|By Jason A. Churchill||By 02-18-2012|
- Chris Crawford
- Jason A. Churchill
- Chris Crawford
- Jason A. Churchill
- Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford
|Pre-season Top 25|
|2||Lucas Giolito||RHP||Harvard-Westlake HS|
|3||Byron Buxton||OF||Appling County HS|
|5||Max Fried||LHP||Harvard Westlake HS|
|6||Deven Marrero||SS||Arizona State|
|7||Christopher Beck||RHP||Georgia Southern|
|8||Kevin Gausman||RHP||LSU||9||Victor Roache||OF||Georgia Southern|
|10||Walker Weickel||RHP||Olympia HS|
|11||Stryker Trahan||C||Acadania HS|
|12||Matthew Smoral||LHP||Solon HS|
|13||David Dahl||OF||Oak Mountain HS|
|14||Gavin Cecchini||SS||Garbe HS|
|15||Albert Almora||OF||Mater Academy|
|17||Joey Gallo||1B/3B||Bishop-Gorman HS|
|18||Lance Mccullers||RHP||Jesuit HS|
|20||Michael Wacha||RHP||Texas A&M|
|21||Trey Williams||3B||Valencia HS|
|23||Carlos Correa||SS||P.R. Baseball Academy|
|24||Kyle Zimmer||RHP||San Francisco|
|25||Lucas Sims||RHP||Brookwood HS|
|1. By: short on 02-18-2012 01:08:39|
The Mariners last year effectively turned the pick of Danny Hultzen into Jose Montero, because they could afford to trade Pineda. I love the analysis of the draft but the relationship between the particular person drafted and how it helps the team in the final analysis is sometimes impossible to predict. Buxton sounds exciting, but if Jack is confident in a different player I can't imagine a reason to doubt him at this point.
|2. By: Edman on 02-18-2012 02:16:27|
A lot of GMs talk about taking the best player available. Many do, some don't. Jack does, by all appearances.
I read someone complaining that Jack is a "pitcher first" guy in the draft. What? Didn't he draft Fielder and Braun?
I've heard him say it several times. You take the best player available. You never know what you're going to need in a couple of years. So, you take the best player. You can't go wrong, if you scout and draft well, with those guidelines.
|3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 02:29:09|
It's the best SIGNABLE player available, and the vast majority of clubs do it, if not all. The issue is, and here is where the discrepancy in BPA comes from, is that every club's "signability" charts are very different.
Bundy and Starling weren't signable for Seattle in 2011. Lindor and Bauer weren't deemed as signable for KC and Washington.
|4. By: rotoenquire on 02-18-2012 10:21:53|
@3 I think that gets missed a lot by fans in general they think in Basketball or football terms.
I like the article granted this is a bit a ways. But most scouting has been going on for awhile on these guys and the National Consensus is there are a top 1-10 that will not have there value change a whole lot.
|5. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-18-2012 11:33:23|
I'd be cool if we signed anybody in that top 8 excluding Beck. I want Jack to take the BPA. I think most of us do, but I also want to make sure that dude signs. Starling would've been awesome but from what I heard he probably wouldn't have come here. From what I've read Buxton sounds like my favorite, but if we don't think we can sign him then go out and get the next best player who will.
|6. By: DUWORKSON on 02-18-2012 12:25:14|
Jason, talking about prospects I don't know why the M's aren't more aggressively pursuing Jorge Soler? Scouts say that he's a younger version of Mike Stanton. I understand its gonna be expenive to sign the kid. Correct if I'm wrong but doesn't the organization have a seperate budget for international players. It's not like the kid would affect the MLB payroll.
|7. By: rjfrik on 02-18-2012 13:32:48|
As I said a couple of threads ago, I will be happy with any of Giolito, Zunino, Buxton and one of those three has to be there at #3, so for that I'm happy. I really only think there are 3 to 4 guys in this draft that will make a big impact and I'm glad the M's have a top 3 pick.
|8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 15:10:01|
The players values DO change. They WILL change. The real question is, will those changes be enough to change where they go in the draft? How does signability come into play? Are there enough prospects outside the consensus top 10 or so that make enough progress to bump someone out? Injuries? Adviser impact...
None of those things are known today, but will be in a matter of a few months. So it WILL change. Always does.
|9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 15:13:37|
We don't know for sure that they aren't in on Soler. The A's were mentioned once for Cespedes and signed him.
And Soler isn't Stanton, he's just got mass upside. May get $25 million.
