Prospect Insider - M's not extending Ichiro
M's not extending Ichiro

By Jason A. ChurchillBy 01-26-2012

One subject we've deemed untouchable here is trading Ichiro. I keep telling people when they ask me if Team X could be a fit for Ichiro that "we don't talk about fight club." The reason is because the Seattle Mariners aren't going to trade Ichiro.

It sounds, however, as if they have no plans to extend his contract, either. The great Larry Stone of the Seattle Times spoke to GM Jack Zduriencik Thursday and wrote that the club is "going to allow Ichiro to go into, and possibly through, the season on his current contract."

That is huge news that is going under the radar.

Now, Zduriencik did not flat out say the club will not be retaining Ichiro. He said nothing of the sort. This does mean, however, they they aren't going to extend Ichiro's contract and keep him around simply to keep Ichiro around. He has to earn it.

It also tells me that the club sees value in challenging a player in a contract year, even Ichiro, and that the organization is about winning, not marketing a Japanese player to appease the Japanese flavor of the ownership.

This is further evidence that Zduriencik's influence is strong, and that the franchise is not acting on the same principles it did in years past. Principles that greatly contributed to the woes its suffered through since the end of the 2003 season.

Maybe Ichiro earns an extension, but there's little reason -- really ZERO reason -- to believe it will be a crippling pact or that the M's will be housing a 40-something right fielder in 2015.

The Seattle Mariners are clearly being run as a baseball club as well as a business, rather than business before baseball.



m\'s-not-extending-ichiro

Comments
The following 26 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: Notorious DAD on 01-26-2012 23:06:49
Bravo Jack, bravo.

2.  By: rotoenquire on 01-26-2012 23:35:13
That would be the hope that most of us have. What also needs to be considered is the Japanese way of doing business. Hiroshi Yamouchi can intervene on this at anytime. Granted Nintendo owns the M's now, but he is the main guy in Nintendo. Some Japanese Business traditions that are and will be in play.

. The Japanese do not see contracts as final agreements so they can be renegotiated.
. The Japanese prefer to do business on the basis of personal relationships.
. The Japanese believe that turning down someone's request causes embarrassment and loss of face to the other person.
. The Japanese will try never to do anything to cause loss of face.
. Therefore, they do not openly criticize, insult, or put anyone on-the-spot.


So if Ichiro requests or Mr. Yamouchi requests Ichiro to stay and Ichiro has not lost face or done anything to dissuade viewed appearance. He would most likely stay in Seattle. There is a distinct structure to Japanese Business that you won't find anyplace else. As a result it puts the M's in a different place than any other club. Especially when it comes to Japanese players.

I would think that Ichiro will do what K. Johjima did and will return to Japan to finish out his career. Thus not putting the M's in a position to cause Ichiro to lose face. By letting Ichiro go to Free Agency and if he does poorly Ichiro could lose face. Even if he does well having his team not want him back could also be a position of losing face. Ichiro will most likely as a result announce he will return to Japanese baseball at some point this season. Under the guise he wants to finish his career at home near his wife.

That is just my two cents.

3.  By: IWearMsHats on 01-26-2012 23:49:43
I really respect what Zduriencik has done this off season. Clearly he is sticking to his plan for better or for worse. I'm all for not extending Ichiro, but I caution that people should be open to the fact that Ichiro earns an extension. I hope people will be rooting for Ichiro to earn an extension.

4.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-26-2012 23:51:49
Let's stop right now. STOP pretending that Mr. Yamauchi is running this team. He is not. His stake in the team is GONE, and his influence wanes more and more everyday.

There are Japanese minority owners, such as Minoru Awakawa, but Yamauchi is not making key decisions anymore, not business, and not baseball.

And this whole lose face thing... sure, it means something to Ichiro, and the Mariners don't want to contribute greatly to that with intent, but Hideki Matsui, who is just as Japanese as Ichiro is going from team to team because the Yankees passed on him, then the Angels didn't want him back and now the A's have passed.

