| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-16-2009 |
Felix Hernandez is a first-year arbitration-eligible starting pitcher coming off his best season in the big leagues. He will not turn 23 years of age until the first week of the 2009 season, has more than 600 innings under his belt and is the owner of the best pure stuff in baseball.The Venezuelan has shown some immaturity in the past, mostly in terms of his reactions to failure mid-inning, and until 2008, there were consistency and conditioning questions.
His spaghetti and syrup diet was curbed much earlier last offseason and the right-hander put many of the intangible concerns to bed, allowing three earned runs or less in 21 of 31 starts, and a solid 3.80 FIP, the best during any of his three full seasons.
While his groundball rates sank to 52.1 percent and his line-drive rate soared from 16.1 percent to 18.5 percent, and his strikeout rates remained while his walk rates worsened from previous seasons, he clearly avoided the meltdowns he experienced in the past, particularly after issuing a walk or two or giving up the long ball.
Should Hernandez’s control return to 2006-2007 form, or revert to the progress that was expected for 2008 when the year began, the future is as bright as most ever thought it would be for the Mariners’ ace.
This is good news for Mariners fans, Felix himself and the organization in general. But it’s not good for the franchise in one rather critical capacity.
It’s going to cost a fortune to keep Hernandez in Seattle, and that starts this winter as Hernandez is eligible for arbitration for the first time.
Felix and his agent Alan Nero are more than open to a multiyear contract, and have been for two years. The Mariners say they have been interested in such a deal, but have yet to make a serious offer to Camp Felix, and year-to-year arbitration contracts could cost the Mariners more than a four-year contract that buys out one of the pitcher’s free agent years.
From 2005-2007, Chicago Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano earned just under $23 million during his three arbitration seasons, and due to inflation, and the natural talent advantages Felix has over his fellow countryman, those three-year figures could rise to $30 million.
Last winter, the club probably could have coerced Nero and Hernandez to accept a three-year, $15 million deal that would have taken the club through 2010, giving the M’s another chance to sign Hernandez to a long-term pact before the kid hits free agency after the 2010 season.
As things sit today, a three-year offer would have to at least approach $25 million, maybe more, since Hernandez’s agent knows his client can duplicate, or even surpass, the figures by Zambrano.
Seattle made a mistake in not locking him up, instead trying to motivate the youngster, which was understandable after 2006. But after the ’07 season, even as he struggled and spent time on the disabled list, cost certainty would have been enough of a reason to do something, let alone the chance to save millions.
Now it’s going to cost them, and it’s probably going to cost them a four-year contract, perhaps with a fifth-year option or even five years guaranteed, at somewhere north of $8 million per season.
The exact range is impossible to predict with a lot of confidence because there is a gross lack of players of similar age, experience, and projectable abilities from which to draw comparisons, but that’s not the only thing the Mariners need to be concerned about when it comes to Hernandez.
As you can see in the table below, Aaron Harang and Jeremy Bonderman got more than $9 million per season on four-year deals, and even though they each came in year two of each players’ arbitration status, that won’t matter when it comes to Felix’s leverage in contract talks. He’s younger, has more developmental time left, which gives him more projection power to negotiate with, and he’s better than both Harang and Bonderman.
The status, experience and other comparables only matter when the arbitration figures are being bandied about or taken all the way to an arbiter. In multi-year contract talks, it’s an open market discussion, and not only are Bonderman and Harang’s deals fair game, but so is any other four or five-year contract given to any starting pitcher over the last two years, including Derek Lowe’s 4-year, $60 million contract with Atlanta.
But with all the questions being put forth to the Seattle Mariners this winter, this one may be the most interesting, and the most critical to the future of the organization.
What’s Felix Hernandez worth?
