Prospect Insider - Draft Weekly: M's targets, Davis, mock

Draft Weekly: M's targets, Davis, mock

By Jason A. Churchill

By 03-26-2011

I skipped the draft weekly last week to focus on the pro guys down in Arizona -- and we still have some video left to publish -- but there was too much going on to skip this week entirely. We'll be back in Tuesday's slot next week, but here's a weekend edition to whet the whistle. By the way, there is video of one the top prospects in the northwest region below.

Seattle Mariners at No. 2
I have my own theory about the M's at No. 2, which is if there is a college player there that makes a lot of sense -- i.e. Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon -- that is the direction I strongly believe the club will go. The reason I see it that way is based on the more-than-lukewarm seat Jack Zduriencik may be on this season, one that will certainly heat up a year from now. Selecting a prep player doesn't help Zduriencik improve his stock with the M's ownership group and front office suits, because there is a virtually no chance that player helps before 2013 or 2014.

But there are scenarios that I could see Cole or Rendon not being the pick. For one, Pittsburgh may very well tab Cole at No. 1 and Rendon -- who began playing third base again earlier this week -- may not grade out well enough to be worth the price and risk (injuries) at No. 2.

On my own created surface, it seems the Mariners would much prefer the talents of Bubba Starling over any other prep player. Starling is a two-way star at Gardner-Edgerton High School in Kansas, offering low-90s heat from the mound and a high-upside as an outfielder with power.

He does come with a strong commitment to the University of Nebraska to play baseball and football, but considering the potential for new hard slotting, most in the industry believe he will eventually sign -- though it will not be cheap.

But there are sources that tell me the M's value several players enough to strongly consider with their first-round pick, including prep shortstop Francisco Lindor, Georgia Tech lefty Jed Bradley, Virginia southpaw Danny Hultzen and prep right-hander Dylan Bundy.

I'll go ahead and call B.S. on the latter three, and replace them with George Springer, Sonny Gray and the ghost of Ryan Anderson.

Lindor, however, might truly be a consideration, so if Rendon continues to have problems with his timing and the Bucs snag Cole, Lindor could be pick. But it will take such a scenario where Cole is gone and Rendon has not returned to form and put the injury concerns behind him, or one of the two college stars will be in the organization come mid-August.

As for round two, where the Seattle Mariners own the No. 62 overall pick -- I have already mentioned names such as Josh Osich -- but let me throw a couple of names out there on which to keep an eye:

Alex Dickerson, OF/1B -- Indiana
Dickerson is a bit like Rich Poythress but with a better hit tool and more problems putting together long stretches of strong performance. He's a better overall prospect than Poythress, especially since he may be able to hold down left field.

He's still a potential first-day pick but hasn't had a good first five weeks, which has his stock down for the time being.

Andrew Chafin, LHP -- Kent State
I talked about Chafin a few weeks ago on the draft blog -- he was sitting 90-93 after having Tommy John surgery a year ago -- but he's still hitting 92-94 a lot, and is throwing a breaking ball. He's also still on a pitch count, but if he shows he can handle a full workload by the end of the year, he'll probably be gone when the M's pick comes around in the second.

Chafin is ranked at No. 38 on our latest Future 50 at ESPN.

James McCann, C -- Arkansas
McCann is a catch-and-throw guy with a chance to be an average bat, possibly better thanks to consistent swing mechanics designed to hit line drives and make contact.

McCann possesses average arm strength relative to the position, but is very accurate and has above average pop time and good overall technique.

Mocking the Top 10
This is not a talent ranking, but a mock based on talent, signability and the philosophy of the club.

1. Pittsburgh -- Gerrit Cole, RHP -- UCLA

2. Seattle -- Anthony Rendon, 3B -- Rice

3. Arizona -- Jed Bradley, LHP -- Georgia Tech

4. Baltimore -- Bubba Starling, OF/RHP -- Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)

5. Kansas City -- Sonny Gray, RHP -- Vanderbilt

6. Washington -- Francisco Lindor, SS -- Montverde Academy (FL)

7. Arizona -- Trevor Bauer, RHP -- UCLA

8. Cleveland -- Matt Barnes, RHP -- UConn

9. Chicago (NL) -- Dylan Bundy, RHP -- Owasso HS (OK)

10. San Diego -- Blake Swihart, C -- Cleveland HS (NM)

Northwest's top prospects
Redmond High School's Dylan Davis began the year as a potential first-day pick (top 60) but has been inconsistent early on, despite sitting 90-93 this past Tuesday at Eastlake High School.

