Prospect Insider - Just Heard: Player of Interest

Just Heard: Player of Interest

By Jason A. Churchill

By 09-14-2009

I just heard from a source close enough to the situation to buy into the idea that the Milwaukee Brewers fully expect to move shortstop J.J. Hardy, despite the four-year veteran's value being at its lowest since he broke into the league. Alcides Escobar is the Milwaukee shortstop going forward and Rickie Weeks is due back off injury to man second base.

Hardy struggled mightily this season before being optioned to Triple-A Nashville, which interrupted his service time clock, protracting his free agency time table back a year, which is the one thing that helps his value.

Milwaukee could choose to deal Weeks and give Hardy a chance to win the job at second base this spring, or they could trade Price Fielder, move Mat Gamel to first base and give Hardy a chance to win the job at third base.

But that's a waste of his biggest asset right now, his defense, which generally grades above average at shortstop, according to most metrics as well as the scouting eye.

"I think Hardy gets moved, to be honest with you," the source said. "Rickie was turning it on until he got hurt and J.J. is headed in the wrong direction. It's probably just time to move on for both parties."

This doesn't necessary mean Jack Zduriencik is going to make a big play for Hardy, but he should, and here's why.

Jack Wilson isn't the answer.

Wilson can defend, as well as any shortstop in baseball over the past handful of seasons, too, but the dude just can't hit, and if a better shortstop can be acquired without parting with the few impact talents the club boasts, that move has to be made over picking up Wilson's $8.4 million option for 2010, or extending him at $6-plus million per season for two or three years.

Hardy is younger, and has much better chance to contribute positively at the plate than does Wilson, and isn't a free agent-to-be, either. He'll be as costly as Wilson would over a two-year period, perhaps more via arbitration, but at least there's some upside there. With Wilson, what you see is what you get.

I don't know what it would take to get Hardy, or if the two clubs can even match up in such negotiations. But I'd bet Zduriencik explores the idea this winter, and may do so even if Wilson is inked to a deal. Jose Lopez is certainly not Jack's type of player, and his trade value, coming off a season in which he's hit 23 home runs and is slugging .466 despite playing half his game at the Safe, will probably never be higher than it is right now.

And it's certainly not out of the question that Lopez goes into the 2010 season as the M's answer at third base, considering Adrian Beltre's pending free agency and the idea that Bill Hall may be most valuable as a utility player, rather than an everyday guy at one position for six months.

In the end, the M's don't have a lot of options to add 10-15 wins to their roster for 2010, and shortstop is one of those spots. There's no excuse for passing on the chance early in the offseason and extending Wilson's contract. Wilson should be the fallback, not the ideal talent for the position.

Notes:
When the Mariners purchased the contract of catcher Adam Moore, the club released RHP Stephen Kahn to make room on the 40-man roster. Kahn, a fifth-round pick in the 2005 draft, suffered two major knee injuries and thus never really got the chance to develop. He throws hard, even post surgeries, but his secondary stuff is as soft as his delivery. at Loyola Marymount, Kahn operated as a starting pitcher with a plus curve ball, but all the time off appears to have eaten his breaking ball for breakfast and he experience further health problems this season, limiting the right-hander to just one inning on the mound this summer.

Kahn will land somewhere, but with Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields in the system, and Mark Lowe on the 25-man, Kahn was as expendable as anyone not guaranteed millions of dollars, ahem, Carlos Silva.

In talking to some baseball people the past few weeks, the early line on offering arbitration on LHP Erik Bedard is "even money" and "no chance" with Beltre. The M's only chance to avoid paying either player larger sums of dough through arbitration, is to agree to either come to terms before the tender deadline passes, or to risk offering them arbitration in hopes that they two sides can agree to a contract before the hearings would occur.

Considering his poor 2009 season and health concerns, I don't see the club taking that risk with Beltre. With Bedard, I can see the player being okay with taking an incentive-laden deal before he even has a chance to test the market. As long as the Mariners are fair, anyway.

Jack has two tough decisions to make right there.

just-heard:-player-of-interest

Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: The Great Pumpkin on 09-14-2009 20:40:02
Could an infield of Branyon, Hardy-2B, Wilson-SS, Lopez-3B work for next year? Would Lopez be a better fit than Hall at 3B if it came down to that?

