| By Adam P. Boyd |  | By 09-25-2010 |
The conclusion of a two-part series evaluating how General Manager Jack Zduriencik has done in acquiring talent for the Seattle Mariners focuses on his second season -- from the 2009 off-season til now. Zdduriencik made 10 trades in his first season, and number 11 was a whopper.Trade 11 -- December 16th, 2009
Seattle Mariners receive : SP Cliff Lee (+4.0 WAR)
Philadelphia Phillies receive : SP Phillipe Aumont, SP J.C. Ramirez, and CF Tyson Gillies
Just like year one, Jack opened year two with a bang -- acquiring one of the top starting pitchers in the league -- and doing it without sacrificing any of the systems top prospects. In fact, Zduriencik was able to acquire Lee for less than the Phillies had paid for him around a half a year earlier. While Lee's stint with Seattle was short -- and did not produce the team success that many had hoped for -- the left-hander was superb after returning from an injury early in the season. Zduriencik was then able to flip Lee in a later trade for even more impressive results (more on that later).
As for what was given up -- Gillies came off a successful season in High A but followed that up with a .619 OPS in over 105 at-bats for Philadelphia's AA affiliate Reading, and was injured for the majority of the year. Aumont -- Seattle's 2007 first round pick -- was shifted back to the rotation and floundered for fifty innings in AA (7.43 ERA) before a demotion to A+ Clearwater, where he finished with a 4.48 ERA. Aumont did little to prove that he was able to sustain success in the rotation and will probably need to be shifted back to the bullpen. Ramirez -- also sent to Reading -- put up decent numbers, but his season ended early after a required hip surgery. In the end, Seattle got half a season of Lee, four additional wins, and four prospects in a later deal without giving up appropriate value in return.
Result: Huge Win
Trade 12 -- December 18th, 2009
Seattle Mariners receive : LF/DH Milton Bradley (-0.2 WAR)
Chicago Cubs receive : SP Carlos Silva (+2.1 WAR)
Silva, a holdover from the Bill Bavasi era, was a disaster of a contract. Signed to a four year, $48 million dollar deal following the 2007 season, Silva essentially pitched his way out of Seattle. Zduriencik surprised many when he was able to flip the right-hander to the Cubs for a player who although problematic, filled a hole and appeared to fill an offensive hole at the same time. Bradley was brought in to provide some of the value he had in previous seasons when he provided plus on-base skills and decent pop with useful defensive skills.
Unfortunately, Bradley stumbled out of the gate and ended up on the disabled list ( a common place for Bradley to be) and the switch-hitter never put up the numbers he was capable of producing. Silva, meanwhile, ended up being useful for Chicago thanks to a drastic change in pitching style (Fastball usage went from 83.1% to 54.6%, change-up from 13.2% to 31$)-- though Silva was also injured for the past month. In the end, while the gamble was worth it, the results do not seem to have panned out. While Bradley was not the same value to Seattle that Silva was to the Cubs, the Mariners have more of a use for Milton going forward, so it feels appropriate to call this one even.
Result: Push.
Trade 13 -- December 23rd, 2009
Seattle Mariners receive: RP Brandon League (+0.3 WAR) and LF Johermyn Chavez
Toronto Blue Jays receive: SP Brandon Morrow (+3.6 WAR)
Looking for a quick fix to some of the Mariners' potential bullpen issues -- and gambling that Morrow would never be able to fix his command problems -- Zduriencik flipped the former fifth overall pick for League, a hard tossing reliever with the best swing and miss pitch of 2009, and Chavez, the Blue jays 2009 minor-league Player Of The Year, Chavez. League has managed to lose effectiveness thanks to throwing his splitter drastically less than he did last year (32.5% in 09 to 17.3% in '10) and has provided negligible value to the club. Chavez thrived in the hitters paradise of High Desert, but there are signs that the power is real and his success may continue.
M's fans all collectively shook their heads at what could have been when Morrow struck out 17 Tampa Bay Rays on August 8th, finishing with a one hit complete game shutout. Morrow was shutdown in early September and finished the year with 178 strikeouts in 146.1 innings compared to 66 walks. The command problems have not been completely solved, but the former Cal Bear has become an effective pitcher who holds more value than either League Or Chavez. The right-hander would look awfully good in the 2011 rotation along side Felix and Michael Pineda -- but sadly it is not to be. Unless Chavez blossoms into an everyday player, this trade stands as a loss.
Result: Loss.
Trade 14 -- January 7th, 2010
Seattle Mariners receive :1B Casey Kotchman (-1.0 WAR)
Boston Red Sox receive: UT Bill Hall (+0.8 WAR)
Jack decided to trade one reclamation project for another when he shipped Hall to Boston for Kotchman, a former first-round pick of the Angels. Zduriencik mentioned after the deal how he considered drafting Kotchman years prior and cited his excellent defense and line-drive swing for reasons he went out and got him, adding on that Kotchman was just turning 27, and Zduriencik was hoping for a similiar breakout to that of Franklin Gutierrez at the same age. Unfortunately, Kotchman barely provided above-average defense (0.6 UZR) and he was terrible at the plate, posting a line so far of .220/.283/.339.
Hall was a surprise for the Red Sox, providing solid defense at a number of positions throughout the year, and providing pop off the bench (17 home runs). He has his shortcomings -- his on-base percentage was only .306 -- but that was a higher OBP than Kotchman and he added more value to a better team. Another gamble that was worth a shot with Seattle having no real 1B options entering the season, but one did not produce very good results. Despite Hall being worth more -- the trade was worth a shot -- and Hall did not really have a place with the 2010 roster.
Result: Minor Loss.
