Prospect Insider - Jack's First Signing

Jack's First Signing

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-03-2008

Jack Zduriencik's first big-league free agent signing is officially Russell Branyan. Branyan, 33 this month, hit .250/.342/.583 in a platoon type role for Milwaukee last season, and is a strong bet to at least hit for power versus right-handed pitching.

He's a below-average third baseman, a decent right fielder but merely an adequate arm as an outfielder. He's useless versus lefties (0-14 with 8 K's in 2008, .731 career OPS), doesn't run well, and strikes out a metric ton, particularly against lefty pitchers.

But if the Mariners use him properly, which means he shouldn't face southpaws at all, he is an asset, and a fun one to watch.

He swings for the downs, draws walks, fanned in under 25 percent of his plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers and will probably help the economy quite a bit by peppering the Hit It Here Cafe six or eight times during games and dozens of times during batting practice, forcing the club to continue to replace the plexiglass.

SportsRadio 950 KJR was the first to report that Branyan was due in town for a physical, which suggests that the two sides have agreed on a contract, with an announcement likely due shortly after.

It's not an impact player the club can build around, but it's a good platoon addition for a corner spot, or a combination of the corner positions and designated hitter.

jack\'s-first-signing

Comments
The following 70 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-03-2008 13:16:18
You know where I stand on this..

I'm a Branyan fan. The guy is a homerun hitting machine that seems to close his eyes and swing when facing a lefty. He still hits HRs as often off lefties as he does right handers.

I like it. The man is fun to watch and you never know when he will hit one a mile.

2. By: Snave on 12-03-2008 13:24:49
This looks like a decent signing, though I think it raises more questions than it answers.

I'll bet they use Branyan mostly as a DH against righties, and maybe in the field once in a while to spell someone. If he gets 300+ ABs next season, do you think he might hit 20+ HRs? I believe he could.

I wouldn't call this a major FA signing, but it suggests to me that Zduriencik is willing to sign at least this one stopgap-type veteran who isn't totally awful to fill some needs while kids develop.

If Raul Ibanez goes elsewhere as a FA and if Beltre gets dealt, there will be a huge power shortage for the Mariners. I would like to see both those players stay, but Raul looks like he'll be gone. Who knows if they'll keep Beltre or not.

Do you think the Branyan signing is being made in order to replace some of the power the team expects to miss in 2009? Are there any other veteran FAs out there who could come here short-term and supply some power for Seattle at low financial cost, while our prospects develop in the minors?

It is shaping up to be an interesting off-season, which will make for an interesting 2009!

3. By: Snave on 12-03-2008 13:25:09
This looks like a decent signing, though I think it raises more questions than it answers.

I'll bet they use Branyan mostly as a DH against righties, and maybe in the field once in a while to spell someone. If he gets 300+ ABs next season, do you think he might hit 20+ HRs? I believe he could.

I wouldn't call this a major FA signing, but it suggests to me that Zduriencik is willing to sign at least this one stopgap-type veteran who isn't totally awful to fill some needs while kids develop.

If Raul Ibanez goes elsewhere as a FA and if Beltre gets dealt, there will be a huge power shortage for the Mariners. I would like to see both those players stay, but Raul looks like he'll be gone. Who knows if they'll keep Beltre or not.

Do you think the Branyan signing is being made in order to replace some of the power the team expects to miss in 2009? Are there any other veteran FAs out there who could come here short-term and supply some power for Seattle at low financial cost, while our prospects develop in the minors?

It is shaping up to be an interesting off-season, which will make for an interesting 2009!

4. By: Corey on 12-03-2008 13:27:24
Minor signing. He'll be a decent bat hopefully. In the long run this signing is pretty meaningless. Someone has to take the ABs though until Jack unveils his real plan for the future of the M's.

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 13:29:58
Jack is never going to unveil his plan... please don't hold your breath on that.

It's clear that he's going to try and build the team around power pitching, defense and Ichiro, and has an affinity for high-OBP power hitters.

6. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-03-2008 13:30:38
As a stop-gap move in 2009, I like it. Until we can figure out who the first-sacker of the future's gonna be, it's the kind of low-risk, moderate-reward move we should make.

Branyan hits it like a mule when he hits it. It'll be fun to see.

7. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 13:31:16
Sorry to bust any Branyan fans, but....Sexson's little brother just signed up. How does this do anything for the Mariners who are trying to rebuild a sad team of the last four years? Does anyone remember Brad Wilkerson? Yeah I do, and he changed his name to Russel...and resigned the the Mariners. Bravasi is back.

8. By: Corey on 12-03-2008 13:36:26
By unveiling his plan, I'm not saying he'll say it publicly, nor will he even start on it this year.

But in the long run I think we all know this signing of this specific player isn't much, and is not a part of a building block. Philosophy, yes, but this specific player, no.

9. By: Slurve on 12-03-2008 13:39:12
[i]Sorry to bust any Branyan fans, but....Sexson's little brother just signed up. How does this do anything for the Mariners who are trying to rebuild a sad team of the last four years? Does anyone remember Brad Wilkerson? Yeah I do, and he changed his name to Russel...and resigned the the Mariners. Bravasi is back.[/i]

Um he is just someone who will provide a bridge to the minors he plays up in the Majors until we find someone who can actually man that posistion in the future and if we ever do we just dump him mid season. He is a stop gap not our 1B of the future.

10. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-03-2008 13:40:09
If you mean, in that little brother comment, that we signed a guy for probably 1 year at a couple million that bats LHed, has a career .500 SLG% and is coming off his best year as a professional in 2008 having an OPS of .925... Then I don't mind the comparison at all.

C'mon man, this is a low risk, decent reward type signing that is probably all of 1 year. How can you compare that to the 4 year, 50+ million dollar signing of Sexson? Thats just stupid.

If Branyan blows chunks to start '09... Cut his ass. No harm done.

...and that Bavasi comment is just a kick to the jewels. Totally uncalled for man.

11. By: Marlin Man on 12-03-2008 13:41:05
"Bravasi is back:???? thats sure jumping on the man pretty soon ain't it???????????

this guy will be a good role player, and he probably came pretty cheap also (soon to tell)

M.M.

12. By: Ghost of Steve Scheffler on 12-03-2008 13:41:38
Um, FatBat...unless Russell Branyan is signed to a 4 year, $50+ million deal, and expected to be a cornerstone of the offense, he's not Richie Sexson.

This isn't MLB 09...we can't make ridiculous trades or load the roster up. Signing guys like this, who you can get rid of, or use off the bench as a hired gun in late innings against closers, is not a bad idea, at the right price. He's a stopgap at most, power-hitting pinch hitter at the least. For a year, and a couple mil, that's a good signing. We still await the figures, I'm pretty sure, but so long as it's reasonable, you're overreacting.

13. By: Ghost of Steve Scheffler on 12-03-2008 13:42:00
Um, FatBat...unless Russell Branyan is signed to a 4 year, $50+ million deal, and expected to be a cornerstone of the offense, he's not Richie Sexson.

This isn't MLB 09...we can't make ridiculous trades or load the roster up. Signing guys like this, who you can get rid of, or use off the bench as a hired gun in late innings against closers, is not a bad idea, at the right price. He's a stopgap at most, power-hitting pinch hitter at the least. For a year, and a couple mil, that's a good signing. We still await the figures, I'm pretty sure, but so long as it's reasonable, you're overreacting.

14. By: Ghost of Steve Scheffler on 12-03-2008 13:42:43
Um, weird, I only pushed the button once. Sorry for the double post.

15. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 13:43:00
For me I hope Blake sign's with the Twins, and Z, can make a package deal with Beltre and JJ for James Loney. But I wouldnt mined Nelson. Just like proven young players. Delmon Young wouldnt be a bad pick-up either. We need to get tallent.

16. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 13:50:44
I will agree I jumped down Z...I might have twisted something. so Feel better. I was just saying (money aside) A big swing strike out guy isnt going to help in run scoring situations. I'm not talking contract wize. I'm saying Brad wilkerson was the same strong player but in tough spots just struck out. we need avg. with runners on. thats all.

17. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-03-2008 13:59:47
When Bavasi signed Wilkerson, he had sucked for quit some time. Bavasi was counting on a miracle resurgence. I think we can all say that we knew Wilkerson would suck from the get.

Branyan is a different animal because I doubt he is coming into start 162 games in RF. He will likely platoon off the bench against RHers and bounce around from the bench to 1B/3B and the OF.

