| By Chris Crawford |  | By 12-14-2010 |
The winter meetings are over -- and while the off-season is far from over -- the rosters in the American League West are starting to take shape. Here's a closer look at what's coming, leaving and still in limbo for the division.
NOTE The numbers in parenthesis are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that those players accrued over the 2010 season. When the PECOTA projections are released for 2011, we'll go ahead and use those numbers instead.
Oakland Athletics:
Coming: David DeJesus (2.6), Hideki Matsui (1.9), Brandon McCarthy (0.0, 1.3 wins in 2009)
TOTAL: 4.5 wins
Going: Vin Mazzaro (0.0), Rajai Davis (1.2), Jack Cust (2.4)
TOTAL: 3.6 wins
Limbo: Ben Sheets (0.6), Justin Duchscherer (0.2), Eric Chavez (-0.4)
TOTAL 0.4 wins
Summary: The addition of Matsui probably wasn't the big splash they were hoping for, but they're trying. If the Angels decide that Adrian Beltre isn't in the cards, he may not have a choice but to turn his attention back to the Athletics. For now, they've improved, but Oakland has to be frustrated by the lack of a big name.
Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim
Coming: Scott Downs (1.2), Hisanori Takahashi (1.6)
TOTAL: 2.8 wins
Going: Hideki Matsui (1.9)
TOTAL: 1.9 wins
Limbo: Scot Shields(-0.4)
TOTAL: 1.5 wins
Summary: For a team that's been "in" on every major free-agent possible, to come away with Downs and Takahashi so far couldn't have been the goal in November. They are the most logical stop for Beltre, and probably Rafael Soriano -- but there's been little to no evidence of either happening soon. They'll make their move, but so far so meh for the Angels of Anaheim.
Texas Rangers
Coming: Yorvit Torrealba (2.4)
TOTAL: 2.4 wins
Going: Cliff Lee (7.0 with two teams), Rich Harden (-0.7), Brandon McCarthy (0.0, 1.3 in 2009)
TOTAL: 6.3 wins
Limbo: Bengie Molina (0.4, two teams), Vladimir Guerrero (2.6), Jorge Cantu (0.0), Cristian Guzman (-0.1, two teams)
TOTAL 2.9 wins
Summary When you have the kind of loss the Rangers just had, coming up with answers quickly isn't easy. But enough about Brandon McCarthy (see what i did there?).
In all honesty -- the Rangers are going to make another big move -- but replacing a Cliff Lee is nearly impossible unless they pony up the resources for Zach Greinke. They also have been rumored on the Beltre talks, but unless they find a sap to take Michael Young's contract that can't happen. The Rangers weren't exactly flawless before losing Lee, and now will have to rely on C.J. Wilson as their ace without making a blockbuster trade. All in all, being a Rangers fan would kind of stink right now.
Speaking of it stinks to be a fan of a team right now....(only kidding)!
Seattle Mariners
Coming: Miguel Olivo (3.2), Jack Cust (2.4), Brendan Ryan (1.0)
TOTAL: 6.6 wins
Going: Brian Sweeney (-0.1), Ryan Rowland-Smith (-1.6), Jose Lopez (0.7)
TOTAL -1.0 win
Limbo: Casey Kotchman (-1.1), Russell Branyan (2.0, two teams), Josh Bard (0.2), Jamey Wright (0.0, two teams), Ian Snell (-0.7)
TOTAL: 0.4 wins
Summary: Well look-e-here. The M's have improved more than any team in the AL West, again. You can question how they've done it, you can almost assuredly say that The PECOTA for Olivo will be significantly lower, and you can easily say that it isn't saying much. But here it is. The M's have added more to their roster than any team in the division this year, and may not be done. Does it make the team a contender? Absolutely not. Is progress always good? Yes with a capital Y.
