| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-05-2010 |
UPDATE @3:45 PM PT Friday : Crazy day, huh? We'll have a write up for the prospects soon. Quick analysis -- well done. The Mariners got a middle-of-the-order bat for the next few years (potentially), Beaven has the ability to be a third starter, a utility infielder and a guy who could compete for late-inning situations. Nothing to dislike, even a little bit.
UPDATE @2:22 PM PT Friday : Being reported that the other prospects are RHP Blake Beavan, RHP Josh Lueke and 2B Matt Lawson. More on these guys soon.
UPDATE @2:07 PM PT Friday : Rosenthal and Sherman reporting deal done. This day is bizarre. I don't smoke and I need a cigarette -- as soon as I found out the other three I will let you guys know.
UPDATE @2:00 PM PT Friday : Reports are that Lee may have been dealt to the Rangers along with Mark Lowe for Justin Smoak and three others. I'm going to wait for confirmation before I get too excited -- but it could be spectacular. Stay tuned.
UPDATE @1:46 PM PT Friday : You step outside for a little while and this happens. Deal is currently off -- negotiations continue with the Rangers and Reds being mentioned the most -- we'll keep you posted. Weird.
UPDATE @10:46 AM PT Friday : A source has told PI that the third piece is likely Zach McAllister. Ken Rosenthal is reporting it as well. Wow.
UPDATE @10:30 AM PT Friday : ESPN Jayson Stark reports that the third player has yet to be agreed upon, but that it's likely a three-for-one deal.
We're now being told that it's not out of the question that it could end up a four-player deal, but that three is preferred by both clubs.
UPDATE @10:25 AM PT Friday : PI has learned that the third player will not be Austin Romine or Manny Banuelos. As the two players exchanged names Thursday both were taken off the table. But the player could possibly be C John Murphy or RHP Jose Ramirez. Either one would be a fine third player -- particularly Murphy.
UPDATE @9:25 AM PT Friday : Everything but the fat lady -- it'll be three players.
UPDATE @8:47 AM PT Friday: Hearing the potential hold-up is whether or not there will be one or two prospects added to Adams and Montero -- but it shouldn't prevent the deal from being done today.
UPDATE @8:05 AM PT Friday: The deal looks like it's pretty close to completion -- and appears to be Montero, IF David Adams and a third prospect -- more than likely a pitcher. We told you that the Yankees were hot and heavy on Lee -- here's some pretty substantial evidence.
UPDATE @6:45 AM PT Friday: Buster Olney and a few others are reporting that the Yankees may be on the verge of acquiring Lee for a collection of prospects that may/likely include Jesus Montero. As we find out more -- you'll be the first to know. It appears the M's are pretty serious about getting this done soon -- let's see if this is a ploy to get more out of the Twins and Rangers.
UPDATE @7:45 PM PT Thursday: One front office executive of a club that feels they are no longer in the race for Lee says he believes the Twins will get the deal done, but "probably next week."
He explains: "I just don't think they (Seattle) are going to come down off their stance so quickly. There's no reason to. So a club will give in or Seattle will come down some, but neither are happening today it sounds like."
If that is true, it probably means Lee faces the Yankees at Safeco Field Friday in front of the Twins, Rangers, Reds, Mets and Yankees, who are all expected to have scouts in attendance. One team not expected to see Lee Friday is Philadelphia, who are pretty much out of it -- and the Mets aren't among the favorites at this stage, either.
1. Twins
2. Rangers
3. Reds
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UPDATE @10:36 PM PT Wednesday: With reports coming out Wednesday night that the Reds have exchanged ideas with the Mariners in regards to Lee, the Twins actual offer being Wilson Ramos and Kevin Slowey -- which is also untrue to date -- and talks with the Rangers heating up, Prospect Insider has learned that the rumor of the Rangers offering Justin Smoak is not true, but that the talks were left at a "we will get back to you" level, apparently when the Mariners let the Rangers know that a match isn't likely without the switch-hitting first baseman in the package.
No actual offer was made, and it would mean Seattle is paying the remaining salary on Lee's contract for 2010 -- which is apparently something they would be willing to do for the right trade package.
I would believe the Twins are the favorites, but without Aaron Hicks in the deal there isn't an obvious match with the Mariners. Smoak is that "Jack" player that we deemed untouchable just two days ago. If he is now in play -- and that is a big if -- that changes everything.
In the last 36 hours, things have changed and the Mets might be on the outside looking in on acquiring Lee. If we had to handicap the sweepstakes as of right now, I don't know who blinks first, the Twins or the Rangers.
1. Minnesota Twins
1. Texas Rangers
3. New York Mets
4. New York Yankees
5. Tampa Bay/Philadelphia
I think the only way Tampa or Philly end up with Lee is in a three-way trade, and if a three-way can be put together, St. Louis, Detroit, the Dodgers and possibly the Chicago White Sox, who are now without Jake Peavy for appears to be the rest of the season, could also be serious players.
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UPDATE @11:57 AM PT: Several sources from multiple clubs are saying the best the Mariners can do right now is the Twins' offer, which has not officially been made.
The Mariners are aggressively making their own calls and proposing deals to clubs now, in an attempt to see if they can improve what they think the best offer may be at this point.
The Yankees and Mariners aren't currently talking, but the champs are very much interested in acquiring Lee, while the Mets are still delusional in thinking they have a good chance.
As of right now, the Twins are far and away the favorite to land Lee, and the Rangers and Yankees might be the only two teams that can change that.
UPDATE @12:45 PM PT: PI is hearing that the Reds have deemed the price too steep -- they aren't giving up Jay Bruce or Joey Votto -- and the Mets believe they are still very much in the race to acquire Lee.
The Rangers have the talent to spare, but aren't trading Justin Smoak and may require the Mariners to cover most of what's left of Lee's salary to make any deal possible.
It's unlikely the Mariners send $4-5 million in cash to Texas, but half might not be out of the question. It would, however, require that the Rangers sweeten the deal, which may end all discussions.
UPDATE @11:03 AM PT: MLB.com's Peter Gammons tweeted Tuesday morning that the buzz in Tampa included word that a potential 3-way deal including B.J. Upton was flying around the ballpark.
There is no indication whether the Mariners would end up with Upton or the third team held the key to the M's return package for Lee, but there is the thought that whatever the club acquires for Lee can always be flipped again this summer or over the winter for a piece that better fits the Mariners needs.
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UPDATE @ 9:24 PM PT: A second source considers the report that Hicks and Ramos have been offered to Seattle for Lee "bad information."
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UPDATE @ 9:09 PM PT: AOL Fanhouse's Jeff Fletcher is reporting that the Twins have offered Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos for Lee, but I'm being told as of 9:10 PM PT that the M's have asked for a package including those two and the Twins have not said yes or no -- but that they have NOT made such an offer.
I am also being led to believe that more than just Lee could be headed to Minnesota if the Twins part with a package including Hicks.
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If you haven't heard by now, A Detroit radio station has been reporting Monday night that a deal between Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins involving Cliff Lee is done.
I'm here to tell you there is NOT a deal done between the two clubs, per a Twins representative.
A front office executive from another club shares what he was told about the Twins and Lee, saying that the M's may be demanding that switch-hitting center fielder Aaron Hicks be involved in the deal, and the Twins have balked, understandably.
Despite Hicks not being a "Jack," It would be a really nice get to add him to the system in Seattle.
The two sides have talked recently, as have the Mariners with the Reds, Mets, Rangers and Yankees.
The Mariners are sticking to their guns in what they want in return for Lee which has made it tough for some clubs to believe they are even contenders for the lefty's services.
If the M's back off their "MLB-ready bat" demand, the total value of the package may have to exceed what we originally thought, or the Mariners may keep Lee beyond the All-star break.
If we had to re-rank the contenders, this is how it would look like as of Monday night.
1. Texas Rangers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. New York Mets
4. New York Yankees
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Philadelphia Phillies
6. Field
There have been some rumors flying around that the Dodgers and Brewers could be involved as a third team, which could expand the field back to include the Cardinals and Tigers.
The Reds have told Prospect Insider that Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are off limits in such a trade.
