Prospect Insider - Heilman could help in 2012

Heilman could help in 2012

By Chris Crawford

By 01-11-2012

As first reported by Larry Stone, the Mariners have signed Aaron Heilman to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training. Despite having never thrown a pitch in Seattle, he’s somewhat famous with M’s fans for being involved in two different trades –- first the Franklin Gutierrez-J.J. Putz blockbuster, and then traded to Chicago for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson.

Upon first glance, Heilman was terrible last year; a 6.88 ERA in 32 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. If you take a closer inspection though, the former Notre Dame hurler might have been better than the counting stats tell us. His BABIP was a staggering .360, closer to 70 points higher than his career average. The biggest issue though was the homers –- 20 percent of the fly balls that Heilman gave up left the ball park, which was 45 percent higher than his career average of eleven. His FIP was 5.12, but his xFIP -- admittedly a statistic that has its flaws -– was a much more respectable 3.60. He still misses bats (8.40 K/9 ratio) and he only walked eleven batters in his 35 innings of work.

I’m not guaranteeing that Heilman is going to help next year –- he’s not even a sure thing to make the team, the pen is one of the strengths of the 2012 roster at this point -– but if you take a closer look at his statistics over his career, he’s the type of arm that can help a major-league roster. This could be your Jamey Wright of 2012, if 2011 is the aberration I think it might be.

heilman-could-help-in-2012

Comments
The following 9 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: maqman on 01-11-2012 13:16:09
At this point he's just another body on The Pile Z is building. This is not a bad thing, Z has a pretty good eye for pitching talent. Maybe we can polish him up shiny and flip him for a useful piece at the trade deadline.

2. By: Chris Crawford on 01-11-2012 13:19:29
Certainly possible, Maq. Just a note, I ignored some awfully bad stats as well (27 percent LD percentage, over a 1.000 OPS vs right-handed hitters), but Safeco could really help him, I think.

3. By: Edman on 01-11-2012 14:06:27
A younger version of Jamey Wright. I agree that his numbers were skewed and he still might have some value. No way to really lose with signing him, and he may have some value.

4. By: mymrbig on 01-11-2012 15:03:16
This is a very nice, no-risk pick-up. Last year, Heilman had a 3.33 SIERA and, as mentioned, a 3.60 xFIP. His career SIERA is 3.88 and career xFIP is 4.12. It would be foolish to expect or predict greatness, but he is a good depth signing and it wouldn't be surprising if he earns a roster spot.

5. By: greentunic on 01-11-2012 21:03:55
I like JZ's strategy here. Low risk moves like this don't work out very often (Byrnes, Kennedy, etc.) but when they do, they benefits far outweigh the risks.

Heilmen is a perfect example of a "misfit toy" in that everyone looks at the ERA and homers-against and allows the Mariners to get him for almost nothing. In Z I trust.

6. By: Jerry on 01-12-2012 12:51:41
Yeah, I agree with what everyone is saying. This is a great move for the M's. Low risk, solid chance at a good return on the investment, and a possible trade chip at midseason if the M's aren't contending.

The further we get into this offseason, the more I think it makes sense to just play it cool and focus on developing the guys on the club.

I wouldn't mind seeing them sign another buy-low candidate like Rich Harden, plus one (or both?!?) of Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. Then just let the kids play.

7. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-12-2012 13:10:52

Ditto what everyone else is saying about Heilmann. I see very little way that it could bite us in the butt, and it could have a moderate dividend.

The one thing that's got me a little antsy is that available offensive upgrades we could get under wraps this year are reeeeeeeeaaaaally diminishing fast. Luke Scott (ill-informed political beliefs aside) could've been a decent move for US, instead he goes to the Rays.

I'm not against playing a lot of kids if they've earned the shots on the big club by Spring Training's end. But I really don't want it to be a case where they "win" the jobs by default, either, because we have NOTHING else.

I actually don't expect Zduriencik to make a play for Cespedes, just due to a still-sky-high asking price, questions about his age that aren't going away, and a real lack of knowledge about him and his ceiling as a major-league ballplayer.

Jorge Soler might be a totally different story, though.

8. By: maqman on 01-12-2012 13:27:02
I agree rocketdawg31, Jorge Soler would be my choice of the two. I believe he's only 19 years old and will benefit from going through our minor league system. Cespedes is a little old and Cuban ball is equated with our AA teams. Lots of people like him that know a lot more than I do about playing the game but the numbers being thrown around are too risky for my liking. Even Soler is probably going to get more than the best prospects coming out of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela together this year. I'd rather we spend our now limited money there.

9. By: dewey on 01-13-2012 00:42:35
More eye wash the guy was awful last year yes he cost nothing but you gain nothing .Sign some guys with track records of being good and i might by cable.I never wanted Prince but im all in now its our only shot at pulling out of this losing streak i mean years..

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