| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 02-07-2012 |
Looking out at the large landscape of Major League Baseball the Seattle Mariners did not make an impact in free agency this offseason. The prizes of the market, most notably first baseman Prince Fielder, signed with American League contenders, including AL West favorites in Texas and Anaheim.The Mariners, as I wrote after the Detroit Tigers landed Fielder, will stay the course. That course is player development, drafting, making impact trades and aggressively pursuing the right free agents.
I noted in the piece linked above that the club is on the right track, the same path taken to prominence by the Texas Rangers, the two-time defending American League Champions, and the one Alex Anthopoulos is driving on in Toronto.
At some point, however, GM Jack Zduriencik and his staff will likely have to land a pricey free agent or two if they want to win the World Series and compete at such a level for a long period of time.
It's extremely rare to do what the Tampa Bay Rays are doing right now, and in the end there's no reason the Mariners have to do so. They bring in revenues the Rays never have, even with the sinking attendance.
The future free agent market is a big, giant unknown. We do know who is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and we know who has option years that could keep them signed with their current clubs. We don't know who will receive contract extensions or which might be traded to a team more willing to extend their contracts. We just don't know any of that.
We can, however, speculate, and discuss the possibilities, so let's do just that.
2012-13 (following the '12 season)
The market next offseason will not be great, and the crop could shrink if key players sign extensions, as a few are likely to do. There may be some opportunities for the M's, however.
Among those that could become free agents are Kevin Youkilis, Curtis Granderson, Stephen Drew, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann and David Wright, none of which are very likely at all to have their options declined unless it involves a new contract. Those will not be noted below. This is not a full list of free agents, just those that may be able to make a major impact going forward due to offense, defense or pitching.
Position Players
Miguel Montero, C -- Arizona Diamondbacks
Josh Hamilton, OF -- Texas Rangers
Mike Napoli, C/1B/DH -- Texas Rangers
B.J. Upton, CF -- Tampa Bay Rays
Michael Bourn, CF -- Atlanta Braves
Andre Ethier, OF -- Los Angeles Dodgers
Shane Victorino, CF -- Philadelphia Phillies
Erick Aybar, SS -- Los Angeles Angels
As you can see, the pickings are slim. Montero and the Diamondbacks are working on a multi-year extension and none of the other candidates are ideal for one reason or the other. Napoli, another below-average catcher who is also hitting the age range where catchers hit the wall, is more of a DH or first baseman.
Upton appears to be a disappointment offensively, Hamilton is a major injury risk, Ethier is on the Raul Ibanez career path and both Bourn and Victorino are above-average defensive centerfielders that belong at the top of the batting order -- not in the middle.
The M's could be on the search for a Bourn or Victorino, however, if Franklin Gutierrez doesn't start hitting with consistency.
Starting Pitchers
Clearly, there are more impact pitchers available then there are hitters next year, which doesn't bode well for the Mariners' further attempts to get better in the run scoring department. In addition, a heavy pitching market doesn't help a club such as Seattle trade young pitching for a hitter -- the way they did with Michael Pineda and Jesus Montero.
2013-14
This class has the potential to be pretty darned good. The problem, as previously stated, is that there will be extensions signed and trades made that lead to other contract extensions, eliminating a good portion of this crop.
Also, if any of those that had options for 2013 that were declined and became free agents after the '12 campaign, they could sign multi-year deal before the '13 season and not be eligible for free agency prior to the '14 schedule.
After assuming that most or all of the true impact players would have their options picked up, they now land as free agents after 2013, barring an extension.
Position Players
Huff has an option that I do not expect to be picked up by the Giants. Utley could easily be extended, though he'll have to stay healthy to earn such a contract. Whether or not the Braves will give McCann, who will be 30 prior to the 2014 season, a huge extension remains to be seen.
Wright will be 31 at this point, but could be a worthy recipient of a contract like the one the Rangers gave Adrian Beltre.
Youkilis, in my opinion, is merely adequate at third base right now but need to play first to help him stay healthy and most effective. He could be the DH in Boston after David Ortiz hangs up the spikes.
