Potential M’s trade targets

Willingham Potential Ms trade targetsIf the Seattle Mariners wish to remain in the thick of the pennant race not only will need to get healthy but it’s clear they need to add a few pieces to the roster that presently are not members of the organization. Simply getting Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders and Corey Hart back from the disabled list will not cut it. Despite strong starting pitching thus far, it remains apparent the club also could use a starting pitcher, even with Taijuan Walker taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning for Triple-A Tacoma two starts ago and going the distance in his most recent outing for the Rainiers. There are no impact solutions in the minors for the M’s in terms of offense — there are no miracles awaiting the current roster. They are what they are with limited upside as a whole.

While the trade market has yet to to develop with so many clubs within reach of the Wild Card, there are some names surfacing as potential trade bait. The Mariners should have some level of interest in each of the following if they wish to gain respect around the league.

Jeff Samardzija, RHP — Chicago Cubs
Jason Hammel, RHP — Chicago Cubs
Hammel and Samardzija both have been linked to the Seattle Mariners, though it doesn’t appear realistic that Shark is attainable for the M’s without parting with big-time, long-term talent, including the likes of Taijuan Walker.

Hammel is a rental — free agent after 2014 — while Samardzija has another year on his contract. He’s been offered about $80 million to stay with the Chicago Cubs, but judging by the deals handed out to the likes of Homer Bailey — six years, $105 million guaranteed — Samardzija and his agents know they can get bigger dollars on the free agent market.

Hammel is certain to be significantly cheaper to acquire than Samardzija, but there’s also likely to be more clubs interested.

Hammel would fit nicely into the middle of the Mariners’ rotation, offsetting what may be a slimming down of Roenis Elias‘ workload over the latter months of the season. The South Kitsap High School product is a four-pitch starter including a slider, curveball and changeup. He’s using the two-seamer more the past three seasons and with good results. He sits 91-94 mph with both heaters and generally commands them well to each side of the dish.

He’s nearly abandoned the curveball and changeup but the slider has been an out pitch and he’s thrown tons of strikes this season. He’s more of a fly ball pitcher, but Safeco Field can only help in that regard.

Hammel is set to earn another $3 million this season while Samardzija is due about $2.7 million the rest of this season with a raise of up to $10 million or possibly beyond expected via arbitration for 2015.

Brandon McCarthy, RHP — Arizona Diamondbacks
McCarthy’s peripherals are terrific so despite the 5-plus ERA he’s a candidate to help a team add a win or so their total over the final two or three months. He’ll miss some bats and induce ground balls consistently. He doesn’t walk batters and the Diamondbacks’ bad bullpen has cost McCarthy runs and wins.

The 30-year-old appears healthy and more than capable of eating some innings and doing so in a No. 3 or 4 spot in a contender’s rotation. With Hammel, McCarthy is among the better mid-rotation arms available that aren’t likely to cost a ton in trade chips. His ’14 salary calls for another $4.5 million or so and he’ll become a free agent after the season.

Matt Joyce, LF/DH — Tampa Bay Rays
Joyce is a fringe-average glove at best in left field but the 29-year-old can hit right-handed pitching. He’s batting .280/.375/.409 against them in 2014 and boasts a .263/.356/.473 line agains right-handers over the course of his career.

Joyce also can be used at DH some and is used to being sat versus left-handed pitching, yet maintaining his overall production. He’s set to earn about $1.9 million the rest of 2014 and is arbitration eligible one more time before qualifying for free agency after next season.

Marlon Byrd, OF — Philadelphia Phillies
Byrd may very well be an upgrade to Dustin Ackley, Stefen Romero and Cole Gillespie, but he’s not an impact bat for the middle of the order. He’s always hit left-handed pitching pretty well and is doing so again in 2014 — .310/.347/.606. He’s a reliable defender in a corner spot, too, and is not a rental as he’s signed through next season with an option for 2016.

He’s earning another $4 million in 2014 with $8 million guaranteed for next year. The option is worth another $8 million.