Trade 15 -- June 27th, 2010
Seattle Mariners receive: 1B/DH Russell Branyan (0.8 WAR)
Cleveland Indians receive: SS Juan Diaz and CF Ezequiel Carrera.
With Seattle rapidly falling out of contention of being even mediocre -- and an offense that was deeply flawed -- Zduriencik looked to acquire a familiar face when he traded a two prospects to receive Branyan and his power bat. Bryanyan has given the Mariners what they wanted, althoug the overall effect has been negligible. Carrera has had a mediocre season in AAA and has little chance of being anything more than a fourth outfielder in the big leagues, while Diaz's OPS dropped over 130 points once leaving the friendly confines of Adelanto.
It was an odd trade at the time, but the team desparately needed some sort of bat and Zduriencik did not give up much for Branyan, who provided some value to the club.
Result Push.
Trade 16 -- July 9th, 2010
Seattle Mariners receive: SP Blake Beavan, RP Josh Lueke, 1B Justin Smoak (-0.8 WAR, and 2B Matthew Lawson
Texas Rangers receive: SP Cliff Lee (+2.6 WAR) and RP Mark Lowe
Zduriencik held on to Lee for as long as he could, but by early July it was clear the 2010 Mariners were and unmitigated disaster and Lee, the crown jewel of the off-season, had to be moved with his impending free agency. Zduriencik chose to move him instead of holding onto the left-hander and taking draft pick compensation, and was able to get the corner power bat that he coveted -- Justin Smoak. Despite having an offer on the table for Jesus Montero from the Yankees, Zduriencik chose the switch-hitter from South Carolina, and was also able to acquire Beavan, the Rangers 2007 first-round pick (though his ceiling is likely a fourth starter), a potential-utlity infielder in Lawson, and the controversial selection of Josh Lueke. Zduriencik also gave up the injured Lowe, but Lueke has the potential to be a lockdown closer, and if the legal issues don't follow him into spring training the right-hander will likely be pitching for a spot in the 2010 bullpen.
While Lee's loss was a big one, the value he was going to provide the cellar-dwelling Mariners through either his pitching or draft-pick compensation was not equal to the return in the trade. Smoak, the 11th pick in the 2008 draft, has lots of admirers and could be a cornerstone type player to be excited about. Jack Zduriencik essentially turned Aumont/Ramirez/Gillies into Smoak/Lueke/Lawson/Beavan while giving fans three months of watching Cliff Lee. Not bad Jack, not bad.
Result: WIN.
Zduriencik's second season did not have as many trades as the first, and a few of the trades did not pan out as expected. The Morrow trade stands out as one Zduriencik would not likely make now given the chance -- although Chavez has a chance to be an interesting player. The trades made during year two were a bit odd -- it seemed like the front office wanted to try and contend without fully commiting too it -- and paid the price as 2010 was a lost season. Jack was able to salvage of this when he was able to trade Lee for someone once thought to be "untouchable" in Smoak, and gives M's fans some interesting players to look forward to in 2011. The Kotchman trade was likely a mistake in hindsight, and the Bradley trade did not work out as planned.
Kotchman and Branyan more than likely not going to be in Seattle next season, and Bradley's spot is far from guaranteed as well. Chavez will likely start out the season in Jackson, with Beavan and Lawson headed to Tacoma. Overall, Zduriencik was able to acquire a potential-all star in Smoak, a future closer in Lueke (if hes not dealt) and some other decent pieces to play with as well. But with the loss of Morrow and a couple of go-nowhere trades, it seems fair to give Zduriencik a B in his second year.
grading-zduriencik:-part-ii
Comments
The following 59 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: wcs425 on 09-25-2010 16:33:21 I'm wondering, there has GOT to be somebody in the organization that has pointed that out to League - like, hey man, you are using all your sucky pitches and not the really good one. c'mon |
| 2. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-25-2010 18:11:09 He knows about the criticisms regarding his pitch selection, but League (incorrectly) maintains that his splitter is more effective when he establishes his fastball. |
| 3. By: ptdog on 09-25-2010 19:39:12 Minor correction: Jack Zduriencik essentially turned Aumont/Ramirez/Gillies...and Lowe into Smoak/Lueke/Lawson/Beavan. Great article. |
| 4. By: Blowgun7 on 09-25-2010 20:38:10 Morrow is a Huge Loss IMO. |
| 5. By: Edman on 09-25-2010 21:36:03 Morrow could be a huge loss, but he certainly isn't right now. A lot depends on if he can ever tap his potential on a consistent basis. And, it can't be determined what Chavez could be in the future. I agree with Adam, at this point, it's a loss. |
| 6. By: micahjr on 09-25-2010 22:41:56 Nice report card, Adam. Morrow looks like a huge loss this year, but let's not forget that he looked awful for the first 2 1/2 months of the season, and hasn't yet put together a consistent season. Morrow could still flame out. Even if Morrow flames out, we probably lose this trade. I don't think it will be a huge loss, though. I still wouldn't have chosen to do it. I think the trade makes a lot more sense as the final part of the Cliff Lee trade for Toronto. |
| 7. By: rocketdawg31 on 09-26-2010 00:49:12 Micahjr- The M's brass won't say so, but I don't have any doubt in my mind that the Morrow trade to the Jays was a condition of the Philadelphia deal. |
| 8. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-26-2010 01:17:59 It probably was, but since it has never been acknowledged as such publicly I just proceeded under the assumption that it was an independent transaction. |
| 9. By: petermag on 09-26-2010 10:04:19 Adam. Thanks for this series. Great stuff here. Its nice to read fair assessments based on facts rather than just emotionally driven babel. I agree with your grade of B. One thing I'd like to point out regarding Morrow, is the impact that a change of scenery can have on a player or any individual. Just because Morrow did well this year does not mean he would have had those type of results if he would have stayed here. |
