at the plate, maybe that's where the extra power is coming from, and certainly that's why he's not swinging and missing as much."
Saunders has been more selective, but at the same time is not letting his pitch go by for the sake of being patient and trying to draw walks.
His swing is shorter, a little more compact, and there are no wasted movements. His hands are pretty quiet and his front leg kick is smooth.
Check it out:
You can see how easy his swing has become. The BP footage appears a little nonchalant, but he's trying to stay relaxed and upright so he can cover the plate - which he does well.
Saunders may hit .300 in the big leagues if he can learn to go the other way a little bit better.
Saunders is hitting .345/.435/.566 through Thursday and probably has a big-league ceiling of .280/.350/.450 with a chance for more power. It's easy to forget that he's only 22 with development time remaining, and as he continues to mature physically, he'll bottom-out his footspeed at the average or slightly above-average ranks, but may exchange it for power.
That's a trade Mariners fans should be happy to accept.
Mike Carp, 1B
Carp is a few things, but one thing he isn't is a Gold Glover. Oddly, however, it's not about having terrible range -- he grades below average, but not ridiculous -- or being incapable of making decent throws. Carp simply has problems fielding balls cleanly, which would make him a DH.
He's a line drive hitter with a great swing and average raw power. He maxes out his power with great plate discipline, good pitch recognition and good contact skills. His bat speed is slightly above average and if he was trying to hit more home runs, he'd probably hit 30 and put up a .260/.320/.480 line with 140 strikeouts in the process, but that would take a complete rebuild of his approach, anyway.
Carp's ceiling is as an average offensive first baseman -- in the AL, that's a .281/.359/.479 bat in 2008 -- but he probably belongs at DH, giving no defensive value at first.
Mike Carp is not the long-term answer at first base for the M's.
Notes:
Right-hander Doug Fister is a future bullpen candidate, and if the M's find a way to jettison Miguel Batista, Fister is a Sean White clone that could fit right into the rile of a multi-inning relief option.
He keeps the ball down, gets good plane thanks in part to his 6-8, 210-pound frame, and is showing top shelf control with a 36-3 K/BB ratio in 40 innings. He's starting for Tacoma, but his future is in relief where he can max out and sit 92-95 and touch 96 with his four-seamer.
He's 25 and nearly done with significant improvements with his physical skills, but there's enough stuff there to be successful in the pen right now.
Matt Tuiasosopo is still recovering from having bone chips removed from his throwing elbow and is expected to be out at least another 2-4 weeks, but it could be longer.
Clinton (A) - Midwest League
Clinton boasts a couple of interesting arms and a position player worth keeping an eye on.
Brett Lorin, RHP
Lorin, a 6-foot-7, 245 pounder out of Long Beach State, offers a 90-93 mph fastball that touches the mid-90s, and an improving curve ball that has been effective versus Midwest League bats.
"He's got more fastball in there, too," said one scout who has seen Clinton's entire pitching staff twice around the rotation, and remembers seeing the 22-year-old Lorin in college. "He's a little light on experience, so you can still project him out some."
Lorin has average command and above-average control, but attacks both sides of the plate gets good downward plane on his fastball. The better his command and curve ball get, the closer to the big leagues he'll find himself.
His change, a work in progress, isn't being used enough at present, but he doesn't need it in that league. He will once he jumps up a level.
With an average changeup and continued improvement of the curveball -- he needs an out pitch -- Lorin could max out as a No. 3 starter.
Aaron Pribanic, RHP
Pribanic, 21, offers a 91-94 mph fastball that has touched 95, a split-change, a slider and a curve ball. Seattle has typically asked pitchers to shelf one of the breaking balls to focus on one of them, but Pribanic still has both in his arsenal.
The curve ball is an average, perhaps slightly above-average pitch right now, but it will flash as a sharp-breaking downer at times. His slider gets flat, and his split-change has always been his out pitch.
"This guys is at least a setup prospect," said the scout. "Good, live arm; I don't like his delivery, but like the arm. If he finds some consistency and gets in sync, he can start."
Pribanic's stuff suggests a back-end guy, but at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, his velocity could improve, perhaps to where he's sitting 93-96, better setting up the split. But to have success long term and reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation arm, he's going to have to develop the curve ball.
In relief, he can go FB-SPL, or FB-SPL-SL, and be fine, with or without delivery adjustments.