Kuroda is now on his second team with a lesser contract, too. It happens. This major league baseball. Maybe Ichiro wants to go back to Japan but to suggest it's likely he will announce he's going back home after the season is worse than pure speculation, it's a ridiculous guess.

5.  By: rotoenquire on 01-27-2012 00:11:22
Ichiro is different than any other Japanese player. In terms of who he is. Matsui came close, but is no were near Ichiro in Japan or that part of the world. And Ichiro is VERY aware of his image, why he still uses an interpreter, when as most know he speaks pretty good English. He does not want anything being misconstrued in translation here or back home. Yamauchi still owns it all, the title may have changed, but a Japanese owners influence is not the same as in America. It will play some sort of factor. I have seen and been around enough Japanese dealings to know that.

As for what Ichiro will do it is speculation based on seeing it happen in the past with other players. Johjima, Sazaki, Nomo, Iwamura, Tadano, Matsui, Nakamura, Yabuta and the list goes on. They all went back to play in Japan. Fukudome maybe headed back to Japan according to reports. I try to base my opinions on what has happened in the past. And it is possible even if you do not think it will happen.

6.  By: valencia on 01-27-2012 00:29:08
If Ichiro hits like he did pre-2011, he will most likely get a 2-year deal to reach 3000 hits. If he hits like he did in 2011, he's either bouncing around team to team trying to hit 3000 or retiring. There really is no other way this plays out.



7.  By: ripperlv on 01-27-2012 01:10:39
Having lived in Japan for three years, I have absolutely no insight to how Ichiro feels about next year. As a Mariner fan, I hope this is Ichiro's last year. He was great, but all good things come to an end. He really doesn't fit the team any more.

8.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2012 01:12:12
I guess rotoenquire is Ichiro's best friend. Whatever, dude. Stop talking out of your backside. Nobody but Ichiro knows what he is likely to do.

9.  By: frontstreetfan on 01-27-2012 03:18:27
I think it's more likely than less Ichiro responds with a good season at the plate with batting down in the order to 2 or 3. An abundance of very good to All Star players over the yrs have extended their careers by making adjustments in their batting order and or field position. His move in the order to the three spot or 2 hole with Ackley , Ryan or Figgins in front of him might prove to be a very good move for Ichiro and the Mariners. He would then be followed by Smoak, Montero or Carp with a lot more OBP in front of him he is going to have a lot of runner on base . Ackley, Figgins and Ryan as well as Guti also possess excellent base running skills and those Big Guys behind Ichirio in the three spot will insure Ichiro is going to be getting a lot more pitches to drive and that's gotta be enticing for ichiro as it will result in vastly increased run production over the previous 2 yrs. I think he earns a 2yr extension offer. JC as you said it though, only Ichiro knows what he will do at that point.

10.  By: stundenull on 01-27-2012 03:18:53
of all the Japanese players mentioned in the previous posts, how many are surely going to the HOF?

11.  By: Lamda on 01-27-2012 03:19:14
Roto is simply pushing a plausible theory. Thats just what it is - a plausible theory. Obviously two possible options - Ichiro goes back to Japan either to play or retire, Or he stays here in the US to play. I'd say its 50/50 either way. One thing that supports him going back is the fact that both he and M's decided not to talk about an extension this offseason. That tells you one of two things - Ichiro doubts himself or the M's. If its himself then he'll retire. If its the M's then he'll go to another team to play his final years hoping to win. Either way, its a win-win for the M's.

12.  By: Edman on 01-27-2012 04:11:09
Jason, thanks for the comments about Yamauchi and the Mariners. Some just can't accept that he has little interest in the day to day affairs of Mariners. On another board of which you use to participate, some still go on and on about how much influence he has. These myths just keep perpetuating.

Just like some think Howard Lincoln is solely responsible for the Mariners payroll. It doesn't take a lot of effort to figure out that he is given a budget by the ownership group. Certainly, if Jack thinks there's an investment like Fielder (had it been possible or financially reasonable) that would benefit the team in the long-term, that Lincoln would go back to the ownership group and present a case. But this naive concept that Lincoln controls the budget isn't close to reality. No more than the President of a company can spend as much as he wants, without getting approval from the CEO, who represents the stockholders.

