| By Adam H. Wong |  | By 04-09-2012 |
There are a handful of things a disgruntled employee could do to express their angst towards an employer. The employee could lash out towards their boss, but that would ensure immediate termination. Perhaps they could file a grievance, but bureaucracy's umbrella always protects from the top down. Most often, the dissatisfied employee keeps their dismay to themselves, letting the issue pass or attempting to positively resolve the issue.
John Lannan decided to share his disapproval with the entire baseball community. He was optioned to AAA this last week, and to express his dissatisfaction, he emailed local reporters to acknowledge his request to be traded. Lannan believes he belongs in a big league rotation, and with a salary of about $5 million, it makes sense that the Nationals would think of Lannan as more than an expensive insurance plan. But with the acquisition of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, and the development of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, there isn't much room left for the low-ceiling Lannan with Ross Detwiler outperforming him during spring training.
If Lannan does get moved, Mariners fans should be mindful of where he lands, as it might be an indication of what kind of player or package could be had for Jason Vargas.
Vargas had a good night this past Friday against Oakland. The only runs he gave up were on a pitch he absolutely grooved to Yoenis Cespedes, and it was a moonshot. Other than that homer, Vargas did a great job holding down the Athletic's lineup, going 5.1 innings with three strikeouts and one walk. Overall, he had good command of the strike zone, throwing 58 of 91 pitches for strikes, good for a 63.7% strike rate.
Both players are owed nearly the same amount of money this year, and in terms of results, they are pretty similar. Vargas has a career 4.50 FIP, while Lannan has a career 4.61 FIP. How they get results is where they differ, in that Vargas is more of a flyball pitcher and Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher. I would assume that any front office that would take on either Lannan or Vargas would take their home park factors into account, but Jamie Moyer somehow ended up in Colorado, so who knows.
Lannan could fit on any roster that needs more pitching depth, so it's not out of the question that a club like Boston could add him if the Daniel Bard experiment doesn't work. Likewise, if a club like Minnesota is struggling to get innings from their starters, Lannan could be an option.
Vargas would be a good fit at Dodger Stadium or Busch Stadium, but only if Los Angeles or St. Louis had a back-of-the-rotation starter go down with an injury. Even if either club has another starter go down, the Dodgers have RHP Nate Eovaldi and RHP Chris Withrow waiting in the wings, while RHP Zach Lee isn't too far off, either; the Cardinals have top pitching prospect RHP Shelby Miller knocking at the door, and Lance Lynn could make the transition to the rotation once the club feels he is ready.
While Lannan's perceived worth has been diminished because of the demotion, Vargas' worth as a back-end starter is hard to gauge simply because of need. He's the Mariners No. 2 starter because of necessity, not skill, and profiles more as a No. 4 or 5 starter. It's still early, but if Vargas puts together a great first half, who knows, maybe he could be a part of a package like the Doug Fister trade last year. It would be a huge win if Vargas and another player could net a group of players like Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, Chance Ruffin and Francisco Martinez, so I'm sure the Mariners' front office will be pulling for him to play out of his mind this year. Looking outside of the organization, a player like Jeremy Guthrie was traded for Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel, so there can be value had for a league average pitcher.
I don't see Jason Vargas with the Mariners organization on August 1, so it'll be interesting to see how well he does leading up to the trade deadline. And is it a coincidence that both Brandon League and Vargas are welcoming an offensive cornerstone to Seattle? I think not.
Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.
