Prospect Insider - Bonderman's work cut out for him

Bonderman's work cut out for him

By Brendan Gawlowski

By 03-04-2013

In the midst of his brief comeback attempt in the spring of 1991, a young college baseball coach told Jim Palmer "you'll never get into the Hall of Fame with those mechanics." Whether that was said tongue in cheek or not, we don't know. In a sense though, Palmer could pitch without pressure because he, famously, was already in the Hall of Fame. Despite his ease of mind and the state of the hapless '91 O's (who would go on to lose 95 games), Palmer didn't make the team out of Spring Training and he hung up his spikes for good that March.

Jeremy Bonderman's audition with the Seattle Mariners this spring lacks the notoriety and amusing anecdote that accompanied Palmer's return, but he too is trying to crack a big league rotation after a lengthy spell away from the game. It wasn't too long ago that the former Pasco (Wash.) High School standout was regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

Bonderman, now 30, broke into the majors at the ripe age of 20 and found himself atop the rotation for the American League champion Tigers just three years later. But injuries took their toll on the promising righty, robbing him of his effectiveness, and eventually forcing him into a brief retirement after the 2010 season.

Now, two years since he last threw a major league pitch, Bonderman faces steep odds to break camp with the Mariners and get his career back on track.

Despite two years away from the game, Bonderman's name still resonates because of his success as a young pitcher in Detroit. As a twenty-three year old in 2006, Bonderman was one of the hardest throwers in the league, complementing a 93 MPH fastball with a biting slider that regularly topped 85 MPH. He posted a 3.29 FIP that season, a campaign backed by strong peripherals, including an 8.5 K/9 ratio and a healthy groundball rate.

Bonderman took a statistical step back in 2007, but it wasn't until the following season that the wheels fell off of his career. After a strong start to the 2008 season, Bonderman began having problems with his release point, causing him to throw noticeably slower. His wobbly mechanics and diminishing velocity were eventually traced to a blood clot in his shoulder, a scary condition that limited him to just thirteen starts over 2008 and 2009. "Healthy" in 2010, Bonderman took the worst beating of his career. His average fastball velocity tumbled under 90 MPH and he set career-worst marks in ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, and HR/9.

Physically, Bonderman was a much different pitcher by then, and his poor performance affected him mentally as well. He retired after the season, later telling Jason Beck of MLB.com that he "got a little bored at not throwing the ball very well... Getting your [butt] kicked every day... got old."

After sitting out all of 2011, he attempted a comeback with Cleveland on a minor league contract in 2012. But elbow damage caused Bonderman to fail his physical, and he missed all of last year while recovering from April Tommy John surgery.

After years of setbacks, this spring might represent something of a last chance for Bonderman. He will need to prove that his arm has bounced back from a litany of injuries quickly, as Seattle's bevy of rotation options leaves Bonderman no room for a poor spring: Felix Hernandez, Joe Saunders and Hisashi Iwakuma are already penned into the starting five, with Erasmo Ramirez a near lock as well.

Bonderman thus finds himself in a battle with a half dozen experienced veterans and promising young arms (most notably Blake Beavan, Danny Hultzen, and Jon Garland) for the final spot in the rotation.

Thus far, Bonderman hasn't been impressive. Statistics in spring training matter very little, so I'm willing to discard the results of his first outing (he conceded a home run and a walk, leading to three runs). I'll also shrug off the problems he had locating his slider, as Tommy John surgery and two years on the shelf are poor preparation for pinpoint command of a breaking ball. Even his second outing, which was nearly a repeat of the first, left a lot to be desired.

I'm slightly more concerned, however, by the lack of oomph he's had on the fastball. His heater never topped 90 in the first outing, sitting mostly in the 87-89 range. He was 89-91, touching 92, in the first inning of appearance No. 2, but sat 87-88 in the second frame. That's worrisome, not only because such velocity is a far cry from where he sat a half decade ago, but also because he's only worked for 1-2 innings and could thus afford to air it out a little more than pitchers do in standard starts.

