Prospect Insider - 2011 Draft Preview

2011 Draft Preview

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-24-2011

The 2011 Draft is filled with talent, questions, and even fewer answers than a year ago despite being the deepest class in at least three years, and probably the best since 2005. But this class is like no other it more than one way, starting with the rules changes made by the good 'ole NCAA.

The New Bat Regulations
Since the late 1990s the NCAA has been looking for a way to temper the impact of the aluminum bat in college baseball, going as far as limiting the weight-length differential and the size of the sweet spot.

The changes didn't work, largely due to the reason why the aluminum bat produces what coaches have often referred to as the "trampoline effect" is because aluminum compresses when it meets the ball, serving as a springboard. The offensive output wasn't just because the players were swinging lighter bats much quicker.

So this winter, a new testing system was put in place called the BBCOR, which stands for "ball-bat coefficient of restitution." The new system gives values to what happens to the ball and bat when the two meet. These measurements were taken into strong consideration when the new bats were regulated and then manufactured.

Now, bats that pass the NCAA qualifications test have minimal trampoline effect and are expected to perform just above the standard for the best wood bats, partly to ensure that the use of wood bats remains legal.

Translation: The new aluminum bats will play much like that of the wood bats used in pro ball.

We could argue all day about why the changes were made -- and most coaches don't like it -- but when it comes to the draft, it's a good thing. It's good for clubs whose scouts will now get a more legitimate look at both hitters and pitchers, and it's good for the players, who now can be judged on performance more safely.

Hitters that show power and the ability to get around on good velocity will be scouted as if they were a minor leaguer, because, hey, it's not because of the bat. Pitchers will be able to come inside, which means they will use their fastballs more, allowing scouts to get a better idea of how well he locates the heat, and it will also help save the college arm from throwing 50-plus breaking ball per start.
The college game will become more about small ball; bunting, running, pitching and defense will be a focus, very much like that of the pro game at all levels.

Statistically, if a hitter shows power in a good D1 conference, it's probably legit power, though some of the ballparks are a joke. With the previous bats, the scouting eye would have to lean on bat speed, wrists strength and quickness -- raw skills shown in batting practice. Now the game itself matters more when scouting.

I say it also helps when grading the range of a fielder, infield or outfield, as the ball comes off the new bat in a much truer manner, and catchers now have to think more like a big league backstop because pitching inside is now OK and the running game will become much more of a weapon.

In the end, it's not likely we see a lot of 20-homer stat columns this season, as head coaches around the country have reported several full rounds of batting practice often pass without one single long ball being hit. Even big-time D1 schools in the SEC, ACC and Pac-10.

One other positive from my perspective: No more "ping!" It sounds more like a "thud" to me. Wish there was a clean, crisp "crack!" like the natural wood bats, but a thud sound is better than the noise of a swing chain hitting its support on the playground.

The Top Prospects
By now everyone knows that the top few prospects include Rice 3B Anthony Rendon, UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole, Connecticut OF George Springer and two-way Kansas prepster Bubba Starling. You can check out ESPN's Pre-season Top 50 here.

But there are dozens of worthy prospects to care about, follow and wish upon, including Vanderbilt RHP Sonny Gray, whose only real knock is lack of ideal size at 6-feet and 180 pounds. He does have terrific stuff, however, maybe the best stuff in the draft.

Sonny Gray, RHP -- Vanderbilt
Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	H	HR	SO	BB
2010	19/16	108.2	3.48	92	4	113	48

Matt Purke, a left-hander out of TCU, offers plus velocity that reaches 94 mph, but he doesn't always sit there and there are concerns about his lack of size (184 pounds) and his low arm slot. The low slot can make it very difficult to repeat a good release point, and can particularly impact his fastball command, turning over a consistent breaking ball and staying on top of his changeup.

Matt Purke, LHP -- TCU
Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	H	HR	SO	BB
2010	20/18	116.1	3.48	91	6	142	34

Connecticut RHP Matt Barnes has a chance to go in the top 5 and may be a lock for the top 15, at least based on talent. He stands 6-foot-4, weighs just over 200 pounds, and brings a low-to-mid 90s fastball to the mound, touching 95-96 with regularity. His curveball is has flashed as a potential plus pitch and his changeup shows enough promise to be considered a legitimate future offering.

