| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 09-13-2011 |
Prospect Insider is taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. Earlier PI profiled scouting director Tom McNamara and then took a look at the candidates to get some time in September. We also talked about Michael Saunders, the suits and ownership and Eric Wedge. Today, let's explore general manager Jack Zduriencik.The Seattle Mariners hired Jack Zduriencik after the 2008 season. The club had just gone five seasons without making the playoffs and lost 93-101 games in four of those five seasons under Bill Bavasi.
Zduriencik came to Seattle with a plan and despite 187 losses the past two years, the executive is staying the course.
"You've got to believe in what you are doing," Zduriencik said. "We have a plan and nothing that has happened since we got here has changed that."
Some might ask why -- why not change the plan that has produced two awful win-loss records in a row, and why did the organization extended Zduriencik's contract through and beyond next season.
The answer is that the rebuild is in motion, regardless of the poor results at the big league level, and much of the results are in the minors and the young players are on roster right now, and it's not just about Dustin Ackley. The club has acquired several potential pieces to the puzzle, as indicated by the improvement of the farm system and the infusion of young talent in the big leagues this season.
Zduriencik's tenure is certainly not without its negatives. The contract given to Chone Figgins -- four years, $36 million guaranteed, $17 million of which is still owed to him -- has clearly not worked out, and the Josh Lueke situation after the Cliff Lee trade with Texas doesn't look so good on the resume, either.
There are, however, far more good transactions than bad, and the franchise is in a much better position after three seasons than it was as the 2008 campaign wound down. There are answers at key positions such as second base and a load of candidates to fill the others, such as left field, first base and third base.
The strength of the farm system is enough to suggest the club has the ammo to go out and make an impact acquisition or two to bolster the offense, too. The draft has been huge.
"The draft is always going to be important for us," Zduriencik said. "My background is in scouting. You have to have a foundation and the draft is the way to do it, otherwise you are always spending lots of money to fill holes. You have to draft wisely. You have to. That's how you do it, and that has always been my philosophy."
Despite adding Lee for the 2010 season, Zduriencik says the club was still on the same course of rebuilding with a goal of a long-term sustainable winner. "We never, ever, ever got away from building, from signing and developing your own players," the GM added.
The club contended this season until that 17-game losing streak tore things apart, but in June and early July, there were many who thought the M's should sacrifice a young piece or two to add a hitter and try to catch the Texas Rangers. Zduriencik didn't see that as the smart way to go.
"It wasn't what I wanted to do," he said. "It didn't make sense to try for a one and done. We're going to continue to build for length, not a short time."
Zduriencik did say that if there was a true impact bat available, that might have changed things, but those out on the trade market included Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Kosuke Fukudome and Hunter Pence. Yes, Hunter Pence. Pence is a good player, and a right-handed bat that seemingly fits well into a lineup heavy on lefties, but his value was much higher to contending clubs. The M's would have been trading for two years of Pence plus the rest of this season, a virtual waste.
There's also the thought that Pence isn't the kind of impact hitter it would have taken to get Zduriencik to pull the trigger.
When the M's gave Zduriencik a new multi-year deal, the detractors wondered what the thought process was. The argument against Zduriencik deserving to stay starts and ends with the Figgins and Lueke situations and the last two seasons, which have each resulted in last-place finishes.
I ask, however, how long a general manager should have, in a vacuum, to turn around a club and make it a winner? And furthermore, how long should one have to turn around a club win the position the M's were in after '08?
Fact is, there was so little legitimate big league talent in the organization it was a total and true rebuilding situation. There was Felix Hernandez, an aging Ichiro Suzuki and one impact prospect -- Michael Pineda -- and that was it.
One analyst with which I have discussed Zduriencik named Alex Anthopoulos as a measuring stick. So I took that challenge. The Toronto Blue Jays won 86 games the year before Anthoupolos took over for J.P. Ricciardi. Since then they have won 75 and 85 games, and have 74 victories with 15 games to go this year.
There's little doubt Anthoupolos has done a good job setting up the Jays for some long-term success and that could start as early as next season.
