| By Chris Crawford |  | By 12-22-2011 |
With less than ten days left in the calendar year, we're starting to see rosters take shape, and while the off-season is nowhere close to being done, we have reached a point where we can see who the winners and losers of the winter have been.
In the AL West -- unless you root for a certain team in Orange County, this offseason has been one more of pomp than circumstance. There have been rumors galore, but outside of that fateful last day of the Winter Meetings, there just hasn’t been much in terms of concrete movement. Again, there’s a lifetime left until pitchers and catchers report in Arizona, but as things stand, only one club can be declared "significantly improved" right now.
Here's a look at what the four teams in the division have done, with their 2011 WAR. Keep in mind that non-consequential free-agents -- players with less than fifty at-bats or innings pitched -- have not been added to the list, with Joe Nathan being an exception to said rule. Also, any unsigned player is considered to have “left” the club, and is counted in the loss column.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Coming in: Albert Pujols (5.1), C.J. Wilson (5.9), Chris Ianetta (3.3), LaTroy Hawkins (0.7) 15 WAR total
Leaving: Fernando Rodney (-0.8), Joel Piniero (1.8), Jeff Mathis (-1.0), Tyler Chatwood (0.5) 0.5 WAR total
Plain and simply, this is a complete doppelganger of their last two off-seasons. You can question the amount of money and years that they spent on Pujols and Wilson – and you should – but you cannot deny that they’ve improved more than any team in the American League. My biggest question mark with the Angels is the bullpen, though Hawkins is a serviceable 6th-7th inning reliever. These moves may be lamented in 2015, but as of today, they look like a playoff team – with a scary 1-3 come October.
Oakland Athletics
Coming in: Crickets
Leaving: Trevor Cahill (2.5), Gio Gonzalez (3.5), Coco Crisp (2.2), Josh Willingham (2.1), David DeJesus (2.1), Hideki Matsui (0.3) – 12.7 WAR total
It could be just me, but it doesn’t seem like it’d be fun to be an Oakland A’s fan. Yes, the return for Gonzalez is impressive, but they didn’t get enough for Cahill, and they still have one of the worst offenses in the league, if not all of baseball. On paper, this is one of the worst teams in the game, non AL-Central edition.
Texas Rangers
Coming in: Joe Nathan (0.0), Luis Hernandez (0.1),Yu Darvish (?) – 0.1 Total
Leaving: Wilson (5.9), Endy Chavez (1.5) -- 7.4 Total
The Nathan signing allows Neftali Feliz to join the rotation, but counting on either to contribute in their current roles is a stretch. We really don’t know how Darvish will handle the transition, but if he pitches anything like he did in Japan, the Rangers more than offset the loss of Wilson, albeit it at a considerably higher cost. Whether or not they are truly interested in Prince Fielder remains to be seen, but expect Texas to add some sort of DH/1B at some point in the offseason. They may have been usurped by the Angels, but this is still the second best ball-club in the division, right now.
Seattle Mariners
Coming in: John Jaso (0.5), George Sherrill (0.5) – 1.0 Total
Leaving: Adam Kennedy (0.1), Josh Lueke (0.3) – 0.4 Total
Nothing sexy so far, but Jaso and Sherrill do make the Mariners a better club in 2012. If the Mariners are able to land Fielder, this will be the second best off-season of anyone in the American League West. Without him – or some sort of major offensive addition – and Seattle fans might as well set their alarms for April 1st, 2013. With that being said, the M’s are a long way away from done, and I expect when all is said and done that they’ll be a much better team – on paper – in 2012.