He touched 95 in the game, but couldn't command the fastball and the curveball backed up on him on a number of occasions. he did settle down a bit in his final inning -- after walking seven batters -- and took a little off the breaking ball -- maybe 2-4 mph or so -- and showed better depth.

His delivery is simple and the velocity comes easy for him, despite being just 6 feet tall and about 200 pounds. But he has trouble getting downward plane on his four-seamer and at times it's very straight.

To check out video of Davis, subscribers can click here.

If you've yet to become an Insider, click here.

Pacific Northwest Top 10

No.

Player, Pos.

School

Tyler Anderson, LHP

Oregon

Andrew Susac, C

Oregon State

Blake Snell, LHP

Shorewood HS (Wash.)

Dylan Davis, RHP

Redmond HS (Wash.)

Josh Osich, LHP

Oregon State

Ryan Carpenter, LHP

Gonzaga

Cole Wiper, RHP

Newport HS (Wash.)

Michael Conforto, 3B/OF

Redmond HS (Wash.)

Jace Fry, LHP

Southridge HS (Oregon)

Sam Gaviglio, RHP

Oregon State

draft-weekly:-m\'s-targets,-davis,-mock

Comments
The following 54 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Lonnie on 03-26-2011 21:43:27
Please, no Lindor! My gut tells me that he is Josh Wilson...

Lonnie

2. By: KingFelix on 03-26-2011 21:53:32
I would love to see Rendon fall to us at #2. We would have an infield in 2013 of 3B Rendon, SS Franklin, 2B Ackley and 1B Smoak. That would be a nice base of young players to build our team around.

3. By: CyFelix on 03-26-2011 22:03:14
I've wanted Rendon for a while but Cole's stuff is flashing awesomeness and I know he isn't on that level, but the only fair comp to him and his stuff right now is Strasburg territory. I'll take a guy who dominates at third and is able to swing the bat (however as Chris on his Twitter likes to mention) STOP WALKING THE DAMN KID.

4. By: hayden.wieck on 03-26-2011 22:29:16
Jason

I see Adam Conley from WSU has completely fallen off your top 10 NW prospects list. Did something happen to his draft stock lately to drop him this much? Or was he just accidently left off the list.

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-26-2011 22:36:33
Josh Wilson, Lonnie?

Stop listening to your gut, especially before seeing the player for yourself.

He's uber athletic, a legit SS with plus range and a 55 arm. Switch hits with some pop from both sides, too.

hayden,

Conley was electric in his first outing or two, touching 97 mph with an improved breaking ball. But his velocity has been down -- even into the 89-91 mph range at times, and his breaking ball has not shown even average -- a few starts it was non-existent and/or drew some 30s.

6. By: rjfrik on 03-27-2011 03:41:44
Jason Chimed in before I could but geez, Josh Wilson?

Lindor, IMO, is the 3rd best guy in the draft behind Cole and Rendon. For those that haven't seen him play go look at his video, he has a legit swing, can handle the position like no ones business and as Jason said is a freak athletically.

This kid is really good.

7. By: Jerry on 03-27-2011 07:15:02
I think it's awesome that there are now two guys who are legit options at #2. That's the perfect scenario for us. I hope that Cole keeps dominating, and Rendon gets back to health. That would leave the M's with a real easy decision.

Lindor and Cole are both great players, but I'm still crossing my fingers for Rendon. He would be the perfect fit for the M's.

8. By: 24fan4life on 03-27-2011 08:37:22
My concern with Rendon is the power numbers. Jason, do you think part of it is the ankle? If it's all because of the new bats then I would think his future projections with wood bats has to be a concern.