Clearly, Ichiro is going to have to perform if he wants to be paid like a superstar. Personally, I think he would do so regardless, because of the kind of player he is. Where he goes and for how much will be determined by how he plays this season. He won't get another $18 million a season. But, he might remain a Mariner, based on how he takes to his new role.

I further agree that it shows that Jack is in charge. I find it funny that some will not let go of the Lincoln-Armstrong fears, even though all evidence suggests they have little to do with the roster decisions.

Things are definitely changing. I think that the whole organization is starting to see what Jack has been preaching. It hurts in a way to not get a Fielder. But it's also reassuring that there haven't been any panic decisions made, simply trying to please a few people. They are decisions based on the overall health of the franchise.

13.  By: Edman on 01-27-2012 04:17:22
rotoenquire, which of those named Japanese players returned to Japan while they still had Major League opportunities? Most returned to Japan because they had to, if they wanted to continue to play, not because they felt a loyalty to return.

14.  By: Thin Red Line on 01-27-2012 05:30:56
Sasaki and Johjima certainly still had contracts.


15.  By: micahjr on 01-27-2012 06:12:27
I, for one, hope he earns the hell out of a new contract and we re-sign him by the all-star break when he has 115 hits, and 20 sb. I'd like to see him get a deal for around 10mil a year for two years with a 3rd year option for 7. That would likely be a fair deal.

I said this before, but Ichiro is likely the only opportunity the Mariners ever get at having a member of the 3000 hit club, he should do it in our uniform. I don't know what monetary value that has, but it has some sort of value. Maybe I'm just sentimental, but I unnavowedly love the guy. There hasn't been another player like him.

Who knows, maybe Ichiro had a bad season last year because he broke his routine by playing golf in the off-season. Probably not, but a guy can have a bad season and still be a good player.

16.  By: Gilligan on 01-27-2012 08:12:33
I feel that he will either finish here or Japan, I think he will get over 4000 hits combined . Hopefully he wears a mariners jersey in the HOF.

17.  By: Edman on 01-27-2012 09:22:41
#14, I know that, and would have been fine had he said that. But, he padded the list with guys who returned to Japan that could no longer play at the level required to compete in MLB. If Ichiro can no longer perform at that level, then he just might return to Japan. It's highly likely that if he bounces back and has a good season, he'll stay in America to persue getting 3000 hits.

18.  By: jgstecker on 01-27-2012 10:14:49
I don't entirely agree that Ichiro's return will be based solely on his on field performance. He probably can't repeat his disappointing 2011 numbers, but it seems likely that he will improve this year if his luck bounces back a little.

I think we saw with the Griffey extension that Jack is either not entirely in control or else he's willing to factor organizational loyalty into the equation.

19.  By: Rudolf on 01-27-2012 10:52:09
If he can get that OBP up over .350 again why not sign him up for two more years at a reasonable rate? Who doesn't love to watch a productive Ichiro play baseball?

That being said, he looked bad last year. I hear a lot of people claim bad luck, but he was putting a lousy swing on the ball that we had never seen.

20.  By: greentunic on 01-27-2012 11:08:49
It will be tough for Ichiro to get 3000 hits, unless a team lets him play into his age 41 season. He's 572 hits away. That will likely take 4 seasons at this point. I'm glad the M's don't seem to automatically want to sign him for 3000 hits.

People make a bigger deal about 3000 hits than they should when talking revenues. At most it will guarantee sellouts to three games I would think (just an educated guess).

I'd rather explore other FA's if he does not improve, or hopefully put Pimentero there in a few years if he grows into improved contact (apparently he has like 75-80 power?).

21.  By: Rudolf on 01-27-2012 11:24:16
Pimentel is 3-5 years away. He has a work to do on his contact/plate discipline like you said. And you may have his power overrated just a bit; from what I've read it's more like 60-70.

Wells could replace Ichiro in right if Carp/Catricala/Robinson/FA takes over in left. That would be a realistic possibility for 2013, (even 2012 if Ichiro tanks).