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Comments
The following 23 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: hit and run on 04-09-2012 02:59:29 I personally don't understand all the joy that many get from trade talk, especially this early in the year. But whatever, to each his own. I personally would rather have Felix, Lee, Fister, Vargas and Pineda / Bedard as our rotation while we wait for the youth movement. Yeah that would mean Carp instead of Smoak at 1st, Moore instead of Montero and Lidi, Catricala and Seager sharing DH / 3B. Oh yeah Saunders in LF with Guti in CF. But I love a great rotation. Please tell me what we could get for Vargas or League that significantly improves a position from what we have? No more AAAA depth please. I'm talking to you Robinson, Wells and Furbush. : ) |
| 2. By: micahjr on 04-09-2012 06:54:50 I'm going to put this out there. I am so tired of hearing Felix, Lee, Fister, Vargas, Pineda rotation. Please just stop! Lee was never going to re-sign with us and we got an elite package for him. Pineda is a young volatile arm who will likely get lit up in New York for a while. Lueke also turned into John Jaso, who gives us depth at a position that we lack depth at. Noesi very well may replace Pineda's production this season and the presence of our top 4 pitching prospects, 3 of which have #1 potential, made trading him for Montero the absolute right decision. His value was not likely to be as high as putting up a season where he should have been ROY over Hell-boy at another time. You could make the same argument for Fister. They traded from a position of strength on a gamble to fill out a position of weakness. It's a risk reward proposition. May I remind you that neither Vargas or League are under contract for next season, which tilts the risk-reward in favor of us trading them. League is going to get big money, and trading him makes absolute sense unless we are in the midst of a playoff run. If that is happening, we likely don't trade either unless someone is blowing the doors off the MLB level and demanding a promotion from AAA. |
| 3. By: Docmilo on 04-09-2012 07:04:09 The only problem with your argument hit and run is Lee wouldn't be here right now. He signed in Philly for a reason. As far as Fister goes, I think you could be right on that one. I keep hoping Wells can replace Ichiro in RF next year, and Martinez is supposed to be the real deal. At the same time, Peguero could be the answer in RF and I'm starting to think the M's are going to have a very tough time prying Seager from the hot corner. The kid can play. Why the talk about trading Vargas anyways? Hultzen, Paxton and Walker have yet to throw 150 innings in professional baseball in one year. That could be a goal for all three of them this year. Next year they should be shooting for 180ish. So, it's at least 2 years before these guys are ready to fill a major league roster for a full season. Who here really thinks one of these three arms is going to throw 150 innings in the minors and then come up and do more than throw out of the pen in September? Maybe Hultzen or Paxton gets a spot start later in the year if they progress, but that just adds to their inning total and gets them shut down quicker. Vargas will play out his 2013 year of control and reach free agency in 2014 when the M's have arms to replace him. |
| 4. By: Jerry on 04-09-2012 08:11:14 I agree with the critiques of Hit and Run's post. I'd add the issue of $$$. If we had signed signed Lee (which is unlikely), we would have about $40 million tied up in two starting pitchers. That's not a good way to distribute financial resources, especially for a non contending club with such a huge weakness on offense. And Fister isn't as good as his numbers looked last year. He's a slightly more advanced version of Beavan. I bet he'll regress this year. Since the M's have a good defense and play in Safeco, we are always going to have guys like this. Trading them while their value is highest is good business. And why talk about trades? Because this club won't contend. Teams need to either contend or be building for the future. Clubs get into trouble when the lose track of where they are (Bavasi being the best example). The M's will almost definitely be sellers at the deadline, and should have some guys to trade: Figgins, League, Vargas, Olivo, and maybe Millwood (if he's pitching well) and Ichiro (if he's performing and the club can handle the PR hit). SELL SELL SELL! Vargas and League in particular are the types of guys a team like the M's should shop around: their value is higher for a contending club. We've got a good foundation of young talent. The team needs to continue to accumulate talent and let the kids who are already here get their feet wet and develop into cornerstone players. That's why a lot of us focus on the future, because this isn't a good team right now. |
| 5. By: micahjr on 04-09-2012 08:28:02 Doc Milo, why would we not trade Vargas when we have Erasmo already at the big league level and ready to start? No roster moves need to be made to slide him into the rotation, and his innings count will be low enough that he can fill out the rest of the season starting without running into his limit. If he gets close to his limit you have 2 guys in Hultzen and Paxton who will likely fill out the rest of the innings that Erasmo won't pitch. If you are bullish on Walker, you can make that three. Furbush is also down in AAA and can start for us if need be. There is no reason to keep Vargas assuming he has trade value, and assuming that the Ms are out of the running for a playoff spot. League is a no-brainer to trade to a contender if we are out of contention. Why are we talking about trades right now? It's in the article title: John Lannan, a player comparable to Vargas in results and making about the same amount of money has demanded a trade. Adam is on point! |