9. By: slamcactus on 03-27-2011 10:17:27
BA's jumping pretty heavily on the Susac bandwagon these days. Callis said he's making a push to be in consideration for the #2 college position player in the draft, and Fitt said in a chat last week that his draft stock is skyrocketing.

10. By: safecochatter on 03-27-2011 10:28:06
Cubs release Silva,still owe him 11.5 million. looking like that trade will be a win in the M's ledger. unless of course,Milton goes postal again...

11. By: John_S on 03-27-2011 10:38:05
Jason,

do you think Lindors defense could push him to the majors in a couple years even if his offense needs to catch up?

Just going off videos his actions are really effortless on defense.

12. By: Lailoken on 03-27-2011 11:03:58
#8, Rendon is getting the Barry Bonds treatment. He's walked 33 times & has logged only 89 at bats. The power numbers are ample considering how much he's been pitched around & the new bats.

13. By: 24fan4life on 03-27-2011 11:21:31
If I'm correct, Rendon only has 3 hr's in 85 ab's. Thats too low.

14. By: Jerry on 03-27-2011 12:30:15
The issue with Rendon isn't power. He's a great hitter. Its health. Staying on the field is a skill. He's missed a lot of time in the last few years. I'd be way more worried about that than his power numbers.

15. By: Lailoken on 03-27-2011 12:43:22
I'm going off the Rice University site stats.

Projected out:

156 games, 534 at bats, 36 doubles, 12 triple, 18 homers, 78 RBI, 198 walks, 18 hbp, 72 strikeouts, .337/.528/.551 triple slash, 1.079 OPS

Geez, what do you want from the kid? One more home run & it projects out to 24. Rice plays the creme de la creme of college teams too. Their schedule has included Stanford (ranked #23 in the 3/21 poll), Cal (#25) Arizona (#16), USC, Long Beach State, Texas A&M (#9), Baylor (#33), & Central Florida (#30). The kid hasn't been facing chopped liver.

Besides the stats, scouts sure like him too.

16. By: maqman on 03-27-2011 12:49:17
Cole would be my first choice at this point in time and then Rendon. Both of them and Starling are being "advised" by Boras, so none are coming cheap. Lindor looks pretty good but we have a couple of decent SS prospects on the farm and he's going to take some time to pay off, if he ever does. I don't see wasting the overall second pick for a HS prospect. Cole or Rendon would fill a need for the team in my lifetime.

17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-27-2011 13:50:49
Not worried about Rendon's numbers in the least right now. As I have stated before, Rendon has been DH'ing -- until this week -- because he's had a sore shoulder. You don't think that would impact someone's swing and the power output? It certainly does.

He started at third earlier this week, so perhaps he's getting back to 100 percent. So we'll see.

Plus, the new bat regulations are not going to allow for huge power numbers like before, and it was designed to play like a wood bat. So if a college hitter facing decent competition can OPS 1.000 or better, he's a pretty good hitter.

18. By: AntsInIn on 03-27-2011 14:18:06
Hrmmmm a Rendon/Franklin/Ackley/Smoak IF for 2013 or a Felix/Pineda/Cole/Paxton front end of the rotation...

either way the M's will have some fun young players to watch

19. By: Edman on 03-27-2011 14:26:03
Rendon's injury factor is starting to worry me. If he can't stay healthy or play third, I'd rather have Cole, or if they felt they needed a bat, Springer or Starling.

And #12, I slightly agree with the intentional walk thing, but even though Bonds got walked, he still hit homeruns when they had to pitch to him. It would affect his RBI total, but shouldn't affect his power numbers too dramatically.

20. By: CyFelix on 03-27-2011 14:50:19
Everything I've heard on his ankle is that both injuries were freak injuries. I'm not sure about the shoulder but who knows.

21. By: Lonnie on 03-27-2011 15:27:01
Jason sez:
"Josh Wilson, Lonnie?

Stop listening to your gut, especially before seeing the player for yourself."

LOL! The battle parameters are set: Lonnie's gut versus Jason's intellect!

I wonder if we can get this on Pay-Per-View...

Lonnie

22. By: Gustafson on 03-27-2011 15:34:57
Rice is playing UCF today. Rendon is 3-4 with 2 singles, a double, and a steal (his 4th of the year). He's the DH today.

