| By Adam P. Boyd |  | By 09-15-2010 |
When discussing what Jack Zduriencik has done to rebuild the Seattle Mariners since taking over in October of 2008, people often cite the development of the minor league system –- something that Zduriencik himself has less to do with than Tom McNamara, the club's amateur scouting director. When analyzing the former Milwaukee Brewers director of scouting, it is important to remember that aside from signing free agents the most impact the M's general manager has made in terms of changing over the roster has been through trades. And since it has almost been two years since his hire, we though it was time to take a look back and see how he has done in this regard.
Trade 1: December 11, 2008
Seattle Mariners Receive: CF Franklin Gutierrez (+8.6 WAR), OF Endy Chavez (+.7 WAR), RP Aaron
Heilman, SP Maikel Cleto, 1B Mike Carp (+.2 WAR) , CF Ezequiel Carrera, and SP Jason Vargas (+2.5
WAR)
Cleveland Indians Receive: 2B Luis Valbuena (-1.0 WAR), RP Joe Smith
New York Mets Receive: RP JJ Putz (+.1 WAR), CF Jeremy Reed (-.4 WAR), RP Sean Green (-.2 WAR)
Zduriencik opened with a bang, acquiring seven players, sending out four, and helping to reshape the roster
immediately. Since the minor league players have not contributed in the majors much, and Heilman never
suited up for the Mariners, we will focus on players who have actually had an impact on the 25-man roster.
This trade was, obviously, a slam dunk. Zduriencik gave up little, and you can argue he gave away zilch nothing of value, and was able to get a stable of players that have contributed significantly at the big-league level.
While Gutierrez has had a disappointing year after his solid season in 2009, he is still nearly a 3-win player -- a guy who provides plus defense at a premium position and has a bat with some pop.
Chavez was able to provide a few months of plus defense with near-average offense. Vargas has turned himself into a league-average pitcher, and even Carp has chipped in mildly.
Cleto pitched the 2010 season in Advanced-A High Desert and has struggled, suggesting he may ultimately be moved to the bullpen if he cannot figure out his command. Carrera has since been dealt in the deal to acquire Russell Branyan, a win in and of itself.
The M's lost next to nothing with Putz, Green and Reed providing negative value to the Mets. While
Valbuena still could develop into a decent player, any concern that Seattle traded away a potential second
baseman of the future has been mitigated by the fact that in nearly 630 plate appearances for the Indians Valbuena
has managed a paltry .226/.291/.352 triple slash while racking up a -6.9 UZR at 2B and a -5 UZR in limited time at SS.
Result: Huge Win
Trade 2: January 20, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: RP David Aardsma (+2.1 WAR)
Boston Red Sox Receive: SP Fabian Williamson
Since the closer spot had just been vacated by the trade of Putz, Zdurencik moved quickly to shore up the back end of the bullpen by nabbing the former first-round pick out of Rice for a low-level non-prospect who is no longer with the Red Sox organization. Aardsma was quite good in '09,
managing a FIP of 3.01, but has regressed with some poor command this season. Despite that fact, picking up a reliever with late-inning value for next to nothing is always a good trade. Look for him to potentially
be dealt in the coming offseason, but only after he anchored the bullpen for two seasons.
Result: Win
Trade 3: January 28, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: SS Ronny Cedeno (-.7 WAR) and P Garrett Olson (-.9 WAR)
Chicago Cubs Receive: RP Aaron Heilman (+.2 WAR)
Zdurencik flipped Heilman, a league-average relief pitcher, for two players who might have had some
potential left in them -- Cedeno, a former Chicago Cubs prospect with a .930 OPS at Triple-A Iowa, and Olson, a former first-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles. Cedeno's bat never materialized, but he played decent defense for the
Mariners for half a season before being traded to the Pirates.
Olson has been a disappointment; he washed out as a starting pitcher thanks to average stuff and poor command, but has been about average out of the bullpen. A low-risk, potentially high-reward trade that did not work out.
Result: Push
Trade 4: June 28, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: OF Ryan Langerhans (+.9 WAR)
Washington Nationals Receive: 1B/RF Mike Morse (+1.0 WAR)
After Chavez went down with an injury, Zduriencik found himself in need of a competent fourth outfielder and found one in Langerhans, who has provided plus defense at multiple positions, some power and patience at the plate, but poor contact skills which probably means he will never be even average at the plate.
Morse is sort of the opposite of Langerhans -- a guy who can provide average to above average production at the plate, but is a liability defensively. They both have been valuable bench players for their teams.
