It’s been one week since the Mariners inked right-hander Carlos Silva to a ridiculous contract and announced that they were “not done” and still wanted “one more starter.”

In the seven full days since Silva’s press conference where he was awarded the No. 52, even though that has been George Sherrill’s uniform number for the past two-plus seasons, the M’s haven’t done squat.

Normally the lack of money spent or trades made would be a good thing, since the club doesn’t have a great track record of either over the past three years. But it’s difficult to imagine GM Bill Bavasi staying so quiet this winter, when his job is on the line again in 2008.

Being on the hot seat has already proven to mean that it’s a win-now-or-else situation for the front office, and standing pat and hanging onto the club’s farm products isn’t the way to win in 2008.

One executive of an NL club recently let it slip that the Mariners are linked in trade talks with every team his own club has been negotiating with, including the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants.

Clearly the Twins and Orioles are all about Johan Santana and Erik Bedard, but what are the M’s and Giants talking about? Possibly Richie Sexson or Noah Lowry - or both.

“They’re going to make some more moves, I’d bet anything on it,” said the front office rep. “They have too many seeds planted. I don’t think they are willing to part with enough to get Santana, but Bedard is possible and we think the Mariners are our main competition, judging from what we are being told from everyone we talk to on the other side.”

We pretty much know the M’s will make more moves. But will they be smart moves that don’t ignore 2009 and beyond?

“Considering how much action they (Baltimore) are getting on Bedard, if Seattle was going to give up too much, they would have already done so. I think now that they have the kid and three veteran arms, they can avoid that panic trade.”

Sure, they can. But will they?

“From what our guys are saying, it sure appears that Bill and Bob aren’t into trading Jones, let alone all the talk about their arm (Morrow) or any of the veterans,” said a scout from one of the half-dozen clubs the Mariners have had discussions with since the end of the Winter Meetings. “I know Bob from our days with the White Sox and it sounds like he’s rubbing off on Bill and the rest of their decision makers. He loves the younger talents and if he had his way he’d bet on (keeping and developing) them every time over the big contract guys.”

Another representative from the same club had this to say about the trade market this winter:

“I think the buyers have a good chance to turn this into a buyer’s market for once. Cincinnati, Seattle, Boston and the two New York teams could have caved in the two months since the market opened and none of them have done so. All of them have what it takes to get the pitcher they want, but refuse to get taken in a deal. It’s smart, but can they hold out?

“In the past few years, Seattle hasn’t, but things are different. They believe they already have an above-average roster and having added Silva they aren’t acting out of desperation. If I had to predict, I think the Mets and Reds get those two arms, but at fairly high prices.

“Mets get Santana, but it’s going to cost them both outfielders (Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez) and two of their pitching prospects. I see Cincinnati snagging Bedard if they are willing to go Bailey-Votto-Cueto. Baltimore will have to come down from their demands and have already decided Bedard has very little chance to begin the year in their rotation, no matter what they are saying to the media.”

What else might Seattle be able to do for starting pitching? Here is the next group of interesting arms the M’s can look to obtain, based on the fact that in some form or another, each may be be available this off season:

Scott Olsen, LHP - He is available, but Florida is trying to play the game with clubs inquiring about any of their starters, and feel like they are better off waiting on Olsen. If he has a solid start to the 2008 season, his value skyrockets.

Noah Lowry, LHP - Seems like Sabean prefers to include Lowry in a package deal for a bigger, proven bat rather than the small return he’d bring by himself. Lowry is probably a No. 4 at best in the AL, anyway.

Daniel Cabrera, RHP - Baltimore isn’t shopping the big right-hander, but any assortment of young talent that fills holes for the O’s up the middle would probably pry him away from McPhail.

Edwin Jackson, RHP - Tampa is leaning toward using Jackson out of the pen in ‘08, but they are better off getting one 25-man roster piece in return for him since they have Shields, Garza, Kazmir, Howell and Sonnanstine to round out a strong starting five, and Jackson has never fared well in relief and would cheapen his value should the club look to deal him during the season.