Discuss!
al-west-movement:-volume-ii
Comments
The following 33 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: aerichner on 12-14-2010 22:06:05 I liked seeing this update with the Rangers missing out on Lee! :) question - and not like it really matters unless he's being talked about by the Mariners - did Rich Harden sign with the A's or not? I read first that he did and then I read that the A's were simply interested... |
| 2. By: Chris Crawford on 12-14-2010 22:07:43 I had read that he had, but I will look further into it, thanks for the heads up. |
| 3. By: StandinPat on 12-14-2010 22:39:16 What of Snell, Griffey and the other Sweeney? |
| 4. By: Chris Crawford on 12-14-2010 22:46:58 I could put Snell on the list, I guess. He's just as in limbo as Kotchman. Next week I'm likely taking Kotchman off the list, there's almost no chance he comes back. |
| 5. By: TheDudeAbides on 12-14-2010 23:00:09 Honestly, I love what the Mariners are doing this year. This is what we should have done in 2007. Take a year off from the "let's be competitive" model and let JZ do his work. For a fact, Jack was not all giddy and amped up with the club heading into 2010. He didn't think we would be a 100 loss team, but JZ was not going for broke. Here is how I have been putting it to the average fan, or someone like my mom, who wants to pretend she cares but kind of wants to be "in the know" and look cool, all at the same time. So here we go. Essentially, Jack was at the derby and he had a horse that he was thinking would perform in the middle of the pack. Then at the winter meetings last Dec a fellow named Ruben said he had a great jockey available, the 2nd best, as he wanted the top jockey and could not keep both because it would be expensive, and kind of awkward (Just as it probably was for my dad when I was 7 and waiting for Griffey's autograph at Spring Training, but instead got Pete O'brien's and told him he could keep the ball now because he ruined it). This derby is cool because you can trade jockeys half way through the race. Well, Jack's horse was not looking to good as he had a lot of excess fat up the middle and not a lot of power. Jack knew there was not going to be a lot of power, but he would give it a go and see if they could win by strategy, positioning, and their jockey. Well, sadly it did not work-out, but it really didn't hurt much because Jack knew he held a longshot ticket. He also planned to trade that jockey if they did not get a good start out of the gate. So, Jack traded for some new steroids everyone loves in order to give the horse some more power for next year. And Jack also made the move because the steroids were cheap, nothing that could affect his budget negatively in the future. He also got some fat trimming pills that are a long-shot to be great but can be good for the horse, can't hurt. Jack has gained some nice weapons that could really pump that horse up, let's hope it is the same steroids that horse named Brady Anderson took over a decade ago. Ok kids, so that is the bedtime story for the day. What did we learn? Don't work for 16 hours straight on a computer then come home and read your baseball blog, even worse, post a comment. Now I am that guy, the weird one, but it is ok because I'm going to bed. Anyway, story aside, I thought bringing in Cust, a guy like Ryan and a catcher would be the moves. You don't need to go big this year. It won't help attendance and it won't help the club, especially after the money thrown around at the meetings. The only move I question is Olivo, and I'm good with giving Jack the benefit of the doubt. Helk, he got our biggest chip coming into this offseason for nothing two years ago...DA. This is his team and he has this year and next year to show a good amount of improvement and then you go big in 2013 and beyond. Jack has a good business model, let's just hope for the best. K, now to bed. The 13 cups of coffee have worn out sadly, but the good news is the mini heart attacks have also vanished. |
| 6. By: TheDudeAbides on 12-14-2010 23:24:24 Ok fella's, so I am going to move to annual right now and I will also sign-up one of my buddies tomorrow as a gift. He did view content using my password a few times until I told him to quit being "the guy who is too cheap to pay 3 bucks per month for awesome insider info." Seriously, you guys do an awesome job and I love checking the site a few times per day and reading the articles, insight, rumors, and comments. There are not many users who are outlandish and are simply looking to stir the pot. There is good banter, but it is also nice to hear other peoples opinions. You are good guys and put a lot of time into this and I'll gladly buy a subscription for a friend. Merry Christmas! and Happy Holidays, Hannukah, Festivus, Agnosticus to all of those who are not perfect like I am. "The Dude Abides" - The Big Lebowski (For those who have not seen this movie, rent it, order it, buy it. Just watch it, amazing flick. For all who don't like it, I'll buy you a beer at Prospect Insider Night in Tacoma this year! |
