| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-02-2009 |
If the reports are to be trusted, the Pittsburgh Pirates, among other clubs, punted the 2009 draft, to an extent, so they could allocate funds to the international free agent market.The front runner to land the prize of this year's Latin class -- shortstop Miguel Angel Sano of the Dominican Republic -- Pittsburgh reached for Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez at No. 4 overall in last month's draft, paid him what basically amounts to slot, instead of selecting a $4-6 million player such as RHP Aaron Crow, LHP Tyler Matzek or RHP Shelby Miller, among others.
Sano is expected to cost about $4 million and is a heck of an athlete with some really intriguing physical tools. But I don't get it.
Tyler Matzek for $6 million or Sano for four? Matzek, not even close.
Let me tell you what goes through my mind when clubs splurge for all these international talents every summer, throwing around signing bonuses that the Top 15-20 selections in the draft typically warrant.
What's the track record of these international kids versus that of the draft picks?
I can't believe clubs can actually believe that signing a relatively unknown kid from the Dominican or Venezuela is smarter than spending similar money -- or even more -- on players they have been able to follow for years, who do not have a cultural or language barrier to deal with and who come without any chance of bearing falsified ages and identities.
Sixteen year old athletes are a lot more raw and unrefined than even 18-year-old athletes... it's just fact, just like prep draftees versus college draftees.
If Pittsburgh, or any other club for that matter, wanted players with bigger upside rather than going high probability on lesser talent, the research proves that high school kids in the US, Puerto Rico and Canada are much better bets to both make an impact, and avoid flaming out.
What I did to come to this conclusion was the following: I went back five years in Baseball America's Top 50 High School prospects (the lists are often Top 100, I went 50 deep only) for the draft and took a look at where those players are now. Are they top prospects? Are they good, promising young big-leaguers? Not a high percentage of them, but more so than the top signings on the world market. Three years later, when those prospects that were in the Top 50 that went to college are draft eligible again, very few of them (17% during the first three years of the five-season sample I used) were selected in the Top 100 of the draft out of college.
See? Athletes change, and quickly, so why would clubs want to draft even younger players that they know so much less about and give them similar money?
I broached this subject with a former Venezuelan area scout that is now scouting Europe for an NL West club, and this is what he said in an email response:
"That's a good point, but I know our club sees value in it in certain spots. But I think that's the thing -- in certain spots. When I was in (Latin America) I would get asked questions such as 'when you saw this kid a year ago and then again this summer, what kind of improvement have you seen?' And that meant physically, on the field, off the field, maturity, all that kind of stuff. Because it's definitely a big risk, even if you throw the age discrepancies aside. The best players on a freshman or JV team aren't always the best players on their varsity team, and that's what you are looking at.
"The money is out of my hands, I was never asked to put a monetary value on a player, that's not my thing. But projecting is easily the toughest thing scouts and ball clubs do. So I do get your point -- why put a couple extra years of projecting on my table and bet even more money on it?"
In the end, I just believe more in the Draft than I do in signing players from abroad, and would much prefer to see the Mariners spend on the draft -- even in a weak year. I would much rather have Rex Brothers or Tommy Joseph than Alexis Parma or Guillermo Pimentel, even if it cost me a little bit more cash.
I don't necessarily believe the M's punted the draft because they were allocating certain funds for the IFAs, I just think if they are on a tighter budget than in the past, that they were better off drafting the BPA at 27 and 33 than they were taking Franklin and Baron and perhaps using more money on July 2nd prospects.
kicking-the-draft-for-the-international-market
Comments
The following 27 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: ASUBoyd on 07-02-2009 22:24:39 I hope Pimentel is not just a left-handed version of Wlad... |
| 2. By: Lonnie on 07-02-2009 23:03:00 Your logic is pretty good, Jason. I have wondered for a while now why there is so much emphasis by so many teams on the international market. Lonnie |
| 3. By: safecochatter on 07-03-2009 09:59:59 i think this from the scout really hits home for me.. "The best players on a freshman or JV team aren't always the best players on their varsity team, and that's what you are looking at" take any average size city and look at there 12 year old all-stars and then the 14 year old all-stars and check out the freshman/jv roster and of course varsity and you'll see players hitting the wall talent wise at every stop. so drafting international "kids" at 16 is one thing,giving one of them millions to sign is a waste. once again baseball needs to police itself,and won't. |
| 4. By: safecochatter on 07-03-2009 10:08:48 after reading #3 i think my point got a little lost....my point with the various age groups 'if folowed thru the years" u would see major changes in roster names at every stop. drafting usa kids at 18 is hard enough. |
| 5. By: Slack on 07-03-2009 10:34:18 I think it would be funny if Sano changed gears and signed somewhere else. That would teach the Pirates a lesson. Just a funny thought. |
