| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-27-2009 |
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Not that it matters a whole lot, but there is a lot of chatter going on in the city of Seattle about who is going to be the team's closer in 2009. The trade of J.J. Putz has opened up a role at the end of the game for the M's bullpen crew, and four or five arms will vie for the role this March in Spring Training.Those arms likely include five right-handers in Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe, David Aardsma, Tyler Walker and Miguel Batista.
Right-hander Aaron Heilman and southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith are heading to spring camp as candidates for the starting rotation, as is righty Brandon Morrow. Heilman and Rowland-Smith could end up in the bullpen should the M's fail to deal Jarrod Washburn between now and sometime before the season is over.
If Washburn is here, he's going to start games. The same can't be said for Batista, who actually likes the relief role, and has experience as a 9th-inning option.
Heilman's stuff is best suited for relief work, but it's his arm slot that has scouts concerned that he's nothing more than a No. 5 starter with 90-100 pitches at his disposal. His pure stuff is above average, but his command is not, leaving the right-hander without the proper weapons to go deep into games.
Rowland-Smith is best used in multi-inning outings, too, preferably as a long man out of the pen or as a back-end starting pitcher. His arsenal certainly doesn't scream closer to anyone, but he throws strikes with average or better stuff and there's value in that no matter when they come during a game.
For now, however, we'll stick to the five names that we're sure are relievers come the regular season.
Roy Corcoran
A ground ball pitcher with a 90-92 mph fastball, mid-80s slider, and no third offering, Corcoran is not ideal for the closer's role. He lacks an out pitch and brings subpar control to the table, making the 28-yar-old a better option for the middle innings behind the starter.
His ground ball ratios rank among the tops in baseball - No. 1 for relievers - and he can cover multiple innings in each outing, serving as a bit of a rubber arm for new skipper Don Wakamatsu.
David Aardsma
The 27-year-old Aardsma may have the best pure stuff of any reliever in the M's organization, bringing a live 93-97 mph fastball to the mound to go with a mid-80s curve ball. He also throws a high-80s slider on occasion, but he's best served using his fastball-curve combo.
His command is spotty and his overall control is very inconsistent - at times, he pounds the strike zone and gets outs regularly, while other times he struggles with high base runner totals and home runs.
The right-hander gets good glove side run on his heater that also has some sink to it. But the late life is the critical aspect of his arsenal. His curve ball is a little flat but has decent, late breaking action. When 100 percent healthy, Aardsma has mid-tier setup stuff or better.
Miguel Batista
Batista's velocity and movement suggest he should be more effective than he is - in any role - but his command is poor and the break on his slider is often soft. His two-seamer is a good pitch when located and in relief the 37-year-old can dial it up to the 93-95 mph range.
Batista's well below-average control and poor fastball command explain the 248 bases on balls he;s issued the past three seasons, and the 19 long balls yielded this past season.
Considering that he lacks an out pitch, even when he's at his best, Batista serves the M's best in a long relief role, covering multiple innings per appearance, and as a spot starter, regardless of his prior experience as a closer.
Tyler Walker
Walker has experience closing, too, saving 23 of 28 for the Giants in 2005 and 10 of 12 for Tampa Bay a year later. He struggled with the home run ball a year ago - seven in 51 innings - and his command remains average at best.
But his plus fastball - often clocked in the 93-94 mph range, plus changeup and average curve ball are enough weapons to get outs in the late innings in either league.
Command is the key for Walker, who can sink his fastball and run it away from left-handed hitters, but gets hit hard when he leaves it up in the zone.
Mark Lowe
Lowe is the one candidate that I didn't have to ask too much about, as I've seen him extensively over the past four years. His velocity is almost all the way back, as the Texas-Arlington product sat 93-96 last season with his fastball. His slider showed flashes of returning to its put-away status of 2006, but more consistency is needed.
The one red flag I saw from Lowe in 2008 was centered on his mechanics. His four-seamer, that typically produced natural sink and run prior to his elbow surgery, was often flat and without the good plane generated in the past.
His slider lacked consistent downward break as well, and he lost some confidence in his change, which he threw just 36 times last season. But his fastball is still a plus pitch, showing good life and missing bats when located well.
He hasn't been hurt as much as one would generally expect when staying up in the zone, and if he gets back to staying taller and on top of his pitches better in 2009, the decent home run rates (six in 63 innings in '08) should get even better.
If Lowe is even 95 percent of what he was pre-surgery, he's the best candidate to close games for the Mariners this upcoming season, despite below-average command. The chances that he outperforms Aardsma and Walker aren't great, however, but Lowe is likely to get numerous chances to prove he's the right arm for the job.
