With Seattle playing so poorly, fans have no other alternative than to look forward. Luckily, the 2008 Draft is just a month away, and that’s always a special time for true fanatics, particularly after landing a jewel at #11 overall in 2007.

This year the M’s stand at #20. Mr. Churchill’s recent mock draft suggested Yonder Alonso to be the best fit should he fall just far enough for the opportunity. I agree, and for several reasons.

Judging by the current needs (offense) of a team desperate to contend for the playoffs now, i.e. this year and next, it’s pretty safe to say the odds are in favor of Seattle selecting a hitter. With the last two selections being pitchers and with no glaring holes in the major league staff, I can’t see the M’s going for a quick fix hurler. And why would they? Several spots in the lineup are likely to be open as soon as this season as Vidro, Sexson and Ibanez all go up for adoption this winter when their contracts expire. It also just so happens, as Churchill mentioned, that this particular draft is corner heavy, specifically amongst the top 40 prospects.

That same token brings up another point. With that many holes potentially coming so quickly, it stands to reason Seattle would select someone who’ll move quickly enough to be ready by then, if not sooner. That requires an older, polished player, likely a college junior or senior who shows the advanced offensive ability to warrant a quick ascension. A great example is Washington star Ryan Zimmerman, who was a major leaguer the September after he was drafted.

And that point leads to yet another. Whoever Seattle does select will have to sign quickly in order to move quickly. Waiting around until the mid-August deadline to square away the deal essentially guarantees your selection will not make an appearance that season. That leans Seattle’s preferences toward selecting a college senior over a junior. A player that won’t be able to return to college has a much greater incentive to sign.

Those are three pretty basic ideas, but it’s likely the organization’s current payroll will affect the selection as well. The M’s simply aren’t used to the budget being at its current level and though they are, in fact, a large-market team, their 2007 profits of $17M plus were pretty much wiped out by a player payroll increase of about $22M. With attendance sagging the way it has (only 8th in the AL), this could be one way the team saves money.

Which happens all the time. Select a player with weaker bonus demands and the team improves its chances of an easy sign while simultaneously saving money. A college senior most certainly fits the bill in this regard. Again, without the ability to begin or return to college, a player has less leverage over bonus demands and is, again, more likely to sign soon after draft day.

Unfortunately, there are few, if any, college seniors with high offensive ceilings. All of NCAA’s top talents at the plate, including Alonso, are juniors and the only comparable senior is Cal’s David Cooper, who’s ceiling is considerably lower.

Still, Alonso works. Despite being a junior, his intelligent approach to hitting tops that of many major league veterans, several of who currently grace Seattle’s deity-forsaken lineup. Furthermore, Alonso’s offensive ceiling justifies his selection in the middle 1st round and the extra cash it would take to lure him away. So assuming he falls, Seattle should have no qualms about pulling the trigger.

My only qualm is the likelihood that Alonso is even available by #20 overall. As good a fit as he would be for us, he’s just as fine a fit for several teams drafting ahead. In fact, he’s pretty much Billy Beane’s prototype slugger and Oakland selects at #12, right around where most scouting services rank him.

Players that profile similarly to Alonso include fellow juniors Justin Smoak and Allan Dykstra, along with Cooper, but Smoak isn’t likely to last beyond the top 10, while the latter two are probably reaches at #20. The one dark horse candidate, Pedro Alvarez (hamate bone, bonus demands) won’t fall past the free spending Mets, as Churchill so astutely pointed out.

If I were to make a prediction based on the above, I would guess management throws us a curveball, depending on who falls and who doesn’t. There’s no reason why middle infielders Gordon Beckham and Jemile Weeks can’t have their names called when Seattle’s time comes. Though they may not have the power presences of an Alonso or Dykstra, they’re both polished prospects with something solid to offer at the plate. Either one can fill in at 2nd, which may become a need sooner than we want to think and if not, either one can plausibly be moved to left field. With Ibanez still putting up impressive numbers, most can rationalize the M’s extending the fan-favorite another couple years, but should that be the case, expect him to leave the outfield for good, possibly filling in at 1st, more likely at DH.

Whether he stays or goes, it would leave left field open, but with the next best option being Jeremy Reed, Seattle might feel a bit more inclined to draft a quick replacement. (Saunders, as impressive as he is, probably won’t be ready until mid-09’) That’s more likely now to come into play with Johjima sewing up the catcher position and Clement firmly entrenched as the DH/1B and backup catcher.

