| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-12-2008 |
Trading No. 51 is not Taboo in the world of Seattle Mariners baseball. They do not have a Japanese owner, and are not prohibited from trading either of their Japanese players.
Yeah, I know, even though Hiroshi Yamauchi sold his stakes of the team to Nintendo of America, he retained his position and powers in the organization, fully and 100 percent.
And yes, Kenji Johjima's three-year extension last spring came directly from Yamauchi and his personal representatives.
So?
If trading Ichiro, or Johjima, is beneficial to the Seattle Mariners organization, it will be something the ballclub looks into seriously.
Yamauchi, according to Howard Lincoln, who still reports directly to the Japanese billionaire, has never once requested, insisted, ordered or demanded that any player on the team be treated any differently than any of the others, regardless of what country from which he resides.
Having said that, it's difficult to see how dealing away Ichiro is good for the M's... but not impossible.
Ichiro is a good player, still, even at 35. He's good. I've contended for the past few years that he is not, however, a superstar, and I think you can argue that he's not even an all-star caliber player at this stage, at least if 2008 is any indication.
One thing is very clear to me: Ichiro is worth more to the Mariners off the field than he is on it. The ticket sales, worldwide media coverage, merchandise sales, and other marketing fields that Ichiro's presence contributes greatly to is extremely valuable to the ownership.
None of that is specifically valuable to the baseball team, but it lines the pockets of all the suits, and that's something very difficult for them to voluntarily part with.
Nevertheless, trading Ichiro the baseball player is what we're here to talk about.
Ichiro, CF
Age: 35
BRAA: +20 P/M: +12 OOZ: 38
Ichiro and SS Yuniesky Betancourt or 2B Jose Lopez to San Francisco Giants for RHP Tim Alderson or LHP Madison Bumgarner, 2B Nick Noonan and LHP Jonathan Sanchez
My original ideas skipped over the Giants, but if you read the scouts' thoughts on who fit and what not, San Francisco is squeezed in here. Up until now it seems the Giants are fine with a bit of a rebuild themselves, but in that division they are so close to having a roster that can win 85 or more games that a move or two puts them right there with what the Dodgers might bring to the table in April.
This also pus Beltre in play for the Giants, even moreso than a player like Ichiro. But the Giants don't have what is most ideal for the Mariners to seek, which is up the middle talent, power hitting and defensive minded players, so adding an Alderson or Bumgarner and Noonan is a great start to a package for either Ichiro or Beltre.
Alderson, 6-7 and 220 pounds, is a future No. 2 with pretty safe upside, while Bumgarner, a 2007 first-rounder, has ace stuff, sitting in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball.
Noonan, a shortstop by trade, has plenty of range at second base and has enough bat speed, discipline and pitch recognition at age 19 to safely project him as a regular in the big leagues.
He's a lefty stick who projects as a good defender with average or better power and above-average speed. He's been compared to Chase Utley in the past, but it's unlikely he develops the same power as Utley.
In a deal for Beltre, it might be asking too much to get Alderson or Bumgarner with Sanchez and Noonan all in the same deal, but with the marketing advantages Ichiro brings to a diverse city such as San Francisco, the Giants are lucky I'm not asking them for Matt Cain, too.
Ichiro can play center or right for the Giants, with Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn filling in the other two. Betancourt gives the Giants options with Eugene Velez and Emannuel Burris, one of whom is redundant.
The M's use Sanchez in the rotation immediately, Noonan reports to High-A High Desert and probably ends the year as a 20-year-old in Double-A West Tennessee, while Alderson and Bumgarner both have a shot to start their season in AA, though Bumgarner pitched all of 2008 in Low A.
For the Giants to ever be interested in adding veterans to their everyday lineup, other coinciding moves must accompany Ichiro or Beltre, but if Ichiro became available, the Giants would make a phone call, you can bet on it. The Bay Area is as perfect a fit for Ichiro as he is for it.
Ichiro to New York Yankees for 1B Jesus Montero, RHP Zach McAllister, RHP Ian Kennedy
Montero is the prize of this deal for Seattle, but he's unlikely to stick behind the plate because he's stiff and lacks great hands. He's athletic enough to play first base, perhaps well, and his bat certainly projects anywhere.
McAllister is a potential workhorse, but without an out pitch he remains an innings-type starter with a low-90s fastball and a two-seamer with good sink and run. He's two-plus years away, but projects into the No. 3 slot in a rotation.
If the Yankees balked at Montero, the M's could demand they replace him with Austin Romine, a defensive-minded catcher who can hit, too, and Austin Jackson, a high-upside, but athletic outfielder with 25-30 home run power if he fully develops.
Ichiro and SS Yunieksy Betancourt to Los Angeles Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp, SS Ivan De Jesus and RHP James McDonald.
Yeah, this is basically the same deal as the Beltre scenario, but with McDonald replacing Elbert. There really isn't a chance that Clayton Kershaw is traded and the Dodgers are unlikely to trade any of the other regulars in their lineup such as James Loney or Russ Martin, unless their replacements are previously acquired.
If the Dodgers lose out on Manny Ramirez and fail to re-sign Rafael Furcal, first baseman Mark Teixeira may become their top target, which would naturally make Loney expendable.
While Loney is no star, he's a solid bat who can field his position well in the mold of John Olerud - not a ton of range but very adept at digging balls in the dirt and makes all the routine plays.
Getting into any Ichiro sweepstakes would mean that the Dodgers found a taker for either Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones, as they'd then have three high-salary outfielders, one without a place to play as Andre Ethier holds down left field for the time being.
In order to benefit enough from adding Ichiro to their roster, the acquiring club must be equipped to take advantage of his marketability. That pretty much eliminates any team not on a coast, with the possible exception of the Cubs, who simply do not have the bullets to land any big ticket player.
