|By Jason A. Churchill||By 02-13-2013|
|1. By: rotoenquire on 02-13-2013 18:22:36|
With Kelley being traded for A. Almonte. I been watching some video on Almonte. He reminds me of a younger right handed De Aza OF ChiW. Steady not spectacular, but with speed and some slight pop, 19 Dbles last year with 4 HR's. I always look to Dbles for major league HR power translation. I hope he is invited to spring and given a shot to see what he can do. I would not get my hopes up. But, he has leadoff potential and I MEAN potential.
|2. By: greentunic on 02-13-2013 19:02:29|
I like how you're interested in the general blog-roaming opinions, especially lately.
For me, I think Seattle gets credit because Felix chose to stay. Granted, many would stay for that contract but Felix could have left and gotten maybe as much or more cash in a couple years. A player of his talent telling everyone "No, I really DID mean it, I love Seattle and I love this team!" may convince other players to come here.
Also, like we see in the NBA, I imagine Felix has the clout to help convince others (especially Latin-American and Venezuelan players) to come to Seattle.
Now, let's see the young guys take a step forward, and become a place with a good record AND the King, so players have to say "yeah, I'll give that new Safeco a shot!"
|3. By: FatBat on 02-13-2013 19:06:35|
Good question Jason. I think it has in ways. One that they are not afraid to spend. I think for me as a fan it's about taking care of your own. He's our star player and money be damned if we let him go. I like that as a fan. I didn't want to see him leave, and to see that they took care of that and saved us all a big headache having to listen to trade rumors next year is a big lift for me. Good for them us and Felix. What a class act Felix is, happy for him. How much has he given up to stay in seattle? How many one run games? And to still want to be here? Awesome!
|4. By: johnbeck1000 on 02-13-2013 19:17:24|
for Chuck and Howard to give this much money and to give a no trade clause is two things they haven't done ever so maybe they are figuring out they need to spend money to win and to change their ways...hopefully.
From everything Jack has said they tried signing Hamilton, of course Hamilton says they were never a serious contender but that doesn't mean the offer wasn't a 4-6 year deal in the $100-$150 mil range like we've heard and Hamilton wanted more for Seattle to be serious contenders.
maybe spending money has never been the problem it's who they have spent it on
|5. By: rotoenquire on 02-13-2013 19:43:59|
I think it is more that it lets the young guys know that if you perform and are ateam guy. YOU WILL GET PAID. I think it helps get rid of the trade rumors as well. It also may say something to F/A that the M's are serious. I think that next years F/A market is more condusive for the M's. Ellsbury should be the teams top target and the teams best chance to get a bat. The local angle helps a lot and could lead to other F/A signings.
For the fans it keeps a well liked player and stops the bleeding. jackZ has done what no other GM has done. He kept the large home grown talent. Unlike with A-Rod, Griffey and Johnson.
|6. By: DRWheelock on 02-13-2013 19:46:11|
If this isn't the biggest & positive motivation to get our top prospects and others hit the ground running this year. If this doesn't show them the sky is the limit, and motivate them to play with their potential, and even better then analyst even project them to be....I don't know what would motivate young players!
|7. By: Gibbo on 02-13-2013 19:55:00|
Yes it gives me more faith in the organisation, they got a deal done and its massive. Felix loves Seattle and he is so committed and grateful to the M's (sure he has a ton of money to help with that attitude). But watching him the press conference and his love and gratitude to the M's, his family and supporters was just awesome. What a great day.
|8. By: Paul Martin on 02-13-2013 20:18:22|
@1 Way to answer the question proposed by Jason. Almonte is nothing more than a warm body in AA or AAA. I would be shocked if he ever amounted to anything. Now on to the topic:
I give the M's a ton of credit by refusing to trade Felix and paying him the money to stay. Now having given them this credit, I am VERY INTERESTED to see what they do in the next year or two.
If they want to show me they are willing to spend money then they will continue to increase payroll to the 110 to 135 million dollar range. If they are going to pay one player 25 million, then they have to be willing to take payroll to these higher levels.
My guess is that they WILL do this. They have carried a 100 million dollar payroll in the past, Jack has proven he won't spend recklessly like Bavasi, and they have a TV contract coming up in two years.