Votto is the big prize here, and it appears, again, that the Yankees and Red Sox will not be players, nor will the Phillies. Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard are all signed beyond 2014 (all are signed through 2016 or longer), which suggests Teixeira will have to become a DH for the Yankees to get involved and it's difficult to buy Gonzalez moving off first base to make room.
The Canadian-born Votto is a natural fit in Toronto, or even Seattle. By that time, both clubs could be strongly trending toward contention and ready to pony up a lucrative, long-term deal.
Morneau's situation could get interesting as he battles back from concussion symptoms, and the contract scenarios involving Gordon and Choo are certainly worth following.
Starting Pitchers
The Angels, since their winter spending spree, are likely to do what they need to do to keep at least Haren, if not both Haren and Santana. Floyd is likely to be traded before he hits free agency as the Sox continue their odd rebuilding efforts. Garza, the subject of trade talks right now, is likely to be pitching elsewhere this time next year.
Carpenter's age and Wainwright's recovery from elbow surgery are major factors. Lincecum will certainly be a target of any and all contenders, including the big spenders in the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Rangers. At this stage, it's difficult to see the Mariners getting involved, but things can change.
While Votto is the big name looking forward, there's a chance he stays in Cincinnati, and if Justin Smoak, in 2012 and 2013, hits for six months the way he did for the two bookend months in 2011, the M's needs won't be in the market for a first baseman.
The M's need outfielders, including a future centerfielder, and it's a position they lack in their farm system. They also lack a potential above-average regular at catcher, assuming Montero fails to make fools of all 14 scouts I polled on the kid's defensive abilities.
Third base is also an opportunity with Francisco Martinez the top prospect at the position. He comes with a lot of risk and a two-year -- or more -- waiting period.
The lack of impact position players likely being legitimate free agent targets for the Seattle Mariners could lead to more trades like the one the club made this offseason that landed them Jesus Montero.
The thing is, the chances they do what the Rays are doing aren't very good, especially with the draft classes being mediocre the past three Junes, which means they'll have to land at least one or two big-name players on the market if they are to get where they want to go.
future-free-agents-and-building-the-m\'s
Comments
The following 32 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-07-2012 15:46:42 Great article, Jason. One question, Chief: when you say "especially with the draft classes being mediocre the past three Junes"...do you mean the Mariners crop or the talent overall in those classes? (I thought 2010 was a pretty blasted good draft year for the Mariners, personally. And if I'm being asked, 2011's class has a chance to be just as good. But those are only my opinion.) |
| 2. By: jgstecker on 02-07-2012 16:44:28 I have a feeling I'll still be cursing Victor Martinez's ACL ia few years from now. Its very possible that the Fielder sweepstakes was a close as we'll get to an impact free agent signing for a few years. Speaking of mediocre drafts, remember when Bob Fontaine was the bees knees around here? We've come a long ways. |
| 3. By: cc80rm84 on 02-07-2012 16:45:04 With what you have just lined out for the Mariners chances on getting another bat through free agency and the much more abundant crop of free agent pitchers available, did the Mariners make a mistake taking Hultzen over Rendon/Starling/Lindor etc? |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 17:58:49 The OVERALL classes, dawg. The M's have done quite well. CC, No. You take the best player, and while I still believe Hultzen was NOT that, the reason I am more than OK with that pick is because there is a great chance that the two best players on the board were Starling and Bundy -- neither of which were likely signable for Seattle. Both players went where they and their families preferred they go. Lindor... for me, I would have taken him, but I can see the Hultzen argument. He's ready now. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 18:07:28 I guess I didn't address Rendon ... From what I heard, the M's weren't on him. It was Lindor and Hultzen, and I don't blame them. Rendon has major questions to answer. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 18:24:36 jg, Certainly. It's strange how poorly Fontaine did in Seattle versus his solid successes in previous drafts with two other clubs. That tells me he did not make the picks. |
