| By Chris Crawford |  | By 10-16-2010 |
What Ichiro Suzuki has done for the Seattle Mariner organization in the last ten years has been well documented, and justfiably so. The numbers he has put up in his 10 years have been downright gawdy, and he will be a certain first ballot hall-of-famer.
But all good things must come to an end, and it's time to discuss whether or not Ichiro should be in Seattle next season.
Note: We know that the chance the M's actually make such a move is pretty much zero, considering the financial asset he is for the club when it comes to merchandise sales, selling tickets and being the sole reason Japanese corporations pay big money for in-stadium advertisement. The exposure the clubs gets in Japan wouldn't go away if Ichiro were dealt, but it would likely take a big hit.
Last year, Ichiro put up decent -- but not overwhelming -- offensive numbers, posting a .754 OPS and slugging under .400 for the second time in three years. He did steal 41 bases, and had his best UZR since 2006, showing that his legs haven't betrayed him yet. Despite the low slugging percentage and only walking 45 times, Ichiro still was close to a five WAR player which was twice as much as the next highest Mariner (Franklin Gutierrez, 2.3)
Ichiro, even at his advanced age, is still a very useful player -- there isn't really much of a debate about his ability. The question comes in terms of value. Ichiro will celebrate his 37th birthday next Friday, and even with the deferments in his contract Seattle still owes the right-fielder $32 million dollars over the next two seasons. $16 million dollars per year is a lot of money for anyone. But a declining Ichiro is being paid a lot of money to lead a rebuilding franchise into another fourth-place finish in the American League West.
And no, you don't give Ichiro away. He's your best offensive player, your most marketable player, and a defensive stalwart. But right now, Ichiro has more value than any other player on this team aside from Felix Hernandez. When you consider just how bad two of the past three years have been, it may make some cringe to think of this offense without the gimme 200 hits and 35 to 50 steals. It also could make you cringe that you missed out
on a chance to get a solid return for Ichiro when he's OPSing below .750, which is a genuine possibility, if not borderline likely.
Is it time to trade Ichiro?
Prospect Insider has consistently asked talent evaluators, including an assistant GM and a former big-league GM with a six playoff appearances to his credit, about the idea, and here is the result of those inquiries.
"I would traded him two years ago. His value was still pretty high then. But I don't know what clubs are going to give you right now. Would Jack be able to net two legit everyday players and a couple of high-upside teenagers for Ichiro? I just don't know that there is a team out there that would pull that trigger, and that would be what it would take for me to say OK, trade Ichiro. Otherwise, you just keep making money off him and enjoy his presence. He's still a good player."
"No chance, no how, there is now way I would pay value for him. Why? Because I know what they think of him over there, and they'd ask for twice what they got for Cliff Lee. He's not worth that to us, and there are very few organizations that could take advantage of his marketability like Seattle has been able to do. San Fran might be a fit, either New York team, maybe the Dodgers. But Detroit, the White Sox, Cubs, Phillies, all the other teams that might be able to afford it? I can't see how they would get the return the M's have gotten, even just off the field."
"I guess it depends on where Jack and their ownership think they are right now. Do they really think they can contend before 2012? Because if so, you're going to want to have Ichiro there and avoid creating another hole to fill in right and at the top (of the batting order). It probably comes down to whether trading Ichiro could cut their rebuild time in half. It's what, at least a year or two now, maybe three. Can they get a No. 2 starter and a young everyday outfielder for Ichiro? You tell me, but I say they can't do it, even if they offered another player. He's too old for most to have interest and give up that kind of package to pay him that kind of money for two years."
discussion:-trading-ichiro
Comments
The following 106 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 18:08:54 I'm not sure I get the point here. The M's make a good deal of money through his presence. We know they're not trading him. Your sources say a trade is unlikely to make sense. His WAR approximately justifies his contract. What is there to discuss? |
| 2. By: Marlin Man on 10-16-2010 18:30:04 Have you ever seen the amount of young Japanese tourists/fans that travel from Tokyo to Japan to see him play? Japan/Ichiro/Seattle--- it all goes together and will as long as present ownership is intact/control. I would venture to bet that Ichiro will never play in another Major league city. as previous poster said- WHAT is there to dsicuss on this topic? M.M. |
| 3. By: Kevin on 10-16-2010 19:03:20 I'd say that the reason for discussing this is that every off season, especially when the M's have a bad year, the topic is brought up all the time whether it be blogs or newspapers or national media. I for one really appreciate the insider approach to this piece and it helps shut down all the "trade Ichiro" talk that we are undoubtedly going to hear this off season. Thanks for the quotes Chris! |
| 4. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 19:48:24 So, in order to shut down trade talk, we should discuss trading him? |
| 5. By: Lamda on 10-16-2010 20:39:08 In the offseason we have nothing to do but post about a variety of topics, this is just one of them. If you don't like it, don't post on it - simple as that. For example,I know the idiots at ussm will put out another, and I mean another, thread about how we should sign Nick Johnson again this offseason, lol. They do it every year and its incredibly worthless. I won't post on it though, lol. As to Ichi - he probably should be traded but only if he brings back something of real value. Sure he brings in revenue from Japan but the execs haven't increased the payroll 10 mill or so to reflect it so all that revenue is worthless to talk about. |
| 6. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 21:30:38 How do you know the payroll is not $10M higher than it would be without Ichiro? |
| 7. By: Chris Crawford on 10-16-2010 21:40:15 Sorry you don't like the article. I hear bleacher report is looking for commentators. Yeesh. |
| 8. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 21:40:23 For the record, if the post had instead been titled "Trading Ichiro: Not Going to Happen," I would get it. But, the post is titled "Discussion: Trading Ichiro." Then, all avenues of discussion are properly cut off. I just don't understand the point. |
| 9. By: micahjr on 10-16-2010 21:50:52 No. It is not time to talk about trading Ichiro. Maybe post should be called: "Should we trade Ichiro if they offer the world?" |
| 10. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 21:51:39 Now, after seeing the comment by Chris, I feel bad. I probably didn't mean to come off as dickish as I did. For the most part I like the work you guys do and have been following the website for years. I just didn't get this one. |
| 11. By: Chris Crawford on 10-16-2010 21:59:41 I don't get what's not to get. The reasons are outlined as to why exploring an Ichiro trade makes sense. We explained that this is hypothetical because it's unlikely to happen. Doesn't mean it doesn't need to be discussed. It's unlikely that Jose Lopez develops plate discipline, it's unlikely Felix ever falls out of love with his fastball and it's unlikely that Josh Lueke ever throws a pitch for the M's. It doesn't mean these things shouldn't be discussed. If I'm the mariners, I trade Ichiro right, flippin, now. The 16 million dollars that he makes can be a lot better sent, and I'm not paying eight figures to a a guy who can't get on base 38 percent of the time and can't slug over .400. Almost a zero percent chance of it happening, the article exists to show two things. 1. It gives all of you rosterbators a chance to explore what an Ichiro trade would bring in. 2. It shows you that the team is paying him entirely too much money to be a good player, and if they can make a trade for him, so be it. I promise you, just because I give you the reasons he won't be traded, or why is value isn't that high? It's a worthwhile discussion. |
| 12. By: Bionic_ben23 on 10-16-2010 22:06:48 realistically, unless the mariners are willing to let the griffey thing blow up again in they're faces then so be it. Otherwise, i've been saying that it's time to trade ichiro off and really start fresh, and now aparently someone else agrees with me. it's sorta like with wedgie being hired. on one hand, it's an interesting move and on the other, i'm not sure that it was the wrong move either. |
| 13. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 22:36:37 OK. Given his performance this year, 4.8 WAR according to Fangraphs, and the market value for wins, about $4M last offseason and likely on the rise, how do the M's spend that $16M better? The market value of his services last offseason was about $19M. This is, of course, not taking his marketability into account at all. 4.8 WAR is good enough for about the 30th best position player in baseball. I think calling him a good player is a bit of an understatement. I understand he could decline, but I think we all recognize we are dealing with a different type of human when we talk about Ichiro. People have been predicting decline for years. With regard to him leading them to another fourth place finish, I had an interesting discussion with Tango at his blog some time ago. My contention was that the marginal value of a win depended on what situation the team was in. Tango felt that the marginal value of a win (in terms of revenue generation) was about the same regardless of situation, except if the win(s) affected playoff chances, in which case it was higher. If we accept Tango's argument, which I am likely to do without convincing evidence to the contrary, Ichiro's WAR is completely justified by his contract (assuming his decline will be small). He brings in more revenue than the cost of his contract and is about the 30th best position player in baseball. Now, if someone offers a ridiculous amount of talent in return then, obviously, you trade him. But, that goes for any player. I just don't understand why you are for trading him without such an offer. As for the rosterbation, I'll let the rosterbators rosterbate. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-16-2010 22:38:57 If you don't like the topics here, go elsewhere. That's all. |
| 15. By: mfan_ on 10-16-2010 22:44:22 Done. |
| 16. By: Bionic_ben23 on 10-16-2010 23:03:55 Props to Crawford for this post. If I had some sorta credibility as a blogger that he does then I would of been the first to put this topic up. Really though, Chris is right. In the eyes of a sportsfan/ blogger, it shouldn't be all that far fetched to discuss the possibilities of what trading Ichiro would mean after another 101 loss season. |
| 17. By: Chris Crawford on 10-16-2010 23:05:53 Sorry you don't like the article. I hear bleacher report is looking for commentators. Yeesh. |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-16-2010 23:08:53 mfan's entire account has been deleted, because he apparently thinks he's too cool for school, or something, and canceled his premium subscription. I hope he thinks that means I have to eat Ramen for the next several weeks. |
| 19. By: Chris Crawford on 10-16-2010 23:10:39 Sorry you don't like the article. I hear bleacher report is looking for commentators. Yeesh. |
| 20. By: rocketdawg31 on 10-17-2010 00:01:43 Well, I do like the article, and consider it an absolutely worthy topic. But here's my view on Ichiro Suzuki. The only way I trade him is if he himself requests to be so. And then I concern myself with what I can get back. He's not a rank-and-file major-leaguer, he is a special case by anybody's definition. But, okay then. Then who do we surround him with? Even if he's- as I suspect- an athlete who maintains productivity into his age-40s years, there's simply no guarantee we'll be in position to win by the time his cleats are ready for wall. I'd start off with a meeting. Show him respect...and broach the honest topic of how he wants to spend the next 2-3 years- traded to a team likely to contend or go ahead and come along for this particular rollercoaster, and let the chips fall where they may. Let Ichiro have a big hand in deciding the rest of his string. |
| 21. By: bohawk on 10-17-2010 04:45:11 Not sure what that guy's problem was. It is not as if we have anything better to discuss. Fwiw, I would trade Ichiro to get his salary off the books and to jump start the rebuilding now if we could net fair value in return but agree that isn't going to happen. |