I give them some credit today, and I am optimistic, but I won't give them full credit and believe they are willing to spend, until they make those NEXT moves.
|9. By: Uncle Al on 02-13-2013 20:45:46|
The signing bonus is $6M over 7 years or about $850K per year and salary is $19M in 2013 and $22M in 2014 so almost no change in those 2 years until the new TV contract kicks in. Pretty smart use of increase in ticket prices, cost of moving the fences, and the new scoreboard. They can spend more money in 2014 and go nuts in 2015 if they wish. Even not being able to get the the big name players they wanted (Zduriencik said he couldn't get it done this year)in FA or trade this year, they accomplished a lot as a franchise and still got Morales and Morse.
|10. By: Uncle Al on 02-13-2013 20:55:22|
The 2013 budget sits at $89M and that includes a contingency reserve of $6M. Still room to do something at the trade deadline I would expect.
|11. By: ripperlv on 02-13-2013 21:15:37|
It show me something, at least we can't throw the Randy Johnson thing in their face after this signing.
I believe the credibility issue is improving. If you believe in JZ, believe in his rebuilding process, believe that upper management/ownership want a winner, then you must believe the credibility is there. Not sold here @ 100%, but I think I've gone from 75% to around 90%. I think what happens now until the beginning of next season will have a big bearing for me if the M's are for real, or just memorex.
|12. By: Paul Martin on 02-13-2013 21:19:32|
Wanted to share my thoughts on comments posted, I like this topic/discussion.
@2 I agree that Felix left money on the table. You saw what Greinke got this year, imagine what King Felix could have gotten in two years. He would be 28 years old, and with the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, and Phillies all bidding, it could have been a crazy number. It just takes one team or owner with the "itch" to sign him and do something stupid. Just look at the Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols contracts as proof.
@4. I agree that their past issue was the WHO they spent the money on. Just a couple years ago they spent 100 million on garbage and still lost 100 games.
@5. Your last statement is inaccurate. They did keep Griffey two times and when they traded him it was only because Griffey didn't want to be here anymore and forced their hand. A-Rod wasn't really their fault either, he BOLTED the first chance he got, in fact he told the M's to NOT DRAFT HIM, that he would not sign with us. Alex never really wanted to be here. I agree with you on Johnson though, the guy wanted to get PAID and they thought it was too risky, that he his back would not hold up. This pissed Johnson off and after that he was as good as gone.
@6. I don't think it motivates young players. They are happy to have made it to the big leagues and are just trying to establish themselves and carve out careers. I think seeing Carp get cut is a bigger motivator. They see that if you don't make the most of your opportunities, you could be next on the waiver wire (just ask Triunfel or Smoak after this year when he no longer has options).
@7. I loved the press conference too. Felix gets it and embraces his role as a leader and face of the franchise, and seems to have a good head on his shoulders.
@10. I agree that the team has room to spend at the deadline, but they are more likely to be SELLERS, not buyers. It is spring and we can always dream though...
|13. By: Lonnie on 02-13-2013 21:38:54|
I just hope this shuts up all the people who are clueless about what a front office has to do yet still bloviates on and on about how cheap the FO is.
Myself, I think that this was a bold move by the Mariners. I think that it sends all the right messages to the players in the entire system.
|14. By: diderot on 02-13-2013 21:42:04|
To put the question in a little larger context, consider how consensus opinions from the Mariner blogosphere have turned out the last six months or so:
-- They'll never get rid of Ichiro
-- They'll sign Ichiro to an extension
-- They're so in love with sabremetrics/defense that they won't go out and get power hitters (Morales, Morse)
-- They'll never pony up top dollar for a premium free agent hitter (Hamilton)
-- Jack is too in love with his prospects; he'll never pull the trigger using them for a big trade for a hitter (Upton)
-- Jack is so panicked he'll sign any free agent hitter he can find
-- They don't see the need for more experienced starters to help ease in the young guys (Saunders, Garland)
-- Felix is just counting the days until he can get away to a contender; don't believe what he says
-- They won't pay what it will cost to keep Felix
Anything I'm forgetting?
|15. By: Jerry on 02-13-2013 21:47:52|
Honestly, not really.