Matt Barnes, RHP -- UCONN
Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	H	HR	SO	BB
2010	15/13	82.2	3.92	79	6	75	25

Springer may have the most raw power among any bat in the class -- even more than Rendon -- and he runs and throws well and has a the right idea with his patience and willingness to work the count and take walks. Keith Law wrote recently that Springer's two-strike approach needs some work, which jives with his relatively high strikeout totals.

George Springer, OF -- UCONN
Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SO	SB
2010	.337	.491	.668	18	60	70	33

The questions surrounding Rendon include a second significant injuy to an ankle; he'll have to prove to clubs that he's not injury prone and that the ankles aren't going to affect his lateral range and footwork. Plus bat speed, plus defense and an advanced approach all suggest Rendon, based on talent, is the top candidate to go No. 1 overall.
Of course, his asking price may have something to do with it all, and he's a client of the Scott Boras Corporation, which always makes things interesting.

Anthony Rendon, 3B -- Rice
Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SO	SB
2010	.394	.539	.801	26	65	22	14

South Carolina's Jackie Bradley, Jr. is one of my favorite prospects in the class. He's a plus runner with above-average power, a solid approach and is the lone college centerfielder graded high enough for the first round. He can get excited about the long ball at times and tries to pull everything -- since that is where most of his power lies -- but he's a lefty stick with above-average tools across the board with the exception of an average throwing arm.

Jackie Bradley, Jr, OF -- South Carolina
Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SO	SB
2010	.368	.473	.587	13	41	37	7

Starling (pictured at right) is a prospect as a pitcher and hitter, and one scouting coordinator I spoke to recently called him "somewhat like (Mike) Trout, but bigger, more projectable, probably a better arm." That's saying something, but it's just a comparison of physical tools at this point. Starling might be a better prospect as a bat and centerfielder, and if he hints he'll sign, he could go in the top few picks.

Class Strength
The lone area that lacks true depth is the class of college bats, much like that of the past two drafts, but Rendon and Springer make it top heavy and Bradley, Jr., is far from chopped liver. Miami-Dade College's Brian Goodwin, formerly of North Carolina, Jason Esposito at Vanderbilt, Indiana's Alex Dickerson, and UNC's Levi Michael could also be first-round picks, as could Mikie Mahtook at LSU.

But the strength is in the pitching, and particularly the class of college arms has the potential to be quite special. After Cole, Gray, Purke and Barnes, the drop-off isn't significant down to Georgia Tech left-hander Jed Bradley, Texas Longhorns' ace Taylor Jungmann, Virginia's Danny Hultzen and Kentucky's Alex Meyer, who has touched triple digits and showna big-time slider.

UCLA's Trevor Bauer is also a possible first-rounder, too, and three northwest-area collegiates could threaten the top 40 as well.

There's even a chance that Seattle's second-round pick is a pitcher with No. 2 upside -- and that pick is all the way down at No. 62.

Pretty ridiculous.

Another thing to think about is the chance that clubs splurge on this year's class because the chances of hard slotting will lock out clubs from doing so in the future, and there absolutely is a chance that draft-pick compensation is changed soon, too.

Signability and the Boras Effect
Boras has at least nine of the top 100 or so prospects, seven of which are likely first-round talents, including Rendon, Cole, Starling, Bradley, Zach Cone of Georgia, Kentucky's Alex Meyer and Arkanas prep right-hander Howard Dillon.

The three most interesting are Rendon, Cole and Starling, but because they might end up the top three prospects. Rendon, because he's the favorite to go No. 1, Cole because he already turned down $4 million from the New York Yankees three years ago and Starling due to his commitment to Nebraska to play quarterback, pitch and play center field.

Starling has the most leverage, much like that of Texas high schooler Zach Lee a year ago, but fully expect all of the other players to sign, and I do think ultimately Starling will, too, and here's why:

The next Collective Bargaining Agreement may insert hard slotting into the draft, which will pay first-round picks according to where they are selected, without much negotiation taking place. Gone will be the over-sized bonuses and players will no longer fall due to money. Signability, yes, but not bonus demands.