Chris Capuano, LHP - Milwaukee appears to be looking for ready or near-ready answers at catcher, third base, second base or center field in return for Capuano, which might be asking too much. He might be a solid fit in Seattle, but trading Jeff Clement or Adam Jones for a No. 4 starter isn’t happening.

Ian Snell, RHP - If the Pittsburgh Pirates were smart, and they have to be smarter than they were last season with their new GM in place, they’d wait until the Bedard and Santana situations have played themselves out and then see what Snell might bring back. He’s a solid No. 3 and has the stuff to pitch effectively in either league, despite his physical stature.

If the Bucs are shopping Jason Bay, they should be open to shopping Snell as well, though he’s not even arbitration eligible until after the ‘08 season.

Neal Huntington has told teams all winter that left-hander Tom Gorzelanny is pretty much off limits until he can assess his future for another season, but that Snell could be in play if the deal filled three holes, including center field or shortstop.

Anthony Reyes, RHP - St. Louis has indicated that they might be willing to trade their former top prospect, but like everyone else will be asking for a king’s ransom. Reyes has No. 2 stuff and decent command, but has struggled with consistency and has been up and down with his velocity, despite the denial that he’s been hurt.

Most scouts believe he can pitch in the American League, but he’ll need to re-establish his fastball down in the zone to keep the home run totals down. He gave up 16 in just over 100 innings in 2007 and has surrendered 35 in 206 career innings.

“His fastball is just too straight right now,” said one scout. “He got away with that in the minors because he was showing better command and he could win with his offspeed stuff. And I’m not so sure he has future success in a rotation anywhere; if Duncan can’t get it from him, who can?”

Mel Stottlemyre?

Depending on what it takes, of course, I’d love to see Reyes in Mariners uniform. He’s a horse, a smart pitcher with a strong work ethic, he’s still just 26 and sat 90-94 with his four-seamer. A new voice and new ideas can always be the difference for ballplayers, and Reyes has good enough stuff to be the M’s version of Mets southpaw Oliver Perez.

For 2008 he’s just a project with upside, but when the competition is an unreliable Cha Seung Baek, a not-quite-ready Ryan Feierabend, the terrible-to-atrocious Horacio Ramirez and three relievers (Morrow, Sean White, Ryan Rowland-Smith), Reyes sure sounds like a good idea.

One of two things is true, and will be known to the world within the next 72 hours or so. Either Hiroki Kuroda will make it official that he is a member of the Seattle Mariners, or the Los Angeles Dodgers are almost as dumb as the M’s.

The Diamondbacks, believed to be in the running with the Dodgers and Mariners for Kuroda’s services, have apparently notified Kuroda’s representatives that they will not add a year to their 3-year offer that reportedly would pay the right-hander about $10 million per season.

The Dodgers haven’t gone as far as telling agent Joe Urbon that they won’t, but they certainly have had plenty of time to add that fourth year to their 3-year offer that is very close or equal to the D-Backs’ offer, and they have yet to do so.

The Mariners, on the other hand, extended that olive branch more than a week ago, and have the largest and longest contract offer on the table for the soon-to-be 33-year-old.

There are positives and negatives for Kuroda, as his preference to play in the western half of the states, can be achieved by accepting the offer from any of the three clubs, but only two of them play in what is considered “warm weather climate.”

But Ichiro and Kenji Johjima have played a role in the recruitment of Kuroda, and surely he has been told that about the summers in Seattle and how the city’s weather reflects the climates of many of the larger cities in Japan.

The one thing the Mariners can offer that nobody else can is a Japanese speaking catcher, not to mention a World Champion pitching coach. One source says the difference will be the contract first, then Kuroda’s comfort level with the roster and staff.

Advantage Seattle.

As for the Erik Bedard sweepstakes, they haven’t gone anywhere since Tuesday, and the club’s preliminary talks with Geoff Jenkins and Mark Loretta probably aren’t going to go any further than they have.

I still contend that trading Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and George Sherrill, whom the O’s have reportedly demanded to be included in any trade with Seattle despite the presence of Jamie Walker in their bullpen, is not a good idea, since Bedard has made it clear through his agent Mark Pieper that he will test free agency whether he’s a member of the Baltimore Orioles or another team.