Did I also mention Branyan had an awesome year in limited time last year? Something Wilkerson was far removed from when the Bumbler signed him.

18. By: Snave on 12-03-2008 14:01:02
I think low-risk signings like Branyan are indeed good for filling positions with warm bodies who aren't totally awful until prospects are ready to come up and do the job.

We will get a better idea of what Zduriencik's plan actually is once we see what kind of trades he makes, but maybe there will be some more free agent signings too.

Jason says "It's clear that he's going to try and build the team around power pitching, defense and Ichiro, and has an affinity for high-OBP power hitters."

With 278 HRs in 8 seasons, at least 100 walks in 6 of his 8 seasons and a career OBP of .381, Adam Dunn pretty well fits that description, despite the prodigious strikout numbers. His career OPS is .899. If Arizona didn't offer Big Donkey arbitration, what might that mean for how much it would cost to sign the guy? Would it be worth it for 2-3 years if it wasn't too pricey? Is he the kind of player who could be flippable at the trading deadline?

There might well be potentially-better players out there who are younger (Dunn is 29) and who could be had in trade for some of our veteran players. Do you think Seattle would have interest in Dunn?

19. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 14:12:17
I just like younger players getting there chance. We give at bats to Branyan and sign a coulpe or trade for outfielders then Wlad doesnt get at bats. we know what Branyan is. last six years he gets around 150 to 200 at bats. .230 avg. over six years. He can give you a good at bat against Righties but if we are rebuilding a team, don't we need to give Wlad more at bats? Like the Royals who play there young players no matter what All Season, then see at the end of the season what they got. Thats how you know weather a player is worth keeping. I would just prefer to use prospects rather than sign a guy who has no surprises. But I could be wrong,You guys have good points.

20. By: mrmitra on 12-03-2008 14:18:50
I would have perfered Nelson over Branyan but this is by no means a bad deal. At worst he is a high strikeout righty masher. As long as he is used correctly and only faces righties I'm happy with this. But if he is in the starting line up going against a lefty then I'm pissed.

21. By: Jay Yencich on 12-03-2008 14:32:12
It's clear that he's going to try and build the team around power pitching, defense and Ichiro, and has an affinity for high-OBP power hitters.

Considering some of Zduriencik's old draft picks, I had been a bit concerned that he would at times punt defense in favor of getting that kind of high-OBP power hitter. Do you believe then that Zduriencik will be expected to adjust those tendencies to line up with the defensive realities of Safeco?

22. By: slamcactus on 12-03-2008 14:34:56
Very good move. Best-case scenario (not likely, but within the realm of possibility): 500 ABs, 25 or so HRs, and enough RBI to qualify for type-B compensation. Worst-case scenario: shows up to ST out of shape with a slow bat, spends a couple of unproductive months on the bench, and we cut him. No big deal.

23. By: Snave on 12-03-2008 14:47:54
Good points, FatBat. I believe you are right that if the Mariners want to see what young guys can do in the majors, they ought not to be taking ABs away from them.

Re. the Royals, one might point out that while they have taken that approach in recent years, it hasn't helped them much when it comes to moving up in their division. Maybe the Royals haven't had enough decent veteran players in their mix to help get them over the hump, or maybe their prospects just haven't been all that great? I don't know, but not being able to have very many good veteran players on their ballclub may well have something to do with their payroll limitations. It seems like payroll limitations aren't something the M's really face in most cases.

Thus I think that if the Mariners hire the right veteran players or the right kind of veterans to go with the youngsters and/or to fill in gaps while the youngsters develop, it would be o.k. to hire a few.

I agree with you about guys like Balentien. I'd like to see them give him a whole year to see what he can really do. It might be painful to watch, but it might also be quite rewarding depending on how he does.

24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 14:51:22
If Ichiro plays an outfield spot and Ibanez is gone, that leaves two open outfield spots, an open 1B spot and an open DH spot. How does Wlad not get his at-bats because Branyan is under contract now?

Make sense, people, come on. If Wlad doesn't get his at-bats, it'll be because the player development department and the pro scouts - and Jack - don't think he deserves them, not because a 33-year-old platoon player took them away.

