Churchill on KJR




I’ll be on with Softy on KJR at about 12:35 this afternoon to talk about the draft and any other curve balls Mahler throws my way. Click Here to Listen Live

I’ll try not to rip the Mariners too much, as it looks like they have had a decent second day so far, but the only pick that really matters is No. 20.

By the way, for about $2.7 m, or $2 million more than slot, the M’s could have drafted Christian Friedrich and Tim Melville, and had one of the best drafts in baseball.

It’s got to be hard gosh darn work being that inept.

Also, the second half of This Piece Here is my scouting report on Josh Fields.

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Grading the Draft: Day One

Let’s keep this short and as bitter as the Seattle Mariners are obtuse.

with the 20th pick in the first round of the 2008 First-Year Players Draft, your Seattle Mariners select…

The worst pick in the entire first round.

No, not because University of Georgia closer Josh Fields isn’t a really good pitcher, it’s because he’s a reliever and the club has no chance to compete in 2008.

Once again, the M’s make very clear that they have no plan, no vision, no direction and no clue how to truly build a successful Major League Baseball team.

And if at first you don’t succeed, do it again in round two, says the Mariners.

Dennis Raben is an anti-athletic outfielder who projects defensively at first base, but probably doesn’t have the bat to play there regularly.

The knock on him, aside from a lengthy swing, late load and restricting trigger, Raben often finds himself in pitcher’s counts, perhaps due to being too patient. He doesn’t square up balls with consistency and struggles to hit line drives regularly, even in batting practice.

He’s basically Matt Mangini all over again.

The Mariners did better in rounds three-through-six, starting with Ben Pribanic, a 6-4, 200-pound righty with an above-average fastball and the makings of an above-average slider.

In round four, Seattle stayed on the college pitcher trail, taking Elon, North Carolina product Steve Hensley who sits low-90s with his fastball and uses a curve, slider and change. His slider is said to be ahead of his low-70s curve ball.

Perhaps the best value in their draft came in round five when the M’s took Brett Lorin, a right-handed starter from Long Beach State. Lorin is 6-7 and 250 pounds and could follow the career path of since-trade righty Kameron Mickolio, though the Mariners are expected to let Lorin start his career in the rotation.

Sixth rounder Jarrett Burgess is an interest athlete, but you know how that goes sometimes.

Round 1, No. 20 overall - Joshua Fields, RHP - Georgia - D

The sole reason it’s not an F is that Fields is actually a top 25 talent. It just made no sense for a team destined to lose 100 games this season would desire a reliever that high when much of his value is wrapped in the lack of risk in probability and timetable.

Round 2, No. 66 overall - Dennis Raben, 1B - Miami - D

The M’s are clearly trying to find lightning in a bottle with a left-handed corner bat, but Raben invoked this out of a scout that saw him at the ACC tournament: “Not nearly as much to like as I expected. His swing doesn’t bother me too much - (there are) things we can do to fix that - but he didn’t show any intelligence up there, no game plan. It seemed he wasn’t really thinking about the pitcher he was facing or looking at his current count. His physical tools are fine, but he’s not a high schooler with time to develop. We left early on day two to get some food, if that tells you anything.”

Round 3, Benjamin Pribanic, RHP - Nebraska - C+

Not a bad selection, especially this far down in the draft when it’s sometimes barely more than a guessing game with college talent. Most scouts think he’s a No. 4-5 starter or a 7th-inning relief arm.

The best move for the M’s for the second straight round would have been to take prep righty Tim Melville and pay him. Kansas City, a small market club, is planning just that.

Round 4, Steve Hensley, RHP - Elon - C-

At this stage, Seattle could have gone in several directions but are clearly drafting for organizational need. Without a lot of experienced arms in High-A and Double-A ball that project as starters, despite doing the same “draft a bunch of college pitchers” thing three straight years, they continue the trend, I guess hoping to get lucky once.

These types of arms do serve a valuable purpose however. When there is no need to rush such pitchers as Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez, Michael Pineda, etc, you have to fill out a roster with someone.

This way, you can avoid pitching someone in a bad environment, such as High Desert, at all or for too long because there are other competitive pitchers to place at that level.

Round 5, Brett Lorin, RHP - Long Beach State - C-

Really, guys? Really? How many college pitchers do you need to draft before you realize you actually suck at getting value out of them.

The prep pitchers (Aumont, Tillman, Butler, Adcock) seem to be destroying your belief system that college arms are a good idea, especially after round one.

It’s much easier to find a hidden gem from the prep ranks.

Round 6, Jarrett Burgess, OF - Florida Christian HS (Miami, Fla.) - D -

The Mariners scout even said he was a day two guy at best, though he had intriguing physical skills. WTFSMs?

