| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-04-2012 |
Several weeks ago I tweeted that the Seattle Mariners and right-hander Felix Hernandez were having serious talks about a contract extension and that something could get done relatively soon. The "relatively soon" part didn't come to fruition exactly when it seemed it might at the time, but Tuesday multiple reports -- a tweet by CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman and a report by USA Today -- surfaced saying the two sides are closing in a long-term extension, and have been working on it for weeks.
There doesn't appear to be a lot of doubt at this stage that Hernandez will receive a huge deal from the Mariners to stay beyond 2014. The timing could be linked to Zack Greinke's free agency. Whatever Greinke gets, which could end up in the $150-160 million range, Hernandez will get more per year and more years.
Using these kinds of deals as a barometer, Hernandez could be in line for a deal worth $200 million over eight seasons. That's a metric F-ton of dough and it's always a risk to hand pitchers enormous money, but if there's one ace in baseball worth it, it's King Felix.
Hernandez also could sign a shorter extension, perhaps four or five years in length, that allowed him to test free agency at a time when he could get one more big contract with all the big-market clubs getting involved.
The M's and Michael Bourn
Sometime about 10 hours ago -- around noon Tuesday -- I started chasing information on the Mariners being linked to centerfielder Michael Bourn.
The reports simply stated interest, and some industry contacts seem to see it as a real possibility, based on the fact that Seattle has some money and Bourn doesn't appear to have a fit in a big market.
The Reds and Phillies are also out looking for outfield help -- center field in particular -- while the Mariners' needs don't include speed and defense, two-thirds of Bourn's value on the baseball field.
He does get on base, though, but his career .339 mark is far from impressive and he turns 30 later this month. Bourn is exactly the type of player that won't age well in terms of production because he will lose speed and he counts on an awful lot to put up the numbers he does.
Unless he settles for four years and $45 million, I don't see Bourn as much of a value -- there's little chance he posts the 6.0 bWAR and 6.4 fWAR he posted in 2012 on a regular basis.
Furthermore, he's not what the Mariners lack, and only adds to the issues the club has making contact. Bourn, despite being a leadoff hitter with OBPs of .348, .349 and .363 the past three seasons, has struck out in more than 20 percent of his plate appearances in his career, including 295 combined over the last two seasons. All this while hitting for no power -- the nine home runs he hit this past season are a career high by five and he's posted a slugging percentage over .400 just once in his career.
felix-extension,-michael-bourn
Comments
The following 18 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Paul Martin on 12-04-2012 22:05:17 Regarding King Felix, pay the man and do it soon! I would rather have Swisher than Bourn because he can also play 1B and his numbers are better. With Boston out of the mix it should be easier to sign him, unless Baltimore or an unknown team gets in the mix. If they can't get Swisher then Bourn could be a 2nd option. He is better than anything they have and could bat lead off... |
| 2. By: Docmilo on 12-04-2012 22:48:38 Saunders is a better player than Bourn next year. Bourn from this point onward is barely better than Brandon Ryan. I'm confident Jack is talking everyone up to keep the price on Hamilton down. |
| 3. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-04-2012 22:55:24 I wouldn't be terribly upset if we signed Bourn. I that our money could be used better elsewhere. Swisher is looking more and more like a realistic option. I'd rather have him than what it would take to get Hamilton. Glad that Z is working hard to get Felix nailed down. I've heard a lot of rosterbating suggestions from opposing fans(mainly the Dodgers) who think we're just going to give him away. They're like the "New" Yankees on the block. |
| 4. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 00:15:17 Docmilo, I wouldn't say that Saunders will be better next year. Bourn has a history of putting together good seasons. Saunders had one decent season. I'm also not sure where your comment about him being barely better than Ryan. That's so far off the mark, it's not funny. If you were joking, it didn't come off that way. If you're going to make a statement like that, back it up. Bourn is still in his prime at 29, so a steep decline isn't at all likely. He's the leadoff hitter that Seattle doesn't currently have. |
| 5. By: dewey on 12-05-2012 00:47:11 Does Bourn become Jacks Bedard? I thibk he needs to stay on track i still think if he gets to 500 he has a chance but i believe the suits get him |
| 6. By: k0o56 on 12-05-2012 01:43:10 It may be too generalized, but I foresee Bourn being the next Figgins. I'm against handing pitchers tons of guaranteed money, but Felix is definitely an (if not THE) exception. |