I'll grant that it's not unusual for pitchers to work cautiously early in the year, and I do want to avoid sounding like I'm reading too much into spring training data, but it's also fair to say that there haven't been any glaringly good signs regarding Bonderman or his velocity thus far.

It'll be an issue to monitor with him all spring. With so much competition, Bonderman will need a strong showing to have a chance to make the roster. Control was never his strength and fine command rarely returns quickly after Tommy John surgery, so it'll be imperative for him to demonstrate that he has strikeout stuff again. If he can't do so, he won't make the team. Unfortunately for Bonderman, there's little statistical or anecdotal evidence to believe he will at this point.

Follow Brendan on Twitter here and email him at Gawlowski@ProspectInsider.com.

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Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Docmilo on 03-04-2013 05:40:12
Will Bonderman go to Tacoma or is he MLB or bust? If he's serious about being back in the show you think he would at least accept an assignment thru May/June and have it in his contract that he becomes a FA if not on the big league club.

I would think it's going to be tough for him to overtake Garland and Beavan at this point.

2. By: Rockstar Parking on 03-04-2013 07:08:41
I'd guess Bonderman will be in Tacoma until at least June 1st. Enough places are describing this as likely, I'm assuming he'll accept an assigment there, at least on a short term basis. I haven't read anything about having an out in his contract for not being with the big club on opening day, or on June 1st, but so many of these minor league contracts for veteran players are structured that way that it's safe to assume he has similar language. I'd assume Garland has a similar provision.

Unless something goes seriously wrong though (injuries or ineffectiveness from Garland), I'd personally be surprised if he gets a call to Seattle before June 1. By then one of the kids may be 1st in line for a spot anyway. I'm guessing we don't ever see Bonderman in the Seattle rotation. I really hope he does well and can make it back to the bigs, even if not in Seattle.

3. By: Edman on 03-04-2013 09:50:33
Get back to me in a couple of weeks, and I'll let you know what I think. Considering that he hasn't pitched in two years, I'm not going to worry too much at the moment. He's in camp to work things out.

4. By: maqman on 03-04-2013 11:34:53
Granted it's early days yet but it seems he may have a bigger hill to climb to get back to pitching in The Show compared to Garland. At this point I favor Beavan over Garland simply because of the team control that comes with him but if Garland is roughly his equal I'm guessing they go with the grizzled vet presence. This would allow them to trade Garland at the deadline for more farm fodder and make space for Beavan or one of the Big Four.

5. By: Mackie on 03-04-2013 17:38:06
Just playing devil's advocate, Maqman, but what if the Mariners are in contention at the trade deadline and Garland is pitching well? This is the time of year to dream about those kinds of things happening too! 8-) I want them to be buyers at the deadline, i.e. if they have some kids or spare parts to trade for a useful veteran or two to keep them in a race, why not?

But that's an awful long ways off, and the odds could be against it. Anyway, to paraphrase Edman, maybe that's the kind of stuff to discuss in a few months and not worry about too much at the moment. 8-)

As for Bonderman, I hope he still has something left. I love the way he's making the try, and I hope he can get some things worked out this spring. I'd like for the M's to at least have him around in AAA as insurance, and if he isn't ready to go by the end of spring training, maybe a couple of months in Tacoma would be what he'd need to finish that process.

6. By: rightwingrick on 03-05-2013 20:35:57
I think it's a pleasant surprise that Bonderman hit 91-92 in his second outing, even if it didn't hold up. Man, it's been two years and a Tommy John less than a year ago! If I'm the M's front office, I had a talk with him about TJ recovery time at signing, with the obvious discussion having to do with realistic comeback time and a probably AAA start to the season. I'm hoping the M's are on to something with both Garland and Bonderman.

I also think Beavan is more a lock for the #5 spot than is Ramirez.

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