In two years, Jones and Morrow are mainstays on any team’s 25-man roster playing for about $1 million combined, while Bedard is hitting the market, leaving the Mariners with nothing to show for the trade.

The only way trading for Bedard makes sense (not including extending his contract since he apparently will not under any circumstances), is if the club goes for it all. Make every move before and after the Bedard deal as if you are one more player away from contending in the uber-tough American League.

I’m very skeptical about the idea of dealing Jones in general, though in the end I would be fine with it if the rest of the roster was tuned up as well, because adding Bedard and Kuroda and not adding at least two upgrades to the offense doesn’t even get the Mariners out of second place in their own division. What a waste that would be - trading two young, cheap contributors with all-star ability only to stay in second place.

But here’s an idea.

We know Jenkins and Milton Bradley are available via free agency, and it sounds like a two-year offer gets either guy right now, so perhaps the Mariners can improve their best case scenario even more than I proposed a few nights ago - without sending Jones anywhere but to left field at Safeco every night in 2008.

The Orioles wants Jones involved because he is a long-term answer at a premium defensive position. Baltimore is shopping Miguel Tejada and will need a new shortstop, too, but those are much tougher to come by. But why does it have to be the M’s version of the young center fielder they demand as part of a deal for Bedard?

What if the Mariners made a prospect-for-prospect deal with the Chicago Cubs, mainly sending Wladimir Balentien to the North Side for Felix Pie? If it took a throw-in to get it done, fine.

Then the M’s could flip Pie in a package to Baltimore for Bedard, which would make me more willing to part with Morrow and Sherrill, too.

The Cubs, with Lou in town, aren’t likely to give Pie the chance to break himself in, and while the same would go for Balentien, if Jose Lopez was the second player coming to Chicago, the Cubs would have to pull the trigger, since they are looking for other options at second base.

Lopez could flourish in a hitter’s park in a better lineup and the Cubs could use Wlad as a trade chip of their own as they continue to look for proven help at shortstop and right field.

Baltimore isn’t demanding a second sacker in return for Roberts anyway, so the M’s could still make a more-than-reasonable offer for both Bedard and Roberts without Lopez being part of it all.

Let’s assume that the Cubs went for the Wlad-Jose for Pie deal.

The new Mariners offer to Baltimore could be as follows - and let me remind everyone that the Brian Roberts idea has not been talked about between the two clubs as far as I know, and I haven’t read it anywhere but here and at USSM, where apparently for about three hours this week, Cameron and I shared the same brain.

Seattle sends CF Felix Pie, RHP Brandon Morrow, LHP George Sherrill and OF Jeremy Reed to Baltimore -

Baltimore sends LHP Erik Bedard, 2B Brian Roberts and MI/CF Freddy Bynum to Seattle -

Why Seattle does this:

It didn’t cost them Jones, for one, and though Wlad could surpass Jones’ offensive output, especially in the NL, AJ’s defense holds so much more value in Seattle, even in left.

Sherrill, while among the top few left-handed relievers in baseball, is about to start making money, and though he wasn’t expensive yet, it’s a good idea to trade him when his value is at its highest, and while you have two other very capable lefty relievers to take up the innings he leaves behind.

Reed’s future certainly isn’t in Seattle, and there are scouts that still believe the right situation could bring out the best in Reed, which at this point is as a solid defensive center fielder in a smaller ballpark, or a below-average offensive left fielder with plus range. Either way he’s a sub for now, but could be a very valuable one for cheap.

Morrow hurts, because they spent a high pick and more than $2 million on him, but the organization is literally stock full of quality power arms (Tillman, Aumont, Ramirez, Butler) and if they have even a 25 percent development rate with them, coupled with the presence of Bedard, Morrow’s departure doesn’t even leave a hole of any kind, temporary or long term.

Why Baltimore does this:

At the very least they get one premium setup man closer in Morrow, who at best could be a No. 3 starter, perhaps even a No. 2 if his changeup continues to improve. Morrow will make near the league minimum for two more years, too.