| 7. By: zrininger on 02-07-2012 18:51:44 Jason, You mentioned the M's lacking OF depth in the minors. Do you think that Jorge Soler is a solution? Seems if they sign him and could draft a guy like Byron Buxton they would be looking prety good in the out field. |
| 8. By: Rudolf on 02-07-2012 19:02:11 IMO, Hultzen is gonna be nails. He was a smart pick for multiple reasons and I'm stoked to watch him pitch. I think we should sign Grienke next year with Ichiro's $$. Give him the $110/6 contract. That's a rotation of Felix, Grienke, Hultzen, (the rest). Now we're set at rotation for Felix's last two years. If Felix won't resign, we'll still have an ace in Grienke from 2015 on. Grienke is probably the best of all the free agent pitchers who are likely to see free agency the next two years. If we run out a wicked rotation and some of our young hitters develop, I think we can grab a hitter or two off of your list and have a stellar team. Payroll will be under 100 million. Make some trades. We're in business. |
| 9. By: KingFelix on 02-07-2012 19:22:18 Rudolf, I agree, we should go hard and get Grienke and then we could use a trade chip like Walker to get another young stud bat. It would be fun to see a rotation of Felix, Grienke, Hultzen, Noesi and Paxton. |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 19:22:39 zrininger, I have never seen Soler, and haven't heard the M's being interested. He's a prospect, though, so not a solution. Same with Buxton. The M's need outfielders before either player will be ready for the majors. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 19:24:34 Rudolf, There's nothing wrong with having a No. 2 starter that can probably be a 3 right now, just months after the draft. Whether he was the perfect pick or not, he's good, will help, and soon. Greinke isn't worth 18-20 mil per year, IMO. He's had one ace season. |
| 12. By: valencia on 02-07-2012 19:49:13 I think Ellsbury and Lincecum make the most sense. Both from the PNW, likely to hit FA, fill the CF hole, fill the SP5 hole, and since it's 2014 we'll still have enough to sign a Wright, Cabrera or Votto if we wanted to. |
| 13. By: krob4mvp on 02-07-2012 20:25:52 Jason, I am very intrigued with Francisco Martinez. However, he isn't a player I know a lot about besides the tidbits I read or hear about. I was wondering if Jhonny Peralta may be a decent comparison to him? A response would be much appreciated. Thanks |
| 14. By: short on 02-07-2012 22:02:20 Buying Ellsbury and Lincecum on the open market is going to cost something like 50 million a season, assuming they continue to play close to their career record thus far. I sure hope the M's have that kind of scratch, but they sure don't act like it. Both those players' franchises have money and have had success. I doubt either leaves. |
| 15. By: mkries2 on 02-07-2012 22:27:32 Hey Jason- Interesting lists to look at. The M's most bare position in terms of major league and minor league talent is third base, in my opinion. Unless you have a ton of faith in Seager's ability to hit at an above league-average level or Vinnie Catricala's ability can stick at third, which I don't, the M's are probably going to have to look outside the org at that position. There isn't much available in FA next year, and I doubt that Zimmerman leaves DC when his contract expires after 2013. Therefore, it seems like 3B is a position to target in their next big trade. A guy that seems like he could be had is Chase Headley. He's no world beater, but he seems like an interesting guy for the Mariners because he hits left handed. Could you see Zduriencik targeting him either at the trade deadline or next offseason? What kind of trade offer could the Padres demand? Are they even interested in dealing him? |
| 16. By: Bugeater on 02-08-2012 01:12:37 2 words.....Grady Sizemore. Injury problem is overblown, he did not have recurring problems just a string of bad breaks. We were scared off by alleged injury problems when it appeared Justin Upton was available, don't make the same mistake. Even if he is not what he was at 24, he could give you a solid left field defense, .300+ average 25 HR and more. Who else on the Free Agent list next year could be even close. If he plays 120-140 games this year, PULL THE TRIGGER!!!! The lineup becomes Ackley-Guti-Sizemore-Montero-Smoak- Carp and the rest. WOO HOO, when do the Playoff and WS tickets go on sale!! |
