Prospect Insider - 2012 Draft Preview

2012 Draft Preview

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-18-2012

The 2012 First-Year Players Draft takes place June 4-6, which is less than five months away. The 2012 draft order can be seen here.

The class is again a below-average crop, as was last year's, but the strength of the class of '12 lies in the prep kids, making it a much more risky venture than we've seen in several years.

There will still be impact players, however, and the interest wanders beyond that to how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will impact the draft.

Each club has a set pool from which to pay bonuses and steep penalties will incur should they exceed those limits.

Let's preview the talent:

College Pitching
Last year's college pitching crop was outstanding; thirteen collegiate arms went in the first 60 picks, including the first three selections.

This year's class doesn't have the depth of the 2011 class but there are still quality arms that should go high once June rolls around.

The most talked about name –- for good reason –- is Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander has a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can go as high as 97 with run. His slider has good tilt when he stays on top of it. Appel also throws a change-up that is closer to a show me pitch than anything at present, but is good enough to be an average offering with work.

Some scouts have concerns that with his quality stuff he didn't miss bats quite enough, but his arsenal and control are good enough to put him at the top of the board to start the year.

Kevin Gausman is the best draft-eligible sophomore in this year's class. The LSU right-hander has plenty of movement on a fastball that reaches 94 mph, sitting more comfortably in the 90-93 range. Gausman's breaking-ball needs considerable work, but he has good arm action on his change-up that will sink down and away to right-handed hitters. The former Dodgers draft pick will have to improve his delivery and command considerably, but his build, arm-strength and command give him a chance to be a top 10 pick.

One of the real "who is he?" names of the class is Georgia Southern's Chris Beck. Beck can run his fastball up to 93, and reports are that he maintains his velocity deep into games, giving him an "innings eater" tag. He repeats his delivery well and his breaking-ball and change-up should be above-average offerings at the next level. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound right-hander may not have the upside of Appel and Gausman, but his arsenal suggests a quick path through the minors with the potential to be a top of the rotation starter.

It's a down year for left-handed pitching, but Florida's Brian Johnson is the best of a thin group. The Gators ace throws four average to above-average pitches, including an 88-92 mph fastball and a slider that breaks late and hard, which can be highly effective versus left-handed bats. I'm not a fan of his delivery, but he gets rave reviews for his makeup and could go in the mid-to-late first round with a big year.

While the starting pitching is down a bit from last year, the reliever class resembles the '09 and '10 classes. Duke right-hander Marcus Stroman draws Tom Gordon comparisons with a lights-out curveball and mid 90's fastball. The command is merely average, but as a reliever, it doesn't need to improve much for him to be an effective late-inning option in the bigs. Virginia's Brandon Kline doesn't have the stuff of Stroman, but he commands his fastball and breaking ball very well and could be a late sandwich-round selection to a team looking for a "slot" pick.

Others to watch:
Michael Wacha, RHP -- Texas A&M
Jake Barrett, RHP -- Arizona State
Kyle Zimmer, RHP -- San Francisco
Nolan Sandburn, RHP -- Arkansas
Lex Rutledge, LHP -- Samford

- Chris Crawford

College Bats
It's a shallow class of college hitters for the fourth straight year -- the 2008 class boasted Buster Posey, Pedro Alvarez, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham, Brett Wallace, Jemile Weeks, Brett Lawrie, Ike Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jaff Decker, James Darnell and Brent Morel, all in the top 90 picks -- but it's not without its intrigue.

Led by Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero and Florida catcher Mike Zunino, there are about a half-dozen potential first-round college bats. Marrero is a solid defender with no questions about the glove, but he also brings some value at the plate.

Zunino profiles as an average catcher with plus power and a potentially average or better hit tool. There's enough arm strength and receiving skills to feel good about his future position, and his makeup is off the charts.

Victor Roache, a right-handed hitting outfielder from Georgia Southern, gets a lot of attention for plus power but he has holes in his swing, starting with a backside collapse which opens him up to the breaking ball away. If he can't close that hole, he's probably not a big league regular and that big of an issue is tough to fix at this stage.