So in future drafts, players lose leverage, plain and simple. Talents will still choose school over pro ball, even first-round picks, but the ones that stand to gain are those that aren't considered top talents but could develop enough in a few years worth of college games to improve their draft stock dramatically. Starling isn't one of those, since he'd likely be taken in the top 10 or higher anyway, and be paid like a top-3 pick.

The Pirates' Dilemma
No, that's not the title of the fifth installment of the Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, it's a significant problem at the hands of the baseball organization in Pittsburgh. They have spent money in the past -- nearly $9 million to their first two picks a year ago, including RHP Jameson Taillon, the No. 2 overall selection, and in 2008 took a Boras client, Pedro Alvarez, and got him signed.

The Alvarez negotiations weren't a smooth process for them, however, and there was a time near the deadline when the Pirates thought they had an agreement in place. What actually occured is unknown, but Boras claimed the terms of the deal were changed illegally, and the team claimed that Boras backed out because he changed his mind and did not like the details of the contract.

Because of the gray area, Major League Baseball allowed them time after the signing deadline to get something done, and they did. Alvarez ultimately received $6 million.

Will the Bucs go down that road again? There are some in the industry that believe Pittsburgh will avoid Boras clients, as they have since that debacle in '08, which would leave many of the top prospects to teams that fall in behind the Pirates, including the Seattle Mariners, who signed Boras client Dustin Ackley without much problem two summers ago.

The Seattle Mariners role in the 2011 Draft
With the No. 2 overall pick, they have a chance at a star, a player that may very well have more of an impact that Ackley, and could make said impact within two years or so.

The Mariners have just the one extra pick this June -- for failing to sign third-round RHP Ryne Stanek -- which lends credence to the belief that the club will stick to selecting the best player that they believe they can get signed, all the way up and down their entire draft.

They may have a shot at Rendon, but if the Pirates pass on the best bat in the class, they may take Springer, but probably not Cole or Starling, also Boras clients.

There is one train of thought that suggests the Mariners will not seriously consider a prep player at No. 2 overall, because the front office, and therefore the scouting department, have to win sooner than later or they may not be around to see the kid in a major league uniform.

Now, whether that is the case or not is beyond me, but it's a theory, albeit one we may never know of for sure one wayor the other.

I know Seattle likes Starling, and I also know they like Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor -- but as things stand right now, I can't see them taking either player, or any other prep talent, with Cole or Springer -- or both -- still on the board.

A lot can change in three-plus months, however, so stay tuned, and visit us at the draft blog over at ESPN for frequent updates, buzz, rankings and scouting reports.

The Pacific Northwest
As is every year at ESPN, I am assigned the northwest, and I usually get some California college players, too. But this year is a deep class in the area just like it is everywhere else in the country. The top prep talent is Dylan Davis, a right-hander at Redmond High School, but the top two -- and four of the top five overall -- are college players. That hasn't happened around here in quite a while.

You can argue that Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac is the No. 1 prospect in the area, but I like Washington State's Adam Conley, who touched 97 mph in his first start of the season last weekend.

Oregon has two prospects that could on Day 1, and Gonzaga's Ryan Carpenter could pitch his way into first-round contention.

Shorewood High School's Blake Snell, a 6-foot-1 left-hander committed to the University of Washington, could move up the charts if he shows more consistent secondary stuff. He and Davis both lack the projectability of the top prep arms in the class -- Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley, due to a lack of prototypical size.

Davis' teammate, 3B Michael Conforto, an Oregon State commit, is a left-handed hitter with some power and a sturdy frame. Porter Clayton, a 1B/LHP out of Bonneville High School in Idaho, does bring a projectable frame to the mound, but he may be a better prospect at the plate.

Oregon State's Josh Osich, who may have been a top-10 pick a year ago if it weren't for elbow surgery, sat 93-97 earlier this week in a short outing, but expectedly lacked sharp mechanics and struggled to locate his pitches. He's 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, and pre-surgery offered an above-average change and slider. He could move up quickly with a healthy season and progress in the command department.