| 10. By: jgstecker on 09-26-2010 10:50:15 I think you have to call the Bradley/Silva trade a clear-cut Loss. It was a push in 2010, but in 2011, Zdurenciek has added another $6 million over what was owed to Silva originally. Instead of a $12 million dead weight we now have an $18 million dead weight. Of all the things to be irrationally optimistic about in 2011, a Milton Bradley resurgence is probably least likely to happen. That extra $6 million would be huge heading into this offseason. It might represent more than half the available budget and could've bought a couple of very useful pieces instead of a broken 4th OF. |
| 11. By: Marlin Man on 09-26-2010 10:51:42 Smoak- "potential All-Star"???? go ahead gents and jump me, but I just don't see it with this guy? I can not see why in heck he is so high on everyone list, other than wishful thinking? M.M. |
| 12. By: safecochatter on 09-26-2010 13:24:30 with the exception of cliff lee trades,both incoming and outgoing. all the other moves by jack were a push at best. then u add the addition of the peashooting figgins. great move here as we were running low on peashooters. then you watch jack throw wak and fusco under the bus. and the poor handling of the griffey situation. i think this is an acquiring talent evaluation,but i think u gotta evaluate the whole ball of wax. and i come up with a D+ rating. and there will be no cliff lee falling into his hands next year either. inmho jack is an assistant gm,not a mlb gm. on the plus side ya gotta give jack credit for not trading away future mlb pieces.he's staying with the game plan of trying to win now and in the future. hence the branyan trade,which helped the "now" and didn't cost much. and one problem jack has is the lack of money. a mariner budget of almost 118 million(cots) in 08 is got to be to closer to 88 million with the lee and griffey contracts coming off during the year. when the hell did the seattle mariners turn into a small market team?? what the hell do the suits tell ownership? ya we sucked big time,lost 100 ball games,but no big deal. we turned a nice profit.. thanx for the time sink adam! nice job! |
| 13. By: rjfrik on 09-26-2010 15:32:02 Any chance we can go 1-6 the rest of the way out and the Pirates go 6-1? I like our chances but I don't think the Pirates can pull it off. My guess is they go 5-2 and we miss out on the #1 by losing the tie breaker. |
| 14. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-26-2010 16:02:46 Thanks guys. Marlin Man - Smoak has 300 big league ABs. He still grades out with plus power to all fields from both sides of the plate, has great plate discipline, and has at least average defense. He has good bat speed, squares up well. He is still adjusting to wood - the results should come, he is only 23. Give the kid a chance to show what he can do. jgstecker - Perhaps, but that extra $6 million would not have been able to get anyone capable of making the 2011 Mariners a contender - Bradley should be able to provide some value at the DH spot, and if the team can get 200-300 quality ABs from him it is better than nothing. That money all comes off the books for 2012 - only Chone, Felix, Guti, and Ichiro are signed for any sort of big money. rjfrik - Don't get your hopes up! |
| 15. By: micahjr on 09-26-2010 16:24:11 @safecochatter Figgins was not a bad acquisition. Career numbers: 2003 to 2009, averaged 3.2 war, even with this year: career OBP of .360, dependable to steal 40 bases. At a price of less than 3 million per WAR it was a good acquisition. It isn't clear that Zduriencik can be blamed for the position switch that killed Figgins defensive value, or the attitude problems that have come up. Griffey may not have even been Jack's decision. Jack certainly threw Wak under the bus. I'd bet, though, he had nothing to do with one of his best friends, Carmen Fusco, being sacked. On acquiring talent, just look at how much better our minor league system looks, and the number of MLB ready players we have. Second year not as good as the first but certainly not a D+. |
| 16. By: Timberwolf on 09-26-2010 17:12:51 Solid analysis. Brendan Morrow was never going to reach his potential in Seattle. It was a great trade for the Jays, but that doesn't make it a disaster for the Mariners. Chavez has some upside, so loss is an appropriate score. |
| 17. By: 11records on 09-26-2010 21:46:45 So - Cortes has obviously made a quick transition to the pen, and has had early success as a reliever. Does that mean that the switch is permanent, or are we looking at another Brandon Morrow situation? |
| 18. By: rjfrik on 09-26-2010 21:58:53 Cortes is permanent. You are looking at our future closer or setup man. He is the real deal |
| 19. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-26-2010 22:33:02 Yeah, he is not analogous to Morrow. Cortes was given 600+ innings in the minors as a starter and it did not pan out. He is going to be a bullpen mainstay for the 2011 M's. |
| 20. By: StandinPat on 09-26-2010 22:48:48 I wouldn't necessarily go as far as to say Cortes' move is permanent, but he certainly wont be yo-yo'd like Morrow was. His home is definitely in the pen, for now, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the M's give him a ST shot at the rotation a couple years down the road, especially if his command takes a step in the right direction. |
| 21. By: TheDudeAbides on 09-26-2010 23:42:51 In regards to the Morrow trade, I believe it is evident it was part of the three team Lee blockbuster. The deal needed to be completed and the M's and Jays had a few kinks to work out. Nevertheless, however you want to add it up, the Cliff Lee deal in December was great. I understand the frustration with Morrow, but he was too inconsistent, injury plagued, has a concerning case of diabetes, and was frustrated with the club. Don't get me wrong I would rather have him, but it is not an enormous loss because I think he will always have injuries. I agree with your analysis of the trades by JZ, Adam. I think you can only judge trades in two-ways: 1) At the time of the trade 2) When all is said and done I hear many people criticizing JZ for swapping Bradley, yet those same folks were praising the deal last year. Another example would be the Smoak and co. for Lee trade. Two months later everyone shoots off how they wish we had Montero. Smoak will be fine, he has the intangibles, and works extremely hard. It has been a very rough year for him. Up and down, up and down. He moves cities and his life is flipped completely. Inheriting new coaches is also a tough thing for a kid in his early 20s. Coupled with the fact he had a ton of pressure on him when he arrived in Seattle. Sure, just go out and play, but he was traded for one of the games elite pitchers and many believed Jesus had arrived to play first for the M's. Take a gander at Adrian Gonzalez stats in his first 300 AB's. He also struggled a great deal in the minors, leading some to call him a bust. Yes, he was a high schooler, but didn't become good for five years. Smoak was in high school five years ago. He will be fine. Maybe crazy to even think about, but with a protected pick, why not sign Crawford or Dunn? Sure probably won't be competitive in 2011, but 2012 could be sweet. Roll Tide!!! |