22.  By: valencia on 01-27-2012 13:22:26
3000 hits isn't about revenue. It's about being apart of history, about having a HoFer hit 3000 all in a Mariner uniform, having pride in your team and it's loyal players, and honestly for the price it costs (2 extra years at $15M-20M) the owners should be willing to pay it out of pocket if they have to. It's one of the things baseball FOs have to do, even if it doesn't make baseball sense.

Granted if he sucks like he did last year it might not happen, especially if our 3 OFers hit really well, but if he hits 210 hits again I don't see how they can't give it to him.

23.  By: rotoenquire on 01-27-2012 16:06:04
@14 as @13 pointed out there are two examples. I am not in the NCAA trying to pad my numbers. Who knows the reason's a lot of them returned to Japan. Maybe playing time, maybe being a backup was not good enough, maybe more money back home.

One of the main rules to coming to a belief is to have facts. In journalism they teach you to have at least 2 independent sources to say the same thing to make it printable. Or too find two examples to make a hypothesis plausible. I did that. Most of what we all talk about is hypotheses or conjecture. Determining from what we see, hear and read to come up with our own conclusion.

I never said Ichiro said this. I never said that it was a 100% certainty to happen. I put out what anyone can research and see on there own.

Japanese culture is based 100% on relationships. Business has its written rules as I did outline. NOT saying Ichiro or Mr. Yamouchi will ask the other to get involved. But and I stress BUT. If Ichiro were to talk to Mr. Mr. Yamouchi(they are friends) and ask for his involvement to stay in Seattle Mr. Yamouchi would by Japanese tradition be obligated to. Or if Mr. Yamouchi felt he should intervene on his own. Due to who Ichiro is and his status with the company and his native people in Japan.

It is a situation unique to the Mariners.

I also asked this of Mr. Stone via e-mail. He said Ichiro getting to 3000 Hits is too important. And as a result he thinks Ichiro will stay. I was thinking that in the back of my mind while I wrote my original statement. Of course this is all predicated on Ichiro having a bounce back year.

But I will say this. I believe the M's will be sold from Nintendo in a couple years. Nintendo has been hit with HUGE sales losses (profits 480 Mill USD in 2010 to 290 Mill USD in 2011). With plunging profits and a cash cow sitting there in the Mariners. A sale would ease a lot of there financial burden at least for awhile.

If you do not like what I say hit me back with facts. I am always open to being wrong. Everybody is at some point.

24.  By: dewey on 01-27-2012 16:25:24
So if one of the Japanese owners who own 51% of the team say give Ichiro 2 more years at 18 million Jack can say no? Not a chance the rule has been and allways will be he who owns the team can spend the money the way they want..It just happened in Detroit for 214 million..

25.  By: rotoenquire on 01-27-2012 20:35:36
I would hope that Ichiro comes off the books period. Sannon Drayer was on the radio today saying that she gets the feeling the 3000 mark is of no concern to the M's. As long as there is no mystery meeting in Japan. I would bet Ichiro either is done as an M at years end. Or Ichiro comes in at a considerable pay decrease.

Shannon also mentioned in interviewed she has heard an dread from Ichiro in Japan(granted translation differences in meanings do happen) She gets the feeling Ichiro is not taking ownership of his poor performance. And until he does that Shannon feels it could be same old same old this season.

Ichiro needs to change what he does. get away from the infield hit. That he cannot run through anymore and hit to the gaps which he did do well last year. Also that fable power output he has needs to come into play. We have all heard about Ichiro and Griffey having home run competitions during batting practice. Let's see that power.

26.  By: outfieldgrass on 01-30-2012 00:52:33
I really hope Ichiro returns to form, shows a bit more power in the 2/3 hole, and earns a contract extension in Seattle. It would be nice to see him finish his career in Seattle but its great to know he will no longer be extended solely based on his country of origin.

I understand that Ichiro is no ordinary Japanese baseball player. From what I gather he is much, much more than a great star. However, its time to look at the business and decide whats best for the future of this organization. Hopefully Jack Z makes the right decision.

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