| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-03-2012 |
As announced by the Seattle Mariners Friday evening, Hisashi Iwakuma has re-upped with the club for two years and a club option for a third. This could keep the right-hander in Seattle through the 2015 season when he will be 34 years of age.
Reports, via Twitter, from Jon Heyman at CBSSports.com are that the deal is worth $14 million guaranteed -- $6.5 million in '13 and '14 with a $1 million buyout of the $7 million option for '15. This is a very solid deal for a could-have-been free agent that projected out as a nearly 2-WAR starting pitcher over the course of a full season starting.
Sure, there are questions, still, about Iwakuma's durability over the long haul of a major-league season -- he has a history of shoulder problems. But he has worked hard with the M's staff, who deserve mucho credit for their program, to strengthen the joint. And while there is some risk here as with all pitchers, if the worst-case scenario hits --Iwakuma gets hurt or ends up a long reliever -- the lost investment is far from crippling, even to a club that does not figure to top the $100 million mark for payroll in the next two years.
The impact of Iwakuma's return, however, is far more intriguing. With two starting pitcher's under contract in Felix Hernandez and Iwakuma, Jason Vargas' days in Seattle may be numbered.
The southpaw is arbitration eligible for the third time this winter and after earning just under $5 million in 2012, could be in line for $8 million or more for 2013. While he could prove to be worth it, the M's can probably spend that money more wisely -- on upgrading the offense, no less.
I advocated over the summer that Vargas might be worth re-signing to a three-year deal. With Iwakuma in the fold -- for cheaper than Vargas would be -- and the dimensions being abbreviated at Safeco for 2013, Vargas simply isn't necessary, anymore.
The M's rotation without Vargas, if they do not add a starting pitcher between now and spring training, might be an arm short. As a result, trading Vargas doesn't mean they won't acquire a different starting pitcher via free agency or trade. It's likely that the club will at least bring in one veteran, but they should be able to get similar value as Vargas for a better price.
Names such as Shaun Marcum, Carlos Villanueva, Jeremy Guthrie, Kyle Lohse or even Anibal Sanchez could be on the radar of the M's, all of whom would be better fits than Vargas and perhaps better values, too.
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Comments
The following 26 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-03-2012 01:07:34 I'd love to see us nail down Marcum or even Lohse and Sanchez, but so would a lot of other clubs too. There's supposedly a lot of money to spend this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to find a Kevin Millwood type situation or reclamation project like Liriano. I know a lot depends as to whether or not we acquire a said pitcher(s), but do you see the M's banking on using Blake Beavan as #5 spot in the rotation next year Jason? I can easily see Blake bridging the gap and holding down a spot if Paxton, Hultzen, or Maurer aren't quite ready yet. He's cheap and has a ton of experience. Or do you think he'd be more effective out of the pen? |
| 2. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-03-2012 01:08:51 Scratch out the word ton, and replace it with a "season's worth." Lol |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2012 01:09:48 Beavan is possible, but if I'm Jack Zduriencik I'd feel much better if Erasmo Ramirez was the No. 5 starter -- with four better options ahead of him in the rotation -- while the prospects polish off their games in Tacoma for a few months. |
| 4. By: diderot on 11-03-2012 01:12:46 Sign Villanueva now. Then worry about Vargas. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2012 01:21:42 Villanueva has yet to earn the right to be called a league-average starter despite having enough raw stuff to get through the lineup 2-3 times. He's simply not good enough -- or reliable enough as a starter -- to "replace' Vargas. If the club were to acquire a legit No. 3 or better, Villanueva would fit nicely as a back-end option to pair with Erasmo Ramirez. It's also likely Villanueva is going to get more money than he's worth. The cost matters, as with all acquisitions. If the M's are going to overpay for a starter, just get a really good one, not a No. 4 or 5 who may belong in the bullpen. |