Pie is a perfect fit for Camden Yards, where his plus range in center will give the club its best outfield defender in more than two decades and offensively Pie is no slouch, either, projecting as a .280/.340/.440 type with plus speed that could net him double figures in triples and 30+ steals per year. If Pie repeats the improvements he made with his plate discipline this past season, he could end up as more of a .300/.350/.450 guy instead - and he’s a left-handed bat.

And don’t ask me why the Mariners don’t keep Pie and send Jones to Baltimore. Jones is the superior player, even when you factor in the park effects versus the handedness.

Pie-Morrow-Sherrill is a better package than what the Boston Red Sox are offering the Twins for Johan Santana (reported as Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie, or Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and Michael Bowden). And it’s right on the heels of the Yankees max offer, too. The presence of Phil Hughes, who projects as a legit No. 2 starter, trumps the M’s package, but it’s very close.

Defensive-minded center fielders who give you plus offense aren’t easy to find, and it’s more difficult to find cheap ones that bat left-handed. Baltimore might even prefer Pie over Jones.

The biggest reason the O’s may seriously consider such a deal is that they aren’t likely to get a better offer from the Dodgers or Mets, and Peter Angelos isn’t going to let McPhail trade Bedard to the rival Sox or Yankees.

The Dodgers could beat any deal Seattle puts out there if they start with Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, but I can’t see any scenario where they add Kershaw to the paclage, and they have already turned down a Bedard for Kemp-Broxton package.  If they change their minds, that deal is close to what Seattle could offer, but I’m not sure it’s better.

Though Kemp is a little bit better overall talent than is Jones, Broxton is purely a reliever while Morrow has at leasta  fighter’s chance to be an above-average starter and Sherrill gives the O’s a southpaw hammer for the late innings.

The Mets contend that Fernando Martinez is off limits, as he should be for any available pitcher not named Johan Santana, so the best the Mets can do is a Carlos Gomez-Philip Humber-Aaron Heilman package, which is apparently what they offered both the Twins and Orioles for each club’s left-handed starter.

Pie is a better player than Gomez, Humber is a No. 3 starter at best - in the NL - probably a No. 4 in the AL and Heilman is just a middle reliever who is about to start getting expensive via arbitration.

Without adding Martinez or Mike Pelfrey into the trade, which they said publicly they will not do for Bedard,  they don’t touch the M’s potential offer.

A Beautiful Quote

Note: I have to leave out actual player, executive and team names from the following quotes, in order to protect the front office member’s identity as well as his organization’s. But this blew me away yesterday.

I called this particular scout type who serves as an assistant to the GM of sorts of a club east of Arizona and west of Japan. I was asking about the current defensive abilities of a player the Mariners have been linked to very lightly, and the conversation crossed over into a few players his club was open to moving. What he ended up admitting to shocked me a bit.

Again, team names, player names, cities, staff names, etc, will be replaced by generic names to protect his identity.

Here it is verbatim as it turned from “can this guy play any defense?” into a free-for-all about his club’s future and plans.

Churchill: So if he’s is just average in the field, why the extension last year?

Smith: Because Sanchez needs a babysitter and Miller was among the very few that don’t speak spanish fluently but still had a good relationship with Sanchez. We kind of spent an extra 20 percent to keep Sanchez happy, and Miller was a pretty good liaison between Sanchez and the staff.

Churchill: What is Sanchez’s problem?

Smith: He’s a piece of work, really, ya know? That’s the main reason why Bob refuses to begin 2008 with him on the roster. We obviously aren’t telling other teams that, but I’d be more than surprised if Sanchez is here when Spring Training begins.

We’re pretty much blowing this up, and even though it’s killing Roger, I guess he just trusts Bob enough to allow him some leash to get things going in the right direction.  That’s a first.

Churchill: Blowing it up, meaning everyone goes?

Smith: Anyone that qualifies, yes. It’s not unheard of, and we aren’t even the only club doing that this winter, but it probably would surprise a few to hear it that way if they knew. We’re actually really excited about it. I’m anxious to see how this ends up so we can look forward to winning games.