| 22. By: FelixElRey on 10-17-2010 07:19:19 Because a city hates to admit rebuilding, and because the average Mariners fan would likely boycot them if they traded Ichiro, the Mariners need to be able to say that Ichiro wanted to be traded. I think rocketdawg's approach is a good way to go, not only to give Ichiro the respect that he deserves, but so that the M's can go public about the situation and say, "hey, he's been amazing for us and deserves a ring. He feels he would have a better chance in another city, and we did everything we could to make that happen" (we would do this after trading him so as not to weaken our negotiations, of course) |
| 23. By: all4ms on 10-17-2010 08:19:53 Doesn't Ichiro now have the right to veto all trades? He's a 10-5, isn't he? (i.e. 10 years of service in MLB, 5 with the same team) Can't see why he'd agree to play for another ballclub. |
| 24. By: i.hit.leadoff. on 10-17-2010 09:10:21 I'm with rocketdawg31. Ichiro seems to take a lot responsibility for the team and the way they play. He wants to win for the fans. I'd say ask him and then go from there. He deserves to win and probably knows its not gonna happen here. Thats all, leave it up to him. Either him do a favor or let him stay if he really wants to. (Know it wont happen though) |
| 25. By: lewis on 10-17-2010 10:13:58 Wow! Why is everyone so defensive? It just sounds like a difference of opinion. Guy 1 writes about a topic he likes, guy 2 doesn't understand why guy 1 even bothered, guy 3 calls out guy2 over nothing guy 2 storms out. Oh, I get it...that just happened with my kids in this house. |
| 26. By: banton on 10-17-2010 11:29:37 I realize that it is a long shot, however I would like to see Ichiro go to a contender for a couple of reasons: He, more than anyone since Edgar, has earned it. Ask him if he wants to go. His on base abilities aside, he does not warrant keeping if we have no one to drive him in. We are at least a couple of years away from contending. This team's front office needs to commit to total rebuild, and announce it as such. Based on the above statement, it is hard to justify getting someone else in the line-up that would take over for Ichiro in a couple of years; give a kid some seasoning, so that when we are ready to take on the West we will have someone ready in right field. Yes, the team revenues will take a hit, but journeymen and rookies come cheap. Fans will not go to the games just because Ichiro is here, any more than they quit going when Junior picked up his marbles and cried his way home. I'm just sayin'............. |
| 27. By: Lailoken on 10-17-2010 11:34:26 IMO, any serious thought of trading Ichiro should take into account the money he makes for the franchise. The source who talks about NY, LA, & SF being the only viable trade partners is right on. He more than earns his salary in performance & fans in the seats. I'd rather see us go the other direction. The talk about Dice-K being available is intriguing. Trade for Matsuzaka & sign Nakajima. You get a better team with many more fans in the seats. This ownership group has made it clear that the budget for salaries is directly tied to incoming money from ticket sales. If those players play well the reward for the risk would be a bigger budget come 2012 when Bradley & Wilson come off the books. Darvish might also be posted that offseason. Those are the kind of developments that can really speed up the rebuilding process. |
| 28. By: rjfrik on 10-17-2010 11:41:50 There is just no way you can trade Ichiro unless it's for a haul that you cannot pass up. I guess if Cinnci wanted to give us Votto, Bruce and Chapman or LA wanted to give us Kemp, Eithier and Kershaw then I would do it. I know you are going to think a haul like this for Ichiro is crazy but in my opinion this is the type of value that Ichiro gives to the M's. He is arguably the most valuable Mariner of all time. More so then Griffey Jr. |
| 29. By: maqman on 10-17-2010 11:52:44 No problem here to me. Chris brought up a valid subject with a realistic appraisal. One I'm sure will be discussed on other blogs during the off-season. I think Ichi is worth his paycheck and then some. The money he brings in to the team pays his way and for some of the other players as well. There should be a better chance that Derek Jeter signs with Boston than the Ms trade Ichi. However it never entered my mind that they could trade for Cliff Lee last off-season, so what do I know? The only way it happens is if he tells the owner when he meets with him after the season (as he does reportedly after every season is over) that he wants to be traded to a contender. Given Japanese cultural norms this is not likely to happen, however if the owner asks him if he wants to be traded and he does want to and says so then it will happen. No other way. |
| 30. By: Jerry on 10-17-2010 13:03:33 I have always found it strange how violently M's fans respond to this topic. For me, I think the marketing issue is way overblown. If the M's keep losing, their revenue will continue to go down. Attendance is tied to winning. They need to build a consistent contender. They can't keep fielding a shitty team and expect Ichiro to keep making cash for them. Winning 90 games on a regular basis is the best way to get asses in seats and advertising dollars. The big issue is Ichiro's age versus were the club is right now. They aren't likely to contend until 2011 at the earliest. Jack is committed to building the club the right way, and that will take some time. By the time that Ackley, Smoak, Moore, Pineda, Saunders, etc are over their growing pains, Ichiro will be way past his prime. It is certainly possible that he'll keep playing at a high level till age 40, but is that really a safe thing to bet on? I don't think so. The window for this organization is 2012-2015. If Ichiro isn't likely to contribute during that time, and they could get young players who could in a trade, they'd be stupid to not explore the option. If they don't deal him now, then what? He's on the books for two more years at a relatively reasonable salary. If they keep him past this offseason, his value just goes down. What happens after the 2012 season, when his contract is up? Do you let him walk? Resign him to a multi-year contract at age 39? Its not just a decision of whether to keep him or not. If they don't deal him this year, the question soon becomes whether you keep him till he retires. Trading him would be a tough thing to do, obviously. But anyone who knows anything about baseball knows the M's are entering a transitional stage. I won't pretend to know what Ichiro thinks about this issue, but I wouldn't be surprised if he'd welcome the opportunity to play for a contender. The guy is 37, and hasn't won a title in Japan or the US. If he's thinking about his legacy in the sport, and a championship is important to him at all, I'd think he'd be open to the idea of moving to a contender. Of course, the M's would have to be getting back a lot of talent to take the PR and revenue hit. But I'd have to think that the market for Ichiro would be pretty healthy. Every team that misses on Carl Crawford would have to be interested, as they are similar types of players. After Crawford, who else is there in free agency? Jason Werth? What if the M's could work out a deal with the Dodgers involving Matt Kemp and prospects? Or the Giants, including some of their pitching (Madison Bumgarner or Jonathan Sanchez + prospects). Or the Yankees, with Phil Hughes as a centerpiece. Then turn around and invest the money saved on winning the Yu Darvish raffle, plus signing Nakajima. That would help offset the Japanese fan effect, while bringing in players who will likely still be in their primes when the M's are ready to contend. I'm not sure why this is so controversial. It makes a lot of sense to me. This is what teams in the M's position do. They trade aging vets to speed up rebuilding. |
| 31. By: Missthosepilots on 10-17-2010 13:20:13 Chris, thanks for the article! Should be great to talk about. But every party has a pooper eventually. Hey, maybe if I had this thread as a kid I would have dealt better with Lenny Wilkens getting sent to Cleveland! It was Cleveland wasn't it? LOL! Chris, the quotes were very good and insightful. I guess that is why very few people ever can sell a stock at the very top. You want to think it will keep its value. We can hope for someone to be pushing Ichiro out in the next couple of years because they are playing so well! |
| 32. By: Galway on 10-17-2010 15:33:33 Hypothetically lets put the fact that he is not going to be traded aside. So if he is in play what to do? I think the answer depends on the M's payroll. If the M's get serious and take advantage of their larger than average revenues then maybe an extra $20 mill onto payroll and the team can attempt to speed up its improvement. If they decide to stay as is or continue to cut payroll its pointless to keep him from a baseball perspective because by the time a bunch of kids who have not accomplished anything in the bigs yet are ready Ichiro will be almost done (not to mention odds are most of the kids do not reach their ceilings, not M's specific just odds). Hanging your hat on someday, and tossing money at just enough names to try and put butt in the seats too me results in spinning the wheels. So what are the M's willing to do? What's their timeline? Answer those and the hypothetical Ichiro question answers itself. |
| 33. By: rightwingrick on 10-17-2010 16:23:01 I'd move Ichiro....all the way to the #3 slot in the batting lineup. What other team has two legitimate lead-off guys, one of who is among the very best hitters in baseball, and no current #3? Well, that would be Seattle. If Figgins (your other legit leadoff hitter) is going to 3B (likely) and Ackley coming up to 2B (likely)...and Ackley handles the bat very well...why not make them your 1,2,3 men? |
| 34. By: CrustyJuggler on 10-17-2010 17:15:08 Wow, guys, this comment section looks a little too much like a USSM creation. Mfan_ was a little snarky with his first post but acknowledged that, apologized and came back with a very thought out and informative reply. ....Then he gets dog-piled on by the collective? I thought Cameron and his legion of sycophants had the copyright on that? Personally I think its an interesting topic but VERY hypothetical. Simply put; trading Ichiro would be a PR tight wire act and there's no way Seattle could get enough to justify the move. All the reasons why we SHOULD trade Ichiro are the same reasons why other teams wouldn't overpay for him. He's old, he gets payed a lot, he's overdue for decline, etc, etc.. Its just so extremely unlikely that I can see why some would ask the question of 'why even talk about it?'. |
| 35. By: Adam T on 10-17-2010 18:51:31 If I'm the mariners, I trade Ichiro right, flippin, now. The 16 million dollars that he makes can be a lot better sent, and I'm not paying eight figures to a a guy who can't get on base 38 percent of the time and can't slug over .400. SECONDED. Either you re-sign the guy now to keep him here to retirement or you explore a trade. I don't see his value increasing before his contract ends after 2012. And whatever how small it may be, there is a chance that he goes somewhere else after this contract runs out. At some point, all that supposed (I use this word because I've never really seen any estimation of how much Ichiro really is worth to the franchise - I'm open to being swayed) money he brings in is going to go away. Do you wait until that day and risk being left with absolutely nothing except perhaps a couple of draft picks, or do make a move now? I'd think San Fran, the Dodgers, the NY teams, and perhaps Boston would have the most interest. I'd ask for at least one ML-ready or established young player along with a B or higher prospect and move forward. I'm curious whether there is any sentiment in the Mariner FO to at least explore a deal. |
| 36. By: jackson22 on 10-17-2010 21:49:25 Wow. I feel like I am back in my daycare days when the motto was "if you can't say something nice then don't say anything at all". Basically... if you have the slightest bad opinion about any of the writers on this website...you will be banned. So everyone straighten up and think the way Chris Crawford and Jason A. Churchill tell you to think... or else they will prove you wrong by banning you apparently. |
