Prospect Insider - Draft Weekly: Mock 10, Rendon notes

Draft Weekly: Mock 10, Rendon notes

By Jason A. Churchill

By 05-26-2011

Thursday I spoke to two senior-level talent evaluators that hinted -- but wouldn't say outright, of course -- their thoughts and beliefs surrounding Rice's Anthony Rendon.

Subscribers can check out the latest Top 10 Mock, the notes on Rendon and his status in the top 5, and legit targets for the M's at No. 62 by clicking here.

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Comments
The following 30 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: ASUBoyd on 05-26-2011 21:44:39
Great stuff, JAC.

Gotta ask about this from KLaw's chat today:

Q: Is it safe to say Seattle has Rendon #1? If he slips past them will AZ pounce on him?

A" Klaw (4:23 PM)

I think he's their guy, with Lindor still in the conversation. That would be *nuts*, though, unless they know something about Rendon we don't - and I have every reason to believe the source that told me Rendon has no structural damage in the shoulder.

Where is the disparity in the player evaluation coming from that you consider Lindor a worth 1/1 or 1/2 player and KLaw thinks it would be nuts for the M's to tab him at #2? Thanks man.

2. By: dawgncarolina on 05-26-2011 21:54:23
I was just about to ask the same question ASUBoyd.

I'm really hoping for Rendon.

3. By: baseballman on 05-26-2011 22:41:03
If we draft Rendon, I'm excited because that means the M's believe he will be that same player that could have been taken over Harper last year.

If we take him then we potentially have that huge power bat that's not too far away from being in the bigs.

4. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-26-2011 23:18:52

Jason,

is there any chance the M's go college catcher with #62? Guys like Pratt Maynard (NC State), James McCann of Arkansas, the Komentani kid from San Diego and CJ Cron of Utah could feasibly still be there to be picked, provide good value for that slot.

And it's not as if we're swimming with quality catchers. We all know "don't draft for need"...but value-wise, does college catcher make sense at #62 with any of those above?

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2011 23:20:16
It's more an indictment on Rendon, Cole, Hultzen than anything else.

There's little reason to believe so much in Rendon right now that he's worth $5-7 million. And the team's don't even have the medicals yet. It's just one guess versus another.

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2011 23:21:36
rocketdawg,

Sure, but Cron can't catch. He's been playing first all year because of a shoulder thing, but isn't a long-term catcher anyway.

Chris O'Brien might make sense in round 3.

7. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-26-2011 23:25:52

Jason,
Also, we can pretty much all agree that this draft is the deepest in close to a decade. And I know you don't know the overall budget McNamara/Zduriencik have to work with this year.

IYO, is there a chance that the Mariners emphasize maximizing this draft class and do what they did last year- draft talent at slots lower than their talent suggests they should be (like Paxton, Shipers, Christian in 2010- all of whom signed with us)- and take their chances that they'll roll sevens and elevens on some tough signs?

Any thoughts you have on that would be appreciated. But at #2 and #62, that isn't ideal to get our share of premium players on slotting alone (like Tampa Bay is positioned to do).

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2011 23:28:37
I think they'll stay within the same philosophy to draft signable players a high pct of the time, but rolling the dice on a kid a little later, like round 3 and beyond, will again fit.

9. By: 36148 on 05-27-2011 08:41:14
Any updated opinions of Blake Snell and Trevor Mitsui...both playing in the state 3A tourney this weekend? A scout told me Mitsui's the best HS hitter in the state.

10. By: Edman on 05-27-2011 11:30:52
I'm becoming more concerned about Rendon's shoulder, at this point. I'd rather see them go with Lindor, who doesn't have any medical issues. This is too important a pick to be wrong.

11. By: Slack on 05-27-2011 13:34:55
I completely agree with you on Rendon. I won't deny Rendon's talent but there is too much uncertainty.
For me, its either Lindor or Bundy at this point.

12. By: maqman on 05-27-2011 13:43:09
Without reliable medical input on Rendon he's too risky at #2 If they want a bat quick I'd take Springer, if they want a high upside possibility then Lindor will do, if they want an arm I'd buy Bundy.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-27-2011 14:06:17
36148,

I am at Cheney watching Snell and Mistui today -- both are top 250 talents, Snell probably a top 100.