| First-Year Arbitration - Multiyear Deals 2006-2008 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Contract | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cliff Lee, LHP | 4/$15m in 2006 | ||||||||||||||||||
| John Lackey, RHP | 4/$26m in 2006 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Aaron Cook, RHP | 2/$4.55m in 2006 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Ian Snell, RHP | 3/$8.6m in 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Adam Wainwright, RHP | 4/$15m in 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||
| One-year Arbitration Deals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Contract | ||||||||||||||||||
| Carlos Zambrano, RHP | $3.76m in 2005, $6.5m in 2006, $12.4 in 2007 | ||||||||||||||||||
Erik Bedard, LHP | $1.4m in 2006 (S2), $3.4m in 2007, $7m in 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Josh Johnson, RHP | $1.4m in 2009 (1st Year Arbitration) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Brett Myers, RHP | $3.3m in 2006 (1st Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Adam Eaton, RHP | $4.65m in 2006 (3rd Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dontrelle Willis | $4.65m in 2006 (1st Year Arb Record) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Other Multiyear Contracts to Arbitration Eligible Starting Pitchers | |||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Contract | ||||||||||||||||||
| Aaron Harang, RHP | 4/$36.5m in 2007 (2nd Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Jeremy Bonderman, RHP | 4/$38m in 2007 (2nd Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nate Robertson, LHP | 3/$21.5m (2nd Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Aaron Cook, RHP | 3/$30m (3rd Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dontrelle Willis, LHP | 3/$29m (3rd Year) | ||||||||||||||||||
felix\'s-value
Comments
The following 42 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: pwhit44 on 01-16-2009 05:19:21 Good lord, give him 4 years $36M ($8.5 per) or 5 years $40 ($8M per) and be done with it already. Why is this an issue? Just pay him. He's Felix for heaven's sake. |
| 2. By: pwhit44 on 01-16-2009 05:20:58 Heck, 5 years $50 million. Anything is a bargain in this range. |
| 3. By: stickball on 01-16-2009 11:02:43 Jason, I believe Eric Gagne had the first year arbitration record for a pitcher. Gagne won the Cy Young in 2003. He lost arbitration in 2004 but still had the highest arbitration deal $5M ($8M-$5M). |
| 4. By: Wishhiker on 01-16-2009 12:07:18 It seems that even though the team waited for him to have proven more that the present economy might balance that out some. If a 4 win pitcher who came up through your farm and has a good head start on most dominant pitchers throughout history by his age isn't worth locking up longterm at around 10M/year I don't know what to say. I see that (a vastly different FO) could have done it sooner at closer to 5M per that would have covered last year instead of what he made and ended sooner than any agreement would/should now. Instead they're more likely to get a more dominant season or more for still far below market value for a pitcher of his caliber. I thought they should have done it a few years ago as well, but it's not all bad at this point that they never did. Locking him up through age 27 or even 28 is more feasible now even though it will cost more per year. Unless salaries drop by about 30% during his contract (assuming he signs now for 3-5 years) it seems possible that they'll save more on the last 1-3 years of that than the loss perceived at not locking him up sooner. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-16-2009 14:01:17 Gagne is not a starter, stickball. All of the above pitchers are starters. Gagne's $5 mil means ZERO when it comes to Felix Hernandez. Willis's does. |
| 6. By: stickball on 01-16-2009 14:43:05 Listing Josh Johnson is worthless. Chien-Ming Wang is at least in the same ballpark as a comp. He got $4M in 2008 (first year). |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-16-2009 15:57:45 Listing Johnson isn't worthless because it STARTS this season's base of first-year arbitration starting pitchers. Get over yourself, stickball. And I didn't need every single name listed to establish a low base, and the higher bases. |
| 8. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-16-2009 19:08:50 I realize that I'm not a numbers-cruncher, or a GM... But, as far as Felix goes, I say "throw the wallet at him and tell him take what he wants". Considering the caliber of pitching still landing $8,9,10-mil-a-year deals, I don't think a five-year, $50+ million-dollar deal is all that far-fetched. Matter of fact, sounds in tune with the times. They should do whatever they need to, but Felix Hernandez shoudl be kept in teal-and-blue. |
| 9. By: Marlin Man on 01-16-2009 21:40:07 I say trade him while you can get a lot for him- This kid does have all th etools in the world EXCEPT a braina nd guts- JUST like Freddy- both are idiots and gutless- tools yes- smarts and guts NO where Freddy now?? trade the kid while we can still can- he shudda beena loyt better this last year IF he was gona get better- other than the frist 10 days of the season he was a c- at best MM |