| 7. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-15-2010 00:06:57 Oh, I know the movie. I know the movie. I even named my wi-fi connection Lebowski. I'm still fervently hoping Zduriencik gets all Obi-Wan Kenobi with some creative move before spring training. As for Brady Anderson taking steroids, TheDude...call me a bright-eyed optimist on the matter- but I've always believed him innocent on that deal. He was a 190-pound outfielder, and he stayed 190 pounds soaking wet all throughout his playing career. I can NEVER remember him looking obviously-'roided-up like I do Jason Giambi and Mark McGwire. Of course, I could also say Barry Bonds. But the man has never 'fessed up and never failed a drug test, so my suspicions that I share with anyone that has half a brain cell working will have to remain that- suspicions. So where did Brady's 50 dingers come from that year? Search me(No. Don't, actually. TSA is enough violation for one man to stand.). I do want a Prospect Insider night at Tacoma this year. There's a number of us that I've corresponded with over the last couple years that I'd love to meet in person. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-15-2010 00:25:36 13!? |
| 9. By: baseballman on 12-15-2010 00:47:55 I agree with rocket, a PI night at Tacoma should be a must. Itd be great to put faces (and real names) behind everyone here |
| 10. By: Jackson on 12-15-2010 02:57:50 If you click 'Show Partial Seasons' on the Fangraphs player page you can get the splits for someone like Cliff Lee, 3.9 WAR with the Mariners and 3.1 with the Rangers. |
| 11. By: Hackinator on 12-15-2010 06:06:59 Dude, great idea couple of sasparillas in T town ... I just hope its scheduled when I go for my yearly visit. |
| 12. By: Galway on 12-15-2010 07:52:31 The M's need to learn this is what happens when you find a stranger in the alps. (all time worse network edit of a movieline by John Goodman) |
| 13. By: bcsimons on 12-15-2010 09:56:05 I just read the article by Larry Stone and the follow-up by O'Keefe at proballnw and was just wondering you guys thought. Would he be wroth giving up? Could we expect a package of Cano, Montero, and two other top tier prospects? And wouldn't, if we did get Cano and Montero, fill spots that we have plans for soon in Ackley and Smoak? |
| 14. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-15-2010 10:25:28 Adding a piece like Cano instead of Hughes would create a HUGE hole in the rotation. Montero is blocked at 1B unless you want have a prospect at DH. I don't like the idea of trading with the Yankees. Even if we were to get a big return, there's nothing that would make me want to deal for him with NY. Let'em rot! |
| 15. By: Rick Randall on 12-15-2010 10:57:31 Been reported that Felix has the Yankees on his no-trade list. Must like beating them. Also, the Yankees would be even less likely to deal Cano than we would to deal Felix. So the trade idea should be dead. |
| 16. By: masonb on 12-15-2010 11:22:47 Cano, Banuelos, Hughes and Montero for Felix and I'd tell the Yanks if they offered any less to stop wasting their time. Felix HAS to stay on this team. If anybody wants him, they'd have to get ridiculous |
| 17. By: eastcoastmariner on 12-15-2010 11:23:53 Sorry to be off topic here, but I have a question I was hoping one of you guys could answer: Forgive me for naivety here, but how long can a club keep a player under team control before they are eligible for free agency? To use a practical example such as Dustin Ackley, my understanding is that if Ackley was called up to the big leagues in June, the Mariners would then control his rights for the following six seasons (2012-2017), of which, the last three seasons Ackley would be arbitration eligible. Am I correct in this assumption? Or would 2011 also be counted as 1 of the 6 years of club control? Thanks! |
| 18. By: bunvt on 12-15-2010 11:35:16 Here's a fun game that I was mulling in my own head. Is there any 'one' player in the MLB that you would trade Felix for? For me it would have to be someone the caliber of Pujols circa 3+ years ago. |