Shorewood RHP Kevin Moriarty may have the momentum, however.

Snell threw this morning, sat 86-90, mostly 87-89, and 67-71 on the curveball. He was ... OK, I'd say.

Mistui, who entered today's game hitting .712/.859/1.653 -- yes, you read that right -- with 11 homers and 36 intentional walks -- is a bat only, as he brings marginal value elsewhere on the field. He's very pull happy, but has bat speed and has tremendous strength.

Both players, IMO, should go to school -- both are UW commits -- because they aren't going to go high enough to pass on the chance to become Day 1 picks in three years. Even with hard slotting, they'd both likely triple their bonuses.

14. By: Edman on 05-27-2011 14:57:25
It's just an opinion, but I think that Boras is advising him to withhold any medical records until such time that there isn't enough time for teams to thoroughly research the data. If there is really nothing to hide, then why wait.

I don't believe he can afford to not release the medical records, because that will appear as though there is a problem. But, they can control how much time team doctors get to make an evaluation.

15. By: short on 05-27-2011 15:44:06
Edman
I'm starting to think the same thing. I'm not sure how much time is enough to thoroughly evaluate those records. Is it permissible for a team to request further examination of an undrafted player? If so, that may be what they're trying to prevent by delaying the release.

But Jack is no fool and if the medical records are withheld or delayed long enough I expect he'll react accordingly.

16. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2011 16:15:11

It's just an opinion, but I think that Boras is advising him to withhold any medical records until such time that there isn't enough time for teams to thoroughly research the data.

I really can't dismiss that possibility.

But I'm also wondering if a kid like Francisco Lindor is the right pick at #2, anyway. Regardless of Rendon's health. A switch-hitter with that frame and that defense...and I look at the swing, I'm thinking the kid will hit a bit.

So many scouts seem to think that this kid is just going to be a beast. I have to admit I see video of him, and I see something that could very well be special.

Obviously, in my ideal world? I'd want a college bat at #2, and one that plays third base well defensively (like Rendon) REALLY would've fit all the criterion.

If Rendon had just had a year similar to his last two at Rice, I'd consider him an absolute lock to go #2, if he wasn't picked #1 by Pittsburgh. But he hasn't, and now my spider-sense is starting to tingle as to why.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, by default they're the real X-factor in our equation. I can tell you on a stack of Bibles I have NO idea what they're going to be doing at #1. Hultzen? Lindor? Rendon himself? Bauer? Cole? Bundy?

I do know I don't want Rendon picked unless he's a talent that's so obviously the best we can get, that it'd be dumb to not take him- I don't want him picked because he looks like the quickest fix to the black hole we have at the position at the major-league level.

Shoulders are funny things, too. I once injured mine- and while my shoulder's "structural integrity" was fine, it took months of rest to get it back to full strength.

Rendon would probably be better served releasing his medical info. If it's red-flag free, the difference could mean millions to him.

If it's NOT red-flag free, well...a team is likely to find that out before a contract is fully negotiated, anyway.

Sigh, ten more days to go.

17. By: Edman on 05-27-2011 16:20:38
I don't know if it's Lindor or someone else. But, withholding the medical reports is only hurting Rendon's case to be the #2 overall pick.

18. By: rjfrik on 05-27-2011 16:24:33
"If we take him then we potentially have that huge power bat that's not too far away from being in the bigs."

I'm not sure how someone can make this statement after watching Rendon play this year. His swing and mechanics do not scream "potential huge power bat". At this point Rendon is a .290 hitter that clubs about 15 HR's a year. It's light years better then anything we have had a third for the last few years but in no way do I see Rendon having any star potential. He is a solid regular on a MLB team.

We are really in a conundrum because we need to compete in the next few years and Rendon will help us do that (most likely) but he won't be a star, in my opinion. On the same note we have a chance to take a player that has a much higher ceiling and has major star potential in Lindor.

What do you do? Tough question.

19. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2011 16:27:41

Jason, maybe we should have a thread that asks all the PI readers to predict what Pittsburgh and then Seattle with do, 1-1 and 1-2 in the draft. Maybe make it so you don't have to give a rationale, but can if you want.