The team had to do it. The player is worth more to them than anyone else, and he genuinely likes to play in Seattle. After having a mediocre offseason, and getting denied by two elite players, I think it helps them save face a bit.
As a fan, I don't think it changes my perceptions of the club. It might bode well for their willingness to raise the payroll, but this team is still in the bottom half of the league right now.
It would be more meaningful to see signs that the payroll is going to go up consistently from here. As some of our young players get more experience, they can and should look to resign guys who work out. And with Morales, Morse, and Saunders only signed for this year, plus other salaries coming off the books, they will likely need to dip into the free agent market to fill holes.
I'd like to see the M's get back into the top-10 in payrolls. With inflation in contracts and payrolls across baseball, they should be spending over $125 mil. That extra 40-50 million or so should be helpful.
I do wonder if this will help the clubs credibility in baseball, though. I think most free agents follow money, but demonstrating that they will do what it takes to retain their best players cannot hurt. Getting back to respectability in the W/L column would help more, tho.
|16. By: Jackson on 02-13-2013 21:56:58|
I don't really buy the argument that this deal necessitates the Mariners surrounding Felix with better players and an increased payroll. They previously signed him to a 5 year deal back in 2010 and did neither, so I'll take a wait and see approach.
|17. By: docsmith on 02-14-2013 04:05:16|
I never thought the Mariners were afraids to spend money. I would say they try to be wise with their investments and, therefore, are a little more conservative than certain clubs out there. What they did with Hamilton is very consistent (if reports are true). They made a good offer, but a good offer for both Hamilton and the Mariners. I think it can be, should be, and has been argued that the Angels may have crossed the line in that the deal is good for Hamilton, but has a high chance of not being good for the Angels in the end. Similar with Fielder last year. I bet we made a good offer, but someone (Tigers in this instance) were willing to go about 5 steps further.
This does give the M's just a little bit more credibility in my eyes. They did what they should have done. They took care of their own. The contract can be looked at as a bit of a reach as the M's "could" have waited another year. But you can also argue that Felix likely left money on the table. So, it is very consistent with the M's willing to offer big money but not shockingly big money. But they get credit from me for getting it done.
|18. By: Galway on 02-14-2013 07:03:13|
The Mariners have spent money in the past just not wisely. I'm reminded of the Lou Pinella comment where he stated its not that they don't want to win it's that they don't know how. I think the past decade has been about them learning how to and how not to. So I'm not surprised of their willingness to spend on Felix. A side effect of that process of learning has been they are now rightly or wrongly an unattractive destination which makes spending difficult. Hopefully they can make enough progress that they can offer free agents etc... some hope and close a deal. If they can get to a .500 club, fences in, rising talent, and comitment to Felix then cummalatively that makes a statement. They win 68 games talent regresses, prospects become busts, SAFECO remains a dead zone offensively the Felix contract won't make much of a statement.
|19. By: maqman on 02-14-2013 11:58:03|
This was a very good move by the club and tells me they are willing to spend to win. They will have $25-$26MM in additional income from the national media rights sale and Figgins $8MM off the books next year and $7MM more if they don't pick up Guti's option. Z has given them a lot of talent making the MLB minimum and they can spend to keep Morse or Morales if they want, sign any free agent available or take on payroll in a trade, plus they will have more established talent to trade. GMZ has made the Mariner's a truly good team and organization. They need to extend him too.
|20. By: Wishhiker on 02-14-2013 13:27:55|
Good point, Maqman. I agree that they should extend Zduriencik. I think that will happen after the year, but am behind it even now.