| 6. By: hit and run on 04-09-2012 09:12:56 I just cannot believe the trade talk started this early. We are 3 and 1! Can't we enjoy it for a while? Last year the "what can we get for Pineda talk started crazy early? What is nexf? What can we get for Hultzen and Walker? Vargas in the Safe is like Moyer and Washburn in Safeco. More valuable to us than other teams. All the GM's know about xFIP by now. Don't expect to get more for him than what we already have in bushels. What you will get at the trade deadline is salary relief and a chance to bring up Paxton. |
| 7. By: hit and run on 04-09-2012 09:13:42 I just cannot believe the trade talk started this early. We are 3 and 1! Can't we enjoy it for a while? Last year the "what can we get for Pineda talk started crazy early? What is nexf? What can we get for Hultzen and Walker? Vargas in the Safe is like Moyer and Washburn in Safeco. More valuable to us than other teams. All the GM's know about xFIP by now. Don't expect to get more for him than what we already have in bushels. What you will get at the trade deadline is salary relief and a chance to bring up Paxton. |
| 8. By: maqman on 04-09-2012 09:48:04 agree League and Vargas should be traded near the deadline, even if we seem to be loitering with intent for a wild card berth. We have suitable replacements on hand and dumping them would save us about $5MM over the second half of the season. We seem to be developing a wonderful problem of finding playing time for some nice looking pieces. |
| 9. By: Edman on 04-09-2012 12:36:41 Agreed, hit and run, the trade talk so early in the season is like masterbating to a Penthouse magazine and calling it sex. Trades aren't looming out there. What Washington gets for Lannon has little to do with what Vargas is worth. Vargas is lefthanded and won't devalue his trade value by asking for a trade. It's senseless masterbation at this point. Some enjoy it, because they think there's a golden trade waiting, or they get excited about saving money. Teams need veterans as part of the balance. To assume that Vargas and League get traded is a huge supposition at this point. I agree, they are candidates, but I wouldn't pretend that it's as high a priority for the Mariners, as it is for some here. I guess we'll all see. So don't get excited for either side of the coin. At this point, it's just talk for the sake of talking, and not much else. |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-09-2012 13:07:09 There are far too many similarities between Lannan and Vargas to say it has "little" to do with what Vargas is worth. The most recent deals impact the market, free agency AND trade. They both make the same salary and while there is a difference between the two ability wise, it's not as large as the difference between a No. 1 and Vargas. And since I asked via Twitter and email every single day what the M's could get for Vargas in trade, this scenario is more than just relevant. |
| 11. By: slamcactus on 04-09-2012 14:03:50 The point, Edman, is that Vargas, much like Adam Kennedy before him, is a placeholder rather than a building block for the next good Mariners team. He's in his second to last year of club control and will make just under $5 million this year, meaning he's set to cost about $7.5 million next year in arbitration. WAR says he's been worth more than that the past 2 years, but he's the kind of player who walks a razor thin margin between effective and useless, and that's a hefty price to pay for a guy with his skill set - I highly doubt he'd get it on the open market, even if he repeats this year (see, look: us analytical types can move past WAR/$!). I don't know about you, but I'm not all that comfortable with a team with a payroll between $80-100million committing $7.5 million to a soft-tossing lefty who survives on pitching to contact and keeping the ball in the park. And if two of Noesi/Hultzen/Paxton/Ramirez/Beaven/Furbush/Walker are ready to contribute to the rotation next year, I think we're looking at a very likely non-tender candidate at that price. That means the time to get anything for him is this off-season, where a team that could use some rotation depth gets at least a half-season of an effective pitcher at a pretty good price before deciding whether or not to open the bank for him next winter. Obviously you don't commit to making the team a couple wins worse when you're in contention. But anybody who seriously expects this team to be in contention in about 30 days' time is popping happy pills at an alarming rate. And if by some crazy stroke we find ourselves in contention come mid-May, and if whatever's on the table in a proposed Vargas trade won't at least keep us as good as we would be without it, then you don't pull the trigger on the deal. Ignoring the possibility of trading your assets while their value is at a peak is exactly how you perpetuate a cycle of mediocrity. |
| 12. By: slamcactus on 04-09-2012 14:04:38 Sorry, paragraph 3 should read "this mid-season," not "this off-season." |
| 13. By: slamcactus on 04-09-2012 14:08:37 My favorite thing about the "Don't talk about trading Vargas!" reaction is that Vargas came to the team in the exact kind of deal that these people say is so awful. He was a throw-in at the back-end of the J.J. Putz deal that featured Gutierrez and Carp as the headliners. |
| 14. By: docsmith on 04-09-2012 15:19:15 Am I the only one that is now paying as much or more attention to the Jackson Generals as the Mariners themselves? |
| 15. By: Edman on 04-09-2012 16:11:40 How many of the "set the market" prognostications actually work out as we baseball fans think they will? Need is relative. What Washington gets for Lannan may or may not have and real impact on what comes back in return. Personally, I don't care. Jack is a smart trader, so he'd use it to help leverage. But there are way too many variables to get any form of accuracy. I have no problem if some enjoy playing that game, but many times I read bitching and whinning because, "so-and-so got players A, B, and C, why didn't we get something similar?" The reasons are numerous. It's always a matter of perception. |