lee-to-twins-not-done
Comments
The following 308 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: StandinPat on 07-05-2010 20:09:56 "The Reds have told Prospect Insider that Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are off limits in such a trade." I wouldn't want Votto anyway, dude isn't even an All-Star... |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-05-2010 20:17:22 You stole that from Chris Crawford! http://twitter.com/ChrisCrawfordPI/status/17830297990 |
| 3. By: jd7979 on 07-05-2010 20:20:56 Would Hicks and Ramos satisfy you if your in Jack Z's shoes Jason? Or is that a pipe dream return for Lee? |
| 4. By: StandinPat on 07-05-2010 20:21:03 Ha! Just followed the link. I don't do twitter, but apparently great minds think alike. Seriously though, what a hose job, Votto has been 3 times as valuable as Howard so far this year. |
| 5. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 20:23:04 Loving the fact that the Ms are not only sticking to their guns, but they are looking to get the best players, not necessarily the ones closet to the bigs. Which means they are gonna do this thing right. |
| 6. By: Chris Crawford on 07-05-2010 20:31:20 Theivery! Just kidding, but it's oh so true. Hicks and Ramos would shock me? But at the same time I'm expecting to be shocked. Let's "hope" the trade happens before our podcast -- which is going to be July 12th at 6 PM PST. |
| 7. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-05-2010 20:38:32 Kyle Gibson misses a scheduled start and Ramos sits the game out?? Are we asking for Ramos, Hicks, and Gibson? Seems like that would be a nice return. |
| 8. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 20:41:20 I would take that package Great Pumpkin. Like Jason said, we dont get "Jack" but if thats the package we are def. getting everything else and a ton of value. |
| 9. By: burn31226 on 07-05-2010 20:51:06 The Great Pumpkin, Even if the Twins put Kyle Gibson in the trade he would have to be a PTBNL, because he signed last august 17th. So he could be traded on august 17th of this year. That would be an awesome package if the mariners do get that. |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-05-2010 20:55:46 The twins aren't trading Hicks in any deal for a rental. So if he is involved, the M's might be sending League, Aardsma, or Lopez and possibly a young player such as Halman or Liddi or even Saunders along with Lee. |
| 11. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 20:56:47 RE 10: that would still be worth it though, wouldnt it? |
| 12. By: jgstecker on 07-05-2010 21:03:02 I love the idea of dealing with Texas. I'll give them a World Series this year to level the playing field a little more over the next seven years. Is Justin Smoak really untouchable? After getting a top SP, finding a legit 1B for the rest of the year has to be next on their list. We've got one of those to spare too. |
| 13. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-05-2010 21:05:34 Honestly, if we get a core of Gibson-Hicks-Ramos package, along with an arm like Benson or Manship or another nice get like Revere....if the price tag is Lee-Aardsma-Halman? I do that deal. And start thinking of when my rotation could 1-4 be Felix-Pineda-Gibson-Paxton. I'm a lot less inclined to add Saunders. |
| 14. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 21:10:51 rocketdawg, that 1-4 would be downright disgusting. Felix and 3 #2 type SP...that would give us a stronger rotation than we have this year but would set us up for the long haul. All 3 of those guys could all be ready sometime next year too. I really think we need to get a TOR type SP in a deal for Lee, I really think its crucial. Not sayin its gibson, but add another young MOR-TOR guy to our rotation and we will start going places. It would gives us a staff thats not only dominant but dirt cheap after felix. |
| 15. By: Blowgun7 on 07-05-2010 21:15:21 I'd be happy with Ramos + Gibson and pretty much anything else they want to throw in. This is a rental situation. |
| 16. By: JohnMcD on 07-05-2010 21:17:17 Ya I would be happy with Hicks and Ramos |
| 17. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 21:20:15 AOL fanhouse is reporting that weve been offered Hicks and Ramos |
| 18. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-05-2010 21:21:19 I'm greedy, I want all three of them- plus change. Especially if they want a David Aardsma or Brandon League and a prospect-with-upside from our ranks, in addition to Lee. |
| 19. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 21:28:45 Way to burst our bubbles JAC! |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-05-2010 21:30:44 I think the Twins MAY HAVE kind of said "we'd consider that if we got more than Lee..." But two Twins people have now shot that down, so... |
| 21. By: shemberry on 07-05-2010 21:49:55 Jason, Do you think it is possible that the M's got this information to the radio station in Detroit in an effort to say, "time to make your final bids"? |
| 22. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-05-2010 21:53:14 I think the Twins are trying to figure out if they're bidding against themselves. |
| 23. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-05-2010 21:56:26 Addendum to #22- Keep in mind, I'm realizing there's been talks with other teams besides the Twins- but in terms of pure offers, maybe the Twins are trying to figure our how much they have to part with in relation to others out there. Making sure they don't have to part with the bottom dollar, so to speak. |
| 24. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 21:58:27 if we go Lee +, then we better get more than hicks and ramos. i want a SP too. rocketdawg, i see what you are saying to a point but at the same time, we dont need to trade Lee, the twins need to trade for him. the same goes for all the teams interested. they need him more than us, so they better pony up |
| 25. By: Blowgun7 on 07-05-2010 22:01:12 If we can get Hicks and Ramos, screw the SP. I'd give them Lee, League or DA, Halman, Liddi w/e Hicks is a Top 15 prospect. Ramos is a Top 50 prospect. M's farm is vaulted into the Top 10 if they get these guys and sign their picks. Even if you don't love that Hicks is 3+ years away, the mere presence of him in your system makes you a top option to trade for whatever young star comes on the market, that another team can't afford to pay. |
| 26. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-05-2010 22:03:43 Baseballman, I totally agree. Reference my admitted greed a few posts back. I'll be disappointed if Zduriencik doesn't stick to them guns the whole way. But I have 100% faith he will. |
| 27. By: StandinPat on 07-05-2010 22:13:01 "I'd give them Lee, League or DA, Halman, Liddi w/e" "M's farm is vaulted into the Top 10 if they get these guys and sign their picks." I'd rather have wins than street cred for my farm system. No way I'd give up that much for an OF 3+ years away from being able to help and a young C who is quite possibly only marginally better than the young C you currently have. I don't have any issue with adding additional pieces and making it Lee+, but I want a HAUL. |
| 28. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 22:16:40 yes, I totally agree Pat. the ball is in our court. it doesnt have to be a fair deal for teams, or else Lee would have already been gone. Jack Z needs to be wowed or he will keep Lee and pretend like we are "going for it" this year, get safecos attendance up and collect his 2 draft picks for next year. if a team really wants Lee sooner than later, or if at all, they are going to have to overpay to get him. its their season thats in jeopardy of not making the postseason/WS not ours... |
| 29. By: Blowgun7 on 07-05-2010 22:20:32 It's not about street cred for your farm. It's about building high quality depth throughout your organization so that you can bring guys up to contribute or deal them for top players on the trading block. If obtaining Hicks costs us Brandon League and Alex Liddi, then so be it. We'd be lucky if it did. When you add a prospect like Hicks you are in every conversation that comes up in regards to obtaining star players on the block. Hicks may be 3-4 yrs away from helping the Mariners on the field, but he instantly helps them bigtime if they want to make a deal to bring in a ready made star player on the block come the offseason. |
| 30. By: Chris Crawford on 07-05-2010 22:35:39 Ya -- I really do tend to agree with the sentiments of number 29. Jason and I have not talked about it a whole lot ,but Aaron Hicks is a beast -- one of the twenty five best prospects in baseball in my opinion. Guy has one of the strongest arms in baseball, has shown good plate discipline, and the power is likely to come. Probably can play CF, but would be an upper echelon right-fielder. Getting Aaron Hicks would make me really happy -- I just don't think it's gonna happen. |
| 31. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 22:48:29 Baker is saying possible 2 for 3...maybe even 3 for 3 |
| 32. By: Blowgun7 on 07-05-2010 22:51:46 Eh, he was just speculating. No way do the Twins deal Ramos, Hicks, Gibson for Lee, DA, and Lopez. |
| 33. By: baseballman on 07-05-2010 22:56:09 no he said that he kept hearing that it could be a 2 for 3 swap, thats not speculating. that third player doesnt necessarily have to be gibson though, but you never know |
| 34. By: Juan Valdez on 07-06-2010 00:54:54 I know next to nothing about Aaron Hicks. However, after a quick glance at his numbers, I am finding myself somewhat underwhelmed. I'm seeing a guy that turns 21 in October and is in his 3rd professional season. He's repeating low-A ball and is in no way dominating the league offensively. He's slugging a whopping .408. What am I not seeing in the numbers? What is it about this guy that the rest of you are so excited about? |
| 35. By: VikingArthur on 07-06-2010 03:27:53 #34... sometimes prospect lovers fall in love with draft position/tools. Yeah a 21 year old slugging .408 in Low A is nothing to get excited about. I suppose we could hope that he becomes Jeremy Reed. It seems that the M's are sticking with the under-200 lb rule. Are you an unintimidating character guy who weighs under 200 lbs? Play for the Mariners! We need a guy who can make a difference for Lee not a couple of guys who profile as slightly above average players at best. I'd rather swing for the fences on a boom or bust prospect than this Ramos kid. A .650-750 OPS (at best) catcher and a 21 Low-A player slugging .408? Laughable. Go find a guy who might be able to hit the ball and scare pitchers. |
| 36. By: Chris Crawford on 07-06-2010 03:28:17 Great question, Juan, and we'll go deeper into the situation when/if (if more likely) the deal were to happen. First in regards to his age, this is pretty typical. You don't see players of his talent level repeat A-ball a whole lot -- but the Twins are in no rush. In regards to the slugging percentage -- if you look at the numbers, Hicks has slugged by month: 463, 313, 447, 571. Three of four months levels of 'acceptable' power numbers. He had an abysmal may where he OPS'd .633 -- and because of that his numbers don't look all that spectacular. But his OPS by month outside of that awful May is .890, .835, .863. The most important thing to look at though is the tools have produced results -- minus one bad month. He's getting on base, he can run, he has one of the best arms in the minors and has pretty-good instincts. There's a good reason Keith Law likes Hicks so much -- he's good. |
| 37. By: bodhizefa on 07-06-2010 03:37:24 I've seen a lot of Twins fans up in arms about giving up the likes of Hicks and Ramos. A 21-year-old A-baller with a slugging percentage barely above .400 and a catcher who is probably only marginally better than Adam Moore doesn't exactly strike me as something Twins fans should be that upset about. Sure, they've both got some solid potential, but Cliff Lee is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he gives the Twins a deadly 1-2 playoff combo along with Liriano. Hicks is years away and Ramos, like all catchers, has as much chance of flaming out as he does making it in the big leagues. Cliff Lee plus two compensatory draft picks seems like a pretty fair price, in my opinion. Greedily, I'd sure love it if the M's somehow wrestled Neshek away from Minnesota, too. |
| 38. By: Galway on 07-06-2010 06:34:20 So May is the outlier in the data. What was going on in May? Adjusting, health, off field, ..... For me, the answers to the questions that arise in outliers is really informative and too often disregarded as just an outlier that is tossed out. Disecting May could tell you a lot (good or bad). |