| 37. By: micahjr on 10-18-2010 00:42:14 Mfan_on, didn't get banned, he got tired of being abused and took his money elsewhere. Chris Crawford repeatedly hurled bleacher report insults at him--at least come up with a new retort: that one made Chris sound like a net troll-neanderthal hybrid. Jason Churchill told him if he didn't like the site owners' opinions he could go elsewhere: not a good way to attract new subscribers. He did. This article is not worth the time it took to type it. The arguments are the same every single year: Ichiro is assumed to decline soon, and his contract is expensive, so we should trade him. Just because it gets discussed every year doesn't mean it's worth discussing. Crawford could have written this in 2008, 2009, or 2010. He can write it next year, too. I pay a subscription because once or twice a month there is some really good baseball information, and that is well worth the price of admission. I don't like the culture over here, for the most part. There is a lot of elitist attitude. Way worse than at USSM where they will just make a dick joke about you. Jason was a total jerk in post 14 and 18. I suspect he feels entitled to be. I applaud the guy for leaving. He shouldn't be abused for making a statement, that happened to be correct, that disagrees with the premise for writing the article. The article is baseless conjecture appearing two months too early to be a relevant discussion put out there to appeal to the lowest common denominator and fill production space creating the illusion of site material. Only the last quote was particularly illuminating. I expect better from, Chris, Jason, and Positive Paul. You guys are too good for this. It's the kind of stuff that posters put up in the official Mariners forums. I, for one, want Ichiro to get his 3000th MLB hit in a Mariners uniform--should happen by age 42 or so @150 hits/season. I would be willing to bet that fans would turn out to see it. I want Ichiro to be our Mr. Cub. I only hope we win one for him. I hope future material is better than this, and responses to criticism are less mean-spirited. My apologies for the long post. |
| 38. By: VikingArthur on 10-18-2010 02:23:05 As someone with a large unrelated website myself (certainly larger than this one) there will ALWAYS be readers that disagree with you and call you an idiot, a clown, etc. You can do three things. 1) Dismantle the idiot who disagrees with you with facts (hard to do in this case). 2) Say "hey thanks for reading, sorry you didn't enjoy the article, your opinion is noted" or just ignore the comment altogether. 3) Or act like a child and tell people leave if they don't like your article. Truth is that people will do #3 anyway if they don't like enough articles, there is no reason to hasten that. Writer to writer Chris, stop being offended if someone doesn't like your work. It is not personal. On the topic of Ichiro, I have heard a lot about the financial impact of Ichiro and certainly I would agree with that early on in his career here but I think it may be a bit overstated. That said, if he brings in $5 mil in revenue solely, that makes his salary $11 mil. An affordable contract and certainly commensurate for his talents. Can we get half the player that he is for that? Maybe but prior experiences with free agents (Jack notwithstanding) says Hell No we can't. I am sure there were a ton of people who thought "Trade Ichiro and sign Jason Bay". Well, unless you get a haul of prospects (hard to believe you would considering unique value to this franchise, age and contract) that would simply not make sense. |
| 39. By: aerichner on 10-18-2010 09:18:01 I like Ichiro quite a bit but I dont mind if he gets dealt + I dont mind having Figgins leading off next season. Lets say we deal him, do you pocket the 16 million and play a young guy there or do you spend the 16 million elsewhere? Since I dont like the what the M's have in the OF right now in terms of prospects other than Saunders (and Im not 100% on board there) I would like to spend the 16 million. On who? I dont have a clue right now and throwing names out there is a waste since the player has to want to come over and that's a tough sell right now. If Texas whiffs on Berkman, I'd pay him (always liked him) and I'd try to trade for Grady (local guy, replaces Ichiro,etc) and spend whatever there's left on a #2 pitcher. I hate watching Dice-K but if he's available I'd consider him too. Felix-DiceK-Pineda-Vargas-someone..don't mind that. Will trading for Grady/DiceK and signing a Berkman type happen? Probably not but trading Ichiro probably has less of a chance and that's what I'd do with the money if we deal him (sort of the point of the post, no?) That's just 60% of me, the other 40% wouldnt mind letting the kids play, but I prefer for them to spend the money on short contracts than just pocket the money. |
| 40. By: Edman on 10-18-2010 09:29:14 Getting back to the subject, and away from the distractions, I actually pretty much ignore subject matter like this. It can certainly be debated to death (see Lueke, Josh), but the idea of Seattle trading Ichiro may be a novel concept, but it won't happen. We all know the reasons why. I find that these discussions only tend to infuriate those on both sides of the debate. I'd like the Brewers to trade Fielder to the M's four four spare-part minor leaguers. Isn't gonna happen. I'd like the M's to win the World Series next year. It is an extremely remote possibility. We can all debate Ichiro's worth, but what we think, doesn't matter. I have found few examples where trading a superstar ever returns close to what you lost. There is merit to both sides of the debate. IMHO, it still weights heavier toward keeping him, than not. I just don't think Seattle is going to trade the one guy who brings in fans on a nightly basis. They are not about to alienate what fanbase remains. Debate all you want, just don't use the debate as some kind of justification that because the M's didn't see your logic, that somehow keeping Ichiro is a failure. There are a lot of things over this last year that have been failures, but Ichiro isn't one of them. And, his departure isn't going to bring back enough to help right now. Short and long term success matters. |
| 41. By: aerichner on 10-18-2010 09:39:04 It isnt because he was a failure, it's stated in the post that he was our best player but...for what he does and what he gets paid (thats the important part) it's worth considering and I bet Jack and his staff have thought about it. We all love Ichiro but we all have to admit that 16 million is a too much for him. Keeping him because he's too popular is the wrong move. Do they deal him just to get rid of the 16 million, no, hell no, it wouldnt be a salary dump, they'd need a good deal back and I dont know if it's out there. That being said, I'll let Jack do his job (he's good at it) as long as he doesnt deal Felix and we'll see what happens. |
| 42. By: Edman on 10-18-2010 09:39:54 #39, I have a problem with the "let the kids play" mentality. Many who support that idea are not the ones paying to watch the team. It's like grasping the concept of "tax reform", without a plan. The words ring true, but execution isn't so hard to achieve. I am all for watching rookies play, to a degree. I'm a diehard M's fan, but last year, by August, I was ready to spend my time doing other things. I'd watch a game, only when nothing else was on. It wasn't entertaining. I get no rush out of Michael Saunders getting a meaningless hit in a 4-2 loss. Good for him, but at some point, the "be patient" attitude wears thin. Every spring, the team needs to make an effort to see that a couple kids join the veterans. Throwing ten kids out there to "grow up" is not a pathway to success. You're just throwing pasta at the wall and hope that some sticks. You need to bring them up in an enviroment where their every hit isn't the difference between a win and a loss. Veterans help kids transition without as much pressure. We should be talking about what Wedge brings to the table, rather than debating a move that's never gonna happen. |
| 43. By: Edman on 10-18-2010 09:41:47 execution is hard to achieve....sorry |
| 44. By: Edman on 10-18-2010 09:46:10 Keeping him when he's the ONLY popular regular, does make sense. Fans have to enter Safeco, to pay the bills. To ignore that, is wrong. I'm sure after all the accounting is done, Ichiro's contract is paid for by his popularity, both domestically and internationally. He is the face of the franchise. You can debate that Felix is, but he can't draw fans in night after night. You can't even plan when to make a trip to see Felix, until you know how the rotation is set. That is important. May not be to you, but it is to the bottom line. It takes money to keep a franchise afloat. They are not mutually exclusive of each other. |
| 45. By: aerichner on 10-18-2010 09:54:53 #42 - I think I was very clear in the I preferred the team to SPEND the money instead of letting the kids play. However I dont have a choice here, I'll watch regardless. |
| 46. By: Edman on 10-18-2010 10:02:52 #45, is watch the key word? As in watch on TV or from the stands? Fans entering Safeco are important to the revenue stream. I'm all with you in regard to Jack. I'm going to let him do his job. Trying to be a GM is something many think they can do, but in truth, they can't. Facts aren't apparent to the fans. I'll let Jack go to work and hope he finds some gems. For all that he tried that failed, the Giants had inverse luck. I find it that some praise Brian Sabean for being lucky. He made no brilliant moves. He gambled, because he had to, and it paid off. Good for him. But, it wasn't the making of a brilliant baseball mind. |
| 47. By: rocketdawg31 on 10-18-2010 11:11:28 Fans entering Safeco are important to the revenue stream. No lie there. Maybe we should be talking about where the collective heads of those fans are. Because it seems to me that the fan-base's patience is at threadbare levels, roughly equivalent to where certain pockets of President Obama's support stand today- after a couple years of frustrations (And IMHO very unrealistic expectations, but I digress). What Zduriencik really juggles this off-season is the task of making moves good for the organization... that will seem encouraging to the fan-base at the same time. And that's part of the problem. A lot of fans think if we go out and acquire a Prince Fielder, all the problems are magically solved and we win now. They don't want to think things through, like think of Fielder's contractual terms and how many good, young pieces he'd cost in order to even get here. Moreover, how likely he is to have already played his best baseball and how quickly his body-type will disintegrate from major-league-caliber. It'll be Mo Vaughn 2.0. I just don't see any moves out there that get us to contender status in 2011, and thereby rejuvenate a fan base. I see guys that could maybe help for a year or two, like Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brad Hawpe- but no guys with magic bats that get this offense going. Whether or not Joe Q. Fanboy wants to embrace this, we've got no choice but to see Zduriencik's plan play out. And pray that we get the core of a good team out of Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Adam Moore and others. And while we're praying for this, we also have to put in a side-prayer that fans don't avoid the team in legions and droves before the good days come. |
| 48. By: PositivePaul on 10-18-2010 12:19:22 Ignoring the meta discussion around why we're even discussing this topic... Since Ichiro's now a 10-5 guy and any trade of Ichiro would HAVE to involve his wishes in the discussion, you first have to look at teams that he might want to play for. Assuming he's done with the M's organization (which, well, makes this entire discussion pretty much moot anyway, as already disclaimed) what other organizations might he want to play for? Since I don't know Ichiro, I can only guess that if he was done with the M's situation, he'd want to move to a team that has a very, very good chance at a World Series berth. The only real teams that can provide this for Ichiro, at least from his perspective, likely would be: Philly Yankees Boston Other teams that at least aren't too far away: Dodgers Giants Twins Reds Texas White Sox Braves Tampa So, outside of perhaps the Mets or the Cardinals, I think the rest of the teams are out of the question as far as trade possibilities. I'd reckon Houston and Cleveland are as close to 100% no-gos as you can get. That whittles it down to 13 teams -- and 12 if you really take Tampa out because they wouldn't spend the money on Ichiro. All of the sources quoted above provide some clue as to the other parameters in the discussion: 1) He's probably worth more to Seattle than he is to other teams. 2) Seattle would ask the moon for him. 3) While he statistically has quite a bit of value (justifying the expense of his contract) other teams don't necessarily see that value the same way. Of these 12 teams, too, you have to look at who would benefit by Ichiro's presence in the lineup? Key: Team: LF, CF, RF. (Ichiro would be an upgrade somewhere) Philly: Ibanez, Victorino, Werth. (yes) Yankees: Gardner, Granderson, Swisher (yes) Boston: Cameron, Drew, Ellsbury (yes) Without fleshing out this idea fully, it's clear that all of these teams could use Ichiro in the OF somewhere and it'd be a big upgrade for them. To wrap up my thoughts, about the only way I see this as even remotely feasible is if Ichiro decides he wants to finish out his US career as, say, a Yankee -- to get the best opportunity to go to the World Series. Would the Yankees give up Montero for Ichiro? Hmmm... I'd guess no. I'd think the M's would want more than Montero, too. What about a package of, say, Swisher, Romine, & McAllister? That's probably more realistic for both sides. But for the sake of discussion -- let's narrow this idea of a trade down specifically to the Yankees. What would it take for this to work for both sides? |