Overall Grade: D+

Passing on Melville and his money demands is one thing, but letting left-hander Christian Friedrich go by, too?

Inexcusable.

A southpaw with three major league average pitches and - a fourth on the way - and above-average command? My goodness, that sounds like a tailor-made slot in the rotation behind Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, and probably ready by July, 2009 when you’d like to boot out another of your veteran starters.

Drafting Morrow is one thing, because there is the chance he can start effectively. Drafting Fields, who has two pitches and no semblance of a third, durability concerns - even in relief - and n ultimate role as a setup man or closer, is insane.

As an organization, the Mariners get an F, and that doesn’t only stand for the worst grade in the book.


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Final Mock Draft

Get the Updated Seattle Mariners Draft Board Here

In the final mock for me, I still have the Rays taking Tim Beckham with the No. 1 overall pick, and if the rumors are true that have the Pirates taking Alvarez with the second pick, things get interesting right away.

After 10 minutes, Florida State catcher Buster Posey (Pictured at right) is looking for a home with no obvious destination. I have him going seventh to the Cincinnati Reds, but if he doesn’t go first or second, who knows where he ends up, though it’s difficult to believe he’d fall too far.

My reasoning for sticking with Beckham No. 1 is two-fold: One, Beckham is the choice of the Rays’ scouting director R.J. Harrison while the GM and VP of Baseball Operations prefers Posey, and I would like to think they’d trust their scouting director when all is said and done.

After all, that’s what you want the Mariners to do, right?

Tampa Bay has tons of pitching and either pick makes sense for them, but their decision will likely be based on whether they think Beckham is a potential superstar or merely a good everyday shortstop who does a little bit of everything.

If Posey is available, Kansas City could snag him at No. 3, but it also makes a lot of sense for them to snuggle up next to another Scott Boras client such as Eric Hosmer. If Posey is the pick, Hosmer would likely fall to Texas at No. 10, if not further.

With pick No. 4, Baltimore is likely to have their choice of either of the Beckhams, or Posey and Gordon Beckham, as well as left-hander Brian Matusz and first baseman Justin Smoak.

Considering the even grades between the two players on most teams’ draft boards, I have the Orioles taking Smoak, filling an organizational weakness as well as taking the best player available.

If Smoak is off the board at five, the Giants will shed a billion tears and then probably take Gordon Beckham. San Francisco could also tab Posey here, if he was available. Brett Wallace is also a possibility, and while they desperately need position talent, Matusz and right-hander Aaron Crow should not be completely out of the question.

The Marlins, as usual, are likely to take the best prep player not named Tim Beckham with the No. 6 pick - even if Beckham is there, which is possible if Tampa goes with Posey and the next four are Alvarez, Hosmer, Smoak, Matusz/G. Beckham.

Skipworth to Florida makes a lot of sense.

The White Sox could go with Crow or Matusz in this scenario, but may be able to get the best player available and draft for need at the same time with Brett Wallace. The Sox could also agree to pay Yonder Alonso.

I think they go offense and take Wallace, planning to play him at first with Konerko at DH as Thome is phased out.

With Skipworth off the board here, Special assistant Bob Boone is overruled by default and the Nats likely tab Crow or Matusz with No. 9, and Houston is happy to take whichever of the two the Nationals don’t.

Texas and Boras hook up again and find top prep pitcher Gerrit Cole a home and left-hander Christian Friedrich slides in perfectly with the Oakland A’s at No. 12.

The Cardinals seem locked in, at least to me, on Aaron Hicks (left), Tim Melville or Zach Collier, and I have them opting for the center field prospect Collier.

With Hicks telling teams he won’t sign as a pitcher, the Twins, worried about Francisco Liriano’s future and just having re-upped with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, as well as trading for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, opt for the pitcher here in Martin over the outfielder in Hicks.

Even though Dodgers’ scouting director Logan White loves the high-ceiling prep arms, Hicks is too good to pass up here at No. 15.

Milwaukee might have to take Josh Fields and get him in their bullpen by early August in order to have a shot in the NL Central this year, and if he’s closing games for them down the stretch, it was worth the pick at No. 16.

If Alonso or Wallace are on the board at 17, Toronto, long after the college player, is likely to take advantage.

With the first of two picks over the next five selections, the Mets get their catcher of the future in Jason Castro. They could also go for Melville here and hope Castro is available at No. 22, and there’s talk that they’d like to get two bats in round one and wait on the pitchers, which would suggest they could be thinking Lawrie or Kelley at 18 as well.

With no major holes to fill in their bullpen, shockingly, the Cubs may stay away from Andrew Cashner and take the best player available in shortstop Casey Kelly. Kelly interests Seattle, too, but they see him as as a bit of a tough sign after he committed to play quarterback at Tennessee.