| 39. By: Blowgun7 on 07-06-2010 08:09:09 I really don't know what some of you guys expect us to get, if you are underwhelmed with Hicks and Ramos. We aren't getting Justin Smoak, Dominic Brown, or any other elite prospect who is near ML ready. The only elite prospects we have a chance at, are guys like Hicks who are multiple years away. Nobody in their right mind is going to deal a near ready elite prospect. It just doesn't make sense for a rental. If you are cool taking comp picks over a current Top 15 and Top 50 prospect then bless you guys. You are quite the gamblers. As for Ramos, let's stop dogging him as a prospect. He's a solid defender with a very strong arm, and he showed plenty of offensive ability in AA. I'm not writing him off based on a couple months of AAA at-bats.. According to a lot of Twins fans it's not a matter of skill, but motivation with him. He's a guy who had a great year in AA, killed the ball in the VWL, killed the ball in spring training, and then had to deal with heading back to the minors when he thought he should have been on the big league roster. He then got called up to the majors and had a pretty nice string of games, then got demoted again. He seems to me like a guy who got demoralized that he had to keep going back to the minors, when he feels he's ready for the big leagues. I have little doubt that Ramos is going to be a good ML catcher for quite awhile. He's going to give you at least with .750 OPS with solid defensive skills, and 20 homers. |
| 40. By: John_S on 07-06-2010 08:12:08 "Greedily, I'd sure love it if the M's somehow wrestled Neshek away from Minnesota, too." I'm sorry, but why would you want Neshek? He's been oft injured since last year and is a reliever which is the easiest position to replace. |
| 41. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-06-2010 09:05:02 Jason, how do you feel about the BJ Upton talk? Gammons tweeted about talks of a potential Lee-Upton swap. |
| 42. By: Juan Valdez on 07-06-2010 10:06:40 Chris, thanks for the info on Hicks. It sounds like people expect him to start exploding (in a good way) any day now. Do you know what happened with him last year? Was he injured? |
| 43. By: Edman on 07-06-2010 10:55:55 I honestly don't get jacked-up about prospects. I enjoy tracking them and their progress. But in trades, it's like having a lottery ticket with two numbers scratched off, that match a winning ticket. What will the other four be? Too hard to tell. Baseball has many interests. The reality is, that having a great farm system doesn't guarantee a winning team. It certainly helps sustaining long-term success. But, unless you have an incredible farm system, it's not going to suddently turn things around over night. I know some foam at the mouth when they discuss prospects. And, after all, that's what this messageboard is about. And, nobody should assume that getting good prospects in return for Lee is going to turn things around right away. It's not. The supporting cast needs help, and the farm is part of that. And, for that reason, Jack should hold out for one or two guys who can help right away, IMHO. He's got his own crop of kids working their way up. And, don't let yourself be fooled by numbers. I have one rule, I never get too excited by numbers put up by any kid below AA. It's way too easy to hit bad pitching. This is where your scouts are important. They are the ones who are paid to use stop watches, video, and make observations to determine if a kid has a shot against major league pitching. I've been excited about several A ball kids, only to watch them become average by the time they get to AA. |
| 44. By: chrisd on 07-06-2010 11:22:31 Rosenthal says, "Ramos, 21, is the Twins’ No. 2 prospect according to Baseball America, though he has been slowed by an oblique injury and has only a .563 OPS at Triple-A." Also, in this article he states that Hicks is #1 prospect and now that they are in their new park and they are willing to spend more money, they need a #1 starter, they plan on signing Lee to a long term contract. Lee wants a winner and maybe the Twins are the team for him. |
| 45. By: chrisd on 07-06-2010 11:24:59 Oops, the article does not state they are willing to spend the money or planning on signing Lee. That is my take. Here is article, http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Cliff-Lee-Seattle-Mariners-Minnesota-Twins-070510 |
| 46. By: Juan Valdez on 07-06-2010 11:28:44 Responding to chrisd - not sure if the Twins would have a chance to sign Cliff Lee long term, but man it sure would be nice to see him sign with a team like that rather than the Yankees. |
| 47. By: shortstop9 on 07-06-2010 11:35:34 Ramos and Hicks are not enough -make them add Danny Valencia and give them Lopez also. I would rather have Wilmer Flores,Josh Thole,F. Martinez from the Mets. |
| 48. By: chrisd on 07-06-2010 11:37:33 And for that reason, Juan, maybe that will compel the Yankees to give up Jesus Montero. Let's get a bidding war going. The Twins may have a hand up on the signing if he is with their club. And they need a #1 and who better than Lee to be that pitcher. They would not give up these prospects if they did not think they had a chance to sign him |
| 49. By: tommyo2222 on 07-06-2010 12:45:15 For what it's worth, just a little FYI... Andy Hall, my golfing buddy coached Aaron Hicks at Long Beach Wilson High School. I've had the opportunity watch Aaron in high school many times as he led Wilson to the Baseball America National Champion in 2007. Not only was he a 5 tool OFer he was a heck of a pitcher and decent golfer. I'd love nothing more than to go to Anahiem with coach Hall and watch Aaron star for my M's. |
| 50. By: Stormton on 07-06-2010 13:04:26 Well, hard to blame the Reds there. That would have been amazing, though. |
| 51. By: mymrbig on 07-06-2010 13:43:16 My only hope is that once the M's find a deal they like, they don't wait too long to pull the trigger. I keep thinking back to the offseason when Santana was traded. There were many rumored offers that ended up being a good bit better than what the Twins accepted. Maybe some (or all) of those rumored offers were false, but I always had the impression the Twins let things drag on too long and should have made a move before other teams could re-think giving up good prospects. Hopefully the M's are also ready to absorb some salary if it will get better prospects. Perfect example of this is the Dodgers' acquisition of Casey Blake. They gave up Carlos Santana in the deal because the Indians were willing to cover Blake's salary. |
| 52. By: bodhizefa on 07-06-2010 14:03:24 "I'm sorry, but why would you want Neshek? He's been oft injured since last year and is a reliever which is the easiest position to replace." Oft injured? He's coming back from Tommy John surgery, so I'm not exactly sure how that's "oft injured". He had one setback but is now pitching in the minors with no issues (and he's only in the minors because he called the Twins organization out about misdiagnosing him for the second time in as many injuries). And as for why I'd want him, have you bothered looking at our bullpen lately? It's awful. There's a solid argument to be made that Neshek would be the best reliever in our pen if he can perform at his '06-'08 levels. Also, being the easiest position to replace doesn't actually mean that it's easy to find them. It's only a relative adjective in this case, and since it's so hard to find almost any position in baseball, being the "easiest position to replace" still doesn't make it a cakewalk. |
| 53. By: slick on 07-06-2010 14:26:13 I am with #47 I think I would rather do a deal with the mets. I think a lot depends on how the M's brass like Ramos. I think alot of Hicks value is based on projection if he is moved to corner outfield I think some of his value is dimished because I just dont know how much power he will top out at. Even though Flores is probably not going to give you great glove work on the corners I think his bat is much safer bet his strike out rate are very low for someone around 800 OPS. Plus it is not like the higher drafted teenagers are having trouble hitting MWL pitching this year. |
| 54. By: Hawhuskonics on 07-06-2010 14:36:49 Jason or Chris, I just subscribed but I am having a problem with the link to email and let you know, so I'm just going to do it here. my email is hawhuskonics@gmail.com |
| 55. By: Juan Valdez on 07-06-2010 14:47:35 In my opinion, an offer of Ramos and Hicks is still low. I realize that Hicks is highly regarded, and I believe everything that's been written about his talent, but even discounting his bad month this season, I still can't get over the lack of performance. A guy with that much talent should be tearing it up in A-ball and knocking on the door at Double-A. In my view, the deal is still lacking. In fact, for the Twins to insist Hicks is untouchable strikes me as somewhat ludicrous. |
| 56. By: Juan Valdez on 07-06-2010 14:53:44 Were the Mariners seriously asking for Joey Votto or Jay Bruce? As much as I want to see the M's do well in this deal, that seems pretty unrealistic. |
| 57. By: Sapo44 on 07-06-2010 16:37:51 No love for Anthony Vasquez I see. I understand he is a little old for High A, but his numbers are very impressive none the less. I know he doesn't impress anyone since he is not a velocity guy, but velocity is the single most overrated talent in pitching, ask any scout. Command and control, changing speeds, upsetting hitters timing, all rank ahead of velocity in importance. Anthony doesn't walk anybody, and all he does is get guys out, like Jaimie Moyer and Tom Glavine did, and like Jason Vargas is doing now. |
| 58. By: dawgncarolina on 07-06-2010 17:59:11 "velocity is the single most overrated talent in pitching, ask any scout" lol You don't post as mydquin at Seattle Hardball, do you? |
| 59. By: John_S on 07-06-2010 18:35:55 "Oft injured? He's coming back from Tommy John surgery, so I'm not exactly sure how that's "oft injured". " 2007 - Shut down due to arm fatigue 2008 - Tore the UCL and later had tommy john surgery 2009 - missed season to tommy john surgery 2010 - Missed time due to inflamation in his finger. He is oft injured. Granted when he's pitched he's done well, but he is oft injured. Last year, the M's pen was a strength. Relievers are volatile and are easily replaced. |
| 60. By: StandinPat on 07-07-2010 10:16:01 Jason, What's your thoughts on the Reds Todd Frazier? Seems like he'll prob be an above average bat from the right side and has the ability to play a couple of positions. Seems like he'd have to be a decent piece, not as a front-liner, but maybe as a tertiary piece. |
| 61. By: safecochatter on 07-07-2010 10:41:56 Tampa didn't make top 5 teams interested in Lee. but i think they are moving up the ladder. nice piece came online a couple hours ago at tbo.com. ownership has given the green light to pursue Lee. must be the tweet by Gammons has some teeth. but i'm not terribly excited about upton. and the longoria fight doesn't help. i guess upton could bust out of his bad year,so to speak. and there is upside there.... http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/jul/07/sp-now-its-time-for-rays-to-be-bold/sports-rays/ |
| 62. By: Jimabbottsrighthand on 07-07-2010 13:25:59 I don't quite follow the logic of going after Ramos. Its clear we need a catching upgrade, but is Ramos really much of an upgrade over Moore? In the eyes of most of the scouting reports I've seen, the difference seems to be fairly marginal. I realize you can never have enough young catching depth, but with so many other holes, I would think we'd only look for a package centered on a catcher if that is far and away the best deal we could. |
| 63. By: brockfs1 on 07-07-2010 14:37:14 Jason, With Peavy being placed on the DL today with the possibility of being out the rest of the year... would the Chi-sox show interest? |
| 64. By: shortstop9 on 07-07-2010 14:42:42 I think another team who has very interesting prospects that match up with us is Detroit. OF Clete Thomas,Casper Wells,Ryan Raburn,Brennan Boesch, 2B Scott Sizemore, 1B Ryan Strieby, C Alex Avila.They probably want to keep Boesch & Avila, but Raburn,Strieby,&Sizemore along with another lower level prospect would work. |
| 65. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-07-2010 14:59:58 brockfs1, They might show interest, sure. But I don't think the WhiteSox have enough of anything we'd want. I don't think I like that WE'RE the ones making "aggressive calls" at this stage, trying to up antes and drum up offers. That must mean Zduriencik is truly concerned the market for Lee just isn't going to grow on its own. Which means the odds of underwhelming return for Cliff Lee significantly increase. |
| 66. By: blackout on 07-07-2010 15:03:13 So let me get this straight: the rumored centerpiece(s) for the Twins are Ramos/Hicks, Monetero for the Yanks and Smoak for the Rangers, but the Reds are expected to give up Votto or Bruce? Seems fair. |
| 67. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-07-2010 15:05:16 Shortstop9, Sizemore and Raburn would both make very interesting pieces for us. Everybody and their mother is a Brennan Boesch fan right now, and I suspect they don't give him up. My gut says they still regard Porcello as untouchable. But maybe Avila less so. Avila, Sizemore, Raburn and an arm would be an offer I'd think about. Only problem is, as of 3:02 PST July 7th,2010...there is absolutely no indication that Detroit is even thinking about getting into this donnybrook. |
| 68. By: Slack on 07-07-2010 15:05:37 Smoak is off limits as far as the Rangers are concerned. |
