|By Jason A. Churchill||By 11-12-2012|
|1. By: Bellacaramella on 11-12-2012 15:18:59|
Thanks for this. A couple of questions for you, Jason:
1. Should we expect a Felix extension? How would that affect payroll?
2. Which players on your free agent/trade list would require owner involvement re: contract negotiations? Given Dombrowski's comments about how big contracts are organizational commitments, I wonder whether the Mariner owners can be so decisive and swift.
|2. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-12-2012 15:24:01|
I sure don't see a lot of landing spots for FA from you Jason. Lol! You know what, that's ok though. I don't either. ;-)
|3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2012 15:27:37|
1. Yes, and not at all.
2. Yes, they can. And we're not talking about $200 million contracts. What I expect is a change in the market as a result of trades or other signings, opening doors for Seattle that I don't see now. They are not the most likely team, IMO, to sign any single FA bat. But if Balt or another club that is looking at the same players, makes a trade, now it's different.
Happens every year, often.
|4. By: short on 11-12-2012 16:25:04|
Thanks for the awesome salary overview. This is getting me excited for the offseason.
Personally I like the M's to get one of the second-tier starting pitchers, and one of the second-tier OF bats. So not Greinke or Hamilton but the likes of Sanchez, Haren or Marcum for pitching...Swisher or Cabrerra among OF's. That's because they have a good amount of money and those positions have some depth this year allowing the M's to sit tight on the top guys and target the next tier with a solid offer.
|5. By: Paul Martin on 11-12-2012 16:55:35|
Jason, you predicted Josh Hamilton re-signs with Texas. Was this prediction made before Texas went public with a 3 year max contract??? Do you think he accepts the 3 years or does Texas cave in and give him more??? Crawford, you have Hamilton signing with the Mariners. What will the contract terms be in years and $$$?
Thanks for the great work!
|6. By: rjfrik on 11-12-2012 17:02:22|
Unless the M's try and hit a home run by signing Hamilton I don't see them signing anyone that has turned down their one year tender. I just don't see the M's parting with the #12 pick for anyone except Hamilton. So that leaves out Swisher, Upton and Bourne.
With that said I think the M's go after Melky as their first option in the OF and Victorino as their second option if they miss out on Melky.
I think they bring in a pitcher like Haren, Jackson or Marcum. Sanchez and Grienke are out due to turning down their tenders.
I think they explore one big trade, not sure if they will make it, but will be in discussions with a few teams about moving one or two of their top prospects.
I think we will see one or two minor signings. A back up catcher and a DH type player. Hopefully Hafner.
|7. By: Paul Martin on 11-12-2012 17:07:41|
Why no talk about signing Francisco Liriano to a 1 year deal? He can come to a pitcher friendly ballpark and pad his numbers for another free agent run next year. I bet we get him cheap too.
|8. By: short on 11-12-2012 17:08:58|
rjfrik makes a good point. What is the value of the 12th pick going to be this year? The M's have done so well in the draft I'd hate to see them give up their pick for less than a top guy.
|9. By: rotoenquire on 11-12-2012 17:11:33|
From what I understand it is 92 Million. Weather they spend it all or not, who knows. But, that is the number I have heard.
I agree with a couple people that anyone that will cost a draft pick may not be someone the M's are looking at. Napoli, Haren, Cabrera, Marcum all make sense. So does going with guys who have some upside they can buy low. Such as Liriano and Sizemore.
|10. By: bavasisabum on 11-12-2012 17:43:35|
Anyone know if Paxton got shut down/injured? He hasnt pitched since the rising stars game and that was only an inning.
|11. By: Panhead55 on 11-12-2012 18:09:42|
Signing Greinke does not require a draft pick compensation as he was not Angels property for the entire season.
|12. By: Rudolf on 11-12-2012 18:55:02|
#6 Sanchez does not require a draft pick either because he was traded at the deadline.
We really need two OF to flank Saunders-- whether we buy free agents or make trades-- but I would be happy with one. Two might get a little expensive to buy anyway. That being said, we have middle infield/pitching depth that can/should be used to aquire an outfielder in the next year or two.