| 49. By: Edman on 10-18-2010 12:39:51 Good point about the 10-5 rights. I forgot about that. What it would take is both of the following: 1. Ichiro being willing to accept a trade. 2. Seattle deciding to trade him. I don't see one happening, let alone, both. And certainly, it's not going to happen any sooner than the trading deadline in 2011, if ever. |
| 50. By: lewis on 10-18-2010 13:22:43 Ichiro is valuable right where he is. In a rebuild year, next year, there aren't a ton of things to go to the ball park for, and Ichiro is one of them. If he isn't there we better be contending or have got a ton of up and coming hopeful talent or it isn't worth the trade. |
| 51. By: rocketdawg31 on 10-18-2010 13:56:45 PositivePaul- I'm going along with the Yankees-specific trade conjecture for fun, but a couple points I'd find salient: 1. Zduriencik would have some decent fence-mending to do, he made a couple enemies in that org over the Cliff Lee deal. 2. The Yankees would only look at the acquisition of Ichiro as something to do when/if they got bounced in this Championship Series. I agree with you that Montero is a ship that's sailed. I could see a Romine and a McAllister being had, though. To headline the deal, Swisher? I'm just not a fan of his, for some reason. But I'll have to come up with a counter-piece in a few minutes. I've lost track of the Columbus AND Yankees roster. |
| 52. By: PositivePaul on 10-18-2010 14:05:52 Sure - for the sake of brevity I omitted the part where Zduriencik will have to invest in some bridge builders before he gets to deal with Cashman again. That's not an insignificant factor in this discussion, though -- you're very correct on that. The Yankees front office I'm sure is very, very hesitant to talk to Jack again. But, well, we're already dealing in won't-happened world so I skipped over that part to keep things brief :-) The second point, however, isn't necessarily true. I'd say the Yankees are aalllllllwwwaaaaays looking at improving their MLB roster since they know they can pretty much buy whatever player they want anyway. Yes, Steinbrenner rolling over in his grave and making a phone call to Cashman would happen if the Yanks are bounced from the ALCS by Texas. But I'd say that even if they won the World Series they'd still be very interested in acquiring Ichiro if he became available. That was sort of the point at looking at the "Would Ichiro fit in the OF?" question. It's not like the Yankees are loaded in superstar outfielders. There's tons of room for him there, whether or not the Yankees win the WS in 2010... |
| 53. By: Timberwolf on 10-18-2010 14:10:05 Ichiro is overpaid for what he actually delivers, but he is an icon in Seattle. He also sells tickets and tourism packages that an equivalent sabermetric player would not. His role as the first Japanese position player to successfully come to MLB enhances his stature and place in baseball history. It is amazing to me that a consistent ten year record of a .331 BA, 200 hits, 30 stolen bases, and gold glove defense can be regarded so lightly by some. Ichiro simply has a much higher value in Seattle than he would have anywhere else. Unless he really wanted to leave in a July trade to a playoff contender with a hole in their line-up, it just isn't going to happen. Do you really want to trade him for Brett Gardner, Chad Gaudin, and a raw arm from AA? The shrinking number of Cal Ripken Jr, Tony Gwynn, Edgar Martinez types who play an entire career with one team makes staying here a more attractive option for Ichiro. It is highly questionable that a new team and new fan base would give Ichiro the personal space he enjoys here for his idiosyncracies. |
| 54. By: PositivePaul on 10-18-2010 15:40:33 Honestly, I don't think Ichiro is overpaid for what he delivers -- value is value, and Ichiro certainly provides value ON the field that earns his contract -- $19 Million in WAR according to Fangraphs for 2010 (and his non-performance value is certainly very high in Seattle). It's how he provides his value in the context of the rest of the team that is a challenge for the Mariners. Performance value (WAR, as commonly accepted) is calculated on run values assigned to individuals' statistics, and defense is factored into the equation. I'm fine with the metrics, mostly, and I don't think Ichiro is overpaid at all, even if you exclude the non-performance dollars (i.e. marketing, name-recognition, etc...) Ichiro brings in. The problem for the Mariners is that in a lot of ways the non-theoretical value (i.e. the actual number of runs that Ichiro scores vs. the calculated run-value of Ichiro's production based on the latest statistical measurements) isn't directly seen because unless Ichiro steals every base including home once he's ON base, it's up to others to drive him in (and, hence, provide the actual RUNS that lead directly to wins & losses). While he continues to get on base about the same number of times each year (250-275) the number of runs he scored has dwindled significantly the last few years. And therein lies why we're even having this discussion, really. If you can trade Ichiro to help with that problem, then certainly you explore it. But, ultimately, you may well be "robbing Peter to pay Paul" as the saying goes. |
| 55. By: ripperlv on 10-18-2010 15:54:14 I don't know, the Mariners can lose 100 games with or without Ichiro. I could care less how that affects Japanese tourist. I've always thought he's just a singles hitter whos capable of being a gap hitter and better suited at #3. His base running - seems to me, like he's often picking the wrong spots (timing wise to steal). None the less, he's a first round HOF, but I still think all the money the M's (owner) spent on him could have been better utilized. I guess I like the old school player additute that Ichiro doesn't seem to possess. |
| 56. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 10-18-2010 17:55:11 Chris I normaly appreciate what you write. The next time you are thinking of writing something like this, use your brain, and don't. Ichiro is not in decline he had a down year on one of the worst offensive teams in MLB history. In fact there are arguments to be made that his 2009 season was the best of his career. Like I said, use your head. |
| 57. By: Missthosepilots on 10-18-2010 19:39:51 Guys, I keep too busy coaching during the season to post. But I have enjoyed the articles and many comments for a few years. Some of you, maybe like the M's, could use a good manager to get right in some faces. Honestly, if you don't like something, whether an article or a comment, get over it. This is supposed to be fun...so enjoy! If you disagree, such is life isn't it? Thanks to many of you for your insights through the last few seasons. Looking foward to the ones ahead...with a few more W's to enjoy as well! |
| 58. By: jackson22 on 10-18-2010 21:05:33 Missthosepilots, you are right, this is supposed to be a fun site... but are we not allowed to give our opinions? How can this be a fun site when we know if we don't share the opinion of the writer that we will be ridiculed by both him and the owner of the site, along with facing a possible ban if we defend ourselves? That doesn't sound like fun to me at all. |
| 59. By: Missthosepilots on 10-18-2010 21:50:16 Good point Jackson. I don't think that actual disagreement(s)is usually the real problem but the form that it comes in. I hope that makes sense. If comments are flowing in a stream of arrogance, sarcasim or flippancy.....then yes, trouble. I quit even looking at some other known and good sites because of the foolish bantering. If I am wrong there, then treat this like any human relationship should be treated - write personally to Jason or Chris to express your frustration rather than plastering it on the side of the building for all to see and so they can also throw in their own 2 cents. And if it doesn't seem to help, put it into perspective that life does not boil down to what anyone says here anyway. I bet that works. If not, I would be surprised. Still in that, baseball is a game to be enjoyed. I coach HS ball and some guys scream at everything that moves, good or bad. In the end, that spoils it for all. It is a thinking man's game that requires skill. Exercise mixed with discipline. No robots and calls which are anything but. Yes, that can be frustrating....but should be a fun frustrating! Keep hanging in there Jackson!! |
| 60. By: PositivePaul on 10-19-2010 00:22:31 I'm gettin' daaaaaang close to pulling out the NKOTB lyrics... Nobody gets to tell us what to write here. It's very clear what the subject of the post contains by the title. If you don't want to READ another article on the subject then by all means don't. I'm the last person in the world to be rude to people, almost, but if people are going to slam the conversation with "DON'T WRITE THIS" then, well, I'm not going to be happy either. It's absolutely discussion worthy, however likely it might be, to discuss whether or not Ichiro SHOULD be traded. And if he should - what information do we have as to his trade value and who might be interested. Heck, I've almost turned this discussion into reasons why I think Ichiro may well push for a trade this offseason -- making this entire discussion a non-moot point. While it's pretty well consensus that the M's are not in any hurry to trade Ichiro, I'm not convinced the chances of it happening are basically zero. But I'll save that for a different day... Ichiro IS in decline. His body is getting older, and the forces of nature will catch up to him (showing up in injuries, lower power numbers, and slower speed). While I would never, ever bet against Ichiro, and he may well play until he's 50 (whether here or in Japan), it's easy to see that he's not the player he was when he came to the U.S. That's not to say that his fall will be precipitous. Not one bit. He's the player I'd vote the strongest, actually, for being able to sustain himself and adjust his game for the effects of aging. He's got the best hand-eye coordination I've ever seen in any player, and that's an asset that he can use to his advantage in making the adjustments he needs. About the only thing that's predictable with Ichiro is that he'll get 200 hits somehow someway. All of the statistical model predicting engines have a very tough time predicting what exactly Ichiro will do, and his numbers fluctuate all over the map (likely because he's not a very patient hitter -- relying on contact and speed and bat control to get on base over taking a base on balls). Still, Ichiro IS getting older. That's a fact. Players decline when they get older, that's a fact* (*unless you're BALCO Bonds). While Ichiro's decline certainly won't follow the traditional paths, he will slow down some day and it may creep up soon in the form of missing games due to nagging injury, being a lot more conservative with his fielding, and in his power numbers. But aside from that -- how much longer is Ichiro going to wait for the M's to build another team around him? He may be an aggressive hitter but he's got to be the most patient teammate around to have to live, every day, day in day out, with the absolute stench that the Mariners teams have produced the last several years (save for 2009). I can't imagine what he went through in 2008 with the clubhouse jackassery that went on with him. I can't imagine how challenging it is for HIM having to put up with the fact that the M's have gone through soooo many managers in the last 4-5 years. We as fans are frustrated to the point of cynicism, certainly, but Ichiro is far closer to the situation than we are. Ichiro's not the problem. The question is, then, is he part of the solution? Can trading him (to circle right back to the top of this thread) be part of that solution? That opportunity may have been missed... |
| 61. By: Edman on 10-19-2010 02:23:51 I am not a big subscriber to the "trade assets and get better" crowd. People remember the blockbuster trades that work, and forget the ones that failed. How much better did Cleveland get by trading Sabbathia, Lee, etc? They got more out of trades with Seattle that brought them Choo and Cabrerra, at least at the moment. Teams just don't make those blockbuster deals anymore. There is huge risk in making those deals. Seldom, do you get better. Then add to it the "$16 million" better spent elsewhere. Fine, but that's no guarantee either. Sure, you might be able to sign a different bat, but just like Ichiro by himself, one player is not going to make a difference. And, spreading it around to several players isn't a guarantee of success. Bottom line is, Ichiro is going to give you consistancy. You know what to expect at a minimum, with the potential of even more. There's a reason that you don't throw in two aces, while trying to draw to a straight. Aces always have a chance to win, and getting what you need for a straight is a big risk. I guess it depends on how you like to gamble. But, there is no easy answer or easy fix. I have no problem with Chris' article. I just think it's futile, because it realistically isn't going to happen. All it does is ignite those on both sides of the issue. I'd much rather talk about who Wedge might hire as his coaches. Or, possible gems out there in the minor league free agent market. |