| 6. By: Rudolf on 11-03-2012 01:22:27 A rotation of Felix, Iwakuma, A. Sanchez, Ramirez, and ??? would be pretty tight! Jason, there are a couple dozen pitchers in the M's system, mostly bullpen guys in the lower levels, that had decent years in 2012 that I know practically nothing about. Would it be too much to ask to get a post about these kind of guys? Here's some names: Shore, Landazuri, Shackleford, Brazis, Kittredge, Pries, Elias, Shellhorn, Wood, Leone, Plotz, Unsworth, Medina. A few of them get mentioned from time to time, but others not at all. Mostly fodder, I'm sure. |
| 7. By: Shawnuel on 11-03-2012 01:47:47 Is Scott Baker just too much of an injury risk to take a chance on? Good skills when he is healthy. He'd likely take a team-friendly contract to build up some value. Still just 29 or 30.Seems he could be a risk worth taking. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2012 01:49:09 Rudolf, I promise a report on this group around the time I finish up the inaugural Prospect Insider 2013 Preview Handbook and Prospect Guide. Will say that Landazuri and Elias have a chance to remain in the rotation and a few of the names you mentioned will be in the handbook. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2012 02:25:33 Shawnuel, I say no, because of what you noted on the potential low cost, at least in guaranteed dollars. |
| 10. By: Marlin Man on 11-03-2012 09:27:33 seriously, I think Paxton has a great chance at breaking camp as the #5 starter, Erasmo would be #4 M.M. |
| 11. By: zrininger on 11-03-2012 09:59:18 Jason, what do you think of Roberto Hernandez? Would he be worth looking at as announce back candidate? |
| 12. By: Edman on 11-03-2012 10:10:45 Some of the names that pop up here, are frightening. There's still the "bargin" mentality. Seattle doesn't need to find a bargin. They have as good, or better options within their own system, rather than to waste resources looking for the next "great bargin". A few folks on the USSM are still clamoring for Russ Francis. Seattle can do better than Villanueva, Roberto Hernandez and Russ Francis. Those are moves made when you have nothing else in your system. I'd rather spend a few more million on Vargas, than reach for a project. |
| 13. By: diderot on 11-03-2012 10:20:12 Here's my counter-argument on Villanueva: --His biggest downside is proving he can throw anywhere as many innings as Vargas has, and that's important. --I have no way of knowing how much he'd cost, or whether that cost would be too high for the Mariners. However, his numbers last year were significantly better than Vargas' (xFIP 4.09 vs. 4.45, and SIERA 3.72 vs. 4.39). And his traditional stats were skewed by a ridiculous 56% flyball rate in September, and an equally silly 21.3% HR/FB. Those are home run derby stats for a guy who was outstanding for the four preceding months. Maybe he hit the wall...maybe there was something wrong with his arm...or maybe he was just unlucky...but in any case, I'd say last year he was a better pitcher than Vargas. I don't care if you want to call him a #5 or a #3, I would like to see him in an M's uniform, regardless of what they do with Vargas. And I think it would be safe to say he'll cost less than a Haren or a Lohse, who bring their own equal or larger questions. |
| 14. By: jgstecker on 11-03-2012 10:21:41 Cross Lohse off the list. I'm not coughing up the #12 overall pick to overpay him. I'm not sure the return on Vargas is going to be enough to make swapping him out worthwhile. Even with Vargas and Iwakuma, we still need another innings eater-type SP to keep a spot warm for Hultzen. Iwakuma's new deal lines him up as a great placeholder for Walker. And in ideal world Vargas transitions to Paxton seamlessly. |
| 15. By: diderot on 11-03-2012 10:24:56 Programming reminder: Franklin, Zunino (and maybe Paxton?) in action tonight at 5p on the MLB network...AFL all star game. |
| 16. By: dangayle on 11-03-2012 11:26:48 I for one am sick of the "he's finally gotten kinda good, let's trade him" mentality that has plagued Seattle over recent years. Let's show some loyalty, rather than try to scrape value off of the bottom of the barrel by trading or "upgrading" a person who can give us 200+ quality innings. Sure, Iwakuma is a good deal. But when/if he gets injured, we'll steady, reliable hands in the rotation. Vargas isn't many things, but he is durable and reliable. |
| 17. By: Shawnuel on 11-03-2012 11:33:09 I'm for letting Vargas go to arbitration. Let him get his money, have him in your #2 spot for one more season. Theoretically, guys like Paxton, Hultzen and Mauer should all be ready for rotation spots in 2014. Personally, the fences being moved in, in light of Vargas' propensity for giving up the longball, doesn't give me great confidence that he'll be worth a long term contract. |