And no, not a separate budget. That was all a lie. There are different ways to ledger things up for luxury tax purposes, but the M's don't need to worry about that. If they want Soler, they can afford him, period. Not sure he's worth a $25 mil investment, though. So much unknown, including age.
|10. By: DUWORKSON on 02-18-2012 17:03:17|
Jason, thanks for clarifying the budget. And, yes I don't know if the team is really pursuing Soler HARD. I agree that $25-30 mil. investment is steep for a 19yrs. old prospect. But like every scout and including you the upside is huge. Signing Soler would fit in JZ's youth-movement nicely. With the team two years away from truely contending. It would allow Soler to develop in the system for two until he gets promoted. By then hopefully the team is contending for a playoff spot. It's a huge gamble but the team is also gambling on Ackley, Montero, Smoak, Carp and the rest of the youths. I would rather gamble that money on Soler than trading another Michael Pineda type pitcher. And, if everything works out that investment is priceless.
|11. By: Plowshare on 02-18-2012 17:50:17|
Enjoyed the article except for the comment that Fried is more polished than Giolito. I've seen them both and this isn't the case at all. Giolito is by far the best prep pitcher in the class, IMHO. It comes down to whether a team wants a righty power pitcher with two plus offspeed pitches or a lefty with serious upside and a nasty curve. Giolito is already 6'6" and 240lbs. Fried 6'4" 180. Both will add 20-25 pounds as pros. Who goes first is anyone's guess.
|12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 19:53:58|
Fried, in the opinion of a good number of scouts judging from offseason and now early-season performances and showings, is throwing more consistent strikes with his entire arsenal, including a changeup that buries any change Giolito has ever thrown in his life.
I spoke to one crosschecker tonight that says Fried is clearly the more polished of the two, though he comes with a little less upside because Giolito has at least a shot to be an ace with mid-90s heat and a power breaking ball.
Anyone that says Giolito has a plus changeup right now doesn't what they are talking about.
Being more polished doesn't mean BETTER, either. If the draft were today, more teams would likely take Giolito before Fried based on upside. I would, at least right now.
Sorry you feel Giolito is as or more polished a pitcher in comparison to Fried, but it's just not true in any manner.
|13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2012 22:01:43|
$25 mil is more than what the team guaranteed a polished Ackley and Hultzen, Walker, Franklin and Paxton, Victor Sanchez, Phillips Castillo, Pimentel, Miller, Capps and Littlewood... COMBINED.
Upside isn't the end-all in talent evaluation, the risk involved is a big part of it all. And I don't KNOW that it will take 25 mil, but some think the White Sox could try and blow out the top offer and if that happens it at least gets into the 20s, if not higher.
For a kid NOBODY knows all that much about off the field, that's too big a risk to just simply expect the Mariners to pony up.
Kid could be 22 for all we know.
|14. By: dewey on 02-18-2012 22:41:43|
All the hype behind these Cubans is making me sick my questuin is Jason is Soler 3x better then Bryce Harper? I will say my thoughts very clear NOT A FUCKING CHANCE...But teams keeping paying the hype hell Cespedes got paid like a ARB 3 guy after nothing its wrong.
|15. By: short on 02-18-2012 23:54:50|
Can't believe I called him "Jose" Montero. I think you go to hell for that, right?
|16. By: DUWORKSON on 02-19-2012 01:24:26|
Yes, I agree it's a huge risk to shell-out $25 mil to Soler a Cuban prospect. You make a very good and convincing argument with those eleven players combined money and cuban's track record of lying about their age. As a baseball junky its always nice to bounce ideas off with other baseball junkies. Please don't think that I'm trying to argue with you for the sake of arguing. I just think it's a caculated risk for several reasons. First reason top FA hitters are difficult to sign. If they do sign JZ has to overpay for the slugger just like the Prince Fielder scenario. Then the team is strap with a bad contract for the next decade. I actually thought it was very smart that JZ didn't sign Fielder. However, a player like Soler is essentially like having an extra first round top five pick in the amatuer draft. Second reason for every year that this team finishes as one of the worst team in the league less revenue it brings in. By signing Soler it speed up the process faster. You already read the third reason why. Trading a prospect like Pineda for Montero is a huge risk as well and it just opens up another hole the team needs to fix. Now I'm not advocating that JZ sign every international hype player that comes around just the ones that makes sense that can speed up the process.
|17. By: Ungnome on 02-19-2012 09:53:42|
What do we actually know about Jorge Soler?
|18. By: zrininger on 02-19-2012 13:58:09|
Dewey, I don't think anyone thinks that soler is worth 3x as much as harper. The difference is that Harper was not on the open market if he were to be, teams would probably pay 3x what they would for soler. The other thing that has not been brought up is that with the new cba international signings will be capped so teams are probably a little more willing to spend more knowing that they won't be able to send as much in the coming years.
|19. By: Lailoken on 02-19-2012 14:05:02|
JAC's take on Soler is pretty spot on IMO. Armando Rivera & Helsin Martinez are better risks.