Stanford third baseman Stephen Piscotty is a solid all-around player and could land in the Top 40 picks, and Stony Brook outfielder Travis Jankowski has a shot at the first day thanks to game-changing speed and a polished approach at the plate. There are some questions with the swing but he's also a legit center field prospect.

Josh Elander, out of TCU, is the No. 2 college backstop
in the country and burst onto the scene this past summer after starting sparingly his first two seasons. CLubs have to dream on him a but, but he's 6-foot-1 and a sturdy 215 pounds with a 55 arm. He's got power at the plate, too, always a valuable combination.

Others to Watch:
Richie Shaffer, 3B -- Clemson
Tyler Naquin, OF -- Texas A&M
Kenny Diekroger, SS -- Stanford
Fernando Perez, 3B -- Central Arizona JC
Adam Brett Walker, 1B/OF -- Jacksonville

- Jason A. Churchill

High School Bats
There's no Bubba Starling in this year's class, but there's still plenty of depth to be found at the prep level, particularly in the outfield and behind the plate.

The best of the class is Appling County's (Ga.) Byron Buxton, an outfielder who is a plus-plus runner that also possesses lightning quick bat speed. Of all the hitters I saw at the Under-Armour All-American game this summer, Buxton was the most impressive and he showed well at other showcases over his offseason.

The University of Georgia commit also pitches, throwing a low 90's fastball, but his future is in the outfield, where he profiles more as a right fielder than in center, despite the speed. Sound like anyone in the Boston Red Sox outfield?

Like most prep players, he's still very raw, but it wouldn't surprise anyone to see the right-handed hitter go in the top 10.

One of the more polished high school hitters available come June will be Oak Mountain (Ala.) outfielder David Dahl. The left-handed hitting Dahl has an advanced approach at the plate, and with above-average speed and base-running ability some believe the Auburn commit profiles as a future leadoff hitter. He uses all parts of the field, and while he-s more of a gap-to-gap hitter now, as he fills out he should be able to provide average power. He's not a plus defender in the outfield, but he has enough range and
good enough arm-strength to be a solid corner guy.

While he's not an absolute lock to stick behind the plate, the best prep catching prospect is Acadania High (La.) catcher Stryker Trahan. A commit to Ole Miss, Trahan has plus power to the pull-side and above-average bat speed. His plate discipline is solid. Defensively, there's
plenty of arm strength and quickness, it's just a matter of figuring out the nuances of the position. If worse comes to worse, the bat plays well in a corner-outfield position, and Trahan has above-average foot speed to aid in such a transition.

Trey Williams is one of the most talented -- albeit frustrating –- players in the class, tantalizing scouts with plus bat speed from the right side and is one of the more athletic players in the class.

Williams currently profiles as a third baseman, and has plenty of arm-strength with good hands. The Pepperdine commit didn't show as well during some of the summer showcases, but a big year and bloodlines -- his father, Eddie, is a former big leaguer -- could push him into the first-half of the first-round.

While most high-school hitters are raw, Galveston Ball (Texas) outfielder Nick Williams might take
it to the next level. Williams has tremendous raw power and athleticism, but that hasn't necessarily translated to results at the high-school level. Williams also pitches and has plenty of arm-strength, though his mechanics both in the field and on the mound need significant work. it's mostly projection right now, but few have more talent than Nick Williams.

Carlos Correa, a shortstop from the Puerto Rican Baseball Academy, could crack the top half of the first round as the best prep shortstop in the class, and Addison Russell, likely the No. 2 pure shortstop in the prep crop, could hit his way into the discussion for the latter portion of the round and is a definite Day 1 pick based on talent.

Joey Gallo, who landed at No. 1 on my Top 10 Prep Corner Infielder Rankings, is likely a first baseman in the Freddie Freeman mold and is receiving attention as a first round player.

Others to Watch:
Gavin Cecchini, SS -- Garbe HS (Miss.)
Rio Ruiz, 3B -- Bishop Amat HS (Calif.)
Jesse Winker, OF -- Olympia High School (Fla.)
Albert Almora, OF -- Mater Academy (Fla.)

