|By Jason A. Churchill||By 02-07-2012|
|1. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-07-2012 15:46:42|
Great article, Jason.
One question, Chief: when you say "especially with the draft classes being mediocre the past three Junes"...do you mean the Mariners crop or the talent overall in those classes?
(I thought 2010 was a pretty blasted good draft year for the Mariners, personally. And if I'm being asked, 2011's class has a chance to be just as good. But those are only my opinion.)
|2. By: jgstecker on 02-07-2012 16:44:28|
I have a feeling I'll still be cursing Victor Martinez's ACL ia few years from now. Its very possible that the Fielder sweepstakes was a close as we'll get to an impact free agent signing for a few years.
Speaking of mediocre drafts, remember when Bob Fontaine was the bees knees around here? We've come a long ways.
|3. By: cc80rm84 on 02-07-2012 16:45:04|
With what you have just lined out for the Mariners chances on getting another bat through free agency and the much more abundant crop of free agent pitchers available, did the Mariners make a mistake taking Hultzen over Rendon/Starling/Lindor etc?
|4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 17:58:49|
The OVERALL classes, dawg. The M's have done quite well.
No. You take the best player, and while I still believe Hultzen was NOT that, the reason I am more than OK with that pick is because there is a great chance that the two best players on the board were Starling and Bundy -- neither of which were likely signable for Seattle. Both players went where they and their families preferred they go.
Lindor... for me, I would have taken him, but I can see the Hultzen argument. He's ready now.
|5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 18:07:28|
I guess I didn't address Rendon ... From what I heard, the M's weren't on him. It was Lindor and Hultzen, and I don't blame them. Rendon has major questions to answer.
|6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 18:24:36|
Certainly. It's strange how poorly Fontaine did in Seattle versus his solid successes in previous drafts with two other clubs.
That tells me he did not make the picks.
|7. By: zrininger on 02-07-2012 18:51:44|
You mentioned the M's lacking OF depth in the minors. Do you think that Jorge Soler is a solution? Seems if they sign him and could draft a guy like Byron Buxton they would be looking prety good in the out field.
|8. By: Rudolf on 02-07-2012 19:02:11|
IMO, Hultzen is gonna be nails. He was a smart pick for multiple reasons and I'm stoked to watch him pitch.
I think we should sign Grienke next year with Ichiro's $$. Give him the $110/6 contract.
That's a rotation of Felix, Grienke, Hultzen, (the rest). Now we're set at rotation for Felix's last two years. If Felix won't resign, we'll still have an ace in Grienke from 2015 on. Grienke is probably the best of all the free agent pitchers who are likely to see free agency the next two years.
If we run out a wicked rotation and some of our young hitters develop, I think we can grab a hitter or two off of your list and have a stellar team. Payroll will be under 100 million. Make some trades. We're in business.
|9. By: KingFelix on 02-07-2012 19:22:18|
I agree, we should go hard and get Grienke and then we could use a trade chip like Walker to get another young stud bat. It would be fun to see a rotation of Felix, Grienke, Hultzen, Noesi and Paxton.
|10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 19:22:39|
I have never seen Soler, and haven't heard the M's being interested. He's a prospect, though, so not a solution. Same with Buxton. The M's need outfielders before either player will be ready for the majors.
|11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-07-2012 19:24:34|
There's nothing wrong with having a No. 2 starter that can probably be a 3 right now, just months after the draft. Whether he was the perfect pick or not, he's good, will help, and soon.
Greinke isn't worth 18-20 mil per year, IMO. He's had one ace season.
|12. By: valencia on 02-07-2012 19:49:13|
I think Ellsbury and Lincecum make the most sense. Both from the PNW, likely to hit FA, fill the CF hole, fill the SP5 hole, and since it's 2014 we'll still have enough to sign a Wright, Cabrera or Votto if we wanted to.
|13. By: krob4mvp on 02-07-2012 20:25:52|
I am very intrigued with Francisco Martinez. However, he isn't a player I know a lot about besides the tidbits I read or hear about. I was wondering if Jhonny Peralta may be a decent comparison to him? A response would be much appreciated. Thanks
|14. By: short on 02-07-2012 22:02:20|
Buying Ellsbury and Lincecum on the open market is going to cost something like 50 million a season, assuming they continue to play close to their career record thus far. I sure hope the M's have that kind of scratch, but they sure don't act like it. Both those players' franchises have money and have had success. I doubt either leaves.
|15. By: mkries2 on 02-07-2012 22:27:32|
Interesting lists to look at. The M's most bare position in terms of major league and minor league talent is third base, in my opinion. Unless you have a ton of faith in Seager's ability to hit at an above league-average level or Vinnie Catricala's ability can stick at third, which I don't, the M's are probably going to have to look outside the org at that position. There isn't much available in FA next year, and I doubt that Zimmerman leaves DC when his contract expires after 2013.