| 6. By: John_S on 07-03-2009 10:56:22 Interesting...per the Dallas Morning News via Bakers blog, mlb had to kick in 15 mil to help the rangers make payroll. I wonder how that would effect negotiations with Purke and Scheppers? I wonder if the Rangers will be unable to meet the pitchers contract demands especially Purke's. |
| 7. By: Juan Valdez on 07-03-2009 18:20:12 Jason, you make some good points. I've often wondered why teams spend so much money on 16 year olds when there is such a difference in physical development between 16 and 18, not to mention actual baseball skills. Do you think, instead of spending $2 million on one guy, would teams be better off taking that money and having their pick of the top 4-6 guys at the next level of talent? I'm wondering if it would make more sense to do that and simply play the numbers game to some extent, banking on the idea that some of those guys will in fact develop into more impressive prospects by the time they are 18 or 19. Does this make sense? |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-03-2009 19:52:23 I'd take stabs at guys here and there, but I wouldn't ever give 3-4 million. Ynoa has more of a chance to fail than any of the elite prep pitchers drafted in the past five years. So why pay him twice as much? |
| 9. By: DAMellen on 07-04-2009 01:03:24 The only time I can remember seeing the abbreviation FTW, it was on the back of a Vines album and stood for the Fuck the World, but that doesn't seem to apply to your tweet. What else can it mean? |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-04-2009 01:33:08 For the Win! |
| 11. By: CrockDaddy on 07-05-2009 18:55:05 Hey Jason, is there any news on how Triunfel is doing? |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-05-2009 20:08:19 There's nothing new to report. He's out for the year, the club is hoping and expecting him to participate in the ADP this fall. |
| 13. By: jd7979 on 07-06-2009 14:14:45 Jason, any chance the M's try and put together a package for Jake Fox from the Cubs? He'll be blocked by Lee and Ramirez for the near future anyway. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-06-2009 14:30:35 Would you give up, say, Michael Saunders or Liddi and Adcock for Jake Fox when you have Branyan for now and Carp in the system right now? |
| 15. By: jd7979 on 07-06-2009 15:39:07 I guess that I would ask if 1. Can Fox be an everyday 3B? And 2. Does his bat project better than Saunders? |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-06-2009 16:52:31 1. No 2. Maybe. More raw power, but everything else is in slight favor of Saunders, including base running and defensive value. Fox is a 1B. Haven't seen him in the outfield, though, but he's not average or better, and certainly can't play center at all. You don't deal Saunders for that. |
| 17. By: Lefty on 07-06-2009 17:06:51 Jason, What about the Cal league inflates hitters' statistics while hurting pitchers? Comparing Liddi's numbers to last year, has he improved or is he just benefiting from the league he's hitting in or both? Quite the improvement in numbers from last year. Thanks |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-06-2009 20:05:35 He's vastly improved, but his prospect status has not changed nearly as much as his numbers have. He's not a 3B and there are still a lot of questions to be answered at the plate for him. |
| 19. By: bikozu on 07-06-2009 21:34:02 Speaking of international guys, Kenta Suda has looked more controlled in Peoria this year. 23 batters faced 4 hits (1 hr) 2 walks 8 strikeouts He has a 3-pitch mix and could develop as a starter, but they're limiting his innings at this point. Do you think he gets up to Everett and starts this season? |
| 20. By: yohnhimself on 07-07-2009 01:17:50 Looks like Seager is about to sign and will start at Class A Clinton. http://www.salisburypost.com/Sports/070509-Seager-close-to-deal |
| 21. By: Marco on 07-07-2009 04:39:37 [He's not a 3B...] I agree his present technique does not allow him to play 3B at higher levels. In your opinion is there any chance they can teach him to improve or he's definitevly headed to 1B ? |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-07-2009 11:08:23 Re: Suda Great arm, stuff isn't the issue, its delivery; repeating it, and about sustaining his low-90s velo. Re: Liddi He's limited athletically, so while he'll improve with reps, he's not ever going to be good there. |
| 23. By: John_S on 07-07-2009 11:29:05 I don't get Halman at all it's like a repeat of last year. He struggles for a bit then gets sent down and then comes back up and tears it up. Jason, Do you know anything about Halman's emotional makeup? Is he the type to get caught up in the hype and then starts to press? He's straight mashing the ball right now but i'm afraid that this is going to be a pattern with him where he scuffs for a bit has to take a break by being sent down and then mashes the ball after he returns. |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-07-2009 11:40:44 He's not any different the past week or so than he's been all year. Nine Ks in 47 ABs is still neatly 20%. He's gone through similar stretches earlier in the year. Let's talk about Halman turning it around when he actually does so. And it's not like he wasn't hitting for power before. If he does this for a month or more, than it's worth talking about. |
| 25. By: baseballman on 07-07-2009 12:18:35 JAC, who would you compare Saunders bat to? What he project to hit in the majors? .300 avg, 20+ hr? or is that too much? I know you probably dont like to do things like this because there is so much that goes into it, but if he keeps progressing, what does he project to hit? thanks |
| 26. By: bikozu on 07-08-2009 05:15:39 Re: Suda So watching BB rates will be the biggest thing to look for improvement in at this point, right? |
| 27. By: Marco on 07-08-2009 05:42:29 Jason, is that the M's organization is looking for in a young player, just BB percentage and not .OBP and .SLG combined ? |
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