It’s a roundabout way of fulfilling a need, but it’s certainly a nice fall-back plan in the scenario that Alonso and/or Smoak don’t pull an “Aumont.” (Too many references?) Since we’re looking at college hitters, it isn’t at all impossible that at least one of the four juniors falls to #20. The M’s would get their value, fill a hole and continue their recent string of successful drafts. But should none of them fall, it may still leave Josh Fields.

But I can’t really see that one happening. And by that I mean I can’t logically see it happening. Fields, as good as he is, is only a reliever and while I can’t deny that he’ll sign quickly, move quickly and essentially be instant help to any bullpen, one just has to wonder how much he could really help Seattle. Fields wouldn’t be a closer any time soon, maybe not at all. Even behind Putz are Morrow and Lowe; the latter of who figures to be all the way back pretty soon (7 K, 0 BB in last three appearances). It’s like using three people to screw in a light bulb: hilariously impractical. So if it comes down to wanting an instant middle reliever, can’t one conceivably be found after the first round anyway?

That’s not to say the M’s won’t nab Fields, especially if he’s the only quick fix left. We’re dealing with an organization that traded one of the league’s top relievers straight up for Horacio Ramirez, so it’s not as if lapses in judgment are sparse with the current personnel. I just don’t see how the pick necessarily suits their immediate needs. Honestly ask yourself: How much can Fields possibly help us? Even if he managed to make the majors by mid-July (which would be insanely fast), he’d stand to pitch what, 30 innings? And who’s to say they’ll even be good innings? No. I don’t see that happening, no matter how much they scout him. Unless …

Unless it’s meant to push Morrow back to the minors. Call me crazy, but having three holes in the rotation after 2009, without a soul to fill them, isn’t a great plan. Even extending Bedard still leaves you with two, vacated by Washburn and Batista, and going out into the free agent market doesn’t make sense if there are better, cheaper alternatives waiting and ready. Having Morrow finally develop into the #2 starter we’ve been waiting for would ease the transition from 09-10’ and would certainly look better after passing on Lincecum. Otherwise, you’d be seeing a repeat of Pittsburgh’s draft gaffe last year. We all know what happened then and needless to say; the GM who made the pick doesn’t work there anymore.

Of course, none of this may even matter by June anyhow. Seattle is in last place, eight games back. EIGHT. And it’s frickin’ May. Should that get pushed to double digits by draft day, you’d only have to remember three words: best player available.

The Mariners need help and they need it fast. They need more than just another bat or two that might help wake up an offense that has been dreadful for the first month and a half of the season. They need more than an outfielder capable of chasing down fly balls in left field at the spacious Safeco Field. They need more than Erik Bedard and J.J. Putz to get back to 100% physically. What the Mariners really need is a leader.

If you look up and down the Mariners roster you see some quality names like Ichiro, Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez. You see promising youngsters like Jeff Clement and Wlad Balentien. You’ve got ace pitchers in Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, and a dominant closer in J.J. Putz, but what you don’t see is a true leader.

You might be able to make the argument that the above names lead in their own ways, but the problem from afar is that they all lead in the same way, with actions not words, and as of right now their “actions” are not all that inspiring.

Ichiro would be the most logical choice for leader of the team as he is the face of the franchise, but Ichiro obviously has shied away from that role since the day he came here. Ibanez is a quality guy, much like Edgar Martinez in the way he handles himself, but is he really going to chew on guys when they need their butts kicked? Beltre is a tremendous talent but again is more of the silent type. The pitchers, well, they are pitchers. Putz is the closest thing that resembles a leader, but he’s the closer. He might lead the pitching staff, but that’s not enough.

Manager John McLaren has tried to wake the team up with outbursts in the clubhouse and ejections from games, but it hasn’t seemed to do much yet. McLaren, as the manager, can only do so much. He isn’t on the field playing the game, he doesn’t run out of the dugout with the rest of that team with an attitude that says, “we are going to win this game.”



This is an issue that has plagued the Mariners for year. If you look back to the glory years of Mariners baseball it is easy to pin point a leader on each of those teams. The teams in the 90s had Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buhner to lead vocally while 2001 had an injured Buhner serving as a cheerleader and Brett Boone. Other than that, this is a team that has been struggling to find it’s identity since 2001.

The Mariners last year clearly over achieved. I am not in the group that believes this team was truly a condender. I do believe however that this team had a leader, one that it could use right now. A guy by the name of Jose Guillen. While Guillen isn’t off to a great start with Kansas City (.185/.217/.339) he is the vocal leader that this team sorely needs. Even though he was new to the organization last year, the casual fan could see the team rallied around Guillen. He could motivate guys and push guys. Guillen had a swagger, something that the Mariners do not have this year. His production on the field can be replaced (it can be replaced right? someday?), but right now his leadership and swagger is sorely missed.