| 22. By: universalguru on 09-27-2010 09:00:16 Even if you think that Dunn or Crawford will consider playing for the team with 2011's second worst record, you have to concede that we'd need to probably (severly) overpay to get either of them. We just aren't in the position to attract any marquee free agents this offseason. That's not to say Jack won't find useful players. I just wouldn't expect a proven all-star to arrive via free agency unless they have some injury issues (and I bet Jack would be a bit hesitant after this past season). |
| 23. By: Jerry on 09-27-2010 09:10:42 Great evaluation. However, I think its really important to remember to focus on process instead of results in evaluating a GM. A lot of the comments above fall into the trap of focusing on results over process. Further, a lot of the comments above are focusing WAAAAY to much on small samples in evaluating young players. For me, the only move I really didn't like last offseason was the Morrow trade. I didn't think it was wise to move a high upside guy like Morrow, especially not for a reliever and a second tier prospect. That is a great example of bad process. Morrow was a good SP prospect who had previous experience as a very good reliever. Starters are far more valuable than relievers. That is a terrible value. It turned out that the trade worked out terribly for the M's, despite that fact that League and Chavez both had pretty good years. Its not so much about whether or not Chavez turns out to be a good player or not. The trade wasn't a wise move at the time it was made. The other moves that people here are blasting are more a result of bad luck. Nobody saw Figgins falling off the cliff like he has. Nobody thought that Silva would outperform Bradley. Those outcomes are basically just unforeseeable bad luck. In baseball, you often get bad results, even when the process is solid. Both of these moves reflect that. The acquisition of Kotchman also fits into this category: the guy had skills, and was a reasonable gamble. It didn't work out the way we all hoped, but that's the way these things go. You take a chance to acquire a player with upside, and it sometimes doesn't work out. But the cost was minimal, and the M's didn't have too many better options. The process, or the underlying rationale behind the move, was solid. Seasons like this result in a lot of revisionist thinking. People want to find someone to blame for a really disappointing year. But the M's were a very lucky team in 2009, and played way above their real talent level. This year, they had terrible luck and played far below their real talent level. But Jack Z and friends are doing a good job, even if things didn't go their way this year. Its bad luck. But even after a year in which little went well, the team is still in pretty good shape going forward. We have a ton of young talent to integrate into the roster. Fans just need to be patient and believe in the process, instead of jumping ship after a few bad results. |
| 24. By: Jerry on 09-27-2010 09:17:14 Universalguru, Why wouldn't the M's be able to attract marquee free agents? One of the most universal truths in baseball is that players go where the money is. If you give them a big contract, players will sign on the dotted line. Why wouldn't Adam Dunn sign with the M's? The guy signed with the Nationals just two years ago, for a very reasonable contract. Do you think that Dunn turned down offers from other clubs to go play with the Nats because of their long tradition of winning? Crawford will do the same thing. He is in position to sign the biggest contract of his career. He'll almost definitely take the biggest contract. Its as simple as that. The reason the M's won't sign these guys is because they don't have a lot of free payroll space, and aren't in a good position to address their weaknesses through free agency. It wouldn't make sense for them to do so. But its not because those players wouldn't come to play in Seattle. In baseball, 95% of free agency comes down to money. |
| 25. By: rjfrik on 09-27-2010 14:32:16 About Dunn. He has repeatedly said that he doesn't want to DH and he also prefers to play on the east coast. So that pretty much makes him wanting to sign with us a long shot. Unless you overpay for him and plug him in at 1B which of course would impede the growth of Smoak. |
| 26. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-27-2010 20:38:41 25, just to play devils advocate... If the Mariners signed (Dunn/Martinez) or traded (Fielder/Cabrera) for a 1B, Smoak could develope as a DH, which would lower his $$ in arb. and potentially make it cheaper to sign him to a Crawford, Braun, Longoria type deal. After he signs for 6-8 years with options, we could move him back to 1B and either trade our other 1B or move them to DH to avoid playing the weaker defender at 1B. My prefence would be for Miguel Cabrera, send the Tigers a handful of prospects and get them to eat all but $18MM/season x the length of the remaining years on the contract. Maybe Triunfel, Halman, Lueke, Beavan, and Joh. Chavez for Cabrera and cash. Sure the Tigers have money coming off the books, but they know how volatile Cabrera can be. Put Cabrera at 1B and move Smoak to DH, when Smoak signs the long term team friendly deal (maybe use Adam Lind's contract +1 yr. and $500K), move Cabrera to DH and Smoak to 1B. Cabrera is one of the few right-handed batters in the league that can play in Safeco without his numbers suffering, that's a huge advantage when teams throw lefties in Safeco to take away our home field advantage. I'd even move Cabrera to 3B and take the negative fielding value to get a proven hitter in the lineup. My point, it might be in our benefit to sign another 1B to push Smoak to be better and to push down his long-term contract value by making him a temporary DH. Like I said, just playing devils advocate. |