No other club appears to be that concerned with Kelly’s college commitment.

In this scenario, I see the M’s taking Melville (right), clearly the best player available, and probably on every single team board at this point.

Seattle’s team doctors, however, have studied and analyzed the paperwork and tests on Fresno State right-hander Tanner Scheppers and have told the front office that he should be fine and would feel comfortable endorsing the selection medically.

Scheppers began the spring as a top 10 talent but multiple exams revealed an impingement in his right shoulder. These impingements are known to occasionally cause small tears in the labrum, which is typically death to pitchers as we know them.

With the typical impingement, which basically means to put pressure on, scrape against or rub, the acromion, which is the front most edge of the clavicle, “impinges” the rotator cuff, causing stiffness and minor pain.

In most cases, however, rest and supervised physical therapy are enough. In some cases, however, the x-ray called an ‘outlet view’ reveals a bone spur in the area, which endangers the rotator cuff further.

The weaker the joint becomes during the whole process, the more a tear in the labrum becomes possible.

In any case, the Mariners clearly do not prefer to draft a college reliever, and if Hicks, Kelly, Scheppers and Melville are not available, they’d consider Zach Collier, Yonder Alonso (yes, they would, they have spoken internally about it over the past 48 hours), and Brett Lawrie.

Lawrie has an up-the-middle bat but the only position up the middle he might be able to play is second base, though there are a few scouts that aren’t completely convinced he can’t catch (most of the scouts I trust say he’s not a catcher).

He could play any of the corner spots, but his bat doesn’t profile quite that well.

Lance Lynn is indeed an option for the Mariners, as I was told very early this morning that “the way things (negotiations) ended a few years back mean nothing to either side this time around. We’re open to all options if the player is the one we want.”

I have also heard rumblings that the Mariners are considering Reese Havens and Jemile Weeks at No. 20, because they are getting a few calls on second baseman Jose Lopez, who is having a decent year thanks to a recent hot streak.

In the end, if Scheppers (left) or Melville is the pick, don’t be disappointed. Melville has better stuff than Chris Tillman - right now, even - and if the doctors did their homework and don’t see a reason for long term concern, well, that’s what they are hired for, I guess.

It’s still better than drafting a reliever in round one, especially with so many readily available in round two.

2008 Mock Draft 4.0
No. BPA* Team Pick
1 Tim Beckham, SS Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Tim Beckham, SS
2 Justin Smoak, 1B
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pedro Alvarez, 3B
3 Eric Hosmer, 1B
Kansas City Royals
Eric Hosmer, 1B
4 Pedro Alvarez, 3B
Baltimore Orioles
Justin Smoak, 1B
5 Aaron Crow, RHP
San Francisco Giants
Gordon Beckham, SS
6 Buster Posey, C
Florida Marlins
Kyle Skipworth, C
7 Gordon Beckham, SS Cincinnati Reds
Buster Posey, C
8 Brian Matusz, LHP Chicago White Sox Brett Wallace, 1B
9 Gerrit Cole, RHP
Washington Nationals
Aaron Crow, RHP
10 Christian Friedrich, LHP
Houston Astros
Brian Matusz, LHP
11 Brett Wallace, 1B
Texas Rangers
Gerrit Cole, RHP
12 Aaron Hicks, RF/RHP Oakland Athletics Christian Friedrich, LHP
13 Kyle Skipworth, C
St. Louis Cardinals
Zach Collier, OF
14 Tim Melville, RHP
Minnesota Twins
Ethan Martin, RHP
15 Yonder Alonso, 1B
Los Angeles Dodgers Aaron Hicks, RF
16 Casey Kelly, SS/RHP
Milwaukee Brewers
Josh Fields, RHP
17 Ethan Martin, RHP/3B
Toronto Blue Jays
Yonder Alonso, 1B
18 Jason Castro, C New York Mets
Jason Castro, C
19 Zach Collier, OF
Chicago Cubs
Casey Kelly, RHP
20 Jake Odorizzi, RHP Seattle Mariners
Tim Melville, RHP
21 Josh Fields, RHP
Detroit Tigers
Andrew Cashner, RHP
22 Shooter Hunt, RHP
New York Mets
Jake Odorizzi, RHP
23 Andrew Cashner, RHP
San Diego Padres Lance Lynn, RHP
24 Lance Lynn, RHP Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Weatherford, RHP
25 Reese Havens, SS Colorado Rockies
Robbie Ross, LHP
26 Conor Gillaspie, 3B
Arizona Diamondbacks Conor Gillaspie, 3B
27 Niko Vazquez, 2B Minnesota Twins
Brett Lawrie, 2B/RF
28 Jemile Weeks, 2B New York Yankees
Alex Meyer, RHP
29 Aaron Weatherford, RHP
Cleveland Indians
Jemile Weeks, 2B
30 Robbie Ross, LHP Boston Red Sox Reese Havens, SS

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Mock Draft 2.0




With Major League Baseball’s First Year Players Draft coming up in less than two weeks, things are getting more and more interesting, as always.