Churchill: Qualifies how? Free agent to be?

Smith: I don’t know exactly what it is Bob is thinking but the basic parameters are that if the player is likely to not be here after the ‘09 season and can bring back younger, cheaper value where we need it - or will need it two years -  we’re going to try and trade that player and bring in the future.

We aren’t just a move or two from contending, and if we deal Sanchez and Ricky and Adam probably fits in their also, and can look forward and see the return helping us compete in two years, then Bob is going to pull the trigger. With Sanchez, though, the best offer is going to win that. In fact, with Ricky, too. The offers we have gotten for Ricky thus far are probably good enough to get it done in the end.

Churchill: So why no deal yet, then? Just holding out for as much as possible?

Smith: Sure, yeah. Bob fully believes he’ll be able to get quite a bit more for Sanchez than what’s been offered thus far, and Ricky’s suitors are all in the right area, but those clubs have more to send back and he’s giving it everything to get those.

Something is very likely to get done on both those guys this month.

Churchill: What about with Johnson, Adam and Finley?

Smith: Adam could go in the same deal as Ricky or Sanchez. Obviously Sanchez is the key guy with the contract but Adam is owed a little bit of cash, too, though we think he adds to a deal like that, rather than being seen as burdening the other club.

Johnson might be one we hang onto, simply because he’s young enough and cheap enough to make sense two years from now. But if we were offered a premium package, he’d be gone, too.

I’m not saying anything you wouldn’t have guessed after I let it out that we were blowing it up, but you do know this has to stay between us. I trust you, but this can’t get published.

Churchill: Can I change all names and teams and not mention positions?

Smith: I’d rather you didn’t, unless you want to send me what you want to use first so I know what’s going to be out there.

Churchill: I can do that.

But tell me why Roger would allow this?

Smith: He’s actually getting tired of being a kind of laughing stock, I think. I’m not in those discussions, but from what I hear he’s just frustrated and is bending on his ways a bit. He thinks Bob is the perfect guy to get this type of job done and it’s why he was brought in.

We have so much competition here and things have been so bad for so long. I’ve been here five years and we haven’t even sniffed at adding a player in July for the stretch run. That’s not what in this town is about. I played here for three years in the 70s and was around the club in the 80s and when I came back after the 2002 season, it was like I’d never been here before. It was like going to lunch with the Grim Reaper around here in November.

Churchill: So if you had to guess where these guys are going, Sanchez, Miller and Ricky anyway, do you have an idea as to what offers have been made?

Bob, Jimmy and I talked last night about all of the offers and the one thing I can say for sure is that we haven’t had an actual offer on Miller. We’re waiting for an official offer on Sanchez, but have had a lot of conversation back and forth. I personally spoke with Las Vegas about Sanchez, but Bob and Jimmy have done most of the work on these.

I think Ricky goes out west somewhere, though. That’s just a feeling, because the other clubs haven’t been nearly as aggressive.

END -

He went on to say that they weren’t having a fire sale because salary didn’t have much to do with the idea. It’s all based on whether they feel that player will be there in 2009, and whether he can help the team contend. They think they have enough young talent to stay interesting for a year or two, and then they may jump back into the market for veterans when the kids are ripe.

I just thought that was unbelievable, and since this clubs is a team that has had talks with the Mariners about a player, as well as other clubs about other players, it struck me as more than just entertaining.

According to multiple sources, and now being reported by ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark as well, former Seattle Mariners right fielder Jose Guillen is nearing a deal with the Misfit Mariners, the Kansas City Royals.

That’s not shocking at all, but the pact is believed to be for three years and about $36 million. Guillen was not offered arbitration by the M’s, which was an enormous mistake, because the Royals have been hot on Guillen’s trail from the very start and there was never a chance the 31-year-old was going to accept arbitration in lieu of a multi-year contract.

By now we all should know how the Seattle Mariners operate, including what kind of player they typically seek out on the open free agent and trade markets. It’s rarely about the best player, but rather the best player who qualifies under their preposterous “good guy,” “local boy” or “fiery leader” requirements, which obviously eliminates them from acquiring better talent than they generally do.