Denny Almonte, OF
Simply put, Almonte strikes out way too much. He just does, and it's what keeps him from being a fun player to follow. It's easy to get excited about the 28 extra-base hits and the fact that he switch hits. But the 70 strikeouts in 219 plate appearances -- after 149 in 408 PAs a year ago at the same level -- aren't covered by enough patience or power, though he does posses plus power from the left side of the plate.
At 20, Almonte shouldn't quit switch hitting, necessarily, but he's not good from the right side at all -- less power, and one scout opined that he "seems to see the ball better as a lefty."
He has good range for a corner outfielder, and has a plus arm, but is at least average in center, despite needing work on his routes. He does get pretty good jumps and makes up for some bad routes with his 60 speed.
As is, he's a C- prospect at best. With marked improvement with making contact, he's a real prospect.
Notes: Mario Martinez -- don't give up on him, but realize that whether he can actually play third base long term or not, he's not going to hit enough to profile there in the big leagues. A move to the outfield is in line, and to help his offensive development, the sooner the better for that move.
Martinez was never a great prospect, but he could still develop his average raw power and turn into a big-league player. It's just probably not as a regular, as his physical skills aren't big enough -- no plus tools -- to make up for what lacks in other areas.
Next Week I'll catch up on the High Desert and West Tennessee clubs, and I'll have a report on Adam Moore on Sunday.
Photo of Michael Saunders by Paul Marsh
Video by Prospect Insider
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Comments
The following 47 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: amac360 on 06-05-2009 22:19:02 What is Jeff Clements ceiling? |
| 2. By: Juan Valdez on 06-05-2009 22:59:41 Disappointing about Martinez. I had understood that he was considered a pretty bright prospect with some real tools as recently as last season. Did something change, or did he simply get exposed moving to the higher level of play? |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-05-2009 23:19:55 Clement: an average offensive DH/1B who can catch in an very part-time or emergency role. Nothing changed, he's just not showing he has the acumen to be an everyday regular and he doesn't have the kind of physical skillset to make up for that with natural ability. Not giving up on him, he's too young. |
| 4. By: Blowgun7 on 06-05-2009 23:31:54 So Carp and Clement have pretty much the same value? |
| 5. By: amac360 on 06-06-2009 00:31:28 What about Triunfel? Is he still considered a top prospect with the injury? |
| 6. By: jonbbt on 06-06-2009 00:31:53 Do you think Nate Tenbrink can establish himself as a prospect at some point? |
| 7. By: jonbbt on 06-06-2009 00:35:33 Also (and sorry for the double post) I would be very interested in a Gillies vs. Carrera comparison. They seem to have a very similar skillset, though I get the impression that Gillies is the more gifted athlete with more room to grow. |
| 8. By: slick on 06-06-2009 02:42:27 espn deportes reports that they are hearing rumors that Guillermo Pimentel left handed Domincano Prospect, and the M's are talking a 2 million dollar bonus. They also say Seattle is loosely tied to Nicaraguan 3B prospect Cuthbert for a 6 figure bonus. |
| 9. By: CrockDaddy on 06-06-2009 12:37:45 it has been a pretty amazing streak for west tennessee lately, only one run over five games. they must really be stinging the ball down there |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-06-2009 15:02:09 All I have heard on the IFA to this point is that the M's are probably going to double or triple what they spent a year ago. It's a better crop of talent. |
| 11. By: bilbo on 06-06-2009 18:25:59 slick, can you link us up on Pimentel? I Bing'ed it and I found an article from last month saying he was going to sign with the Rangers for 1.5-2mm. |
| 12. By: slick on 06-06-2009 18:36:31 #11 It is on Espn.com insider Jorge Aranguré latin america baseball blog. This is where i saw it in English it is on Espn Deportes as well not sure if you need the subscription or not on ESPN Deportes that is all in Espanol. |
| 13. By: slick on 06-06-2009 18:41:52 Kyle Gibson has a stress fracture in the arm. Missou over used the guy this year he pitched 4 consecutive complete games mid year. Maybe a second rounder this year or Fort Worth bound. Jason, How much does Gibson sign for with the new news of the stress fracture, and do you think the M's would even consider drafting him now? |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-06-2009 19:11:50 I'm betting Gibson still goes in round one - a forearm stress fracture isn't a serious arm injury... he will heal and there are no concerns that he won't get back to 100% -- but Keith is checking in to see what teams are thinking today. re: Pimintel La Esquina just replied and said that Texas was the earlt frontrunner but Seattle is the favorite right now. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-06-2009 19:39:52 Tenbrink's bat says middle of the field (catcher, second, short, center) but his defensive abilities don't agree. That's going to be a tough one. I can't see him becoming a regular, jonbbt, so I'd have to say no, not a prospect. Not worthless, could still serve in a reserve role in the big leagues, or maybe a utility role -- he does bat lefthanded and field everything he gets to. |