Rivera is a reliever which will limit his cost & so long as his age is not more than a couple years off he's a solid candidate for the back end of a bullpen.
There are reasons behind Martinez's long delay in signing with a MLB team since July 2nd. Those reasons though are likely known to big league front offices & international scouting departments. Those issues have also likely driven his price down. Cheaper & known issues while still talented equates to a much better risk than Soler IMO.
|20. By: Edman on 02-19-2012 20:09:04|
DUWORKSON, and throwing away $25 million if Solar isn't as good as his hype, isn't a risk either? Did you scout Solar? Do you know anymore about him, other than the hype? Supposedly great Cuban players, don't have a great track record when it comes to risk-reward. Yet they're paid more than most International prospects? Why, because they play in a "professional" league?
The hole that trading Pineda makes, has many candidates for replacement. Seattle doesn't have a hitting prospect that compares to Montero. And, if he has a chance of developing and remaining at catcher, that's even better.
When the Cuban players start to prove that they're good enough to demand Major League money, then I'll be convinced. But to simply say that $25 million is a calculated risk, means also accepting that Jack and company have done the math, no matter what Seattle does. Being desperate is a Bavasi move.
|21. By: slamcactus on 02-19-2012 20:31:13|
"All the hype behind these Cubans is making me sick my questuin is Jason is Soler 3x better then Bryce Harper? I will say my thoughts very clear NOT A FUCKING CHANCE"
Could not be more apples and oranges a comparison. There's a big difference between free agency and monopoly. Cuban FAs get more because teams can bid against each other. Historically, they've gotten a pretty good deal. There's a big difference between that and a system where only one team can make an offer and there's no path to free agency.
|22. By: rotoenquire on 02-19-2012 21:05:03|
I said there won't be a whole lot of change(Not NO change). moving up and down a few slots is not dramatic. And one or two may drop out of the top 10 but will most likely barring DRAMATIC injury stay in the 1st round.
All this is based of conjecture in terms of scouting. Billy Bean was supposed to a 5 tool ones in a lifetime player. So were tens of hundreds of others.
For every scout that thinks one thing there is another that thinks something different. The best thing anyone can do is look at all the sites gather all the info and then look at the video clips and stats yourself and come up with what you think as a fan. Which is what some here do. Other just re-sight what others post and say trusting in the one or two places they find info.
Giolito from most sites and video I have seen looks to have a solid fast ball and good to above average breaking ball and his command maybe his strongest aspect.
Appel has 3 upper pitches fastball, Slider and Circle Change. He is more a ground ball pitcher right now then a strike out guy. Also as I stated before on another article his Whip total does concern me a lot.
Fried I have not had a chance to really read on or look at video. Maybe I will check him out after reading a lot of what is going on here..
|23. By: greentunic on 02-20-2012 09:23:36|
You said this is "again a below-average" class of draftees. This implies that 2011 was below average as well (unless you were just saying for a second time this class was below average?).
I remember reading a lot last year about how strong that class was and many top-prospect lists this year mention there is a larger number than usual of newly-drafted players. So I'm wondering where my confusion can be remedied.
-Were you not saying last year's class was below-average and I misunderstood?
-Were those who said last year's class was really good simply wrong?
-Was last year's first round great and the rest not so great?
I'd really like to know! Thanks.
|24. By: greentunic on 02-20-2012 09:24:38|
Oh.. you said "as was last years"! So take out my first hypothesis. I'd still like to know!
|25. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-20-2012 15:22:51|
The only thing I know about the Mariners selection is: after being initially dismayed (and vocal about it!) by ALL of the likes of Nick Franklin, Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen, I'm gonna keep my yap shut this year and just trust in Zduriencik and his methodologies.
Steve Baron is pretty much the only draft pick in the last three draft classes that still makes me cringe/howl. I still hate that selection with every piece of my Mariner fandom.
But it must be said that most of the time when I've complained/offered up objections, I've been proven dead wrong.
If it were up to me and my druthers this year, the pick would be either Buxton or Zunino. But whoever Jack takes, I'm gonna trust it's the best long-term and signable choice out there.
The Ghost of Jeff Clement Selections looms large, though. I am fervently hoping that Zduriencik just. Doesn't. Screw Up. With Pick #3.
We're better off than where we were as an org, but a wrong selection would still hurt like hell.
|26. By: rjfrik on 02-20-2012 22:45:35|
We cannot afford to blow this pick or any pick in the top 5. No MLB team can really. But the M's, to me, can't afford to blow top picks more then most because we have a tough time getting a FA to come here.