Another doubter mentioned Jon Daniels in Texas. Daniels took over the Rangers prior to the 2006 season. The club had won 79 games in 2005, then went out and won 80 in '06, followed by 75 and 79 the next two years. That doesn't mean the club didn't make progress, however, because in 2009 Texas won 87 games and then 90 last year in their first ever World Series appearance.
Daniels is certainly a successful general manager, but it took until his fourth year for the Rangers to show any real progress in terms of wins and losses.
New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman inherited a club that went 96-66 and 92-70 the two years before he took over, and, of course, he gets to spend $200 million a year on payroll.
Theo Epstein took over in Boston for the 2003 season and the team has taken the next step into the elite, winning two titles and contending every year. Epstein is terrific, but he wasn't asked to take a 90-100 loss team with a bottom-run farm system and a couple of bad contracts and make it a winner inside of three seasons. Failing to renew Zduriencik's contract would essentially be firing him for not doing just that.
There are zero -- trust me -- zero examples of a general manager that took over a team in disarray that had no foundation and more than a little dead-weight money and developed a winning team in three years. It hasn't happened in the current climate of baseball, so why should Zduriencik be held to such standards?
The point is, progress has been made, pieces are in place and it's now time for the club to make the big splash in player acquisitions so it can take the big step in the win-loss column.
What and who might the Seattle Mariners chase this winter? "You never know what could present itself," Zduriencik said of the upcoming winter and the direction the team will look to improve. "We have to be prepared. I have great confidence in what we are doing."
If the M's land the necessary pieces to start winning some next season, nobody will ever question the club's decision to extend Zduriencik ever again. It's a big task, however, and if that doesn't happen and 2013 comes and goes without real and true contention at Safeco Field, the franchise will likely be looking for another leader and another start-over.
If it all happens, however, and the club becomes a winning franchise again, we could be talking about parades and statues years down the road. Zduriencik certainly believes it will come to fruition.
"We're going to turn this around, and it's going to be so much fun."
Zduriencik is staying the course, sticking with the original plan and clearly has confidence in the blueprint he and his staff drew up three years ago.
Thirty-four months ago I called Jack Zduriencik a 50 percent GM. It was my opinion that Zduriencik would merely get the M's halfway to where they want to be. Maybe a few winning seasons in the 80s, but not the 90-100 win seasons it generally takes to challenge for the World Series. That assessment was based on all the information I could gather on Zduriencik's evaluation skills, his leadership qualities and the experiences he's gone through in his baseball career.
Today, I feel there's a real chance the Seattle Mariners are in the right hands and that very good things are going to happen on 1st Avenue and Edgar Martinez Drive, and potentially very, very soon.
Part of that is because in my research, I realized that it does take 4-6 seasons for a GM to put his stamp on a club and turn it into what he wants it to be. The proof is in Arlington and Toronto, just for example.
The capper, however, resides in Milwaukee, where Zduriencik serves as scouting director for nine seasons.
The Brewers don't spend a lot of money. The past five years or so they have been a bit more aggressive on that front, thanks to owner Mark Attanasio, but they still aren't a top 10 club in that manner. Yet, they have won some of late.
When Doug Melvin took over as GM for the Brewers after the 2002 season, the club had just come off seasons of 73, 68 and 56 wins. In year three, the club won 81, in year five they managed 83. They made the postseason in year six -- 2008 -- with 90 victories and are running away with the National League Central division.
The 81-win club in 2005 had Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy as key members. Both Zduriencik draft picks. The 90-win club that went to the playoffs in '08 had Weeks, Hardy, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Manny Parra and Yovanni Gallardo -- all Zduriencik draft picks.
This year's club has all of the above sans Hardy, plus Shaun Marcum, acquired for Brett Lawrie, a Zduriencik draft pick, and Zack Greinke, acquired in return for Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress, all Zduriencik draft picks.
It wasn't the simple fact that the Brewers' roster consisted a lot of Zduriencik's draft picks -- all that does is suggest Zduriencik can draft. It was the fact that so much of the roster was either homegrown through the draft or other draft picks were dealt to acquire such impact pieces.
Greinke and Marcum would not be Brewers if not for the value created by the drafts, a very similar position in which the Mariners are right now. If the club were to add the offensive equivalents of Marcum and Greinke this winter, would you bet against the Seattle Mariners making some waves in 2012?