Thomas Robson, of Delta Secondary School in Ladner, British Columbia, Canada, is a right-handed pitcher that has hit the low-90s with his fastball from a three-quarter arm slot. His changeup is considered advanced and he throws a lot of strikes. The breaking ball needs work, but at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, there's a lot to like here.

Others to keep an eye on include right-handed pitchers Kevin Moriarty from Shorewood High School (Wash.), Cole Wiper (Awesome name) and Jared Fischer from Newport High School (Wash.), Sam Johnson from Westview High School (Oregon), Southridge High School (Oregon) left-hander Jace Fry, who may be the top prep player in the Beaver state, and Spencer O'Niell from Southridge High School in Kennewick, Washington.

Pacific Northwest Top 10

No.

Player, Pos.

School

Adam Conley, LHP

Washington State

Andrew Susac, C

Oregon State

Dylan Davis, RHP

Redmond HS (Wash.)

Tyler Anderson, LHP

Oregon

Ryan Carpenter, LHP

Gonzaga

Scott McGough, RHP

Oregon

Blake Snell, LHP

Shorewood HS (Wash.)

Michael Conforto, 3B

Redmond HS (Wash.)

Josh Osich, LHP

Oregon State

Porter Clayton, LHP/1B

Bonneville HS (Idaho)

2011-draft-preview

Comments
The following 29 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: acqb1424 on 02-25-2011 08:28:45
Awesome article Jason and gets me even more excited about the draft! The tidbits about the Pirates and Boras were interesting to hear, especially considering he is "advising" three of the top talents. Will be really interesting to see what happens.

2. By: marinermutt on 02-25-2011 10:34:27
Good stuff Jason. How did Rendon hurt his ankle a second time. Must of missed that. Same ankle?

Thanks,

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2011 11:34:51
Same ankle, different injury.

He tore ligaments the first time -- in the Super Regionals in 2009 -- last summer he suffered two fractures and a dislocation while in a rundown versus South Korea.

4. By: Swervnburn on 02-25-2011 12:15:12
Jason,
Why are baseball players allowed to sign with agents while still in school?

5. By: eknpdx on 02-25-2011 12:29:45
Interesting scenario you posed for the M's. I know in the chat you thought Cole could make a splash as early as 2012, could the same be said about Rendon?

BTW, I hate ankle injuries. They usually take the longest to heal, and you never heal just right. There's something also to be said about both ankles having injuries, making you ask if he has physiological issue.

Are you suggesting Jackey Bradley could hit his way into top 3 pick discussions? Or was that simply to point out he's earning a 1st round consideration?

6. By: mymrbig on 02-25-2011 13:06:36
Jason, your BB and K for Rendon are backwards. His BB/K ratio last year was 65/22 last year, not the other way around. And yes, he had more HR than K.

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2011 13:26:46
Thanks, let me fix that, big.

eknpdx,

I just like Bradley as a top-10 candidate, not much more than that. I might take him as high as five or six, depending on his showing this spring.

Swervburn,

They aren't. They have verbal agreements with "advisors" acting as legal counsel. And why shouldn't player be allowed to flat out hire agents while still in school? They are U.S. Citizens with the right to have qualified representation when negotiating a contract just like the rest of us.

The NCAA are just a bunch of Nazi bastards and light up a player, almost always Boras clients, when they feel they have enough evidence. Oliver, Paxton ...

It's bogus B.S., and the government should have stepped in and done the right thing two years ago. but, of course, they did not.

8. By: maqman on 02-25-2011 13:28:22
A lot is going to depend on who does what between now and June and whether the M's favor pitching or a great bat. I like Springer at this point if Rendon is the first pick and prefer Purke to Cole if they go for an arm.

9. By: d2ret on 02-25-2011 13:38:53
Hello Jason. I have not received my handbook yet, as a lifetime subscriber. Can you help? I'm starting to get snappy towards those closest to me.

10. By: safecochatter on 02-25-2011 13:56:30
Nazi Bastards....I Love It!!

Sometimes they make the US Senate look like choir boys..