On free agents seeing the contract to Felix it would have been better timed if it had been done just after the season. Not saying they should have waited, just that the memory would have been more fresh that way. I think the seasons results will probably be much more in their minds at that point.
|21. By: rotoenquire on 02-14-2013 18:02:00|
@12 The point is things were not done to keep him and he did leave. Gillick in several interviews years after Griffey left Seattle said. A-Rod was wanting to be the teams main guy. Griffey did not want to cause internal problems by demanding A-Rods trade or trying to sit A-Rod down and put him in his place. So Griffey asked for a trade. Gillick said he should have traded A-Rod instead and that Griffey would have stayed for his entire career in Seattle. Gillick also would have got a lot more in return with a bidding war.
|22. By: Bookbook on 02-14-2013 18:59:28|
Yeah, but A-Rod's career after that moment blows Griffey's away (about 80 to 18 in offensive WAR. Adding defense only grows the gap). Griffey arguably had two good seasons, and zero great ones after he forced the trade.
Is he arguing that Griffey would have magically stayed healthy and effective by staying in Seattle? Otherwise, it's a very strange regret to have, given the benefit of hindsight.
|23. By: Paul Martin on 02-14-2013 19:07:20|
@22. I agree with you, but Seattle should have traded A-Rod before he reached free agency, regardless of Griffey. They should have known A-Rod didn't want us to draft him in the first place and Boras was his agent and would be looking for a crazy contract, which he got from Texas. They were also stupid in not keeping him in AAA longer so he would not hit free agency so soon.
Not a big deal today, but as fans we can always look back and think "what if?"
|24. By: Wishhiker on 02-14-2013 19:29:19|
Gillick wasn't here until 2000 and since his first move was trading Griffey, why would he not have traded ARod then instead if that was his thought at the time? Maybe all you say is true but it had to have been hindsight. If that was the issue for Griffey (and i recall those reports then too) then trading A Rod with all teams as options would have been better. Being forced to trade Griffey seemed like it was because he wanted to keep ARod. It really sounds like the "would have done's" you attribute to Gillick were hindsight for choices he actually had. Obviously he couldn't keep A Rod down an additional year, but you're also not attributing a quote to him having said that.
|25. By: Wishhiker on 02-14-2013 19:31:34|
Griffey actually said at the time that it was because of death threats and to be closer to family. The other reasons were discussed in media and blogs though.
|26. By: Wishhiker on 02-14-2013 19:37:28|
There is a school of thought also that Randy never would have lasted in the cold weather here. His back problems could have been exacerbated by the temperatures here. That Arizona helped his back by being a warmer home park. Sounds a bit outlandish but there's no way to prove either way. The idea seems plausible though.
|27. By: Timberwolf on 02-14-2013 20:53:06|
I give them a lot of credit, but failure to do this would have been a Titanic class disaster. You have a young, brilliant, charismatic guy who wants to be here. Of course you sign him up.
|28. By: maqman on 02-15-2013 10:58:06|
Okay, where do I sign?
|29. By: dewey on 02-15-2013 13:27:29|
I think the credit goes to Felix because he wanted to stay. The 175 JZ had nothing to do with that its a straight ownership move when the money gets that high.I will be interested to see where this leads us i hope the right direction to get back to respectability i would wait till end of year on JZ contract to see if some of these hyped prospects are as good as he says if so lock JZ down if the guys stay the same well thats another topic.Go Mariners
|30. By: Edman on 02-15-2013 16:28:35|
dewey, you're naive if you believe Jack had nothing to do with Felix staying. His moves, his selling Felix on the direction the franchise is moving, and selling ownership on his value in regard to that $175 million and its value to the franchise.
Way to sell Jack short. *rolls eyes*
|31. By: dewey on 02-15-2013 18:00:42|
We differ on this one Ed anytime 175 mil is involved that comes from ownership period! I dont think anyone in there right mind would turn down 175.I think if you where the GM Felix would have signed honestly? When the team starts winning its diffrent and they havent yet all we have right now is alot of prospects who might be good our bad. Also we all are hoping Ack,Smoak,etc are gonna be better this year hopefully they are but there is no guarentee either way .Alot of times we believe all the hype but i will wait it out i hope it works but i wouldnt just say yes its gonna happen i guess im a realist not just a dreamer ive seen this before in baseball in a few orgs.
|32. By: Paul Martin on 02-15-2013 18:31:32|
@29 It is irresponsible and foolish to think Jack had NOTHING to do with Felix staying. He refused to trade Felix when teams like NY were calling and offering boat loads of prospects for him. National media types kept saying he should trade him too, but Jack to his credit never entertained the idea.