| 10. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-16-2009 22:25:08 Marlin Man- ummmmm...what?! "tools yes- smarts and guts NO" And where's your proof of this statement? Smarts and guts- as quantified by the major leagues- regards two different things.... professionalism in your craft and coming through in big game situations for the most part. IMHO, Hernandez hasn't had such a thing as a big-game situation- with a lot on the line- in order to prove himself yet. So, on that fact alone I really think the "no guts" part of your assessment can go out the window. In less than 4 seasons, Hernandez has curbed an unacceptable diet. And the last two years he's been in a reasonable approximation of the condition a husky 6'3" professional athlete should be in. I think anybody who's seen him over the last two years can agree with that. That would be an indication of professionalism. "Trade the kid while we can still can"- brilliant, just a brilliant statement. A trade like that- no matter what you get in return- just tells your fanbase that you have ZERO interest in keeping your best players and making a championship-caliber team, but nonetheless expect the fans to keep paying to watch a perpetual "in-progress" project. Uh, NO. The fans won't pay for that, and it doesn't take a Keynes or a modern economist to tell you so. "he shudda (sic) beena (sic) loyt (sic) better this last year IF he was gona (sic) get better" God, dude...you ever think of editing before you post?? You make it sound like he should've made the world forget that guys like Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan ever existed by now. He's having a better career at this point than those two, fool. As a matter of fact, pick a Hall of Fame pitcher. His numbers probably don't suffer in comparison. They're likely better. I'm not saying Felix will be a HoFer, but he's off to a pretty good start. And above all... He's TWENTY-frickin'-THREE years old at the start of THIS season. He's got nearly 40 wins in the big leagues- again, more than most Hall of Fame pitchers had by age 22 if they were in the bigs at all. Nothing he's done- or hasn't done- would be indicative to me of not having "smarts". Quite the opposite, really. I like to think I'm reasonably intelligent, but I promise you...you wouldn't want even the twenty-three-year-old version of ME working for you. He's way more mature than what I can say for myself at that age....with having had a ton more media and distractions/expectations to deal with. So, I'm of the mind Felix is doing quite nicely in terms of development. And I'll even go farther. THIS is Felix' breakout year. I really believe it. I don't know what his numbers will be like, because I'm honestly not sure how all these new pieces on the offense and the team in general are going to gel at first. But, I'm wlling to bet that his strikeouts will be up, his K/9IP will be higher, and his flyouts and groundouts ratios significantly better. And while they're not the be-all and end-all, I won't be surprised if I see more wins, and lower WHIP and ERA. The only reasonable comparisons you can make to Freddy Garcia and Felix is that they are both emotional by nature, both wear #34 and are Venezuelan. None of which would solidify your opinion. |
| 11. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-17-2009 02:28:56 I will, however, eat a small piece of crow really quick. I meant Sandy Koufax, not Tom Seaver. Koufax got his 20th ML victory in his fourth full year, Nolan Ryan had all of 18 or so wins by his fourth year. Something was bugging me about my post, and a quick check showed I switched names and stats. Tom Seaver did REALLY well his first three full years, thank you very much- 16,16 and 25 wins. My bad. I go sleep now. |
| 12. By: Marlin Man on 01-17-2009 10:20:50 well I'll tell ya RocketDAwg 1st off- no need to attack ME because YOU differ with MY opinion- who in the hell do you think YOU are???? I been sitting in my season seats since 1st game of M's existance- and I will tell you there is a LOT more in common with Feliz and Freddy than where they were born and what number they wear- both are big crybabies- that let ump get their goat and both had a lot of tools when they were 21- and both are empty between the ears- Feliz better grow up fast or he will be JUST like Freddy- wasted talent Can I prove that? No Can you disporve it? No- yet I don't call you an indiot because you THINK you know what you are talking about- and have SOOOOOO much knowledge you ATTACK another poster. Got a clue for you my friend- from now on, you don't like my opinions- DO NOT read my posts MM |