| 69. By: mymrbig on 07-07-2010 15:18:19 Not to get sidetracked, but I'm not a Brennan Boesch fan right now. .384 BABIP is completely unsustainable, particularly if you factor in his 16.9% infield fly ball percentage. Its nice that he seems to have cut his K% and increased his BB% over his minor league career. But the sample sizes are still small to believe he can maintain those improvements. And I strongly question whether either is sustainable when he's swining at 42.7% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone (well above major league average). Not saying I hate the guy at all, but 251 plate appearances don't make him a long-term contributor. As for Cliff Lee, I'm starting to burn-out. Trade him already so I can stop hitting F5!!! |
| 70. By: mymrbig on 07-07-2010 15:34:43 F5 being the refresh button on my computer, not some obsure reference about a flyout to the 3rd baseman. It will be interesting to see how the Mariners balance "now" versus "ceiling". For instance, if they hypothetically had the choice between Ramos+Hicks, or Ramos+Slowey, which do they choose? Hicks has more upside, but is further away and has more risk. Slowey has limited upside (#3 starter), but has less risk, goes into the rotation immediately, and he helps the Mariners in 2011 & 2012. |
| 71. By: rjfrik on 07-07-2010 15:56:52 The Whitesox have other issues besides Pitching, most notably their hitting and at 2b. I was hoping we could trade them Lopez for Flowers. Seems like a win win, especially when the owner has specifically said he wants AJ resigned for the next couple of years. I would much rather have Flowers over Ramos. It would be like the Indians grabbing Santana (who I wish we had, what a stud) for Blake a few years back. Make it happen Jack!!! |
| 72. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-07-2010 16:05:24 Mymrbig, 'Sokay, I at least knew what'cha meant by the F5 button. As far as those options go? I'd say Ramos-Hicks, by far and a long way. We have a guy who could become a legit #3 starting pitcher in Michael Pineda- in relatively short order- and we don't really have a guy like Hicks in our system. We have some interesting bats in our system, to be sure..but we don't have a Grady Sizemore-with-more-power type like this guy. I realize he hasn't killed a level of competition yet, but with tools like that? I stay patient. (Unless it's Greg Halman, who just irritates every forlorn scouting nerve in me!) Flowers over Ramos..hmm..I haven't put tabs on Flowers at all this year. I wonder what Jason or Chris think about that one? |
| 73. By: randallball on 07-07-2010 16:24:31 Flowers has taken a gigantic leap backwards this season as his plate discipline is basically gone. |
| 74. By: safecochatter on 07-07-2010 16:45:13 if Jack is making calls,it could also mean he's got what he wants,and is calling to make sure all bets are down.. |
| 75. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-07-2010 17:00:39 Hadn't thought about that, safecochatter. Good point. |
| 76. By: shemberry on 07-07-2010 17:25:55 Sorry to ask this here, but is there still going to be a chat at 7 pm tonight? It was on the main page earlier, but now it is not. Thanks. |
| 77. By: baseballman on 07-07-2010 17:44:04 I was wonderin the same thing shem. If there is, could someone ask JAC about any IFA updates? I dont think ill be able to be at my computer when the chat is going on. thanks |
| 78. By: Chris Crawford on 07-07-2010 17:54:32 Not sure if we're doing the chat tonight or not, guys. We will keep you posted, been really really as you can probably imagine. We will do it ASAP. |
| 79. By: shemberry on 07-07-2010 17:55:50 No problem. Just wondering where I needed to be at 7. |
| 80. By: jd7979 on 07-07-2010 18:55:17 If no chat do you guys have any updates? |
| 81. By: shortstop9 on 07-07-2010 19:34:39 The White Sox have real nice prospects.That OF from LSU,Vaciedo 3B, Hudson P,Adams 2B,and Flowers. I really like Streiby from Det he can hit. |
| 82. By: Chris Crawford on 07-07-2010 20:07:35 Nothing right now. The White Sox don't have a package they could put together that I'd take for Cliff Lee. Not a Hudson fan, Mitchell is hurt, and Flowers isn't getting moved/isn't worth Lee. Wouldn't doubt if Kenny Williams tries, but doubt he can do it without a three-team trade. |
| 83. By: randallball on 07-07-2010 20:09:44 I'm really hoping for a 3-team deal. Just seems like we could make out with a better overall fit...and possibly unload Aardsma or Lopez (*crosses fingers*). |
| 84. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-07-2010 20:43:54 What about Gordon Beckham headlining a deal. There was a lot of hype around him before this year. Maybe Beckham, Flowers, and Gavin Flloyd? |
| 85. By: Lailoken on 07-07-2010 20:49:52 Some of the chatter about a three-way trade with Tampa Bay & Washington is interesting. Lee & Dunn to Tampa. That's the type of package that could get Aybar, Brignac, &/or Upton in a Mariners uniform provided the Mariners send cash. Washington can still get some players too: I firmly nominate Jose Lopez. If it takes Aardsma as well, okay. The Rays have both Bartlett & Zobrist to play short, & Rodriguez for 2B if not Zobrist there. Sonnastine (or maybe even Garza), Lopez, & prospects to the Nationals... How does that sound? |
| 86. By: Blowgun7 on 07-07-2010 20:57:51 Brignac and Aybar? Eh. That package doesn't have enough upside in it IMO. Aybar hasn't shown much the last two seasons to believe he's going to be a good regular. Brignac is okay, but that overall package doesn't excite me. |
| 87. By: Chris Crawford on 07-07-2010 20:58:33 84 -- Beckham is better than this, but it wouldn't be enough to headline a deal. 85 -- Tampa trades Garza and I eat a hat. But Tampa does have stuff that I'd be interested in. Maybe you get something like Brignac and Matt Moore? Purely speculative. |
| 88. By: Juan Valdez on 07-07-2010 21:45:49 I don't want anything to do with BJ Upton. He sucks and he has an attitude. |
| 89. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-07-2010 21:57:04 Adam Dunn is a type A, so the Nats would need a sweet package to move him. I'm sure the Rays have the players to make it happen, but for them to get Lee and Dunn they would be giving up mucho prospecto. Although, the Nats have a top Catching prospect, which Jack is said to be looking for. How about Lee and Dunn to the Rays, Brignac , Matt Moore, and Derek Norris (Nats C prospect, Law rated #31 overall) to the M's, and Upton and Wade Davis to the Nats. |
| 90. By: FelixElRey on 07-07-2010 22:45:38 It's funny to me that a sticking point with the Rangers is their unwillingness to trade Scheppers (per MLBTraderumors), and all we had to do was draft him instead of Baron (or Franklin). I do recall everyone on this board hoping they would. Ugh. |
| 91. By: Stormton on 07-07-2010 22:51:02 Wow, thanks for the update Jason. I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but I'm going to explode if we get Smoak. |
| 92. By: brockfs1 on 07-07-2010 22:53:52 Stormton, Pretty sure everyone will explode if we get Smoak!!! |
| 93. By: Juan Valdez on 07-07-2010 23:07:47 I'm less than knowledgeable about the Rangers. What else do they need in a deal that could get them to give up Justin Smoak? |
| 94. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-07-2010 23:20:08 T.R. Sullivan reported that the Rangers are hesitant to give up Scheppers and Perez but Smoak and Holland could be in play? That seem a bit weird to anyone else? Scheppers is good and all but to deem him untouchable and not Smoak is a bit bass-ackwards, imo. |
| 95. By: rjfrik on 07-07-2010 23:21:49 Beckham, Flowers and Floyd wouldn't be enough for you Chris? I would take that deal in a heartbeat. |
| 96. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-07-2010 23:23:38 Beckham would get eaten alive by Safeco. |
| 97. By: Edman on 07-07-2010 23:24:16 #83, hoping a trade includes Aardsma or Lopez? You want League closing? Lopez isn't the problem. Everyone's raising concerns about the offense. How about a damn bullpen that can preserve a win? Losing Lowe really hurt. But Aardsma looks like Mariano Rivera on this club. Games are already hard enough to watch, but to throw Josh Wilson in at third and League closing, is a horrifying thought. |
| 98. By: JohnMcD on 07-07-2010 23:25:41 Wow Crusty that is interesting. I will go crazy if we get Smoak! |
| 99. By: Blowgun7 on 07-07-2010 23:37:07 I can't imagine Texas would have to give up anything else, if they offered Smoak. The Minnesota package looks like crap right now the way Ramos is playing in AAA and Slowey is pitching. I know stats aren't everything, but can Ramos at least show a pulse in AAA? He comicaly bad right now. If Hicks isn't in that package, I don't know if I have any interest in dealing with the Twins. It seems to me the Rangers are the team to deal with. They have 3-4 guys who could headline a package and plenty of secondary players with big upside. |
| 100. By: rjfrik on 07-07-2010 23:37:10 I just read that JZ is demanding two Blue Chip prospects and another young player. God I love this guy. The great thing is, Lee is playing so well that JZ just might get it. Lee will win the CY Young this year if he stays in the AL |
| 101. By: Chris Crawford on 07-07-2010 23:45:59 99 -- I would say they wouldnt give up much more, but doubt it would be a 1 for 1 A lot of guys are struggling in AAA, anybody look at Montero's numbers? It's just been a weird year. I take Smoak and another player over the Twin's offer, but if the Twins are willing to go Slowey, Ramos, and Hicks? Tough to say no to. This is gonna get fun. |
| 102. By: Blowgun7 on 07-07-2010 23:51:18 True, but Montero is 20 and has much better numbers than Ramos. Plus, he's got a track record that is superior offensively to Ramos. Not to mention I think most scouts believe he's a middle of the order bat, while that's not the case with Ramos. Im just alarmed by Ramos' season. Those numbers are just scary. As for a Lee trade. If we walk away with Smoak, Perez, Hicks, Montero, or any prospect on that level, I'll be thrilled. I didn't expect he could fetch an elite guy like that. |
| 103. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-07-2010 23:54:53 I can't imagine Texas would have to give up anything else, if they offered Smoak. I can't, either. That's a "grit-your-teeth-bite-the-bullet" trade writ large for the Rangers, as is. I'd be wondering what else is involved (on both sides) if it's the Rangers, but I've been of the opinion (only mine, feel free to disagree) for awhile that they can't afford not to be the losers in this brouhaha. They desperately need a long playoff run and a fighting chance to go toe-to-toe with whatever Beast In The East (maybe two of them) they'll have to. They need the cash and fan-base invigoration of the playoffs more than anyone. Without Lee, they can probably forget it. And I don't think they have the luxury of looking towards tomorrow. This is their best and maybe only shot. And I think Z knows this. Go get 'em, Jack!! And I don't feel one ounce of pity in putting any screws to the Texas Rangers. Not after A-Rod. |
| 104. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-07-2010 23:56:26 Whoops, I meant "can't afford to be"...forgot to amend that sentence. |
| 105. By: Adam T on 07-08-2010 00:00:09 Texas getting hot and heavy for Lee is a HUGE development. They can make the best offer, and it really puts the onus on other teams to up the ante. Great news, although it probably prolongs the timetable. I think we'll see Lee make his Friday start. Am I dreaming if I think we should offer Lee/Branyan/$$$ for Smoak/Holland/Saltalamacchia? |
| 106. By: slick on 07-08-2010 00:32:51 Dont think smoak gets delt just doesnt make sense for the Rangers to trade a future all star to somebody in your own division but if Holland is healthy I would not mind him centering the deal Holland/Beltre/Ogando seems reasonable. |
| 107. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-08-2010 00:34:01 Am I dreaming if I think we should offer Lee/Branyan/$$$ for Smoak/Holland/Saltalamacchia? If we wind up with Smoak, I do cartwheels. No handstand. If Holland or Profar are also in the deal, I run naked in the streets mumbling something oddly resembling "Jack is a genius and a 5th-level Jedi Knight". Try to sleep with that in your head! Holland is as good of a left-handed SP-prospect as they've had in years. He could well wind up having a similar future as Pineda. I agree, Chris. Things sure look like they're about to get fun. It's a steak,Jack. Go git it!! |
| 108. By: safecochatter on 07-08-2010 06:34:33 not getting holland or smoak in a rental situation. this mornings report out of texas is more like...davis/saltalamacchia/and an arm. with discussions about Alexi Ogando as the arm. while the m's prefer scheppers as the arm.. http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/07/07/2320335/rangers-mariners-in-discussions.html |
| 109. By: kentroyals5 on 07-08-2010 09:31:23 RE: 108 How much a true upgrade would Davis/Saltalamacchia really be for the M's in the future? Seems like a mucher lower-upside than other names being thrown out there. |