Adding Byrd, assuming the cost isn’t prohibitive, is a plus. Adding Byrd and using him almost exclusively versus left-handed pitching while acquiring a platoon partner — say Joyce, for example — is a pretty significant addition.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF — Tampa Bay Rays
James Loney, 1B — Tampa Bay Rays
I do not expect Zobrist or Loney to be dealt this summer and if they were made available at least a dozen clubs would have strong interest.

Neither comes with a hefty contract; Zobrist will earn another $3.5 million this season and his deal calls for a club option for 2015 worth another $7.5 million. Loney inked a three-year-deal worth $21 million guaranteed this past January, making him an acceptable part of the Rays’ future payroll, as is the same with Zobrist.

The Rays are likely to deal lefty David Price, but the chance they move Zobrist or Loney appear slim, barring a club with young talent to spare and the Mariners aren’t one of those organizations.

Alex Rios, RF — Texas Rangers
Rios may be the best fit for Seattle among all potentially-available outfield bats. He’s 33, has an option for 2015 at $13.5 million or a $1 million buyout so he’s not a rental and while he’s not a star, he comes with few glaring weaknesses.

He’s right-handed, doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls — which means the impact Safeco is likely to have on him isn’t as great as some others who do rely on fly balls. Rios has a .304/.339/.399 career mark at Safeco Field and can play a strong corner-outfield defense anywhere in baseball. Rios also can run, stealing bases as well as going first to home easily on doubles.

He’s not your traditional cleanup hitter, but would provide reliable balance behind Robinson Cano without the sacrifice of defense or speed, and he’d certainly hit for some power, particularly away from home.

The questions regarding Rios are not whether or not he fits what Seattle needs. The question is whether not the Rangers will make him available for anything south of an elite package of players that fill their needs for 2015. Those needs do not match up with Seattle’s depth at all. Texas boasts four big-league quality middle infielders already, so talents such as Chris Taylor and Nick Franklin don’t fill said needs.

Texas could use a big-league ready starting pitcher or two, some bullpen depth and perhaps a future catcher. If Rios ends up in Seattle, a third team might be necessary which makes the chances of a deal occurring that much more unlikely.

Another question for Texas is whether it makes sense to trade away a piece that can help them win next year. The club isn’t flush with outfield options and if they deal away Rios this summer they may find themselves looking for a corner-outfield bat this coming winter.

Gerardo Parra, LF — Arizona Diamondbacks
Parra brings left-field defense, above-average speed and good production versus right-handed pitching. He’s not a big power guy but can get on base with a line-drive stroke.

Parra, 27, will earn another $2.5 million in 2014 and is arbitration eligible one final time before free agency beckons. The Diamondbacks have some outfield depth and are certain to be seller at the deadline, but Parra is probably worth more to them then a club such as Seattle due to how his bat fits the ballpark.

Chris Denorfia, OF — San Diego Padres
Seth Smith, OF — San Diego Padres
Denorfia hits left-handed pitching — this year is not a good indicator of that, however — and can play left field. Smith has always hit right-handed pitching and he’s been the club’s best hitter all season.

He’s a below-average defender, but could be used sparingly in the field and mostly as a DH option. Smith is set to earn another $2.3 million this season and will hit free agency over the winter.

I do not believe Carlos Quentin and Chase Headley are options. The Padres may be better off waiting out Quentin’s health and production so they can get value from him. Headley is a free agent after the season, but he’s played so poorly the club’s new GM — whoever that may be — may prefer to tender Headley a qualifying offer and bringing him back for a year rather than moving him when his value is at its lowest. Headley may be amenable to such a scenario, since his free agent value isn’t going ot be very strong, either.

Adam Dunn, DH — Chicago White Sox
Alexei Ramirez, SS — Chicago White Sox
Dayan Viciedo, OF — Chicago White
FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi has reported the White Sox are expected to have conversations about the above trio. The Mariners could benefit from any of the three, but Ramirez, one of the better shortstops in baseball, is not going to be easy to pry from Chicago, and I’m not convinced he’s the hitter some believe he is.