| 27. By: dawgncarolina on 09-27-2010 21:31:23 So you suggest that we falsely diminish Smoak's value in order to get him to sign a long term deal? And then, after blatantly cheating his contract value, move him back to first base, demonstrating to all that it was purely a negotiating tactic? And this is the way to treat a player you want around long term as a cornerstone of the franchise? I've seen some ignorant suggestions online, but this one is pretty amazing. I also like the idea that Cabrera (or any) right handed hitter wouldn't suffer from hitting at Safeco. Good stuff man. |
| 28. By: marinermutt on 09-27-2010 22:53:24 I don't believe the Tigers would trade Cabrera to the M's for a bunch of mid to lower level prospects and give us cash also. On a side note, nice to see Smoak hit the ball hard the last couple of games. Hopefully go into the off season on a high note which will translate into better numbers for him next year. |
| 29. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-28-2010 00:17:48 The M's aren't getting Dunn, Cabrera, or Crawford. |
| 30. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 01:21:48 I love this... 27. By: dawgncarolina on 09-27-2010 21:31:23 >"So you suggest that we falsely diminish Smoak's value in order to get him to sign a long term deal?" No, you threaten to diminish his value in order to get him to sign a long-term and team friendly deal. If he goes year-to-year as a 1B he could make $30MM over the next 6 years. As a DH over the same time period, he'd make about $15MM with the same offensive production. If he's willing to sign for 8 years, you get him to sign the Braun deal $40MM/8 years and tell him he'll be playing 1B. >"And then, after blatantly cheating his contract value, move him back to first base, demonstrating to all that it was purely a negotiating tactic?" Pick your favorite example of jacking around a players earning potential by calling them up after the season started to delay the service time clock. Evan Longoria David Price Justin Smoak Travis Snider Matt Weiters Kyle Drabek Zach Duke Dominic Brown >"And this is the way to treat a player you want around long term as a cornerstone of the franchise?" When players show loyalty to the organizations, I'll totally support the team showing loyalty to the player. When guys like Cole Hamels and Jon Papelbon start talking about their record paydays like when Papelbon talked about setting the record for largest contract given a closer, so that other closers will get paid better, it does nothing for making me want to see the player get "hooked up". >"I've seen some ignorant suggestions online, but this one is pretty amazing." So what's that make you sound like, when you are oblivious to every team in baseball working their way around paying the players more. You like this is a new idea, which just shows how naive you are to the business side of things. >"I also like the idea that Cabrera (or any) right handed hitter wouldn't suffer from hitting at Safeco." Ever heard of Edgar Martinez? Look at his career numbers in Safeco and then on the road over that same period of time. Makes you look really stupid for thinking that. Even on the juice, Bret Boone kicked a lot of *ss as a 5'10 and 190 lbs. right-handed slugger. So let's stop acting like all RH hitters are created equal. You really think Pujols or Cabrera would have a weaker year if they played their home games in Safeco? You do realize that Comerica is exactly like Safeco, except they moved the LF wall in a little bit. Say our lineup looked like this: Ichiro RF Figgins 3B Gutierrez CF Cabrera 1B Martinez C Smoak DH Saunders LF Franklin SS Ackley 2B That lineup would be tough to beat in Safeco, which is my point with bringing in Cabrera. Martinez would probably come here for a chance to start at catcher and we could back him up with Moore. We don't need Aardsma, League, Vargas, or Ja. Wilson, which could all be trade bait for fringy guys. If we can get Cortes for Betancourt, than we can get something for Wilson, League, Aardsma, and Vargas. Which would save us around $14MM. If they go to $100MM on the payroll, they could put this team together. >"Good stuff man." Thanks. |
| 31. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 01:27:51 28, just something to consider ~ Those are 5 of our top 10 prospects and at the worst 5 of our top 15 prospects. We have one of the top 10 and maybe top 5 farm systems in baseball. That's a haul. Just because we don't give Smoak, Ackley, Pineda, Moore, Saunders, or Franklin, doesn't mean the package sucks. There's a lot of upside there. It also includes a future shut down closer and a guy who at one point threw 97mph in high school. If Beaven adds a couple mph to his 91-93mph fastball, he becomes a potential #2. Good analysis on your part though. While they are some risky players, they also have a lot of tools and the Tigers get to remove themselves from the last 5 years of a contract that could go terribly south. Right now they need flexibility and this would fill a number of holes and allow them to get younger as they really need a rebuild in Detroit. |
| 32. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 01:29:21 One final thought, the Mariners would be going through a rebuild year in 2011 idf it wasn't for the Lueke situation, but Zduriencik can't afford another losing season, look for him to go all in. If they don't win 80 some games next year, he'll get canned and he knows it. They are going to start cashing in their farm system to get those missing pieces that will make them competitive. |
| 33. By: Timberwolf on 09-28-2010 01:35:20 Top level free agents follow the money, but still want to play for a contender. Nobody wants to be the next Alex Rodriguez in Texas. Our geography and isolation puts us at a disadvantage for most Free agents . In the case of northwest natives, Asians, and Venezuelans, we have a much better shot. It can't be a coincidence that a significant number of the players acquired by Jack Z just happen to have Venezuelan birth certificates like the one our franchise player has. |