2012-al-west-roster-movement:-volume-i
Comments
The following 19 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: jazon_24 on 12-22-2011 17:23:53 I don't get the two Joel Piniero totals. Does this reflect a first half of the year versus second half of the year scenario? |
| 2. By: titans12 on 12-22-2011 17:24:02 Beltran just signed with the Cards. Fielder or Cespedes seem to be all that's left out there for offense. Funny but when free agency started those were the two I thought would help us the most. By the way the worst offense is right here in Seattle. |
| 3. By: Chris Crawford on 12-22-2011 17:47:39 My bad, the drugs got to me, that -0.8 should be Fernando Rodney. |
| 4. By: maqman on 12-23-2011 11:34:41 LAA of A, despite their WAR purchases, are on a downhill trend with too many aging players and a lot of albatross contracts in their future. The M's are going the other way, they have grown some present and future WAR without the risk of bagging an albatross if they don't sign Fielder. The M's are not the equal of the two AL West big spenders now but they are trending in the right direction. IMO |
| 5. By: SeattleSlew on 12-23-2011 13:28:23 I agree that the Mariners are not done. They have lots of important decisions to make, some of them impacting their ability to keep Felix in the future. A few off-the-wall suggestions; 1.) Share some of what is below with Fielder to convince him that the team will be competitive (albeit not post-season material) immediately: and sign Fielder. 2.) Sign a #4/5 veteran pitcher (Joe Saunders would probably not break the bank and be a respectable back end.) 3.) Sign League to a 3 year contract ASAP. He will be a free agent after 2012 and he probably realizes he will not register as a top closer candidate due to his lower K rate etc. Perhaps 3 years for $17-$18mm. This will also provide some security for Felix, knowing that he doesn't have to go 9 innings every game! 4.) Trade for Seth Smith and use a Smith/Wells platoon in left for 20-25 HR. Maybe eat almost all of Figgins and throw a lower level SP at Colorado. They still don't have a 3B till Arenado 5.) Ask Smoak (great work ethic!) to start taking some balls at 3B. I still believe he will be a good bat and he has great hands, footwork and instincts at 1B and Baseball America's early writeups indicated that if he weren't LH in the field he could profile as a middle infielder. My guess is he will do better at 3B than Figgins did at 2B due to footwork issues he may do better at. If not, it was worth a try. 6.) If he is serviceable there you wind up with a 2012 lineup: 1B Fielder 2B Ackley SS Ryan 3B Smoak? LF Smith/Wells CF Guti (given a shot to recover) RF Ichiro DH Carp/ C Olivo/Jaso 7.) Send Trayvon down to work on plate patience and baserunning. 8.) See how Hueltzen, Paxton, Walker, Erasmo and Robles develop. 9.) Take the "Ichiro issue" by the horns and negotiate an extension right now. He is due $17mm in 2012 (of which $5mm is deferred till he retires and gets paid out as an annuity, as was the case with his other 4 years also). The team and he will both want him to be here for his 3000th ML hit. This will take 3 years beyond this coming season, so a 4 year contract for $40mm saves Ichiro some face, but realistically pays him $23mm for 3 years after 2012!! Do it NOW 10.) After 2012 trade a surplus of good, young SP under control for low $$ for good, young offense under control for low $$ (especially a catcher....Sanchez or Romine??) etc. |
| 6. By: SeattleSlew on 12-23-2011 13:43:55 Correction on above...Smoak can only throw LH so ng on 3B Then they would need to work out Smoak and Fielder playing 1B and DH and Carp becomes surplus?? |
| 7. By: Jackson on 12-23-2011 16:25:44 If the Mariners signed Fielder, they shouldn't be wasting an additional $20M~ a year on the likes of Saunders, League and Ichiro. No way do you even talk extension with Ichiro until late in the season to see if he bounces back. |
| 8. By: valencia on 12-23-2011 17:22:33 At least we won't be 4th place again. I mean look at the A's... |
| 9. By: Missthosepilots on 12-23-2011 18:15:11 Take Colorado out of the dump for Figgins. They signed Casey Blake from Dodgers. |
| 10. By: ripperlv on 12-23-2011 22:46:55 9.) Take the "Ichiro issue" by the horns and negotiate an extension right now. He is due $17mm in 2012 (of which $5mm is deferred till he retires and gets paid out as an annuity, as was the case with his other 4 years also). The team and he will both want him to be here for his 3000th ML hit. This will take 3 years beyond this coming season, so a 4 year contract for $40mm saves Ichiro some face, but realistically pays him $23mm for 3 years after 2012!! Do it NOW How on earth do you figure that Ichiro is worth 40 million dollars?? He's a bad contract now, and the M's should throw him away if they could, but they can't, darn it. 2.) Sign a #4/5 veteran pitcher (Joe Saunders would probably not break the bank and be a respectable back end.) Don't we already have enough of them?? 10.) After 2012 trade a surplus of good, young SP under control for low $$ for good, young offense under control for low $$ (especially a catcher....Sanchez or Romine??) etc. Your killing me. 8.) See how Hueltzen, Paxton, Walker, Erasmo and Robles develop. That is sure to convince Fielder to sign. Isn't that what your post is about?? |