With the way the front office blew their top picks for a decade the M's just can't afford to blow one of their top selections during this rebuild. This pick and next years pick will be crucial because after that I doubt the M's will have a top ten pick for a long long time.
In my opinion this is a year the M's can afford to grab a H.S. player and let him develop.
|27. By: valencia on 02-21-2012 00:14:14|
You can't blow a top draft pick. That's why Hultzen over Rendon made so much sense to me - Rendon might have more upside, but it just wasn't worth the risk with all the red flags Rendon had.
HS is always riskier, but the upside is always greater. And the college crop this year doesn't look great, so the risk might seem justified this time. Who knows, maybe it'll be like 2010's draft with 3 HS kids going 1-2-3.
|28. By: jgstecker on 02-21-2012 08:13:53|
The new draft rules may help Seattle a little this year. With the new "slotting" budgets, it makes pretty much any top pick singable.
The only reasons for a player not to sign now are:
A. He thinks he can be drafted higher in a later draft
B. He has a better opportunity than playing major league baseball - as in the case of Bubba Starling last year.
Anyone who's drafted #3 overall is a fool if they think they can get more than slot. And it would be an absurd risk to refuse to sign in the hopes of going 1st or 2nd in the next draft.
We should see true BPAs taken this year, at least in the early part of Round 1.
|29. By: rjfrik on 02-21-2012 14:08:30|
Very true jg. Good point. I still don't like the new rules at all because it really limits you in rounds 2-10. No more signing guys like Paxton in a later round with a big bonus, which sucks. The M's are a team that unfortunately has to build through the draft and IFA. Those have really been curbed with the new CBA.
But it might force players to lower their demands. We shall see.
On another note: Anyone else excited about Ichiro being our #3 hitter? I like it. I think he has a big year.
|30. By: Edman on 02-21-2012 14:35:18|
rjfrik, that's absolutely not true. The M's can still pick a Paxton in later rounds. They just can't pick several of them, like the Tigers did a couple years ago. The M's have about $11 million to spend on their first 11 picks, according to this article by Jim Callis.
There are some teams with half that amount to spend.
All drafts consider signability.
|31. By: Chris Crawford on 02-21-2012 14:55:18|
Could be wrong Ed, but I believe that figure is how much the Mariners spent last year. The Mariners have a little over $8 million to spend for 2012.
|32. By: rjfrik on 02-21-2012 16:38:31|
This absolutely hamstrings you Ed. As Chris said, the M's have about 8 million to spend. Last year with roughly the exact same pick #2 vs #3 the M's spent about 10 million on their top ten. We are talking about roughly 2 million dollars they will not be able to spend and remember we didn't sign Cron last year in the third and we offered him a million dollars according to most estimates. So that disparity would of only been higher, roughly 3 million dollars if we had signed Cron. That's big and it absolutely limits you in later rounds. No more chasing guys who fall due to signage issues, ala Paxton or Bell (Whom the Pirates nabbed last year outside the first)
You either blow your wad at the top by signing one or maybe two impact players and then sign guys you know will sign for nothing by reaching for talent or you sign a bunch of guys you know will sign for slot in every round.
My only hope is that it makes the demands go down my the agents. I think this will make a lot of kids either go to college or return to college and limit the draft pool talent for about three or four years until we kids have to leave their schools for the draft due to graduation.
Personally I think Selig screwed up on this one. But we will see how it plays out. I don't think we will have a good sense of how it plays out for another 3-4 years.
|33. By: rjfrik on 02-21-2012 16:40:56|
And thank god we aren't the Angels. They have 1.6 million dollars to spend in ten rounds. Are you kidding me? Laughable.
|34. By: slamcactus on 02-21-2012 17:40:42|
Jg: how about C) the kid wants to have the college experience and teams no longer have the financial flexibility to buy them out of their commitments? The ms didn't do a huge amount of this before, but teams like pittsburgh and Kansas city sure did, and it takes another option off the table. Draft bonuses will go down across the boards with this rule, but it will also result in a lot of guys passing up the minors in favor of college. I'm not sure that's a bad thing overall, though you hate to hamstring teams like this in what used to be the single biggest driver of parity in the game.
|35. By: rjfrik on 02-22-2012 13:59:08|
Exactly Slam. Kids won't get million dollar bonuses anymore to pass college, they will get maybe $200k. You would think a lot of kids will take the college route and think "I can go to school for free and then get drafted again and maybe get more then 200k, but I should still get around 200k when I leave college even if I don't improve my stock."
This is why I think the draft is going to pretty weak for the next three years or so as a lot of kids go to school. It's going to take a few years for everything to even out.
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