| 34. By: rjfrik on 09-28-2010 01:37:51 Wow roster that was a novel. |
| 35. By: micahjr on 09-28-2010 02:09:02 I'm starting to wonder if rosterbatorextraordinaire is a comedy routine by somebody from the Seattle Mariners blogosphere. However, their posts are generally not to level of absurdity that Master Bator's are. I hope he washes after touching that keyboard. "Tis better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt." --Honest Abe |
| 36. By: dawgncarolina on 09-28-2010 03:42:06 "You like this is a new idea, which just shows how naive you are to the business side of things." I assume you meant to say "act like", but regardless, yes, it's a completely new idea. No team in baseball moves players down the defensive spectrum to sign them to long term deals, then moves them back to their proper position. Your comparison to the very common practice of calling players up later to keep control of them longer is not even close to apt. You're asking the M's to try something blatantly disrespectful that nobody does, and thinking this is going to make Smoak WANT to stay here. It's completely asinine. The naive one is you, who thinks there's a chance in hell the Mariners would try this. "Ever heard of Edgar Martinez? Look at his career numbers in Safeco and then on the road over that same period of time. Makes you look really stupid for thinking that. Even on the juice, Bret Boone kicked a lot of *ss as a 5'10 and 190 lbs. right-handed slugger. So let's stop acting like all RH hitters are created equal. You really think Pujols or Cabrera would have a weaker year if they played their home games in Safeco? You do realize that Comerica is exactly like Safeco, except they moved the LF wall in a little bit." Yikes. Yes, I've heard of Edgar Martinez. And yes, he hit very well at Safeco. You do realize that players hit better at home than on the road right, so when a player only hits as well at home as he does on the road this demonstrates that the park suppressed his numbers. Gar played all his home games at Safeco in 5 seasons. Let's take a closer look at these numbers. 00 Safeco .304/.423/.563/.986 00 away .341/.422/.594/1.016 The OBPs are roughly the same, but the average and slg are much better on the road. 01 Safeco .305/.425/.515/.940 01 away .308/.422/.570/.992 The Safe didn't damage his average as much in 01, but definitely sapped his power numbers 02 Safeco .303/.442/.545/.987 02 away .252/.359/.423/.782 Safeco's only full year where Gar hit better at the Safe than on the road comes with a small(er) sample size caveat - this was the only season after 94 where Gar appeared in less than 130 games. He played 97 times in 02. 03 Safeco .248/.370/.382/.752 03 away .339/.443/.594/1.037 Gar came back to play in 145 games, and completely prove me wrong. Safeco Field clearly didn't impact Edgar Martinez. 04 Safeco .249/.325/.353/.678 04 away .278/.361/.418/.779 Interestingly, Gar was still an entirely respectable hitter during his last stand...on the road. So, yeah, good point. People spewed the same ignorance about Richie Sexson, and they were wrong. Not that it matters, because Cabrera will never play here, but assuming Safeco wouldn't hurt his production is ridiculous. And no, Comerica is not exactly like Safeco. It's at a different altitude and has different prevailing wind patterns, not to mention has a different batter's eye. Let's stop pretending that all parks with similar dimensions have the same effect on hitters. Thanks for playing. |
| 37. By: dawgncarolina on 09-28-2010 03:56:36 "It can't be a coincidence that a significant number of the players acquired by Jack Z just happen to have Venezuelan birth certificates like the one our franchise player has." Perhaps Venezuelans are good at beisbol? I'm not sure how significant the number really is. Obviously there's Guti. I can't think of another Venezuelan big leaguer of significance Jack has acquired, though I could be overlooking someone. If you just look at the players moved on this page, Jack traded for Chavez, while moving Silva and Carrera. Going back to last year we acquired Guti, Endy Chavez (since moved), Carrerra (as mentioned, already moved), Cedeno (since moved) and Robles. But we dealt Valbuena away. Again, I could be overlooking a free agent, but in the trades we're looking at a total net change of zero Venezuelans. I don't think there's any concerted effort going on to acquire people from the homeland of El Rey. I think you're looking for a pattern where none exists. |
| 38. By: Chris Crawford on 09-28-2010 10:48:37 Limit the page posts -- point by point critiques destroy my eye-sight. I already make enough silly typos, you wouldn't want more, would you? |
| 39. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 12:03:57 35, congratulations, you proved your own quote. That was from Confucius the Asian philosopher, not "Honest Abe", Abraham Lincoln was quoting Confucius maybe, but he didn't create the quote, and if you are going to quote someone you have to quote the originator of the phrase. You look pretty stupid talking crap about someone else looking like a fool, when you miscredit your quote. Thanks for the laugh at any rate. |
| 40. By: dawgncarolina on 09-28-2010 15:59:17 Sorry Chris, you can delete 36 if you like. Here's the gist of it: Miguel Cabrera's production would be affected by Safeco Field, just like Edgar Martinez's most clearly was. |
| 41. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 16:51:29 Miguel Cabrera slash line in Safeco Field, career .364/.407/.600, so far it looks like Safeco hasn't done much to expose his flaws, small sample sizes aside, he's doing it against Felix, Bedard, Lee, etc. Our team has been at or near the top of run prevention every time he's played in Safeco, so it's not like you can blame bad pitching for his success. Edgar had a triple slash line of .293/.404/.475 in Safeco Field and a triple slash line of .321/.435/.542 in The Kingdome Let's just remember that he played in the Kingdome between the ages of 24 and 36. He played in Safeco Field from the ages of 36 to 41. Way to handicap the information "dawgincarolina". I think you're Dave Cameron, aren't you?How many other Seattle natives are in North Carolina and write with such arrogance? If you aren't Dave, you sure have his same flair. |