| 7. By: John_S on 12-05-2012 06:30:10 Here are Bourn's numbers since 07 his first full year in the majors: 2007 - .277/.348/.378 2008 - .229/ .288/ .300 2009 - .285 / .354 / .384 2010 - .265 / .341 / .346 2011 - .294 / .349 / .386 2012 - .274 / .348 / .391 He's never been a .300 hitting in the NL, doesn't walk and strikes out alot. Factor in league change, park change (Houston and Atlanta to Safeco)and age and it's a recipe for disaster. |
| 8. By: John_S on 12-05-2012 06:33:08 check that, he does get his fair share of walks. |
| 9. By: whereswoody on 12-05-2012 06:37:36 EDMAN, Disagree, your wrong. |
| 10. By: mazono on 12-05-2012 08:27:22 Woody, what do you disagree with and why? Bourn not better than Saunders visa versa? The leadoff hitter the m's currently don't have? I have mix feelings about this offseason, as of right now just about any move is going throw me a curveball. Just don't see the m's doing anything of a "splash" here this week. |
| 11. By: short on 12-05-2012 08:42:26 I feel like the extension of Hernandez is a pretty big deal right now, even though there are a lot more "sexy" deals being talked about. If the team can't extend Felix, and if the young players in the organization continue to scuffle and not show development, I think the temptation to take offers for Felix' remaining year and a half will be huge at the deadline. At that point in time Felix' trade value will still be enormous -- especially to a team making a World Series run. And if the rest of the team still stinks the motivation for keeping him for one more year will be greatly diminished. I'm not saying the team should or shouldn't trade Felix. Just that if they don't get an extension this year, the math begins to make sense for a deadline deal should the current crop of youngsters fail to show improvement. |
| 12. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 09:34:56 So, whereswoody, which troll from Scout are you? Reveal thyself. Are you simply a displaced troll? |
| 13. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 09:45:44 short, why would it be huge? As long as Felix is in Seattle, no matter how long his contract is, the discussions will continue. Trade value for Felix will always be enormous, that won't change. The Mariners don't have to do anything until the last year of his contract. I agree that they need to get him signed to an extension, but lets not move into the realm of gloom and doom at this point. Don't wory about the math, nor Felix. He wants to stay in Seattle. He's repeated that numerous times. At this point, it's not a worry. To do anything now would be over-reaction. |
| 14. By: short on 12-05-2012 10:25:20 My thinking is this: while Felix will still have trade value after 2012, it will be significantly less than it will at the 2012 trade deadline. A 2012 deadline deal not only offers more time for the receiving team to use Felix before his contract ends, but there is also the leverage of bargaining with teams that hope to win a World Series in 2012. That leverage can mean a better return. The team certainly could go ahead and try to sign an extension after 2012. But if they can't do it this offseason, why should they think it will be easier next offseason? If their revenues are about to change after 2012 with a new TV deal or something that could be a factor that changes negotiations. Otherwise no deal this year probably means no deal next year. So I agree that with everything we know about Felix and how he feels about Seattle, odds are good a deal gets done. I'm just saying that the consequences of not getting one done this offseason could be a trade. That's not doom-and-gloom, I don't think, just a prediction about what I see being the outcome of not getting a deal. If the M's do trade Felix the odds are good we'll be getting something spectacular in return. See? Optimism! |
| 15. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 10:51:54 short, I disagree. Spectacular seldom happens in trades. They may seem spectacular at the time, but many don't end up being that way, years later. |
| 16. By: maqman on 12-05-2012 11:24:02 I like that Z says he won't make a deal that doesn't make sense. I find that reassuring. I don't believe we have to make a big splash to have a better team next year, it's already a better team based on the moves Z has made so far. |
| 17. By: rjfrik on 12-05-2012 13:19:34 No thank you on Bourn. He will become a Chone Figgins here. He has no power, he's turning 30 and relies on speed and speed alone. Not a good recipe for an over 30 CF to have success. By his 3,4,5 year he would be a huge waste on the roster. If we can sign him to a one year, two year max, contract then do it. Otherwise why sign this guy? And frankly why would we want to punt the 12th pick to bring in a guy for a year or two. For me it's Hamilton or bust in the FA market. Let's look for a trade. If one can't be found. Then so be it. Move on. |
| 18. By: bhamhusky on 12-06-2012 08:32:58 Who is the M's lead off hitter as it stands? Ackley? I have landed on this. Do not want Bourne for two reasons. 1. Too old to for a speed player. 2. NL to AL. Not liking that. |
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