| By Adam H. Wong |  | By 06-20-2012 |
Nick Franklin is on his way to Seattle. He isn't on his way to Seattle right at this very moment, of course, but it's happening soon. Before he travels through the threshold of Safeco Field's gates as a member of the Mariners' 25-man roster, he has to pass through Tacoma. Seattle's second pick in the first round of the 2009 Amateur Draft is knocking on the door of the major leagues.
That begs the question -- what happens to Brendan Ryan?
2013 will be the last year that Ryan is eligible for salary arbitration. When he avoided arbitration with the Mariners in late 2010, he signed to the tune of $2.75 million over two years. Unless baseball front offices decide to value defensive metrics overnight, Ryan doesn't stand to make much more than that this off-season. That's quite a steal when you look at other shortstops in the league and what they're making. Jamey Carroll is making nearly double what Ryan is, and Clint Barmes is owed more than triple Ryan's salary this year, and neither of them contribute to the defense of their teams as much as Ryan does.
The Mariners would be doing themselves a favor by signing Ryan to at least another two-year deal. Brendan Ryan is the best defensive shortstop in baseball and there is no question about it. One statistic Fangraphs uses to rate defense is Ultimate Zone Rating, and we can see just how great a defender Ryan has been by using it.
UZR is a counting stat, and if we look at UZR for shortstops since 2007, Ryan is second in all active players, behind J. J. Hardy and ahead of Omar Vizquel. Here's the catch: Ryan has nearly a third less playing time than Hardy, and the gap between Ryan's and Vizquel's UZR is huge. UZR calculates the number of plays and opportunities a fielder has, and Ryan simply puts himself in a position to successfully field more plays than any other shortstop in baseball.
In the current state of baseball economics, Ryan isn't really a trade chip. He's a Jack Wilson among players like Troy Tulowitzki and Derek Jeter. No club in contention wants to carry a .179/.286/.274 bat, even if the glove is golden. When Seattle shipped Wilson to the Braves, they got back Luis Caballero, a wiry 19-year-old hitting .235/.400/.324 in the Dominican Summer League. Jack Zduriencik might see something in Caballero, but it's hard to justify trading away the best shortstop in the organization for a player like Caballero.
On the other side of the coin, Ryan's offense is by far the biggest concern in regards to deciding what to do with him. He looks to be working himself out of his seemingly bi-monthly slump, but as a career .248/.311/.333 hitter, he's not going to turn into a batter that big league hurlers pitch around. For most clubs, this isn't a problem. Erick Aybar, with seven years of big league experience, has a career slash line of .272/.315/.374, but like Brendan, Aybar isn't expected to be a huge contributor at the plate. That's a job reserved for the likes of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. For a club like the Seattle Mariners, however, finding ways to score runs is a Sisyphean task, and it shouldn't be.
That's where Nick Franklin comes into play.
So far, Franklin has a career triple slash line of .292/.361/.467 in the minors. Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball figures Franklin's Major League Equivalent triple slash could be about .258/.316/.395. That's not as generous as the .290/.350/.450 that Churchill projected in the Prospect Insider Handbook, but it's fairly close. Whichever way you slice it, there's no doubt that sort of offensive contribution will immediately impact Seattle's lineup.
Franklin's bat would fit nicely near the top or middle of the lineup. Here are the top four position players' triple slash lines sorted by OPS:
Kyle Seager | .262/.320/.456
Michael Saunders | .264/.328/.438
Jesus Montero | .264/.301/.413
Dustin Ackley | .255/.326/.355
Mike Curto tweets that Nick Franklin will play second base or shortstop with the Rainiers, and that when Frankin's at short, Carlos Triunfel will either sit or be the DH. Franklin had nothing left to prove in the Southern League, and if he continues to rake in the Pacific Coast League, he could force an early, final promotion.
Daren Brown has seemingly made it clear that he would rather sit Triunfel than take away at-bats from Vincent Catricala or Nick Franklin. At 22-years-old, there's still a thread of hope that Triunfel will see big league time, but his clock is slowly ticking away.
In the end, it's a statistical push. Franklin will contribute more at the plate than Ryan will, but Ryan will flash the leather better than anyone in the majors. It's a good problem to have, but it just complicates things. Giving Ryan a two-year deal this off-season will give Seattle enough of a cushion to decide what to do long term at shortstop, while holding onto the best defensive shortstop in the game.