| 17. By: Gibbo on 02-08-2012 09:53:35 Great piece! 3B seems to be the biggest issue for us potentially. I wondered if we could take a flyer on Mark Reynolds this winter? We have the cash to absorb some of his money, I think you also look for a blocked prospect like Matt Dominguez in Florida. He is a glove first guy but I would have him in AAA and have Seager there too. Let Seager play 3B, 2B and get some reps in at LF to become more of a utility guy. Any thoughts on if Seager could handle some corner OF time? Start the year with Reynolds and Figgins on the roster with Seager and Dominguez ready to come up and replace them if and when needed. Alternatively anyone know of any other blocked 3B prospects that might be close to ready? |
| 18. By: Rudolf on 02-08-2012 11:07:25 2014 Line-up: Victorino- CF Ackley- 2B Montero- C/DH Smoak- 1B Catricala/Carp- LF Swisher- RF Molina- C Liddi/Seager/Martinez- 3B Franklin- SS Felix Greinke Hultzen Paxton Walker/Noesi/Beaven/Furbush * Sign: Victorino, Swisher, Molina, Greinke * 90 million payroll I'm not saying this is the best way, but it is a simple route to a competitive team. Three players should hit free agency; Molina may not. We would have plenty of assets to deal and some of our minor leaguers should surprise. Swisher wouldn't require a long-term deal. Power up and down the line-up. Defense would be just okay, but everything else says playoff contender. Future looks bright even without Fielder or Votto. |
| 19. By: valencia on 02-08-2012 11:49:19 Ellsbury's a Boras client and Lincecum just extended his arb years so it's likely they both test FA. Yeah it would cost $45M but our payroll would still be around $80M. Another thing to consider is a Paxton for Rendon trade if Zimmerman extends with the Nats. Espinosa is pretty good at 2B, and the Nats have no corner OF room, so they could consider trading Rendon for a young power arm. Assuming of course Rendon is healthy (and hitting with power) and Paxton is Pineda-esque. |
| 20. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-08-2012 11:53:22 I like Casper Wells chances of being here in 2014 a lot more than Swisher's. |
| 21. By: rjfrik on 02-08-2012 12:17:37 I'm pretty excited for this lineup come 2014-2015. All internally. Catcher Jesus Montero First Base Justin Smoak Second Base Dustin Ackley Third Base Francisco Martinez Shortstop Nick Franklin Left Field Vinnie Catricala Center Field Trayvon Robinson Right Field Phillips Castillo Designated Hitter Guillermo Pimentel No. 1 Starter Felix Hernandez No. 2 Starter Taijuan Walker No. 3 Starter Danny Hultzen No. 4 Starter James Paxton No. 5 Starter Hector Noesi Closer Chance Ruffin |
| 22. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-08-2012 14:05:59 That does look pretty awesome. However I think Wells is eventually gonna be an All-Star on this team. I like his chances of being just as big of a contributor to Justin Smoak or Montero. Laugh if you will, I know he's not graded out that high, but for me personally he's got that IT factor. I like his defense and right handed power. I think he's got the potential to put up Corey Hart stat lines. |
| 23. By: Rudolf on 02-08-2012 15:03:26 I like your optimism for Wells. He'd sure be younger and cheaper than a guy like Swisher. I'm not quite as bullish on his prowess, however, and will take the wait-n-see approach. Castillo and Pimental would need to make tremendous strides to make it here by 2014-15. I'd bet on 2017. They would be like 22 and 23 years old by then, respectively. Not sold at all on Robinson, as a hitter or a CF. I think we need to spend some FA dollars on outfielders (or trade) over the next two years. Guys on the wrong side of 30 would be fine. We don't need an entire team of homegrown guys under 25. |
| 24. By: valencia on 02-08-2012 18:49:25 Casper Wells looks like a potential Matt Joyce to me. They're both from Detroit's system too. I think he's going to out hit Carp this year, he has better patience/contact with equal power and better defense. I don't want a player on the wrong side of 30 unless we absolutely need him. 30+ year olds are ticking time bombs who can regress any minute. |