Also, we have the most HANDS OFF ownership out there. What makes you think they stepped in and demanded the move? A more likely scenario is one where Jack sells ownership on the value of Felix as the face of he franchise, and gets ownership approval to write the check.
I am hard on Jack when I don't agree with moves he makes (like Fister, Morrow, and and Langerhans) but if you are going to blame him for the bad, you must give him credit when he does the right thing.
As for the 175 million a no brainer for Felix? I think he left money on the table. Had he hit the open market at age 28, he would have made more money.
Be thankful that Felix wants to be here, he will always be royalty in my book for it. But to refuse to give Jack any credit is foolish and short sided.
|33. By: dewey on 02-15-2013 19:29:22|
Your right Jack does deserve some credit i worded that wrong but believe me as bad as we all kill Howard and Chuck on here they would have never let Jack trade Felix they know its the only drawing card they have had for 2 years.Weather Felix
left money on the table who knows for sure what if that elbow problem came up next year and he had to have TJ surgery? Greed kills sports thats why we should appreciate a guy who wants to stay here? Is Felix the best pitcher in baseball? I dont know but he would have to be in the top 5-10 i would say so we are lucky to have him.
|34. By: Wishhiker on 02-16-2013 05:26:11|
I don't comment about Howard or Chuck. I haven't figured out how to read their minds yet. People who comment about Howard and Chuck seem to have a group mind with them because they all act like they know their thoughts. It's kind of creepy.
|35. By: richie ab on 02-16-2013 08:48:04|
Felix feels comfortable in Seattle probably 1 of the main factors IMO. I like the contract not necessarily for the grind of the season BUT if Mariners make post-season "my oh my" contract will be solidified.
|36. By: maqman on 02-16-2013 11:10:20|
Since he's been on the team Felix has produced about $190MM in WAR value and been paid about $60MM, meaning the M's got $130MM in surplus value from him. He's just starting to enter his peak years and the WAR value is going up. He could miss three of the seven years he's signed for and the M's would still get more than they paid for. If Boras was Felix's agent and Felix listened to him he would tell Chuck and Howie to cough up $250MM after he became a free agent or the Steinbrenners would.
|37. By: DRWheelock on 02-16-2013 11:48:37|
Maqman I liked your post, because it really shows how much "value" Felix has brought to the team WITHOUT being compensated for it yet. If we use that analogy it would breakdown like this:
$190M Felix Career YTD Produced WAR Value
-$60M Felix Career YTD Salary Paidout
=$130M Credit in the Mariners Favor through 2012
Now lets analyze his next 7 year contract and it's a NO BRAINER:
$175M Felix Contract over the Next 7 Years
-$130M (Value M's have 'already' received by not paid him for)
=$45M Remaining to pay in value over the next 7 years
7 years / $45M = $6.5/Year
So, basically for the Mariners to go in the hole on this 'new' contract he would have to pitch less than $6.5/year WAR value for the next 7 years!
RISK? It has been minimized down to $45M over the next 7 years.
Just an interesting way to look at this 7 year contract (with an 8th option year), and to justify the contract a little better for those that think it's WAY too much to spend on a pitcher of his caliber.
|38. By: Jackson on 02-16-2013 12:49:47|
That's not a good way to justify a contract. If it was, Felix should have gotten something like 7/300 from the Mariners. (And 7/175 from everyone else)
|39. By: maqman on 02-17-2013 11:16:34|
Felix got his current market value in his contract, which was not an overpay or a hometown discount. Verlander and Kershaw will most likely get more as win values are increasing in alignment with the new media income. However the FO and ownership were absolutely aware of his prior surplus value and should feel pretty comfortable that he will continue to produce more of it in the next seven seasons. Verlander is older and a bigger risk to wear out sooner, while Kershaw is younger but has produced less surplus value yet than Felix. Of he three I think Felix is the safest bet to more than earn his paycheck.
|40. By: Marlin Man on 02-17-2013 12:53:21|
I had the pleasure of sharing a ballgame last year with Howard Lincoln, my first time meeting the man. I have to admit that I was shocked that he was not anything like the media had led many of us to believe he was. When he and I shared stories about our being fans of the old Coast League Teams, you could see the sparkle in his eye! I am more sure today than ever before, that HE wants a winner as bad as we do.
