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In the final mock for me, I still have the Rays taking Tim Beckham with the No. 1 overall pick, and if the rumors are true that have the Pirates taking Alvarez with the second pick, things get interesting right away.

After 10 minutes, Florida State catcher Buster Posey (Pictured at right) is looking for a home with no obvious destination. I have him going seventh to the Cincinnati Reds, but if he doesn’t go first or second, who knows where he ends up, though it’s difficult to believe he’d fall too far.

My reasoning for sticking with Beckham No. 1 is two-fold: One, Beckham is the choice of the Rays’ scouting director R.J. Harrison while the GM and VP of Baseball Operations prefers Posey, and I would like to think they’d trust their scouting director when all is said and done.

After all, that’s what you want the Mariners to do, right?

Tampa Bay has tons of pitching and either pick makes sense for them, but their decision will likely be based on whether they think Beckham is a potential superstar or merely a good everyday shortstop who does a little bit of everything.

If Posey is available, Kansas City could snag him at No. 3, but it also makes a lot of sense for them to snuggle up next to another Scott Boras client such as Eric Hosmer. If Posey is the pick, Hosmer would likely fall to Texas at No. 10, if not further.

With pick No. 4, Baltimore is likely to have their choice of either of the Beckhams, or Posey and Gordon Beckham, as well as left-hander Brian Matusz and first baseman Justin Smoak.

Considering the even grades between the two players on most teams’ draft boards, I have the Orioles taking Smoak, filling an organizational weakness as well as taking the best player available.

If Smoak is off the board at five, the Giants will shed a billion tears and then probably take Gordon Beckham. San Francisco could also tab Posey here, if he was available. Brett Wallace is also a possibility, and while they desperately need position talent, Matusz and right-hander Aaron Crow should not be completely out of the question.

The Marlins, as usual, are likely to take the best prep player not named Tim Beckham with the No. 6 pick - even if Beckham is there, which is possible if Tampa goes with Posey and the next four are Alvarez, Hosmer, Smoak, Matusz/G. Beckham.

Skipworth to Florida makes a lot of sense.

The White Sox could go with Crow or Matusz in this scenario, but may be able to get the best player available and draft for need at the same time with Brett Wallace. The Sox could also agree to pay Yonder Alonso.

I think they go offense and take Wallace, planning to play him at first with Konerko at DH as Thome is phased out.

With Skipworth off the board here, Special assistant Bob Boone is overruled by default and the Nats likely tab Crow or Matusz with No. 9, and Houston is happy to take whichever of the two the Nationals don’t.

Texas and Boras hook up again and find top prep pitcher Gerrit Cole a home and left-hander Christian Friedrich slides in perfectly with the Oakland A’s at No. 12.

The Cardinals seem locked in, at least to me, on Aaron Hicks (left), Tim Melville or Zach Collier, and I have them opting for the center field prospect Collier.

With Hicks telling teams he won’t sign as a pitcher, the Twins, worried about Francisco Liriano’s future and just having re-upped with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, as well as trading for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, opt for the pitcher here in Martin over the outfielder in Hicks.

Even though Dodgers’ scouting director Logan White loves the high-ceiling prep arms, Hicks is too good to pass up here at No. 15.

Milwaukee might have to take Josh Fields and get him in their bullpen by early August in order to have a shot in the NL Central this year, and if he’s closing games for them down the stretch, it was worth the pick at No. 16.

If Alonso or Wallace are on the board at 17, Toronto, long after the college player, is likely to take advantage.

With the first of two picks over the next five selections, the Mets get their catcher of the future in Jason Castro. They could also go for Melville here and hope Castro is available at No. 22, and there’s talk that they’d like to get two bats in round one and wait on the pitchers, which would suggest they could be thinking Lawrie or Kelley at 18 as well.

With no major holes to fill in their bullpen, shockingly, the Cubs may stay away from Andrew Cashner and take the best player available in shortstop Casey Kelly. Kelly interests Seattle, too, but they see him as as a bit of a tough sign after he committed to play quarterback at Tennessee.

No other club appears to be that concerned with Kelly’s college commitment.

In this scenario, I see the M’s taking Melville (right), clearly the best player available, and probably on every single team board at this point.