25. By: jonbbt on 12-03-2008 14:56:42
It's clear that he's going to try and build the team around power pitching, defense and Ichiro, and has an affinity for high-OBP power hitters.

Speaking of which, Seattle is supposedly in on Adam Dunn, according to Ken Rosenthal sources.

26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 15:16:32
And supposedly they are in on Kerry Wood, Pat Burrell, Ben Sheets and Bobby Abreu, too...

Means little at this point, though it's worth noting that none of those players, nor Dunn, were offered arbitration and will not cost the M's a second-round pick.

27. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 15:23:18
Branyan can't play center. So JAC, a player will have to be added (we won't be going with Reed, Haha) So that leaves one outfield spot not two as you stated. second Clement will be DH, Kenj. isnt getting moved so that dosent leave the DH spot as you stated. and Branyan isnt playing full time at first (can't hit lefties) so another player will be added or moved over. then you add that Big Z hasnt even started to look at full time startes yet. So my comment stands. when all the trades are done and we make are signing Wlad or another prospect WILL loose at bats. Thats all I was saying. I like Dunn I like Burrel luts say we get one, how many big time Homer guy's can you put on a team. I seam to remember Tampa signing Greg Vaughn, Castillo and Canseco. OUCH!!! If you put one on a team make sure he's good. not a platooner taking at bats from younger guy's IE: TUG, Luis, Wlad so on. But I think I'm beating a dog here and must move on to better topics. haha. I would like to see a nice trade come off this winter meeting, and land us a corner stone player.

28. By: shemberry on 12-03-2008 15:34:29
If the M's are interested in Wood, that would seem to signal that they are at least open to the idea of dealing Putz. Wood has stated that he wants to close, and if he could be convinced not to do so, you would think it would be for a contender.

29. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 15:34:42
Bobby Abreu would look nice in the number 3 hole! Wood would alow us to move JJ in a Beltre deal. Jason do you Think that a Beltre plus JJ could land you Loney and a player to be named later?

30. By: Edman on 12-03-2008 15:49:35
Lets be clear about something, FatBat. It's not up the the Mariners to give Wlad and opportunity to succeed. It's up to Wlad to prove he has the ability to succeed. If you want to give Wlad at bats, then put him in the minors, if you don't think he's capable of becoming a major league hitter. But, don't waste at bats on someone who hasn't shown promise, yet. He's not an Adam Jones type of player. His skill set is fringe. I like him, but I'm not about wasting a year on someone who can't turn the corner.

31. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 16:02:21
No disrespect Edman. But you gave up on Wlad pretty quick. I think he proved he can hit in the minor leagues. So it is up to the Marniners to get him at bats, then he needs to prove he should stay there. You got that part right at least. But by your standerds you would say Clement is doesnt deserve at bats because of a poor poor platooning? And my point was to use Wlad as the fourth outfielder back up DH and pintch hitter. Where they are now (it looks like) giving it to Branyan. Need proof of giving someone a chance Edman I raise you one Raul Ibanez. Sweet Lou never gave him the chance he went to the Royals got his chance and look now at his Free agency? Nice huh. Players are like a box of chocolates...you never know what your going to get. Again no disrespect just a different view is all I got.

32. By: jonbbt on 12-03-2008 16:14:06
do you Think that a Beltre plus JJ could land you Loney and a player to be named later?

Why would the Dodgers want Putz?

33. By: jonbbt on 12-03-2008 16:18:32
And supposedly they are in on Kerry Wood, Pat Burrell, Ben Sheets and Bobby Abreu, too...

Means little at this point, though it's worth noting that none of those players, nor Dunn, were offered arbitration and will not cost the M's a second-round pick.

Rumors are just rumors, that I understand. But it's surprising to see Zduriencik getting "in on" bigger named free agents than originally expected. Makes the offseason a little more exciting.

Abreu would be a nice fit at DH as a stopgap. Dunn could be good if the market for him remains flat, but it will pick up now that he won't cost draft picks. I wouldn't want Burrell at all and Wood seems unnecessary.

34. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 16:20:18
Why would they want Putz? Power bull pen? Unsure about Saito's health? Not sure why. just a thought. But you could use JJ to the Mets net a player the Dodgers want and add that to Beltre for the deal. OK bounce some more thoughts around. What about a package to the Astro's for Miguel T. or Carlos L.? any idea what it would take? Miguel I think wouldnt cost much more that Yuni and a prospect seeing as they want to unload some payroll to sign a picture. I don't know your thoughts?