But also- ONE pick for each. No hedging bets with "well, if Pittsburgh selects Player X, then I say Player Y...BUT, on the other hand..." No no no. None of that waffling.

That'd be fun! And the field is more wide open than at least I'd ever imagined it would be last winter. Myself, I'd be VERY curious as to who you, Chris, slamcactus, rjfrik and Edman (among others) would predict.

Don't know about any prize offerings, but it'd be a hoot to see the predictions of all the regulars here.

20. By: rjfrik on 05-27-2011 16:27:41

'10. By: Edman on 05-27-2011 11:30:52
I'm becoming more concerned about Rendon's shoulder, at this point. I'd rather see them go with Lindor, who doesn't have any medical issues. This is too important a pick to be wrong."

I am in the exact same camp. Rendon scares the hell out of me. I'm afraid he turns into a Ryan Roberts and that just isn't worth the number two pick in the deepest draft in over a decade. This pick has to be a STAR!!

21. By: rjfrik on 05-27-2011 16:29:52

"14. By: Edman on 05-27-2011 14:57:25
It's just an opinion, but I think that Boras is advising him to withhold any medical records until such time that there isn't enough time for teams to thoroughly research the data. If there is really nothing to hide, then why wait."

This! This is why I'm Rendon scares me. Something is fishy.

22. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2011 16:36:24

This pick has to be a STAR!!

rjfrik,Edman-

I agree, also. God willing, we may not pick this high again for quite a while, we need as substantial a building block as possible.

I admit I'm probably as innately impatient as any fan, and want to see winning ASAP (and often college talent makes it up and establishes themselves faster). But if best talent means a prep like Bundy, Lindor or Starling...so be it.

In "Z" I trust. Ackley was a no-brainer, and Z proved to be right about Nick Franklin.

This pick needs to be JUST as right.

23. By: Blowgun7 on 05-27-2011 18:59:38
Jason, I was reading the Times blog today and Grifol said Erasmo Ramirez was sitting 92-95 the other day..

True or is that a minor league director blowing some smoke?

24. By: sexymarinersfan on 05-27-2011 19:31:47
Rendon is still my pick, especially over Lindor. If he's gone then, I'd take Cole, Starling, or Bundy. No doubt Lindor will be special.

25. By: baseballman on 05-27-2011 21:47:53
RE 18: if you had not taken that quote out of context and would have read the first part of the statement you'd know why I said what I did...

"
If we draft Rendon, I'm excited because that means the M's believe he will be that same player that could have been taken over Harper last year."

26. By: dawgncarolina on 05-28-2011 00:54:26
"It's light years better then anything we have had a third for the last few years but in no way do I see Rendon having any star potential"

Rendon oozes star potential. The problem is his floor keeps dropping because of the shoulder. But the ceiling is still a six win player.

27. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-28-2011 01:27:14
I heard Ramirez was 90-93 this year. He's turning into Mauricio Robles with command.

Dawg, well put.

28. By: frzgg on 05-28-2011 12:57:49
I'd be disappointed if we took Lindor at #2, I think thats a reach. The 3 picks I like the most are Rendon, Starling and Bundy, in that order. I'm starting to come around on Starling as the pick at #2.

29. By: davelee99 on 05-29-2011 04:56:50
At what point in time are teams allowed to contact draft eligible players (or their agents) to determine issues like injuries or signability?

30. By: mymrbig on 05-29-2011 09:09:12
It makes me smile to see people saying Rendon would be risky at #2 and then looking to the high school ranks. Cole was hitting 100 this weekend and the overall evaluations of both the curve and change are good.

Still, I think Rendon should be the pick because if there isn't anything structurally wrong. You can't ignore his monster freshman and sophomore seasons and any mechanical issues can be tweaked once his shoulder is back to 100%. Obviously if something is torn or whatever, Rendon shouldn't be the #2 pick and I'd go with Cole.

Now if Pittsburgh were to take Cole and Rendon's shoulder is more of a long-term issue, then I get nervous about the pick. With everything I've read about Bundy, I might go with him.

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