The local connection syndrome is plain stupid, but that has been beaten to death over the years, as has the organization’s overwhelming desire for the good guy. Yeah, sure, they took a few chances the past few seasons on Carl Everett, a failed attempt, and Jose Guillen, who was probably the team’s best bat from April through September this past season.

But there’s a reason why Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong were each ok with GM Bill Bavasi handing out $10 million in guaranteed cash to Everett and Guillen, who displayed the tendency to wear out their welcome with several previous employers.

They miss Jay Buhner.

They don’t necessarily miss the 40 home runs, the consistent all-out hustle and the strong on-base skills, oh no. They miss two things in particular; his popularity with the fans that helped line their pockets, and the ingredient that inclined their desire for Everett and Guillen - fire.

Jay Buhner was a fiery leader who spoke out when no other players would. Whether it was a pep talk or tough love or a championship caliber speech laced with inspiring profanity, Bone was that kind of player.

So as you graze over all the ideas to improve the 2008 Seattle Mariners, remember who is making these decisions and the things they believe works in the game of baseball.

Just don’t get them confused with the beliefs of anyone smart enough to know that those attributes don’t win baseball games.

Buhner’s leadership would have meant nothing to the rest of that roster if he was a .220-hitting, no-field fifth outfielder who kissed the ass of the coaching staff to get playing time and a multi-year arbitration contract.

Junior, Edgar and the boys would have shut him up long before he could ever say “Fuck the wildcard.” He wouldn’t have mattered at all if he couldn’t play the game at a high level. I don’t know where you sit on this subject - for all I know, you buy into it, too - but I would think you’d prefer, for example, that your favorite team landed, say, Ryan Howard this winter rather than Jeff Conine, right?

So when you run across quotes like this…

“Listen… we’re not just a good team. We’re a great team, and don’t you fuckin’ forget that. And let’s go play one at a time and go prove that. Because let me tell you something….”

[The player] pulled on the sides of his gray road jersey. “There’s a reason why you wear this uniform….”

He paused for a beat, letting the suspenseful silence fill the rapt room.

“Because you’re a bad motherfucker.”

…remember that the reason why the player who said these words to his team before a rather crucial game this October is an MVP candidate year-in and year-out is not because he says these words to his team before crucial games in October.

It’s because he can hit at the highest of levels, smashing good pitching, bad pitching, mediocre pitching, terrible pitching, righty pitching, lefty pitching, starters, closers, at his home park and every road park in every situation and for average, for big-time power, leading his team into October to begin with.

So here’s wishing good luck [desperately needing it] to the Seattle Mariners front office and ownership representatives as they begin to unfold their plan to put a winning baseball team on the field at the Safe in 2008.

Most, if not all of us know that David Ortiz is great because he can rake with the best of them. Hopefully, at some point, Lincoln and Armstrong, and to a lesser extent Bill Bavasi and company either purchase a clue, or are replaced with those who are proud owners of said clues and treat the fans that have so unconditionally loved and supported this team - and their bank accounts - for the last 13 seasons, with the team they deserve.

Boston Red Sox fans paid dearly for their World Series titles, but they now have two because they are the best run big-market franchise in the game, making sound decisions regularly.

Seattle’s faithful has paid a price, too, and while it certainly hasn’t been 86 years, it’s been a lifetime for many. David Ortiz is a perfect example of what all teams should be after, but for the right reasons, not because he can make goosebump-raising speeches.

The job that Colorado Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd and his entire staff has done the past three seasons is a perfect example, too. Not because they went out and traded for 25 leaders or the hitters with the best batting average or the pitchers with the most wins. But because they went about things the right way, and didn’t force the issue and make mistake after mistake after mistake, setting the club back over and over.

The Sox are a perfect example of mixing payroll with youth, experience and a balanced staff of players, coaches and managers, to go with a front office whose ownership hired them to do a job and allows them the freedom in which to do it.

Is it that hard to copycat in baseball?