| 42. By: d2ret on 09-28-2010 17:06:01 "Triple slash line" sounds pretty cool, except, there are only two slashes in the "triple slash line", between three figures, by my count. Just an observation. |
| 43. By: DKulich44 on 09-28-2010 21:55:04 @rosterbatorextraordinaire He said nothing about Edgar in Safeco vs Edgar in Kingdome at all. He hit much better on the road during the seasons at Safeco, that's a fact, and it shows there may have been an effect on Edgar during his time in Safeco. Also, Edgar was a notorious opposite field doubles hitter, so Safeco shouldn't affect him nearly as much as it does heavy pull power hitters. Also, you flat out say the small sample size makes your argument weak, and yes, 62 plate appearances not nearly enough to say that Cabrera has conquered Safeco. Not to mention the Mariners do not have the payroll, nor the package to put together a deal for Miguel with the Tigers throwing money our way. The same reason we won't trade for Prince Fielder is the same reason we won't trade for Cabrera, nor would it be the major improvement we need. Also, it's been discussed, but that is terrible terrible treatment of Smoak that you want to become a cornerstone player. Not to mention messing with his development greatly by changing positions on him. I hope you're trolling, which it certainly seems like you are, and if that's the case, I think all would agree that you should do so elsewhere. |
| 44. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 22:58:38 43, DKulich... Yeah the point is that he's comparing apples and oranges, so because a 41 year old future hall of famer wasn't strong enough or had enough bat speed to be successful at Safeco, Miguel Cabrera or some other mid-20s hitter is going to fail. Notice what Edgar was doing at 38, 39, and 40 in Safeco before his skills diminished? Even Richie Sexson did just fine before his skills diminished, probably too much drinking and not enough Mickey Mantle in him to overcome it. But righties in their prime can succeed in Safeco Field. Especially the future Hall of Famers. Even if Miguel Cabrera slips a little in Safeco, he won't slip as much as the average righty. Miguel Cabrera in Safeco will still hit his homeruns, they won't be moon shots or no doubters, but they'll get out, even if they are fence skimmers. Guys that hit 20-25 HRs are the guys that suffer from playing in the Safe. Legit power plays anywhere. You sound like an idiot when you lump Fielder and Cabrera together. Look, we aren't getting Fielder because his arb. raise will be to $15MM this season and to get the compensation picks you have to offer arb. again after 2011, which means allowing him the chance to ask for $20MM, which he'll get. Nobody in their right mind is offering a 28 year old fat ass like Fielder more than $15-18MM, this Jason Bay's contract plus two years. MAYBE, $100MM or so over 7 years, but that's it. In other words, the Brewers want Fielder and are willing to pay the $20MM per season, so they don't have a problem with offering arb. A well run club however, would not offer him arb., so they can't count on the picks. No to meantion that the only team that would overpay for Fielder would be one of the bottom 15 teams with protected picks (see Baltimore). As for Cabrera. We don't have the package? We could put together a package easily for him and not even have to include our 5 top young players (Saunders, Moore, Pineda, Smoak, Ackley). We have one of the best farm systems in the league and have plenty of trade chips. Halman was 22 for most of the season and showed himself to be a 2.5+ WAR OF if he can do in the MLB what he did in AAA with good defense. Triunfel is a wildcard, but at only 20, he could easily become a 25-30 HR guy with a .300+ BA and plus defense at 3B. His bat speed is for real and just a couple tweaks to his swing could pay big dividends. Beaven is our second best pitching prospect (until we sign Paxson), and that puts him at the bottom of our top 10 prospects. Include Lueke who despite being a reliever is probably our 9th or 10th best prospect and could start next season in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball, albeit in the 80s to 90s range. Johermyn Chavez is anywhere from our 6th or 7th best prospect to our 15th best prospect depending on who you ask. And if he's the weakest prospect we are including for Cabrera, than that's a helluva hall. Maybe you should look at the packages being given up for stars these days. Hell, just look at what the Tigers paid for Cabrera 3 years ago. Aside from Andrew Miller, the rest was garbage. Triunfel and Halman are probably equal to Miller and Maybin. Then the rest was throw in garbage and they got Cabrera and Willis before we knew Willis was broken. The Mariners don't have the payroll for Cabrera? Really? If you are adding Cabrera, you can stretch the payroll because you are guaranteeing a lot more wins with him hitting cleanup. You're also going to sell a helluva lot of Mariners jerseys. Some investments are worth it. Plus you only have to look in the couch for one year, the last four are the same money you're paying Bradley and Silva for 2011. Adding Cabrera would push the payroll to $103MM and if Zduriencik is really on the hot seat, than he'll be asking for $110-$115MM. Enough to add another bat like Martinez. If the Mariners ship out Vargas, Aardsma, League, and Ja. Wilson, than they'd have $14MM to spend additional to fill holes. The point is not how the M's can do it, it's just that if they want to they can. Seeing Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera in the middle of the lineup would sell a lot of tickets. |
| 45. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-28-2010 23:03:34 Triple slash line refers to triple = three numbers. AVG = 1 OBP = 2 SLG = 3 The triple doesn't define the number of slashes, it defines the number of datums. Trust me, I didn't create the term triple slash, it's an accepted term by baseball geeks everywhere. |