Forget Safeco’s probably impact, Ramirez’s career road splits aren’t great — .276/.308/.384 — and he’s never been one to draw many walks. The Mariners are looking for upgrades and with Brad Miller out of his funk and climbing, cheap and a better fit for the home park, the cost for Ramirez is certain to be prohibitive, at least for me.

Dunn is a pure DH who doesn’t hit for average and has been the poster boy for the Three True Outcome theory — walks, strikeouts, home runs. He will get on base and hit for power, but cannot be counted on for defense and is a slug on the bases. He’s also a rental, so the cost in trade shouldn’t be too high, but he’s due about $7.5 million the rest of the way before hitting free agency at 35 years of age.

Viciedo, due to some upside left in his game and the fact that he’s under club control for four more years, is likely to be more expensive than most clubs will want to pay. He’s got some pop but isn’t a good hitter so his raw power doesn’t show up much, and he’s a below-average defensive player to boot.

Josh Willingham, DH/OF — Minnesota Twins
Kendrys Morales, DH/1B — Minnesota TWins
It would be quite funny if the M’s traded for Morales next month, but I think Willingham is more likely as a pure right-handed bat who is clubbing left-handed pitching, having a strong year overall and can give you a few not-as-terrible-as-some innings in left field.

Willingham is a free agent to-be, too, and due $3.5 million the second half of the season, a number any team in the race can absorb.

Morales has proven he can hit at Safeco having put up very solid numbers a year ago from both sides of the plate and though Willingham’s career numbers at the Safe aren’t good, he’s adept at pulling balls closer to the line, which is where a lot of home runs come at Target Field. He hits as many balls to straight-away left and toward the line as he does to center and right field combined, and is one of the best and most productive hitters in all of baseball at doing just that. Hitters that can effectively avoid the middle portion of the field at Safeco Field have a good chance to succeed there.


Kemp, the Dodgers and other notes
The Los Angeled Dodgers aren’t trading Matt Kemp during the season, considering the club’s ghost depth in the outfield. Yes, they have names such as Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig, plus Joc Pederson in Triple-A Albuquerque, but Crawford’s health has made him unreliable and Ethier comes with a large contract. The Dodgers have no issues with their current payroll and do not appear to be an organization willing to make a deal just to dump salary.

If the Dodgers entertain offers for Kemp, as was rumored last winter, it’s not likely to be during a season in which they’re crawling up on the San Francisco Giants and in the driver’s seat to for the National League Wild Card.


Among the obvious sellers are the Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, but in the coming days to weeks, the White Sox, Twins, Colorado Rockies, Rangers and even the Boston Red Sox also could flip the switch and sell for next year and beyond.

The Cleveland Indians are one of the key clubs in all this, in my opinion. They sit at 38-40 heading into their weekend series in Seattle, six games off the pace in the American League Central and 3 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race. They have 16 games before the break and 30 games before the non-waiver deadline. A mediocre four-week stretch could provoke GM Chris Antonetti to look to shave a little payroll and field calls on Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn, who are set to earn more than $80 million combined over the next three years provided they vest their options.

There are literally dozens of potential targets for the Mariners, and a number of other clubs if they decide they’re buyers this summer. There will be more demand than supply, however, suggesting if Jack Zduriencik wants to make sure he isn’t left in the cold, he’ll have to beat his competitors to the punch.

Written by Jason A. Churchill

Moi2 Potential Ms trade targets

Executive Editor
Jason founded Prospect Insider in 2006 after getting his start at Inside the Park and covering prep, college and pro sports for several news outlets, local and national, including MLB.com and ESPN Insider. He currently serves as co-host of the Steve Sandmeyer Show on 1090 The Fan, CBS Sports Seattle.