11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2011 14:02:53
Ha... d2ret -- email me, I'll reply with the book!

maqman,

There is zero rationale for preferring Purke over Cole right now. Cole has better stuff, similar command, fewer concerns over size, durability and arm slot.

He also has a fallback in case injury or derailed development that Purke does not have -- closing.

Also, Purke is a sophomore-eligible, which means he's going to be as tough a sign as Cole, probably tougher, since he has the leverage to go back for a his junior season and probably be a top 3 pick.

12. By: eknpdx on 02-25-2011 14:09:50
JAC, your thoughts on Ricky Oropesa and is he around when the M's get their second pick?

13. By: johnfree on 02-25-2011 14:30:53
Jason,

I get to watch Texas vs Hawaii this weekend. Who are some players outside of Taylor Jungmann and Kolten Wong to watch?

14. By: CyFelix on 02-25-2011 14:38:40
From a mock I've seen, All of the NW players will be available at 62. I may have to actually watch the top 2, but both would fill system holes. Do you think both would be there at 62, or only 3-10 will be at 62? Along with that where do you expect the top 5 to be at.

15. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-25-2011 15:12:22

Eknpdx,
Good call, I've got my eyes on Oropesa, too. He and Jason Esposito are both players I'd love to get with that pick #62 (second round).

I'll defer to what Jason says on their availability, but my best guess is both are gone by pick #50. Since big-time college bats (that could help out at the big leagues soon) are the weakest part of this draft, my horse sense says that teams will "git those while the gittin' is good".

But this draft is so deep in most areas, that we should get something good for the org with that pick. Literally any player could help out, even if it's a prep arm that you have to buy out of a college commit.

16. By: Lonnie on 02-25-2011 15:15:03
Jason,

The new bats intrigue me. Following the logical (to me) chain of events, it would seem that what this change will do is open the door for more fringy pitchers who will be able to use their mediocre stuff and challenge batters more. Pitchers with real talent will naturally rise to the top, but there will be more, IMHO pitchers who in years past would have gone in later rounds showing up in the early rounds.

How does the bat change effect scouting in general? It would appear to me that there will be more need for players to be looked at more critically than in years past. Perhaps even a change to the rating scale?

Another thing that I can see happening is guys who produce with the new bat will step over "toolsy" guys with more projectability.

Lonnie

17. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-25-2011 15:15:46

To borrow from Brian Bosworth, circa 1986:

NCAA- National Communists Against Athletes.

That's probably too strong. But they're bastards, through and through.

18. By: tres_arboles on 02-25-2011 15:52:12
PI wrote: "They have verbal agreements with "advisors" acting as legal counsel. ... They are U.S. Citizens with the right to have qualified representation when negotiating a contract just like the rest of us."

Jason, I really enjoy your stuff but what you've written above is incorrect. Until his rights are aqcuired through the draft (or he becomes a free agent by going undrafted after exhausting collegiate eligibility), there's nothing to negotiate. So why would a student-athlete need an agent?

Predraft, a student-athlete can have a relationship with an agent in the "advisor" capacity you mention. Being an advisor has nothing to do with "legal counsel;" advisors provide a service preparing the potential draftee's family as they approach the athlete's transition from student-athlete to professional.

As soon as his rights are acquired or he becomes a free agent, an athlete can hire an agent to negotiate contracts and provide all the other services they do as "agents." What would be the point of allowing agency before then? Negotiating book prices for the athlete at the school co-op? Negotiating a preferrable dorm room or for better food at the student union? And how would the agent be compensated for these services? With a small piece of the athletes (already small piece in baseball) scholarship?

19. By: csiems on 02-25-2011 15:55:36
Wait, are they Nazis or Communists? They probably at least have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood... Oh. My. God. [pulls out chalkboard; starts crying] "NCAA" is practically an anagram for "ACORN"!

20. By: baseballman on 02-25-2011 16:48:20
RE 19: Hope you didnt spend too long thinking of that cuz it wasnt even remotely humorous...