| 46. By: Wes45 on 09-28-2010 23:16:48 I like the in depth analysis of players I get on this site and the mostly realistic and knowledgeable comments from subscribers. Rosterbator, amazingly you offer nothing of value. 1. Unless you're a 15 year old living in your parents' basement, your username screams of pathetic immaturity. What? All of the variants that included the number 69 were taken? 2. Your theory about playing Smoak at 1B to reduce his value is exceedingly obtuse. Playing somebody in a position they're not comfortable with may retard their development. Their is no precedent for this for a reason--because it's a nonsensical idea. The comparison to delaying arbitration isn't remotely appropriate. 3. Your proposed trade for Miguel Cabrera is laughable. Detroit has zero interest in trading him and the package you suggest wouldn't even get their GM to answer the phone. The fact that you're even arguing about what he would do in Safeco is pointless. Why not argue about whether Superman or Batman would be a better centerfielder? 4. Cite the text in which Confucious uttered that phrase "tis...". The quote is regularly attributed to Abraham Lincoln. I've also heard it atributed to Churchill and Twain, among others. If you're going to call somebody a fool for misattributing a quote, back it up. I suspect your actual hands on experience with Confucious is limited at best. |
| 47. By: Chris Crawford on 09-28-2010 23:27:27 Sigh, the comments were going so well here for the past couple of months. We're going to be having a bunch of discussion-type threads going up in the off-season, I hate to think that personal attacks and me making threats and essays are going to dominate the site. Play nice, pleeeease. |
| 48. By: dawgncarolina on 09-28-2010 23:29:39 "Let's just remember that he played in the Kingdome between the ages of 24 and 36. He played in Safeco Field from the ages of 36 to 41. Way to handicap the information "dawgincarolina". I think you're Dave Cameron, aren't you?How many other Seattle natives are in North Carolina and write with such arrogance? If you aren't Dave, you sure have his same flair." LOL. You're really bad at this. As has already been noted, Edgar's numbers at the Dome versus Safeco are irrelevant. What matters is that he hit better on the road from 00-05 than he did at home. Hitters hit better at home. Safeco clearly suppressed his numbers. And no, I'm not Dave Cameron, nor am I even in NC anymore. Jason can vouch for both of those facts, not that either matter. What does matter, however, is that I've clearly proven that you were wrong about Edgar, and you're wrong about Cabrera. Of course, we're not dealing for him, so I suppose that doesn't really matter much either. |
| 49. By: dawgncarolina on 09-28-2010 23:32:30 "Triunfel and Halman are probably equal to Miller and Maybin." LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL And to think I actually thought you were a legit poster. Thanks for the laughs. Sorry for intruding on your schtick. Enjoy yourself. |
| 50. By: marinermutt on 09-28-2010 23:54:56 "Triunfel and Halman are probably equal to Miller and Maybin." According to Baseball America, in 2007, Maybin was the 6th best prospect in baseball while Miller was 10th. Now I know some people don't care for BA, but this at least shows that both were very highly thought of. Jason or Chris could answer this better, but I would guess Triunfel and Halman would both be in the 150-200 range. Maybe a little lower, but certainly not in the top 100. |
| 51. By: marinermutt on 09-29-2010 00:03:03 "Maybe Triunfel, Halman, Lueke, Beavan, and Joh. Chavez for Cabrera and cash." Lueke has talent, but I'm afraid he has no trade value. Other teams will shy away from him just like the M's wished they would have done or at least Mr. Armstrong wished they had done. I hope your right about Chavez, but want to see what he does in AA before I get to excited about numbers put up in the California league. Beavan = Fister with a little more upside. Hopefully he can add velocity as he gets older. |
| 52. By: DKulich44 on 09-29-2010 08:39:06 I'm an idiot for lumping Prince and Cabrera together? "If the Mariners signed (Dunn/Martinez) or traded (Fielder/Cabrera) for a 1B." Pretty sure I read that earlier. Chris sorry if any of my statements were attacks or what not, just defending the position of most people on here trying to be as reasonable as possible. |
| 53. By: maqman on 09-29-2010 11:53:55 Adam, thanks for the interesting and well written series. I have enjoyed them. I also have no argument with the opinions you expressed. Chris, I heartily second your motion to reduce the length of postings. Size does matter in some things to some people but that doesn't necessarily apply to succinct commentary. |
| 54. By: shortstop9 on 09-29-2010 14:33:32 Martinez at C would be huge. Smoak is going to be a great 1B so get a DH to bat cleanup with V-Mart batting 3rd and we could have a decent lineup. |
| 55. By: FelixElRey on 09-29-2010 15:05:01 Jason, Advanced statistics have Liriano as the pitcher with the highest value in the AL or at least top 3. Why hasn't he been mentioned much in the Cy Young discussion? Does he deserve it? |
| 56. By: rjfrik on 09-29-2010 15:08:59 Damn M's always start a mini winning streak the last week of the season to screw themselves out of a higher draft pick. We are clinging on to the number 2 pick right now. We lose all tie breakers so we have to actually be a game ahead of Baltimore, Arizona, KC. The good news is Felix isn't pitching again this year. The bad news is we have won 3 games without him and 4 in a row. What the F. |
| 57. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-29-2010 17:11:37 They lost today, actually, so cheer up. Liriano has less WAR, far less innings pitched, less strikeouts than Felix. Advanced stats like him because his FIP is a half run lower than Felix's. |
| 58. By: rjfrik on 09-30-2010 03:03:38 Yeah I posted that when they had a 5-1 lead. I checked back later and they blew it, which is good. But it's bad that the person that blew it was Cortes. His first bout with adversity I guess. Im curious to see how he bounces back. Another thing. Smoak is smoking the ball lately. Love to see that. Let the kids play and get some L's M's. We have a one game lead over Baltimore. 2 game lead over Arizona. And 3 game lead over K.C. Hope we hang on to it. |
| 59. By: Edman on 10-01-2010 11:23:49 That's what happens with rookies. Part of the learning process is gaining experience with adverse situations. Cortez, Smoak, Mangini, et al, will make mistakes. It's just part of the process. |
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