35. By: Trent on 12-03-2008 16:39:43
Loney is ridiculously overrated. Tejada and Lee are overpaid dinosaurs. Think younger.

36. By: DAMellen on 12-03-2008 16:50:00
I like this move. We got a reasonably good player for practically nothing. What's the worst case scenario? He has the worst season he's ever had and we're out $1.5 million? That's not exactly tragic. This is a smart, smart move. I was nervous to see what Big Z would do with his first roster move, but after seeing this, I can't wait for his next one. I'm predicting Adrian Beltre for Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Johnny Cueto. Make it happen, Jack.

37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 17:03:11
LAD is certainly unsure about Saito, as they are inquiring about Kerry Wood.

Loney is no stud, but he's a pretty solid player, defends his position and makes peanuts.

re: Jonbbt

Getting in on them is one thing, being serious about it is another.

38. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 17:17:43
If Carlos Lee is a Dinosaur...He's a T-Rex!! Did you see his numbers over 4 months? 100 RBI's Gents. As for Loney 90 RBI's is nice. He is young Defends well and could be part of the bigger picture over the next 3 to 4 years. Did I mention he is a lefty? If you want bigger I say Prince Fielder. young, could hit 35 hr. in any ball park in the US. and is under contract for the next two years. don't work out flip him. I think after loosing Raul we need a good solid middle of the order bat and Beltre JJ and or any combo there off should be used to net someone who could hit 3 or 4.

39. By: FatBat on 12-03-2008 17:23:39
I like Andre Either and Kemp but no way Dodgers let those Franchise player's go. Alex Rios is a idea but Jay's will ask alot. His over all numberts, doubles trip's hr. and stolen bases are excellent. Don't want Dye from the white sox and the asking price for Atkins has to be steep!!

40. By: Snave on 12-03-2008 17:25:09
If the Mariners are thinking about trading Putz to the Mets...

Jason, in talking about sending Putz to the Mets (and if the Mariners decide to trade Beltre for prospects) and if the Mets are looking for relievers, would it make sense for Seattle to send J.J. Putz to the Mets for 3B Daniel Murphy?

He's 23, bats left-handed. He hit well in the minors last year and also in his 131 ABs with the Mets (.313/.397/.473/.871). It seems he would be pretty much blocked in NY by David Wright. How does Murphy project, and what is your opinion of him as a prospect? Could he handle 3B for Seattle next year and for some time after next year?

41. By: malcontent1 on 12-03-2008 18:17:41
Who is available to replace Beltre should the Mariners trade him? Blake DeWitt had a nearly equal year to him defensively, according to PMR, and his offensive numbers looked similar to Beltre'23-year-old season. Would the Dodgers make him available in a Beltre deal and is he capable of average offensive production for a 3rd baseman? Or is Matt Tuiasosopo going to be able to stick defensively?

42. By: slamcactus on 12-03-2008 18:50:40
38: Sweet, we're judging players' contribution solely by RBI again?

Hey everybody, did you know Ryan Garko's better than Joe Mauer, and Jose Guillen is better than Nick Markakis? Melvin Mora's only slightly better than Alex Rodriguez, but Mike Jacobs totally blows Andre Ethier out of the water.

43. By: Blowgun7 on 12-03-2008 19:10:51
Mets wont trade Murphy for JJ, they really love him and expect him to play 1B for them this upcoming season

44. By: jonbbt on 12-03-2008 19:20:34
Getting in on them is one thing, being serious about it is another.

I'm with ya...

45. By: stickball on 12-03-2008 19:58:28
The mets have 12 million reasons to play Delgado at first base, not Murphy.

46. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 20:17:11
The Mets have tinkered with the idea of Murphy at second base, not first. But I have talked to a member of the Mets org this winter and it sounds like unless they fall into better options, they'll use Murphy, Church, Tatis and Beltran in their outfield, with Church, Murphy and Tatis potential platooning in the two corners.