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20 comments on “Potential M’s trade targets

  1. MarinerCoug says:

    The two names I’d target…

    1) Jonny Gomes- Having what appears to be a down year, but, still OPSing over .800 against lefties and has an OBP of .333 overall. On the intangibles side, he’s a vet who’s won a WS, and would likely fint the ‘clubhouse guy’ shtick this organization loves. He also likely wouldn’t cost much as Boston is almost certainly done and he is a free agent at year’s end.

    2) Drew Stubbs- Can play all three OF positions adequately, and has another year after this one for a reasonable rate for a guy who plays ~140 games. He would cost more than Gomes, for sure, but, not likely a premier prospect (although Franklin’s name might come up…)

    [In this, and likely any scenario, Gillespie gets sent down. He's been adequate, but is not an OF you want on a contending team. The other odd man out is Ackley, who has an option, so you can send him down to AAA.]

    Your OF is then: Jones/Saunders/Endy/Stubbs/Gomes. This OF is not among the best in baseball -hell, it’s not even in the top half- but, with this pitching staff and IF, it’s potentially adequate (likely?) to keep the tide rolling onto an 88-win season.

    [Note: If/when Endy's BABIP comes back to earth, you swap someone (Ackley/Almonte, etc.) in for him and move on.]

  2. duworkson says:

    I wonder if a heathly James Paxton and Nick Franklin package could acquire Alex Gordon?

  3. duworkson says:

    Gotta wonder what would it cost to acquire Alex Gordon?

  4. rotoenquire says:

    I would like to see the M’s add a bat. However would love for it to be a young controllable bat. Paxton, Franklin for Pederson and low end prospect B? Heck I would do that just for Pederson. But, that is just me.

    If not some sort of player like that. I would hope the M’s just don’t do anything.

  5. Jerry says:

    If I were Jack, I’d approach this deadline looking to make a big huge move, then later look into more minor things. Basically, I’d group potential additions into categories like this.

    Group A: Really Good Players
    I’d check on the price of guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, etc. The price: probably astronomical. But worth looking into. Any of these guys would give the M’s a legit long-term cornerstone player. If you’re going to mortgage the future, go big. Chances of this happening: dick. But you gotta ask.

    I’d also include prospect/prospect trades here. Someone mentioned Taijuan Walker for Oscar Taveras. That would be a REALLY interesting trade that would make sense for both teams. Similar talents that fit team needs well. These types of deals are exceedingly rare, but it never hurts to ask.

    These types of deals would actually push us from surprising contender to legit good team. But as I said, these are pipe dreams.

    Group B: Talented Younger Change of Scenery Players
    Domonic Brown, Aaron Hicks, Mike Moustakas, Oswaldo Arcia, etc. These guys have talent, but haven’t put it all together. Brown hit well last year, but has tailed off. Moustakas, Hicks, and Arcia all have ML experience, but haven’t broken through. All would be smart additions that – if they benefited from a change of scenery – could be long-term contributors. This makes more sense if they could acquire one of these guys for a similar player on the team, like Smoak or Ackley.

    Group C: Good Players Having Bad Years
    This includes guys like Nick Swisher, Billy Butler, and Carlos Quentin. All are good, but are having bad seasons. If they could be acquired cheaply, awesome. Alex Rios could fit here too, although I wouldn’t consider his season thus far bad. Just mediocre. Quentin is interesting, as he’s not very good defensively and has trouble staying healthy. With the M’s, they could let him DH either part or full time. When he’s healthy, he’s a very good hitter. He’d be ideal behind Cano.

    Group D: Rentals
    Michael Cuddyer, Seth Smith, Josh Willingham, etc. I think Smith is a bad idea, since he’s playing at his peak right now. Willingham and Cuddyer would clearly help the M’s, but they are both older players who won’t be under contract after this year. Both are bad defensive players. Willingham is by far the most interesting name here for me, since he’s a proven bat who would benefit greatly from spending a lot of time at DH. I’d look into signing him after the season as well, regardless of whether we acquire him.