The Mariners are rebuilding and still struggling to find an identity. They've scored almost 100 more runs on the road than at home, and if they want to compete in the American League, they have to be able to have competent at-bats. Individuals on the team are still struggling to find something they excel at. However, even with all of the team's struggles, it doesn't make sense to let go of someone who can truly say they are the best at what they do.
Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.
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Comments
The following 9 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Boy9988 on 06-20-2012 22:15:07 There are three places on the field where it is ok to sacrifice offense in favor of defense. SS, CF, and C. I'm ok with the idea that we have Ryan and Guti on the team, regardless of their offensive value as long as they can hold the title as "Best Defender in the game at their position." I say we keep Ryan and if nothing else, leave him as the late game replacement that Kawasaki currently holds. Ryan is ridiculously good at what he does, and should be held onto. |
| 2. By: marinerforever on 06-20-2012 22:23:35 Jason Any chance franklin duplicates aa sucess in aaa he gets the september call up |
| 3. By: short on 06-20-2012 22:40:20 Does the fact that Olivo is better at looking lost both at and behind the plate mean we should keep him too? But, seriously, I was wondering if you thought the team would be moving Brad Miller up to Jackson now that Franklin has moved on. He seems the natural candidate, at least with the bat. Are Miller's errors (21) a concern that could hold him back? |
| 4. By: Adam B. on 06-20-2012 23:57:56 I would bet some folding money that Franklin will at least be up for a September cup of coffee; If not much sooner as Mr. Wong pointed out. As nice as it will be to have an actual stick at short, there is definite value to having Ryan's defensive value in the teams back pocket. Situations like the Dee Gordan out during the no-hitter make Ryan's contributions quite evident. If the Mariners could sign Ryan to another 2-yr/3M contract, it would be a boon for the team. A contingency in case of injury/under-performance (Leather doesn't slump...) and best case, a quality glove off the bench. |
| 5. By: docsmith on 06-21-2012 04:13:43 I like it. Sign Ryan for 2 yrs at $3-3.5 per. Similar to the Vargas discussion earlier, the M's need to transition plan to the kids. Plus, as you say, Ryan is more than just a place holder, he is the best defensive SS in the game. Only issue will be ABs. We are developing talent at each IF position. So, do we simply rotate Seagar, Ryan, Ackley, and Franklin at 3B, SS, 2B and occasionally 1B? This doesn't even consider Liddi or Catricala. Because of the AB issue, I can see the logic of M's going 1 or 2 yrs on Ryan. Personally, I am hoping Franklin gets a Sept call up and then to see him up for good ~next July or even 2014. No reason to start his clock too early. As it stands, he is what, 21 now? |
| 6. By: Jerry on 06-21-2012 06:58:43 I think it's odd that people project offensive performance, but not defense. Remember when almost everyone thought it was crazy to have Ackley play 2B, and said he'd have to really hit to make up for subpar D. But he's been solid, if not spectacular there. Montero seems to be sticking at C, and most thought his best case scenario there was brutal. It's funny reading projections, because most seem to expect hitting (especially power) to improve, but defense to decline. Judging on all the scouting reports, it seems like Franklin is way ahead of Ackley and Montero. Is it unreasonable to expect him to improve a bit? If he is average or slightly above, and hits .280/.350/.450 with 20 sbs, that's a very good player. |
| 7. By: micahjr on 06-21-2012 13:43:09 Hitting .280/.350/.450 at SS is not "a very good player," that is a potential all-star. |
| 8. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 06-21-2012 15:12:31 Jason or anyone else wnating to chime in, what are peoples views on Ackley, Montero, and Smoak as far as called up too early or not? I remeber years ago when they called up Edgar and it seemed like M's waited way too long for him. I don't think M's will wait too long for this batch but what are determining factors? With the movement of Hultzen and Franklin up to AAA, they were no longer challenged in AA....Maybe I just answered my own question...that they are dominant and when they are not challenged then bring 'em up. I also remember time when M's had hardly any home grown position players on the roster. At least any that mattered. Z has brought change....hooray |
| 9. By: Adam H. Wong on 06-22-2012 08:43:34 If Franklin rakes in the PCL like in did in the SL, once he gets the call to the majors he'll stay there. If the M's are looking to be competitive in 2013/2014, Franklin needs those big league at-bats. |
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