Average up to .355

23. By: 24fan4life on 03-27-2011 16:02:45
Jason, what is your projected stat line for Rendon as a major leaguer?

24. By: dawgncarolina on 03-27-2011 17:42:27
Rendon is going to be a steal as the second pick.

25. By: Blowgun7 on 03-27-2011 17:45:48
Jason, what Major Leaguer, past or present would Lindor compare to?

26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-27-2011 20:09:38
Lonnie,

I don't think you want to go down that road ...

24fan4life,

I haven't seen him live, nor do I have a good feel for the new bats. The general consensus is that he could hit .300 with 25-homer power and well above average OBP numbers. But personally, I couldn't venture on anything I'd feel comfortable with right now.

27. By: 24fan4life on 03-27-2011 22:14:26
Jason, thanks for this website, it satisfies an obsession I have had since before I can even remember! My mom likes to jokes that I would follow the mariners in the paper before I could even read.

28. By: brockfs1 on 03-28-2011 01:13:54
Jason, with what you just said about the general consensus about rendon, would he compare to someone like Longoria with a lil less pop?

29. By: sexymarinersfan on 03-28-2011 02:09:31
I believe I've heard Jason compare Rendon to Longoria, but that he might hit for a better average. But I could be wrong. It's happened before. He's like a Longoria type though brocks1.

30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-28-2011 13:01:48
Blowgun7,

Lindor is athletic with plus physical skills like a Jose Reyes.

31. By: slamcactus on 03-28-2011 13:45:43
Longoria and/or Zimmerman are really taylor-made comps for Rendon. He's had a better collegiate career to-date than either of them, but at his best he fits the same scouting mold incredibly well. He was probably a tick below either of them as a defender at 3B when his ankle was 100% healthy (which is not a knock - Longo and Zimmerman are both fantastic defensively), so I'd expect the defense to be solidly below either hitter. The hit tool is fantastic, though. We won't get a real sense of the batting eye until he faces pro competition - the Barry Bonds-like walk rate born of college pitchers approaching him with extreme caution won't translate to the minors (and certainly won't translate to the majors), but he's a pretty patient hitter.

32. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 03-28-2011 14:02:44
I think the key here is not Rendon's skill level and ability. Sounds more like it there is a question about his injury history and can he stay healthy. That will be what Jack Z has to determine.

To waste that #2 pick would be disastrous for Jack and this franchise.

33. By: Edman on 03-28-2011 14:34:53
Agreed #32. I'm all in on Rendon, if they believe he can stay healthy and play a value position. At the least, he has to be able to play firstbase as a regular. The preference would be as a thirdbaseman.

If not, I wouldn't be upset with Springer.

But you're right, the franchise cannot afford to make a questionable pick at #2.

34. By: Juan Valdez on 03-28-2011 16:07:01
It seems like injuries are the only real concern with Rendon. So, that said, how does he profile if injuries limit his mobility and force a move to another position?

This guy is exciting though.

35. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 03-28-2011 16:21:42
#33 ...and I don't think they should choose Rendon if he can't play 3B since we already have a 1B in Smoak and not as much value as a DH. Go with Springer or the SS Jason has been writing about,Lindor

36. By: dawgncarolina on 03-28-2011 16:59:10
You guys are killing me. Rendon's not going to be relegated to DH. He's an above average defensive third baseman. If injuries keep him off of third (and basically no one who's scouted him or close to him thinks they will) he's just as likely to be a solid corner outfielder as a guy like Springer (who may just fall out of the top 10).

It's much more likely that Rendon goes #1 than that we pass on him if he's there.

37. By: slamcactus on 03-28-2011 19:18:14
I'll go 1 further from dawg's point and say that if Rendon is physically capable of playing 1B, he'll also be capable of playing 3rd. The ankle injury calls into question his reflexes and fast-twitch ability, not his range. Both 3B and 1Bs need good reflexes - the biggest difference between the two is that 1Bs don't need more than fall-down range to man the position, while you want 3Bs to both be able to charge and move laterally.