Seattle’s team doctors, however, have studied and analyzed the paperwork and tests on Fresno State right-hander Tanner Scheppers and have told the front office that he should be fine and would feel comfortable endorsing the selection medically.

Scheppers began the spring as a top 10 talent but multiple exams revealed an impingement in his right shoulder. These impingements are known to occasionally cause small tears in the labrum, which is typically death to pitchers as we know them.

With the typical impingement, which basically means to put pressure on, scrape against or rub, the acromion, which is the front most edge of the clavicle, “impinges” the rotator cuff, causing stiffness and minor pain.

In most cases, however, rest and supervised physical therapy are enough. In some cases, however, the x-ray called an ‘outlet view’ reveals a bone spur in the area, which endangers the rotator cuff further.

The weaker the joint becomes during the whole process, the more a tear in the labrum becomes possible.

In any case, the Mariners clearly do not prefer to draft a college reliever, and if Hicks, Kelly, Scheppers and Melville are not available, they’d consider Zach Collier, Yonder Alonso (yes, they would, they have spoken internally about it over the past 48 hours), and Brett Lawrie.

Lawrie has an up-the-middle bat but the only position up the middle he might be able to play is second base, though there are a few scouts that aren’t completely convinced he can’t catch (most of the scouts I trust say he’s not a catcher).

He could play any of the corner spots, but his bat doesn’t profile quite that well.

Lance Lynn is indeed an option for the Mariners, as I was told very early this morning that “the way things (negotiations) ended a few years back mean nothing to either side this time around. We’re open to all options if the player is the one we want.”

I have also heard rumblings that the Mariners are considering Reese Havens and Jemile Weeks at No. 20, because they are getting a few calls on second baseman Jose Lopez, who is having a decent year thanks to a recent hot streak.

In the end, if Scheppers (left) or Melville is the pick, don’t be disappointed. Melville has better stuff than Chris Tillman - right now, even - and if the doctors did their homework and don’t see a reason for long term concern, well, that’s what they are hired for, I guess.

It’s still better than drafting a reliever in round one, especially with so many readily available in round two.

With Major League Baseball’s First Year Players Draft coming up in less than two weeks, things are getting more and more interesting, as always.

Boras clients drop on Mock’s because of rumored bonus demands, and the speculation about who might take those players and pay them grows with every second - and includes the Seattle Mariners.

While it’s impossible - for me, or really anyone else - to be remotely correct about what happens 20 picks into the draft, the following Mock Draft is one way I see it going.

As you all know, things can and will change, and I’ll put any notable changes in the following mocks, which I will toss out next Friday, Monday and Tuesday night. Most of those differences will be about teams that are rumored to be changing their mind on a player, ruling players out and the Boras factor.

The left column below indicate the Best Player Available (BPA) according to a five-source consensus ranking I put together using Scouts, Inc., Baseball America, and three individual sources that monitor the draft closely.

The next column is my own collaboration of the best players available, using my most trustworthy sources, including my own eye and analysis.

In this week’s installment of the Farm Report, right-hander Phillippe Aumont is the subject. With the 2008 draft coming up, the club’s ‘07 first-round selection is making his mark in Class A Wisconsin, and has just been permanently thrust into the starting rotation after spending six weeks pitching in relief.

In the report, concerns about Aumont’s low arm slot are tackled by his pitching coach as well as scouts who see it as alarming. Also included are his current pitch count limits and a great quote from a scout who said Aumont’s sinker is the best in the minors.

Here is an excerpt from the Farm Report:

“He’s going to get a lot of outs with that heavy sinker,” the scout said. “Down there, the bats aren’t ready for that. They swing at a fastball and instead they get a 95-mph biter that eats their bat for lunch. Kids think twice about swinging at that pitch again. And then he throws the four-seamer, which is what they were looking for the first time. Strike two — and in a big hole.”

Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez are just the latest of the very young stars to ink long term contracts. With their signings the question becomes, why haven’t the Mariners locked up Felix yet?

The idea behind the new big contracts for young players makes a lot of sense. In a time when contracts for mediocre talent are spiraling out of control, teams should invest in the talent that comes up through their farm systems.