- Chris Crawford

High School Pitching
The strength of the class is in the upside of the prep pitching crop. Led by Harvward-Westlake (Calif.) co-aces Lucas Giolito, a right-hander, and southpaw Max Fried, we could see another run of prep arms in round 1 that resembles a similar result from 2009 when Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler, Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Matt Hobgood, Matt Purke and Chad James all cracked the first round.

Giolito has the upside scouts dream of; the big body at 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds and the velocity to match -- into tjhe mid-90s without much effort. Fried, projectable in his own right at 6-foot-4 and 175, appears more polished at this stage, sitting in the 89-92 mph range, but he's popped 95, too.

Lance McCullers has the best fastball in the class -- some have clocked him at 99-100 mph -- but his delivery suggests he's headed for a relief role. He's still a first-round prospect, especially for a club that believes they can make the proper adjustments that allow him to start long term.

Lefty Matt Smoral, all 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds of him, could rocket up the charts from a mid-to-late first round projection to a Top 8 pick if he gets a head start on that projectable frame.

Walker Weickel, a 6-foot-6 right-hander from Olympia High School in Orlando is quickly becoming a favorite of many, and could easily slide into the Top 10.

Others to Watch:
Hunter Virant, LHP -- Camarillo High School (Calif.)
Freddy Avis, RHP -- Menlo School (Calif.)
Mitchell Traver, RHP -- Houston Christian High School (Texas)
Ty Hensley, RHP -- Santa Fe High School (Okla.)
Duane Underwood, RHP -- Pope High School (Ga.)
Luke Sims, RHP -- Brookwood High School (Ga.)

- Jason A. Churchill

The Juggle at the Top
The early favorite for the No. 1 overall pick is Appel, but he's as far from a sure thing as any No. 1 pick in recent memory. The Astros, who own the top pick, could ultimately see enough in Fried, Smoral, Zunino or even Giolito, who would be the first right-handed prep arm to go No. 1 overall, to pass on Appel.

Buxton could be a wildcard for several clubs in the top 10. His upside suggests he could be the top prep position player this side of Bryce Harper in the last few years, but it might to too much of a stretch for the Astros with the top pick. With the Twins at No. 2, however, anything goes, as they have gone upside in the past with Aaron Hicks. If Appel goes to Houston, Minnesota could tab Buxton.

The top talents are not, by any stretch whatsoever, cemented in their current positions, however, and the new CBA could impact how clubs make their selections in the top 10, especially if there are questions about the value of the picks in the first place.

If they don't earn their way to that draft pick, clubs could choose a cheaper sign and looks to spend a little more of their draft pool later.

Northwest Top 15
The Northwest is again a strong area, despite not having a strong candidate for the first round. Washington dominates the group.

1. Carson Kelly, 3B -- Westview High School (Ore.)
2. Clinton Coulter, C -- Union High School (Wash.)
3. Dylan Lavelle, 3B -- Lake Stevens High School (Wash.)
4. Taylor Jones, RHP -- Kentwood High School (Wash.)
5. Andrew Pullin, OF -- Centralia High School (Wash.)
6. Mitch Gueller, RHP -- WF West High School (Wash.)
7. Cabe Reiten, SS -- Olympia High School (Wash.)
8. Johnny Locher, OF -- Highline High School (Wash.)
5. Jacob Lamb, 3B -- Washington
9. Mike Rucker, RHP -- Auburn-Riverside High School (Wash.)
10. Adrian Sampson, RHP -- Bellevue JC (Wash.)
11. Josh Graham, C/RHP -- Roseburg High School (Ore.)
12. Austin Barr, C -- Camas High School (Wash.)
13. Marty Luckenbach, RHP -- Woodinville High School (Wash.)
14. Tony Bryant, RHP -- Oregon State
15. Matt Mendenhall, 3B -- Southridge High School (Wash.)

- Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford

College Sleepers
Crawford: Travis Jankowski, OF -- Stony Brook
Churchill: Matt Reynolds, 3B -- Arkansas

High School Sleepers
Crawford: Lewis Brinson, OF -- Coral Spring High School (Fla.)
Churchill: Tanner Rahier, SS -- Palm Desert High School (Calif.)

Pac-12
Aside from Appel, Marrero, Piscotty, Diekroger and UW's Lamb, the Pac-12 offers the likes of UCLA right-hander Scott Griggs, whom the M's drafted in the 34th round in 2009, Arizona State outfielder Andrew Aplin, outfielder Jake Stewart at Stanford, Arizona State infielder Joey DeMichele, Cal's Justin Jones, a left-handed pitcher, and second baseman Tony Renda, Stanford outfielder Tyler Gaffney and lefty Brett Mooneyman, who had Tommy John surgery late last winter, and right-handers Brady Rogers and Jake Barret from Arizona State.

If you're looking for future draft flavor at Washington, keep an eye on slugger Trevor Mitsui ('14) and LHP Jared Fischer ('14).

The Seattle Mariners
The M's will select No. 3 overall and pick again at No. 62 in round 2 and likely at 93 in round 3. They have no extra picks until the supplemental third round, a selection they received after failing to sign Kevin Cron last summer. That pick is currently set at No. 125 overall.

Their second and third-round picks could still change if the remaining compensation-laden free agents, Raul Ibanez and Derrek Lee, sign big-league deals.

As for whom the club likes at No. 3, well, the best player available, as always. We can argue until we're blue in the face as to whether the M's did that a year ago by taking Danny Hultzen at No. 2 when Bubba Starling and Dylan Bundy were still available, but Hultzen may very well have been the best signable player.

The M's will not draft for need, so they won't simply take the best college bat, or the best hitter in general, for the sake of adding offense to the system. If Appel is available, they will consider him. They'll also likely look closely at Fried, Buxton, Marrero and Zunino.

I'd be surprised if they took a high school player with their top pick, however.

Pre-season Top 25

No.

Player

Position

School

Mark Appel

RHP

Stanford

Lucas Giolito

RHP

Harvard-Westlake HS

Byron Buxton

Appling County HS

Mike Zunino

Florida

Max Fried

LHP

Harvard Westlake HS

Deven Marrero

Arizona State

Christopher Beck

RHP

Georgia Southern

Kevin Gausman

RHP

LSU

Victor Roache

Georgia Southern

Walker Weickel

RHP

Olympia HS

Stryker Trahan

Acadania HS

Matthew Smoral

LHP

Solon HS

David Dahl

Oak Mountain HS

Gavin Cecchini

Garbe HS

Albert Almora

Mater Academy

Brian Johnson

LHP

Florida

Joey Gallo

1B/3B

Bishop-Gorman HS

Lance Mccullers

RHP

Jesuit HS

Stephen Piscotty

Stanford

Michael Wacha

RHP

Texas A&M

Trey Williams

Valencia HS

Marcus Stroman

RHP

Duke

Carlos Correa

P.R. Baseball Academy

Kyle Zimmer

RHP

San Francisco

Lucas Sims

RHP

Brookwood HS

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Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: short on 02-18-2012 01:08:39
The Mariners last year effectively turned the pick of Danny Hultzen into Jose Montero, because they could afford to trade Pineda. I love the analysis of the draft but the relationship between the particular person drafted and how it helps the team in the final analysis is sometimes impossible to predict. Buxton sounds exciting, but if Jack is confident in a different player I can't imagine a reason to doubt him at this point.

2. By: Edman on 02-18-2012 02:16:27
A lot of GMs talk about taking the best player available. Many do, some don't. Jack does, by all appearances.

I read someone complaining that Jack is a "pitcher first" guy in the draft. What? Didn't he draft Fielder and Braun?

I've heard him say it several times. You take the best player available. You never know what you're going to need in a couple of years. So, you take the best player. You can't go wrong, if you scout and draft well, with those guidelines.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 02:29:09
It's the best SIGNABLE player available, and the vast majority of clubs do it, if not all. The issue is, and here is where the discrepancy in BPA comes from, is that every club's "signability" charts are very different.