47. By: Blowgun7 on 12-03-2008 20:31:10
Wow my bad, talk about a mental lapse

The talk of Murphy at 1B was when there was talk here in NY about getting rid of Delgado following the collapse by the Mets for the second straight yr

Anyway, my initial point was that they like Murphy

48. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 20:53:55
They like Murphy enough to not go gonzo for Burrell, Dunn or even Ibanez.

49. By: StandinPat on 12-03-2008 20:54:50
#27
The idea of Balentein losing precise at-bats because of Branyan signing is ridiculous. Like Jason stated, its one positon, and the M's have many a hole to fill. He'll very likely Platoon with Morse, which means Morse takes ab's away from Branyan, not Balentein.

Also, as Jason stated there are two holes in the outfield, and until they acquire a CF or flat out state that there is no way Ichiro is leaving RF, then that stays at two.

Clement full-time DH with Johjima full-time catching? Get real. Clement needs to catch, and M's need him to become decent defensively. His bat would be solid at DH, but a monster at C. Sure Clement will get some AB's at DH, but he will be catching plenty this year, and Kenji's bat dissappearing out of his hands doesnt bode well for him DH'ing a ton.

Lastly, Wlad got about 450 ab's a year in the Minors, and getting a only 400 or so next year isnt gonna limit his development in the slightest. We could sign two outfielders, and still get him plenty of ab's as a platoon partner and part time DH.

Lastly, who are these other young players we should be giving ab's too? Tui, Valbuena and Saunders can all use more time in AAA. Branyan at 1yr, and I think I heard 1.5mil is freaking awesome and should be met by all with open arms. It's the complete antithesis of a Bavasi move and will give the M's production that far surpasses the cost of his contract.

50. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 20:59:33
Just for the record, I was told Branyan will make $1.4 million in 2009 guaranteed, with PA incentives that can get him to $1.9 million.

51. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-03-2008 21:05:57
I read its a 250k/200 PA incentive plus 500k in performance incentives?

So he might crest 2 million this year is he does well. Low risk my friends. Great sign.

52. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 21:26:43
It's 500k in performance incentives that are BASED on PAs, starting with 250k for 200 PAs... not PLUS.

But under 2 mil, not much lost there, even if he gets hurt and doesn't play a single game.

53. By: Adam T on 12-03-2008 22:28:21
Can't complain too much with this signing. I've always liked Branyan, on some level.

Jason - is that rumored trade any closer to fruition?

54. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2008 22:33:25
Not to my knowledge.

55. By: Blowgun7 on 12-03-2008 22:40:08
I dont know what to make of this Branyan move..

It's so irrelevant towards the actual onfield future of the M's, i wonder if I should even care.. Branyan wont be here when we get good, so why am I please with this move..

I suppose it's more about Zduriencik and the idea that maybe he "gets it"

1)He didnt give out a stupid long term deal
2)He found a lefty stick for Safeco
3)He found a guy with big power
4)He found a guy who values a base on balls

So I suppose it's not really about Branyan, it's about Jack and for this move regardless of whether Branyan does anything on the field worth a darn, shows that he's at least got the right idea

56. By: Pumpkin on 12-03-2008 23:06:39
Great point blowgun I totally agree with you. I am more impressed with the fact that our new GM seems to understand that our main goal the next couple of years is not winning. He understands that that in that time frame our main goal is building a strong team from our own farm system, and until those players start arriving we need stop gap players that cost us very little but aren't so horrendous that it pisses the fans off.

The only thing I would like to see about his next signing that might be different is a guy with a lot higher risk but also higher reward potential. That is one of the great things about being a club that is very likely not going to be in competition next year. We can afford to take a risk on players. Players with high risk involved usually don't sign long contracts, perfect for what we are looking for. And if that risk does come in to play and that player does flub out, so what if we have to watch Jeremy reed playing as a regular in the outfield or Dickey starting, it is not like it is going to keep winning anything we would have. But if that High reward comes into play, and the player does do well, we can then either flip them at the trade deadline, or take the picks at the end of the season. I think Baldelli is a pretty good example of this type of player, Sheets also, but if we sign him we would lose a draft pick so i am not to big on that one.

57. By: marinerseric on 12-04-2008 04:03:33
While this move may be good, what are the chances we see Bedard not even tendered? He is out half the year if I recall correctly due to injuries?

58. By: jonbbt on 12-04-2008 09:57:26
^Last I remember he was doing well and was supposed to be ready at some point during Spring Training. Who knows for sure though...