To check out “Speed Scouting,” a quick look at a small handful of M’s prospects, Click Here.

At the top of this year’s draft, again, is Tampa Bay, who selected Vanderbilt left-hander David Price with the first pick. And again, a Vanderbilt prospect is considered a candidate for the top spot.

Pedro Alvarez is the best pure hitter in the draft, according to most scouts, and a few even believe he can stick at third, which is contrary to what’s been reported so matter-of-factly by Baseball America and other outlets over the past year.

He’s a right-handed power bat with plus bat speed, great plate coverage and the ability to make good, consistent contact with a line drive stroke that will produce big time power.

But Alvarez is represented by Scott Boras, and his asking price is believed to be in the neighborhood of $9 million, which is likely to scare off as many as 10 teams right at the top of the draft.

Boras also represents Eric Hosmer, another corner bat with limitless potential at the plate, including what one scout called “the best bat speed in the draft in five years.” Boras may ask for as much as $7 million for Hosmer, or at least those are the pre-draft numbers being thrown around.

[I’d bet both Alvarez and Hosmer sign for at least a little bit less than those tallies above]

But if Tampa passes on Alvarez, Griffin HS (Ga.) shortstop Tim Beckham may be the choice. No word on whether the Rays might look to lean a little bit toward a position player with the top pick, due to the fact that their pitching is currently so deep from the bigs down to A ball.

Tampa is also expected to consider Florida State catcher Buster Posey, whom I like a lot, and Missouri right-hander Aaron Crow, whom I personally think has better stuff than Price.

If I were the Rays, Crow would be my choice, without a doubt. If they prefer a bat and want to go the college route, it’s possible that South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak, who has one of the sweetest power swings you’ll ever seen, is their best alternative to Alvarez and his bonus demands.

It’s difficult to imagine Pittsburgh going cheap with their pick this time around, since their new management is in place and they are trying to build some confidence in their fan base.

Posey makes some sense here, and might be their pick, but the Bucs are years from contention, which would lead me toward pitching. I think they go Posey here, but Melville could be on their radar as well.

If Kansas City has a shot at Crow and passes, I will buy the world a Coke. That would shock me. They’ve scouted him very heavily, and their disappointment in ‘06 No. 1 pick Luke Hochevar should help them avoid a comfort zone with their young pitching.

Crow would fit nicely into their rotation in mid-’09 with Meche, Greinke, top prospect Daniel Cortes and possibly Hochevar.

Baltimore could go in one of many directions, but I am hearing they really like Posey, Gordon Beckham, Smoak and Hosmer, and might be the first team n the draft to blink on Boras’ demands for Alvarez.

If the O’s go with Alvarez, Smoak or Hosmer, the San Francisco Giants could go forward with Gordon Beckham, and if Tim Beckham is still on the board, he’d likely be their choice. But as much as their scouting director and staff want to get more athletic up the middle, it’s hard to imagine they’d pass on Hosmer or Smoak if one were available.

And if Sabean gets the okay, they might break some bank out for Alvarez.

The Marlins, remaining predictable, would likely go with either of the Beckham’s or prep right-hander’s Melville or Gerrit Cole. If Hosmer is available, he’s a candidate to go sixth to Florida, too.

The first reach in the draft might happen at No. 10 with the hapless Houston Astros, who have bad leadership, a terrible GM and no direction whatsoever. Tanner Schepper is a nice arm with a No. 2 upside, in the scenario below, Alvarez, Galloway, Wallace, Alonso and Skipworth are all available at that spot.

[By the way, if Washington snags Melville at No. 9, wow, but it really could happen.]

Texas should be looking pitching, if all else is fairly equal on their board, and Oakland could go in any direction. They have become less predictable the past few years, and Skipworth makes sense for them as there are questions about Kurt Suzuki’s ability to catch long term.

Tyler Ross, Schepper, left-hander Christian Freiderich and first baseman Brett Wallace also make sense for Oakland.

The Mets have two picks in the first round, Nos. 18 and 22 overall. If Wallace or Alvarez slide this far, that might be an easy choice for the Mets, who also adore Gordon Beckham.

Isaac Galloway might make some sense here, but with two picks it sounds like in the below scenario the Mets would prefer to split their selections between an arm and a bat. If Skipworth is available, he might go at 18.

If not, Josh Field, the top closer in the draft, could be the pick, too. That is, if he doesn’t go in the top 10 to a team just trying to make sure they get a signable player.