Bundy and Starling weren't signable for Seattle in 2011. Lindor and Bauer weren't deemed as signable for KC and Washington.

4. By: rotoenquire on 02-18-2012 10:21:53
@3 I think that gets missed a lot by fans in general they think in Basketball or football terms.

I like the article granted this is a bit a ways. But most scouting has been going on for awhile on these guys and the National Consensus is there are a top 1-10 that will not have there value change a whole lot.

5. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-18-2012 11:33:23
I'd be cool if we signed anybody in that top 8 excluding Beck. I want Jack to take the BPA. I think most of us do, but I also want to make sure that dude signs. Starling would've been awesome but from what I heard he probably wouldn't have come here. From what I've read Buxton sounds like my favorite, but if we don't think we can sign him then go out and get the next best player who will.

6. By: DUWORKSON on 02-18-2012 12:25:14
Jason, talking about prospects I don't know why the M's aren't more aggressively pursuing Jorge Soler? Scouts say that he's a younger version of Mike Stanton. I understand its gonna be expenive to sign the kid. Correct if I'm wrong but doesn't the organization have a seperate budget for international players. It's not like the kid would affect the MLB payroll.

7. By: rjfrik on 02-18-2012 13:32:48
As I said a couple of threads ago, I will be happy with any of Giolito, Zunino, Buxton and one of those three has to be there at #3, so for that I'm happy. I really only think there are 3 to 4 guys in this draft that will make a big impact and I'm glad the M's have a top 3 pick.

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 15:10:01
roto,

The players values DO change. They WILL change. The real question is, will those changes be enough to change where they go in the draft? How does signability come into play? Are there enough prospects outside the consensus top 10 or so that make enough progress to bump someone out? Injuries? Adviser impact...

None of those things are known today, but will be in a matter of a few months. So it WILL change. Always does.

9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 15:13:37
DUWORKSON,

We don't know for sure that they aren't in on Soler. The A's were mentioned once for Cespedes and signed him.

And Soler isn't Stanton, he's just got mass upside. May get $25 million.

And no, not a separate budget. That was all a lie. There are different ways to ledger things up for luxury tax purposes, but the M's don't need to worry about that. If they want Soler, they can afford him, period. Not sure he's worth a $25 mil investment, though. So much unknown, including age.

10. By: DUWORKSON on 02-18-2012 17:03:17
Jason, thanks for clarifying the budget. And, yes I don't know if the team is really pursuing Soler HARD. I agree that $25-30 mil. investment is steep for a 19yrs. old prospect. But like every scout and including you the upside is huge. Signing Soler would fit in JZ's youth-movement nicely. With the team two years away from truely contending. It would allow Soler to develop in the system for two until he gets promoted. By then hopefully the team is contending for a playoff spot. It's a huge gamble but the team is also gambling on Ackley, Montero, Smoak, Carp and the rest of the youths. I would rather gamble that money on Soler than trading another Michael Pineda type pitcher. And, if everything works out that investment is priceless.

11. By: Plowshare on 02-18-2012 17:50:17
Enjoyed the article except for the comment that Fried is more polished than Giolito. I've seen them both and this isn't the case at all. Giolito is by far the best prep pitcher in the class, IMHO. It comes down to whether a team wants a righty power pitcher with two plus offspeed pitches or a lefty with serious upside and a nasty curve. Giolito is already 6'6" and 240lbs. Fried 6'4" 180. Both will add 20-25 pounds as pros. Who goes first is anyone's guess.

12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 19:53:58
Plowshare,

You're wrong.

Fried, in the opinion of a good number of scouts judging from offseason and now early-season performances and showings, is throwing more consistent strikes with his entire arsenal, including a changeup that buries any change Giolito has ever thrown in his life.

I spoke to one crosschecker tonight that says Fried is clearly the more polished of the two, though he comes with a little less upside because Giolito has at least a shot to be an ace with mid-90s heat and a power breaking ball.

Anyone that says Giolito has a plus changeup right now doesn't what they are talking about.