| 62. By: Marco on 10-19-2010 04:23:55 Trading Ichiro and his 16-million contract is not guarantee at all to pick up somebody better. The real problem is that the M's have been unable in recent years to field a decent lineup behind the best leadoff hitter of all time. That's the real issue with people who run this club, they simply failed and should pay for it (i.e. their job) - that should be the real discussion IMO. |
| 63. By: slamcactus on 10-19-2010 08:41:35 Three years ago, with an awful team and Ichiro approaching free agency, this was a discussion worth having. Today, there's just no chance that Ichiro doesn't play out at least his current contract. And he's worth it. Even at .315/.359/.394 he's worth it. And his 2008 season was virtually identical to this one, causing a lot of people to speculate that he was finally declining. He responded with the second-best WRC+ of his career in '09. We've got a 4-5 win player in right field for the next 2 years at near market rate. Deal with it. |
| 64. By: slamcactus on 10-19-2010 08:54:09 "Teams just don't make those blockbuster deals anymore." Um, yes they do. The Lee and Oswalt trades were the blockbuster deals this past year. Prince Fielder will likely leave Milwaukee before he hits free agency, and Adrian Gonzalez could go either way, depending on whether the Padres improve or take a step back next year. Sometimes teams will get unlucky trading for prospects. Sometimes, as was the case with the Jason Bay trade, teams will suffer from absolutely awful talent evaluation. Sometimes a player like Johan Santana will be able to forcibly restrict his team's trading partners to 2 or 3 teams, limiting the possible return. As long as stars get expensive and old, though, situations will arise where it makes sense to for some teams to ship their veteran producers out to teams who value their short-term performance more. I think we're in the middle of a dramatic market shift that's trended towards overvaluing prospects a little bit (but not hugely). You see this show up in deals like Cleveland's trade of Lee and Martinez, where not a single true blue-chipper came back for either. I do think that will correct itself in the near future. No matter what happens with the trade market, though, the deals will keep coming. |
| 65. By: Edman on 10-19-2010 09:43:46 I disagree. The first Lee trade to Seattle was modivated by the Phillies manlove for Halladay. The second Lee deal to Texas, based on what Seattle gave up to get Lee, compared to what they got from Texas, was a good deal. But, I wouldn't call it a blockbuster. Seattle got good talent in return, but it may take three years to see fruit from that tree. I like Happ, and it was wise of Houston to deal Gose to Toronto for Wallace, but that wasn't a blockbuster either. Happ is dealing with elbow issues. I classify both as good deals, but certainly not blockbusters. In three years, we'll know. But, blockbusters to me, include guys who have or are near "can't miss" talent. Kinda like Handley Ramirez to Florida for Lowell. |
| 66. By: Jerry on 10-19-2010 10:58:31 Edman, Slamacus, and Marco, The point isn't just to get better. Its to put together the core of a team that will be good TOGETHER. You guys are right about how losing Ichiro would represent a loss of production that would be tough to replace in 2011. If we did deal Ichiro for young players now, you aren't likely to get that production back immediately. But that is the fundamental concept behind rebuilding. You trade veteran players who are good right now for value down the road. You BUILD a good team this way. We would be trading good production right now (Ichiro) for younger, cheaper production in the future (young players and prospects). The point isn't to trade one dollar for two dollars. The point is to trade one dollar right now for two dollars in 2012-2015. That is when that production will be really valuable to the M's. Having Ichiro on the roster now isn't going to help the team contend in 2011, any more than his production helped them contend in 2010. The M's are rebuilding. Accepting this fact is the biggest step towards fixing this mess. The reason why this is a good idea is because the M's won't be contending until Ichiro is at the end of his current contract. As an older player, it just makes sense to cash in that token for value later on. People keep saying that Ichiro is more valuable to the M's than other teams. That may be true from a marketing standpoint (although that argument has been way overemphasized, in my opinion). But Ichiro's PRODUCTION is more valuable to a contending team than the M's. Just like Cliff Lee's production was more valuable to the Rangers than it was to the M's at the trade deadline. I just don't understand why people are having so much trouble grasping the notion of rebuilding. The M's are rebuilding. And finally, Edman, blockbuster trades happen all the time. The M's just completed one for Cliff Lee a few months ago. If that doesn't qualify as a blockbuster trade, then your definition of 'blockbuster' is waaaay too limited. |
| 67. By: Jerry on 10-19-2010 11:03:47 Edman, One more thing. Hanley Ramirez wasn't a can't miss talent at all. The Red Sox had questions about whether he would pan out. He didn't turn into a star until later. Hanley Ramirez wasn't any better than Smoak at the time of that trade. Can't miss talents don't exist. Even trading for a guy like Colby Rasmus has a bit of risk. Justin Smoak is about as 'can't miss' as prospects can get. Jesus Montero falls into that category too. Both players were available to the M's for Cliff Lee this year, who was a half-season rental. Two years of Ichiro, given his salary, production, and icon status, is worth quite a bit. Any deal involving Ichiro would qualify as a blockbuster. |
| 68. By: FatBat on 10-19-2010 11:47:20 Jerry not to disagree with you (because I agree with alot you have said) but, for me re-building is a term most commenly use in KC or Cin or TB? Re-build is for small market teams, for the most part, I think... Re-tool? might be more acceptable here. WE have a good payroll, why not just find the right young players to mash with the right veterans? Something Edman touched on, and I would agree. 80mil payroll, why not use it? To all, personaly I would just keep Ichiro out there and surround him with better tallent. Why not try and get Javier vasquez as a #2 starter? bring back Brian Fuentes (after we trade Aardsma) maybe Pena as a back up to Smoak and full time DH? Trade for a OF bat to compete with Saunders and there you go... a Re-tool! Smoak at first Ichiro in the OF you let Mangini run at 3b tell ackley comes up two months into the season and you have Pineda. Young tallent infused with tallented Veterans and we all don't have to watch who's who all year long. I think it does nothing to just flush all the tallent out the way Cleveland did. We are better than that, is all I'm saying. |
| 69. By: Edman on 10-19-2010 11:50:34 We can disagree about Hanley Ramirez if you want, but he was considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, when he was traded. In rebuilding, you have to also consider how to maintain the entertainment factor during that process. Ichiro represents fans in the seats. You think people are going to make travel plans to see Moore, Saunders, Guti, etc.? Not at all likely. And, I'm sure many would like to see Felix, but how do you plan in advance, not knowing when he'll pitch? How many do you think can afford to stay for a week, so they're sure to see him? Ichiro is the face of the franchise. Don't think so? Why is his face always seen on the MLB All-Star game commercials? Seen Felix there? You have to have revenue. Ichiro is more valuable to Seattle than his play on the field. He gives fans, mega-fan to novice, someone to come see. The idea that losing money at the gate is acceptable, as long as you're rebuilding, is a foamer's point of view. But, revenue streams matter. Ichiro is a superstar, on a team with only one other, who pitches every five days. Who cares if he'll be here when the team is ready to contend? His value is beyond that. You think the Yankees, good move or bad, are going to let Jeter play anywhere else? Would it make perfect baseball sense? Yes, but there are some things that have a greater value in regard to the image of the franchise. Some things don't have to make from a practicality point of view, and still be a good move for the team. |
| 70. By: FatBat on 10-19-2010 11:56:54 And by the way I thought Chris put out a very accurate article. Ichiro over paid? yes. Are people going to think trade? Yes. Is there a market for him out there with decent retern? Maybe. Will the M's trade him? Not likely. The whole point of the article was for us to think what are the M's options, without Z telling us directly, we have to guess. And I for one thought it greatly interesting to see what some other GM's might think of Ichiro's value. Thanks Chris. |
| 71. By: Marco on 10-19-2010 11:59:35 # 66 Jerry, your point is one of the best one I ever read on the matter and I fully agree with you. On the other side my point is that I strongly doubt the M's FO is able to rebuild the proper way to be contenders in a few years. Perhaps is a question of payroll or it's just because they just make bad deals - nobody can't know it exactly - but the club history in recent years speaks about having NO DESIGN AT ALL in their mind. Now do they want a young core of players to be competitive in a few years ? Beautiful, but then they should stop do deal for veterans at the end of their career and trade those ones they still have on the roster. In other words they should go one way or the other, otherwise it's non sense trade Ichiro away. I mean, the worst way to use those 16-million should be that one to get a couple of medium-level veterans because nobody wish to deal away in exchange for Ichiro some real top prospects. |
| 72. By: slamcactus on 10-19-2010 12:55:52 Edman and Jerry, you're both right about Hanley. He was considered a top prospect (ranked #30 the winter he was traded) because of his all-world tools, but he'd logged two straight disappointing seasons. Jerry: I wasn't saying Ichiro shouldn't be traded, just that he won't. But since you bring it up, he shouldn't. He isn't a bargain to a team looking to acquire him. He makes about what he's worth, with some risk built in that he'll underperform his contract. Guys like that don't get moved for huge returns. Ichiro's not the kind of rent-a-player who'll bring back a top prospect. He may have been prior to the 2007 season, but now he isn't. If the Ms ate a little more than half his remaining salary, they could trade Ichiro for some real talent in return. More likely, they'd be taking an arbitration-eligible guy back. The only real analog to what an Ichiro trade would look like today is something like the 2008 Manny Ramirez 3-way or the 2003 Alex Rodriguez trade. Even dealing with some of the highest-payroll teams in baseball (at the time), the deals involved either absorbing huge amounts of salary like Texas did or opening it up to a three-way trade involving other veterans. You don't get top prospects with 6 years of club control for guys who make what the market says they're worth. At least, I can't think of any example of teams giving up that kind of value for an expensive player in Ichiro's situation. You get less expensive veterans with a couple years of control left. People like Jason Bay circa 2008, or Alfonso Soriano circa 2004. Seeing as there are two years left on Ichiro's contract, I'm not sure I'd want to give him up for 3 or 4 years from an inferior player, some salary relief, and maybe a C+ prospect thrown in. That's the kind of deal you'd be looking at. |
| 73. By: slamcactus on 10-19-2010 13:04:11 Basically, the time to trade Ichiro, if ever, was 2007. He would've fetched a minimum of two "core" players. At this point, the only reason to trade him is if he asks to be shipped off to a contender while he's still capable of peak-type performance. Which, by the way, I have every expectation he still is. I'm tired of speculating on whether a year with a sub-.320 BA is a signal that he's declining. This is the fourth time we've seen a slight offensive valley, and he was on the wrong side of 30 all but one of those times (and 29 the other). Each time he's rebounded to put up performance equal to or better than his 2001 debut. |
| 74. By: Lailoken on 10-19-2010 20:15:02 Jerry, I understand your point on swapping current value for future value. Talented young players under club control at low salary are bigtime commodities. However, I have to agree more with FatBat. We're not just rebuilding, we're retooling. Takes a bit of time to clear the deadweight salary but we're getting there. Small market teams rebuild but when you're one of the haves once the deadweight clears you can buy yourself a team. Having cheap, effective, young talent only makes assembling the rest of the roster with the right veterans easier. Ichiro & Figgins had subpar years for them but still were on base at least 495 times (hits, walks, & HBP) yet they scored only a combined 136 runs. The epic failure by those that followed them in the lineup to drive them in was a hard scenario for GMZ to foresee. The failure was indeed epic. The team struggled throughout the lineup but since Ichiro is not ready for a big decline just yet he's hard to replace. We talk all the time on here about true #1 starters being rare birds but how many true leadoff hitters does this game have? 262 times he was on base & he scored 74 times. He also stole 42 bases advancing himself into scoring position or advancing himself to third or further into scoring position. I can recall many times he advanced an extra base when an opportunity arose--- going from first to third on singles by Figgins, etc. That he scored only 74 times is amazing & highly unlikely to be repeated. We're not as far from playoff contention as some may think with just base level productivity following Ichiro & Figgins. |
| 75. By: slamcactus on 10-20-2010 09:18:22 Eh, I think we're still pretty far from contention, Lailoken. With the marginal improvements we're likely to see this offseason I think we're looking at something like a 76-82 win team with potential to get to 85 if they get some huge breakouts (Gutierrez back to 4+ wins, Smoak at 3+, a DH who can hit the ball, etc...). |
| 76. By: lewis on 10-20-2010 10:11:29 Sorry, haven't been able to read all the last 25 or so comments, but I personally think a more interesting question than, "shoudl we trade Ichiro or not," is since we have a young team in the future and are to some degree (I think a lot) rebuilding is "can we afford to keep Figgins?" Some of the messages he sent this past year with his play, hustle, attitude or what ever you want to call it is not what you want, in a little league team let alone a mlb team. It seems maybe this new manager is one to address that in a way that it never happens again, but it seems detrimental to the kids and maybe there is value in Figgins in trade? Does anyone have any thoughts? Or maybe this isn't how/where I address that question? Thanks |
| 77. By: Lailoken on 10-20-2010 17:33:13 Hear ya slam, but if you can project 76-82 wins you've got a team who can surprise & be in wildcard contention at least. Throw in a midseason trade & a bring up a top prospect or two you can sneak into the playoffs. If some strong combination of Smoak, Guti, Pineda, Ackley, Saunders, & the young bullpen arms show well in 2011 I have no doubt we can add a missing piece or two with the money coming off the books (Bradley, Wilson, & the last 5.5 mill owed to Silva) the team can contend in 2012. That's far from a full scale rebuilding job. All this is not taking into account that Jack, with some maneuvering, could add a few pieces this offseason too. Ichiro's contract is not a black hole & so long as he remains productive through the length of the contract his next one, if he does keep playing at all or keep playing stateside would be as a 40+ yo & the price/length would go down accordingly. |
| 78. By: Jerry on 10-21-2010 11:11:07 Lailoken, I don't mean to be rude, since we're all rooting for the same team here. But you're kidding yourself if you think this club isn't rebuilding. We got a had start on the rebuild last year, with Jack continuing the job of building this club that he started a few years ago. But a lot of the progress made was erased during the moves to contend this year. This club has shifted gears, and is clearly in rebuild mode now. And that's a good thing! We just lost 100 games, with arguably the worst offense in the history of the game. There is just no way this club contends, and putting off the rebuild on attempt to win a few more games in 2011 will just prolong the agony. This club needs to rebuild, and pretty much everyone knows that that is what is happening now. 2011 is all about rebuilding. Maybe this is just a semantic argument, but to me, retooling is what veteran teams do when they have an off year. Boston is retooling right now, for example. The M's, on the other hand, are the token example of a rebuilding club. |
| 79. By: Jerry on 10-21-2010 12:12:24 Building on the last post, look at our roster right now. Our only legit cornerstone player in his prime is Felix. The rest of the roster is full of guys who fall into one of four categories: older vets (Bradley, Ichiro, Figgins, Aardsma); solid, cost-controlled contributors with limited upside (Vargas, Gutierrez, Kelley, and Fister); guys who are promising yet not established (Smoak, Saunders, Moore, Cortes); and advanced prospects (Ackley, Pineda, Beavan, and Lueke). That first group of guys aren't enough to make this team even average, and aren't going to be here when the latter two groups of players are ready to really contribute. The smart play is to punt 2011, and let those last two groups of players get some experience and hopefully become good ML players. Trading Ichiro and Aardsma now will help speed that process, bringing in guys who will be able to help when this club is a legit contender. Figgins and Bradley have little value now, so it makes sense to wait and hope they regain some value, perhaps by the trade deadline next year. Some of you guys have suggested an alternative plan, retooling a bit and signing vets to keep fans happy and win more games. But look at recent history. The M's have tried that pretty much every year since 2003. It hadn't worked out for us very well at all, and it won't likely work any better this offseason. That plan has gotten us a several seasons of 90+ losses and steadily declining attendance. Its time to try something new. To keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result is the definition of insanity. |
| 80. By: Lailoken on 10-21-2010 14:06:22 The fact remains that the team last year offensively performed well under their norms. Replacing a majority of Kotchman, Lopez, Bradley, Johnson, Griffey, Bard, Ja. Wilson, & Jo. Wilson's ABs with league average or better production is not a hopeless task. Easy to expect Figgins, Guti, Moore, Saundersm & even Ichiro to perform better in 2011. Your four category bit lumps an underperforming veteran with a HOF. On a case by case basis there are bounceback candidates, youth who can easily outperform their predecessors or their own previous seasons, & some expensive pieces like Aardsma whose role can be easily filled by cheaper talent. We do seem to have a fundamental impasse in our approach. Tanking is untenable IMO. Go young, trade off unnecessary commodities for the situation the club's in like Aardsma but selling off Ichiro so the club is in no position to win makes little sense. That smells of Argyros. Perhaps that's not the best ghost to invoke here but the principal approach applies quite a bit. The team has payroll. Ichiro is not a waste of payroll. Two midlevel veterans for Ichiro's 16 million would likely fail to match his production. They certainly won't replace the butts in the seats. The approach taken by GMZ in this is not a doing the same thing over & over expecting a different result insanity scenario. Going young does not guarantee losing, any thought to that end is a logical fallacy. In 2008 the prospects in the upper levels were nowhere to be found. Ichiro was younger. Maybe then a trade & wholesale rebuild made sense. A star RF wasn't in the wings then & any trade likely would've required that in return. Today, I doubt he nets that anyhow & no one is in the wings there yet today. This is certainly not Boston debating whether to keep Hanley Ramirez in lieu of Edgar Renteria. The 25-man roster doesn't have to be filled with a lack of productive players guaranteeing a losing season. There is money & plenty of talent around. I'm far from advocating we swap Saunders for a veteran LF. Bringing in talent that is likely to perform & shedding dead weight is a no-brainer approach. There's no need to expect wild card contention but there is equally no need to write such a possibility off. 2010 was a debacle but 2011 could hold as many pleasant surprises as 2010 held unexpected debacles. Of course the surprises would likely have to come from the youth on the club: Smoak, Moore, Saunders, Ackley, Pineda, Cortes, Lueke, Kelley, & others. As stated earlier we can reasonably expect some bounceback from Figgins & Ichiro likely plays better too. Fill a few blackholes with outside talent (not necessarily veterans) & a team that can compete from game to game emerges. At my work if you don't use your budget when it's available you risk it shrinking considerably, to the point that the job would be impossible to complete without the necessary resources. I hope GMZ does uses his budget reasonably. "Don't skimp on wine today for it implies doubt in heaven's abundance" a poet once wrote. If not in 2011 I'd wager the roster will be in shape to compete in 2012. Shoring up problem spots now makes the job easier the next offseason. I agree we're having a semantic argument. At least I hope it's productive. :) Sorry for the long post, I did cut in back some. |
| 81. By: Edman on 10-21-2010 15:07:59 Jerry, you're punting on first down, because you have no faith in the team you are putting on the field. If you think ANY GM in baseball is going to get away with telling his bosses to absorb massive revenue losses, because I give up five months early, I'm afraid you have a different impression of expectation than I do. It's great to sit here an pretend that revenue losses are okay. And, I've got even more news for you if you believe that throwing a bunch of relatively inexperienced kids is the way to rebuild. They need veterans to keep the pressure off of them while they develop. And, the fans need a reason to come to see the M's. You can accomplish both, and not make huge sacrifices. A larger handful of beans, doesn't make a better beanstalk. |
| 82. By: amac360 on 10-21-2010 16:56:44 I think this is very simple. If for some reason a team is going to give a stud young player like Kemp, Either, Montero, Bumgarner, etc.. You take it. Nobody is going to offer that because Ichiro is so much more valuable to us than he is to any other teams. It just won't happen. |
| 83. By: Mackie on 10-21-2010 17:25:19 To Lewis (#76), I'm with ya. This may not be the time or place to address your question, but I agree with your sentiments. I also agree wtih those who believe Ichiro is here for the rest of his career, whatever the reason. And since that's how it looks, I hope the organization will find some players who can drive him in! |
| 84. By: Beaned1 on 10-22-2010 11:37:37 Trade Ichiro to Baltimore. We can afford him, and we have a need for a leadoff type other than the oft-injured Roberts. Pie, Tillman, Mikolio for Ichiro and his big contract. We'll stick him in LF for a few years. |
| 85. By: camronj427 on 10-22-2010 11:37:42 This article to me is useless. He is not going to be traded because the guy has 10 and 5 rights. I dont believe he would accept a trade. I know I am not a M fan but it looks like he is there to stay at least until his contract runs up. |
| 86. By: FatBat on 10-22-2010 12:39:38 I'd like to look at Cleveland for a moment (or Pitsburgh)! The Indians traded away a pluthra of tallent in there rebuilding prograhm. Ten years later...they are still in that rebuilding program! Now look at the Reds, similar but they have gone after tallented Vets I.E. Arroyo, Rolen ect. now ask yourself why they made it to the playoffs? Outside of other forces I can put my finger on one player... his name is Joey Votto! Every year the M's try to contend and they miss this very important part, a number #3 hitter, and a number #4 as well. Then, I like to look at the M's and luts just Fantasize for a moment and ask what would have been the result last year when Felix was pitching and or Lee if we had Votto and Rolen? yup!!! You don't need to rebuild! Simply finding the right mix. What would have been the result of the M's 2001 season without Ichiro or Boone? I'm simply saying that a move of only two player can and would change this team, and not changing 10 or more every year is the solution. We have are core as it stands, but whats been missing has been missing for awhile. Offense. Period. A simple pick-up of a sold #2 starter and 2 bats that can drive in runs would completely change our outcome next year. not saying we would win, but to be competative could be relatively plausable. Finding that combo is a year in year out job. Just sayn' |