| 13. By: Marlin Man on 01-17-2009 10:59:20 And by the way DAwg- I have been dyslexic all of my life, if my spelling bothers you so much a am SOOOO sorry. I will work much harder to attempt to satisfy you. Have managed to gradute from College and grad school and builkd a multi-million dollar biz with this curse, but like trying to hit a curve- it ain't easy. But , By all means I hope my spelling doesn't ruin your day YOUNG man MM |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-17-2009 11:48:18 We get anymore hounding of anyone about their typing/spelling, I'll ban that person and never let them back. It's not like you couldn't read exactly what Marlin was saying. Get over it. I won't have that crap here. Disagreeing is one thing, but bringing someone's typing or spelling into it just ridiculous. It has no place here. Re: Felix The three things holding Felix back these days are: 1. Command 2. He still needs to improve upon his mound presence - and this is what Marlin was talking about. He's let things get to him, which is a maturity thing. He was tremendously better about it 2008, but he needs to take another step there, too. So there ARE certainly similarities between he and Garcia there. The advantage Hernandez has is that he's much more competitive and cares a hell of a lot more about being great, winning, and being a good teammate than did Garcia. 3. Shouldering the load of a mediocre team. He shouldn't have to, and doing so curbs his development, which is the one reason why Bedard's presence was a good thing last season. It didn't work out, of course, but Felix needs to know he's being backed up by his defense, bullpen and the other starters. The Mariners, as an organization, can fix No. 3, and they can help with the first two. I'm not sure if Adair's strengths include mechanics, but Felix has a few flaws that, if fixed, could help him repeat his release point on all of his pitches. Because right now, he doesn't do that, causing poor command too often. |
| 15. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-17-2009 12:00:55 Post #12- MM, apologies. Profuse apologies. I do differ with the opinion, but I guess I was below the belt. Post #13- Fair enough. Promise that won't happen again, from me, anyway. -RD31 |
| 16. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-17-2009 12:03:09 Sorry, Jason, I meant Post #14 when I say it won't happen again. |
| 17. By: Marlin Man on 01-17-2009 12:12:04 Nor a problem DAWG we are all fans of the game we love, and of our sick puppy M's- differant opinions for sure- but what the ehck, thats what this whole country stands upon- differant opinions- I respect yours and enjoy reading yours. Like I said nto a problem Thanks Jason for providing us the vneue, and your eprert opinions/knowledge on the game to help us along the way. Have never seen aa better site for just "takin Basbeball" MM |
| 18. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-17-2009 12:40:38 Re: Felix I still maintain that for all the expectations foisted on Hernandez from the time he was in his teens- at age 23, he's doing well. Of course I'd love for him to win 20 (which involves more than being really,really good, I know) and of course I'd love to see him just dominate the game (like he's shown flashes of) ALL the time he's out there. But at 23, it's way too early (I think) to pronounce him a guy that we're best served by getting rid of in a trade. I think he's way more of a winner than Garcia. I really do. I was never particularly enamored with Freddy, I must admit. I always had him pegged as a "first-rate #2 or #3 pitcher...but he doesn't have it in him to be #1". I think Felix DOES have it in him to be #1. Is it only 27 more days 'til pitchers and catchers report? Man, I can really hate winter. |
| 19. By: xarmyguy78 on 01-17-2009 12:45:07 FWIW: Phillies agreed to sign Cole Hamels to a three year contract worth $20.5MM. Hamels made $500K last year and was arbitration-eligible for the first time. The new deal spans his three years of arbitration eligibility without covering any of his free agent years. http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2009/01/phils_sign_cole.html I am not a statistical person by any means but from what I have seen of his performance it would seem the Phillies got one heck of a deal. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-17-2009 13:07:50 It's a good deal, yes. But even being older than Felix and with less experience at the same age, and also pitching in the NL, Hamels still got almost 7 mil per for those three years. A fourth year would have likely attached another 9 mil to it, maybe more, making it a four-year, 30 million dollar contract at minimum. That goes right along the precedents set by Harang and Bonderman as 2nd year arby guys. |
| 21. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-17-2009 13:29:10 Considering starting pitching seems to be one of the few positions in baseball where owners are just hucking big wallets at with reckless abandon, I'm actually surprised Hamels didn't wind up with MORE than $7 million per. |
| 22. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-17-2009 15:09:18 My general thought; I concur. Good deal for the Phillies. And it's probably too late for the Mariners to follow suit with Hernandez. I think people are likely right in when they say Felix will cost more now. At first I was thinking "Wow, if a guy like Hamels only gets $7 mil (ONLY! shee!) a year, maybe that's a good thing for the FO in negotiations with Felix." but, I think it won't change any market situation. Hamels has the awards and portfolio-padding, all right- but Hernandez' youth (and accomplishments up to now) probably keeps what he can expect in a deal right there with what Jason said. If not higher. |
| 23. By: bodhizefa on 01-17-2009 19:41:02 Now it looks like Markakis has signed a long-term deal with the O's. Every year and month we wait on Felix, it costs us millions and millions more. It's time to pony up and give Felix some security and our team a longterm star to wish on. |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-17-2009 21:25:21 The whole idea that it's a motivation ploy is nonsense. Felix will always have a competitive edge. He got 800k to sign, which was more than 90% of the batters he was facing received as a bonus in Everett/Wisconsin, Inland Empire, San Antonio and Tacoma, and he was nails. He's not purely motivated to get money. |