Boras clients drop on Mock’s because of rumored bonus demands, and the speculation about who might take those players and pay them grows with every second - and includes the Seattle Mariners.

While it’s impossible - for me, or really anyone else - to be remotely correct about what happens 20 picks into the draft, the following Mock Draft is one way I see it going.

As you all know, things can and will change, and I’ll put any notable changes in the following mocks, which I will toss out next Friday, Monday and Tuesday night. Most of those differences will be about teams that are rumored to be changing their mind on a player, ruling players out and the Boras factor.

The left column below indicate the Best Player Available (BPA) according to a five-source consensus ranking I put together using Scouts, Inc., Baseball America, and three individual sources that monitor the draft closely.

The next column is my own collaboration of the best players available, using my most trustworthy sources, including my own eye and analysis.

2008 Mock Draft 2.0
No. BPA PI Team Pick
1 Tim Beckham, SS Tim Beckham, SS Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Tim Beckham, SS
2 Pedro Alvarez, 3B Justin Smoak, 1B Pittsburgh Pirates
Justin Smoak, 1B
3 Justin Smoak, 1B Buster Posey, C Kansas City Royals
Buster Posey, C
4 Buster Posey, C Eric Hosmer, 1B Baltimore Orioles
Pedro Alvarez, 3B
5 Aaron Crow, RHP Aaron Crow, RHP San Francisco Giants
Gordon Beckham, SS
6 Brian Matusz, LHP Pedro Alvarez, 3B Florida Marlins
Aaron Crow,RHP
7 Eric Hosmer, 1B Gordon Beckham, SS Cincinnati Reds
Brian Matusz, LHP
8 Gordon Beckham, SS Brian Matusz, LHP Chicago White Sox Kyle Skipworth, C
9 Gerrit Cole, RHP Tanner Scheppers, RHP Washington Nationals
Tanner Scheppers, RHP
10 Tanner Scheppers, RHP Gerrit Cole, RHP Houston Astros
Shooter Hunt, RHP
11 Tim Melville, RHP Kyle Skipworth, C Texas Rangers
Eric Hosmer, 1B
12 Brett Wallace, 1B Christian Friedrich, LHP Oakland Athletics Yonder Alonso, 1B
13 Kyle Skipworth, C Brett Wallace, 1B St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Hicks, RF/RHP
14 Yonder Alonso, 1B Yonder Alonso, 1B Minnesota Twins
Christian Friedrich, LHP
15 Shooter Hunt, RHP Aaron Hicks, RF/RHP Los Angeles Dodgers Gerrit Cole, RHP
16 Ethan Martin, RHP/3B Tim Melville, RHP Milwaukee Brewers
Jason Castro, C
17 Aaron Hicks, RF/RHP Shooter Hunt, RHP Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Wallace, 1B
18 Josh Fields, RHP Jason Castro, C New York Mets
Josh Fields, RHP
19 Christian Friedrich, LHP Casey Kelly, SS/RHP Chicago Cubs
Casey Kelly, SS/RHP
20 Casey Kelly, SS/RHP Jake Odorizzi, RHP Seattle Mariners
Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP
21 Jason Castro, C David Cooper, 1B Detroit Tigers
Conor Gillaspie, 3B
22 Andrew Cashner, RHP Ethan Martin, RHP/3B New York Mets
David Cooper, 1B
23 Lance Lynn, RHP Josh Fields, RHP San Diego Padres Jake Odorizzi, RHP
24 Jake Odorizzi, RHP Robbie Ross, LHP Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Lobstein, LHP
25 David Cooper, 1B Reese Havens, SS Colorado Rockies
Zach Collier, OF
26 Conor Gillaspie, 3B Andrew Cashner, RHP Arizona Diamondbacks Robbie Ross, LHP
27 Jemile Weeks, 2B Conor Gillaspie, 3B Minnesota Twins
Anthony Hewitt, OF
28 Reese Havens, SS Jemile Weeks, 2B New York Yankees
Ryan Perry, RHP
29 Dennis Raben, RF Lance Lynn, RHP Cleveland Indians
Niko Vazquez, SS
30 Kyle Lobstein, LHP Ryan Perry, RHP Boston Red Sox Andrew Cashner, RHP

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