| 19. By: Rick Randall on 12-15-2010 11:41:59 Saw you ask in another thread and thought Jason would answer, eastcoastmariner. Here it is, straight from MLBPA: Once a player signs a contract, team control lasts 6 seasons. Any player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. There are MANY more tweaks and stipulations that make special cases, such as the 17%/86 days thing for "Super Twos"...I'm not getting into that right now. |
| 20. By: JohnMcD on 12-15-2010 12:31:46 What is the point of trading Felix. I asked Jason about it and he said he would probably do it if we got double what the rangers got for teixeria. |
| 21. By: Edman on 12-15-2010 12:41:46 There is no way Seattle trades Felix to anyone, so why pretend it could happen? |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-15-2010 12:52:11 I think the chances Felix is traded within the next 11 months are 1%. But I can't think of one team that has what it takes to convince me it's a good idea. The Yankees would have to send me Montero, Betances, Cano, Banuelos, and take on Milton Bradley's contract for me to consider it. |
| 23. By: d2ret on 12-15-2010 13:13:33 Sick. |
| 24. By: maqman on 12-15-2010 13:29:50 Trading Felix is just stupid. Given his age, ability and durability he's the best pitcher in the game and probably the most valuable player. He makes the M's respectable. |
| 25. By: TheDudeAbides on 12-15-2010 14:19:24 Hackinator an Galway, love it. "The is what happens when you finger a stranger in the alps" maybe the funniest thing I have heard in awhile. Definitely a PI night in T-town would be great, as would consuming a few sarsaparillas. And for all those who have not signed up for PI insider subscription, do it as you with thank yourself later. Sorry for leading this post just a bit off course, but that is what happens when you are up for almost 24 hours straight. You get a tad bit giddy. |
| 26. By: TheDudeAbides on 12-15-2010 14:34:18 On the Felix front, I agree with Jason it would take something like a three teamer with New York also giving us Eli Manning. Jason and I have had conversations on this over the past few months. I brought up that with four years left, you would pretty much get the same haul as you would in two years. That being said, I would also listen to anything. It would be nice if we could trade Felix to the Yankees for 2011 and maybe 2012. Have them ship us Montero and Banuelos and we get Felix back next year for Rob Johnson. You could also do something where we get Montero, B brothers, Sanchez, and they acquire Felix and Bradley, as well as send us $40 million. The only problem I have with that is the Mariners would pocket the cash and it would some how never get used. After what the Giants did this year, the value of Felix went up even more. Remember, Felix is not hung like a horse, horses are hung like Felix! |
| 27. By: TheDudeAbides on 12-15-2010 14:43:22 On the Felix front, I agree with Jason it would take something like a three teamer with New York also giving us Eli Manning. Jason and I have had conversations on this over the past few months. I brought up that with four years left, you would pretty much get the same haul as you would in two years. That being said, I would also listen to anything. It would be nice if we could trade Felix to the Yankees for 2011 and maybe 2012. Have them ship us Montero and Banuelos and we get Felix back next year for Rob Johnson. You could also do something where we get Montero, B brothers, Sanchez, and they acquire Felix and Bradley, as well as send us $40 million. The only problem I have with that is the Mariners would pocket the cash and it would some how never get used. After what the Giants did this year, the value of Felix went up even more. Remember, Felix is not hung like a horse, horses are hung like Felix! |
| 28. By: DMac33 on 12-15-2010 15:41:07 I don't know how anybody can be terribly happy about anything going on with the Mariners going into 2011 ... it's going to be a long year. The reality is that everything has to be thought about in the long term because this team isn't close to competing IMO. To me, there are really two ways to go about this: 1) Put together a balanced team that has the depth to be good each day for 162 days during the year. 2) Put together a roster that has enough front line pieces that could make the difference in October - provided that you can get there. It's long been my opinion that you don't win in October without having difference makers throughout your roster that can influence and impact a series. Anybody with a brain knew that San Francisco would be a tough out if they could get to October with the front of their rotation. Once they got there, good luck beating them (even for the Phillies - which convinced them to add another arm just in case). Right now, the Mariners have exactly ONE of those pieces in Felix. The