59. By: Edman on 12-04-2008 11:25:11
Use some common sense. They traded too much to get Bedard. He has too much high return potential. His surgery went well. And, from initial reports, he's ahead of schedule as far as recovery goes.

M's aren't non-tendering Bedard. They have more to gain, than lose. Bedard isn't just a pitcher. If he's right, he's up there with Johan Santana. You don't let go of that because you're PO'd at his season this year. He was just one of many bad stories this year.

60. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-04-2008 11:51:56
Bedard is expected to be ready for spring training, though the club wouldn't surprised if he was a little slow out of the gate and was unable to make his first start or two, mostly for precautionary reasons.

But Bedard has a ton to pitch for this year.

61. By: bakomariner on 12-04-2008 13:46:14
Bedard will be pitching to get a CC type contract and to get the hell out of town...he's going to be awesome if healthy...

Hopefully, if he is all good to go, we will get something back from the worst trade ever...either two picks if he leaves via FA or trading him at the deadline...

I doubt we can get back the same type of package, but hopefully Z can at least put a nice bandage on Bavasi's biggest blunder of them all...

62. By: jonbbt on 12-04-2008 17:50:48
^CC type contract? CC is only getting a CC type contract because he is 1.) incredible. 2.) insanely durable.

Bedard shows flashes of brilliance, but he is no CC. I think he has to have a Cy Young type season just to get 2-3 years next offseason. If (when?) he gets hurt again, forget it.

63. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-04-2008 17:58:07
I'm not sure he has to have a Cy type season, jon, he just has to pitch well and often.

Thirty starts and solid numbers, not necessarily great, but No.2 type stuff over around 190-200 innings nets Bedard just under what AJ Burnett is probably going to get this winter.

64. By: jonbbt on 12-04-2008 19:25:45
I'll take your word for it, but that surprises me. Bedard seems like a huge risk; bigger than other supposed injury risk pitchers.. but I could just be bitter about the trade still.

What kind of contract do you think Ben Sheets can get given his latest injury?

65. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-04-2008 20:29:48
But if he's just come off a 30-start, 190+ inning season, things have changed, and that's the scenario I painted above.

He doesn't need to pitch any better than he did in 2007 to get three years or more at 12+ mil per.

Sheets is in trouble, I don't see any club giving him much guaranteed dough, but the difference is, Sheets is coming off a season in which he missed significant time, and he has an even worse injury history than Bedard.

If Bedard makes 14-18 starts in 2009, but misses significant time to end the year, it doesn't matter how well he pitched, he's not going to get a 3-4 year offer for market value from anyone.

66. By: 01v-dubs on 12-05-2008 01:16:12
Jason that story that was just up and then went away about possible contention this year looked very interesting. Can't wait to read it!

67. By: hawks02 on 12-05-2008 01:35:57
A little off topic, but does anyone know where in Vegas the winter meetings will be held? I will be in Vegas through Tues and am curious enough to possibly walk through the lobby of the hotel the meetings are at.

68. By: hmbaseball7 on 12-05-2008 05:50:45
They are going to be at the Bellagio Hotel.

69. By: hmbaseball7 on 12-05-2008 06:12:48
And overall I'm very pleased about the Branyon signing. He has incredible power. He hit 3 of the 4 longest homeruns in Miller Park history. He has a career .812 OPS. Hopefully if it works out he will be a great role player or even a decent everyday player who will hit 20+ HR. And if he gets hurt, there won't be any problems because of his contract.

70. By: jgstecker on 12-05-2008 08:25:06
Regarding performance expectations and contract years:

In this year's elias rankings, Bedard was ranked dead last in the Type A category. Elias looks at the las three years, so that was based on 2006-08. Next year it will be based on 2007-09, which means in order for him to maintain his Type A status, he'll need to replicate his 2006 season this year (in which he was fairly durable and effective). If he has any hiccups along the way in 2009, the M's should be more eager to trade him, since he'll be looking at Type B status and only worth one draft pick in the offseason.

The same is also true for Beltre. Elias has him dead last in Type A category this year, which also means he needs to duplicate or better his 2006 season to remain worth holding onto past the trading deadline next season. Shouldn't be too hard for him to do though.

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