    The short-term moves would only make sense if they cost us very very little. Given the number of teams who are “in it” (of see themselves that way), and the general lack of offense in MLB in general, these guys might cost more than you’d think. Further, how much better are Cuddyer and Willingham than Hart? Cuddyer is just as hurt, and his recent performance it tough to gauge due to the Colorado factor.

    Finally….

    Group E: Pitchers
    The one guy I think is really interesting is Ian Kennedy. He’s got a solid track record of performance and durability, is only 29, and nobody is talking about him. He’s racking up K’s this year, and as a flyball pitcher would not see much of a ding moving to Seattle. Plus, he’s under control for another year. I think he’ll be a lot closer to Price and Smardzija than people think, but at a fraction of the cost. If the M’s did do something huge that involved Walker, this makes even more sense.

    Group F: Patience
    This team is finally getting healthy. Our offense is the big issue, but Logan Morrison has looked good lately. With Walker, Hart, and Smoak both coming back, plus Paxton potentially rejoining the club in a while (hopefully in time to rest Elias and Young a bit), this team looks pretty solid. Sometimes not making a move is the best move.

    That’s how I would approch this trade deadline.

  6. Jerry says:

    “They need help now, and should no be taking risks right now, when players that can help, are a better fit. They don’t need long-term value, they need a short-term fix.”

    This is a stupid way to approach team management, on two levels.

    First, this team is doing pretty well, but I think we can agree that the goal is building a consistent contender. A short-term fix will leave us in the same situation this offseason. Why not work to fix the problem, long term? Or at least for the next 2-3 years? Spending prospects for a rental should be Plan F, and then only if the price is minimal. Its not like we have a glut of near ML ready bats waiting to step in after this year. Half-measures are just that: half measures.

    Second, the main fallacy in you logic is the idea that someone like Smith is a not a risk. Smith has been incredibly inconsistent his whole career. Just because he is playing very well right now doesn’t mean that will continue. It’s called regression to the mean. It’s unlikely he will keep this up. However, that run of success WILL drive up his price.

    There is no such thing as a “no risk” addition. And short-term deals are dumb unless we don’t have to give up anything of long-term value. That’s unlikely.

  7. rjfrik says:

    Don’t be surprised if JZ pulls a major rabbit out of the hat and grabs a young, good, cost controlled player that no one thought of by sending Walker out.

    Tavarez for Walker or something along those lines.

  8. Jason A. Churchill says:

    Darren,

    However, that cannot be adjusted accurately, even in comparison to ballpark factor metrics of the past, because of the changes in the dimensions at Safeco. There is NO DATA for that that can be relied upon. I absolutely misspoke if I said WAR doesn’t include park factors at all, what I should have said was it cannot be remotely accurate for the above reasons, and the resulting number is likely to go against the hitter, considering the formula used to calculate the park factor itself.

    Of course, if I get into the formula on the air, we’ll all fall asleep and I’ll be working at Subway with Jared soon enough.

  9. Tyler Carmont says:

    I agree with the A’s being the best team in baseball, but they’ve had plenty have injury concerns this year already. I don’t doubt their ability to win the division, but until they run away with it, 6.5 games separates the top three teams and a seriously hot or cold streak could change that in a hurry. By no means am I implying that the Mariners are going to go on a 15-game win streak anytime soon, but there’s still plenty of baseball left here. I’d still pick the A’s to win the division right now, but baseball has a funny way of surprising you.

  10. dk says:

    What about Prado on Arizona? I believe they should only be looking at a right handed bat for left field that can bat in either the 2 or 4 hole. Use pieces like Ackley, Franklin, Montero, Smoak and one of their very good bullpen arms

  11. rjfrik says:

    Tyler,

    “The division is winnable”??? A wild card yes, but I don’t see any way the M’s win this division, IMO. The A’s are the best team in baseball.