Being more polished doesn't mean BETTER, either. If the draft were today, more teams would likely take Giolito before Fried based on upside. I would, at least right now.

Sorry you feel Giolito is as or more polished a pitcher in comparison to Fried, but it's just not true in any manner.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 22:01:43
DUWORKSON,

$25 mil is more than what the team guaranteed a polished Ackley and Hultzen, Walker, Franklin and Paxton, Victor Sanchez, Phillips Castillo, Pimentel, Miller, Capps and Littlewood... COMBINED.

Upside isn't the end-all in talent evaluation, the risk involved is a big part of it all. And I don't KNOW that it will take 25 mil, but some think the White Sox could try and blow out the top offer and if that happens it at least gets into the 20s, if not higher.

For a kid NOBODY knows all that much about off the field, that's too big a risk to just simply expect the Mariners to pony up.

Kid could be 22 for all we know.

14. By: dewey on 02-18-2012 22:41:43
All the hype behind these Cubans is making me sick my questuin is Jason is Soler 3x better then Bryce Harper? I will say my thoughts very clear NOT A FUCKING CHANCE...But teams keeping paying the hype hell Cespedes got paid like a ARB 3 guy after nothing its wrong.

15. By: short on 02-18-2012 23:54:50
Can't believe I called him "Jose" Montero. I think you go to hell for that, right?

16. By: DUWORKSON on 02-19-2012 01:24:26
Yes, I agree it's a huge risk to shell-out $25 mil to Soler a Cuban prospect. You make a very good and convincing argument with those eleven players combined money and cuban's track record of lying about their age. As a baseball junky its always nice to bounce ideas off with other baseball junkies. Please don't think that I'm trying to argue with you for the sake of arguing. I just think it's a caculated risk for several reasons. First reason top FA hitters are difficult to sign. If they do sign JZ has to overpay for the slugger just like the Prince Fielder scenario. Then the team is strap with a bad contract for the next decade. I actually thought it was very smart that JZ didn't sign Fielder. However, a player like Soler is essentially like having an extra first round top five pick in the amatuer draft. Second reason for every year that this team finishes as one of the worst team in the league less revenue it brings in. By signing Soler it speed up the process faster. You already read the third reason why. Trading a prospect like Pineda for Montero is a huge risk as well and it just opens up another hole the team needs to fix. Now I'm not advocating that JZ sign every international hype player that comes around just the ones that makes sense that can speed up the process.

17. By: Ungnome on 02-19-2012 09:53:42
What do we actually know about Jorge Soler?

18. By: zrininger on 02-19-2012 13:58:09
Dewey, I don't think anyone thinks that soler is worth 3x as much as harper. The difference is that Harper was not on the open market if he were to be, teams would probably pay 3x what they would for soler. The other thing that has not been brought up is that with the new cba international signings will be capped so teams are probably a little more willing to spend more knowing that they won't be able to send as much in the coming years.

19. By: Lailoken on 02-19-2012 14:05:02
JAC's take on Soler is pretty spot on IMO. Armando Rivera & Helsin Martinez are better risks.

Rivera is a reliever which will limit his cost & so long as his age is not more than a couple years off he's a solid candidate for the back end of a bullpen.

There are reasons behind Martinez's long delay in signing with a MLB team since July 2nd. Those reasons though are likely known to big league front offices & international scouting departments. Those issues have also likely driven his price down. Cheaper & known issues while still talented equates to a much better risk than Soler IMO.

20. By: Edman on 02-19-2012 20:09:04
DUWORKSON, and throwing away $25 million if Solar isn't as good as his hype, isn't a risk either? Did you scout Solar? Do you know anymore about him, other than the hype? Supposedly great Cuban players, don't have a great track record when it comes to risk-reward. Yet they're paid more than most International prospects? Why, because they play in a "professional" league?

The hole that trading Pineda makes, has many candidates for replacement. Seattle doesn't have a hitting prospect that compares to Montero. And, if he has a chance of developing and remaining at catcher, that's even better.