| 87. By: rocketdawg31 on 10-22-2010 12:40:30 Camronj427- I think that might well be unnecessarily dismissive. How are we to know what Ichiro has going on in his mind? It's not like Ichiro lets us in on the inner workings of his mind- ever. Heck, it's part of his mystique. For all we know, he's more receptive to the idea of leaving town than what he would've been a few years ago- and wouldn't block a trade to the likes of, say, Boston. (Yeah, I think Theo Epstein would look into having a guy like Ichiro around. The BoSox are already looking for ways to vault past the Yanks and Rays next year, I'm sure. And just for quick rosterbatory effect, I think Ryan Kalish would look mighty good in Mariner blue.) One thing I think we should all remember: Ichiro has seen a lot of losing in his career. The Orix Blue Wave in Japan were a terrible team virtually his entire tenure there. Nine of his first ten major league seasons have been without playoffs- and many of those seasons were losing ones. Has he gotten used to losing, and it just doesn't affect him much? Or is he starting to feel the need to make a move now if he's ever going to have a chance to be a major-league champion? I still stand by the idea (admittedly formulated when I didn't realize he had 10-5 rights, anyway) I expressed earlier in this post: let Ichiro have a big hand in deciding the rest of his string as a ballplayer. Even if he didn't have the 10-5's all locked up, I'd say the time for this talk between management and star player to happen is now. And as far as I'm concerned, Chris bringing this up is far, far from "worthless". If he wants to remain a Mariner for the rest of his career, great. Start talking contract extension/possible re-working. If he wants to go somewhere else and skip this inevitable roller-coaster that mainly young talent will bring with it, then quietly put out feelers to contending teams in either league. But as bleak as 2010 was, I really have a feeling of optimism starting to grow. The reasons being, I just don't believe Figgins has as horribly unlucky a year as what he did in 2010. I don't believe the offense will be anywhere near as futile, especially if positive adjustments come. I believe Smoak and Saunders (and maybe Moore) are going to arrive as major-league regulars. And I believe Aardsma can fetch an interesting piece back in trade, now that he's proven to be "an established closer". Minnesota, are you listening? And in the eyes of the baseball gods, aren't we due for some things to go right in the ballplayer-development department? Not that I need to tell this to the intelligent-posting bunch we have here at ProspectInsider: but this team is still suffering from a decade of mostly failed young talents around Felix Hernandez. Either we traded them away (Tillman, Mickolio, others) or lost patience (Clement, Morrow) or they've never, ever lived up to potential (Lopez, Betancourt, scads of others). You take all those names, and some others I'm very likely forgetting- and that was supposed to be the core of your contending team by now. My basic message is for all of us Mariner fans to keep the faith. This 2010 season looked an awful lot to me like the darkest before the dawn. And 2011 may well (even likely) be painful first rays of daylight showing- but you don't know. Clouds could break away faster than expected, and young talent can always take a major league stage by storm. But Edman is completely correct in saying (in effect) not to even dream about punting 2011 deliberately- you put out your best team possible and try to win as much as possible....always, always, always. Anything less than best efforts by the FO would be a cheating of the fan base, and a violation of the unwritten social contract between ownership and that fan-base. No matter what, Jack Zduriencik has a very interesting off-Season #3 lurking. I'm stocked for the winter, and ready to just do as I have for 25 years: watch the moves made, wait and hope. And get ready to find a Safeco seat to my liking when the first homestand comes in April. |
| 88. By: PositivePaul on 10-22-2010 14:29:05 Thanks for the better discussion, folks! Nice to get things back on track... It's interesting that we've hired Wedge as the manager considering Cleveland not to many years ago was considered a model franchise for rebuilding with youth. They had one of the best sabermetric systems in baseball. But look at their attendance records. Since their near-WS 2007 season, they have declined dramatically -- and their home attendance was last in the league in 2010. Indeed, this is one of the risks of pushing things too far and trading away your superstars. The M's are already plummeting in the attendance rankings. They don't need to join Oakland and Cleveland in that regard. So, bottom line, whether it's rebuilding with young talent or by a combination of youth and good, higher-$$$ free-agent/trade acquisitions they have to put a competitive team on the field. I've been to enough games at Safeco where it feels like I'm in a mausoleum. The ONLY way to make this happen is for the M's to win. |
| 89. By: Jerry on 10-22-2010 15:07:58 Couple of notes on the last few posts: Lailoken: First, your scenario for this team to possibly be a surprise contender or at least good is based on the expectation that all the young players play well, and all the vets have good years. I just don't think that's realistic. Young players often struggle in their first year, and some fill fail completely. And some of those vets are going to either fail again or get shipped out next year. I agree that last year everything went wrong. But your projection is based on the assumption that everything will go right. Thats not realistic. Second, I am not suggesting that the M's cut salary dramatically. I would love to see them trade Ichiro, Aardsma, and perhaps Gutierrez and bring back good players, then reinvest that money in players who are younger and more likely to be here in 2012-2014. I would love to see more money go towards the draft and int'l amateur market, plus some low-cost, high upside guys. You spend the money, just focusing on the future, and filling in holes with shorter-term contracts with some upside. Fatbat, I agree that we do have a core of good players. The point you are missing is that they are young. Ichiro and Felix are our only 'core' guys who aren't kids. Smoak, Ackley, Moore, Saunders, and Pineda are the others. That is the whole point of my last post: the M's have to wait for the core of the team to mature a bit. Second, you yourself point out that the M's needs include a #3 and #4 hitter, and a #2 starter. That just illustrates the depth of the issue. I'm sorry, but it just isn't easy to go pick up those types of players. How do you do that? They aren't there in free agency (at least not for reasonable prices). The way you do that is developing them through the system, and acquiring talent though trades. Thats exactly what I am recommending they do. A #2 starter and a guy like Joey Votto aren't available in free agency, and will cost you more than Aardsma via trade. The best way to get guys like that is to fill the system with talented prospects, and wait for some of them to develop. Edman, This team sucks. Whether Ichiro is on the team or not, this club is going to be bad next year. They'll be better than 2010, but Ichiro isn't a necessary requisite for that improvement. Revenue loss is a certainty, whether Ichiro is here or not. If your concern is attendance, than rebuilding is the right way forward because it will speed up the track to contending again. Winning brings fans. Its really that simple. The M's have been in free fall since 2003, with only two blips of >.500 ball during that span. Look at the attendance. Its gone down steadily. If they want to stop that freefall, they MUST stop that freefall. Bringing in mediocre vets to surround a mediocre core is exactly what they SHOULDN'T do. No matter what happens, the M's are going to be bad next year, and they will lose more revenue due to attendance. Why not just go all in and fix the problem for the long term? Treading water doesn't work. If you want proof of that, look at the M's recent history, especially under Bill Bavasi. I am not advocating running out the Tacoma roster next year. But the M's are going to be young. That is an absolute certainty. Smoak, Ackley, Pineda, Moore, Saunders, and Cortes are likely to see a ton of playing time this year. And they should. They need and deserve to play. The M's need to see who can help this club going forward. Adding to that young core, with some veterans around to keep pressure off them, as you suggested, is the way forward. But you don't need to have those veterans signed to 15+ mil/year multiyear contracts. Finally, why does everyone think that fans will suddenly stop showing up to games because Ichiro is gone? Sure, he's a popular player, and losing him would hurt attendance a bit. But its not like Safeco will suddenly turn into Tampa Bay if Ichiro is traded. I think you are dramatically overestimating fans' affinity for Ichiro. Over the years, we've lost Randy Johnson, Griffey, A-Rod, and Edgar. We've also lost fan favorites like Mike Cameron and Raul Ibanez. And fans kept coming to games. That will continue. Fans have short memories. By this time next year, Felix and Justin Smoak could be the faces of the franchise. Ackley could be that guy in a few years. The M's are terrible right now. Why not speed up the transition from the Ichiro era to the Smoak/Ackley era? The M's are at rock bottom right now. This is not the time for band-aid remedies. Finally....to Rocketdawg: "But Edman is completely correct in saying (in effect) not to even dream about punting 2011 deliberately- you put out your best team possible and try to win as much as possible....always, always, always. Anything less than best efforts by the FO would be a cheating of the fan base, and a violation of the unwritten social contract between ownership and that fan-base." I'm sorry, but thats just total BS. Trying to win every day is what a manager should do. Not a GM. A GMs job is to build a club that will be a consistent contender for a long time, and to win the world series. Part of that job is to be able to objectively assess the talent level of the team. If they aren't contenders, the team should focus on rebuilding towards that. The difference between 60 and 70 wins doesn't mean shit. The difference between 70 and 80 wins also doesn't mean shit. The difference between last and third place doesn't mean shit. Being stuck in mediocrity is the worst case scenario. Thats the Blue Jays. Who wants that??? You either gear up for a shot at the playoffs, or you stockpile talent. Inability to accurately gauge how good a club is leads to moves like the Bedard trade. That was why Bavasi was such a failure here: he tried to build the club through costly band-aid additions in free agency, and traded valuable young talent for veterans in an ill-conceived attempt to contend when the club just wasn't that good. And it was an amazing debacle. Right now, the M's have to objectively look at their roster, and come to the correct conclusion: this team is bad. They need to rebuild. It will take longer than one year to do that. So all decisions need to be on building the next winning club in 2012-2015. For me, the unwritten social contract is to build a good franchise. The team has already broken that contract, by sucking for so long. Instead of repeating the same mistakes, I'm hoping that Jack has the balls to make bold moves to continue the rebuild that is already underway. And I think he does. Although he hasn't explicitly said it (and he won't in public), I think this team has already punted 2011. Its the smart thing to do. The team will likely improve a bit, but the important decisions aren't focused on winning as much as possible in 2011. And that's the way it should be! He may not be able to move Ichiro (and his market value may not make it worth it, as many of you speculate). But not being open to the idea is just bad decision making. I think this is an exciting time to watch the club, because we have lots of interesting young players and a GM who gets it. I just hope that he has the sack to disappoint fans who can't handle a rebuilding year. |
| 90. By: Jerry on 10-22-2010 15:22:41 Paul, I hear what your saying. But in response to your Oakland and Cleveland analogies for the M's, I would suggest we focus on Texas. Texas was afraid to fully rebuild for years, and kept trying to win despite a weak farm system and a lack of pitching. They tried to rectify that through free agency, and it was a colossal failure. Then, Jon Daniels committed to a legit rebuild a few years ago, and, through trades and good drafts, have built one of the best farm systems in baseball. They supplemented that by making shrewd moves for young, cost-controlled players like Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. That talent not only made them contenders, but gave them the talent necessary to make a trade for Cliff Lee to gear up for a playoff run. That whole process started with a commitment to build through the draft, and a trade that moved their best player and the face of the franchise (Mark Teixeira) for a bunch of prospects. That move obviously would have not been popular with casual fans who buy tickets to games. But the team got better quickly due to a willingness to rebuild. And now they are in the world series. I bet they aren't that worried about short-term losses of attendance now. |