Me neither.
Jack Zduriencik has earned the right to continue the job he started by putting the club in such a position. If he fails, we'll all say goodbye in a year or two. If he succeeds, pandemonium ... right?
jack-zduriencik
Comments
The following 18 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: jd7979 on 09-13-2011 20:10:32 Great article |
| 2. By: krob4mvp on 09-13-2011 22:20:31 Good stuff Jason. I don't know what it is about Zduriencik and his staff but I am fascinated by them as much if not more than any other facet of our organization. I truly believe in his ability and overall plan. I can't wait for the day till we get consistent quality baseball back in the northwest. |
| 3. By: docsmith on 09-14-2011 04:05:39 Yep....agree. One of the things the recent improvements do is highlight just how bad things were before. Zduriencik and his team have made good if not remarkable progress to restoring the M's not only to a win now team but a team that can sustain winning. Something I am not sure we have ever had (closest would be late-90's, but that was mostly at the big league level). I am glad that he has a chance to continue what he has started. Sadly, I think we are a minimum of 2 yrs out from "contention," but a team being built well is much more watchable than what we have had recently. I can see this going somewhere. |
| 4. By: KingFelix on 09-14-2011 07:00:16 I think 2012 is a key year for Jack in his rebuilding phase. He must get a key MOTO hitter to take the pressure off of Ackley, Smoak and Carp so we can score runs on a consistent basis. |
| 5. By: Shawnuel on 09-14-2011 08:17:30 To be fair, I would label the "Figgins Fiasco" a huge strike against no one but Chone Figgins. You would be hard pressed to find many people who, at the time of the signing, thought it was a bad deal for the Mariners. Who really thought Chone would fall this far, this fast? But yeah......it ultimately will be assigned a failure on Jack's part, I suppose. |
| 6. By: marinerforever on 09-14-2011 08:23:00 With all the time that carp is getting in left field makes me believe that all signs pointing to the moto bat being a huge run at prince feilder Ichiro Guti Ackley Prince Carp Smoak Seager Olivo Ryan I believe that just by adding prince you become a really good offense |
| 7. By: docsmith on 09-14-2011 09:16:54 That looks like it could be a good line up. But I do wonder if the Carp, Seager, Smoak, Guti and Ackley are all going to perform well in 2012. I think Ackley is a good bet, but nothing is for sure. Between Carp, Seager, Smoak and Guti I suspect a couple of them do not reach their ceiling/expectations or sustain their better performances from this year. So I still see ~2 holes, on top of SS/C/DH. You can include Wells and Robinson in that statement. This is just probability associated with young players. What I really appreciate about this team is we are now talking about players that really could develop and be good regulars. That is a huge improvement over a few years ago. |
| 8. By: VikingArthur on 09-14-2011 10:53:43 I am NOT in favor of signing Fielder but I do understand the arguments for it. I suppose if you could get him with a 5 year contract I would be fine with it but he'll get 7 I'd guess which is too long for me. I'm not worried about Ryan, he is a pretty damn good defender and not an embarassment with the bat. He is a reasonable 9 hole hitter. As for Olivo... take a look around the league, good catchers are near non-existent and the teams that have them are in no hurry to let them go, you have to develop catchers and Jack is trying. The plan is coming along well and I am in full support of what is going on. |
| 9. By: aerichner on 09-14-2011 11:12:32 "As for Olivo... take a look around the league, good catchers are near non-existent " This is true, the difference is that they dont bat them 4th, 5th or 6th :/ The argument is that our offense sucks and he has power but seriously, all he is is a rally killer. Bat him 8th already. Ichiro Seager Ackley Smoak Carp Peņa (DH, instead of Kennedy!!) Robinson/Wells Olivo Ryan but thats for this year and they wont stick to one lineup because of all the young guys etc but that's my ideal lineup with what we have right now. |
| 10. By: aerichner on 09-14-2011 11:13:25 Jim Bowden (i know) threw out an interesting idea about dealing Smoak+ for Shin Soo Choo and then signing Prince. It's as interesting idea to say the least. The "+" could be one of the surplus OFs we have so they can replace Choo. We can debate contracts and whatnot but just look at it in terms of the players since I do think (and its been mentioned here) the Mariners will have money for the right moves, looks good. Not a championship team yet but getting close. Do that this offseason and then a year after replace Olivo and maybe get a better bat at 3B and turn Seager into a supersub. Ichiro Ackley Choo Prince (dh/1b) Carp (1b/dh) Guti Seager Olivo Ryan Here's the link tho it's for 'insiders' http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6949160/seattle-mariners-2011-fate-2012-prospects |