| 16. By: bl4dux on 06-06-2009 20:20:36 Could Washburn bring in a straight-up B prospect? Like Jason Donald from the Phillies? I mean his value is as high as it is ever going to get. He has a lower era than Felix! I love pitching, but I also love hitting, and Cedeno can't hit and Yuni cant field nor walk for his life. Come on Jack, get creative!! |
| 17. By: bilbo on 06-06-2009 20:42:16 Thanks slick. Here is what Arangure had to say in case anyone else is interested. •There are rumblings that left-handed hitting outfielder Guillermo Pimentel, who almost seemed destined to land with the Texas Rangers, might now be talking to the Seattle Mariners. It's believed Pimentel will get a signing bonus in the $2 million range. |
| 18. By: Corey on 06-06-2009 20:52:03 Probably meaningless, but obviously Aumont was made into a reliever at the beginning of the year to be a future closer/8th inning holder. But, I noticed in his last outing he threw 3 innings. Seems like a lot of work out of no where. Anything to be looked into here or just a little more work than usual? |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-06-2009 21:04:32 BTW, Jon, Crow's mechanics are fine. Some are too infaturated with the inverted W, but the only real concern is the hook, and some believe it'll help his breaking ball's effectiveness. |
| 20. By: slick on 06-06-2009 21:30:24 Alex White pitched an awesome game today, he has a lot to prove down the stretch wonder if the Reds or Tigers are in on him. |
| 21. By: safecochatter on 06-07-2009 08:40:45 jason any plans for live chat or ?? on tuesday or u got other commitments? i'm in tiger country for this draft and the "fans" are talking Alex White here. a solid college arm to fit in with jackson/porcello would be nice. |
| 22. By: acqb1424 on 06-07-2009 09:29:53 Jason, Today in the TNT, in an article discussing GMZ and the Putz trade, Ryan Divish wrote that Cleto was..."Had his season delayed, but is in Arizona throwing bullpen sessions. Should be assigned to a team soon." Is this true? Have you heard anything on it? |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 11:41:08 I have not, acqb... on May 13, or so, he was not in Arizona, so it's a somewhat new development. But Jack isn't going to lie about it, so I'm sure it's true. I'll be able to make those kinds of calls more once the draft is over. re: Alex White He was good, not great yesterday, but certainly helped himself. He was otherwise in danger of falling out of the top 15. I'm still hearing Jake Turner at 9 for Detroit, with Trout and Fuentes, and maybe one other prep player, as the backup plan if they balk at Turner's asking price of 3-3.5 mil. Re: Draft chat We'll do one Monday, I'm thinking, to go with the latest mock draft... Tuesday I'm in studio with Softy and once the draft starts, I'm live blogging at ESPN with Keith. Perhaps we can get one last chat in between the end of Softy's show and the start of the draft. |
| 24. By: yohnhimself on 06-07-2009 13:08:51 Nice to watch Ackley on ESPN work the count to 3-2 and then hit an opposite field three-run homer. I really hope we take him. |
| 25. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-07-2009 13:10:22 Ackley hits another homer today. The guy has wicked plate coverage. East Carolina's closer was in and threw him a low and away slider and Ackley took it opposite field. |
| 26. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-07-2009 13:18:36 You beat me to it, Yohn. |
| 27. By: Gustafson on 06-07-2009 13:22:49 Ackley sure generated easy power on that bomb too. Aluminum bat, but the ball sure did jump off his bat. Jim Callis of Baseball America is reporting that Boras is talking "Texeira money" for Ackley, which may be spooking the M's. Tex got 8.5 mil or so (and that was 8 years ago so Boras may adjust for inflation). Not sure Ackley is an impact bat worthy of the all-time record for a position player... But he sure can rake. |
| 28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 14:34:55 Boras didn't get what he was "asking for" on ANY one of his players in round one last year, including Fields and Alvarez. There's no way Ackley gets $8.5 from anyone. |
| 29. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-07-2009 14:41:47 Dustin Ackley is not Mark Teixeira. That is a silly comparison in my opinion. |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 14:43:40 Well, I'm not sure Boras is comparing him to Teixeira, he's comparing Ackley's 2009 value to Teixeira's in 2001. |