| 16. By: slamcactus on 04-09-2012 16:51:24 They work pretty well. There's been a dramatic increase in the past 8-9 years in the value of cost-controlled players as teams are valuing cost efficiency more and understanding age curves better. There's also been a huge downturn in the valuation on guys with superficially low ERAs. It wasn't too long ago that Carl Pavano was the class of his free agent market thanks to an 18-8 record and 3.00 ERA, numbers that anyone with half a brain knew wouldn't be repeated. If there's a Lannan trade, it's not out of the question that it will be something of a template. Yes, need varies. Also, Ned Colletti still runs a major league front office, and his player valuation defies understanding. No two deals will be identical, but they can give you an idea of the kind of return you can expect. All this is to say, it's not a worthless endeavor. If the Mariners are out of it at the deadline this year, they have exactly three veteran assets who make a salary that could make them interesting to teams: Vargas, League, and he who shall not be traded. It's not too early to think about what the return might be, especially with a similar type of player potentially on the block. |
| 17. By: hit and run on 04-09-2012 17:39:46 Carter Capps got stretched out to 3 innings today. Jason, do you have any indication the M's are still considering him as a starter? I know he could be a great future closer but having one more top potential starter would make me feel a bit better about trading current starters. I remember when we had Gil Meche, Rafael Soriano, Mat Thornton, Rett Johnson, and JJ Putz all starting in AA with Joel Pineiro in AAA. The next year we had Bobby Madritsch, Clint Nageotte, Cha Seung Baek, Travis Blackley also lighting it up in the AA party. Maybe only Gil Meche had the hype that our big three have right now, but my point is, you can never have enough starting pitching. Btw, that first San Antonio Missions team had Chris Snelling, Antonio Perez, Jamal Strong and Gregg Dobbs. The next year a 19 year old Jose Lopez joined and Justin Leone replaced the promote hitters. Julio Mateo, Aaron Taylor and Allan Simpson were relievers on the 2001 team with George Sherrill joining the following year. Those two teams remind me of the current Jackson Generals team. Hope the careers of the current team play out better though. |
| 18. By: slamcactus on 04-09-2012 17:55:45 Nageotte peaked at the #45 prospect in the game per BA, Meche at 78, Blackley at 63, and Pineiro at 80. Johnson, Thornton, Baek, Putz, and Madritsch never cracked the top 100. There was a lot of depth there (Jeff Heaverlo and Rich Dorman were also both pretty decent 'spects when healthy), but Hultzen and Walker are both pretty significantly above any of those guys as prospects, while Paxton is in the same range as the better ones (clocked in at #52 this year at BA, but a lot of other folks have him higher). The only pitchers we've had in the past decade-ish who've as much or more hype than our current crop are Felix, Rafael Soriano, and Ryan Anderson. But yes, your point is well-taken. Pitching prospects are scary. With our current trio, getting one good starter would be about par for the course, we'd be lucky to get two, and astronomically lucky to hit on all three. |
| 19. By: frontstreetfan on 04-10-2012 08:00:20 Comment for Post #13 I think Mike Carp has surprised most of us with his development to date and was never a headline name in the Mets trade for Putz. Interesting to see how far down he was as well as Vargas in consideration of the original trade. Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3761556 Carp was a mid range prospect, at best a throw-in up until last year's mid season surge he was not considered a contender for a starting position on the Mariners more of a AAAAA. just saying it was perhaps one of the best trades Z has made as our starting shortstop also came via M Cleto trade who was also part of that Mets trade. Vargas will net us a couple of similar prospects count on it it's Z's pattern. |
| 20. By: 11records on 04-10-2012 08:23:42 Off Topic... But, anyone know why Chiang would already be up in AAA after only 3 games in Jackson, and why after 3 games of crushing the ball Carlos Peguero has sat the last 2? Are these moves related? |
| 21. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-10-2012 09:05:49 11records, Peguero is day-to-day with a knee issue, two other OF are on the DL there. Chiang is there in AAA as insurance. |
| 22. By: 11records on 04-10-2012 11:39:22 Thanks! Well, hopefully they'll have Guti rehabbing there soon too! |
| 23. By: Mackie on 04-11-2012 09:59:12 Nice article, Adam. This isn't necessarily "trade talk" as much as it is a good observation on what sorts of players the Mariners might expect to get in a trade should they decide to trade Vargas. If the Nats trade Lannan and get a lousy return, maybe it might help the Mariners decide to simply keep Vargas; he certainly has value. And of course some of it all depends on whether certain pitchers in the Nats' rotation hold up or not (i.e. if one of their SPs ends up on the DL they might need Lannan), and how Vargas does this season. I see no suggestion in the piece that the Mariners need to trade Vargas, merely an opinion/speculation from Adam that Vargas won't be with the M's after the trading deadline. Depending on how certain Mariners minor-leaguers do, it is entirely possible. Let's see where things are in another month or two. As teams determine their needs, the real trade talk will begin, but for now, what's wrong with some speculation? For the Mariners, who are loaded with holes and question marks, it seems talking about them is all about speculation. |
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