Unsigned first-round pick Josh Fields would be another candidate if he signed in time to start spring training with the rest of the pitchers and catchers, but he'd certainly be on the outside looking in having not pitched in nine months.
closer-candidates
Comments
The following 28 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: bakomariner on 01-27-2009 12:41:56 Watching Lowe before his injury, I thought he'd be the closer of the future...he was dominant...so I hope he gets the first crack at it... The other possible candidates all have some sort of flaw...really, Lowe's only flaw is because of his injury, so if he can get back to his pre-injury form, he should be the guy... And if Jim Street keeps pushing Morrow to be the closer(every article he writes about Mariner pitching has a statement like, "Morrow may be better suited for the closing role than the rotation"), I'm going to go insane... |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 12:50:01 I'm with you, but I don't see that as Street pushing Morrow for the closer role. He's just making a general statement. It's not true, not for 2009 or 2010 at least, but Street should have stayed retired, yeah. |
| 3. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-27-2009 13:43:12 For the sake of staying civil, I won't mention what I think of Street's Q & A and general reporting. Jason, although he needs better command more than anything...do you think Lowe could get back the 1-2 mph he lost on his fastball, as well as the tilt he had on the four-seamer- now that he's had a full year away from rehab, could he enter 2009 conceivably stronger? Unless I'm really wrong on this, I think Scott Radinsky (90's-era WhiteSox power lefty reliever) had an injury similar to Lowe's, came back and was much less effective the first year..then proceeded to go back to ABOUT where he had been the next. I'll look into that to confirm, but I seem to remember it can happen... |
| 4. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-27-2009 13:53:28 And sorry for the back-to-back posts, but I forgot to mention that I have a dollar that says Heilman becomes the closer (such as it may be) out of training camp. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 13:54:39 I think Lowe's velo could jump a bit, but it really doesn't need to. Radinsky's elbow surgery was TJ. |
| 6. By: DanDuke on 01-27-2009 14:11:30 What about Shawn Kelley? I've heard he has a great slider and that the front office thinks very highly of him. He'll be in camp. Would the team consider giving him a spot on the 25 man? |
| 7. By: bakomariner on 01-27-2009 14:17:16 Re: Kelley- He's not on the 40-man roster, so they'd have to move someone off to use Kelley... Re: Heilman- I think he'll be traded... |
| 8. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-27-2009 14:19:26 Forgive me, Jason...I usually can figure out initials and acronyms, but what does "TJ" mean? |
| 9. By: dewey on 01-27-2009 14:27:52 Command will decide if Lowe can close and right now he cant.Heilmans flat slider will hit the hit it here sign a few times he has alot of troubles with LHH.My money says Batista closes for one reason Vetran presence uggh i hat that thought but thats one mans opinion.Street is the puppet for the front office why pay any attention to him? |
| 10. By: safecochatter on 01-27-2009 14:30:22 8 - tommy john 7 - allways thought heilman was accquired to retrade. cardinals might be a good fit. they got outfielders to trade and are looking for pitching. |
| 11. By: FatBat on 01-27-2009 14:44:07 My money's on Lowe as well. Man when we brought him up...what did he go? 16, 17 ennings? with out giving up a run. wow, he has great stuff to be a closer (if he gets his control back) I as well thought we got Heilman only to be flipped down the road, before spring training but after watching fanfest I'm not sure what they are thinking. And that reminds me, Fanfest. Is it just me or did it suck this year. Did not that many people attend? That could be bad sign for ticket sales, and next years budget. It will be interesting to see where Rowland-smith lands this year. I think he deserves the starting roll over Heilman but he is one hell of a spot started long relief guy. Better than Batista anyway. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 15:49:06 Not sure if my money is on Lowe, but that's who my brain wants. Heilman has not shot to be the closer out of the gate if he spends the spring trying to win a job in the rotation. |
| 13. By: Slurve on 01-27-2009 18:10:35 Lowe does have crazy stuff and that's who I'm leaning to right now... Walker looks like the dark horse in the bunch. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 18:48:29 I think Walker is the favorite, to be honest. |
| 15. By: littlelinny6 on 01-27-2009 19:26:36 I cannot believe Batista would be considered for closers role. I have a better chance of hitting a 95 mph fastball than he does finding the strike zone. Not to mention when guys get on base he becomes even more deliberate. I cannot take any more 30 minute half innings. In my opinion Walker and Lowe are the options, especially if Heilman is hell bent on starting which makes no sense because he will not be in that rotation. I think the root of the inundated bullpen problem we have is Washburn, Batista, and Silva--guys with bloated contracts that we must play and would like to put everyone of these guys as the long reliever/wash up duty man. I know it is alot of money but since there is no market for Washburn, do you think the M's could release him to secure a spot for RRS? Anyways, I blathered on. Also, this is the wrong thread but I liked the first premium notebook Jason. |
| 16. By: FatBat on 01-27-2009 19:27:27 Walker...You hear something? Or because he has closed before? |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 19:36:15 I hear Wak WANTS Lowe or Aardsma to win it, but that Walker is the early favorite. If the season started today, sorta thing. |
| 18. By: dewey on 01-27-2009 20:55:34 Walker will be lucky to be a middlr guy he has went backwards and his stuff has backed up alot! |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 21:53:39 Agreed on Walker, but Aardsma isn't reliable - injuries, command - and Lowe isn't a proven commodity in the least. So as of today, I can see why Walker would be the early fave. |