| 25. By: Lombardie360 on 02-09-2012 09:18:31 Does anyone else read this and just think "Ah, Fack!" I look at the list and can't honestly get excited about any of them. I know its way early and all speculation, but does anyone else see a player that not only seems to fit, but gives you a first impression of "yeah I could see them realistically being here". Forget a couple signings, I don't see one. Again, I know it's all hypothetical water cooler talk, early and pointless to get worked up about. But this article really lays out just how difficult this process is going to continue to be. |
| 26. By: d2ret on 02-09-2012 11:51:03 Re: 21 That roster or something close to it will be fun and exciting. Seager and Wells are in there as well... One of the guys we drafted last year will probably be our everyday catcher, unless Littlewood develops into the position. I agree on the optimism for Wells. Very smart guy. His swing looks compact, and short to the ball, for a right handed hitter. Not too much stride, but generates good power. I like his swing a lot from the right side. I dont know how well he covers the outer half... What do scouts say about Wells? |
| 27. By: d2ret on 02-09-2012 11:55:59 BTW rjfrik, Add Buxton or Merrero, and that team looks super fun to watch grow and play together. Robinson 4th OF on a real good team |
| 28. By: d2ret on 02-09-2012 12:10:25 I kind of think we'll draft Marrero based on his quick path to Safeco, apparent plus defense, and leadership. I havent read anything that indicates Buxton will be as tough to sign as Starling was last year, so he might be the guy too. Unless we really want pitching again... which wouldnt be terrible btw |
| 29. By: Rudolf on 02-09-2012 12:13:11 @ 25 You definitely have a glass half empty view. It will always be a challenge to lure FA to Seattle, but we'll have the $$ to overpay if needs be. The key to all of it is the development of Ackley, Smoak, and Montero. Perhaps throw Catricala and Franklin in there. Ackley/Smoak/Montero could be a legit 3-4-5 in two years. They have about as good a chance as any young core in ML, IMO. If that happens, we don't need to worry about the studs like Votto. We could supplement them with good outfielders on 2-3 year contracts and continue to build an amazing rotation. I'm optimistic about our young core. By 2014 they should be settled into the league and producing. The notion of Ellsbury, Votto, Hamilton, Cruz, Zimmerman, etc, coming to Seattle is hard to imagine, I agree. I don't think we need those guys. Players like Victorino, Bourn, Morales, Choo, Wright, Hart, Ethier... they'll take the $$ if we want to pay them, especially if we improve and look like a serious up-and-comer. They will be the supplemental pieces around our core. Pitchers will always consider Seattle. Greinke and Lincecum are real possibilities. As long as management is willing to pump the payroll back up, we're going to have some fun building toward 2014. |
| 30. By: Juan Valdez on 02-09-2012 18:50:58 I don't have a problem with the Hultzen pick, but why was he picked over Trevor Bauer? Hultzen is a nice enough pitcher, but it seems like every time you turn around people are talking about his lack of upside. Bauer, on the other hand, is said to have true top-of-the-rotation potential. When do we get our first post about the 2012 draft? |
| 31. By: rjfrik on 02-10-2012 11:50:15 Just an FYI guys: That list in 21 was directly copied and pasted from BA's Mariners top ten prospect rankings page. It really was more of a way to show everyone that we aren't as doomed as some think we are on here and we have a pretty good farm system. I agree that TRob isn't the answer in CF, that we would be lucky to get one (let alone both) of Castillo/Pimintell to be up and productive by then and that Wells will most likely be starting in 14 and 15. On the draft front. To me Marrero would be to much of a reach at #3 in this years draft. Yes he is the best college position prospect as of right now, but it's one of the weaker classes for college position players in recent memory. I think it's Buxton or a pitcher and I'm just praying that Buxton doesn't play himself into the top 2 spots so we can have that choice at 3. But I have a bad feeling he will and if I had to guess right now who we would draft this year it would be a pitcher. (again) Anyways, I think the future is very bright. |
| 32. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-10-2012 19:53:25 I'm actually ok with drafting another pitcher as well. Jack seems to be pretty good at picking them. If we get another one in this draft the. You've got Erasmo Ramirez and James Paxton look pretty in a trade for a bat. |
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