| 25. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-17-2009 22:02:29 I think Hamel sets a ceiling on what Felix should get. Even though he is a little over 2 years older than Felix, he the superior pitcher right now. I can't see how Felix's camp would think he deserves more. I would love it if Seattle could get Felix on a 4y/30m extension. What exactly is the holdup? |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-17-2009 23:05:01 You can't see why Felix's camp would think he deserves more? Really? FIP the last three seasons - Hamels 3.96 3.80 3.70 Felix 3.99 3.83 3.80 Pretty darn similar, right? Now take into consideration the following: Felix has nearly 40 more innings pitched the past three years, even though Hamels went 227 last season. Hamels injury history stripped him of some leverage. Hernandez is two years younger, naturally giving him more remaining time to get better - he's still got developmental time left, even physically. Camp Hernandez can look to the 2nd year arbitration numbers achieved by John Lackey and Aaron Harang, and even the 3/30 by Aaron Cook and use waiting another year as leverage. If Seattle low balls Felix on a three or four year deal now, he could go into this same situation next year and be in a much better bargaining position than he is now. While Felix's agent wouldn't want to risk that, the only thing that hurts his stance is an injury, since there's not a big chance that Felix pitches poorly. And there's really not much of a chance he misses significant time, either, so... If he has a big year, Seattle is going to be S-Crewed next winter when they go to offer a long term deal. Offer him what's fair now - 3+ years at 8+ mil per - or pay the price next year when he could easily and justifiably command $10 mil per over four years, which would be a net cost to the M's of at least $8 million bucks. 3/21 is the STARTING point for Hernandez, and I'd be shocked if Nero and Felix agreed to anything less than 3/24. If the Mariners were smart, 4/32 would be in my phrase sheet for negotiations. |
| 27. By: candasharp on 01-18-2009 01:29:53 I agree that 4/32 is very fair and appropriate given age, talent and comps. Furthermore, I would even consider adding another 10-20% per year for a longer term deal to show Felix and his agent that we not only wish to fairly compensate him but also reward him for being a Mariner through these transitional years as move back towards rspectabilty. Show Felix respect and then let that become the hallmark for Mariner management towards those unique players who we wish to really remain M's for life. |
| 28. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-18-2009 11:54:02 Well its the same in the Hamels situation. If Philly would have low-balled him and went into the '09 offseason with Hamels having another stellar year under his belt and no contract, they would be the same flavor of screwed Seattle will be if they handle the Felix situation poorly. I really think that Z has to do some overtime in stroking Felix's ego. He has to instill in him that this is HIS team and so forth. That we are building AROUND him. And like everyone on earth is saying, don't pinch pennies. If there is one time to be exceedingly generous with a pay raise... this is it. 4 or 5 years would be a dream come true for Mariner fans. |
| 29. By: Tom2000 on 01-19-2009 02:52:01 Jason, you mentioned that Felix and his agent are willing to accept a multi-year contract. While I haven't heard or read any direct quotes either way, the stuff I've read on the blogs and in the media over the last couple of years has given me the impression that Felix wasn't ready or willing to sign a multi-year deal with the Mariners. Is your information new, or is my information wrong? :) If Felix has had a change of heart, that's very good news. It removes a huge roadblock to keeping him in blue and teal. I'd appreciate anything further you have to say on this matter. And if Felix is willing to negotiate, some advice to Z: "Go big or stay at home.") Many thanks! Tom |
| 30. By: The Great Pumpkin on 01-19-2009 10:48:31 Mariners avoid arbitration with Felix. He signs for 1-year, 3.8 Mil. |
| 31. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2009 10:55:24 Because there is no such thing as actual public evidence that someone wants to sign such a deal unless they straight up say they do - which Camp Felix HAS indeed said pubicly, through the team, just not a lot, and not recently - until they sign. The fact is, Felix and Nero haven't been willing and/or ready to sign for the M's were offering. Why is that any different than Hamels, for example? There was no word one way or the other AT ALL, and he just inked his deal and was happy about it. I heard a rumor last winter that Bavasi and co. were trying to buy out six or seven years from Felix, which, at the time, would have bought out all of his arby years and one or two of his free agent years, for somewhere in the range of three million to four million per season during his arb years and an incentive-laden final year worth twide as much, which would have been the free agent year. That's not a competitive contract for Felix. 6/21-25 million or 7/24-27 million... not when he can get four+ mil in year one of arbitration and 170% of that in year two and earn half those contract totals in two seasons and almost all of it in three, if he went year to year. |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2009 10:57:47 I was just told via email that the two sides are negotiating a multi year deal and expect to do so throughout spring training to get something done, but that they needed to make sure Felix had a deal he was happy with for 2009. $3.8 mil should make him smile. |