  12. rjfrik says:

    The reason Brown is a buy low candidate is because pitchers have adjusted how they pitch to him this year, after his break out year last year. The problem is that Brown hasn’t readjusted. I see no reason that he would automatically readjust when he gets to the M’s. So you would most likely be getting the exact same player he has been for Philly this year, which isn’t good. If we are looking for a middle of the order bat, I’m not sure he is it.

    I think established vets would be a better route to go, Rios or Willingham would be my preference. But Brown could be an interesting option, I just wouldn’t expect last years production this year.

  13. Tyler Carmont says:

    Edman — I never said that that was the case. I see literally no reason for the Mariners to go crazy and acquire a rental piece right now. If they can pick up a guy like Seth Smith for a reasonable price then of course I’m all for that, but it’s unclear as to what the price tags are right now. As much as I’d love to see the M’s appear in a playoff game, I don’t want to see the cupboards stripped for a loss in the Wild Card game — that doesn’t make sense to me. Certainly the division is winnable as it stands right now, but it’s not like this club is ‘one piece away’ from the promised land.

  14. Edman says:

    Jerry & Tyler,

    You play the buy low game at the beginning of the season. The M’s are more concerned about being a wild card, so Dominic Brown makes zero sense. They need help now, and should no be taking risks right now, when players that can help, are a better fit. They don’t need long-term value, they need a short-term fix.

    If I had my choice, I’d go with Smith, but it all depends on who Seattle can match up with. Trades aren’t simple to pull off.

  15. bookbook says:

    Would trading away Smoak, Montero, and Ackley be more of an admission of failure than the inevitable optioning and/or DFAs that are otherwise on the horizon?

    The offensive options are underwhelming. I suppose I read this article as more of an argument for standing pat, since the current players are going to have to deliver in any event with very little help at the margins from a trade.

  16. maqman says:

    I like Brandon McCarthy (Diamondbacks), Tyson Ross (Padres) and Jason Hammel (Cubs) as possibilities for the rotation. Willingham (Twins) would be a good stick pick, as would Seth Smith (Padres), Marlon Byrd (Phillies) and Matt Joyce (Rays). There’s an interesting dichotomy in possibly trading away, Smoak, Montero and Ackley as that would be confirmation of obtaining them being a mistake. Not a move of which the front office might approve. Not to mention their perceived values have a substantial negative bias and the return would most likely be less than stellar. Franklin or a bullpen arm would not seem to be confessional and produce equal or better returns.

  17. Tyler Carmont says:

    I’ve heard that Brown’s value is way down from where it was in the offseason, so he could be an interesting pick up on the cheap. Obviously he’s having a down year, but if he can get anywhere near his 2013 production it would be a huge boost in the middle of the lineup.

  18. Jerry says:

    What about Dominic Brown? Could be an interesting buy low candidate. Could be used in a platoon, too.

    Rios would be ideal, but that would probably cost a lot. The Rangers are a good team wrecked by injuries. They should contend next year, and probably won’t be looking to sell off their core players.

    Now would be a great time for Jack to find a hidden gem. The best option could be a younger player who is currently struggling and had fallen out of favor with their current club. A change of scenery guy would be awesome. Unfortunately, we seem to have cornered the market in those types of guys – Ackley, Smoak, Montero, etc. It would be perfect if Jack could move one of those guys for a similar talented player who hasn’t put it all together yet.

    Obviously any option depends on cost, but I’d prefer to see them hang on to goods prospects like Franklin unless they get a similar talent who will be with the team for a while.

  19. Darren Warner says:

    Every one of those OFers is a significant upgrade over Ackley. End the insanity and send Ackley away. Preferably very far away.

  20. Darren Warner says:

    I heard you say on the radio yesterday that WAR isn’t park adjusted. Actually it is.

    ***Park Factors. If you look closely, though, you’ll noticed that a player’s wRAA is not what is reported in the “Batting” section of their WAR value. That’s because players have their performances impacted by their home ballpark, so their wRAA totals must be adjusted based on their home park factors.***

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/

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