When the Cuban players start to prove that they're good enough to demand Major League money, then I'll be convinced. But to simply say that $25 million is a calculated risk, means also accepting that Jack and company have done the math, no matter what Seattle does. Being desperate is a Bavasi move.

21. By: slamcactus on 02-19-2012 20:31:13
"All the hype behind these Cubans is making me sick my questuin is Jason is Soler 3x better then Bryce Harper? I will say my thoughts very clear NOT A FUCKING CHANCE"

Could not be more apples and oranges a comparison. There's a big difference between free agency and monopoly. Cuban FAs get more because teams can bid against each other. Historically, they've gotten a pretty good deal. There's a big difference between that and a system where only one team can make an offer and there's no path to free agency.

22. By: rotoenquire on 02-19-2012 21:05:03
Jason

I said there won't be a whole lot of change(Not NO change). moving up and down a few slots is not dramatic. And one or two may drop out of the top 10 but will most likely barring DRAMATIC injury stay in the 1st round.

All this is based of conjecture in terms of scouting. Billy Bean was supposed to a 5 tool ones in a lifetime player. So were tens of hundreds of others.

For every scout that thinks one thing there is another that thinks something different. The best thing anyone can do is look at all the sites gather all the info and then look at the video clips and stats yourself and come up with what you think as a fan. Which is what some here do. Other just re-sight what others post and say trusting in the one or two places they find info.

Giolito from most sites and video I have seen looks to have a solid fast ball and good to above average breaking ball and his command maybe his strongest aspect.

Appel has 3 upper pitches fastball, Slider and Circle Change. He is more a ground ball pitcher right now then a strike out guy. Also as I stated before on another article his Whip total does concern me a lot.

Fried I have not had a chance to really read on or look at video. Maybe I will check him out after reading a lot of what is going on here..

23. By: greentunic on 02-20-2012 09:23:36
Jason,

You said this is "again a below-average" class of draftees. This implies that 2011 was below average as well (unless you were just saying for a second time this class was below average?).

I remember reading a lot last year about how strong that class was and many top-prospect lists this year mention there is a larger number than usual of newly-drafted players. So I'm wondering where my confusion can be remedied.

-Were you not saying last year's class was below-average and I misunderstood?
-Were those who said last year's class was really good simply wrong?
-Was last year's first round great and the rest not so great?

I'd really like to know! Thanks.

24. By: greentunic on 02-20-2012 09:24:38
Oh.. you said "as was last years"! So take out my first hypothesis. I'd still like to know!

25. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-20-2012 15:22:51

The only thing I know about the Mariners selection is: after being initially dismayed (and vocal about it!) by ALL of the likes of Nick Franklin, Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen, I'm gonna keep my yap shut this year and just trust in Zduriencik and his methodologies.

Steve Baron is pretty much the only draft pick in the last three draft classes that still makes me cringe/howl. I still hate that selection with every piece of my Mariner fandom.

But it must be said that most of the time when I've complained/offered up objections, I've been proven dead wrong.

If it were up to me and my druthers this year, the pick would be either Buxton or Zunino. But whoever Jack takes, I'm gonna trust it's the best long-term and signable choice out there.

The Ghost of Jeff Clement Selections looms large, though. I am fervently hoping that Zduriencik just. Doesn't. Screw Up. With Pick #3.

We're better off than where we were as an org, but a wrong selection would still hurt like hell.

26. By: rjfrik on 02-20-2012 22:45:35
We cannot afford to blow this pick or any pick in the top 5. No MLB team can really. But the M's, to me, can't afford to blow top picks more then most because we have a tough time getting a FA to come here.

With the way the front office blew their top picks for a decade the M's just can't afford to blow one of their top selections during this rebuild. This pick and next years pick will be crucial because after that I doubt the M's will have a top ten pick for a long long time.

In my opinion this is a year the M's can afford to grab a H.S. player and let him develop.

27. By: valencia on 02-21-2012 00:14:14
You can't blow a top draft pick. That's why Hultzen over Rendon made so much sense to me - Rendon might have more upside, but it just wasn't worth the risk with all the red flags Rendon had.