The Cincinnati Reds might be that team at No. 7, and fields may not last past Oakland at 12 or the Brewers at 16.

And M’s fans better hope he doesn’t get past the Cubs at No. 19. If he does, the Seattle Mariners might be drafting another reliever in the first round.

I’m telling you - they LOVE Fields. Lot’s to love, but on the 08-10 M’s squads, he’s just a setupman. A good one with a mid-90s heater and a wicked 84-86 mph slider. He possesses very good command at present, too, so he’s not a project and is probably going to pitch in the big leagues in 2008.

But, I honestly don’t think he’s going to be there when the Mariners choose. Too many teams right in front of Seattle make a lot of sense for Fields.

There’s a decent chance that either Wallace or Alonso last to 20, and Seattle likes them both, though they also have a thing for shortstop Niko Vazquez,  right-handers Shooter Hunt and Brett Hunter, and left-hander Brett Devall.

Seattle is expected to pass on high school pitchers in round one, possibly unless Melville falls that far, and is scouting the college ranks much more aggressively than the prepsters as the draft approaches.

Alonso has good bat speed with a nice bat path creating good loft without sacrificing contact. He’s fanned just 20 times in over 200 plate appearances this season, and has drawn 53 bases on balls.

He’s got pretty good feet, too, and at 6-2 and 220, is just about what you want out of a first baseman physically. His power potential could land him at 30+ homers with a high doubles output.

It’d be a minor miracle if he fell to Seattle at 20, but it’s not impossible. The 2008 draft is pretty deep in corner bats and amazingly, considering Alonso’s .384/.550/.775 line on the nation’s top team, the University of Miami star does not grade out as high as Alvarez, Hosmer, Smoak, and even Wallace.

Wallace is well-liked as well, but clubs have concerns about Wallace’s long-term conditioning and how that may hinder him defensively.

Let’s get right into this - you’ll figure out what I mean by ’speed scouting’ without much trouble.

Kyle Parker, RHP (for slack, sorry it took so long)

Parker employs solid stuff, not overpowering, but with a fastball in the 88-90 range, touching 91 or 92 on his good days, and an above-average curve ball, and his plus command is paying dividends in a tough league in which to pitch.

His heater has decent movement and he’s able to spot it on both sides of the plate, which can get a pitcher outs all by itself.

Parker, a UW product, has prototypical size at 6-3 and 205,  and brings a mature approach to the mound. His changeup is improving weekly and he’ll see time in Double-A West Tennessee at some point this season, if he’s not thrown off course.

Greg Halman, CF

Halman is the best pure athlete in the entire system, but he’s still striking out far too often (39), walking far too seldom (9) and isn’t making progress in those areas, at least statistically.

He has big time power and good bat speed, but his swing, while quick enough to the ball, is fairly busy and he has balance issues at times because of it. For me, I need to see something tangible that shows he’s improved or my regard for him as a prospect won’t remain.

But he won’t be 21 until later this summer and is otherwise having a solid season. I still think in the big leagues he ends up in a corner outfield spot, but he continues to play a decent center down in High Desert. Oh, and look, he just hit his sixth home run of the year to give the Mavs a 2-0 lead.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP

Bibens-Dirkx is recovering from a rather invasive surgical procedure (last offseason) that included removing bone spurs in his throwing elbow. Since his elbow started bothering him early last season, he’s been sitting in the upper 80s more often than he had before.

His numbers last season were solid, sans the walks, but considering he was fighting through the pain and the California League, it’s a miracle his ERA was under 10, let alone four.

This season he’s still battling some soreness, but the club has backed off most of their mechanical changes, finally, and Austin returned from the DL last week after spending that time revamping those mechanics.

Bibens-Dirkx, when healthy, will sit in the low-90s (he’ll claim he can go 92-94, touching 95, but I’ll believe it when I see it) with good movement, with a solid slider and a changeup that he loves to throw these days.

Ryan Feierabend, LHP

I’ve seen Feierabend twice this year, and half of another start (I stayed into the fourth inning), and I haven’t seen anything different about Feierabend’s stuff that he didn’t show last year in Tacoma.

The difference, according to one scout, is that he appears to have a gameplan and is executing it every time out. He’s missing bats with his curve ball and changeup and his 87-89 mph fastbal, while down from his velocity maxes from ‘06 of 90-93, is steady.

His command has been very good as well. Feierabend can pitch in the big leagues if he repeats these performances, probably as a No. 4-5 guy in the AL, and holds a little bit of trade value, specifically to an NL team, namely the Cincinnati Griffeys. (read between the lines)