San Francisco, both New York clubs, the L.A. teams, and that's about it, since San Diego, Oakland and both Florida clubs aren't in the business of spending money.
There are several variations for the above trade ideas that would work for both clubs incolved, but the M's have to max their return in order for the though to make any sense whatsoever.
When I ran these by a Mariners scout, he didn't think any of the teams would be willing to give up that kind of talent, with the exception of the Dodgers, who are clearly in a win-now mode.
"They aren't ignoring the future, they have a lot of young talent and will continue to protect it," he said. "But with Joe (Torre) in there and hearing how hard they are going after Manny and Derek Lowe and maybe Teixeira and C.C., too, that's a clear sign that they are about 2009 and 2010. That's an opportunity to go get a youngster or two from them in exchange for a veteran.
"But I can't sit here and tell you that anyone, inside or outside of this organization, has ever said word one, to or around me, about trading Ichiro."
That's because the only way the Mariners would ever consider trading the eight-time all-star outfielder is if he made such a request.
Remember that.
ichiro-is-tradeable
Comments
The following 13 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: acqb1424 on 11-13-2008 12:56:23 Would Ichiro ever demand a trade? Do you think the Giants would give up Noonan and Sanchez for Beltre? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2008 13:03:16 Maybe, but they'd have to value the draft picks accordingly in order for that. |
| 3. By: Blowgun7 on 11-13-2008 13:37:10 Ichiro couldnt land that Yanks package? It's solid, but I cant believe the person you talked to said that was too much. I know Montero has alot of potential, but neither McAllsiter or Kennedy project as top of the rotation guys. I do agree that it would be difficult to land those players from SF. That is a strong package of young players. The LA deal seems pretty fair |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2008 13:41:06 The Yankees are in love with Montero. |
| 5. By: safecochatter on 11-13-2008 14:10:03 the san francisco trade would be great. maybe with ichiro going out one door and griffey jr walking in another.u can recoup some gate. i never have been a bring back jr fan. but it's not like he'll block any prospects in the next year or two. and he'd probably dh mostly anyway. saunders and halman are a year away at least. what would we lose in draft picks to sign jr? |
| 6. By: jgstecker on 11-13-2008 15:03:27 If salary is a hangup for LA, the Mariners should be willing to take Andruw Jones. The M's can afford to absorb his contract in 2009 if it means getting those pieces. I'd even be willing to take Winn back for a year to help SF clear room. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2008 15:15:58 The White Sox probably aren't going to offer arby to Junior, so it wouldn't cost any picks at all, unless he was signed before the deadline to offer arbitration to a player. Griffey is a Type B. |
| 8. By: marinerdan on 11-13-2008 16:54:31 Heck, we could sign Griffey and Randy Johnson for cheap, 1yr deals with incentives, at least give the fans someone to route for while they loose. |
| 9. By: FelixElRey on 11-13-2008 18:00:15 Nah, while a case can be made for signing Griffey since he won't be blocking any prospects, that is not the case with Randy Johnson. As of right now, our rotation will be Felix, Bedard, Silva, Morrow, and RRS. While nobody likes Silva, they put a lot of money into him, so he's gonna start when healthy. (Hopefully he loses some weight and has a better year.) If we bring in Johnson, that puts RRS on the back burner for another year which would be really unfortunate. This kid has been great for us, and he deserves a chance to come into his own and be ready to be a solid No. 3/4 starter (or really good 5) when we're able to contend again. |
| 10. By: FelixElRey on 11-13-2008 18:02:36 Jason, is it pretty much understood that if Bedard is healthy and effective in the first half that he will be dealt, or do you think the organization will try to extend him or take the picks? What type of year would he have to have in order to be a Type A free agent since it's based on the last two seasons? |
| 11. By: FelixElRey on 11-13-2008 18:20:12 I know there's the "2 posts in a row" rule, but I'm just so pumped to have a place to bounce ideas and have discussions with intelligent fans again... Jason, when you said that Ichiro would have to ask for a trade in order to be shopped, is that because of the fear of backlash by the fans (they can say, hey, it's not our decision! he wanted to be traded...) OR do you think they are just too thick headed to trade the face of the franchise? (towards which I say, "move aside for felix!") To me it's simple. By trading Ichiro, they could get AT LEAST a top outfield prospect plus others. Let's say this prospect is a year+ from the bigs. As Ichiro continues to decline slowly (but steadily), in 2011, this prospect will have a full year under his belt and ready to come into his own. Chances are that this prospect will have an edge on Ichiro defensively and Ichiro will probably have the edge hitting. Bottom line is that the two will be near equal. Doing the math, you have two equal players...one costs 17 million. The other less than a million. Plus, whoever else we get in the trade, which should be at least one other solid major league talent. I realize that this is quite a simplification, and prospects are never "sure things" (just ask jeremy reed), but we should be able to demand more than equal talent due to the marketing boost Ichiro brings to a club, and we'll be able to afford it with all the money coming off the books in the next couple years anyways. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-15-2008 18:53:35 By the way guys - particularly Rey - to get paragraph breaks, ad two "< br >" with the spaces or quotations where you want a new paragraph to start. Rey, I think they'd deal Ichiro if he asked for it, it's really that simple. If he doesn't, they won't, unfortunately. It's not a fear of fan blacklash, it's a fear of not-as-rich-pockets. Bedard would need to have a really good season to be a Type A, but nothing ridiculous. A repeat of what he did in 2007 would do it, most likely. |
| 13. By: DAMellen on 11-20-2008 01:33:29 I don't think it'll happen, but if it got us Bumgarner or Alderson I'm all for it. I'm also a big fan of Angel Villalona who I know you've mentioned before, but left out this time. You think the Giants have decided he's untouchable? |
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