Prospect Insider - M's should pass on Appel

M's should pass on Appel

By Jason A. Churchill

By 04-06-2012

Since late last summer, Stanford right-hander Mark Appel has been thought to be a top candidate to go No. 1 overall in this year's draft. It's a mediocre class, but Appel does fit the profile of a potential future ace.

He stands 6-foot-5 and wears 220 pounds well on an athletic frame. He's touched the upper 90s with his four-seam fastball and has flashed a useful slider and a potentially-plus changeup. The problems has been -- for most of last season and part of this one -- he doesn't miss bats as much his raw stuff suggests he should.

He's had starts this season where he's piled up the whiffs, however, and on those days his command was above-average and the slider was more than just a show-me offering. In those outings, Appel looked the part of a future No. 1 starter and a worthy option for the No. 1 overall selection.

On Thursday evening at Husky Ballpark on the campus of the University of Washington, Appel was none of the above.

He sat 95-97 mph in the first inning -- one in which Huskies third baseman Jacob Lamb tagged him with a two-run double to the opposite field in left-center on a 95 mph four-seamer -- and was overthrowing the slider. He walked two to set up the drive by Lamb.

He didn't command his fastball in that initial inning.

He was 92-96 in the second innings, sitting mostly 93-94, and commanded the fastball better. He also found a feel for his changeup, which came in at 82-84 mph.

The next four innings, like the second, Appel shut out the Huskies, whose offense is bottom third in the league and the weather conditions -- cold, damp air -- and fair dimensions appeared to help Appel a couple of times.

From the fourth inning through the seventh, Appel sat in the 91-94 mph range, though the drop in velocity appeared to be by design; he was throwing more strikes, and several of the fastballs had more arm side ride and some sink than early on in the game.

In the ninth, Appel, who threw about 120-125 pitches -- I counted, but there's a chance I missed a few marks here and there, so that number range is unofficial, was sitting 88-90 with his heater and 79-81 with a change.

The changeup was easily his best pitch on the night, getting some swings and misses throughout and even dropping a few in for called strikes. The slider, generally coming in at 83-86 mph -- was well below average. I do not believe I saw one above-average slider all night and he appeared to abandon it for long stretches in the middle innings.

Appel was far from sharp Thursday, but he also didn't need to be, and he didn't need his best velocity to win the game. After falling behind 2-0 in the first and allowing a leadoff single in the second, he did not allow a hit until the second batter in the eighth.

He struck out just three -- two of those swinging in the seventh inning -- and did not walk a batter after the first.

His mechanics were sound and his arm action, while not as clean as a whistle, works fine and from a high three-quarter slot. He pitches from the first base side of the rubber, drives well with his legs and lands consistently and in line to the plate.

For a taller pitcher, he's quick to the plate from the stretch and is instinctual in the field, covering the bag and backing up bases.

It's easy to see why he's the Gerrit Cole of this draft, but Appel doesn't excite the way Cole did, despite Cole's own shortcomings and concerns. With a better slider and fastball command, Appel is a top pitching prospect, and his size and velocity create a pretty high floor as a mid-rotation starter or closer.

Whether that is enough to get the Houston Astros to tab him No. 1 overall remains to be seen, but it's my opinion that if he were in the 2011 draft he'd rank somewhere behind right-hander Taylor Jungmann (No. 12 overall) and right there with lefty Jed Bradley (No. 15), and righties Sonny Gray (No. 18) and Alex Meyer (No. 23).

I would not select him No. 1 overall, and without marked progress with the slider and fastball command, I wouldn't consider him strongly at No. 3 where the Seattle Mariners select, either.

Huskies Prospects
Lamb, a Bishop Blanchet product, has a patient approach and solid stroke from the left side. He holds his hands fairly high, which may hurt his chances to get to good velocity down in the zone. He did not strike out Thursday, however, and has just 10 on the season versus 19 walks.

His bat speed is fringy, however, and he's yet to drive a ball to his pull side with me in attendance in about 40 plate appearances the past year plus.

Lamb handles third base and has the arm to stay there, but can get a little stiff at times, despite a strong, athletic build.

He's a Day 2 prospect, but he's the best the Dawgs have for 2012.

Right-hander Aaron West, who started opposite Appel Thursday, was 90-92 early, touching 94, and 89-91 most of the game before Stanford got to him for four runs in the fifth. He nibbled some, and offered a similar slider, in terms of quality, as did Appel. His change was a good offering early, but he had problems getting ahead most of the game.

West, at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, isn't the prototypical starting pitcher and is at best a mid-rounds arm. One term that comes to mind is "pitchability right-hander." He's tough and isn't without ability.

First baseman Trevor Mitsui, a freshman, is a beast, but has good hands on defense, a plus arm and consistent swing from the right side. He had a tough day Thursday, going 0-for-2 with a rally-killing double play and a flyout, but he could anchor the lineup next year and has legitimate plus raw power.

The other Stanford kids
Third baseman Stephen Piscotty is the Cardinal's best hitting prospect, and he didn't get a lot of pitches to hit as the 3-hole bat.

He did single and walk in five trips to the plate, and was also hit by a pitch. He possesses above-average power, but I'm not as big a fan as some others, perhaps due to the fact that I have only seen him three times and just once this season.

My initial thought is that if he can't play third base long term -- and that appears to be the consensus -- I'm not looking at him in the top half of the first round, perhaps not even top 20. I'll see him again Friday.

Kenny Diekroger, who moved from shortstop to second base earlier this season, is a mess at the plate; how he ever gets loft is beyond me because his swing lacks leverage and when he does make solid contact -- for example, in batting practice -- it's as if he's swinging a soggy wood bat.

There's strength, bat speed and athletic ability there, however, and he's an above-average runner, so he'll be taken by someone who believes they can fix him.

Across a crowded ... grandstand
Prior to the start of the game while the two clubs were taking batting and fielding practice, I recognized a familiar face, as I tweeted.

It was former Mariners GM and current adviser to the Philadelphia Phillies Pat Gillick. I'd met Pat before; the first time at Cheney Stadium in 2004, once again during BP.

So, because I "got nut sack," as one crosschecker termed it Thursday, I waltzed right up to Pat, reintroduced myself and sat down.

Gillick lives in Magnolia and is still as sharp as a friggin' Kasumi knife. A half hour later, I was a lot smarter, and Pat was headed to the ticket booth to, get this, "buy a ticket."

Yes, Gillick didn't use a credential of any kind to get in, he bought a ticket. He also went unrecognized by anyone else in the stadium, or at least it seemed. Tragic.

Gillick is a legend. I don't care what anyone says about the state of the farm system when he left or that the team didn't win a World Series with him at the helm. He's the only GM the team has ever had that won consistently -- every year he was here they won 90-plus games, and the year before he got here they lost more than they won.

He has three titles with two teams and is the last Baltimore Orioles GM to make the playoffs. That last one alone makes him a Hall of Famer.

We talked draft, we talked M's, we talked traffic near Safeco. As we parted -- he was walking toward he ticket booth -- he quipped "is this the only school in D-1 that charges more to park then to get into the game?"

When I shared the experience with a scout via text, I received this in reply: "lucky bastard. I love him."

Just thought I'd share.

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Comments
The following 7 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: johnfree on 04-06-2012 02:09:28
I've seen Appel a few times and wasn't blown away. I really hope the M's don't pick him. What kind of % chances are there for A)The M's to pick him and B)Zunino and Buxton go 1, 2 in either order.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-06-2012 02:14:45
I don't know what the M's think of Appel, and to be fair, he's been very good about half of his outings and just meh the other half.

I don't think Zunino goes 1 or 2.

3. By: dewey on 04-06-2012 06:20:46
Compare this guy to Hultzen who has more upside and who was better at this time last year? Im guessing thats why Gillick is as good as he is very humble and doesnt want to be treated special good to hear he is still involved in baseball.

4. By: KyleB on 04-06-2012 09:26:24
Agree completely on Appel. I was not blown away at all. Do you really have a 95 MPH fastball if you can't command it against a light-hitting college team?

5. By: batman on 04-06-2012 11:04:10
I really want to meet Gillick so I could ask him how hard Steve Dalkowski really threw.

Also, Jason, since you don't think Appel or Zunino will go 1-1, who do you think the Astros would pick?

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-06-2012 11:22:12
batman,

I didn't say Houston wouldn't take Appel. I said I wouldn't.

I do not believe Zunino goes 1 or 2.

dewey,

Appel v. Hultzen: Upside is all Appel, he throws a lot harder, has the physicality to be a horse. But the dude might be a reliever, too. He was very mediocre Thursday. I'd pick Kyle Zimmer before Appel.

Gillick is a legend. A gem. A legemd. New word.

7. By: DUWORKSON on 04-07-2012 14:26:46
Good info. The Gerrit Cole comparison doesn't excite me as well. Considering I saw Cole pitch a few times last year and I thought he was average at best. He wasn't even the best pitcher on the mound those days. Great fastball minimal command.

If Apple is available at the third pick I'm all for passing on the kid especially when drafting that high.

Jason, can you give us a scouting report on Zimmer? Whats his potential upside. Who do you compare him to? Does he attack the strike zone. What's his demeanor when hes on the mound? How long would it take the kid to see the show?

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