Back to the topic at hand. Great stuff JAC. June cant come soon enough. Im excited either way because this team has a chance at a MOR bat or a TOR SP, either of which we need desperately.

21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2011 17:41:32
tres,

You are incorrect.

The player should have the right to get professional advice on whether to sign or not. Nobody has the right to tell them WHEN that process takes place.

And they are STILL student athletes after they are drafted as soph-eligibles and juniors, so your POV is full of holes, my friend.

The players don't withdraw from school just before or after they are drafted. That process takes several days, and they start negotiating sometimes within hours.

If you are a US Citizen, you have the right to be represented. The NCAA is so far off base it's not even funny.

22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2011 17:45:11
eknpdx,

Oropesa, based on talent, should be around after round 1. He might, however, be an idea pick for a club that has several picks, including one or more comp round selections.

Other than Jungmann, Cole Green is a nice senior sign, and if he gets healthy and right, Austin Dicharry has a good arm, but he's a mess right now.

Austin Wood at USC is a relief prospect, but he lacks secondary stuff. Andrew Triggs is a second day prospect, and for 2013, catcher Jake Hernandez.

23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2011 17:47:39
Lonnie,

It's really quite simple. What you see in college is more what you get now than a year ago.

There's less guessing.

And no, later round talent aren't going to go earlier in the draft, but the creme will rise to the top.

24. By: StandinPat on 02-25-2011 20:52:03
"Until his rights are aqcuired through the draft (or he becomes a free agent by going undrafted after exhausting collegiate eligibility), there's nothing to negotiate."

That's weird, because I'm pretty sure players move up or down draft boards based on signability and "bonus demands." How could that be the case if those talks only come about after a player's "right's are acquired?" How did the M's have a pre-draft deal with Baron?

And really, why shouldn't a player be allowed to seek counsel for a process he is about to undertake? It's asinine to suggest said player has to wait until he's drafted, and the process is mostly over.

25. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-26-2011 12:45:42
Good article. I've been lobbying for George Springer for months now. I'm glad to see that he's finally starting to get some regular attention. Before it was just Cole. But if I'm right about Springer I think he will be a major contributor at the next level and a future All-Star as well. He'd be a perfect fit in RF to take over for Ichiro when he our beloved retires.

Cole wouldn't be a bad selection either to add to the slew of young arms that we already have stockpiled in King and Pineda. He's projected as a future Ace and would give us a chance to compete everynight out.

But if Anthony Rendon is still on the board, for whatever wierd reason, which I doubt he will be, then I believe he heads and shoulders the most solid #1 overall choice in the draft. Who wouldn't want a young infield that consisted of 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Dustin Ackley, SS Nick Franklin, and 3B Anthony Rendon to build off of. That's pretty solid right there.

26. By: Timberwolf on 02-26-2011 15:00:27
The idea that the athletes should be free to have business relationships with anybody of their choice is very dangerous. Having guys on agent or shoe company payrolls is a nightmare and strips away everything that makes college athletics great. Look at how much damage having Phil Knight and T. Boone Pickens owning their own athletic departments(if not universities) has been.

The NCAA system has plenty of idiotic rules that penalize teams for giving players from poor families trips home to see their sick parents. Requiring athletes to declare their professionalism and lose their eligibility isn't one of them.

The current system works great for kids from middle class families and kids who clearly have no future in "going pro". To destroy it to benefit Scot Boras and the 100 most gifted athletes in the country would be a disastrous mistake.

95% of the problems in college athletics would be solved if they allowed kids to borrow money equivalent to the Federal Stafford Loan levels. Have them guaranteed by the professional sports leagues and unions, instead of the federal government and have those entities also sanction an insurance program that the players can access for injury protection.

27. By: redpine on 02-27-2011 10:05:43

28. By: redpine on 02-27-2011 10:06:44
Jason, Still waiting for handbook. Thanks in advance.

29. By: Kryten on 02-28-2011 16:45:36
I know it isn't the same as college athletics (and I don't want to further that debate), but this does remind me of the Olympics before they recently allowed pros.

The Olympics are the ultimate contest to pit the very best athletes on earth against each other-- except for those who are good enough to make a living at it.

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