| 110. By: mymrbig on 07-08-2010 10:03:08 re: 109 Honestly, it would depend on which scout you are talking too. I'm sure there are scouts out there who still see Davis and Saltamalamachia as guys with lots of untapped potential. But clearly the risk is increasing that both are flameouts. Who knows what the M's think of either guy. Davis is only 24 (9 months older than Smoak) and reminds me of Mark Reynolds (statistically, I'm not a guy who can weigh in from a scouting standpoint). In 2007, Reynolds was a 23-year-old rookie with a 8.9 BB% and 35.2 K% in his first MLB exposure. Davis just turned 24, so he's ahead where Reynolds was on the age curve (reached AA at 21 instead of 23). Over 789 career MLB PA, he has a 6.2 BB% and 34.7 K%, pretty close to Reynolds at the same age. Davis neds to make a few adjustments like Reynolds did, but if he can do those he can be an above-average hitter, despite some holes in his swing and lots of K's. Davis basically has 1 full season at AAA (601 PA, 533 AB). His career AAA line is .341/.404/.572 with 61 BB and 131 K. |
| 111. By: safecochatter on 07-08-2010 10:59:30 davis would be "ok". he's worth another shot at the big show. but ogando is junk. 26 almost 27 and a middle reliever. and a mediocre one at that.if that is the offer,i'd rather have the 2 dp. |
| 112. By: TomasMoya05 on 07-08-2010 11:01:33 I am really hoping that we can make a trade with the Reds for Yonder Alonso, Juan Francisco, and maybe one or two lower minor leaguers. We would be getting two positions of a major need. A first baseman of the future with great power, and a third baseman with huge power. I really want Alonso, he can be a star. If not with the reds then the Rangers because they have great minor leaguers. Only I would trade with Texas if we get Smoak, Davis has been terrible when in the majors, and although he has tons of power, he strikes out way too much. |
| 113. By: baseballman on 07-08-2010 11:05:59 Oh man, if we can somehow get smoak... someone correct me if im wrong, but is davis kinda like a poor mans adam dunn? lots of power, but lots of Ks? |
| 114. By: bobbysee1 on 07-08-2010 11:22:32 Read an interesting article last night written by John Hickey for Fanhouse. Forgive me if I'm not getting the just of the article. He was saying that when trading Lee you're trading him plus 2 top 35 first round draft picks. If you think its a rental you're forgetting the draft picks if/when he jumps ship. I guess I see at least 3 players coming back with two of them - if not all three - being "blue chip" prospects for a deal to take place. I guess will see........ |
| 115. By: ccroghan on 07-08-2010 11:31:23 If we do in fact get Smoak involved, would it be straight-up for Cliff Lee? Or could we get other Rangers fodder as well? |
| 116. By: randallball on 07-08-2010 11:37:09 The Rangers Chad Tracy (out of Pepperdine, not the old DBack) is an interesting prospect to me. His dead pull RH power might not play well in Safeco, but he does seem to have a good, patient approach. Have you seen/heard much on Tracy, Chris and/or Jason? Tracy and Martin Perez and...another prospect worth it in your eyes? I just think we are all going to get hyped on the possibility of Smoak and then be greatly disappointed when it doesn't happen. |
| 117. By: randallball on 07-08-2010 11:41:55 I guess I should've asked, "if Tracy any better than Poythress/Raben/Chris Davis"? |
| 118. By: Edman on 07-08-2010 12:46:58 It's amazing watching all the clamour. The rumors and speculation. It almost becomes an example of virtual perpetual motion. The thing starts rolling and just keeps going. I do think Texas has the most to gain. The team is in financial chaos right now. And, let's be honest, their window of opportunity is now. They can't assume that they're suddenly ahead of the pack. There is a common myth amongst baseball fans, and that is there is always tomorrow. As we see all the time, windows of opportunity change yearly. Is Smoak more valuable to Texas' future, or is Cliff Lee more valuable to their now? Clearly, Lee is more valuable now. Vlad is a potential free agent next year. Hamilton isn't exactly an ironman in regard to staying healthy. Texas needs to learn from Seattle's 2001 failures. That was Seattle's moment of opportunity, and they were afraid to move any top prospects, to shore themselves up for the playoffs. Smoak could be a nice player, for many second place clubs. When opportunity knocks, only a fool fails to answer the door. |
| 119. By: bcsimons on 07-08-2010 13:15:33 For anyone... What are you thinking the probability of Texas giving us smoak is? |
| 120. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-08-2010 13:21:27 Yep, Edman. I'd say we're in concurrence, I said roughly the same things in #103. |
| 121. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-08-2010 13:26:21 BCSimons, I don't know if probability is easy to equate or quantify here. If Jason or Chris want to give a percentage, I'll completely defer to them on it. They're a lot better informed. I do know Jack should realize he has the closest thing to a trump card in this hand. Just don't overplay it before they're in deep, is all. |
| 122. By: Edman on 07-08-2010 13:27:47 Personally, I'd like to see the M's pay most of Lee's remaining salary, to get Smoak and another good prospect. Smoak for Lee, is a straight up, with Texas paying the remainder of his salary. Including cash brings back another prospect. I agree with the statement that many GMs have made, including Jack. Your farm system is not just to replentish the major league club, but to use at pieces of a trade, to improve the team. Bottom line is to never fall in love with your own prospects. Even Smoak could fail. |
| 123. By: Chris Crawford on 07-08-2010 13:28:39 114 or whatever number it was -- Davis and Ogando would not be as good an offer as Hicks and Ramos. I haven't seen Chad Tracy since Pepperdine -- but I wouldn't say Tracy is a large upgrade -- if any -- over those guys. And I would say the chance they would include Smoak in a deal is around 45 percent -- which is 44 percent higher then it was two days ago. |
| 124. By: littlelinny6 on 07-08-2010 13:38:46 Hey, if we can't have Smoak in a Lee deal at least we have Halman. I know he is every talent evaluators human pinada but the guy is raking in AAA (wOBA+ of 124), more than doubled his BB% from last year while keeping the Ks the same roughly and thus his best OBP ever. The guy is also a very good defensive outfielder and at the very least has to be in the discussion as a platoon bat at the next level. Obviously striking out nearly 40% of the time is a huge red flag but in this year of abject disaster he is giving some reason for hope. |
| 125. By: mymrbig on 07-08-2010 13:48:36 45% chance the Rangers would include Smoak? That is a huge development. Rather than relying on Davis for the rest of this year, I wonder if the M's would be including Branyan. Branyan + Lee + Cash for Smoak + others makes some sense for both clubs. |
| 126. By: southpaw360 on 07-08-2010 13:54:11 I would love to get Derek Holland in any trade with Texas. I think he is going to be good. |
| 127. By: Blowgun7 on 07-08-2010 13:56:33 You gotta have some excitement about Halman right now. We're in a situation where I think we can at least put together a helluva young LF platoon down the road with Saunders and Halman. |
| 128. By: Chris Crawford on 07-08-2010 14:55:03 I'm not getting overly excited about Halman til I see the walks start to go up -- but yes, this is infinitely better than last year. Derek Holland would be nice -- but trading for injured prospects is always a pretty big risk. |
| 129. By: masonb on 07-08-2010 15:56:28 Any chance this could be something along the lines of Lee + cash and a prospect for Harden (paying all his contract), Saltalamaccia, Smoak, and Holland or Beaven or is that too much? |
| 130. By: Chris Crawford on 07-08-2010 16:05:08 I think that's probably too much, but I fully expect this to be a large trade, that is Jack's M.O. and always will be. Soon as we find out more you guys will be the first to know. |
| 131. By: randallball on 07-08-2010 16:13:13 I'm hoping Lee + Aardsma + Cash for Smoak, Salty and Holland or, more preferably, Martin Perez. Hey, it is a nice day out, I can daydream! |
| 132. By: Blowgun7 on 07-08-2010 16:46:24 There is no way in hell we are getting Smoak and Holland/Perez. It just isn't possible unless Felix has been included in the deal. As I said before, Lee for Smoak straight up and we should be building statues of Jack. |
| 133. By: JohnMcD on 07-08-2010 16:53:07 I want Smoak so bad. Get it done Jack! |
| 134. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 07-08-2010 20:19:47 Cliff Lee + Russell Branyan and $4MM cash for Justin Smoak, Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltallmacchia! Thats what I would LOVE! But I highly doubt it would happen... |
| 135. By: Adam T on 07-08-2010 20:27:49 Smoak AND Davis? That would be a bad package. We've got more than enough holes than to trade for two 1Bs. |
| 136. By: Chris Crawford on 07-08-2010 20:28:23 I don't think I'd trade for three first-basemen (still doubt Saltalamacchia can catch) Whatever they get on top of Smoak is icing -- IF it happens. |
| 137. By: Juan Valdez on 07-08-2010 20:32:03 I was really hoping it would get done tonight. It's all part of the process I suppose. |
| 138. By: Adam T on 07-08-2010 20:33:34 Although his injury raises a red flag, I'd love to get Holland alongside Smoak. |
| 139. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-08-2010 20:52:28 Would it be frowned upon if we were to pad Lee up in bubble wrap for tomorrow's start? |
| 140. By: Chris Crawford on 07-08-2010 21:08:20 139 Ha! Not at all. |
| 141. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-08-2010 23:03:40 Why are the Braves not being mentioned as a possible destination? They have one of the better farm systems, and don't have an "ace" on the top of their rotation. How about a package centered around Vizcaino or Teheran and Freddie Freeman? |
| 142. By: safecochatter on 07-08-2010 23:32:24 think Jack should do an espn 1 hour special on all the Lee trade offers. let everyone text vote their favorite. and then announce where Lee is going... |
| 143. By: roscoe97214 on 07-08-2010 23:43:18 obviously it was years ago but Texas traded Adrian Gonzales to San Diego. I like Smoak and AA Beavan and a third player. |
| 144. By: VikingArthur on 07-08-2010 23:54:49 I'd take Smoak straight across and pay Lee's salary. M's won't do it... Smoak is capable of hitting 30+ homeruns which means the Mariners have no interest! Ha, Ha. Much better deal than a Ramos package from the Twins. |
| 145. By: lightbat on 07-09-2010 01:48:44 I have been rosterbating for the last couple of days. It is starting to hurt. So here is what I would like to do... lee and da plus cash for smoak and holland. It sets our pitching staff up to be very good for quite some time plus we finally get the big bat at first that we need. The rangers get what they need to make that push for the ws this year. I'm not as high on ramos as lots of people seem to be. I think moore is going to be a decent player. Ramos only projects to be just a little better than moore. Rocketdawg keep posting. 013!! |
| 146. By: Lamda on 07-09-2010 02:34:03 too bad philly is out of it - had the tiniest of hopes that they might pony up Brown out of desperation. Its understandable though, i'm sure they wanted him but didn't want to look like idiots by giving up 2 or even 3 times what they traded him for just 6 months ago. |
| 147. By: jgstecker on 07-09-2010 06:24:41 Joel Sherman is saying Lee could be headed to NYY for Montero, Adams, and 2 more prospects today. I absolutely love Montero hitting cleanup between Ackley and Saunders/Raben. Mf this trade goes down, it probably means Texas was unwilling to trade Smoak. |
| 148. By: John_S on 07-09-2010 06:39:13 ESPN says the Yanks may be in it with the deal headlined by Montero. Sign me up for that. Montero regardless if he is plays C,1B or DH is going to hit in the majors. His bat is legit even though he's struggling in AAA as a 20 year old. Anything in addition to Montero would be icing. http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5366254 |
| 149. By: FWBrodie on 07-09-2010 06:41:26 Espn (Buster Olney) has the Lee for Montero rumor too. Everyone better get their offers in now, but Montero would be an incredible get if no one beats it. |
| 150. By: bodhizefa on 07-09-2010 06:53:03 If we somehow get Montero (essentially my dream acquisition since the whole notion of trading Lee came into play), I will probably have to be restrained while walking down the sidewalk today for fear of my arms flapping wildly with glee. |
| 151. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 07:44:52 are yankees flavor of the day,or is this real? buster tweeted at 7;30am that deal with yanks "almost done".. could lee pitch for yanks tonight at safeco? |
| 152. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 07:48:03 Lee will not pitch tonight if this is done. It should be done before the game tonight. |
| 153. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 08:01:03 right...team doctors have to have their say. Yanks are also looking for a veteran to spell arod at 3rd. we throw in figgy and they throw in Vazquez and Jack has three weeks to trade Vazquez.. |