|41. By: jokestar on 02-17-2013 14:20:11|
I never thought that I would ever write something favorable about Arod but he did sign an extention with the M's. He did it against his agent (Borass's) wishes.
|42. By: Wishhiker on 02-17-2013 14:42:51|
He signed with the mariners against Boras' wishes and after saying he wouldn't sign if they drafted him. He also signed a contract that replaced his arbitration years against Boras' wishes. It was not an extension, they owned his rights for those years anyway. Boras wanted him to go to arbitration every year, he chose the security of a somewhat low overall offer that was guaranteed.
|43. By: dewey on 02-17-2013 14:43:42|
#40 Where did you sit with Howard at Seattle our Peoria? Your the first person ive ever heard thats met him..
|44. By: Marlin Man on 02-17-2013 19:23:44|
Actually stood with him in the owners box, (in that he never sits-always stands in the same spot at EVERY game. Had the pleasure of being with him and Jack last Summer. It was a very nice experience. I am telling you the man LOVES baseball.
|45. By: maqman on 02-18-2013 11:02:24|
I don't doubt Howie and Chuckie love the game. Their problem was that they didn't always make smart choices, not that any of us would have probably done any better, except in our dreams. Their smartest move this century was hiring Z, who knew what was needed and how to get it (more often than not, which is a major improvement). I think the Mariner's long journey through irrelevance is finally approaching its end and they are due credit for the good along with the blame for the bad.
|46. By: docsmith on 02-18-2013 13:02:35|
The possibility of Bourne or Lohse signing a MiLB contract came up awhile ago. Came up again, for Lohse, in Ask BA today:
|47. By: Paul Martin on 02-19-2013 05:49:13|
"Closest to the pin" contest. With Carp due to be traded by Thursday, 1. Name the team that trades for him and 2. For what player(s)???
Here is my attempt:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. OF prospect Khris Davis
|48. By: Mackie on 02-19-2013 07:52:55|
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. RHP Tyler Thornburg
|49. By: Jerry on 02-19-2013 10:03:51|
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Someone you've never heard of.
|50. By: ripperlv on 02-19-2013 11:53:08|
1. Red Sox
2. OF Williams Jerez
|51. By: Edman on 02-19-2013 12:35:29|
1. Some team not being discussed.
2. An older prospect with a fringe skill-set.
|52. By: liumike1996 on 02-19-2013 13:06:06|
|53. By: dewey on 02-19-2013 13:26:53|
Brewers a bag of used baseballs
|54. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-19-2013 13:34:56|
@18 Don't forget the new video scoreboard and Edgar Martinez's new restaurant!
|55. By: Wishhiker on 02-19-2013 14:33:41|
Astros, Seattle born Austin Wates. Make it trades with 3 division rivals in one offseason. Houston has so many outfielders in their system it's hard to guess which one. They're a good place to look for a guy that could cover CF in a few years.
|56. By: Paul Martin on 02-19-2013 14:50:06|
@52 send him to the Angels for anything BUT Trout. That way the Angels can have TWO FISH on their 25 man roster...
|57. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-19-2013 15:34:48|
1. Boston Red Sox
2. lefty-hitting OF Keury De La Cruz
|58. By: rotoenquire on 02-19-2013 19:57:31|
A. Aceves RP
|59. By: whereswoody on 02-19-2013 22:14:14|
@55, Austin Wates, nice.
Played against him in High School. 4 times better than anyone else on the field. Played Short Stop then, could turn the double play better than I had ever seen. Hit a ball in the right field gap about 400 feet for a home run. There was no fence, he scored about before our center fielder could reach the ball
|60. By: Wishhiker on 02-19-2013 22:51:42|
Wates might be asking too much, I don't know. He's one that stood out to me with Houston though and CF depth above A+ seems like a good move. Has some speed too which I think is another lack in the upper minors.
|61. By: Paul Martin on 02-20-2013 09:12:44|
Closest to the pin? He goes to the Red Sox for cash or a player to be named later...
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