| 20. By: rightwingrick on 01-27-2009 21:54:08 I have to admire the new GM for a couple of schrewd moves in picking up Walker and Aardsma. Walker has closing experience and is about all the way back from injury, and Aardsma has a very big upside and closing stuff. Frankly, I think the talk about signing Fields is all that...talk. With 5 picks high in the draft, the M's could probably wait and get Fields with the 5th one of those picks, if they even wanted him. I think Z is much more interested in the draft pick than in Fields. We'll see. I'd go with Batista as closer if he wasn't such a head case. His stuff is not the problem, but he never uses it correctly. He's so cerebral, he's always out there trying to outsmart the hitter when all he has to do is overpower him. Happens time after time. Until he just rears back and lets it loose and quits thinking about it, he will be mediocre. And there's little to say he will change. Lowe is not quite ready, and neither is Aaardsma, but both are close. My guess is that Walker, with stuff and experience and all the way back from injury, has the inside track. Heilman is my guess for #5 (Hernandez, Bedard, Morrow, RR Smith, Heilman)...but maybe Silva. Washburn will likely be traded during spring training if he shows anything at all, with the M's taking a lower-level prospect with upside, and paying a big part of Washburn's salary. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-27-2009 22:08:52 Re: Fields Seattle can't simply redraft him. They'd have to get the player's permission to do so. Re: The rotation Is it just me or would it absolutely piss everyone off if Washburn starts the year in the rotation if it means Rowland-smith starts in the pen? There's just no reason for it. |
| 22. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-27-2009 23:54:47 Not just you. Count me among those pissed off if Washrag winds up taking Rowland-Smith's spot in the rotation. Rowland-Smith didn't show me any real signs he COULDN'T handle a starter's slot last year. |
| 23. By: safecochatter on 01-28-2009 03:25:15 researching #2 on your draft list. alex white from u of nc. i ran across an article by chapelhillnews.com they seem really jacked about dustin ackley. and mention alex white in the second paragraph. almost as an after thought. anyway here it is.. UNC's Dustin Ackley has been selected as Recruitingcloser.com's Preseason Player of the Year. He is one of the purest hitters in college baseball, hitting .417 (116-278) last season with a UNC-record 82 runs scored, seven home runs, 51 RBI and 19 stolen bases. Earning All-America honors for two straight years, the first baseman-outfielder heads into this season rated first on most draft boards. "rated first on most boards" does get ones attention. you have him listed as a cf. can he stay there or will he out grow cf? |
| 24. By: rightwingrick on 01-28-2009 10:27:16 I don't know what else RR Smith could do to prove he deserves a rotation spot than what he did last year. Truly, behind Hernandez, he was the next best pitcher we threw out there and probably the BEST competitor. The guy just doesn't give in, he stays focused, he goes after hitters. True, his stuff is #4 and will stay #4...but Jamie Moyer's stuff is AAA, and look where attitude, preparation, tenacity, and intelligence got him (not to mention his similar bulldog attitude). If we had a team of RR Smiths with the same talent as we have now, we would never finish in the basement...they just wouldn't accept it, wouldn't allow it. Every ounce of competitiveness would be left on the field. We are a soft team that needs his harder edge. We need RR Smith starting, and it has as much to do with his attitude as his pitching record. So yes, Jason, I think anyone paying attention would be pissed if he doesn't get a fair shot at starting. Why would you not start your second-best pitcher...the one most likely to get you consistent wins after Hernandez, the one you are most confident in their performance every time out. Steady, consistent, good performance. What a concept! |
| 25. By: John_S on 01-28-2009 11:38:56 Baker's blog says we may be trading Heilman to the Cubs for IF Ronny Cedeno + prospect. http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/index.html#036814 |
| 26. By: huhwhat on 01-28-2009 11:56:09 Jason, are you hearing anything about Heilman for Olson and Cedeno being the actual deal as reported on ESPN? |
| 27. By: StandinPat on 01-28-2009 12:22:54 Jason, I too would rather see RRS over Wash in the rotation, but Im curious to get your opinion on the two from strictly a talent stand point. The SABR folks would tell you that Washburn is slightly better than RRS, citing BB%, K%, etc, although they'd still take RRS and the nearly $10mil in savings. From what I saw last year, I really felt like over his time as a starter Ryan outdid anything Washburn had done over a similar span in his time as a Mariner, but it was a pretty small sample size and some regression could be in order. So basically, if the salries/years of service were identical who do you think is more likely to be the better pitcher in 09? |
| 28. By: SABR Matt on 01-29-2009 15:14:10 Speaking as a representative for my people - the great nation of SABR - I don't think you're necessarily right in saying the stat oriented folks would say Washburn was better than RRS. The SABR inclined would argue that RRS' minor league skill metrics paint a picture of a guy who is likely to improve on his results form last season, especially if what we heard about his FB velo odrop being caused by him never taking an off-season and getting tired is true. Now that he's allowing himself some time off, I would project improvement in K rrate and K/BB...and even setting that aside, I would be inclined to believe that RRS will out BABIP Washburn. They're both flyball pitchers, but RRS has a much better second pitch and will probably continue to post a higher SwS% and lower LD% and HR/Fly than Washburn if given the chance to start. The betting stat-man takes RRS. |
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