| 154. By: xarmyguy78 on 07-09-2010 08:16:26 Am I the only one that does NOT want this deal done, I hate the way the Yankees get whatever they want, whenever they want it. Maybe Texas sees this and bumps up their offer (please, please, please) I just don't want Lee going to the Yankees. |
| 155. By: John_S on 07-09-2010 08:17:50 I wish I was in Seattle to see a Pineda / Montero battery for the Rainiers! |
| 156. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 08:18:28 I could be wrong? but I believe Vazquez has a NTC that basically says 'go put a fork in your eye' to teams west of Texas. |
| 157. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 08:20:37 Those Levinson Bros use some tough language! |
| 158. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 08:21:24 #154... Pretty sure we ALL hate the Yankees and their ways, but when they say "Montero plus..." the talking to other teams is over. |
| 159. By: John_S on 07-09-2010 08:24:25 Olney tweeted - "Heard this: The Yankees told the Mariners overnight that their current offer is their last and best offer for Lee. They expect a yes or no soon, because Lee is scheduled to pitch against them tonight. "There has to be an answer before the game," says 1 source." What did we do before twitter? Lol. |
| 160. By: xarmyguy78 on 07-09-2010 08:24:44 #159 If Texas counters with Smoak Plus, the M's would have to listen wouldn't they? I really wanted something to work out between the M's and Rangers just cause I wanted to help them out of some of the nice pieces that are going to hurt the M's for years to come |
| 161. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 08:25:17 If we could score Vazquez back and he forgives the "fork in your eye", he ranks as a Type A per Elias as of 7/7. Would be nice. |
| 162. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 08:26:02 Chris does Montero stay behind the dish? what's the injury to Adams? he's been out since may. Buster also tweeted a little while ago...the yanks laid their final offer on the table last night. M's must say yes or no soon. |
| 163. By: Adam T on 07-09-2010 08:26:22 Awwww, nuts. Don't get me wrong - I love Montero, but my hatred of the Yankees runs so deep, I can't stand to see them as the winners of the Lee sweepstakes. Irrationality is winning out right now. Might as well send the WS trophy back to the Bronx right now. 1. Is Montero a better prospect than Smoak? 2. I'm a bit underwhelmed by the rest of the package, to be honest. But I guess Montero is such a good get, we shouldn't complain. |
| 164. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 08:32:07 I think they absolutely try him behind the dish. Montero is good enough to make the rest of this package just very very delicious icing. Not sure what's up with Adams injury -- will try and find out. |
| 165. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 08:36:57 Adams has a sprained ankle -- shouldn't be anything terribly concerning for the future. Smoak Vs. Montero is interesting -- Montero probably has more raw power and upside -- Smoak a better defender, a switch-hitter and maybe a little bit more 'sure thing'. Will update you guys as soon as I hear more. |
| 166. By: Adam T on 07-09-2010 08:42:13 I'm holding out hope that some team gets a bit desperate here (looking at you, Nolan Ryan...) and tops what is a strong package from NYY. Given Smoaks ability to play a strong 1B, I might give him the nod over Montero - the fact that he's already in the bigs is a plus as well. Of course, perhaps Texas has made him completely off-limits, and this is moot. Adams has hit well the past two years - interesting that he plays 2B. Chris or Jason - do you guys know if he is possibly a candidate to move to 3B, or is he likely a good Plan B in case they have to move Ackley to the OF? And are we talking a low-A pitcher or possibly a Zach McAllister as the 3rd piece? |
| 167. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 08:47:26 Adams footwork has improved dramatically in the past few years -- but probably isn't a long-term answer at second-base from what I've heard. There's also a good chance that there's going to be two other players added -- and that's the hold-up in the trade. This will be done well before the game tonight. |
| 168. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 08:50:23 You know, I'm thrilled Montero is coming aboard. However, I hate the Yankees so much that this move bothers me. I can't believe the Twins and Rangers are gonna let this happen. |
| 169. By: Adam T on 07-09-2010 08:53:50 So Adams could be our future 3B? The latest from Joel Sherman suggests we view him as a good but not elite defender. |
| 170. By: JohnMcD on 07-09-2010 08:53:50 Man I am going to the game tonight and was hoping to watch Lee. |
| 171. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 08:57:03 168, It may not be that -- it may just be that Zduriencik likes Montero more than Smoak or Hicks and Ramos and the like. He certainly wouldn't be alone. I'm going to be doing some of these updates from twitter - so if you want a few quicker updates, follow me at Chris Crawford PI. |
| 172. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 09:01:41 If anyone is NOT on Twitter and you like breaking news, you need to get on there ASAP...I hesitated to get into it, but I love it! First thing I check every morning before hopping in the shower to head out for work. |
| 173. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 09:03:33 172 -- how Twitter hasn't figured out how to make a product boggles my mind, but I'm glad I started, for sure. |
| 174. By: shemberry on 07-09-2010 09:32:29 Jason or Chris, Does the fact that it will be three instead of four players mean that the 3rd player will be a little bit better prospect? In other words are we getting quality over quantity, or did Jack ask for Montero, Adams and players A and B, and get told "not A and B, A or B"? |
| 175. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 09:37:03 Honestly have no idea -- the Yankees have a ton of Good-stuff poor-command pitchers -- my guess is they may have gotten the one they like the most -- I can't see this being a major prospect -- but I didn't think they'd be able to get Miguel Montero for a rental player either. |
| 176. By: shemberry on 07-09-2010 09:38:29 So, it won't be Bettances? |
| 177. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 09:39:10 Or Jesus Montero. |
| 178. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 09:39:51 Would be very surprised if it was Bettances or McAllister. |
| 179. By: shemberry on 07-09-2010 09:41:29 Me too, but one can hope. |
| 180. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 09:41:51 Yes, or Jesus Montero. Too similiar a name/same 'position' |
| 181. By: sg9207 on 07-09-2010 09:44:11 At least it appears David Adams good stats this year aren't the result of playing in some crazy hitters park. His adjusted per league average stats (100 being league average) are solid. BA-107 OPB-110 SLG-114 OPS-112 http://mlbscoutbuzz.com/node/61 |
| 182. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 09:52:36 He's hit pretty much eveywhere he's been -- there just isn't a lot of upside/probably doesn't have the power you'd ideally like from a third-basemen. The M's aren't exactly over-flowing in great infield prospects right now -- so hes a good get, just don't get overly excited I would say. |
| 183. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 10:05:49 I wonder if Montero could be flipped in the offseason for a left-handed power hitter. Joey Votto comes to mind. I don't know what his contract situation is, but he would appear to be entering his arbitration years. |
| 184. By: JohnMcD on 07-09-2010 10:08:18 I doubt votto is available |
| 185. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 10:16:27 Flipping Montero = possible. Making a trade for Joey Votto = impossible. |
| 186. By: Slack on 07-09-2010 10:22:37 Does Adams project to be an everyday player? |
| 187. By: FelixElRey on 07-09-2010 10:22:49 Why would we want to flip Montero?? This guy is a future stud DH or possible 1B. He is exactly what we need. |
| 188. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 10:27:50 John Murphy? J.R. Murphy, the Yanks 2nd rounder from last season? |
| 189. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 10:31:07 with physicals needed for all...when would be the quickest lee makes his yankee debut...as game? |
| 190. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 10:32:13 Pineda scheduled to start in Tacoma tonight - please don't tell me he takes Lee's spot in the rotation tonight... |
| 191. By: Enpassant on 07-09-2010 10:37:51 Might be a good thing that I haven't bought my Rainiers tickets yet... I really want to see Pineda pitch before he gets called up |
| 192. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 10:42:28 I would expect Pauley to get the start -- hasn't thrown much/calling up Pineda would be pretty hasty. |
| 193. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 10:44:24 rosenthal is saying McAlister is the third piece! |
| 194. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 10:46:19 Votto may be impossible, and flipping Montero may not be the right answer, but one way or another we need to get a left-handed power hitter. |
| 195. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 10:59:28 Votto is not coming to the M's short of Felix being involved. It just won't happen, but his name keeps coming up for some reason. |
| 196. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-09-2010 11:01:39 Damn.... What a haul! Jack is the man!! I cant wait for the PI Write-up on our new prospects. Does Montero leap-frog Ackley as #1 in our system? |
| 197. By: Adam T on 07-09-2010 11:03:41 McAllister!!! Nice. Not bad for a third piece!! |
| 198. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 11:07:03 195 -- He's the new Prince Fielder. 196 -- You know it'll be great -- and the answer to that question is.....I don't know, pretty close. |
| 199. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 11:10:02 The only reason I mentioned Votto's name is because he's entering his arbitration years and he's in a smaller market in Cincinatti. I suspect it would be more of a possibility if he only had two years of club control left rather than three. This is just speculation though. It's fun to think about what Jack's next move is. |
| 200. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 11:10:12 Montero, Adams, McAllister....I'm impressed. Especially since there doesn't seem to be anyone else going to the Yankees in the deal. I was preferring Smoak over Montero just in terms of pure player profile...but it's a good day. Montero was just as untouchable a few days as Smoak apparently still is. My only real concern is that I now have a lot less incentive to actually watch the playoffs. Who's going to beat those three starters the Yankees will trot out in Sabathia-Lee-Hughes? |
| 201. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-09-2010 11:11:05 I know it will be great, I can hardly wait! I'm really interested in your opinions on whether or not he sticks at C. |
| 202. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 11:11:57 Zach McAllister. Wow! |
| 203. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 07-09-2010 11:13:55 Calling up Pineda is definitely the right move. He should only throw about sixty more innings this year and there really is no point in him throwing them for Tacoma. In his third AAA start and second against Salt Lake the hitters should have adjusted to him and done better. Instead he was the one who made the adjustments and threw six perfect innings before tiring a little in the seventh. This is just an opinion but I think AA was enough of a test for him. There are more pure prospects in AA. In AAA there are too many guys who made it to the majors but got sent down because of obvious glaring holes, the proverbial AAAA players. Pineda for the start! |
| 204. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 07-09-2010 11:15:36 Believe me it will be Sabathia, Lee, Burnett and Pettite. Hughes will surely be back in the bullpen for the playoffs. |
| 205. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 11:22:41 Wayyyyyyy too early to call up Pineda. Why rush the kid up right now? And, to throw him out against the Yankees? I'd think you'd want to get a softer cushion for his first ML start. In the AL, you can always find a place for a good hitter. The M's need a few good hitters, more than they need a catcher. |
| 206. By: JohnMcD on 07-09-2010 11:29:44 Will montero go straight to AAA or come to the bigs? |
| 207. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 11:32:04 JohnD (#206)- For my own .02, my bet is AAA-Tacoma with a chance for a September look-see. He's been heating up with the stick the last month or so, but he's 20 and still probably has some developing to do in AAA. |
| 208. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 11:33:42 Agree with Ed that there is no way we should call up Pineda. With his arm injury last year, we need to move slowly with him. Keep the innings for 2010 down as much as possible. |
| 209. By: rjfrik on 07-09-2010 11:34:50 What a great day to be an M's fan. We flipped Aumont, Gilles and Ramirez for Montero, Adams and McAllister. WOW!! |