| 33. By: Tom2000 on 01-19-2009 14:07:32 Thanks, Jason. Good info, and great news! Tom |
| 34. By: littlelinny6 on 01-19-2009 15:03:56 Jason, that is great news they are negotiating with Felix for a long term deal. In my opinion he is the most important asset of this franchise going forward and to me he will be the face of the Mariners for many years to come. While we are talking about Felix, are you in the camp that thinks Felix must throw more offspeed stuff to take his game to the elite level? It seems there can be no absolutes but much evidence points to an overdependence on fastballs in the last year. |
| 35. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2009 15:39:11 No, I think he needs to vastly improve his command. A 97mph fastball, even if the hitter knows it's coming, is a good, effective pitch if it's well located. Pitch sequence is only an issue for Felix because his four-seamer isn't located well, typically. |
| 36. By: littlelinny6 on 01-19-2009 19:12:23 Yeah, that makes sense. Sorry to get off topic but for life of me I cannot figure out why the M's have not signed someone like Eric Hinske to play LF? The M's admittedly have payroll restrictions (however you seem to vacillate on that point) and Hinske will be dirt cheap, LH bat with power, play slight above average/average LF defense. He can also play 3B in an emergency if Beltre is traded as well as 1B. Zdurenciek said he plans on Endy Chavez starting in LF if the season were starting today. I think Endy's defense is a great asset but he should be a late inning defensive replacement/4th OF--not a starter. The only other option is Balentien who Zdurenciek does not seem high on. Plus last year Balentien played about as poorly as you can while missing nearly every pitch that wasn't a four seam fastball. This idea of signing Hinske was originally brought up by Bleeding Blue and Teal and I was curious if I was missing something from a scouting perspective as to why a deal has not got done. My best guess is they are still holding out hope for Balentien. |
| 37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2009 19:36:51 It takes two to tango, linny6. Maybe Hinske wants to play on a contending team, and maybe he doesn't like Seattle. |
| 38. By: Edman on 01-19-2009 21:11:41 Jason, stop that crazy talk. Everyone wants to be a Mariner.....LOL. On the reality side of things. Some of you are hyper-critical of Felix. The hype before he got to the big was so overly optimistic that you could be led to believe that he was the next Cy Young. I warned folks at the time that it's a horribly huge expectation on the kid. If you remove that expectation, that he be another Dwight Gooden, then his numbers are STILL in the upper etchelon (sp?) of pitchers in baseball. He's just not an uber starter. The kid deserves to make good money and I believe they will work out the deal. On another board, someone dared to compare this to Freddy Garcia. Freddy went to arbitration and was unhappy with the M's offer. JZ has successfully avoided that situation so they can look forward, instead of looking at each other in the present with bitterness. Embrace who Felix is and see the real importance of this signing. It's a departure from confrontation that keeps the doors opened to a long-term discussion. It's something to celebrate. |
| 39. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-19-2009 23:17:57 I agree with you, Edman. I'm pulling something positive out of this. Making seven times what you did the year before, hey...I think Felix is happy, and all we gotta do is make him mo' happy...as quickly as possible. And, while I recently resigned any and all commission I had with The Syntax Gestapo, since you asked... it's 'echelon'. You weren't far off at all. |
| 40. By: Lonnie on 01-20-2009 10:23:37 Jason, I'm curious why I haven't read here about trying to sign Felix to something beyond 4 years? Wouldn't it make sense to try to lock him up to something like a 8/100 type of deal? Lonnie |
| 41. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-20-2009 11:47:40 If you are Felix, do you want 8/100 now or 4/32 now and 8/200 in four years? If you are the Mariners, do you want to invest 100 mil guaranteed in Hernandez right now? It's not necessary by any means, and I'm not sure Hernandez would even go eight years, knowing that in three or four seasons he can demand the largest contract for a pitcher in history of the game. |
| 42. By: stickball on 01-23-2009 13:20:03 When all was said and done, Josh Johnson's signing was completely worthless in judging Felix's arbitration amount. |
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