Therefore, it seems like 3B is a position to target in their next big trade. A guy that seems like he could be had is Chase Headley. He's no world beater, but he seems like an interesting guy for the Mariners because he hits left handed. Could you see Zduriencik targeting him either at the trade deadline or next offseason? What kind of trade offer could the Padres demand? Are they even interested in dealing him?
|16. By: Bugeater on 02-08-2012 01:12:37|
2 words.....Grady Sizemore. Injury problem is overblown, he did not have recurring problems just a string of bad breaks. We were scared off by alleged injury problems when it appeared Justin Upton was available, don't make the same mistake. Even if he is not what he was at 24, he could give you a solid left field defense, .300+ average 25 HR and more. Who else on the Free Agent list next year could be even close. If he plays 120-140 games this year, PULL THE TRIGGER!!!! The lineup becomes Ackley-Guti-Sizemore-Montero-Smoak- Carp and the rest. WOO HOO, when do the Playoff and WS tickets go on sale!!
|17. By: Gibbo on 02-08-2012 09:53:35|
Great piece! 3B seems to be the biggest issue for us potentially. I wondered if we could take a flyer on Mark Reynolds this winter? We have the cash to absorb some of his money, I think you also look for a blocked prospect like Matt Dominguez in Florida. He is a glove first guy but I would have him in AAA and have Seager there too. Let Seager play 3B, 2B and get some reps in at LF to become more of a utility guy.
Any thoughts on if Seager could handle some corner OF time?
Start the year with Reynolds and Figgins on the roster with Seager and Dominguez ready to come up and replace them if and when needed.
Alternatively anyone know of any other blocked 3B prospects that might be close to ready?
|18. By: Rudolf on 02-08-2012 11:07:25|
* Sign: Victorino, Swisher, Molina, Greinke
* 90 million payroll
I'm not saying this is the best way, but it is a simple route to a competitive team. Three players should hit free agency; Molina may not. We would have plenty of assets to deal and some of our minor leaguers should surprise. Swisher wouldn't require a long-term deal. Power up and down the line-up. Defense would be just okay, but everything else says playoff contender.
Future looks bright even without Fielder or Votto.
|19. By: valencia on 02-08-2012 11:49:19|
Ellsbury's a Boras client and Lincecum just extended his arb years so it's likely they both test FA. Yeah it would cost $45M but our payroll would still be around $80M.
Another thing to consider is a Paxton for Rendon trade if Zimmerman extends with the Nats. Espinosa is pretty good at 2B, and the Nats have no corner OF room, so they could consider trading Rendon for a young power arm. Assuming of course Rendon is healthy (and hitting with power) and Paxton is Pineda-esque.
|20. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-08-2012 11:53:22|
I like Casper Wells chances of being here in 2014 a lot more than Swisher's.
|21. By: rjfrik on 02-08-2012 12:17:37|
I'm pretty excited for this lineup come 2014-2015. All internally.
Catcher Jesus Montero
First Base Justin Smoak
Second Base Dustin Ackley
Third Base Francisco Martinez
Shortstop Nick Franklin
Left Field Vinnie Catricala
Center Field Trayvon Robinson
Right Field Phillips Castillo
Designated Hitter Guillermo Pimentel
No. 1 Starter Felix Hernandez
No. 2 Starter Taijuan Walker
No. 3 Starter Danny Hultzen
No. 4 Starter James Paxton
No. 5 Starter Hector Noesi
Closer Chance Ruffin
|22. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-08-2012 14:05:59|
That does look pretty awesome. However I think Wells is eventually gonna be an All-Star on this team. I like his chances of being just as big of a contributor to Justin Smoak or Montero. Laugh if you will, I know he's not graded out that high, but for me personally he's got that IT factor. I like his defense and right handed power. I think he's got the potential to put up Corey Hart stat lines.
|23. By: Rudolf on 02-08-2012 15:03:26|
I like your optimism for Wells. He'd sure be younger and cheaper than a guy like Swisher. I'm not quite as bullish on his prowess, however, and will take the wait-n-see approach.
Castillo and Pimental would need to make tremendous strides to make it here by 2014-15. I'd bet on 2017. They would be like 22 and 23 years old by then, respectively.
Not sold at all on Robinson, as a hitter or a CF.