| 210. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 11:35:41 Almost positive he would go to AAA -- absolutely no rush. |
| 211. By: southpaw360 on 07-09-2010 11:41:35 Since we won't be picking up any money in this deal does it allow us to sign our draft picks a little quicker? It frees up 4 million dollars or so. I'm hoping this allows us to sign Littlewood, Stanek, Paxton, Linehan and Shipers to what will probably be above slot deals for all of them. That would be a huge boost to this farm system along with the players coming back from the Yankees. What a well played hand by Jack Z. I am impressed. |
| 212. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 11:42:31 What would be interesting to see is if they try to convert him in AAA to first base right away, with Moore's presence there at catcher. I for one am still convinced Adam Moore will be a nice player. Not an All-Star type with some fellow named Mauer in the American League, but above the ML-average at that position. |
| 213. By: Bionic_ben23 on 07-09-2010 11:43:03 Pineda pulled from start ?! Nothing like a strong playoff run for the Rainiers' in they're last season at old Cheney! Already 11 Games over .500 with potential additions like this added to the roster? I'm taking Saturday off and going to a ballgame. |
| 214. By: rjfrik on 07-09-2010 11:45:13 196 - If I had to answer I would say yes. Montero now becomes our new #1 barely. He is a legit A prospect. The beauty of this deal is not only Montero but McAllister, he is a B prospect and Adams is a C+ prospect. If I had to guess I think Montero becomes the new #1, McAllister becomes the new #8 and Adams the new #16 in the top 30 prospects for the M's. That is a GREAT haul for JZ. |
| 215. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 11:45:20 Jason or Chris, none of these guys are going to be counted on for immediate contributions. Adams could be angling for a promotion to AAA if he resumes where he's left off before the ankle thing. Montero and McAllister are already going to be there in Tacoma. I'm not all hot for street creds, but IYO, does this vault us from middle-of-the-pack to Top-10 Farm System material? |
| 216. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 07-09-2010 11:45:23 10 six inning starts for the Mariners will help Pineda more than any more time in the minors. I'm happy to say that he is too good to keep pitching in AAA, there is no point to it whatsoever. |
| 217. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 11:50:26 215 -- It's close -- a lot of it will depend on the signing of draft picks. 216 -- I love Pineda, I really do. But I have real concerns about how that breaking-ball is going to play against major-league hitters, particularly a lineup like the Yankees. I wouldn't call this a "mistake" but it's just as likely to get ugly as it is to go well -- let's hope for the second one. |
| 218. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 11:52:01 Let's see, as of right now: Felix, Vargas and Fister already in the big leagues, with Lowe, RRS and French all 27 or younger...and Saunders and Gutierrez both position-players under that category, too. Add, at varying times: Montero, Adams, Triunfel, Ackley, maybe Halman, Raben, Poythress. And on the pitching side? RH Pineda, RH McAllister, LH Robles. That's not even including LHP James Paxton if/when he signs, whom nobody expects will take years of development. Holy crap. The Mariners could become a very young, very talented team in relative short order. |
| 219. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 11:59:39 "Making a trade for Joey Votto = impossible" Now that he's an All-Star you mean? |
| 220. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 12:00:35 BTW, put me down for "nay" on Pineda starting for the Mariners tonight. There's nothing to really be gained by it if he impresses, and maybe a lot to lose if the Yankees bomb him. One of the long-time scouting credos goes something like "Bring a kid up before he's ready and you could ruin him as a big-leaguer permanently." He's got only a handful of starts at the Triple-A level. Someday very soon, Michael Pineda will be ready to face a team like these Yankees. But I'm going to choose a better game than this to get his feet wet in the major leagues, if I'm the one making the call. You've got a David Pauley who won't excite anybody, but hasn't pitched much either. And he's already in the dugout. |
| 221. By: jgstecker on 07-09-2010 12:07:21 The Ms need to make sure that 2011 doesn't count as a full year of service time for the new Big 3. Look for Pineda, Ackley, and Montero to all get September call ups and then make the bigs for good in June/July 2011. That would start their 6 year clocks in 2012. They all have stuff to work on in AAA in the meantime. I expect the Ms will give Montero the rest of the year to see his defensive abilities first hand and then use the fall league/spring training/April-May to switch him to 1B. |
| 222. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 12:11:31 219 - HA! Something like that -- Also Tacoma is saying Pineda is still starting. |
| 223. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 12:19:43 I expect the M's to give Roger Hansen a crack at Montero, before they conclude that he can't catch. There's no real value to give up on him now as a catcher. He's only 20. |
| 224. By: snowmanmid on 07-09-2010 12:24:36 Are these prospects for real, or are they a product of the NY media machine? |
| 225. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 12:28:53 "There's no real value to give up on him now as a catcher. He's only 20." Actually there is. If you really believe he can't catch long-term, then you are just slowing his progress with the bat, and delaying his eta to the majors at his eventual position. I don't really know if he can't catch, but it def sounds suspect. IF the M's moved him to 1B now, it prob speeds up his progress with the bat, and possibly the Jesus Montero era in Seattle. |
| 226. By: Lailoken on 07-09-2010 12:31:21 Now that Lee is all but gone who's the next to be traded? Aardsma? Lopez? Both have value but their 2011 salaries will make navigating the offseason waters harder for GMZ. Personally, I want Branyan to stick around so he's easier to re-sign. It'd be nice if Bedard & Cordero show well before the deadline so they can net some return too. The recent Saunders profile by Dave has me wondering if we'd be better off with him in AAA reworking his swing. Giving Carlos Delgado a cameo at DH wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He's been swinging a bat for six weeks. Bradley in left may be an injury waiting to happen but this year is done. No reason not to experiment. If one of them gets injured Nelson or Carp can fill in. Still can't wait for some July 2 signings & the article on top ten latin players in the system. |
| 227. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 12:31:26 224 -- Montero is very real. The other two guys aren't hyped that much, nor should they be, but they are far from useless. |
| 228. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 12:36:14 Southpaw360 (#211)- Great question. I wish I'd thought of that! Myself, I dunno. I was always of the mind that the major-league payroll and the scouting/development payrolls were separate. But any claim of real knowledge on that from me would be a fib. |
| 229. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 12:47:38 On 710 right now is the Felix/Lee M's commercial.....kinda weird |
| 230. By: jd7979 on 07-09-2010 12:48:37 The Mariners are backing off, according to Sherman (via Twitter). |
| 231. By: jd7979 on 07-09-2010 12:49:37 http://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/18142924805 |
| 232. By: Lailoken on 07-09-2010 12:54:00 Wow, with the Mariners backing off. Is there really a better deal out there? |
| 233. By: rjfrik on 07-09-2010 12:55:00 Umm. I'm hearing the M's are backing off of this because of Adams ankle and because another team has come on strong, very strong. Any truth to this Jason, Chris? I just hope we don't over bluff, Montero would of been great here. Ugh |
| 234. By: JohnMcD on 07-09-2010 12:55:01 Man this is crazy |
| 235. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 12:55:15 Looks like Lee will be pitching against the Yanks tonight. |
| 236. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 12:57:40 This promises to be an interesting day. I should really sign up for Twitter. |
| 237. By: mymrbig on 07-09-2010 12:59:18 I assume I'm not the only one who believes this deal would fall apart over concerns about Adams' ankle? He's not exactly the headliner. Either another team has jumped in hard (hopefully Texas), or the Yanks and M's were just playing everyone else with the leaks about a deal to make another team blink (hopefully Texas). |
| 238. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 13:02:55 Smoak better be a Mariner. This sucks. |
| 239. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 13:09:12 To be honest, the Rangers need Lee, the Yankees don't. Texas has to now either pay more than the going rate, or face a Yankee team they can't beat. Pretty simple....you overpay. |
| 240. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 13:11:55 Would have loved the Yankees package, more than I would have guessed we could have gotten a week ago, so if they are passing on that for something better.... HO LEE Shit! |
| 241. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 13:12:00 Sounds like it's Texas that has jumped in: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cliff_lee/ |
| 242. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 13:14:28 Hard to believe talks completely fell apart over Adams' ankle injury. From what I've read, he isn't enough of a prospect for either team to let that happen. |
| 243. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 07-09-2010 13:15:55 Exactly Edman. And it would not surprise me if the Twins had somehow jumped back in it too, or Tampa Bay. All three of these teams have to get Lee to have a chance to beat the Yankees, in my opinion. So it's just a matter of which one blinks first and overpays. Awesomeness! |
| 244. By: Stormton on 07-09-2010 13:18:58 A few people have said it's Texas, including Sherman and a former Ranger's scout. Smoak Smoak Smoak FOR THE LOVE OF GOD SMOAK |
| 245. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-09-2010 13:22:38 Jason at 6:45 AM - "It appears the M's are pretty serious about getting this done soon -- let's see if this is a ploy to get more out of the Twins and Rangers." Looking likely... |
| 246. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 13:36:06 twitter is saying ..forget smoke on the water...smoak is on the table! |
| 247. By: masonb on 07-09-2010 13:36:24 Smoak has to be in this deal. Jack would be crazy to walk away from Montero if Smoak wasn't in a Texas package. I kept having a feeling this would happen, that Jack would make it look to the Rangers that he was gonna take the Yanks package and then get an even better deal out of Texas. There's some serious poker going on right now. |
| 248. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 13:43:15 Agreed, masonb. NO WAY is Montero backed off from unless there's an aggressive new deal in serious talks and that's no-brainer-level of better. The only thing who fits that bill is Smoak and a host of others from Texas. I'm not buying the hot-and-heavy Reds rumors, just for lack of palatable names. |
| 249. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 13:44:33 I would have to believe that Smoak is the key to any Texas deal. It's the only possible chip that could turn Seattle's head from Montero. Justin makes the most sense, because he's a switch-hitter. Montero's numbers would suffer a bit at Safeco Field. |
| 250. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 13:46:08 I don't know what the Reds could be offering that would compare to Montero. |
| 251. By: brockfs1 on 07-09-2010 13:47:46 Jason or Chris, Is it Possible that the rays might be williing to Part with Jennings and maybe Hellickson? |
| 252. By: Stormton on 07-09-2010 13:48:16 Evan Grant says Smoak isn't in the lineup tonight... |
| 253. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 13:51:00 Sorry guys -- feel like I let you down, the majority of these updates have been from me and I I left at a really bad time. Can confirm no Smoak in the lineup and talks are picking up. |
| 254. By: Gustafson on 07-09-2010 13:58:04 Done Deal!!! Smoak and 3 others for Lee and Lowe... Per Sherman |
| 255. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 13:59:38 Chris, no one expected this level of 11th-hour, team-jumping- in shenanigans...it's cool. Smoak strikes me as a given to be in any deal with Texas now, but how many others and who? And cash from us almost as much a given. But who else do we give up? I'm not getting a dang thing done today. |
| 256. By: Gustafson on 07-09-2010 13:59:57 http://twitter.com/Joelsherman1 Here's the guy who is reporting done deal... |
| 257. By: brockfs1 on 07-09-2010 14:00:06 Joel Sherman reporting deal with rangers done Smoak and 3 others for lee and mark lowe |