Result: Push
Trade 5: July 10, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: RP Derrick Saito and P Daniel Cortes
Kansas City Royals Receive: SS Yuniesky Betancourt (-.8 WAR)
Zduriencik managed to wring something out of nothing when he traded Betancourt, an offensive and
defensive liability, for Saito and Cortes. Betancourt has been mildly useful for the Royals this season thanks to his power, but his UZR the past two seasons has been all of -26.5.
Saito missed almost all of 2010 thanks to injury. Cortes came over as a starting pitcher, but his lack of command stalled his development in Double-A. A switch to the bullpen has fast-tracked Cortes to the big leagues; his fastball has
been clocked in the upper-90s and his curveball has been devastatingly effective. The 6-foot-6, 250-pound 23-year-old could land in the Top 10 of Prospect Insider's prospect rankings this winter and could follow that by making the team out of spring training. Getting a back-of-the-bullpen arm for Betancourt can be called nothing other than a good trade, even if Saito stalls as an organizational player.
Result: Win
Trade 6: July 11, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: UT Jack Hannahan (+.6 WAR)
Oakland Athletics Receive: RP Justin Souza
With Beltre hurting at the time, the Mariners had no capable defensive third baseman, a problem they solved by
trading for Hannahan -- a player who might be called the infield version of Langerhans.
A defensive player who played shortstop, first base and third base for the M's, Hannahan has some pop but
weak contact skills -- again, much like Langerhans. Hannahan is a valuable bench player who was acquired for little and Souza has stalled in Double-A, putting up pedestrian numbers.
Result: Win
Trade 7: July 29, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: RP Robert Manuel
Cincinnati Reds Receive: OF Wladimir Balentien (+.7 WAR)
Most Mariners fans know Balentien –- a former top prospect who was unable to make enough contact in the big leagues to be useful. Zduriencik traded him for Manuel, a journeyman reliever who never made an impact for the big league club.
Since Balentien provided some value to the Reds and is currently killing Triple-A pitching -- again -- so this can be called a minor loss, though we have to understand Balentien was out of options and could have been lost for nothing at all via waivers.
Result: Loss
Trade 8: July 29, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: SS Jack Wilson (+0.0 WAR) and SP Ian Snell (+0.0 WAR)
Pittsburgh Pirates Receive: 1B/DH Jeff Clement (-.2 WAR), SP Nathan Adcock, SS Ronny Cedeno (+1.5
WAR), SP Brett Lorin and SP Aaron Pribanic.
This is a trade that, in retrospect, should never have been made. Snell and Wilson have been injured, ineffective, and inept at times. Neither has provided consistent value to the big league club and have cost millions of dollars. Meanwhile, the Pirates got three starting pitching prospects and a shortstop who has actually outperformed Jack Wilson -- though we should note that he's doing on an even worse team than the Mariners have been over the course of a year and half or so, and in the National League where even Pat Burrell can still hit in the middle of a lineup in a pennant race.
This can likely be called Jack's first true mistake, though it's not one that sets the club back much, if at all.
Result: Certain Loss
Trade 9: July 31, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: SP Mauricio Robles and SP Luke French (+.2 WAR)
Detroit Tigers Receive: SP Jarrod Washburn (-.4 WAR)
In the midst of a playoff race, Detroit attempted to bolster their rotation by adding Washburn, who had
been a solid starter for the M's up to that point. Zduriencik was able to get two young starting pitchers for half a season of injured Washburn -- Luke French, a back of the rotation starter, and Robles. Robles has rocketed through the system and is now in Triple-A and a Prospect Insider Top-15 prospect.
Result: Big win
Trade 10: August 19, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: UT Bill Hall (-.4 WAR)
Milwaukee Brewers Receive: RP Ruben Flores
Attempting to capture lightning in a bottle, Zduriencik went back to one of his former players in exchange for a 26-year-old High-A arm. Hall was injured and showed next to nothing for the Mariners, but did not cost anything so this trade is essentially a push.
Result: Push
Year One Verdict
Year one for Zduriencik was a prosperous one on the trade front. The Washburn, Betancourt, and Putz trades
were unmitigated successes, with only one notable miscue (Snell/Wilson). He also made a number of smaller moves that benefitted the team.
Adding a long term CF in Gutierrez, two members of the
current rotation in Vargas and French, a closer in Aardsma and quality additions to the farm system
with some quality prospects (Robles, Cortes, Cleto), Zduriencik was able to move the Mariners closer to contention without doing anything to jeopardize the future of the club.
Even as a first-year GM with no history on which to look back, it's difficult to give Zduriencik anything but an "A" grade for first-year deals.