| 91. By: Edman on 10-22-2010 16:20:48 Well hey Jerry, it's just that simple. By God, all you've got to do is stockpile talent. That's the answer in whole. You pick ONE successful franchise, in Texas, and ignore the rest. Doesn't Pittsburgh contantly rotate expensive players out of their system and trade for more beans? Haven't they been in a position to draft high nearly every year? Kansas City much different? Let's talk about Cleveland. They did the same thing, except they didn't get the same results. You make it sound like the answer is simple. It has nothing to do with trading veterans. That's a red herring. It has to do with making good baseball decisions. That is what makes for great teams. Along with keeping a core of solid veterans. The trade Mark Teixeira was a great one for Texas, no doubt. However, he was not traded before the season, he was traded at the deadline. He was heading into his free-agent year after the 2008 season and Texas knew they would have to compete with teams like New York, Boston, etc. to retain him. So, it was down to trading him, or losing him to Free Agency soon. If we could get a haul like that for Ichiro, fine. But, you KNOW that isn't gonna happen. Mark is a run producer on a completely different level than Ichiro. Also, let's put this more in perspective. Let's say it had been Nolan Ryan that we're talking about. He was the face of the Rangers, similar to Ichiro. If you think Mark Teixeira was that big an icon in Texas, you're fooling yourself. Put it on it's proper level. They got lucky with Josh Hamiliton. It was a decent risk, but it was a gamble. There's an amount of luck that's involved. To deny that, is silly. And, your view of a GM's responsibility is completely idealistic. Sure, that's what we'd all like to believe. But, he has far more to consider. He does have to worry that his moves may alienate fans. What bothers me about your position, is that you are black and white. No gray. You can't compete, be entertaining, and still build a winner. I don't buy that you have to throw out the baby with the bath water. Call yourself a realist if you want, but I see it as narrow-minded. There are many ways to accomplish the same goal. |
| 92. By: Edman on 10-22-2010 16:54:06 On a further note, Jerry, what makes you think the M's haven't looked at the team and concluded that they're bad. How could they not come to your "correct conclusion"? They aren't blind. The team has already punted? Really, Jerry? Just how to you justify that statement? The only move they've made it to hire a manager. How is that punting? The team should be open to trading anyone, even Felix. That doesn't mean it's going to happen. You'd be all for moving Felix in the right deal? We could get even more major league wannabes. I look forward to watching some of the kids grow. But, I can tell you this, come July, if it's a repeat of this season, where we "hope" that some young bats show needed improvement, I won't be watching games. I'll find other things to do. I do need to be entertained. |
| 93. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 10-22-2010 18:34:20 This is stupid. How often do first ballot hall of fame players, playing for their only franchise, and with 10 and 5 rights get traded? I can't think of any. The Orioles didn't trade Ripken. The Padres didn't trade Gwynn. The Yankees will never trade Jeter. And the only way Ichiro would ever not be a Mariner is if that was his desire. Only the uneducated would even contemplate trading a franchise icon as a real possibility. And for all of you who are saying Ichiro has hit some kind of decline phase; http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/10/22/1767858/happy-37th-birthday-ichiro-suzuki ...How ya like them apples. |
| 94. By: shortstop9 on 10-22-2010 20:26:58 There are some interesting packages that would really help us: Balt.- Markakis & Weiters Philly -Dominic Brown & ? L.A -Eithier & Dee Brown Bos. -Kalish & Lowrie Yankees - Montero & P etc.. Fill a couple huge spots with some good young talent-we have another guy who can bat leadoff. |
| 95. By: Mackie on 10-22-2010 20:47:46 Paul wrote: "So, bottom line, whether it's rebuilding with young talent or by a combination of youth and good, higher-$$$ free-agent/trade acquisitions they have to put a competitive team on the field." Agreed. At the same time they mainly commit to young players, I hope the Mariners will find ways to supplement the lineup with some better hitters. I don't know what is realistic when it comes to free agent signings this winter, so how about trading for someone who is fairly young and who could represent an improvement at position where no kids would be blocked? How about Jed Lowrie for SS? Would he be worth it, and if so, what would it take to get him away from Boston? It doesn't seem like he would block anyone for maybe a couple of years. I don't want to watch The Wilsons playing SS for the Mariners any more. Do you? 8-) Certainly there must be someone the Mariners can find to be an effective DH. That might be a good way to spend free agent money, if there is any. Who is out there that would be worth signing, or maybe trading for (and might be obtainable in trade?) Are there any catchers available who might not necessarily replace Adam Moore, but who could share time with him? Besides helping to take some pressure off the youngsters in the lineup, adding a few decent bats would make the ballclub more competitive. So back to the subject of Ichiro, if he is going to be around for the foreseeable future, a big part of making the team competitive would seem to be finding bats to drive him in. And I suppose drive in Figgins too, if he must still be here! 8-) |
| 96. By: Edman on 10-22-2010 20:49:37 I'm sorry I ever got involved in this discussion. It's worthless and everyone knows Ichiro isn't getting traded. There are now 95 posts related to something that won't ever happen. Well, at least it's not another Lueke discussion. |
| 97. By: rocketdawg31 on 10-22-2010 21:02:00 Only the uneducated would even contemplate trading a franchise icon as a real possibility. I'm educated, mauricewilliams3. And I could see it as a real possibility. Just not all that likely. Griffey was a franchise icon. He was traded. Nolan Ryan spent half his career as a legend and icon, wasn't he traded? Icon does not = untradeable. |
| 98. By: Lailoken on 10-22-2010 23:42:46 Lailoken: First, your scenario for this team to possibly be a surprise contender or at least good is based on the expectation that all the young players play well, and all the vets have good years. I just don't think that's realistic. Young players often struggle in their first year, and some fill fail completely. And some of those vets are going to either fail again or get shipped out next year. I agree that last year everything went wrong. But your projection is based on the assumption that everything will go right. Thats not realistic. Second, I am not suggesting that the M's cut salary dramatically. I would love to see them trade Ichiro, Aardsma, and perhaps Gutierrez and bring back good players, then reinvest that money in players who are younger and more likely to be here in 2012-2014. I would love to see more money go towards the draft and int'l amateur market, plus some low-cost, high upside guys. You spend the money, just focusing on the future, and filling in holes with shorter-term contracts with some upside. Nowhere did I write that I expected all to perform well. (Shrugs) Don't know how you came to that conclusion. The idea was to position the team with better performance. Fact is, as you wrote, just about everything went wrong & the opportunity for a drastic swing in performance is very present. Any projection system will show a team primed for a much better record when all is said & done. I'm down with some upside shorter-term contracts but losing the spectacular outfield defense would plunge this team into definite losing. Trading Guti now would be selling low IMO. Also, his contract is a crazy bargain even with the subpar offense & drop in UZR last season. Fangraphs had his value at nearly 7 million more than he was actually paid. Shouldn't the plan be to get better somewhat soon? All this talk of trading away a bunch of proven talent that outperforms their salary without netting equivalent returns makes my head spin. |
| 99. By: Edman on 10-23-2010 00:29:56 Actually, rocketdawg, Nolan Ryan was traded by the Mets to the Angels in 1971. He was far from the team's icon. That honor went to one Tom Seaver. Most of his career was in California, and he signed with the Astros as a Free Agent, I do believe. Griffey was traded because he was a pending free agent, and it was a get something or nothing proposal. Ichiro is not a pending Free Agent, so you can take that aspect away. It's silly to even discuss what will never happen. |
| 100. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 10-23-2010 02:54:28 Thankyou Edman. What is clear in the fact that this sophmoric discussion still pops up every offseason is that there is a small subsection of loud Mariner fans that are decidedly xenophobic. I for one am sick of it. In the end Ichiro will be the greatest Mariner surpassing Griffey and Edgar. When this contract ends he is highly likely to sign a below market deal to end his career as a Mariner playing on a contender. Deal with it Ichiro haters. |
| 101. By: Blowgun7 on 10-23-2010 04:38:57 #94 You wouldn't come close to getting the players you put in those packages. |
| 102. By: rjfrik on 10-23-2010 11:16:47 Time for a new thread. Maybe one about the guys down in AFL. Maybe one about the talent that will be at the number 2 pick. I don't know. But this thread feels burnt out. |
| 103. By: micahjr on 10-23-2010 11:47:47 I'm with rjfrik, new thread time. I suspect that this kind of post is partly put up to generate site traffic during down-times. It appears to have worked. Congrats on the ad revenue Prospect Insider! I still think that discussions like this are more appropriate with different timing. Before the world series has ended is too early. This post in November or December makes a lot more sense in the lead-up to winter meetings. Timeliness is an important part of writing these kind of pieces. I would have let this apple stay on the tree a little longer. The subject still irritates me when it comes up every year, but it irritates me more when it comes up too early. |
| 104. By: FatBat on 10-23-2010 12:40:35 Subject change idea #1. I say we lead a charge for a uniform change!!! Bring back the Pitchfork permanetly! Or at least a color change. man i can't stand looking at the Mariners grey anymore! If not the pitchfork at least do the jersey's top's in black, dark blue or...Teal? come on! Grey is so drab, tired...Lame? The M's uniforms seam to go in cycles, I think this one ran its corse. I love watching old M's games just to see the old (better!) uniforms. I can't Imagine any free agents thinking "Man I could be wearing Mariner's grey next year! That uniform just Pops!" Just an idea, anyone for streaking thru. the quad? |
| 105. By: rjfrik on 10-23-2010 15:23:15 Like clockwork huh? I love it. not one but two knew threads literally an hour after I posted it's time for a new one. I love this site |
| 106. By: TomHampshire on 10-28-2010 19:02:43 Somebody made the comment that Ichiro's Orix teams In Japan were terrible. This is false. Actually the teams were pretty good in large part thanks to Ichiro. His first full season was in 1994 when he broke a Japanese record of hits in a season. Japan has two leagues with 6 teams each. The Orix Blue Wave's standings by year: Prior to Ichiro (1991-1993): 3/6, 3/6, 3/6 Ichiro (1994-2000): 2/6, 1/6, 1/6, 2/6, 3/6, 3/6, 4/6 Post-Ichiro (2001-2004): 4/6, 6/6, 6/6, 6/6 Through 1994 to 1996 Ichiro won MVP honors 3 year in a row, and his team was runner up and winner of two pennants. In 1996 the Orix Blue Wave won the Japan Series (their version of the World Series) over the powerhouse Tokyo Giants (their version of the New York Yankees) and Ichiro was voted as one of the Valuable Players. Going into the Japan Series, Orix were by far the underdogs against the Tokyo Giants, but Ichiro hit a go ahead homerun in the 10th inning of the opener. No need to mention the World Baseball Classic where an Ichiro-led Japan repeated as two time World Champions. This guy is a winner. So please try to get some good players on the team instead of surrounding him by utter dross, already. Then we wouldn't have to endure people saying garbage about trying to trade him away. |
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