While the ends of these contracts seem so far off, by the time a player reaches the last few years of one of these mega-contracts he’ll be a bargain relative to other free agents.

The trend of teams wising up and locking up their young talent isn’t even limited to proven talent anymore.

For heavens sake, Evan Longoria had a huge contract to keep him under team control through 2016 one week after having been called up from AAA.

Felix is clearly a (if not the) key component to the franchise’s long term success. The Mariners seemed to have no problem giving Lopez and Betencourt long term deals even when they were far less proven (and far less talented) than Felix. Then again no one ever accused the Mariners of making the right moves for the franchise’s future.

Additionally, the longer the front office holds off on signing Felix, the more money they’ll be costing themselves. One of the reason these young players get locked up for reasonable terms is that they haven’t truly proven themselves.

Maybe they’ve had one successful season, or show tremendous potential, but they don’t have a history to point to. Felix is only getting better and has 2 1/2 seasons of MLB experience to back up that he can produce.

While his track record may be inconsistent, recent free agent markets have proven that consistency isn’t necessary when dolling out huge chunks of cash.

The more time Felix has to prove himself the more cash he’ll be able to demand. It cannot be that difficult to work out a deal (as proven by all these other contracts getting done). The holdup is probably a issue of years or dollars, but that’s ridiculous figuring the franchise has no problem dolling out 4-years, $48 million for Carlos Silva.

The front office needs to just cave already if they want to keep the future of the franchise happy.

So come on guys, lock The King up.

The Mariners need help and they need it fast. They need more than just another bat or two that might help wake up an offense that has been dreadful for the first month and a half of the season. They need more than an outfielder capable of chasing down fly balls in left field at the spacious Safeco Field. They need more than Erik Bedard and J.J. Putz to get back to 100% physically. What the Mariners really need is a leader.

If you look up and down the Mariners roster you see some quality names like Ichiro, Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez. You see promising youngsters like Jeff Clement and Wlad Balentien. You’ve got ace pitchers in Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, and a dominant closer in J.J. Putz, but what you don’t see is a true leader.

You might be able to make the argument that the above names lead in their own ways, but the problem from afar is that they all lead in the same way, with actions not words, and as of right now their “actions” are not all that inspiring.

Ichiro would be the most logical choice for leader of the team as he is the face of the franchise, but Ichiro obviously has shied away from that role since the day he came here. Ibanez is a quality guy, much like Edgar Martinez in the way he handles himself, but is he really going to chew on guys when they need their butts kicked? Beltre is a tremendous talent but again is more of the silent type. The pitchers, well, they are pitchers. Putz is the closest thing that resembles a leader, but he’s the closer. He might lead the pitching staff, but that’s not enough.

Manager John McLaren has tried to wake the team up with outbursts in the clubhouse and ejections from games, but it hasn’t seemed to do much yet. McLaren, as the manager, can only do so much. He isn’t on the field playing the game, he doesn’t run out of the dugout with the rest of that team with an attitude that says, “we are going to win this game.”



This is an issue that has plagued the Mariners for year. If you look back to the glory years of Mariners baseball it is easy to pin point a leader on each of those teams. The teams in the 90s had Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buhner to lead vocally while 2001 had an injured Buhner serving as a cheerleader and Brett Boone. Other than that, this is a team that has been struggling to find it’s identity since 2001.

The Mariners last year clearly over achieved. I am not in the group that believes this team was truly a condender. I do believe however that this team had a leader, one that it could use right now. A guy by the name of Jose Guillen. While Guillen isn’t off to a great start with Kansas City (.185/.217/.339) he is the vocal leader that this team sorely needs. Even though he was new to the organization last year, the casual fan could see the team rallied around Guillen. He could motivate guys and push guys. Guillen had a swagger, something that the Mariners do not have this year. His production on the field can be replaced (it can be replaced right? someday?), but right now his leadership and swagger is sorely missed.

No, not a good one.

The Seattle Mariners traded Greg Norton to the Atlanta Braves for a player to be named or cash.

Unless the cash totals enough to cover Vidro’s 2008 contract, it wasn’t worth it.

It’s small potatoes, but another sign that the Mariners don’t really have a clue.

Great.