I think we need to spend some FA dollars on outfielders (or trade) over the next two years. Guys on the wrong side of 30 would be fine. We don't need an entire team of homegrown guys under 25.
|24. By: valencia on 02-08-2012 18:49:25|
Casper Wells looks like a potential Matt Joyce to me. They're both from Detroit's system too. I think he's going to out hit Carp this year, he has better patience/contact with equal power and better defense.
I don't want a player on the wrong side of 30 unless we absolutely need him. 30+ year olds are ticking time bombs who can regress any minute.
|25. By: Lombardie360 on 02-09-2012 09:18:31|
Does anyone else read this and just think "Ah, Fack!"
I look at the list and can't honestly get excited about any of them. I know its way early and all speculation, but does anyone else see a player that not only seems to fit, but gives you a first impression of "yeah I could see them realistically being here". Forget a couple signings, I don't see one. Again, I know it's all hypothetical water cooler talk, early and pointless to get worked up about. But this article really lays out just how difficult this process is going to continue to be.
|26. By: d2ret on 02-09-2012 11:51:03|
That roster or something close to it will be fun and exciting. Seager and Wells are in there as well... One of the guys we drafted last year will probably be our everyday catcher, unless Littlewood develops into the position.
I agree on the optimism for Wells. Very smart guy.
His swing looks compact, and short to the ball, for a right handed hitter. Not too much stride, but generates good power.
I like his swing a lot from the right side. I dont know how well he covers the outer half...
What do scouts say about Wells?
|27. By: d2ret on 02-09-2012 11:55:59|
Add Buxton or Merrero, and that team looks super fun to watch grow and play together. Robinson 4th OF on a real good team
|28. By: d2ret on 02-09-2012 12:10:25|
I kind of think we'll draft Marrero based on his quick path to Safeco, apparent plus defense, and leadership.
I havent read anything that indicates Buxton will be as tough to sign as Starling was last year, so he might be the guy too.
Unless we really want pitching again... which wouldnt be terrible btw
|29. By: Rudolf on 02-09-2012 12:13:11|
@ 25 You definitely have a glass half empty view. It will always be a challenge to lure FA to Seattle, but we'll have the $$ to overpay if needs be.
The key to all of it is the development of Ackley, Smoak, and Montero. Perhaps throw Catricala and Franklin in there. Ackley/Smoak/Montero could be a legit 3-4-5 in two years. They have about as good a chance as any young core in ML, IMO. If that happens, we don't need to worry about the studs like Votto. We could supplement them with good outfielders on 2-3 year contracts and continue to build an amazing rotation. I'm optimistic about our young core. By 2014 they should be settled into the league and producing.
The notion of Ellsbury, Votto, Hamilton, Cruz, Zimmerman, etc, coming to Seattle is hard to imagine, I agree. I don't think we need those guys. Players like Victorino, Bourn, Morales, Choo, Wright, Hart, Ethier... they'll take the $$ if we want to pay them, especially if we improve and look like a serious up-and-comer. They will be the supplemental pieces around our core.
Pitchers will always consider Seattle. Greinke and Lincecum are real possibilities.
As long as management is willing to pump the payroll back up, we're going to have some fun building toward 2014.
|30. By: Juan Valdez on 02-09-2012 18:50:58|
I don't have a problem with the Hultzen pick, but why was he picked over Trevor Bauer? Hultzen is a nice enough pitcher, but it seems like every time you turn around people are talking about his lack of upside. Bauer, on the other hand, is said to have true top-of-the-rotation potential.
When do we get our first post about the 2012 draft?
|31. By: rjfrik on 02-10-2012 11:50:15|
Just an FYI guys: That list in 21 was directly copied and pasted from BA's Mariners top ten prospect rankings page. It really was more of a way to show everyone that we aren't as doomed as some think we are on here and we have a pretty good farm system.
I agree that TRob isn't the answer in CF, that we would be lucky to get one (let alone both) of Castillo/Pimintell to be up and productive by then and that Wells will most likely be starting in 14 and 15.
On the draft front. To me Marrero would be to much of a reach at #3 in this years draft. Yes he is the best college position prospect as of right now, but it's one of the weaker classes for college position players in recent memory. I think it's Buxton or a pitcher and I'm just praying that Buxton doesn't play himself into the top 2 spots so we can have that choice at 3. But I have a bad feeling he will and if I had to guess right now who we would draft this year it would be a pitcher. (again)
Anyways, I think the future is very bright.
|32. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-10-2012 19:53:25|
I'm actually ok with drafting another pitcher as well. Jack seems to be pretty good at picking them. If we get another one in this draft the. You've got Erasmo Ramirez and James Paxton look pretty in a trade for a bat.
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