| 31. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-07-2009 15:00:18 But still, Tex was a very special player. I guess its the better angle because if you compare him to Alvarez, it's easy to cite that Alvarez is much better and it was only last year. Boras doing his best to use inflation and time to his advantage? Its flimsy but a better attempt at more money I suppose. |
| 32. By: DAMellen on 06-07-2009 16:59:29 Who knows what time the draft starts? I almost feel like I should take the day off work for it. God, I hope we take Ackley. Or that the Nats take Ackley. Either of those would be fine. |
| 33. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 17:31:15 3 PT. And Boras doesn't have to convince anyone that Ackley = Tex. He can demand what he wants, and to an extent, it will work, undoubtedly. The only time it typically doesn't is when his clients fail to sign and re-enter the draft the following year. Gaining a few hundred to 500k is not worth losing a year of being a pro and under the instruction of a club's coaches. |
| 34. By: Lonnie on 06-07-2009 17:43:31 I got word from Jon Shields who got the word from Divish that Cleto is definately in Arizona. Wow, that's kind of like my brother's neighbor's third cousin kind of daisy-chain. ;) Lonnie |
| 35. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-07-2009 17:49:44 Now how does the Aug. 15th deadline work? Is it only the guys with no more college eligibility that don't have to be signed prior to that date (e.g. Josh Fields)? |
| 36. By: amac360 on 06-07-2009 18:02:28 Sorry bout the re-post but what's Triunfel's situation? Is he still considered a top prospect with the injury? |
| 37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 18:03:13 Divish got it from Jack, which was how TNT got it. So if you believe the third-cousin line, the TNT should have been enough. juggler, Yes. Everyone else has until Aug 15 or they go to college, back to college or to indy leagues. |
| 38. By: Juan Valdez on 06-07-2009 18:27:29 Man, I sure hope we take Ackley with the #2 pick. I'm picturing an outfield with Ichiro in right, Ackley in center, and Saunders in left. Or, if Saunders doesn't work out, maybe Ackley in left, and Gutierrez in center. Either way, that's a scary good outfield. |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 18:48:58 How about the 4 million dollar outfield of Ackley, Saunders and Gutierrez in 2012? He's not going to step off the field in Omaha, into a Mariners uniform and start playing at high levels. He's not THAT good, not many are. 2011, 2012 for sure. |
| 40. By: Corey on 06-07-2009 19:05:18 I'm still interested in seeing if the M's give him a look at 2b. I'm not holding my breath, though. |
| 41. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 19:13:24 Why would you want his debut to be pushed back a significant amount of time so you can see if he can play a position he hasn't played in at least 4-5 years? That's counterproductive. |
| 42. By: Corey on 06-07-2009 19:40:52 I doubt the M's would stick with the idea if Ackley didn't show promise early or that he could quickly adapt to playing it. |
| 43. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-07-2009 19:49:50 But why bother? You KNOW he can play outfield, sans a setback with the arm strength, and any time he spends trying to turn into a second baseman pushes his ETA back. His bat needs 500-700 plate appearances. His transition to second base would certainly need twice that time. |
| 44. By: StandinPat on 06-07-2009 19:52:42 Jason, Quicker ETA to the bigs Crow or Ackley? Also, is Crow substantially closer than our A ball arms? |
| 45. By: Slurve on 06-07-2009 20:52:00 With the draft on Tuesday which player would make you do backflips if he fell to the M's at 27th and 33rd? |
| 46. By: Corey on 06-07-2009 20:55:13 It'd be worth looking into because his value at 2b would be much more than in one of the corner spots in the OF. Anytime there's a possibility to to get maximum value out of a player it's worth looking in to. In the end I doubt it happens like I said, but it's still an interesting idea. And for clarification, when I said if Ackley didn't show promise early then go ahead and quit the idea, I'm talking half a season at the most. If he was just getting abused at 2b and wasn't showing ANY signs of getting better, then go ahead and pull the plug on the idea. I'm looking at this as more of exploring an option rather than trying to make him fit there. If he didn't cut the mustard within a couple months then I'd abandon the whole idea pretty quickly. |
| 47. By: FatBat on 06-08-2009 11:46:32 Draft day tomorrow. Sweet. Got the day off work too. So with the M's not giving us any leads...Jason do you see any upset with the M's first pick? Or can we just relax. Cuz the last time I got all giddy like this was when we were going into draft day with a clear pick of Lincy and we boobed it up and took Morrow. Jack don't do it!!!! Ackley Ackley |
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