Rendon's range should be fine. His hands, footwork, and arm have always been excellent. It's his ability to cut and react quickly you worry about with a trick ankle. The next few weeks will be incredibly instructive as to whether he can play through the injuries he's suffered to date and still become an elite player. Of course, if you believe he's just an injury-prone player and he's highly likely to suffer future injuries that's a different discussion entirely and one that nobody's really qualified to comment on.

For my part, I think if Rendon's available at #2 and his ankle hasn't fallen off I think you have to take him. I'd almost be ready to take him even if I thought he'd be a DH (that's a bit of an exaggeration for effect - don't jump down my throat). I'm a big believer in the bat.

38. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 03-28-2011 19:33:38
slam,M's will need to determine after this season if Rendon is injury prone... and I think Pittsburg will take Cole as they have start 3B player and why take another? They will go with pitching which they are desperate for.

I don't think a DH should be taken at #2. Although he is quite a bat.

39. By: dawgncarolina on 03-28-2011 20:19:28
Rendon's not a DH so that point is moot. JD Drew is injury prone. He's also a very good defender.

IF Rendon turns out to be injury prone (which hasn't been proven in the least bit) he's still going to be a plus defender.

As far as Pittsburgh is concerned, I'm very worried they'll take Rendon. You don't draft for need and nobody believes Alvarez is a 3B anyway. If they draft Cole it's simply because they like him more than Rendon (many scouts do).

I saw someone on BA the other day say that heading into the draft Cole/Rendon is a better duo than Strasburg/Ackley or Harper/Taillon. I tend to agree. Whichever of Cole/Rendon is available is going to be the best #2 pick in years.

We can't lose.

40. By: StandinPat on 03-28-2011 20:19:33
This conversation is getting borderline ridiculous. So we should reconsider Rendon if he isn't healthy and can't play the field? I'm so glad that was brought to our attention. Without that wonderful piece of insight we might all be lost.

Just for reference though, Longoria, one of Rendon's comps, has a career .377 wOBA, which would rank among the top 10 1B's in the game, and in the top 3 for Dh's, so it's not like his value is solely tied to his play in the field. But even if he does lose some range due to the ankles, he could go from well-above average to only slightly above or below, still making him extremely valuable based on the bat alone.

41. By: dawgncarolina on 03-28-2011 20:20:28
BTW, good post Slam. You too, Pat.

Nice to see some sanity.

42. By: marinermutt on 03-28-2011 21:44:06
Nice to see former M's prospect Nathan Adcock make the Royals as a rule V selection. I always like him as a prospect because he always seemed to be playing in a league that was above his age. Pitched at High Desert at age 19.

Adcock was sent to the Pirates in the Snell/Wilson trade. Jason, I know when he was with the M's he was more a fringe prospect. Is that still the case?

Thanks,

43. By: baseballman on 03-28-2011 22:50:05
RE 39: I hadn't seen that comparison but it makes sense that the Cole/Rendon duo is the best duo in some time. That makes me really, really excited as an Ms fan. I can it though, Cole has been getting Strasburg like praise, and while he may be on Strasburgs level, it doesn't sound like he's very far off. As for Rendon, he should hit for a good average, get on base and trump Ackley in the power department. I do remember reading Keith Law write last year I believe that Rendon would have been taken #1 overall last year ahead of Harper.

Either way, potentially/hopefully we get an Ace or a middle of the order bat. Whats even better is that those guys are college players and not years away. And I too think the Rendon being injury prone is ridiculous. He's had some bad luck, but just look at his numbers, he comes to play.

44. By: davidUW on 03-29-2011 02:30:57
JC is there an easy way for me to watch videos that you've posted on the site for subscribers in the past? I'd hate to have to go page by page to find them.

45. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 03-29-2011 09:53:17
baseballman and standingpat, why do you need to label/criticize others opinions in a way that discounts their perceptions, concerns, etc? Why not just say you disagree?

And to say,"And I too think the Rendon being injury prone is ridiculous. He's had some bad luck, but just look at his numbers, he comes to play," just does not make sense. So to have two ankle injuries and a shoulder injury all in the course of a year or two ( unsure of timeline) is a matter of luck. And it is "ridiculous" to be concerned about his injuries because he comes to play. Injuries and Coming to play are not related.