| 11. By: maqman on 09-14-2011 11:29:05 Excellent analysis Jason, well done. I share your opinion of Jack Z, perhaps I'm a bit more of a fan of his and hope he gets more than two more years. How odd it seems to be talking about how good our GM is after the Bavasi years. That is a change for certain. Count me against trying to get Fielder. No doubt he would help for a few years but the back end of that deal would cripple the club. |
| 12. By: Edman on 09-14-2011 12:07:43 Jim Bowden assumes that the Indians would trade Choo. A very bold assumption, and not likely. Not to mention that Prince Fielder might not want to be a DH. He may have thoughts that he's an adequate firstbaseman. And, he may expect to get most of his starts at first. Carp can play adequately in LF, so it's not a huge issue. But, Smoak is young, a switch-hitter and cost controlled. That's pretty valuable. They might deal Smoak, but I don't think it would be for Choo. First, he has to be available. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-14-2011 12:15:20 Choo will be available because of his contract situation and his agent being Scott Boras. It doesn't mean he absolutely WILL get traded, but he's going to be out there, no doubt about it. As for Fielder-Smoak-Carp ... I'll talk about that in depth soon enough. |
| 14. By: baseballfan on 09-14-2011 12:46:35 Good Article but again I'll be a grouch - AA became GM of the Jays after the 75 win 2009 season - 2011 is his 2nd season as GM not his 3rd. |
| 15. By: nater on 09-14-2011 13:56:23 Great article, Jason. Unfortunately so many people judge performance based on immediate results, not process. I'm just glad the Suits are sticking with JZ for a few more years so when the results begin to materialize he will be around to take credit. |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-14-2011 15:17:15 baseballfan... yes, my mistake on the years for AA. But the point stands, maybe even stronger. So if Toronto doesn't win next year should AA be fired? of course not. |
| 17. By: rth1986 on 09-14-2011 17:06:36 I definitely agree that Zduriencik deserves a chance to finish this out. For the most part, he's done a great job. In my opinion, a couple questionable aspects are: 1) His ability to assemble a major league offense. We can applaud the good process, but we can't overlook the results. The Mariners offense has been historically bad in 2 of the 3 years he's been in office. That should not happen, if under a great GM. I'm shocked that he hasn't been able to get at least close to a league-average offense since 2009. Again, his process has been good (I even approve the risk move of Bradley), but...wow. 2) His selection and handling of managers. I really liked Wakamatsu and realize there was likely more (negative things) going on behind the scenes than what was let on. However, I can't believe they fired him so quickly. Eric Wedge might be better in the clubhouse, but I hate his aggressive offensive mentality (which has led to historically bad strikeout numbers and encouraging a hacking approach at the plate) and lineups. I think Wedge can certainly be blamed for this historically bad offensive season. From his long leash on Carlos Peguero (and favoring him over Carp) to praising Olivo's approach (and batting him 4th), and finally batting Kennedy at DH in September. I certainly question his thought process and I do worry about the development of young guys like Ackley, Seager, Carp and Smoak if Wedge is going to push some of that aggressive mentality on them. Zduriencik seems to be a forward-thinking GM, and he needs a forward-thinking manager on the field. Wedge isn't one of them. It's too late to change the course now, but I have serious doubts as to whether Wedge is the right choice to lead this club to the playoffs. |
| 18. By: rth1986 on 09-14-2011 17:10:27 Oh, and if you're going to bat a veteran at DH, then why not see what Pena can do in 50+ more plate appearances. I'm surprised that the M's haven't given Pena more playing time. He may not have developed as much as his AAA numbers suggest, but he's still a sleeper candidate and a guy I wished the M's would've given regular playing time down the stretch. I can see them giving guys like Robinson, Wells, Carp, and Saunders extra time over him, but Kennedy??? |
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