We'll take a look at year two next week.
grading-jack-zduriencik:-part-i
Comments
The following 23 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: maqman on 09-16-2010 10:05:05 Good review Jason, don't disagree with any of your judgements. I'm still big on GMZ despite all the flak he has been catching lately because he has given me hope of a better future, despite this unmitigated disaster of a season. I'm hoping somebody like the Mets don't offer him their GM slot. The two dummies he reports to are dumb enough to let him go. |
| 2. By: maqman on 09-16-2010 10:06:29 Sorry Adam, should have checked the author's name first. |
| 3. By: Jerry on 09-16-2010 13:08:47 Good review. I'm looking forward to reading the next installment. I really hope that the organization doesn't go with a knee jerk reaction to this season. Sure, there were some mistakes made. But I still think the process is sound. Jack and his cohort deserve at least another year or two to turn this around. Hopefully this Lueke thing doesn't torpedo them. Sure, it was handled very poorly. But I would rather give the team some slack for a poorly handled PR situation than for flawed talent acquisition. Jack is good at the part of his job that is most important: talent acquisition. One other thing: I do think Jack deserves a lot of the credit for the turnaround in the farm system. The guy was a scouting director until he came here, and scouting and player evaluation is clearly his strong suit. He brought over guys that he worked with in the past, and has done a ton to meld sabermetric and traditional methods into the organization. McNamara is a protege, and I think Jack deserves a lot of credit for putting the right guys in the right positions to make great decisions. He may not be instrumental in all the details, but he built the architecture of a great organization. I hope he gets the opportunity to see this thing through. By 2012, this club will be in great shape. They just need to avoid the temptation to change horses midstream after a really disappointing season. |
| 4. By: Lailoken on 09-16-2010 14:56:54 While I agree with most of your great article, I do have a minor quibble about the Snell/Wilson & Hall trades. They took on salary with unnecessary risk when we were still burdened with Silva's contract not to mention other deadwood. Later on Wilson didn't have to be re-signed, Snell could've been non-tendered, & Hall was mostly paid for by the Brewers but that money would've been better spent on other MLB or amateur talent. Still, an A overall. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-16-2010 15:31:19 Snell could not have been non-tendered -- he had guaranteed money for this season at $4.25 million. As for re-signing Wilson, that is completely separate from the trade itself. The M's paid so little to Hall that it's not even worth bringing up, thus not impacting the value of the trade in either direction. |
| 6. By: randallball on 09-16-2010 21:00:25 Nice post and fair grading, Adam. I am actually in the midst of a post very similar to this for my little blog. Grading Jack more on just trades, however. |
| 7. By: Lailoken on 09-16-2010 21:00:30 Fair enough, I was mistaken on Hall & Snell's contract status. In light of the outside shot at making the playoffs in 2009 the trades made some sense. Cedeno was sure playing horrible at the time & Snell had the big AAA game while looking like a classic change-of-scenery player. The money ended up being wasted, but was somewhat justifiable at the time. That extra 4.25 sure could've helped us get a bat this year though as would've the money we ate when trading Hall to the Red Sox. One would assume that whatever money was left on Hall's contract for this year, however neglible, factored into the decision to swap salary for salary in the form of Casey Kotchman too. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-16-2010 21:23:51 Know this, however. 4.25 ml didn't stop the M's from adding a big bat. |
| 9. By: Timberwolf on 09-16-2010 23:24:29 You take chances when you see talent. Snell was worth a look. In year one Jack was looking for down the line talent. That being said, I sure don't want to see Snell back here next year. |
| 10. By: Adam P. Boyd on 09-17-2010 01:57:20 I had/have no real problem with Jack acquiring Snell or Wilson - it would have been a coup if it had panned out. As it stands, it was no major loss. |
| 11. By: jgstecker on 09-17-2010 10:18:52 Trading is an important part of a GM's job, but when it comes to evaluation his trading record probably will have little to do with determining whether Jack keeps his job or not down the road. Zdurenciek has three black marks this year: 1) the overall awful play of his team, 2) the Griffey/Wakamatsu incident, 3) the Lueke/Fusco incident. He may not be able to survive another. The last two particularly incensed Chuck Armstrong, Jack's boss, because both events personally affected him. I think it's safe to say Chuck is not at all happy with Jack.Not a good position to be in. I think were not done seeing the effects of a lack of confidence between the President and the GM. |