2. By: The Great Pumpkin on 09-14-2009 20:43:00
Nevermind that 2nd question, you answered that in the article. I'm just not sure how Lopez's Defense projects at 3B. Would he be below average?

3. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 09-14-2009 21:01:07
I think this team will need more offense from their infield. And we all know that NL hitters do not fair well in AL. So both Wilson and Hardy together is not good for this team. Maybe one of them but come on we need some hitters.

And Branyon does not provide sufficient D. He should be platooned at DH.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-14-2009 21:58:17
Lopez, with time, could be average at third base, but right now, Hall is probably a little bit better due to having more recent experience.

Not sure platoon Branyan makes sense if the reason is for defense. It will all depend on who the DH is going to be. If the club inks Delgado or Nick Johnson, and they keep Branyan, too, some sort of 1B share works just fine. But if it's a pure DH like Thome, Branyan is your 1B. He's not awful over there -- strangely, his UZR is about the same as that of Mark Teixeira this season.

5. By: gopilots on 09-14-2009 23:40:25
I agree about Wilson and would love to see the M's pick up Hardy. Hopefully the free agent market will stay relatively cheap and the desired infield could be Branyan, 2B Lopez (of the Felipe variety) Hardy and the Jose Lopez at third.

6. By: bikozu on 09-15-2009 00:56:41
If we can get Hardy or Brignac for a decent value, then I'm all for that. If not, I prefer spending our FA (and other money) on a couple of bats.
Nick Johnson is my first choice for first base. Generally an average fielder at 1B and stayed healthy this year. Might be able to get him cheap for a 2 year contract or so.
But for DH, I think targeting the last year of Matsui's contract would be a good idea. We could probably get a discount or a prospect thrown in (he's due $13 mil next season). He's a guy with PURE pull power and would benefit a lot from Safeco's short RF porch and I think he wouldn't end up costing us that much.

7. By: gopilots on 09-15-2009 01:21:11
I thought that Matsui was a full free agent this year. I agree that he might fit nice in Safeco, but I would like to see a DH/first base combo of Branyan, Carp and then add a good right-handed hitter who could platoon at times at both spots. Bill Hall could be a possibility for this if he proves to hit. He has shown power, has decent speed and could still be available to back up in the infield or outfield on his off days. This could give him a good number of ABs to stay sharp. This would give the flexibility for an additional back up infielder, or outfielder, or a true power righthanded DH/PH.

8. By: rocketdawg31 on 09-15-2009 02:29:25

I'm seriously hoping that Hardy comes to us, I infinitely prefer the idea of him in a Mariners' uni over Jack Wilson.

Guy couldn't hit poop if he fell into a pig-pen.

Brignac would still be a number one favorite thing to do, but realistically we just don't have much that Tampa Bay would say "Oh yeah, we'll be needing that".

The Rays don't need Brignac, but they'll pry an A-1 prospect from someone (other than us, unless I'm seriously undervaluing Zduriencik's Jedi-ness)for him.

Hardy and the Brew-Has, though...I see some possibilities there.

9. By: mymrbig on 09-15-2009 09:10:12
My main concern about the M's picking up Hardy is that he is basically Beltre with the bat (low OBP, good-but-not-great power). Sure, he is much better than Jack Wilson. But some of his HR will die in Safeco, which limits his value going forward. Plus you have to wonder how he would respond moving from the NL to the AL. I generally think the move is overblown for hitters, and has a much bigger effect on pitchers. But still, he certainly isn't a sure thing moving forward.

10. By: candasharp on 09-15-2009 13:28:47
What about trying to pick up Casey Kotchman on the cheap? LH Bat, 26 and very good glove. Not a lot of power but good plate discipline. Seems like he might be worth a shot at resurrecting his once promising potential.

11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-15-2009 14:06:05
He's second-year arby eligible this winter after making $2.885m this season. You're looking at a $4.5-5 million player who is an above-average glove -- not great, he leads the league in UZR for 1B, but 1B crop is way down this year. Even Teixieria and Pujols are down -- and a below-average bat.

That's definitely not worth more than $4 million bucks. But heck, he could be a non-tender by the Red Sox.

12. By: FelixElRey on 09-16-2009 22:58:09
Just read that Uggla expects to be traded this offseason...I'm not a huge fan, but I figured if a "big name" middle infielder is on the block, it ought to be discussed.

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