| 18. By: maqman on 11-03-2012 11:59:53 I've flip-flopped on Vargas but my current view is they should sign him, he's projected to get $7.4MM by MLBTR's arbitration expert. Until one of the Big 3 proves they are ready for The Show the team would just have to go out and sign another free agent arm. If that happens before the trade deadline they can flip Vargas for some more prospects or a bat - not a big one. They should wait until the off-season is winding down and get a Millwood clone as back of the rotation insurance. They should spend cash on bats, as I'm sure most agree. Hamilton is the best bat available, the only real MOTO thunderstick and the biggest gamble. They can trade for a medium sized bat or two but not a MOTO. |
| 19. By: JonathanAicardi on 11-03-2012 13:42:10 One step at a time and this was a pretty good step. Kudos to the team getting it done prior to today, especially since none of the big three look ready to break camp on the 25. This takes a good amount of pressure off of pushing the youngsters too quickly. With Dan Haren's option declined and coming off a poor year, what do you all think of possibility of enticing him to a one-year deal for the opportunity to show he's still got it? Fence changes aside, he seems like the type of pitcher who could benefit playing in Seattle for a year while providing us an effective stop-gap. |
| 20. By: rufus455 on 11-03-2012 13:46:36 I just cant get excited about spending 14 million dollars on a pitcher when we have the most anemic offense in the entire league. I think they over paid for him. Although he could turn out to be OK. We no longer have the 18 million we paid ichiro for all those years. we need to spend big on a big bat, Ackley, Smoak ,and ryan had horrible years. I will give Ackley a pass because he is so young and had a bad heel. But Smoak is probably a bust, Ryan cant hit on a good day. If this team starts next year with this same offense look for the attendance to go to 10,000 a game maybe. we need to get creative and get a good veteran bat or we are just headed for another 70 win season and last place finish. |
| 21. By: jgthompson21 on 11-03-2012 14:29:58 @20 Iwakuma didn't cost $14 mil. He cost $6.5 mil - for 2 years. Not the same thing. That is great value for a good pitcher. |
| 22. By: Rudolf on 11-03-2012 15:08:53 Post #20 feels very Seattle Post-Intelligencer. In response, five starting pitchers are basically a requirement in major league baseball, and before Iwakuma signed we had three. Now brace yourself, rufus455, because we still need another one, unless you like Beaven and Noesi. I think bringing in Dan Haren on a one-year deal is a fine idea if he's healthy. I also like spending $$ on a legit #3 like Sanchez, McCarthy, or Marcum. We can still sign an OF bat, trade for another player, and keep the budget around $85 million. If things get expensive kick Vargas to the curb. But the bottom line is we need starting pitching. The big 4 are not ready to be counted on for 200 innings. When they are we can trade the surplus or enjoy the depth. |
| 23. By: diderot on 11-03-2012 17:35:23 Have to agree with Rudolf here. Of course we need more hitting, but free agency is unlikely to solve our problems. Our simultaneous goal should be to build the strongest combined 10 starters in baseball between the majors and Triple A...and then when that's demonstrated, to use those chips to get the bats we need via trades. Thus, Iwakuma + another free agent starter is a good idea this winter. |
| 24. By: Shawnuel on 11-03-2012 20:08:29 #22. Close, Rudolf. Seattle Times. Dude was on a comments thread there earlier today spouting the same stuff. Haren would be fine at a reduced cost. Still like the idea of Scott Baker. |
| 25. By: Timberwolf on 11-04-2012 09:44:38 Context is everything. I'm very willing to deal Vargas for some offensive help in the right deal, but I don't want to see the team put him on "blue light special". |
| 26. By: rufus455 on 11-04-2012 15:30:50 22 and 20 I am not against adding pitching, just think we paid too much for iwakuma. I like the perez signing and Vargas obviously doesnt fit in there plans. WE NEED BATS, With no budget announced its hard to figure if we have any money for a bat. And the Way Z has handeled trades(fister,Morrow) i woudnt expect much for Vargas. Peace |
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