| 12. By: Edman on 09-17-2010 12:42:31 #11, I think that assumes a whole lot. No team would be happy about this season. I don't think it's safe to say anything, good or bad. I would say that Jack has taken a hit. But, if there was a true lack of confidence, Jack would have been fired, along with everyone else he hired. Might there need to be a review of how they go about their business? Absolutely, as would any team that slid as far back as they have this year. People really need to stop making stuff up. With all that's gone on, does anyone really need to add to it? BTW, I suggest that people go read Shannon Drayer's latest post on her blog. I think it's a very fair evaluation of what she's observed versus what some want to believe happens with the front office. Some who don't want to believe what she's written, claim the Mariners somehow got her to create propaganda. How silly is that? She's not paid by the M's, and for as long as I've listened to her, she's by far the most objective M's reporter. If it smells, she says so. She doesn't Rick Rizz anything. I know some hate "objective", because is doesn't support their belief system. But, I found it insightful. |
| 13. By: KCMike on 09-17-2010 15:48:37 Since I have seen Yuniesky Betancourt play in person at least 20 times in the last year, I can tell you from personal experience that I am very happy with the trade KC made. Time will tell how the young Seattle pitchers turn out. But as of this moment, this is clearly a loss for Jack's trade record. |
| 14. By: Rudolf on 09-17-2010 16:06:09 Yikes! |
| 15. By: Shawnuel on 09-17-2010 16:45:47 Well, enjoy it while you can KC, because I sincerely doubt this season with the bat was anything but an outlier for Yuni. The power he has is nullified by his complete lack of plate discipline and he's no where close to adequate at the most important defensive position on the field. And about 2.5 million Seattle fans are, most likely, just as happy with the trade as you are. |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-17-2010 17:09:55 KCMike, Unfortunately for you and the rest of Royals nation, you're wrong. Betancourt's been awful, again. Fifteen home runs from a shortstop is nice and all, but his ridiculously pathetic .282 OBP cancels out every one of those home runs and then some. His defense is again terrible -- big shocker there -- and he's been a 0.3 WAR player this season, about what he was in his last three years in Seattle. On top of that, KC paid him $2 million this season, will pay him $3 million in 2011 (M's kick in a mil for the '10 and '11 salaries of $3 and $4 mil total for each year) and there's a $2 million buyout. In no way was the Betancourt trade a loss for Seattle and win for Kansas City. Not in any matter that actually helps baseball teams win games, anyway. The deal could have been Betancourt for a player never to be named and it would have been a win for Zduriencik. Betancourt remains one of the very worst everyday players in baseball. |
| 17. By: safecochatter on 09-18-2010 16:24:25 it's looking like the tuesday game at oklahoma city,is columbus vs tacoma and it is just a one game,winner take all aaa championship? |
| 18. By: STEVEV on 09-18-2010 20:01:37 Seattle had 5 of 6 minor league affiliates in the playoffs, two of them have already won championships (Tacoma and Everett) and one (Clinton) is tied 1-1 in it's championship series going into play on Saturday. I'm really excited about the future of this organization, but as a "street fan" should I? Does being competitive at the lower levels really bode well for the future of the major league club? Even if it isn't as good as it might seem, it's been a whole lot of fun following these kids this summer. |
| 19. By: STEVEV on 09-18-2010 20:11:16 Oh, and I forgot, but to keep things on topic, I agree with Adam's assessment of the first year trades by Jack. I really, really agree with Jason on the Betancourt trade. Nothing that I can add to anything either of them wrote. And as far as the Josh Lueke thing goes, I was a young man once and made some stupid mistakes too. That's how one learns and grows into an experienced person. As long as he truely learns from it. I've seen him pitch at Cheney Stadium several times, though, and would like to see what he can do at the major league level someday. My apoligies for posting twice in a row. |
| 20. By: STEVEV on 09-18-2010 20:44:27 I was wrong, Pulaski made the playoffs too. Six out of six minor league teams to win their respective divisions. Wow! Please tell me this is a good thing. |
| 21. By: Edman on 09-18-2010 20:50:35 Seattle's Arizona League team didn't make the playoffs. How can getting playoff experience at any level, be bad? Of course it's a good thing. |
| 22. By: STEVEV on 09-18-2010 21:04:28 Edman Is that all it means? Not to knock playoff experience, which I agree is always a good thing, but does it mean that Seattle's prospects are at least as good as anybody else's? I hope it means they're better...overall. Or perhaps I should put it another way. Was it just a nice year for Seattle's minor league system? Did these teams win because they have talent on a level that is perhaps BETTER than most other clubs? I want to know that I'm excited for a good reason, the future, and not just because the teams won THIS year. |
| 23. By: Lailoken on 09-22-2010 14:43:40 The VSL & DSL teams made the playoffs too. 8 out of 9 teams went to postseason play. That is amazing. Equally amazing is that only one of the eight won their league's championship. |
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