| 258. By: FelixElRey on 07-09-2010 14:02:21 So, here's the question...is Smoak straight up a better package than Montero, Adams, and McAllister?? I'm guessing not, so what else should we hope for here? |
| 259. By: FelixElRey on 07-09-2010 14:04:01 What's the latest on Lowe's injury recovery? |
| 260. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 14:04:36 Mark Lowe? That seems odd seeing how he's currently on the DL and is suppose to be down for the year. |
| 261. By: Juan Valdez on 07-09-2010 14:06:31 Don't they have to get a waiver or something from the commissioner to trade an injured player? |
| 262. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 07-09-2010 14:07:58 I'm predicting its Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe and $4MM for Smoak, Saltalamacchia, Oganda and Holland.... IM HOPING DAVIS TOO BUT I DOUBT IT!!! THIS IS EXCITING!!!! |
| 263. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 14:08:38 Please please please let Holland be included. |
| 264. By: mymrbig on 07-09-2010 14:08:53 re: 258, everyone has Smoak and Montero are extremely close. Montero is younger and has more raw power. If you believe he's a catcher, you definitely like him more. If you think they are both 1st baseman, they are still extremely close. Personally, I like Smoak because he's a switch hitter and is willing to walk. "3 others" is so vague! |
| 265. By: Gustafson on 07-09-2010 14:09:06 Is Salty over his yips? I haven't heard |
| 266. By: brockfs1 on 07-09-2010 14:11:21 I got My Vuvuzela Ready if this deal goes down!!! |
| 267. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 14:11:54 I doubt it, too, Kyle...Davis has got to be their fall-back plan at 1B with Smoak gone! Your cash sounds right, but I'm predicting LHP Perez, SS Profar, and RHP Boscan. |
| 268. By: FelixElRey on 07-09-2010 14:12:19 Holland likely the biggest hope for the "3 others"? I'm lukewarm on Salty and Chris Davis, but if they are throw ins, I'll take it. |
| 269. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 14:13:31 We'll obviously have a super-cool write up on the prospects soon. Salty is over the yips -- but isn't over being a non-catcher still. Don't think there's any chance he stays there long-term. |
| 270. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 14:15:17 131. By: randallball on 07-08-2010 18:13:13 "I'm hoping Lee + Aardsma + Cash for Smoak, Salty and Holland or, more preferably, Martin Perez. Hey, it is a nice day out, I can daydream!" Replce Aardsma with Lowe, and I may be on to something! |
| 271. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 07-09-2010 14:16:18 Chris, What's your prediciton on the three ofhter prospects? |
| 272. By: JohnMcD on 07-09-2010 14:16:49 SMOAK!!! Was hoping to see tonight, but I will take Smoak! |
| 273. By: FelixElRey on 07-09-2010 14:17:12 Chris, you tweeted your prediction...Font and Ogando...should we be happy with that? |
| 274. By: randallball on 07-09-2010 14:17:22 Chris just put a "complete guess" of Font and Ogando on Twitter. |
| 275. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 14:20:05 Yes -- COMPLETE guess, I know nothing about who the other three are yet -- just named that have been attached. It would be a great return -- Ogando isn't special but he could be a 7th-8th inning arm and Font is better than McAllister. Spec-u-lation. Let's see what happens. |
| 276. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 07-09-2010 14:21:44 Mariners will acquire two pitchers and a position player, plus Smoak, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). |
| 277. By: Gustafson on 07-09-2010 14:21:45 According to @LoneStarDugout it looks like Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson aside from Beavan among the prospects going for Lee |
| 278. By: FelixElRey on 07-09-2010 14:23:24 Wow, press conference in 35 minutes per Morosi! This has been such a whirlwind! |
| 279. By: safecochatter on 07-09-2010 14:23:37 i think ranger brass might be lookin for new jobs next year with new ownership coming in from the bankruptcy sale. i guess they figured...why not? let's go out with a bang! |
| 280. By: nighthawk180 on 07-09-2010 14:25:06 Going to the game tonight anyone know if Lee will pitch or is he gone for texas? thx |
| 281. By: Jackson on 07-09-2010 14:26:11 Cliff Lee is not pitching for the Mariners tonight. |
| 282. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-09-2010 14:30:57 I only know Lueke's got some serious SO numbers this year and Beavan is a horse of a guy at 6'7", 250- and in AAA. |
| 283. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 14:32:27 I like Beavan. Big 21 year old kid pitching well in AA. Former 1st round pick. Others look like more fillers. |
| 284. By: Gustafson on 07-09-2010 14:35:35 Beavan has so-so strikeout numbers but doesn't walk anyone.. Like 12 in 110 innings this year. Probably a command guy but who knows. Lueke is like 14 k per 9. Crazy. Might be the next setup man? |
| 285. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 14:36:49 Lueke only pitched in 4 games in 2009. Must of been hurt. Anyone know the type of injury? |
| 286. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 14:41:14 Eh, I can't complain because I said I would deal Lee straight up for Smoak, but the rest of the guys aren't interesting. Beavan doesnt throw hard enough to be that exciting. Lueke is a reliever and I don't know anything about the other kid. At least we got Smoak but this deal isn't any better than the Yankees deal IMO |
| 287. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 14:44:11 It is better, in that Seattle gets a switch-hitter. Safeco is death to righthanded power hitters. Plus, Moore is probably going to end up at catcher, anyway, so Montero would have to eventually move to first. As far a relievers go, right now, I'd take any reliever who could get an out. |
| 288. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 14:45:10 Blow, Your discounting Beavan. I think at his age is a better prospect as compared to the 2 other Yankees who were in play. |
| 289. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 14:47:31 Montero is prob a 1B long term, and Smoak is/will always be considerably better defensively, plus he'll walk quite about more, Montero def has the edge in raw power, but is still a ways away from being an everyday player. Overall I think Smoak def has the edge. |
| 290. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 14:51:15 288, Just not a fan of Beavan. He's a slightly more impressive Doug Fister. He's a #4 starter type. Would have rather gotten some high upside guys as secondary players. As for Smoak vs Montero. I think Montero has better potential, but the fact Smoak is a better defender, can bat lefty, and is more ML ready makes is a wash to me. I actually liked the secondary Yankees pieces better. The 2B was intriguing given his performence the last two years, particularly his strong OBP skills. |
| 291. By: Lailoken on 07-09-2010 14:51:55 Beavan at 6'7 is kind of interesting. Only 100 hits allowed in 110 innings in AA this year. Maybe more velocity in his arm since he's only 21. Lueke makes up for the loss of Lowe. Another power righty. Missed most of last year but back better than ever this year. Lawson, not very interesting, a right-handed bat who plays second or the outfield. Not much speed or power but a decent defender who has added some patience this year. Not the haul I was thinking it would be though I like Smoak a teensy bit better than Montero (due to his switch-hitting, definite position, & ability to help in the big leagues right away). Adams & McAllister may not have been the bee's knees but I thought Texas had stepped up & offered another stud. Useful players but this is not Christmas in July. |
| 292. By: Lailoken on 07-09-2010 14:57:59 Lueke wasn't injured he was arrested on rape charges. |
| 293. By: huhwhat on 07-09-2010 15:01:56 Has Beaven lost velocity since he was drafted? I remember his scouting report before he was drafted, Velocity topped out at 96 but had command of a Plus Fastball, sliders in the low to mid 80's, big and strong with incredible arm strength and above-average athleticism. |
| 294. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 15:03:35 And tell me, Blogun, what's so bad about Fister? If Fister's a decent #4 (I think he's a #3), then what exactly is wrong with that? Don't fall in love with strikeouts. It's only one of many indicators. It's like admiring batting average, but never considering OBP. And Lawson could make some sense in the future, as a potential utility guy, who can draw a walk. Not a great piece, but potentially useful. |
| 295. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 15:09:29 There is nothing bad about Fister, but guys like him aren't hard to come by. I just see very little between this and Yankees deal. Which is fine. I was just hoping we'd get a little more when we heard talks with NY ended. |
| 296. By: d2ret on 07-09-2010 15:12:16 I think its awsome we didnt have to put Branyan in a deal. Now we have Branyan and Smoak in the middle of the order. ..Or Branyan could get dealt. I think Z is definately not done. |
| 297. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-09-2010 15:12:19 Beavan's stuff is better than Fisters. He was sitting 90-93 earlier in the season, had a slider with sharp, late bite that sometimes backs up on him. He has a change too. He was 95-97 as an amateur, no one has really been able to figure out the velocity drop - some think it is from pitching every 5th day + bullpens as a pro. |
| 298. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 15:19:27 Beavan is probably better than Fister, but I just don't see more than a #4 and I think most scouts feel the same. |
| 299. By: StandinPat on 07-09-2010 15:21:44 And what exactly was Wheeler??? |
| 300. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 16:32:40 As I said above -- we'll dissect the trade more soon -- but minus height I'm not buying the comparison. There is at least potential for Beavan to miss bats -- and the majority of people I've talked to like him considerably. This was not a throw-in type player -- very good get for Seattle. |
| 301. By: rjfrik on 07-09-2010 16:59:37 Blow, Beavan is better then McAllister who was coming back in the Yankees deal by a good margin and is a much better prospect then Fister. Beavan is a legit #3 starter and if his changeup keeps improving as it has he has a ceiling of a #2 starter. His 4 seemer is 95mph and his 2 seemer is 91mpn, he has a good slider and a changeup that the Rangers have been developing since he's been in their system. You should be happy with this trade. Lueke will be our set up man when he gets up here, most likely end of 2011. He throws in upper 90's and strikes out a ton of guys. Lawson probably never makes the league in my opinion and if he does it's a poor mans Josh Wilson. To get an actual young ball player with Justin Smoaks caliber/potential is very exciting. We haven't had a position player like this since Adam Jones and Smoak is a better prospect then Jones, IMO. |
| 302. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 17:08:40 Im still happy, I just thought we'd be getting back a bigger second prospect when we pulled away from the NY deal. That and I'm still not sure I like Smoak more than Montero. Im having a tough time with that one. Also, I don't think Beavan hits 95 consistently. Everything I've read said he sits 89-92 and doesn't miss bats. Ceiling could be a #3, but more likely a #4. |
| 303. By: Edman on 07-09-2010 18:09:27 #291, I agree. I look at walks and hits vs. innings pitched with minor league pitchers. If they give up more hits than innings pitched, generally, they're lucky. With Beavan, not only does he limit the number of hit, but he doesn't walk many. As we've seen with Lee this year, that is very important. The fewer chances to score that you allow, the better pitcher you'll be. I'm always skeptical of NY prospects. They tend to get overrated, by so much media hype. Not a potentially bad rotation, in a couple of years, if they can add a semi-veteran arm in the off-season. Jack is getting a lot better pieces to use, than he started with. |
| 304. By: jgstecker on 07-09-2010 18:10:52 In a Neutral park Montero may be a better hitter than Smoak. In Safeco, I have to think Smoak has bigger upside. Factor in defense--Smoak is an asset, Montero sounds like a fire plug--and I think Smoak is the much better fit here. |
| 305. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-09-2010 18:45:48 You forget that Rick Adair was the minor league pitching coordinator for the Rangers - he knows these guys. He knows what they can do and has worked with them. I do not think you can easily discount that. |
| 306. By: southpaw360 on 07-09-2010 18:55:53 Are there any other M's on the trade block now? What kind of other moves can/will Jack Z make? Could Branyan and Aardsma be had before the deadline? Has anyone heard of any other rumors? |
| 307. By: pwhit44 on 07-09-2010 19:10:59 We all know about Smoak's ceiling with the bat. What do we know about his defense at first? |
| 308. By: 200tang on 07-09-2010 19:24:51 @307 - I've seen GG upside posted in places and while that may or may not be true, everyone agrees he's above average. |
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