HS is always riskier, but the upside is always greater. And the college crop this year doesn't look great, so the risk might seem justified this time. Who knows, maybe it'll be like 2010's draft with 3 HS kids going 1-2-3.

28. By: jgstecker on 02-21-2012 08:13:53
The new draft rules may help Seattle a little this year. With the new "slotting" budgets, it makes pretty much any top pick singable.

The only reasons for a player not to sign now are:

A. He thinks he can be drafted higher in a later draft
B. He has a better opportunity than playing major league baseball - as in the case of Bubba Starling last year.

Anyone who's drafted #3 overall is a fool if they think they can get more than slot. And it would be an absurd risk to refuse to sign in the hopes of going 1st or 2nd in the next draft.

We should see true BPAs taken this year, at least in the early part of Round 1.

29. By: rjfrik on 02-21-2012 14:08:30
Very true jg. Good point. I still don't like the new rules at all because it really limits you in rounds 2-10. No more signing guys like Paxton in a later round with a big bonus, which sucks. The M's are a team that unfortunately has to build through the draft and IFA. Those have really been curbed with the new CBA.

But it might force players to lower their demands. We shall see.

On another note: Anyone else excited about Ichiro being our #3 hitter? I like it. I think he has a big year.

30. By: Edman on 02-21-2012 14:35:18
rjfrik, that's absolutely not true. The M's can still pick a Paxton in later rounds. They just can't pick several of them, like the Tigers did a couple years ago. The M's have about $11 million to spend on their first 11 picks, according to this article by Jim Callis.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/2012-aggregate-bonus-pools/

There are some teams with half that amount to spend.

All drafts consider signability.

31. By: Chris Crawford on 02-21-2012 14:55:18
Could be wrong Ed, but I believe that figure is how much the Mariners spent last year. The Mariners have a little over $8 million to spend for 2012.

32. By: rjfrik on 02-21-2012 16:38:31
This absolutely hamstrings you Ed. As Chris said, the M's have about 8 million to spend. Last year with roughly the exact same pick #2 vs #3 the M's spent about 10 million on their top ten. We are talking about roughly 2 million dollars they will not be able to spend and remember we didn't sign Cron last year in the third and we offered him a million dollars according to most estimates. So that disparity would of only been higher, roughly 3 million dollars if we had signed Cron. That's big and it absolutely limits you in later rounds. No more chasing guys who fall due to signage issues, ala Paxton or Bell (Whom the Pirates nabbed last year outside the first)

You either blow your wad at the top by signing one or maybe two impact players and then sign guys you know will sign for nothing by reaching for talent or you sign a bunch of guys you know will sign for slot in every round.

My only hope is that it makes the demands go down my the agents. I think this will make a lot of kids either go to college or return to college and limit the draft pool talent for about three or four years until we kids have to leave their schools for the draft due to graduation.

Personally I think Selig screwed up on this one. But we will see how it plays out. I don't think we will have a good sense of how it plays out for another 3-4 years.

33. By: rjfrik on 02-21-2012 16:40:56
And thank god we aren't the Angels. They have 1.6 million dollars to spend in ten rounds. Are you kidding me? Laughable.

34. By: slamcactus on 02-21-2012 17:40:42
Jg: how about C) the kid wants to have the college experience and teams no longer have the financial flexibility to buy them out of their commitments? The ms didn't do a huge amount of this before, but teams like pittsburgh and Kansas city sure did, and it takes another option off the table. Draft bonuses will go down across the boards with this rule, but it will also result in a lot of guys passing up the minors in favor of college. I'm not sure that's a bad thing overall, though you hate to hamstring teams like this in what used to be the single biggest driver of parity in the game.

35. By: rjfrik on 02-22-2012 13:59:08
Exactly Slam. Kids won't get million dollar bonuses anymore to pass college, they will get maybe $200k. You would think a lot of kids will take the college route and think "I can go to school for free and then get drafted again and maybe get more then 200k, but I should still get around 200k when I leave college even if I don't improve my stock."

This is why I think the draft is going to pretty weak for the next three years or so as a lot of kids go to school. It's going to take a few years for everything to even out.

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