While I was once of the impression we should protect the #12 pick, I am now okay with signing Swisher. I think he has a couple more good years in him and his personality is terrific for loosening up the dugout. Between Swisher, Felix, Zunino, Franklin, and Romero, we have the makings of a great dugout environment. We need confident, charismatic guys to lead this team, preferably ones that don't carry .250 OBP's and allow passed balls at league leading rates. If we cannot lure Swisher then I don't like any of the other options, (unless Hamilton comes much cheaper than expected).
Buy an outfielder or two, a #2 starting pitcher, and we're almost ready for 2013 to start. If we can package a middle infielder, starting pitcher, and justin smoak for something awesome then I'll be stoked.
|13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2012 22:58:15|
There is no actual number. Period.
I do not buy into everything that is sad by a team's GM or president about contracts, and I certainly do not put a lot of stock in the report about three years. There's no chance the Rangers would say not to a 4-year, $90 million proposal, for example.
Also it's vague. Maybe the three-year thought -- if there is anything to it at all -- is three GUARANTEED years, but they are willing to tack on a two-year option based on PAs in year three, making it a five-year deal.
I made that prediction yesterday.
|14. By: rjfrik on 11-13-2012 00:11:50|
I get a feeling JZ will trade one of the big four pitchers for a young bat over the winter. He has his feelers out there and Hultzen, Paxton, Walker and Mauer could bring back a real nice hitter.
|15. By: Adam T on 11-13-2012 10:51:06|
So the top 15 picks are not protected anymore?
Can I just say that I hate the new CBA? Totally tailored to benefit bigger market clubs. Caps on spending in the draft, in the international market - bigger clubs can offer tenders to their overpriced vets and get a 1st round pick when the player turns it down.
|16. By: maqman on 11-13-2012 11:18:26|
It would be a surprise to see the M's surrender their first pick. Hamilton or Swisher are about the only ones I can see being worth doing it for. I will be very surprised if they sign either of them. Not that they might not want to sign them but I don't see any reciprocal interest on the player's part, unless they pay way over true market value.
By the way Jason and all the crew, thanks for a very interesting and thorough review of the team's options in the off-season. You did good work.
|17. By: Rudolf on 11-13-2012 11:35:57|
They would have to be fools not to consider us. The M's are a team on the upswing. Our collection of talent, IMO, is more impressive than the A's or Orioles. We are a great team to jump in the mix with for the foreseeable future.
Look how things turned out for Cliff Lee picking his "winner" team. How long until the Yankees collapse? Signing in Boston the last two years worked out well for vets seeking a winning ballclub.
|18. By: rjfrik on 11-13-2012 19:00:28|
The M's would be fools to give up the 12th pick in the draft this year. Maybe for Hamilton, but Jack won't go anywhere near the deal he wants. I just don't see M's giving up the 12th for Swisher. That would be a huge mistake. The 12th pick is valuable and lately a lot of great players have been had around that pick. Keep the pick and draft a guy that will be with the club in a few years. Just one more young asset.
|19. By: rotoenquire on 11-13-2012 19:15:29|
The M's have always set a budget and 92 is what I hear and from a good source. Was told the M's could also afford to go higher if the upper brass would want to spend it.
|20. By: krob4mvp on 11-13-2012 20:02:11|
With the Marlins in the midst of another firesale; could the Mariners be in line to possibly explore a trade for Ricky Nolasco? I wouldn't mind seeing us pick Nolasco and LoMo up if the trade price was right.
|21. By: short on 11-13-2012 20:42:28|
I think giving up the pick for a guy who the team feels will provide value over the next three years might be ok. It's a "win now" move vs. drafting a player that won't produce for 2-3 years -- and that's if he's a college pick -- it would be longer if he's a prep player.
The question is does the team feel it's "window" with this crop of players starts now? Maybe next offseason would be the time to start giving up picks to get better players in free agency, if a couple more young guys step up in 2013.
|22. By: krob4mvp on 11-13-2012 21:24:06|
Just for fun, here are the last few drafts #12 overall picks;
2012: NY Mets: Gavin Cecchini SS
2011: Milwaukee Brewers: Taylor Jungmann RHP
2010: Cincinnati Reds: Yasmani Grandal C
2009: KC Royals: Aaron Crow RHP
2008: Oakland Athletics: Jemile Weeks 2B
2007: Florida Marlins: Matt Dominuguez 3B
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