| 11. By: SeattleSlew on 12-23-2011 23:49:17 You may not have read the Ichiro part carefully; he is NOT worth $40mm...but given that both the Mariners and Ichiro will see this to hit 3000 (no matter what you or I say)...since he is owed $17million for 2012...if you create a new contract NOW which includes 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (long enough for him to reach 3000) for $40mm, effectively you are giving him $23million for three years...but he can save face by pointing to $40 for 4 (without emphasizing that $17 was already guaranteed!). I think Saunders is a step up from Furbush or Beaven. The Mariners may be able to match other offers for Fielder (and have an advantage vs. NL teams since they have the flexibility of DH for him if he begins to deteriorate as a 1B) but the isolation of the geography and the competitiveness of the team will be key issues for him, so some or all of what I had proposed are components of improving the team immediately as well as not dismantling the "futures" program Jack Z has put into place. Sort of a difficult balancing act without breaking the bank either. |
| 12. By: rightwingrick on 12-24-2011 08:48:03 I'm not sure why so many people act as if Beavan is a "marginal" starter. He was Baseball America's 2006 Youth Player of the Year, was a first round pick of the Rangersin 2007 (17th overall), has shown the ability to hit 95-96 mph in the past, is 6'7" and 250, he throws strikes, and pitched in the majors at only 22...and did pretty darn well for the first time up. |
| 13. By: ripperlv on 12-24-2011 09:29:40 12. I'm not sure why so many people act as if Beavan is a "marginal" starter. I'm not sure why you get that impression unless you consider marginal with the back end of the rotation. I would call him a back of the rotation guy. What he's done in the past is a bit deceiving because he doesn't throw mid-90's, like he did in high school. According to JC: Beavan offers a four-seam fastball in the 88-92 mph range, rarely topping 92, that he throws for strikes but doesn't always command well. He is a bit like Doug Fister but Fister makes more pitches and has better command within the zone. He had an xFIP of 4.45 in 97 innings which is #5 type stat. Felix 3.15 Fister 3.61 Pineda 3.53 Saunders 4.38 Of course it's small sample and xFIP doesn't tell all, but it's an example of why Beavan is considered end of rotation without much upside. Not that I'm any kind of expert, but I would guess his upside would be a Fister type of pitcher. |
| 14. By: rightwingrick on 12-24-2011 11:37:51 I understand all of the current stats, but it seems to me that anyone who's as big as Beavan is, and as young as he is (pitching at 23 next year), and who's shown past ability to hit 95-96, and who throws strikes (but has to work on command in the strike zone)m is projectable as a #3 or maybe #2 guy in a couple of years. I'm not arguing he's better than an end-of-the-rotation guy at present; but looking into the future a couple of years, he could be a #3 guy pitching in a #5 spot with the M's with guys like Felix, Paxton, Pineda, and Hultzen ahead of him. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-24-2011 14:49:39 FTR, Beavan hasn't seen 94+ on the heater on any sort regular basis since he was a prep. So that means ZERO. He's an 88-92 guy with the FB, mostly 89-91. |
| 16. By: short on 12-26-2011 12:23:41 Speaking of Ichiro I'm surprised at the lack of buzz around his contract situation. Is the team ready to enter 2012 with Ichiro on the last year of his deal? Is Ichiro satisified with this situation? |
| 17. By: Mackie on 12-26-2011 13:22:39 In answer to both questions, I can say I hope so. Ichiro has been great for the franchise, and he is one of my all-time favorite Mariners. But like with all good players, there comes a time when age catches up with skills. I don't want to see them extend his contract until they can determine for sure whether he still has something left in the tank, i.e. maybe they would negotiate with him or not during the regular season. |
| 18. By: Timberwolf on 12-26-2011 14:09:49 Loyalty is a two way street and casting Ichiro aside like an old sock is not the right thing to do. Signing him to a long term contract coming off a terrible season which could well indicate that he really is over the hill is a big mistake. They need to see what he has left and give him an appropriate one or two year offer. Somewhere in Japan there is a 15 year old baseball player with a high ceiling who dreams of being a Seattle Mariner. We don't want to alienate him. |
| 19. By: Jackson on 12-26-2011 16:15:17 Even if there was such a kid, he couldn't become a Seattle Mariner by choice until 30 or so. |
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