Rendon's situation reminds me of Carlos Guillen who was often hurt in beginning of his career and it carried on throughout. He had good numbers when he was healthy but he was often on DL.

I guess we will see if more injuries occur and what Jack Z and Pirates decide.Personally, I think Pirates will stay away from him and go with Cole.

46. By: gwangung on 03-29-2011 10:41:17
#45

I think they're bringing a reality check to the discussion, which is getting just a tad overwrought with some bogus concerns and inapt comparisons.

Carlos Guillen? Really?

47. By: baseballman on 03-29-2011 12:12:22
cdiggins, you need not be so sensitive. I said labeling Rendon as injury prone was ridiculous, not that you were ridiculous.

And it is also ridiculous to say "I guess we will see if more injuries occur..." What does that even mean? For you to label a player as injury prone you should probably find out a little more about that player.

My comment about him coming to play does relate to the injuries. Having a couple injuries in a short amount of time does NOT equal being injured every year and getting shut down often. How many games has the "injury proned" Rendon missed in his college career?

48. By: Edman on 03-29-2011 13:23:19
baseballman, the concept that the M's should "evaluate" Rendon's injury factors is no more ridiculous than yours that they need not worry. They evaluate every player for potential injury risk. If they didn't, they should be fired.

And please, if you don't think that saying "it" versus "you" somehow deadens the ridiculous statement, you're wrong. If the concept is ridiculous, then you imply that the person saying it is.

Myself and others who've made comments about Rendon's injury potential never said he was an injury risk. Only that if there was uncertainty about that risk factor, that it should be evaluated. And, if after evaluation, if it is determined that he could have long-term injury potential, consider other top picks. The #2 pick is important to the future of the franchise. They need to be certain.

I hope we do end up with Rendon, as do many others. But, if through thorough evaluation, they feel they can get 162 games a year out of Springer, rather than 145 of Rendon, it has to be considered.

We all love our own opinions, but we should never fall in love with them.

49. By: baseballman on 03-29-2011 14:01:44
Edman, please state where I ever said the Mariners shouldn't evaluate Rendon's injury factors? Where? Please don't put words into my mouth just to make your post better.

I simply said a couple injuries doesn't automatically equal an injury prone, unreliable player. And it doesn't. So don't try to refute something I never said.

50. By: Edman on 03-29-2011 14:18:12
Actually, in all fairness, several have used the word ridiculous, not just you, baseballman.

But, there is nothing wrong with looking at both sides. Some are ready to draft Rendon and simply looking past injury potential, because they feel he's a great player. I don't disagree that he's a very good player.

Making issue with those who think that Seattle should at least consider his injury potential isn't any more fair than those who quickly diregard it.

Seattle is going to get a very good player this year. Rendon or Cole is the obvious choice. And, I fully expect it to be one of the two.

51. By: dawgncarolina on 03-29-2011 14:19:17
Sorry Edman. Attacking the argument is different than attacking the poster. This is message board/posting 101. Your argument is wrong.

52. By: StandinPat on 03-29-2011 18:01:51
@#45

Sorry, but going on and on about about possible future scenarios that we simply can't predict is useless and irrelevant. If come draft time Rendon is the best player available, the M's should take him, if not, then they shouldn't. It doesn't matter if that ranking is based on health, performance, or the presence of another player. It just simply doesn't matter right now, yet people seem hell bent on beating it to death.

He either will or he won't be the best player available... almost 3 months from now. Let's stop worrying if he takes an accidental musket shot while participating in a civil war re-enactment thats so historically correct that they don't have proper sanitation and he develops gangrene and subsequently gets his right arm amputated.

53. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-29-2011 18:14:53
If someone has already tackled this, my apologies, but the Pirates will not draft Cole because of Pedro Alvarez. He's GOING to move to first base, so if they took Rendon there would not be positional conflict.

54. By: Edman on 03-29-2011 20:21:03
Jason, I think most of us are aware that they'll draft the best player available, regardless of team needs. Alvarez is not a roadblock to drafting Rendon. Though, I suspect some hope it is. Hard to lose when you'll get one or the other.

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