question is how long will it take for them to get 2-3 more of those pieces around him? The Mariners act and talk like a team that really can't figure out if they are interested in winning. They talk about a lack of fan interest but fail to take into account the fact that there is nothing about their team (save for Felix and every once in a while what Ichiro does) that is entertaining to the average fan. The good news is that they are starting to at least get pieces. Can Smoak turn into a difference maker at 1B? How close is Ackley to the bigs? Can Figgins rebound enough to be able to either have value to the Mariners or another team. The bad news is that the rotation behind Felix is nothing special other than what could be a few arms that are knocking on the doors in the minors. If they turn out fine that will go a long way. The other major problem is the complete lack of power within the system and ready to go. With Figgins at 3B and Ichiro in RF, you have 2 slap hitters taking up power positions in the lineup. Add in Gutierrez in CF and you have what I'd term 3 weak bats in the lineup (at least according to power). There's always the realistic probability that SS and C are also soft spots. Hence, the lineup has to be strong at 1B, 2B, LF, and DH as presently constructed. I know it's not popular to discuss trading Felix or Ichiro, but the reality is that to build the team with young players that are necessary, someone has to be traded. In an ideal world, Felix is the one that you keep. But, with the Japanese presence, is Ichiro off-limits? Given the way this organization is currently constructed, Ichiro is a $19 million (or whatever) luxury that this team can't afford. Trading him for a few prospects would not be such a bad idea if a fit could be found. |
| 29. By: Mackie on 12-15-2010 16:30:56 Before things get a whole lot better for the M's in the win-loss column, it's obviously necessary to look at 2011 first. I think things might get a bit worse or maybe they might get marginally better next season, but I don't think it will look a whole lot better right away. Many fans, particularly the more casual ones, want immediate improvement and don't seem to understand why the team can't become an instant contender. Sadly, it doesn't often work out like that. Making a significant improvement will require a lot of pieces falling in place just right, of course, and it will probably have to happen over time (like maybe over the next couple of seasons). If things aren't happening by mid-season 2012, it seems that would be the time for the Mariners to start thinking about what they could get in a deal for Felix, assuming he is still pitching lights-out at that point. I tend to look at things more like the glass is half full. I think that by a year and a half from now, the team will be making some nice strides toward being a contender. But I think the M's can facilitate this, help it happen sooner, by acquiring some players who are major-league average or above, particularly for the rotation. It would be nice to add someone now, to take some of the burden off guys like Fister and Vargas for next year. We can hope their 2010 seasons weren't flukes, and by mid-season we'll have a better idea about that. But even with the need for offense, let's add some more pitching now too. Looks like with the additions of Cust and Olivo, they have C and DH covered for 2011. But I would like to see them add a decent SP for the rotation, and add a decent bat.. maybe that bat in LF. Then if pieces fall where we would like them to (Figgins, Gutierrez and Ryan return to previous better form, and Smoak produces), the team could be around .500 somewhere. Not a *whole* lot better... but still better. |
| 30. By: slamcactus on 12-15-2010 16:34:53 "There are MANY more tweaks and stipulations that make special cases, such as the 17%/86 days thing for "Super Twos"...I'm not getting into that right now." Super-two doesn't affect club-control. It just affects how soon a player gets to arbitration. 6 years of service time is the answer. |
| 31. By: Rick Randall on 12-15-2010 17:17:17 I was speaking about arb there, slam. But you are correct - 6 years. |
| 32. By: Lailoken on 12-15-2010 20:34:06 A's sign Harden to a semi-sweet deal: 1 year, 1.5 mill w/ incentives. His WAR was -0.7 for the Rangers in 2010. Worth the risk IMO. The high risk, high reward crowd has dwindled down to Sheets, Wang, Webb, & Chris Young. |
| 33. By: StandinPat on 12-16-2010 00:48:47 They're also talking about using him in the bullpen...so there's that |
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
|
|
 |
|
|
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome |