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Umpiring in the AL West

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-05-12
How often does an umpire affect the outcome of a game?

For the Oakland Athletics, the answer may be, "One too many times." Last Wednesday, Oakland shortstop Adam Rosales represented the tying run in a 4-3 contest between the Athletics and the Cleveland Indians. In the 9th inning, he answered Chris Perez's fastball with a shot to left-center field, where the ball bounced off the top of the wall and back onto the field.

At first glance, crew chief Angel Hernandez ruled it a double, but was soon urged by Athletics' manager Bob Melvin to verify his findings with video replay. During the delay, the televised broadcast replayed the hit multiple times, revealing to viewers that the ball had ricocheted off a railing right above the yellow line. According to both teams' broadcasters, Rosales had just hit the game-tying home run.

When Hernandez returned, he upheld his initial ruling. Rightfully incensed, Melvin stormed onto the field and was promptly ejected for arguing the decision post-replay. Fans took to Twitter; national media, to their columns. At any point in the game, Hernandez's judgment call would've been cause for concern -- with the final outcome on the line, it was unforgivable.

Following this incident, and the ensuing demands for a restructured umpiring system, I began to wonder how many times poor officiating has affected the AL West. Hernandez's blown call may be the most drastic and poorly handled in recent history, but it's certainly not th...

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Prospect Pitch: May 13, 2013

By: Michael Schwartze on 2013-05-12
Monday's games showcase a handful of interesting talents taking the mound and is high-lighted by a pitcher-batter matchup in the Florida State League that features a pair of top 50 prospects.

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Tyler Pike, LHP (Mariners) -- Kane County at Clinton (Low-A
Pike (1-3, 3.33 ERA, 27 IP, 22 H, 28 SO, 10 BB) has done a great job pounding the strike zone this year and getting swings and misses while keeping the walk numbers relatively low. The lefty has also allowed just one homerun on the year.

The Cubs Low-A affiliate has some interesting names on the roster, headlined Dan Vogelbach. The big, left-handed slugger is hitting .288/.366/.488 with 5 homeruns on the year. Another interesting name on the roster is third baseman, Jeimer Candelario (.229/.352/.311)

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Answering PD questions

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-05-11
Although much of the current Seattle Mariners player development division did not arrive until following the 2011 season, the current regime in charge of baseball operations took the reins in 2009. Inheriting an organization and fan base far removed from the magic of the clubs record-tying 2001 season, instead being handed the task of presiding over a minor league system rated three times in the previous four seasons as among the 10 thinnest in Major League Baseball.

While major league results have varied -- organizational and player -- system depth, near its lowest peak in team history just a half decade ago, has been resurrected.

However, along the way, once the initial hurdle has been cleared, the mission statement becomes flipping that system depth into major league performance (i.e. wins). While much of the talent that has entered the organization over this time-frame is still a season or two from stamping their major league passport, it's the players that have arrived which are the largest question in regards to this regime. That question; Are the Mariners bad at developing players?

At 75 games below .500, dating back to the 2009 season, an assumption hangs over this regime that the performance of the major league club is directly related to their ability to...

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Prospect Pitch: May 12, 2013

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-05-11
Sunday's games boasts a handful of pitcher-batter matchups to keep an eye on, a few pitching prospects are going toe-to-toe, and a number of notable talents take the mound.

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Jameson Taillon, RHP (Pirates) vs. Andrew Susac, C (Giants) -- Richmond at Altoona (AA)
Taillon (2-4, 3.26 ERA, 7 GS, 38 2/3 IP, 37 H, 39 SO, 13 BB) has shown solid progress in terms of control and command this season, but his fastball has been hit a little bit and his command has been off in each of his last four starts.

The Richmond club boasts Susac (.297/.396/.538), perhaps the heir apparent to Buster Posey.

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Zunino's struggles

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-05-11
The Seattle Mariners' top prospects have struggled some early this season, from James Paxton's control issues to Mike Zunino's recent slump at the plate. There are just as many positive performance, however, but we'll tackle the negative, too, in this week's M's Prospect Notebook.

This week's edition includes my thoughts on why Zunino is struggling and how he can get out of it, plus a review of the organization's Top 10 Prospects and five prospects that have most improved their stock since the season began.

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Prospect Pitch: May 11, 2013

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-05-10
The Texas Rangers -- with one of Major League Baseball's top minor league systems -- will be tested on Saturday, facing San Diego Padres Robbie Erlin and Boston Red Sox Henry Owens among others. Keep your eye on Kansas City Royals Yordano Ventura as 2013 rolls along -- facing Springfield on Saturday -- coming off back-to-back ten strikeout outings.

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Tyler Skaggs, LHP (Diamondbacks) -– Iowa at Reno (AAA)
The Diamondbacks system received a star performance from their other top-rated lefty – David Holmberg -- on Thursday, throwing eight innings of five-hit baseball. Skaggs (2-4, 6.89 ERA, 31 1/3 IP, 35 H, 32 K, 14 BB), who has struggled mightily as of late allowing 11 runs over his past two outings, would love to get back on track against Iowa. One of minor league baseball's elite arms -- offering hitters...

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Prospect Pitch: May 10, 2013

By: Michael Schwartze on 2013-05-09
Friday’s matchups feature a headline battle between Trevor May and Xander Bogaerts that was supposed to take place on Thursday but was pushed back a day due to rain. There are a couple notable 2012 first-round arms going as well.

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Trevor May, RHP (Twins) vs. Xander Bogaerts, SS (Red Sox) -- Portland at New Britain (AA)

May (1-1, 3.90 ERA, 32 1/3 IP, 28 H, 27 SO, 18 BB) made a great bounce back start in his previous outing start after getting blown up for eight runs in four innings back on April 29th. The Kelso, Washington native could get promoted to Triple-A in the near future if he shows improvements in his command and gets his walk numbers down.

Bogaerts (.298/.365/.471) has been hot over his last games, hitting .326/.396/.674 with two homeruns. He has also racked up four triples over...

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Prospect Pitch: May 9, 2013

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-05-08
Thursday's games are littered with top hitting/batting matchups –- including Trevor May vs. Xander Bogaerts -- Take Two. The pair were slated to face each other on Saturday but Bogaerts did not make an appearance and May went on to shut down the Portland Sea Dogs through seven innings.

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Gerrit Cole, RHP (Pirates) -- Indianapolis at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA)

Last Saturday, Prospect Pitch covered Cole (2-1, 2.45 ERA, 29.1 IP, 21 H, 21 K, 17 BB) against the Iron Pigs – citing the need to control his arsenal as his key to success. The right-hander picked up his third no-decision of the season – walking two – hitting one batter and throwing a wild-pitch through six innings. While his control has been questionable – see his K/BB numbers above – it has yet to ‘bite’ the right-hander, who has recorded th...

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April Roundup: The Top Rookies

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-05-07
With the month of April now in the rearview mirror in Major League Baseball, it's time to have a look at the Top 5 rookies from the month of April.

1. Shelby Miller, RHP -- St. Louis Cardinals **Prospect Insider's Rookie of the Month**
Shelby Miller posted a 2.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 30.2 innings during April. He dominated hitters with a 9.68 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). An extreme fly-ball pitcher throughout his career, the 22-year-old Texan inched his ground-ball rate up to a more palatable 45.5%. Miller is well on his way to becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter.

2. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP -- Los Angeles Dodgers
Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu has adjusted quickly to Major League Baseball. He was extremely durable by pitching 37.2 innings in April. He whiffed a ton of batters with a strikeout rate of 10.99 K/9 but was touched up for four long balls. If he's going to continue having a below-average ground-ball rate (40% last month), Ryu is going to have to lean on the some of the spacious parks found in the National League West -- including his home park.

3. Evan Gattis, C -- Atlanta Braves
Gattis is no spring chicken at 26 years of age but his 13 extra base hits -- including six home runs -- in 21 games opens some eyes, especially given the added defensive value he possesses. He can play catcher, first base and left field. With the return of veteran catcher Brian McCann fr...

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Prospect Pitch: May 8, 2013

By: Michael Schwartze on 2013-05-07
Wednesday's Minor League Action features some exciting match-ups, including two top 100 prospects squaring off in the Mid West League.

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Joseph Ross, RHP (Padres) vs. Corey Seager, SS (Dodgers) -- Great Lakes at Fort Wayne (A)

I am a big fan of Ross (3-0, 1.78 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 18 H, 23 SO, 9 BB) and the high upside, projectable righty has gotten off to a great start in the Midwest League.

Ross takes on a Great Lakes’ lineup that is highlighted by the Dodgers 2012 first-round draft pick, Cory Seager (.267/.336/.411). Seager has not gotten off to the best start. He has walked 26 times in 101 at-bats and has walked 10 times.



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M's draft strategy, options

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-05-06
Never has there been more of a need for clubs in the draft to have a strategy than right now. This is Year 2 of the new CBA rules that limit total bonus monies for clubs through round 10, prompting some clubs to play the market conservatively early to enable them to go over slot with later selections.

For the Seattle Mariners, whose first pick is at No. 12 overall, the club is probably better off sticking with best player available, considering the strengths and depth of the class.

A few weeks back I wrote about one of the potential targets at that pick, but there are several more that may make sense.

Kris Bryant, 3B/RF -- San Diego
Bryant is among the top five prospects in the draft and the chances he falls to 12 are closer to none than slim. If something unexpected occurs and he's available, he'd be an easy choice.

D.J. Peterson, 3B -- New Mexico
If Peterson was viewed as a premium defensive third baseman he might be a consensus Top 10 talent, but some clubs see him as fringy at best.

I saw him in Tempe -- he looked OK -- but he's not tremendously athletic, and while the outfield isn't a good fit, we're not talking about a DH here, and a few teams have opined that he should be just good enough at the hot corner.

He can hit, perhaps somewhere in the Kyle Seager 2013 neighborhood, but if he has to move to first base his cei...

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Prospect Pitch: May 7, 2013

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-05-06
Highlighted by Jameson Taillon and Aaron Sanchez, Tuesday's games feature some of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Additionally, Tacoma faces Jarred Cosart, arguably the top arm in Houston's farm system.

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Aaron Sanchez, RHP (Blue Jays) -- Dunedin vs. Bradenton (High-A)

After Toronto unloaded a number of their most touted prospects this past winter, Sanchez (3.07 ERA, 29 IP, 18 H, 28 SO, 9 BB) has become the jewel of the farm system. Despite being only 20-years-of-age, he works with three pitches -- a mid-90's fastball, a curve, and a changeup -- all of which can flash plus. Don't expect him to work deep into the game: the Jays are incrementally increasing his workload, and he's probably only going to throw five innings or so.

If Sanchez...

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Prospect Pitch: May 6, 2013

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-05-05
If you like watching short pitchers who throw hard, Monday is your day to fire up MiLB television. Starts from Jameson Taillon, Trevor Bauer, and a certain big fella in Clinton highlight the action.

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Victor Sanchez, RHP (Mariners) -- Bowling Green @ Clinton (A)

Sanchez(2.25 ERA, 12 IP, 9 H, 6 SO, 2 BB) makes his third minor league start of the season for Clinton. He works with a low-90's fastball, a changeup with good arm side run, and a developing slider.

Just as important as the arsenal are Sanchez's mechanics. He's a big boy -- only 6-feet tall but over 250 pounds -- and it will be important for him to maintain consistency with his delivery throughout starts this season.


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M's middle infield

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-05-04
Hypothetical question: How valuable does a player's defense need to be for managers, teams, and fans to overlook his offensive futility?

For the Seattle Mariners, that's less of a hypothetical and more of a practical question when it comes to shortstop Brendan Ryan. Although he was snubbed for a Gold Glove award in 2012 (likely for his slash line of .194/.277/.278), Ryan ranks with the elite middle defenders in Major League Baseball, snagging the 2012 Fielding Bible award for most valuable defensive shortstop.

According to Baseball-Reference's valuations, Ryan's worth can be spliced into oWAR (offensive wins above replacement) and dWAR (defensive wins above replacement). By the first metric, Ryan's efforts at the plate have cost the Mariners half of a win this season (-0.5 oWAR). By the second, his acrobatics on the field have ensured the M's half of a win (0.5 dWAR).

Without delving too much into the nuanced calculations of WAR, it's worth noting that the two stats do not cancel each other out. FanGraphs lists Ryan's overall value at -0.5 WAR, with a heavier emphasis on offensive contributions than defensive prowess.

While turning double plays and harnessing line drives, Ryan has struggled to keep his batting average above the Mendoza Line. Manager Eric Wedge felt that the solution was to bench his best defensive asset for utility player Robert Andino, but rescinded his comments -- and his decision -- following last Sunday's game. As report...

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Prospect Pitch: May 5, 2013

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-05-04
Sunday's menu includes a number of top pitching prospects taking the ball and a few key pitcher-batter matchups, particularly in Triple-A.

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Alex Meyer, RHP (Twins) vs. Brandon Workman, RHP (Red Sox)  – New Britain at Portland (AA)

Meyer (2-1, 2.57 ERA, 28 IP, 26 H, 34 SO, 11 B) is the top pitching prospect in the Twins' organization if you ask me, despite Kyle Gibson's presence in Triple-A. His control is a bit spotty, but the fastball is up to 97 with plane and the slider is a future out pitch.

Workman (4-0, 2.73 ERA, 29 2/3 IP, 15 H, 634 SO, 6 BB) doesn't have the raw stuff of Meyer, but pounds the strike zone with quality offerings from a low-90s fastball that ahs touched 94 in the past to a useful cutter and an average curveball.

Meyer's mat...

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Prospect Pitch: May 4, 2013

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-05-04
Saturday offers a little bit of everything – pitching duels, stacked lineups, top hitting prospects and even two pitchers with the last name Winkler in the California League. Sit back, enjoy your weekend and know there’s some amazing minor league baseball on tap.

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Michael Wacha, RHP (Cardinals) – Memphis at Omaha (AAA)

Wacha (3-0. 1.86 ERA, 29 IP, 19 H, 15 K, 11 BB) – a two-year college pitcher at Texas A&M – climbed the ranks of Minnesota’s organization quickly in 2012. Striking out an egregious 17.1 batters per nine innings pitched – the right-hander receives praise for his ability to pair his fastball and changeup together. Hitting 97 MPH out of the bullpen in 2012 and hovering around 95 MPH from the rotation – it’s a wonder he wasn’t drafted higher – being selected 19th overall.
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Figuring out Felix Hernandez

By: Adam H. Wong on 2013-05-03
When you start a new job, you will often receive a handbook on how to perform in your position. This is how you get it done, you do things "by the book" and so forth. Your expectations are set as soon as you set foot into your new role.

You come to find out -- some find out sooner than others -- that there is an official way to do things, and the right way to do things, and those things may not have much in common. You may feel at odds with your peers and your supervisors. Take the advice of people who have been performing this job for years and know how to be efficient and successful, or follow the rules.

Felix Hernandez has been pitching in the big leagues since 2005, or, for those who need a reminder, since he was 19 years old. Even before Felix was legally able to purchase alcohol in the United States, he has had a high visibility job, and recently a part of his performance has come under some scrutiny.

Baseball fans associate ace pitchers with high velocity, so it makes sense that Felix's declining velocity has raised concerns over the past few years.

I wanted to look into the 2010 Cy Young Award winner's velocity issues and figure out what exactly is going on. So, I started at Fangraphs, and found velocity data dating back to 2007.  Let's take a look at Felix's average fastball velocity, coupled with the minimum and maximum velocities from each year following.


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Prospect Pitch: May 3, 2013

By: Michael Schwartze on 2013-05-03
Friday’s schedule features several interesting prospects facing off against one another. There are interesting pitcher against pitcher duels and some exciting pitcher against batter matchups.

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Kyle Zimmer, RHP (Royals) -- Wilmington at Lynchburg (A+)

Zimmer (0-2, 4.76 ERA, 22 2/3 IP, 19 H, 34 SO, 9 BB) has had mixed results so far on the young season and is coming off one of his worst starts on the year. Last year’s fifth round draft pick will look to bounce back against a Lynchburg lineup that is hitting .251/.332/.415 on the year. Zimmer has posted impressive strikeout numbers on the year but has yet to have an outing longer than six innings.


...

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Franklin's timeline

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-05-02
This week's M's Prospect Notebook includes notes on Nick Franklin's ascent to the big leagues, and I sat down with the Seattle Mariners No. 3 prospect and asked the questions on his defense, batting right-handed and how soon he might hit The Show.

Also are notes on left-hander James Gilheeney, right-handed reliever Danny Farquhar and the two Almontes, as well as a recap of how the system's Top 10 prospects have fared as April turns to May.

To check out the full report, subscribers can click here.

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Prospect Pitch: May 2, 2013

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-05-02
Thursday's games pit several intriguing prospects against one another. Pitcher against batter, pitcher dueling pitcher and an experienced lineup versus a young but advanced prospect.

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Sean Gilmartin, LHP (Braves) -- Gwinnett at Scranton (AAA)

Gilmartin (2-0, 2.40 ERA, 30 IP, 30 H, 14 K, 13 BB) is coming off his longest outing of the season, an eight-inning effort against Billy Hamilton and the Bats of Louisville (Reds). While he remains unscathed in the win-loss department -- stranding 82.5 percent of runners -- he has not been overwhelming, allowing 44 base runners in 30 innings worked.

Scranton's roster includes just two players -- Melky Mesa and Zollo Almonte -- on the Yankees 40-man roster. Addison Maruszak can heap damage on a left-handed pitcher -- hitting .309/.374/.535 versus lef...

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Rookie Watch: Cingrani a key for Reds

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-04-30
The 2013 season is still in its infancy but a number of key prospects have already been called upon from the minor leagues, including the Cincinnati Reds' Tony Cingrani, who has played a pivotal role in the organization's early successes.

Let's check in on him, as well as some other key rookies:

Tony Cingrani, LHP -- Cincinnati Reds
Tony Cingrani has always interested talent evaluators because of his track record of success as a starter in professional baseball despite his reliance, more or less, on one pitch. In his first two starts of the season, the southpaw has relied on his 92 mph fastball 78 percent of the time while sprinkling in his breaking ball and changeup.

Cingrani, 23, is a bit of a trick-pitch pitcher because there is nothing special (in a good or bad way) about the velocity or movement of his heater. His fastball plays up because of his deception -- hitters just don't pick up the pitch well out of his hand, as his low-three-quarter arm slot brings the ball out from behind his shoulder.

In his third big league start, Cingrani did a nice job of keeping hitters off-balance by moving his fastball around the zone, consistently going in and out, up and down. His small-sample strikeout rate of 14 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is...

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Maurer working the pace

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-04-30
In a city confounded within a culture of losing, optimism is rare and struggles are magnified by the time individuals have committed to their club. Whether a pitcher is 22 or 32, establishing yourself is tantamount to turning the ball club around or being considered part of that culture. This hurdle recently fell onto the Seattle Mariners second-youngest roster member, right-hander Brandon Maurer.

Straight from Double-A, the M's 6-foot-5 right-hander struggled out of the gate and it was immediate -- via social media -- that Maurer's involvement in Major League operations was premature, in line with previous talent evaluation that contributed to Seattle being in their current state of rebuild.

Chased in his major league debut and in his following outing versus the lowly Houston Astros -- who have victimized Seattle as of late -- the comments poured in of Seattle's ineptitude for talent in choosing Maurer over their stable of young minor league arms. But Maurer has one thing – more than most -- that is an ingredient in the glue that sticks young pitchers to active rosters; resolve.

Last Thursday, Maurer took the mound, far removed from the criticism that clung to him through his first two weeks in 'The Show'. Facing the slumping -- but dangerous -- Los Angeles Angels, the right-hander theoretically cemented his place in the Mariners rotation as other pieces of the organization's roster begin to break down.

The 2012 South...

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Prospect Pitch: May 1, 2013

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-30
Wednesday's games boasts a handful of pitcher-batter matchups to keep an eye on, a few pitching prospects are going toe-to-toe, and a number of notable talents take the mound.

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Sonny Gray, RHP (Athletics) -- Sacramento at Fresno (AAA)

Gray (2-1, 3.27 ERA, 22 IP, 24 H, 19 SO, 10 BB) has been solid yet unspectacular this season, displaying inconsistent control, but in all fairness, two of his outings occurred in extreme hitter's ballparks in Reno and Las Vegas and he battled well just to get through five innings.

Fresno's lineup is veteran laced, which is tougher than if it boasted several prospects, so Gray's work is cut out for him, as those veterans, such as Todd Linden, will make him throw strikes.

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Hisashi Iwakuma and Missed Bats

By: Casey McLain on 2013-04-28
After years of having solid pitching and a terrible offense, so far in 2013 the Mariners haven't been very good on either side of the ball. Of course, this comes with the standard caveats of small sample size that all early season analysis comes with. For example, Joe Saunders probably won't end the season with an ERA over six, and even his 4.92 xFIP that suggests he's been unlucky to this point in the season should regress closer to his career average of 4.49.

And while Felix Hernandez has been as good or better than ever to start this season, the real story of the pitching staff so far has been Hisashi Iwakuma. In Hernandez the Mariners have gotten exactly what we as fans have grown to respect: utter dominance, animated celebrations, and perhaps the most smiles of any person in the world that has a neck tattoo. Iwakuma on the other hand, is a relative mystery, and so far this season has been a tremendous surprise.

The thing is, we don't know a lot about Iwakuma, and every piece of data tied to Iwakuma comes with some question of validity. When Iwakuma first came to Seattle -- anecdotally at least -- he had some issues with MLB style conditioning. Then he spent a huge chunk of the season as a struggling reliever, only showing long-term promise in his 95.0 innings pitched as a starter.

Then coming into this season we've heard enough about blisters to start an amateur dermatology business. Iwakuma has missed out on some innings because of a blister on th...

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Concern for Hultzen

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-28
When word broke earlier this week that left-hander Danny Hutlzen was scratched from his start in Las Vegas after he failed to get loose in warm-ups, the first thought that came to my mind was "let's just hope it's not serious."

The Seattle Mariners later announced Hultzen had tendonitis and a strain of his left rotator cuff. Two weeks was the initial prognosis. It could have been worse. The tests could have revealed some sort of issue with the labrum, which is potentially much more serious.

Still, I think it's time to be concerned with Hultzen, particularly after MLB.com's Greg Johns reported Sunday that the southpaw will miss a month, rather than two weeks.

I'm not suggesting it's freak-out time, since there's certainly a chance that all Hultzen needs is a little time off and some regimented rehab and he'll be back at it in June -- which, by the way, absolutely pushes his ETA for the big leagues back at least 4-6 weeks, perhaps more.

Here's why I can't shove this news in the Nothing Drawer:

Hultzen employs an unorthodox delivery where his front foot lands to the first-base side of what would be considered in line, or lined up to the center of his body and with his back foot as it pushes off the pitching rubber. Generally this is referred as cross-body.

What this does is generate the need for the...

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Scouting Red Sox Prospects

By: Hudson Belinsky on 2013-04-28
The minor league season is in full swing. I've had my eyes on a few prospects in my neck of the woods, and had discussions with scouts about some of the more interesting prospects they've seen as of late. Here's a look at some of the most notable players I've learned about recently.

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox (Double-A Portland)
He's probably not a shortstop, but it wouldn't be crazy if he ended up there. Right now, he looks lazy at the position. His pre-pitch set-up is almost non-existent; most infielders are on their toes and shift their weight in one direction or the other based on the position of the catcher's glove. Bogaerts just hangs out, almost standing straight as he waits for something to happen.

It seems like a very correctable issue, but then there's the issue of how the 20-year-old's body will mature. Another 15 pounds of muscle on his frame could force him away from the position. Bogaerts has a plus arm, and could be a fine third baseman, where his bat should play.

I only saw a handful of at-bats from Bogaerts, and he struggled mightily. A solid-average off-speed offering would induce a swing-and-miss. I usually don't worry about prospects that struggle to barrel plus-or-better breaking balls. The ones who struggle to track even fringy offerings into the bat cause concern. Bogaerts has a gorgeous swing and explosive bat speed, but the adjustments he makes this season will be very telling about his future.
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Staying the course as fans

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-04-27
Baseball, at its root, should be enjoyable. This is the underlying philosophy that drives fans to the ballpark -- on a Sunday afternoon, there is little more appealing than sitting in the King's Court, cheering Felix Hernandez as he strikes out 12 of the 2012 World Series contenders.

What happens when baseball ceases to be enjoyable? Not four weeks after Opening Day, the Mariners boast a 9-16 record, have become the punching bag of the Houston Astros, and have media and fans clamoring for the heads of managers Eric Wedge and Jack Zduriencik.

The uproar over these latest offensive woes is not unexpected, nor is it unwarranted. Still, it's worth remembering that there were nine other seasons when this club suffered 15 or more losses to start the season.

While the 2013 Mariners weathered two three-game losing streaks, the 1979 Mariners rewarded their newly-acquired fanbase with 11 consecutive losses. The 2013 Mariners currently average 3.2 runs per game and have allowed their opponents 110 runs in return. The 1986 Mariners averaged 1.66 runs per game, while the 2011 Mariners allowed 143 runs in their first 24 games. This year's version have won only nine game thus far -- the 1981 Mariners won just six.

With 137 games left to play in the season, this is not the time to go cliff jumping. I'm not here to propose any quick fixes for the team, nor can I tell Mariners fans to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that Franklin Gutierrez will someday sta...

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M's Prospect Notebook: Bats to watch

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-25
This week's M's Prospect Notebook includes scouting notes on two hitters to watch in the Seattle Mariners farm system. Neither ranked in the Prospect Insider Top 10 for 2013, but both are off to strong starts, both statistically and via the scouting eye.

Also included -- A Top 10 Wrap, plus five prospects who have helped themselves the most.

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Montero needs to dictate terms

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-04-25
It's been a bumpy inception to everyday Major League baseball for the former top-prospect Jesus Montero. In his third Major League season, following a torrid Spring, frustration continues to grow around the lackluster production of the Seattle Mariners right-handed hitting catcher. Touted so highly as early as 20-years-old in Triple-A, his production seems a bit of a head scratcher, but really it's not that complicated. Montero isn't playing his game at the plate, he is playing into the hands of opposing teams and not dictating terms.

Let me explain.

The Scene
Date: April 6, 2013
Location: US Cellular Field, Chicago
Pitcher: Addison Reed, RHP
Batter: Montero

It’s the top of the ninth inning and the Seattle Mariners trail the Chicago White Sox by a single run. Lacking a left-handed bat off the bench to face Chicago’s right-handed closer, manager Eric Wedge opts to pinch-hit Jesus Montero in place of shortstop Brendan Ryan.

Montero jumps out to an early 2-0 count, an instance he hit .333 in last season. But what entails the remainder of the at-bat -- culminating in a swinging strikeout -- are three sliders in succession...

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Prospect Development

By: Josh Dobner on 2013-05-07
While much of the current Seattle Mariners player development division did not arrive until following the 2011 season, the current regime in charge of baseball operations took the reins in 2009. Inheriting an organization – and fan base – far removed from the magic of the clubs record-tying 2001 season, instead being handed the task of presiding over a minor league system rated three times in the previous four seasons as among the ten thinnest in Major League Baseball.
While major league results have varied – organizational and player – system depth, near its lowest peak in team history just a half decade ago has been resurrected.

However – along the way, once the initial hurdle has been cleared – the mission statement becomes flipping that system depth into major league performance (I.E. wins). While much of the talent that has entered the organization over this time-frame is still a season or two from stamping their major league passport, it’s the players that have arrived which are creating the largest question in regards to this regime. That question; Are the Mariners bad at developing players?

At 75 games below .500 – dating back to the 2009 season – an assumption hangs over this regime that the performance of the major league club is directly related to their ability to develop talent. While there have been success – and unsuccessful – stories, the issue with this assumption begins in the question itself. The real question; Are the Mariners any worse th...

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It gets worse

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-24
The Seattle Mariners are struggling, it's no secret. They are 8-15 and haven't shown signs of any positive consistency. They haven't scored runs at an acceptable rate for so long, some fans don't remember what that was like ... way back in the day.

The 2013 Seattle Mariners and how many wins is possible is not the biggest concern the team should have, however.

I get that 90-100 losses is a disaster and could, and should, mean Jack Zduriencik's job, but the whole idea this year was that they'd take a step forward from 75 wins, perhaps getting to 80-82 range, and if they are lucky 85 or 86, maybe make a mid-summer deal that helps the club next year, and then make a few impact additions when it's cold outside in order to come into 2014 with a legitimate chance at 90 or more wins and legitimate contention.

For that to be possible, the young bats -- the ones that did not hit last year -- have to hit. At least to average levels, and at least two of them. Without that to lean on moving forward, the whole model is as broke as a wannabe mime working for free in the Rose City near Rasheed Wallace's house.

That is what the club's biggest concern is; if their current issues continue, 2014 looks like a lost season, too, because no GM can be expected to make that many trades or free agent signings to fill all those holes to jump from a team that wins 70ish games to 90 or more, particularly when he's battling against geography, a losing culture and the money of...

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Shortstop can't be the only move

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-24
As I am sure you have all heard by now, Robert Andino has replaced Brendan Ryan as the Seattle Mariners' starting shortstop. There are all kinds of things wrong with that decision if it's based on performance -- Ryan isn't the problem, Andino isn't the answer -- but that move in and of itself is also not the problem.

The world knows the problem is offense in general, and specifically at first base, second base, catcher and outfield. Because of that, the change at shortstop cannot be the lone move.

I am wholeheartedly an advocate of avoiding early-season, knee-jerk reactions in either direction; don't get too high after three weeks, don't get too down. That goes for Ryan's .145 batting average, the struggles of Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero, and any other trends good or bad that may be floating around the roster.

Here we sit on April 24 after 22 (soon to be 23) games and the M's are 8-14, well on their way to 8-15 as I type this. Justin Smoak enters his fifth plate appearance Wednesday with a .228 batting average and two extra-base hits in 23 games. Sure, he's shown signs of something a little better over the past week -- 8-for-31 coming into Wednesday -- but that's .258 with three extra-base hits -- one home run.

If that were the centerfielder or the shortstop or catcher, not so glaring. But Smoak, obviously, is the first baseman. Two of those XBHs are against the Astros, who aside from Norris and Harrell, have a load of Triple-A qu...

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Rookie Watch: Adams, Gillaspie thrive

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-04-23
As April's final week approaches, a few rookies have held their hot starts over beyond the 15-day mark. But not all of them.

Let's check in on a few trends.

The Good

Matt Adams, 1B -- St. Louis Cardinals

A strong spring showing by Matt Adams convinced management to make room for the hulking slugger on the club's 25-man roster, despite the presence of fellow first baseman Allen Craig (who recently signed a five-year, $31 million contract extension). The rookie's impressive start to the regular season -- which includes a batting average of more than .500 in his first eight games -- could convince manager Mike Matheny to find more playing time in the outfield for the versatile Craig.

Adams offers a rare combination for a slugger with his ability to hit for both power and average. He controls the strike zone well and typically keeps his strikeout rate lower than most power hitters. The organization to set to receive a solid amount of value from this former 23rd round draft pick, although the contracts to corner outfielders Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran will ensure Craig sees a fair amount of time at first base, limiting Adams' impact in the short term (barring injuries).

Conor Gillaspie, 3B -- Chicago White Sox

The White Sox acquired Conor Gillaspie -- who was out of minor league options -- from the San Francisco Giants late in spring training to help fill a void at the hot corn...

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Gutierrez's new role

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-23
Seattle Mariners centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez is a good player. He's a terrific defender at a premium position -- perhaps the best any of us have ever seen there -- and he's adequate at the plate. He's fundamentally sounds, shows good instincts on the bases and has the overall baseball skills and acumen to be consistent at all of the above.

The problem is, despite his abilities, he's not very valuable to the baseball team. Sadly, Franklin Gutierrez cannot stay healthy.

Why this is, I don't know. I'm not anything remotely near any kind of doctor or trainer. One thing I wonder, however, is if any medications or diet alterations as a result of Gutierrez's digestive problems may have impacted him physically to the point where he's now as injury prone as any player in baseball.

I haven't the foggiest whether that's possible, to what extent and how that might work, but it's something I thought about after Monday night's game.

The more pressing question for the team is what to do in the outfield now that Gutierrez is likely headed for the disabled list again. Carlos Peguero appears headed for Houston, as he was pulled out of the Tacoma lineup during the Rainiers game in Salt Lake. Peguero is one of two obvious options in Tacoma, Eric Thames being the other.

Without going into too much detail on two players...

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Draft Weekly: M's could eye Judge

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-22
The Seattle Mariners select No. 12 in June's draft and have been busy on the scouting trail trying to figure out who their top 12 players are and which of them will be available when their turn pops up in six and a half weeks.

Fresno State's Aaron Judge is a possibility.

Judge is a very large athlete at 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, but is athletic and shows instincts playing center field for the Bulldogs. Yes, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound centerfielder.

His value, however, is in his power bat. He generates plus bat speed and during batting practice is a sight to see. He's had issues, however, displaying that same power in games. He has improved in that area this season, tallying seven long balls and 20 total extra-base hits, surpassing his home run effort from last year (4) and equaling, already, his extra-base hits total.

The swing is fine, although it is long -- difficult for it to be short, due to his height and length of arms -- and he does have to cover a big area, vertically, with a true strike zone from the knees to somewhere just above the waist, in most cases.

He uses a short load that may help him with contact, but an adjustment to aid in his attempts to create loft and better leverage may produce the fly-ball power that turns him into a 30-homer type.

Developing that part of the swing takes time -- it's often the last element to blossom in many good hitters, including Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez and Allen Craig.

He's batting...

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Musical Relievers

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-04-20
Spring has not been kind to the Seattle Mariners' pitching staff. Following a 16-9 rout by the Houston Astros (an odd sentence to write at any point during the season), Stephen Pryor's week-old shoulder injury, and a 14-inning duel with the Detroit Tigers earlier this week, the trips between Tacoma's Cheney Stadium and Safeco Field have been frequent ones.

With the next off day still a week and a half away, manager Eric Wedge has been dutifully spinning the carousel of Triple-A relievers, but any further additions will require a 40-man roster move. In the past week, the club has called up two newcomers, southpaw Bobby LaFromboise and right-hander Yoervis Medina.

LaFromboise made his major league debut last week but was demoted to Triple-A again after three outings in Seattle, allowing two hits, two earned runs, three walks, and five strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings pitched.

In his place, the Mariners selected Medina and later recalled Hector Noesi to round out the bullpen. Medina was solid last year in the Southern League in terms of results, racking up 77 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings for the Jackson Generals. He replaced Pryor, who tore the latissimus dorsi muscle in his right shoulder on Sunday. Pryor is facing a long rehab stint if the tear proves to be more severe.

Medina had a rough landing himself, struggling with control in his first outing -- not surprisingly, as he issued 35 walks a year ago -- as he faced a bases-loaded jam and the heart of th...

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SPSL Prospect Report

By: PI Staff on 2013-04-18
Prospect Insider's Michael Schwartze and Jason A. Churchill have driven around the region to see the local prospects this spring, including a couple of trips to the south sound area -- Puyallup, specifically, to catch a crops of talents in the South Puget Sound League.

The Rogers High School roster boasts three solid prospects in Stefan Van Horn, Logan Ice and Michael Sexton. Emerald Ridge's Garret Anderson and Kyle Rossman are also on the radar.

We'll profile 2015 prospect Brendan Illies of Puyallup High School after the 2013 Draft, and the two top prospects in the state for this year's class -- Kentwood's Reese McGuire and Wenatchee's Dustin Driver -- next month as the draft gets closer.

Garrett Anderson, SS -- Emerald Ridge
Anderson, a right-handed batter, stands just 5-foot-9 and weighs in around 165 pounds, but is as fundamentally sound as any prep player I've seen this season. He'll likely move to second base immediately upon his arrival at the University of Washington, where he'll have adequate range to go with his polished footwork, average arm strength and quick release.

At the plate Anderson employs a short swing and uses the entire field. He handles the bat well and shows quick hands on pitches middle-in.

There's not much stride and an abbreviated load, which helps him let the ball travel deep and pick up pitch types.

Anderson is a Day 3 talent, but could be a terrific pickup for Coach Meggs at UW.


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Desert Challenge

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-04-17


Top prospects Mike Zunino, Danny Hultzen, Nick Franklin, James Paxton, and Stefen Romero are on the roster in Triple-A Tacoma. Taijuan Walker, Brad Miller, John Hicks and Jack Marder, among others, started the 2013 season in Double-A Jackson. Two levels down, Class-A Clinton has a number of intriguing prospects, highlighted by left-hander Tyler Pike and infielder Timothy Lopes. Collectively, that group makes up the top 10 players remaining in the minors from Prospect Insider's Mariners Top 50 prospect rankings.

As a result, not one of the top 10 prospects in the system is playing for High Desert at the moment. In fact, the highest ranked player from PI's prospect rankings suiting up for the Mavericks right now is shortstop Chris Taylor at No. 35.

It isn't just this year's Mavericks team that missed out on hosting Seattle's top prospects: Zunino, Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker skipped the level entirely, while Franklin, Romero, and Miller all spent less than a full year in the league. On the surface, it seems strange. The Mariners have amassed one of the best collections of minor league talent in baseball, and yet the assemblage has spent hardly any time in Advanced-A bal...

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Rookie Watch

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-04-16
It's still fewer than three weeks into the big-league season, but it's never too early to make a first impression, and the 2013 rookie crops has done so with varying results.

The Good

Jose Fernandez, RHP -- Miami Marlins
Eyebrows were raised all around baseball when Miami announced that Jose Fernandez was being chosen to help fill the big league starting rotation, which had been beset by injuries. Just (allegedly) 20 years old, the Cuba native had yet to pitch above A-ball when it was announced that he would become a big leaguer in 2013. He features at least three potentially-plus pitches in a mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup. He also has a slider that helps round out his four-pitch repertoire.

Two games into his MLB career, though, Fernandez has quieted some of the snickers around baseball. He's allowed just one run on five hits and three walks in 11 innings of work. He's also struck out 13 batters. Clearly, the scouting reports on the young pitcher have not made there way around...

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FREE One-Night Fantasy Baseball

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-15
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I'm going to draft my own team, as are some of the other staffers here at Prospect Insider. I don't play standard fantasy baseball, but I love this game and will be playing right alone with you this week.

Trash talking is welcome. Click Full Story to see my roster.

My Roster:


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Ackley alternative

By: Casey McLain on 2013-04-14
Some in the media have begun to call for Dustin Ackley to be sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. That of course, is not to say that a demotion of Ackley is imminent, or even under consideration at this point, just to be clear.

Triple-A is widely considered a better place for a hitter to work on elements of their swing and approach than at the big league level. Sending Ackley to the minors would likely create some waves, and perhaps ostensibly motivate players at all levels of the organization fighting for a roster spot.

Ackley is not only a high draft pick, but also a player in which the Mariners have invested a lot of resources, both financially, and as a it relates to his move to second base.

To show that even Ackley must be accountable for a lack of production could light a fire under the finish line of the digestive system of Justin Smoak, Kyle Seager, Vinnie Catricala, or anyone else not performing. It also may do none of those things, but it's hard to argue that removing Ackley's presently-unproductive bat would hurt the team.

Perhaps the most obvious choice to replace Ackley would be Nick Franklin. Since he torched Class-A Clinton at age 19 analysts have been glowing about Franklin's bat, and fans have been intrigued by when it might reach Safeco Fi...

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East coast scouting notes

By: Hudson Belinsky on 2013-04-13
Last weekend I had the opportunity to hit the road and get my eyes on a handful of prospects. It was still pretty chilly up here in the northeast, but my opening weekend for this minor league season was a success. Here are some notes on some of the top prospects I saw.

Allen Webster, RHP, Red Sox (Triple-A Pawtucket) 
This was the second time I saw Webster. The first time, it was a gorgeous day in Fort Myers, Florida. This time is was a chilly night in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Given the conditions, it made sense that everything was a little bit softer. Webster’s fastball sat 92-94 and touched 95. He wasn't able to consistently run the pitch to the arm side, but he did show the ability to do it a few times throughout the outing.

The slider, which I salivated over in Spring Training, would still flash plus, but it wasn't the same. The pitch had a little less movement, it wasn't as sharp, and he threw it more in the mid-80s, rather than 88-89, where he threw it last time. Webster used his changeup, but it wasn't an out pitch. He can get good fade on the offering, but the development of that pitch could be the difference maker for Webster.

Overall, Webster worked through a solid outing without his best stuff. It'd be easy to get lost in the stuff being down, but the right-hander worked through his struggles and still missed bats and generated weak contact. He might no...

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Paxton, Zunino on Opening Night

By: Michael Schwartze on 2013-04-13
Join the Prospect Insider staff at Cheney Stadium June 2 and August 2 to support two local non-profit organizations. The first 100 to buy tickets ($15 apiece) will also reserve a spot at the pre-game festivities with the staff of PI and a special guest. Click here to get in.

With the minor league season in full swing, the Tacoma Rainiers held their 2013 home opener Friday night after opening the season on an eight game road trip.

The weather was ugly -- and I mean ugly. The rain began early in the afternoon and continued to come down the entire game until the umpires decided enough was enough and suspended the game with two outs in the top of the fifth inning. The Rainiers trailed 5-0 after Salt Lake put up a five spot that inning and the game was only four outs away from being official. Now the game will be continued Saturday, picking back up at 5 pm, followed by a seven-inning game directly after.

Despite the short game, fans were still able to get some looks at a few of the top prospects in the M's system: James Paxton, Mike Zunino and Nick Franklin. Below are some notes on those players from this game

James Paxton, LHP
Paxton was taking on a prospect-less Salt Lake lineup where there was not a single player under the age of 26. He cruised through the first four innings, needing...

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M's outfield a bit messy

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-04-12
The night that "King" Felix Hernandez made his return to Seattle was supposed to be a triumphant one. Over 22,000 fans -- double the number that showed up on Tuesday and Wednesday -- arrived to welcome the 27-year-old ace, sporting bright yellow t-shirts and "K" cards that have become characteristic of the special treatment Hernandez receives at Safeco Field these days.

Instead of celebrating the Venezuelan native's hundredth career win, however, the Seattle Mariners found themselves nursing a three-game losing streak and another injured outfielder.

In the seventh inning, Michael Morse faced Texas Rangers' right-hander Tanner Scheppers. On the second pitch, Morse fouled a 96 m.p.h. fastball off of his right hand, causing immediate swelling and prompting trainer Rick Griffin to interrupt the at-bat. He was soon removed from the game after getting plunked in the shoulder and weathering a non-displaced fracture in his right pinky finger.

Barring complications, Morse could return to the lineup as soon as Sunday. During the postgame presser, manager Eric Wedge announced that the outfielder could be ready to go in the next 3-7 days. Right now, the plan is one of cautious optimism -- hoping that Morse can dodge the disabled list in order for the club to avoid making any unnecessary 40-man roster moves.

The bad news is that this leaves the Mariners a little short-handed over the next couple of weeks. Michael Saunders collided with the right field fence dur...

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No Zunino yet

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-11

Each week, Prospect Insider will bring you thoughts, analysis, scouting notes and video of the top prospects in baseball. Each Wednesday (except for this week), we'll cover the best talents in the Seattle Mariners' farm system.

Yes, Seattle Mariners' No. 1 prospect Mike Zunino has crushed the baseball at every stop. He manhandled the Northwest League for a month, tore up the Southern League for a few weeks, was solid in the fall league and has now eaten alive the Pacific Coast League for about a week. It's a collection of small samples that all alone mean very little, but while recognizing it's early in 2013, it's clear last June's No. 3 overall pick is a very good prospect, and likely to see the big leagues this season.

That time, however, has not come.

The M's should not call up Zunino right now, or anytime real soon. Whether or not Jesus Montero performs or not should never be a factor. Zunino will be ready when he's ready, and it's my opinion that he is not.

I've seen very little of Zunino live just yet -- that path starts Friday night in Tacoma -- so I am not basing this off any sort of scouting or similar analysis. Zunino passes all of those eye tests. I'm basing this on simple but absolute factors.

Zunino has not struggled for even...

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Series Preview: Mariners vs. Rangers

By: Alex Carson on 2013-04-11
Hey, do you like baseball? Do you also hate homelessness? Well, you're in luck. On June 2, you can join the staff of Prospect Insider for a pre-game party (for the first 100 ticket buyers), watch the Rainiers game and help beat homelessness. This is a great deal and it’ll be fun. Click here to get in.

Well, that certainly isn't how anyone figured the Astros series would go. It's not just losing two-of-three games. It's how they lost, which I will not be reminding you of. The stats are out there on the internet if you missed it and morbid curiosity is filling your soul.

So now the Texas Rangers roll into town for a four-game series.

Know Your Enemy
Normally -- when a good team comes to town while you're barely picking yourself up off the floor -- it can seem daunting, but these Rangers might not be quite the Rangers of a season ago. They lost OF Josh Hamilton, of course, but now they're also dealing with some injury issues. Left-hander Matt Harrison just landed on the disabled list with a back strain and will miss his start against Felix Hernandez Thursday night. Right-hander Yu Darvish left his last start with a blister on one of his fingers, so that will be something to watch Friday night. Right-handers Colby Lewis, Neftali Feliz and Joakim Soria and left-hander Martin Perez are all also on the shelf.

Key off-season signings for the Rangers included Soria...

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How Harang fits

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-11
Join the Prospect Insider staff at Cheney Stadium June 2 and August 2 to support two local non-profit organizations. The first 100 to buy tickets ($15 apiece) will also reserve a spot at the pre-game festivities with the staff of PI, and a special guest. Click here to get in

The Seattle Mariners have acquired right-hander Aaron Harang. This comes on the heels of two straight poor outings by the club's No. 4 and 5 starters.

First of all, let's make one thing clear: Harang isn't what I would call a significant acquisition. He's a veteran that has spent the past 10 years in the National League posting what amounts to league average or slightly better results.

He's now 34 -- 35 next month -- and certainly on the downside. He posted a 4.14 FIP a year ago in Los Angeles, but may have been among the more randomly lucky arms in baseball.

The Mariners see a need for a veteran arm with the struggles Brandon Maurer has had and perhaps Blake Beavan's outing Wednesday night pushed them over the top.

Beavan's new delivery hasn't helped him in the slightest and may have interrupted the somewhat reliable back-end momentum he has going last year.

With Danny Hultzen and James Paxton needing season in Tacoma...

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A look at Blake Beavan's new delivery

By: Adam H. Wong on 2013-04-10
Join the Prospect Insider staff at Cheney Stadium June 2 and August 2 to support two local non-profit organizations. The first 100 to buy tickets ($15 apiece) will also reserve a spot at the pre-game festivities with the staff of PI, and a special guest. Click here to get in

If you're out in the workforce like me, you know that the game is changing. It's no longer just about the skills you've gained or the accolades you've acquired, but it's about "who you know." It's about your network and your social value. So, if you were ever in a job-hunt rut like me, you felt the pressure to try something different, something new. Enter: LinkedIn. A venue for working professionals to vouch for one another. To vouch for each other's network and social value. It's something that's supposed to give you a leg up on the competition.

Going into this season, Blake Beavan decided to try something new. The right-hander tweaked his delivery and now he pitches with a bit more over the top angle rather than a three-quarters arm slot. It makes sense that he felt compelled to change his delivery. His 4.43 ERA in 2012 was quite a bit above the league average of 4.01, and his 3.96 strikeout-per-nine ratio was well below the league average of 7.56.

But Beavan was never known in the big leagues as a strikeout guy. Coming into 2013, a...

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Post debacle reaction

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-09
The Seattle Mariners looked like the Houston Astros Tuesday night at Safeco Field, and against the actual Houston Astros, to boot.

It was the M's whose rookie pitcher struggled immensely. It was the home team that played like they were on the road. It was the Mariners' offense that failed to get anything going versus at two-pitch starter and some fringy relievers.

Is it a big deal? No. Is it anything to worry about? Not in and of itself, no. Let's hit up the questions one by one.

Brandon Maurer
Maurer struggled to command his fastball and slider, catching the middle of the plate a lot, which nullified the fact that his velocity was back to normal at 92-95 mph and the slider was solid in terms of break.

The Astros were a little lucky on a few of the early hits, then hit a couple balls pretty hard and that was that. Maurer's two outs each came via the strikeout, which isn't surprising considering the pitcher or the hitters he faced. He had a bad night, and his inexperience certainly didn't help him. Seven hits, six earned runs and a walk for the rookie.

That's what happened.

What did NOT happen, however, is Maurer finding himself in over his head or unable to handle the pressure. That kind of talk is absurd. ABSURD.

Any talk that he "doesn't belong" is also ridiculous, as is any chatter about the M's needing to send him down and call up Danny Hultzen.

So he's had two bad starts, one bad, one darned bad. F...

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Rookie Watch: NL West

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-04-09
We began our look at potential impact rookies for the 2013 season six weeks ago. Today, we wrap up our six-part series with a look at the National League West rookie class. That particular division features some strong contenders for National League Rookie of the Year, both in the field and on the mound.

Previous Articles:
AL West
NL Central
NL East
AL Central and AL East

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks
Rookie: Tyler Skaggs
Position: Starting pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Patrick Corbin, Randall Delgado
2012 Starter: Joe Saunders (2.4 fWAR)

Buzz
Arizona has some of the best young starting pitching in the game. As a result, Tyler Skaggs finds himself in Triple-A, rather than in the big league rotation -- where he belongs. The young southpaw could see significant time in the Diamondbacks' rotation in 2013 thanks to the lack of established big league starters, with question marks (of varying degrees) surrounding the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley and Pat Corbin. The of...

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Series Preview: M's vs. Astros

By: Alex Carson on 2013-04-08
Join the Prospect Insider staff at Cheney Stadium June 2 and August 2 to support two local non-profit organizations. The first 100 to buy tickets ($15 apiece) will also reserve a spot at the pre-game festivities with the staff of PI, and a special guest. Click here to get in.

The Seattle Mariners end their seven-game road trip to start the year with a not-too-awful but not-too-promising 3-4 record. Two of those losses came to a reigning division champion and the other two came against a team who nearly held the same honor until a late-season slide with the final loss coming in walk-off fashion. The M’s had their chances but came up a bit short. Again, this was not an awful result. But letting wins against contending teams slip away hurts in the long run.

Now, the hapless Houston Astros roll into town to help the M’s unveil their ballpark changes to real life baseball games. You’ll hear lots about the new dimensions of the outfield walls, Edgar’s Cantina in left field, the gigantic scoreboard and Brendan Ryan showing fake bunts.

In the end, none of it really matters to the M’s win-loss record. Michael Morse homers are sure to be Michael Morse homers anywhere and the total number of dingers that wouldn’t have been dingers last year isn’t likely to play too big of a role in the club’s fortunes. The likes of Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley need to get on base more...

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Beyond the elite

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-04-08
The Seattle Mariners have one of the better systems in the game, not only because of the strength of the team's top farmhands, but also because of the organization's depth.

Lurking behind Seattle's top prospects are a number of players who also have the ability to contribute to the big league club at some point. Most of these have plenty of raw skills but find themselves saddled with a blemish or two that holds them back from the top half of prospect rankings.

These players tend to get less attention than the Mike Zunino's or the Taijuan Walker's of the world, and I thought it might be useful to profile a couple of guys who aren't premium names, but could develop into top prospects if everything breaks right.

Below, I've picked one player from each of Seattle's full season affiliates and discussed their track record thus far, while keeping an eye on how they might turn into a bigger part of the organization's picture.

Tacoma Rainiers (AAA): James Paxton, LHP
Paxton is hardly an unknown -- he is a charter member of the "Big 4" -- but he sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with the younger or more polished members of the group. On his day, minor league hitters are no match for Paxton's mid-90's fastball and biting curve. When he throws strikes and flashes an average change up, he's as good as any pitcher in the Mariners system.

The problem for him, of course, has been throwing strikes. At six-foot-four, Paxton has long levers and...

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Event night at Cheney Stadium

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-07
Prospect Insider is very excited to announce its sponsorship, for lack of a better word, of two terrific events at Cheney Stadium that we hope you all decide to become a part of this season.

This Web site has been around, thanks to all of you, for seven years. For those seven years, we've tried to bring entertaining, unique content focused on areas of baseball and the Seattle Mariners organization that no one else brings.

I have been lucky enough to benefit from that personally, and it's changed my life to levels people never believe when I tell the story. Seriously, I tell the story of Jason A. Churchill to anyone who asks or gives me the opportunity. My hair stylist, the dudes at Pennzoil that work on my cars, the grocery store clerk, postal carrier, you name it.

I have been very, very fortunate, and it's time to give back.

Every single day I see people on the street, hungry and homeless. Nobody deserves that. Whether it's bad luck, bad decisions in life or a stretch where one may have simply been a bad person and lost all they had as a result, no human being deserves to sleep on the street and go hungry.

On two dates during the Tacoma Rainiers' season, Prospect Insider has initiated ticket sales through this link to benefit two specific non-profit organizations near and dear to the hearts of m...

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Hultzen fastest out of the gate

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-04-05
There are few events in baseball more exciting than a highly-touted prospect making his major league debut. After months of scanning scouting reports, analyzing inflated minor league statistics, and picking apart top prospect ratings, fans get to revel in the moment when he finally steps off the page and onto the field of a Major League Baseball team.

This season, four of the Seattle Mariners' top pitching prospects are expected to break into the big leagues: Brandon Maurer, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton. Of the three who made their season debuts yesterday, Maurer was the first one out of the gate in the series clincher against the Oakland Athletics.

Coming off of a rough outing against the A's, where Joe Saunders and his bloated 9.00 ERA fell prey to Jed Lowrie and Nate Freiman, the Mariners were looking to recapture the spark that Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma ignited earlier this week.

The 22-year-old right-hander -- eight months removed from his first season in Double-A -- wasn't quite up to the task. Maurer's first time through the lineup was punctuated by Coco Crisp's leadoff single and a two-run jack from Josh Reddick. He salvaged the first few innings by setting down eight consecutive batters and tossing three scoreless frames, but Maurer's final two innings unraveled the Mariners' attempts at evening the score.

Between the 5th and 6th innings, the rookie pitcher allowed six hits, a wild pitch, and three runs, the la...

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M's at White Sox: Series Preview

By: Alex Carson on 2013-04-05
The Seattle Mariners depart Oakland after a 2-2 series draw with the Athletics. Sure, the pessimist will point out that they took a 2-0, fan-base-inspiring series lead, only to drop the next couple that only saw excitement come from a couple Michael Morse dingers. The optimist will recognize that the club took two games from the reigning division champions, in their house. The road trip continues to the Windy City for a three-game set with the Chicago White Sox.

The Sox took two-of-three games from the Kansas City Royals, modestly outscoring their foes 7-5. A sixth inning solo shot by Travis Flowers was all the offense needed to take game one. After a 5-2 win in the middle game, the Sox dropped the finale despite Gordon Beckham’s four hits and outhitting the Royals 8-5. Kansas City mustered just enough timely hitting to take it by a final of 3-1.

Know Your Enemy
After missing the playoffs a season ago, the Pale Hose didn’t make a lot of sexy moves during the winter. They gave a three-year deal to former Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Jeff Keppinger and signed RHP Matt Lindstrom away from Arizona with a one-year pact. Notable losses from their roster were third baseman Kevin Youkilis (NYY), catcher A.J. Pierzynski (TEX), LHP Francisco Liriano (PIT) and RHP Brett Myers (CLE).

The White Sox currently have two players on the 15-day disabled list, LHPs John Danks and Leyson Septimo.

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Looking forward to the season

By: Adam H. Wong on 2013-04-05
I don't go to the movie theatre very often, but when I do, I know what I'm getting into when I buy a ticket to see a flick. I know that before I find my seats I'll be tempted to buy some popcorn and drizzle some golden, melted butter onto the popped kernels. I know that well structured movies will have a beginning, middle, and end. There will be character and plot development. There might be some laughs or some cries. I know that there are going to be ups and downs, and when it's over, I might be left wanting more.

If baseball is anything like going to see a movie, the first four games are like sitting at home thinking about whether or not you're going to see a movie.

The Mariners are 2-2 and it's too early to find some sort of statistical storyline to follow or to find some sort of trend that needs to be bucked. But it's not too early to observe improvements, however minor they may be. Just by looking at the box score we can find some things to laud about the roster changes and some statistics that might be of concern, but a person much smarter than me once said that it's the process over results, and it's in the minutia that we can see a positive outlook of the team.

As a ballclub, the Mariners have 15 walks and 26 strikeouts. Last year, it took the team nine games to accumulate that many walks, but five games to rack up as many strikeouts. But, we are dealing with extremely skewed and small sample sizes. Besides the fact that lack of plate appearances...

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MiLB Opening Day 2013

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-04
Thursday marks Opening Day for Minor League Baseball, which means dozens of top prospects will be in action. Let's take a look at the headliners, starting with the Seattle Mariners' affiliates.

Tacoma Rainiers @ Fresno Grizzlies (Giants)
Danny Hultzen gets the nod versus former Rainiers righty Yusmeiro Petit. The starting lineup includes Mike Zunino, but Nick Franklin has the flu and will not play Thursday. Zunino will be making his Triple-A debut.

The Grizzlies' lineup includes Gary Brown, a speedy leadoff hitter and centerfielder, and they have two arms with upside in closer Heath Hembree and lefty Michael Kickham.

For Mike Curto's sake, let's hope Hultzen and Petit have one of their better days throwing strikes.

Listen to Curto call the action right here

Jackson Generals @ Jacksonville Suns (Marlins)
Taijuan Walker gets the start and will be backed by Brad Miller at shortstop, Jack Marder at second base, John Hicks behind the plate and a loaded outfield that includes Julio Morban, James Jones, Francisco Martinez and Leon Landry.

The Suns' top talents include second baseman Derek Dietrich and outfielder Jake Marisnick, who was traded from Toronto to Miami in the blockbuster deal over the winter.

Listen to the game here.

High Des...

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What to expect from Brandon Maurer

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-04
Right-hander Brandon Maurer will make his first career big league start Thursday afternoon in Oakland. He was terrific in Arizona, pounding the strike zone with a plus fastball and using his plus slider as a strikeout pitch. How will he fare in his debut, and beyond?

Maurer possesses average control and command, which is to say he throws enough strikes and generally stays out of the middle of the strike zone with his entire arsenal. He's not immune to the occasional bouts of inconsistencies, however.

The former 23rd-round pick and only member of the club's 2008 draft class that figures to contribute at the major league level, uses his fastball early and often, going to a two-seam variety to offset the lack of a feel for his other pitches.

He's shown the slider -- a 60 or better grade pitch that he buries at the back foot of left-handed batters and gets righties to chase down and out of the zone -- but he also has flashed an average to slightly above-average curveball in the past, one that projects as very useful.

His changeup is still a work-in-progress, but because his top two offerings are plus, he can get away with a mediocre change, particularly if he's commanding his fastball well.

Maurer has had some issues versus left-handed pitching i...

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MiLB Roster Reactions

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-03
The Seattle Mariners announced the minor league rosters for their four full-season affiliates Wednesday. Get them here.

While there weren't any shocking assignments, there are, as always, some worth discussing.

Taijuan Walker, RHP -- Jackson (AA)
Walker returns to Jackson where he spent all of last season, but one has to wonder if the club was on the fence and made the move as a result of Jeremy Bonderman accepting his assignment.

Walker is just 20 and this is not a setback in any manner, but as I said in the handbook and all spring, he's further away than some want to believe, with fixes on his task list and general work to do to ready himself for the big leagues.

I suspect once the Bonderman situation works itself out, or Danny Hultzen is called up to the majors, Walker will step up to Tacoma.

Vinnie Catricala, 3B -- Jackson (AA)
Catricala struggled at the plate last year and was basically demoted in favor of Rich Poythress, who will play first base for Tacoma with Alex Liddi and Nate Tenbrink handling the hot corner.

Stefen Romero, 2B/3B/LF -- Tacoma (AAA)
Romero is still nursing his side injury but once he returns could either head to Double-A Jackson or may force the issue when it comes to his position. He's played a lot of second base up to this point, but profiles defensively as a third baseman or left fielder.

One thing...

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M's MILB Rosters 2013

By: Hudson Belinsky on 2013-04-03
The rosters are out.


Here they are in simple form:

Tacoma
Pitchers
Logan Bawcom
Jeremy Bonderman
Andrew Carraway
Brian Moran
Danny Farquhar
Steven Hensley
Danny Hultzen
Bobby LaFromboise
Yoervis Medina
D.J. Mitchell
Brian Sweeney
Anthony Vasquez (DL)
Jhonny Nunez
James Paxton
Erasmo Ramirez (DL)

Catchers
Jesus Sucre
Mike Zunino

Infielders
Stefen Romero (DL)
Scott Savastano
Nick Franklin
Carlos Triunfel
Nate Tenbrink
Rich Poythress
Alex Liddi

Outfielders
Eric Thames
Carlos Peguero
Joe Dunigan (DL)
Endy Chavez
Denny Almonte

Jackson
Pitchers
Taijuan Walker
Forrest Snow
Carson Smith
Jandy Sena (DL)
Chance Ruffin
Hector Noesi
Stephen Kohlscheen
Andrew Kittredge
Moises Hernandez (DL)
James Gillheeney
Anthony Fernandez (DL)
Roenis Elias
Tyler Burgoon
Jonathan Arias

Catchers
Brandon Bantz
John Hicks

Infielders
Vinnie Catricala
Leury Bonilla
Brad Miller
Jack Marder
Gabriel Noriega
Steven Proscia

Outfielders
Leon Landry
Abraham Almonte
James Jones
Francisco Martinez
Julio Morban

High Desert
Pitchers
Tyler Blandford (DL)
Matt Brazis
Trevor Miller
Kyle Hunter
Mayckol Guiape
David Colvin
Cameron Hobson
Jordan Shipers
Seon-Gi Kim
G...

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Final camp notes: Red Sox

By: Hudson Belinsky on 2013-04-03
My final camp piece produces notes from several prospects in the Boston Red Sox's farm system, including a couple of shortstops and plenty of arms.

Jose Vinicio, SS
Fun little shortstop. Fluid actions and good arm. Good glove work at shortstop. Switch hitter that looks a little bit better as a right-handed hitter. Not a lot going on in the swing. Short to the ball with quick hands. Sprays the ball to all fields. Power isn't a part of his game presently, but the body is physically immature. Solid-average runner; unclear how speed will be affected by physical maturity. He isn't sushi; has present ability and feel for the game. Could be a serious dude down the line.

Teammates call him "Vinny". Both American and Latin-born players seem to gravitate towards Vinicio, and this was also the case when I saw him early in 2012 when he was among the younger players in the Sally League.

Allen Webster, RHP
Juicy fastball sat 96-97 and touched 99 with legitimate life. Complemented by a wicked slider that worked in the upper 80s with late bite. Slider was nasty, easily plus, could be a 7 offering. Changeup also very strong offering, sitting in the upper 80s with good fade as it entered the zone. Delivery was effortless and easy and he showed the ability to repeat. Could be an absolute stud. Could be a #2 starter and could be in the majors this season.

Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
Straight four-seam fastball was 93-95; big league...

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Rookie Watch: AL Central, East

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-04-02
The buzz surrounding the 2013 rookie class continues to build with news that players such as Miami's Jose Fernandez and Boston's Jackie Bradley have secured big league roles to start the season. Today, we're looking at two American League divisions: the central and the east. The American League Central division features a mix of high-ceiling and near-MLB-ready talents

We've already reviewed three divisions that you can view here:

AL West
NL Central
NL East

Detroit Tigers
Rookie: Bruce Rondon
Position: High-leverage reliever
Roadblock/Competition: Joaquin Benoit/Al Alburquerque
2012 Starter: Jose Valverde (0.9 fWAR)

Buzz
All spring long, the organization touted Rondon as the Tigers' closer for the 2013 season but, when push came to shove, the inexperienced rookie was (rightfully) demoted to the minors. He'll look to sharpen the command of his fastball -- which can touch triple digits -- in hopes of realizing his potential sooner rather than later. The big league club features a collection of veteran, hard-throwing relievers so they really shouldn't have to rush the talented youngster.

Rookie:...

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Opening Night, Series Preview

By: Alex Carson on 2013-04-01
It's a new day and a new way. Wait, scratch that. It actually kind of is, but we certainly don't want to rehash that letdown season of two years ago. The Seattle Mariners embark on their 2013 campaign with some new faces and without the pressure of large expectations. In a way, that's ideal.

I've never been big on my team entering a game, series or season with the "favorite" label. People can sling around their metrics and numbers all they want. These are humans and they do feel pressure.

The club opens up this season – where else – against the Athletics. This time it's in Oakland and not Japan, so there's that. Both clubs look a little different from last year, with the A's hoping that the core that served up a surprise AL West Championship a season ago can keep up with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Series Pitching Preview



Felix Hernandez and Brett Anderson get the honors on opening night. Parker was the Athletics' best hurler a season ago, but Anderson is back and healthy so he'll get the call. Felix faced Oakland five times a season ago, including his first three starts of the year. He went 1-2 in those five starts. While it's easy to point at the Mariners lack of offense, the one win came on...

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Staff Predictions 2013

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-04-01
The 2013 season is upon us and the staff at Prospect Insider has a few predictions to make. Below, however, you'll have a chance to make your own.

2013 MLB Predictions
CategoryGawlowskiMcLainChurchillHuletCarsonWongSchwartze
AL West ChampAngelsRangersRangersRangersRangers AthleticsAngels
AL Central ChampIndians...

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Our summer cathedral

By: Adam H. Wong on 2013-04-01
I remember when I got the call. I didn't get called up to the Bigs and it wasn't a call I was looking forward to. I remember I had told my employer that I was expecting the call, and that I asked to be excused when it came. I remember when my phone rang at work that day that I took a breath and hesitantly answered, although I already knew what was going to be said. My grandfather was battling pancreatic cancer and he died in his sleep that September morning.

I felt sorrow and anger and confusion and guilt all at once. My grandfather taught me how to follow through. You want to create spin on the basketball, he said. Snap your wrist and keep it there until it goes through the hoop. You want to turn in all of your assignments, he said. Your teacher can't give you an A if they don't have anything to grade.

The chances of surviving pancreatic cancer are low. We were all prepared for the worst when we heard the diagnosis. But that didn't make it easier.

I was alone with my thoughts and the radio on the drive away from work. The Mariners play an early game, I thought to myself. It would be a welcome distraction. But when I flipped on the dial and tuned the radio, something else met my ears. It wasn't the crack of the bat or the roar of the crowd, but the gentle musings of a familiar voice.

Dave Niehaus had a segment called "At Home With Dave." It was Dave at his best, just talking baseball. That morning he was reading a passage from The Green Fields of t...

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Roster reaction 2013

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-31
The Seattle Mariners have set their 25-man roster, making it official Sunday afternoon by designating outfielder Casper Wells for assignment and selecting the contract of right-hander D.J. Mitchell.

Mitchell was then optioned to Triple-A Tacoma.

This means Jason Bay has made the team and that the M's have 10 days to trade Wells. If he clears waivers, they can assign him to Tacoma. I do not expect that to be an option, however. I'd bet he's traded, since the chances he's claimed is fairly high.

It's worth noting that Wells doesn't have any control here. He does not qualify to refuse an assignment to the minors -- this is the first time he's been designated (if it were his second, he could refuse an assignment and elect free agency) and his only options are Tacoma, trade or waiver claim.

The final roster is as follows:

Starting Rotation
Felix Hernandez
Hisashi Iwakuma
Joe Saunders
Brandon Maurer
Blake Beavan

Bullpen
Tom Wilhelmsen
Carter Capps
Charlie Furbush
Oliver Perez
Lucas Luetge
Stephen Pryor
Kameron Loe

Catchers
Jesus Montero
Kelly Shoppach

Infielders
Justin Smoak
Kendrys Morales
Dustin Ackley
Brendan Ryan
Kyle Seager
Robert Andino

Outfielders
Jason Bay
Franklin Gutierrez
Michael Saunders
Raul Ibanez
Michael Morse

Next in line
Should injury arise to the rotation, or extended struggles...

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Iwakuma's K-Rate not concerning

By: Casey McLain on 2013-03-31
As spring comes to an end two things are almost certain to change in terms of frequency: the frequency that you have to hear that "spring stats don't mean anything” will decrease, and Hisashi Iwakuma's frequency of striking out opposing batters is almost certain to increase.

We wade through a series of opinions, qualifiers, excuses, and half-truths about spring training, it's important to note that while not many spring stats have a strong, predictive correlation with regular season production, that there are things that occur in February and March that matter. If Justin Smoak went 0-for-Spring there's little chance he'd be on the roster, no matter how vehement a vote of confidence he received from the front office and Eric Wedge. If Brandon Maurer had walked a bunch of batters, struck out very few, given up a bunch of runs, homeruns, and hits, there's little chance he'd be in the rotation. And if Felix Hernandez had come out last spring pumping fastballs in the upper-90s, nobody would have been concerned about the health of his elbow.

Iwakuma's game is to change speeds a lot, miss some bats, and get some ground balls. That has proven to be a very successful model for many pitchers whose fastball velocity resides in the high-80s and low-90s. Logic may also dictate that a pitcher who throws five different pitches may have a harder time getting in a consistent groove in March.

For Iwakuma's part, he's actually throwing his four seam fastball about a mile...

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Ackley's adjustments

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-30
Dustin Ackley has hit at every level of baseball. He torched D-1 baseball for three years, rebounded from slow starts in both Double-A Jackson and Triple-A Tacoma to earn promotions with lengthy streaks of mashing and showed flashes of just that in 2011 once summoned to the big leagues.

For the first time in the history of Dustin Ackley, however, he struggled in 2012. He struggled to hit for average. He struggled to make consistent contact. Neither was the direct result of the heel injury, either. He was struggling prior to the first sign of that late in May.

Last summer I noted in several platforms that Ackley's swing mechanics were a mess. He was flying open early and over-striding, pulling his head and hands -- and therefore the bat -- with him toward the first base and second base hole. This left him helpless against a large portion of the strike zone -- middle-in, middle-away, away -- and created susceptibility to both good velocity and breaking balls.

In other words, he wasn't giving himself much if a chance, and was getting himself out the majority of the time.

After the all-star break, Ackley had clearly made an adjustment, staying closed longer from the waist down and using the middle of the field more, versus a pull happy approach earlier in the season. There were still problems, however, despite some stretches of improved consistency.

The over-stride issue remained -- Ackley continued to take an aggressive step with his fro...

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Odds against Ruffin transition

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-03-30
Earlier this week, word leaked that the Seattle Mariners will attempt to convert Chance Ruffin from a reliever to a starter. After a promising rookie campaign out of the bullpen in 2011, the son of former big league pitcher Bruce Ruffin struggled last season. His velocity dipped, his strikeout rate tumbled, and he spent the entire season in Triple-A. The 6-foot, 180 pounder was among the club's first cuts in camp this spring, leading some to speculate that he had fallen off the organization's big-league radar. Instead, the right-hander's transition from a reliever to a starter indicates that he's still in the team's plans, if in a different role than originally expected.

Though Ruffin has little experience starting, his conversion makes sense for several reasons. First, he has little chance of earning a meaningful role in the Mariner bullpen this year. Relief depth is an organizational strength, and in Tom Wilhelmsen, Carter Capps, and Stephen Pryor, the Mariners have at least three right-handed arms with a higher ceiling than Ruffin already on the 25-man roster.

More importantly, though, Ruffin's physical abilities profile well as a starter. He already has a fastball, curve, slider, and is developing a changeup, a pitch he showed occasionally in college, giving him more than enough weapons to turn a lineup over three times. Furthermore, while he gets credit for moving his fastball around the zone well, Ruffin's lack of an out pitch renders him a potentially o...

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Scouting Notes from Twins camp

By: Hudson Belinsky on 2013-03-28
I spent several days watching minor leaguers last week. Here are some notes on some of the more impressive performances I saw in the Minnesota Twins system.

Byron Buxton, CF
Buxton might be the toolsiest player in the minor leagues. He has all of them, and they could all be plus someday. At the plate, he's short to the baseball and shows plus bat speed. He makes loud contact with the barrel, and uses the entire field. Has the chance to be a 6/6 offensive player -- plus power, plus hitting -- which is scary because of his defensive chops. Buxton made excellent reads off the bat and his grade 8 speed allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield. His routes already look good, and he could play a major-league center field right now. He also possesses a plus-plus arm.

Buxton is an absolute stud. He isn't just tools; there's plenty of present ability, and Buxton should hit the ground running in the lower minors this year.

Daniel Santana, SS
Has the arm for the left side of the infield. Glove needs work, but has quick feet and good range. Has a chance to stick at the position. Switch-hitter with a quick trigger from both sides of the plate. Good plate coverage. He showed the ability to turn on plus velocity. The left-handed swing is a little bit longer with more load in the upper half. The right-handed swing is a thing of beauty; it's quiet, short, and explosive. The power is mostly gap right now, but there's more on the way.

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Maurer's ROY chances

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-28
There are times when it's considered early to be talking about baseball awards. Other times – for which this qualifies -- it's definitively early. I'm going to talk about it anyway, though, because we've got a horse in the race. That race I speak of is the American League Rookie of the Year and that horse is one Brandon Maurer of the Seattle Mariners.

This is mostly an exercise of futility because -- even if Maurer has a stellar campaign -- he could just get snubbed due to playing for a bad club in a weak division. Now, neither of those things may be true, but attempting to employ logic in these things has proven fruitless. It’s an MLB award and there are few examples of them being handed out without some dissention among the ranks of fans, media, players and clubs.

The Competition
A really boring, one-word-count post would read: "Yes." Yes, of course, Maurer could win the award. As a rookie, he qualifies. Or I could have written an even more boring one-word-count post merely stating: "No." Why? Wil Myers is why, punk! There's no fun in that, though. Let's look at the serious contenders and how Maurer could or could not have the edge on them.

Wil Myers, OF -- Tampa Bay Rays
Having already been handed the award for most misspelled name of the year, Myers will start the season in Triple-A. Unless an injury or radically slow start happens, he should be with the big club by May or June. Service time in mind, the Rays have Ben Zobris...

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Scouting notes/video

By: Michael Schwartze on 2013-03-27
This past weekend was one of the nicest we've had all year in Western Washington. It was dry, there was very little wind, and the sun even made some appearances. With those conditions, I was able to go out and see a handful of games these past few days. I saw Kentridge play at Kentwood on Friday.

On Saturday I saw Everett Community College take on Pierce Community College in the morning and in the afternoon I was in attendance for the University of Washington game as they took on the University of South Carolina. On Sunday, I got another look at Everett CC as they took on Tacoma Community College. Below are scouting notes and some video on some of the notable players I saw.

Reese McGuire, C -- Kentwood High School
McGuire is the top prep talent in the area this year and is one of the top catching prospects available for the entire class of 2013. This was my second time seeing McGuire and he continues to impress. On Friday against Kentridge he went 1-for-2 with a double and was intentionally walked once.

The University of San Diego signee has a smooth swing with plus bat speed and a good, patient approach at the plate. He has above-average raw power that could turn to plus as fills out physically.

Defensively, McGuire has all the tools to stick at catcher long term, despite some rough edges. He has a very strong, accurate arm and he posted a couple sub 1.80 pop times while throwing down to second at the start of each inning on Friday. He...

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Maurer and Beavan make rotation

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-27
The Big News
Brandon Maurer and Blake Beavan have made the rotation -- in that order. Maurer will be the number four starter, with Beavan taking up the rear. No official word yet on if this changes Maurer starting in Salt Lake City the day before the season starts, but that seems to make sense to me. Plus, Ryan Divish told me it would and I have zero reason not to believe him.

With Maurer, it's easy to make the comparison to Michael Pineda stealing a rotation spot a few years ago. These are completely different pitchers, of course. Pineda was a freak -- a young, big hurler who had exceptional control and command for his age and size. Maurer won't come out and blow you away with his velocity and stature, but that doesn't make him a lesser pitcher with less upside. A pretty darn good find -- considering where the club took him -- all the way down in the 23rd round of the 2008 draft, this is a huge boon for the scouting department.

What a ride for this kid, coming from obscurity deep in the draft to making a club of three a club of four to rocketing past the other members and being the first to be in the big league rotation. Temper your expectations, folks. He's a rookie after all. But, don't count him out o...

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Rookie Watch: NL East

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-03-26
Our review of potential 2013 impact rookies continues with a look at the National League East division. If you missed it, we have already reviewed the AL West and NL Central divisions.

New York Mets
Rookie: Travis d'Arnaud
Position: Catcher
Roadblock/Competition: John Buck
2012 Starter: Josh Thole (0.1 fWAR)

Buzz
Acquired from Toronto (along with his competition John Buck) during the R.A. Dickey deal, Travis d'Arnaud has gone from being stuck behind J.P. Arencibia to a relatively wide open opportunity in New York. A scorching spring has helped the young backstop open eyes in his new organization but a contact within the Mets organization told me during the off-season that d'Arnaud would, in a perfect world, open 2013 in Triple-A. Even if that happens, the top prospect should receive a significant number of big league at-bats in 2013.

Rookie: Zack Wheeler
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Shaun Marcum
2012 Starter: Dillon Gee (1.5 fWAR)

Buzz
Shaun Marcum's unstable shoulder could be great news for Zack Wheeler. The rookie right-hander needs to ir...

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Spring Training Game 30

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-26
Royals at Mariners
1:05 pm
TV: none
Audio: 710 ESPN Seattle, Gameday, At Bat

Often times when writing, I wonder how the average reader reads what I write. I know not everyone is going to read stuff the same, so that's why I say the "average" reader. Not that you are average. I'm sure you excel at all you do. So, if I have a wicked sinus infection that is making me want to pluck my eyeballs out because looking at this wretched LCD hurts, do you notice? I mean, do you notice if I don't tell you of the problem? Or, is my writing consistent enough that it's always as good/bad regardless? Or, have you skipped by this already and went right to the lineups?

The Mariners and Royals will square off today which isn't significant because, spring training. It's only significant if you find the team that finishes with the best Cactus League record significant. I gather that rules most -- probably all -- of you out. Churchill doesn't even require a word count from me on these posts, so I'm not sure why I'm still talking about this. You get it. This is maybe the most meaningful of the meaningless games this spring.

The whole removal-of-pressure thing with Dustin Ackley doesn't bother me that much. I think it was a fabulous idea and one of the reasons I didn't hate the trades for Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales, where many saw them as lateral moves. The less pressure on Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero the better. These are real people, you know.

...

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Draft Weekly: Myth of the weak class

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-25
Every year one of the topics broached at this time of year is how good the draft class is in terms of impact and depth and how it may compare to previous classes. The past three have been far from historic, at least on the positive side, but there's a point to be made here, so that's the goal this week.

Regardless of how good or bad the draft classes are, club go into with the same goal: get the best players possible signed and into their farm system. That's certainly no surprise to anyone, but weaker classes are just as important as the stronger ones, perhaps more so.

That is the case because it tests the scouting skills (and later the player development skills) of each organization. And each draft is an opportunity for clubs to gain ground on other teams. If Team A drafts and signs zero average major-league talent in the 2013 draft and Team B drafts and signs three average major-league players, Team B got better and Team A did not.

It's not cut and dry, as clubs occasionally punt drafts in favor of budgeting for other areas, such as free agency, the big-league roster and international talents, but the new system eliminates most of that.

From a fans point of view, the draft is a time when your favorite team has a chance to gain ground on those in front of them, or toss some dust at those trailing. The draft isn't the only way to get young talent, but despite the recent adjustments to the system, it remains the most effective and least expensive w...

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Spring Training: Game 29

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-25
Update at 12:19 pm
Josh Kinney was just placed on the 60-day DL with Kameron Loe added to the 40-man roster. So, there's that. Update the below in your head, because I gotta run!

I did the math in my head as to which spring game this is and, well, I am not really sure I nailed it. Does it matter? If I said it was game 29 and it's actually game 28 or 30 or 87 how many of you would notice? If you just raised your hand, you're a far more focused individual than I and I applaud you.

So, you've likely noticed, the M's roster is starting to take more shape. More things have happened in the last couple days to help us get an idea of what that shape will be. Jon Garland didn't like the prospects of probably pitching to contact at Safeco Field so he's gone with the certainty of pitching to contact at Coors Field. Alrighty. What that means for the M's is that Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan and Jeremy Bonderman are all still alive in the fight for a rotation spot.

For Maurer, he's still hanging around and is actually scheduled to start the final exhibition of the spring -- a tilt against the Colorado Rockies in Salt Lake City. Now, this doesn't mean it's a certainty, but it doesn't take a smarty-pants to figure out this puts him exactly on schedule to be the club's fifth starter. That'll be one to watch.

For Ramirez, he's scheduled to relieve Felix in his next outing. After doing the same in his last game, you've got to think his chanc...

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Justin Smoak's spring

By: Casey McLain on 2013-03-24
Spring Training is a funny time, and really separates skeptics from believers. The Mariners have had a huge offensive spring so far, and if you listen long enough you’ll hear alternating statements telling you that spring stats mean literally nothing, and that people would rather see spring success than spring failure.

Justin Smoak has dominated Spring Training to the tune of a .408/.434/.796 slash line coming into Sunday’s action. But spring stats, no matter who you talk to, have some reduced level of relevance. To some people Smoak may as well be playing slow pitch softball, and to others, Smoak’s production, combined with his September surge last year, may foreshadow a season in which Smoak realizes some of the value that the Mariners thought he had when they traded Cliff Lee for the package that brought him to Seattle.

Spring has a lot of variables. Pitchers are at different levels of conditioning. Minor leaguers and fringe big leaguers blend into the population of spring baseball players. Pitchers are working on pitches. Pitches are trying to stretch out their pitch counts. Opposing defenses are teaching players new positions. Whatever.

To account for this, Baseball Reference has a tool that measures the quality of opposing players, in this case pitchers, based on their level for the past year. The problem with this, how...

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Player interest in WBC

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-23
Ed note: This piece is being syndicated at Prospect Insider and Sounder at Heart.

The World Baseball Classic recently concluded. We saw The Dominican Republic defeating Puerto Rico in the final and The United States not doing so well. Not that they ever have fared well in these competitions, but this year's roster induced even less appeal than those before it. Superstar interest seemed at an all-time low. Eligible and healthy players included Mike Trout, Buster Posey and Justin Verlander. Instead, we got the likes of Willie Bloomquist were on the roster. It goes beyond the US, though. Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez was on-board, but backed out after the M's gave him the contents of a few bank vaults.

Then, I see footballers -- including MLS players whose seasons just started -- who excitedly left their clubs to play in conditions like this:



Why is that? Well, I have my thoughts, but I thought I'd first check in with someone who knows about football. I sent an email to Dave Clark, manager of Sounder at Heart. Here is our conversation, in a super sleek email format that you can follow along with!

***

From: Alex Carson
To: Dave Clark
Date: Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 8:45 PM
Subject: Interest in International Sporting Events

Dave,

As a newbie to socce...

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Scouting Notes from camp

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-23
As the big league club begins to make difficult and critical decisions the Seattle Mariners minor league staff remains busy getting the younger players ready for their seasons.

I saw several dazen players in workouts, batting and infield practice and bullpen sessions, and took notes on many of them. So here, basically, is a copy of my notebook.

Jordy Lara, 3B | 22 | Pulaski (R)
Lara, a right-handed batter, is lean and athletic and had one of the prettier swings in all of camp. He showed plus bat speed, producing power to right-center field with the ball jumping off his bat.

He's mired in short-season ball since signing, however, suggesting he lacks plate discipline and pitch recognition.

Ji-man Choi, C/1B | 22 | High Desert (A+)
he left-handed batting Choi, who has fought injuries throughout his pro career, displayed good hands and feet and plenty of arm strength and accuracy, and he can hit for average to go with average power.

He doesn't receive well, and has problems with balls in the dirt and isn't likely to stick at catcher. The bat isn't going to play at first base or DH.

Gabriel Guerrero, RF | 19 | Arizona (R)
Guerrero, very short video below, starts with his hands below his shoulders but is strong with go...

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M's depth showing this spring

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-03-22
It was decision day for Jon Garland and the Seattle Mariners. The 33-year-old right-hander used his opt-out clause, allowing him to begin pursuing free agency after learning the Seattle Mariners would not extend him a roster spot..

So far, the Mariners have locked down three starters: Felix Hernandez, the undisputed ace, Hisashi Iwakuma, a solid No. 2, and Joe Saunders, the sole southpaw. The remaining two slots are open to five others, veterans Jon Garland and Jeremy Bonderman and youngsters Blake Beavan, Erasmo Ramirez, and Brandon Maurer.

Yesterday's Cactus League loss to the Chicago Cubs was a final exam for Garland. Over his three previous starts, he posted a 1.50 earned run average in six innings pitched, allowing five hits, a run, four walks, and a single strikeout. As various members of the Seattle media pointed out, his fourth start was a make-it-or-break-it moment. If he pitched well, he was all but guaranteed to make the squad. If not, he and the Mariners could part on amicable terms while he fished for other options.

It wasn't an A-plus start, but there was a chance Garland's six-inning performance might just have earned him a pass. After surrendering a leadoff double to David DeJesus, he retired the next seven batters and finished with five hits, two runs, a walk, and three strikeouts. Of his five hits, two were home runs -- one by opposing starter Jeff Samardzija, one by Alfonso Soriano -- the only home runs Garland has allowed all spring. H...

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M's roster update

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-22
The Seattle Mariners, as Jack Zduriencik told the media in Peoria Friday, were not prepared to guarantee right-hander Jon Garland a spot in the starting five, nor a 40-man roster spot, so the battle for the final two spots in the starting rotation is down to four.

Let's discuss.

Left in the mix are veteran Jeremy Bonderman, prospect Brandon Maurer, and right-handers Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan. Here are the scenarios:

Best scenerio in terms of talent: Maurer, Ramirez
Both have above-average stuff and can induce strikeouts and neither are severe fly ball pitchers. The concern with both include season-long workload.

Maurer has not thrown more than the 137 2/3 innings he tossed a year ago at Double-A Jackson. If he starts the year in the majors, it's more difficult to avoid having to shut him down in mid-to-late August to avoid putting too much on his shoulders.

Ramirez, all 5-foot-11 and 210 pounds of him, may not be the ideal candidate for 190-plus innings, either. His career high is 152 2/3 innings, achieved in 2011, but his size is a small concern on top of the projected jump.

There are ways to steer through these issues, however.

Service time, on Maurer, is also something to consider, as is the idea that perhaps he could use another two or three months of refinement, and the challenge of Triple-A could be very valuable. Triple-A hitters don't chase as much, and they punish mistakes.

The safe scenario:...

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Remaining position battles

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-21
We're at the point of spring training where players are starting to wonder why they're still at spring training and not playing meaningful games. That's probably not the thought of every player -- some, usually prospects, but sometimes old players, are thankful they still have time left to compete for jobs -- but it's a thought many veterans have milling in their heads.

For these Seattle Mariners, there are still a number competitions going on. Some have concluded -- Jesus Montero and Kelly Shoppach will be your opening day backstops. Others, though, rage on. Namely, the outfield and rotation seem like wet cement. We have a pretty good idea of what they will be -- or should be -- but there's still time to scrape it up and re-pour.

Let's go through each position to review the status of the men who'd like to man them.

Catcher
Jesus Montero - Lock
Kelly Shoppach - Lock

Barring injury or something else out of the control of these two players, they will be the catching tandem come April. They're the only two receivers remaining on the active roster after Mike Zunino was re-assigned to minor league camp. You might see Jesus Sucre, John Hicks or Zunino catch a spring game yet -- teams can use any major or minor leaguer during spring tilts without roster mov...

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Spring Training: Game 25

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-21
Cubs @ Mariners, 7:05 pm.
TV: ROOT Sports
Audio: 710 ESPN Seattle, Gameday, At Bat

[The scene cuts to a boy, about 8, entering the ballpark for the first time. He holds his father’s hand and marvels at the spectacularly groomed grass, the smoothed infield dirt and the men clad in baseball uniforms tossing warm-up throws. He looks up to his dad.]

“Pa,” the boy begins. “Who’s that fella in the middle?”

“Why, that’s the center fielder, son,” his father replies. “He’s the best defender and athlete of the three who patrol the grassy area.”

“Wow!” marvels the youngster. “What’s his name?”

“Well, let’s get a look-see...” the dad starts, as he cranes his neck. "Wait. What? Jason Bay?"

From the director of “Unlikely Lead-off Hitter,” comes a box office sequel that will charm audiences of all ages. This spring, don’t miss out on: “Aged in the Outfield: A Jason Bay Story.”

This is the kind of crazy stuff you see in Arizona. Your best available defender in right field. Your strongest arm in left field. And, yes, Jason Bay in center. Unless someone gets hurt or Bay looks absolutely lost chasing fly balls tonight, this could be the final nail in Casper Wells’ metaphorical coffin. The premise is that should (when?) Franklin Gutierrez not answer the bell at some point this season, another center fielder may be needed. So, you know, instead of just keeping the one you already have around; let’s give Jason Bay a look.

I think it’s...

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Draft Weekly: Prep talents

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-19
PHOENIX, Ariz. -- Several of the recent draft classes have been deemed "shallow" or "weak" in comparison to 2005 and perhaps 2008. The depth tends to grow some the further into spring we get. And it's this kind of draft when the best scouting clubs in baseball gain ground on the rest of the league.

The depth of which I just spoke often comes from the prep ranks, so let's focus on that this week.

After the top prep prospects, including Jon Denney, whom I saw live Monday, first baseman Dominic Smith, outfielders Austin Meadows, Ryan Boldt and Clint Frazier, shortstops Oscar Mercado and J.P. Crawford, right-hander Kohl Stewart and southpaws Trey Ball and Matt Krook, there are some really good players with upside and polish.

Among those:

Will Crowe, RHP -- Pigeon Forge (Tenn.) High School
Crowe sits in the 89-91 mph range with his fastball but possesses a plus curveball and at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds could add velocity into the 90-93 mph range or more, which changes the profile.

Ivan Wilson, OF -- Rustin (La.) High School
Wilson ranked at No. 47 on Keith Law's Future 50 1.0, and has the potential to move up into the top 30 or so. He's big and strong and runs well and the more he shows the better side of his hit tool the higher he'll climb.

Stephen Gonsalves, LHP -- Cathedr...

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Scouting Notes: WBC

By: Hudson Belinsky on 2013-03-17
PHOENIX, Ariz. -- Last week I snuck away from the SABR Analytics Conference to catch a pair of World Baseball Classic games at Chase Field.

The first game I went to featured Team Canada and Team Italy. I didn't see a plus fastball at the game, and the best players in the game were mostly established big leaguers. Watching prospects play in this environment is actually very telling.
You get to see how a hitting prospect might handle a crafty left-hander, or how a fringy arm might attack, or at least try to attack, Joey Votto. With that, here are some notes I had on some of the players who played in the game:

Tyson Gillies, OF, Canada -- Philadelphia Phillies
First off, I like that Gillies rhymes with Phillies. I also like that Gillies can take good routes to the ball in center field, and that he has the speed to negate some of the mistakes he makes out there. He made one awesome play in center where everything went correctly; he read the ball well off the bat, took a straight route to the ball, dove for it, then hopped up and delivered a laser to the cutoff man. At the plate, Gillies got a little bit long with his swing and didn't show great bat speed, but he was able to barrel balls left inside, once delivering a liner that unfortunately sailed right to the pitcher.

I worry about whether he'll remain exploitable on the outer half of the zone, or if he'll have trouble with elite velocity.

I've discussed Gillies with sco...

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Spring Training Game 22

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-03-17
TV game today!

The buzz around camp is that Jon Garland has impressed the Mariner brass enough that he's now a favorite to make the Opening Day rotation. It’s a bit of a surprise: coming into camp, Garland hadn’t pitched since 2011, and with so much competition for two rotation jobs, his future with the club was murky. Kudos to him for having a strong spring and getting his career back on track.

As a corollary, if Garland does win a rotation job, the final spot in the starting five will likely go to either Erasmo Ramirez or today’s starter, Blake Beavan (with Jeremy Bonderman and Brandon Maurer lurking as dark horses). Maybe it’s because I have blinders on when it comes to Ramirez (I like him quite a bit) but I don’t think this should be a tough choice.

Beavan is a known quantity and a decent illustration of a swingman/replacement level starter. In forty-one career outings, Beavan has posted a K/9 below 4 with a FIP and xFIP in the 4.70’s. Basically, he throws the ball, batters hit it, and when things go well, it winds up in somebody’s glove. It isn't a dominating or intimidating approach, and even though he’s young, Beavan doesn’t project to get much better.

On the other hand, Ramirez pitched quite well in limited action last season. Projected as a control specialist throughout his career, Ramirez demonstrated that he’d acquired some unexpected life on his fastball last spring, and he earned a place on the team’s opening day roster. He spent m...

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Rookie Watch: NL Central

By: Marc Hulet on 2013-03-16
Every team can use a solid shot in the arm during a long, grueling six-month (or longer) season, and the right rookie can do just that.

Last week, we reviewed the American League West.

Today, we continue our in-depth look at possible 2013 MLB rookie contributors with a focus on the National League Central.

Get out your notepads.

St. Louis Cardinals

Rookie: Shelby Miller
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Joe Kelly
2012 Starter: Joe Kelly (1.0 WAR)

Buzz
Miller received a scare early in spring with some shoulder soreness but he's back and throwing well with no reported lingering issues. He's currently battling Joe Kelly for the fifth spot in the starting rotation but may have the edge. Kelly (like Trevor Rosenthal who has already been shifted back to the bullpen after receiving early consideration for a starting role) may be better-suited to a relief role where he can focus on his mid-90s sinker. Miller has a more diverse repertoire and is more likely to hold up to the rigors of starting but he needs to do a better job of avoiding the long ball. He will likely go to Triple-A if he failed to stick as the No. 5 guy.

Rookie: Trevor Rosenthal
Position: Relief...

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M's look to Montero as bridge

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-03-16
Heading into 2013, Jesus Montero has some big cleats to fill. No, there's no pressure to live up to the legacy Miguel Olivo left in Seattle, but there are increased expectations that come with the young backstop's first full season as the Mariners' "primary catcher."

How long he holds onto that title remains to be seen, but the cleats he’s challenged with filling are his own.

When Montero began camp with the Mariners in 2012, the deal that brought him to the American League West had all but fizzled out on the New York Yankees' end. By Opening Day, former M's right-hander Michael Pineda landed on the 15-day disabled list with right shoulder tendinitis that would jeopardize his season and possibly even his career. Montero, by contrast, was the picture of health. He found his place as Seattle's designated hitter and was eased into a part-time catching role behind Olivo and eventually ahead of John Jaso on the depth chart.

However, the shiny .289/.351/.493 batting line Jesus advertised with New York's Triple-A club dulled to .260/.298/.386 as he adjusted to a roomier Safeco Field and the disadvantage of the pitchers knowing him better than he knew them. The game’s top power-hitting prospect slugged his way to 15 home runs and 35 extra base hits in total, but was far from elite behind the dish. In 56 starts, Montero allowed 54 stolen bases, a caught-stealing rate of just 17 percent. By the end of the 2012 season, his bWAR had sunk to -0.3, fifth-lowest on a t...

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Spring Training Preview: Game 21

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-15
The Mariners continue to slice their roster as we move into the second half of March. As Brendan noted last night, the club dispatched three members of The Big Four. Interestingly, it's the member of who changed it from a club of three to a club of four -- Brandon Maurer -- who sticks around with the big league squad.

Then, this morning, infielder Alex Liddi was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma while catchers John Hicks Hicks and Ronny Paulino and infielder Stefan Romero were re-assigned to minor league camp. The catching duo was no surprise as it's seemed pretty clear from the start that Jesus Montero and Kelly Shoppach would be the open day backstops. Romero -- a sleeper to break camp with the club -- was slowed down by injury.

So, we're left with 47 Mariners in camp.

Two games today -- one against the Angels (boo!) and the other against the Kingdom of the Netherlands -- and still no Franklin Gutierrez. I'm becoming a little worried, but TNT's Ryan Divish talked with Guti and says it shouldn't be that big of a deal. Still, though. This is Franklin Gutierrez we're talking about. Any setback is noteworthy.

Mariners Lineup
1: 7-L Michael Saunders
2: 4-S Nick Franklin
<...

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Big 3 Among 5 Players Cut Today

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-03-14
Following today’s games, the Mariners trimmed their spring roster down to 51 players by cutting five pitchers from big league camp. Danny Hultzen and Hector Noesi were optioned to Tacoma while Jhonny Nunez, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker have been sent to minor league camp.

Three things jump out at me. First, Noesi’s quick demotion indicates that he’s not part of the team’s short-term plan at the moment. This shouldn’t be surprising, and it’s certainly justified by Noesi’s performance, both last season and during the spring. I’ll have a longer post on Noesi’s struggles shortly, but for now, his demotion serves as another indication of how far his stock has plummeted within the organization since his acquisition from New York last January. He’s the first player from the 2012 big league team to get cut this spring, which should demonstrate how far down the totem pole he is for big league innings right now.

Second, this obviously ends any chance that Hultzen makes the Opening Day rotation. Some had hoped that he would challenge for the fifth spot in the rotation if he could prove that last year’s mechanical problems and strike throwing issues were behind him. But with plenty of depth and no reason to rush Hultzen, the Mariner brass appears to want to make sure the young lefty’s adjustments hold up over longer, more regular, and more competitive outings in Triple A. Some might be disappointed that they’ll have to wait a little longer to see Hultzen in Safeco, b...

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Spring Training Preview: Game 20

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-14
The Mariners have dropped six of their last seven contests after winning 10 straight. Their last win was the 12-2 drubbing of the then-undefeated Kansas City Royals. I wouldn't really call this regression to the mean, since we're talking about spring games here. It is a reminder, though, that these Mariners aren't the juggernauts we thought them to be over the span of their first 11 games.

Aside from the game we're previewing here, the M's also have a B game going on this morning. Neither contest features the now scarcely seen Franklin Gutierrez. Manager Eric Wedge says he's fine, but I'm certainly raising an eyebrow at the fact that we haven't seen Guti in a few days now. It could be something or it could be nothing. Either way, I'm curious.

Kyle Seager is at second base today with Carlos Triunfel getting the nod at third. Okay.

Mariners Lineup
1: 4-L Kyle Seager
2: 8-R Casper Wells
3: 0-S Kendrys Morales
4: 9-R Michael Morse
5: 3-S Justin Smoak
6: 7-L Carlos Peguero
7: 2-R Jesus Sucre
8: 5-R Carlos Triunfel
9: 6-R Brendan Ryan


Pitching matchup
Joe Saunders will be on the bump for the M's today, taking on Cincinnati's righty-hander Homer Bailey.

Following the M's southpaw will be Brandon Maurer, Oliver Perez, Danny Farquhar and Bobby LaFromboise. The list of scheduled pitchers is getting shorter. Look for Saunders and Maurer to go...

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Spring Training Preview: Game 19

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-13
I'm a little late here, but Wednesday's game info is below:

Lineup
Jason Bay, LF
Kyle Seager, 3B
Michael Morse, 1B
Raul Ibanez, DH
Michael Saunders, CF
Kelly Shoppach, C
Carlos Peguero, RF
Robert Andino, SS
Carlos Triunfel, 2B

Pitchers
Hisashi Iwakuma gets the start with Danny Hultzen, Tom Wilhelmsen, Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor and Jhonny Nunez also at the ready.

Minor leaguers Matt Brazis, Dominic Leone and George Mieses are also with the team just in case the right situation arises. Mieses can tough 96 on the radar gun and both Brazis and Leone have potential major league futures. Brazis brings plus control and command to the table.

...

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Pike, Marlette stand out

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-13
The "Cactus League" games the minor leaguers will play this spring do not get under way until this coming weekend, but pitchers are throwing bullpens, catchers are working on their technique and there's tons of infield, baserunning and outfield work being done, serving as a showcase of sorts.

Monday and Tuesday I got a look at each level and took the following notes:

Infielders
When the shortstop lineup includes Chris Taylor and Gabriel Noriega flashing the leather, infield looks pretty darned sharp, and that occurred Monday. The two glove men weren't the only ones that looked good, though.

Mario Martinez, who has grown into a third baseman physically, moved his feet much better than I'd ever seen before and his arm strength now appears to rival that of Ramon Morla.

Martinez has above-average power and now what appears to be passable third-base defense. If only he could learn to work counts, lay off pitches out of the zone and make more consistent contact.

Noriega took BP and still has a bad swing, but can we talk about his defense some more?

Tyler Marlette, C
Marlette is in terrific shape, shedding what appeared to be at least 12-15 pounds or so, perhaps more, and he showed some spring out of his crouch during workouts in the cages.

Coach Scott Steinmann was working with Marlette on staying lower in his crouch, one of his weak spots that may lead to another position for the Florida native. His bat plays at...

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Spring PreviewL Game 18

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-12
I'm going to keep the preview for today's game short today. First, because Felix is awesome and nothing I can type will add to or subtract from that. Also, below the lineups and pitching matchups, you'll find some interesting remarks we plucked from scouts and front office personnel around the league.

Mariners Lineup
1: 9-R Jason Bay
2: 4-L Dustin Ackley
3: 3-S Kendrys Morales
4: 0-S Justin Smoak
5: 7-L Eric Thames
6: 2-R Jesus Montero
7: 5-L Brad Miller
8: 8-L Julio Morban
9: 6-R Brendan Ryan


Pitching matchup
King Felix takes on Arizona southpaw Patrick Corbin.

Following Hernandez will be Hector Noesi, Lucas Luetge, Logan Bawcom, Bobby LaFromboise, Yoervis Medina, Carson Smith, Danny Farquhar and Jhonny Nunez.

Scouts on the M's, AL West
The Seattle Mariners' domination this spring means very little in terms of what the club may do once the regular season starts. There are dozens of factors that support the "meaningless" tag, but a handful of senior scouts believe it's better to have more positive signs than negative during spring games, and that Seattle has good reason to be confident they'll be much improved in 2013.

"Just watching them three or four days in a week, you can see the difference." one NL club's special assistant to the GM told Prospect Insider this week. "It's obviously a group with confidence, some solid t...

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Draft Weekly: NW Area notes

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-11
While the southern states are well into their prep schedules the northwest just started theirs. Several of the top prep talents in the area played their first games over the weekend, and Prospect Insider's Michael Schwartze joined me at Liberty High School to check out the area's top high school prospect in Kentwood High School catcher Reese McGuire.

McGuire, a left-handed hitter, has worked to get stronger since I saw him last March, putting on at least 10 pounds, perhaps more. He's much stronger and sturdier than two summers ago at the Area Code Games tryouts prior to his junior year, when he looked like a middle infielder, not a backstop.

McGuire stands 6-foot-1 and I'd guess he's tipping the scales in the 185 range now, maybe as much as 190. He's lean, but clearly getting stronger, and he still runs well and shows athletic feet.

At the plate, his swing generates line drives and he uses the whole field. In the past, he's shown average to above-average raw power in the cage, thanks to plus bat speed and hand-eye coordination.

On Saturday, he was out front in his first at-bat, but was patient, drawing a couple of walks, and lined out sharply to the shortstop in another at-bat.

My concerns with McGuire heading into this season is centered on his ability to handle the position regularly. Some of that was due to his size and some due to a shoulder injury -- it's usually not a good sign when a teenage catcher has an injury at 17 to a joint or h...

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M's project better in 2013

By: Casey McLain on 2013-03-10
In many ways the last two Seattle Mariners offseasons have been similar to one other. In each case the M's went into the offseason with some perceived needs, namely power hitters, and in each offseason there was a high-profile player available that fit that mold at a position that the Mariners could stand to see some significant improvement.

Both years, the division rival Angels made upgrades at both positions by signing Josh Hamilton, whom the Mariners were actively courting, and Albert Pujols, who is better than his curvier first base counterpart, Prince Fielder, whom the Mariners were also flirting with to some degree. Both Hamilton and Fielder signed for deals well above their expected value over the course of their contract based on the expected career arc of any player -- let alone one with addiction or weight concerns.

The problem in either case, or even the case of Pujols -- who never was rumored to consider Seattle -- was that the Mariners remained very low on the front-side of their win curve. Paying above projected value can make sense if doing so offers security that is essential to a team's success, but doing so in the meaty part of a rebuild is bound to have some future ramifications.

This is the same reason why financial experts advise that people closer to retirement contribute more money, but to allocate it toward less volatile assets. For someone close to retirement, doubling one's investment over the course of thirty years is less impor...

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Spring Training Preview: Game 17

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-10
The Seattle Mariners (11-4) get back to work Sunday versus the Chicago White Sox (6-4-2) on a day when Major League Baseball would probably prefer you were more interested in the World Baseball Classic.

There's good reason to have more interest in Sunday's game involving Team USA and Team Canada -- it probably matters more. That game includes M's outfielder Michael Saunders, who had four hits Saturday versus Mexico.

Broadcast
Listen to Sunday's game at 1:05 PT (yes, 1:05) on 710 ESPN Seattle, the former home of Brock and Salk host Mike Salk, who is a traitor headed back to Boston where his kind belong. Good riddance. (This is my way of pretending it doesn't suck.)

Sunday's Starter
The Mariners will send right-hander Andrew Carraway to the mound ahead of an off day Monday. Carraway will start the season in Triple-A Tacoma, perhaps out of the bullpen, depending on where the Big Four each begin their seasons.

Also available to pitch
Right-handers Taijuan Walker, Tom Wilhelmsenm Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps and Carson Smith, and lefties Charlie Furbush and Lucas Luetge are available Sunday. Not all are guaranteed to pitch, as we enter the part of the spring when starters will be stretched out beyond one or two innings, depending on the circumstances and pitch counts.

Expect Walker to get some work, however.

Lineup
Kyle Seager, 2B
Jason Bay, LF
Raul Ibanbez, DH
Michael Morse, 1B
Carlos Pe...

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Spring Training Preview: Game 16

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-09
Don't forget that the Prospect Insider Handbook is out. It's really neat-o. In fact, I wrote some stuff in it. Oh, that's not a hot selling point? Adam wrote in it, too! Oh, look at you getting all excited and clicking here to buy it. Ugh.

The Mariners were getting thumped 12-1 yesterday when the rain came along and mercifully ended the game before it went official. Of course, that one run for the M's came from a Casper Wells dinger. Previously thought to not have spot on this club thanks to the acquisitions of Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez, Wells is all of a sudden making Eric Wedge and Jack Zdurencik think twice. Let's hope he keeps it up, because he simply is far more valuable to this club than the veterans.

There's a B game going on in Peoria against the hated Padres as I type this. In only two innings, there has been a Jason Bay three-run homer and a Jesus Montero -- wait for it -- clean triple. Yeah, I know. San Diego's Jonathan Galvez had an inside-the-park homer after Eric Thames and Francisco Martinez nearly knocked noggins in right-center. This one should end with plenty hilarity.

As for the main event, the club will be up at Camelback Ranch to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. You can catch that contest on 710 ESPN Seattle at 12:05 pm. You can also listen in via Gameday on your computer or by using the At Bat app on your mobile device.

If Montero...

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Gutierrez could be the answer

By: Ashley Varela on 2013-03-08
Days since Franklin Gutierrez's last injury: 253 ... and counting.

Following a productive offseason and an increasingly impressive spring, health may be the greatest contribution the 30-year-old Gutierrez brings to the table in 2013. Over the past two seasons, the center fielder has weathered four trips to the disabled list -- approximately seven months out of the lineup out of a possible 12 -- with everything from a concussion to severe digestive ailment.

In 2011, Gutierrez left spring training with a bout of stomach gastritis, which first cropped up in 2010 and was thought to affect both his weight and his offensive production. By the end of the season he was back on the DL with a strained left oblique after swinging at an outside pitch from Grant Balfour.

2012 was no better. Again, he left Peoria injured, this time with a partially torn pectoral muscle. After a brief rehab stint in Triple-A Tacoma, he returned to the field in June, but was taken out by an errant pickoff throw merely two weeks later. The ball struck Gutierrez in the side of the head, causing concussion symptoms, and that was that.

So far this spring, Gutierrez has been healthy with no signs of lingering effects from the old stomach issue, nor the concussion, and appears to be on his way to at least starting the regular season on the active roster. The local media seem to think so, anyway. Seattle Times columnist Full Story - Comments (7)
Spring Training Game 15 (PPD)

By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-03-08
The Prospect Insider Handbook is available! You should check out this page to learn more!

The Mariners split their two games yesterday, but received strong performances from a number of players. Robert Andino and Casper Wells both homered, while Stefen Romero stole the show with two bombs and a 4-5 game where he finished just a triple short of the cycle. Brandon Mauerer struck out four Athletics in three innings, Felix Hernandez made his spring debut, and, most importantly, nobody injured themselves. All in all, a pretty good afternoon.

Meanwhile, in WBC play, Italy got a much needed 6-5 win against Mexico after a two run ninth inning rally. It was a tough loss for the Mexicans, who probably have to beat both Canada and the United States to advance now. They play the Americans tonight at six. Alex Liddi hit cleanup for Italy, and went 2-3 with a walk.

In a long game that wasn’t quite as captivating as I had hoped, the Dominican Republic handily dispatched Venezuela 9-3. The surprise of the night was in Tokyo, where the Netherlands knocked off Cuba 6-2, thanks in part to a three run homer by Orioles prospect Jonathan Schoop.

Game vs. Oakland

Today’s game will start at 12:05 Pacific time. 710 ESPN will have the call live.

Pitching Matchup

Hector Noesi v. A.J. Griffin

If anybody forgot what watching Hector No...

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Spring Training Preview: Games 13, 14

By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-07
Did you know the Prospect Insider Handbook is available? You should check out this page to learn more!

Weird. The Seattle Mariners lost a baseball game yesterday. It's sort of funny -- to me anyway -- how something as meaningless as a spring exhibition can become interesting. The feeling of defeat certainly wasn't like the air being let out of you following a World Series loss. It was more like the last bit of helium whizzing out of a little balloon. Still, though, the Mariners have been winning games. If I'm going to watch a game, they may as well win it, right?

To make up for it, the Mariners will go out and win two games today. One against the defending AL West Champion Oakland Athletics in Phoenix and the other in Surprise against the Kansas City Royals.

The former features the future in Brandon Maurer while the latter will be the spring debut for Felix Hernandez.

Game vs Kansas City
This game will be broadcast on 710 ESPN Seattle tonight at 7 pm. You can listen in live via Gameday on your computer or by using the At Bat app on your mobile device.

Mariners Lineup
5-L Seager
7-R Wells
3-S Smoak
0-R Morse
9-L Peguero
2-R Shoppach
8-L Morban
6-R Triunfel
4-R Romero

Pitching matchup
King Felix will summit the pitching mound and fire his first pitch of the pre-season for the Mariners. H...

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2013 Prospect Insider Handbook

By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-06
The 2013 Prospect Insider Handbook & Preview Guide is here -- only two weeks later than we preferred, but each year we cut a week off our tardiness! -- and here's your chance to get your digital copy.

But first, here's what you get:

Prospect Handbook
  • Top 50 Seattle Mariners Prospects Rankings

  • Scouting reports on the Top 25, including tools rankings, MLB ETA and MLB Comps

  • Best Tools

  • Discussing the projected 2013 Tacoma Rainiers lineup

  • American League West Top 25 Prospects

  • Quick-and-dirty Analysis of the AL West farm systems

  • Latin Leagues players to watch

  • Origins of the Top 50

  • Assessing and grading the M's draft history

  • Sleeper Prospects

  • Potential Breakthrough Prospects

  • Projecting the 2016 Seattle Mariners

  • Most Valuable Seattle Mariners


    • Preview Guide
  • Breaking down the M's AL West foes, including Who's in, Who's out for each club

  • AL West Top 75 Players

  • Scouting the Seattle Mariners' Projected Regulars, includes statistical projections for each

  • AL West divisional unit rankings (top rotations, top lineups, etc)

  • Eric Wedge: Why he's the man for the job and why he's not

  • Best Tools (25-man roster)

  • 2013 MLB Predictions, including division winners, wildcards, batting titles and more


    • The copy is...

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    Welcome Casey McLain

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-06
    Join me in welcoming Casey McLain to the Prospect Insider staff. Casey is the founder of the North and South of Royal Brougham blog and will cover the big leagues here at PI on multiple levels.

    Follow Casey on Twitter here and email him here if you want to tell him how awesome Robert Swift is....

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 12

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-06
    Make sure to check out Marc Hulet's excellent Rookie Watch piece from earlier.

    The unstoppable force that is the Seattle Mariners had yesterday off. Baseball was furious with them for the way their lineup has hammered the rest of the Cactus League, so they were sat in a corner and told to think about what they've done. You've got 10 exhibition wins in a row? Really, guys? Share the love, would you?

    After their sabbatical, the M's return to action in Peoria as they host the 4-6 Milwaukee Brewers. Blake Beavan and an interesting lineup will tackle the Brew Crew as they go for a their 11th consecutive spring victory.

    Game time is set for 12:05 pm PT. The radio broadcast will be on a delay again. So you can listen in on 710 ESPN Seattle tonight at 7:05 pm, or listen live this afternoon with Gameday on the web or open the At Bat app on your mobile device.

    Even though Dustin Ackley is in the lineup today, he'll bat second behind the hot-hitting Franklin Gutierrez. Many have often thought Ackley is better suited for the two-hole in a perfect world, but this Mariners lineup has not been perfect. Of course, Ackley has had his struggles, but I don't know that Gutierrez would be my first pick to leadoff if I moved on from Ackley.

    We're starting to get to the point in spring where Eric Wedge may want to play with some things and we can get an idea of what his though...

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    Rookie Watch: AL West

    By: Marc Hulet on 2013-03-05
    Last week I wrote an overview of the rookie picture in the Major Leagues. This week I'm starting a division-by-division breakdown of the potential impact rookies for each club.

    We're not likely to see the same impact that the MLB Rookie Class of 2012 had, with the likes of Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper, Los Angeles Angels centerfielder Mike Trout and Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Matt Moore, but the Rookie Class of 2013 offers some intriguing potential among its most promising members.



    Let's examine:

    Seattle Mariners

    Rookie: Mike Zunino
    Position:     Catcher
    Roadblock/Competition: Jesus Montero
    2012 Starter: John Jaso (2.7 WAR)
    Although they haven't publicly placed expectations on the rookie, Seattle is clearly counting on Zunino to reach the majors quickly after the front office traded 2012 starter John Jaso to the Oakland Athletics. The veteran backstop had the 12th-best WAR among MLB catchers last year.

    Second-year MLBer Jesus Montero, who spent the majority of last season at DH, is projected to be the starter behind the dish when 2013 begins, but his defense remains a huge question mark. He threw out just 17...

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    Draft Weekly: Arms dominate

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-03-05
    A year ago Stanford right-hander Mark Appel spent most of the season as the No. 1 overall prospect. He was then selected No. 8 overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates and re-entered the 2013 Draft when the signing deadline came and went. The Pirates will receive the No. 9 overall pick in this year's draft as compensation, but it looks like much more of a consolation than anything else at this point.

    Appel went the distance for the second straight week, yielding just three hits and a walk and striking out 14 batters. It was his first shutout of the year.

    The right-hander, now a senior with virtually zero leverage come draft day, is now 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings and a 28-5 K/BB ratio. He's surrendered just two extra-base hits -- both doubles -- and looks the part of a No. 1 prospect.

    In all three starts, Appel has had the big fastball, up to 97 mph, and an above-average to plus changeup and improved slider that he's commanding better than a year ago.

    It's difficult to imagine the 6-foot-5, 215-pound Appel falling beyond Boston at No. 7, and the Cubs at No. 2 could ultimately be the floor for him if he keeps up his current level of performance.

    Arms Race
    Ryne Stanek, perhaps Appel's stiffest competition at the top of the draft, did not post the line Appel did, but hit 97 mph as late as the sixth inning and flashed the plus slider. Stanek is athletic and throws from a low three-quarters arm slot creating fastball movement and decept...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 11

    By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-03-04
    Another day, another batch of runs, and now the suddenly Murderin’ Mariners have won nine in a row. The youngsters are playing well, the team can’t seem to go a day without launching a moonshot (Kendrys Morales did the honors yesterday), and it appears that fans are starting to get excited about the Mariners this year. That enthusiasm dovetails nicely with the schedule, as today, the M’s appear on Root Sports for the first time this spring. Game time is set for 12:05.

    While I’m excited to see the team for the first time this year, I’m also a little concerned that the spate of runs the M’s have scored is beginning to fuel unrealistic expectations for the season. We know better than to put any weight in Spring Training data, but baseball fans are suckers for new numbers, and many need a fix after the long offseason. Thus, we’re going to hear a lot from (some) fans and (some) media members about how well the Mariners are swinging their bats in the coming weeks, and how that might continue into April.

    With that in mind, I thought it might be useful to remind everyone that a strong showing in Spring Training has little bearing on what happens once the games start to count. To illustrate my point, here’s a list of the Cactus League winners over the last five years, with their regular season records in parentheses.

    2012: Oakland - 15-7 (94-68)
    2011: Kansas City- 20-10 (71-91)
    2010: Cleveland - 19-9 (69-93)
    2009: LA Angels - 26-8 (97-65)
    2008: Oak...

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    Bonderman's work cut out for him

    By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-03-04
    In the midst of his brief comeback attempt in the spring of 1991, a young college baseball coach told Jim Palmer "you'll never get into the Hall of Fame with those mechanics." Whether that was said tongue in cheek or not, we don't know. In a sense though, Palmer could pitch without pressure because he, famously, was already in the Hall of Fame. Despite his ease of mind and the state of the hapless '91 O's (who would go on to lose 95 games), Palmer didn't make the team out of Spring Training and he hung up his spikes for good that March.

    Jeremy Bonderman's audition with the Seattle Mariners this spring lacks the notoriety and amusing anecdote that accompanied Palmer's return, but he too is trying to crack a big league rotation after a lengthy spell away from the game. It wasn't too long ago that the former Pasco (Wash.) High School standout was regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

    Bonderman, now 30, broke into the majors at the ripe age of 20 and found himself atop the rotation for the American League champion Tigers just three years later. But inj...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 10

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-03
    The Mariners found themselves in an early three-run hole yesterday. So, naturally, I sent out a tweet sarcastically doubting their ability to come back. Truth be told, the way this streak has been going, we all knew they would. Yeah, yeah. I know. For the ten-thousandth time, allow me to toss out a spring training caveat and say that I know. Still, though. Isn't this a pretty sweet feeling? Hell, maybe the M's will keep giving us this feeling come April. That's the amazing thing about the uncertainty of a new season.

    Today, the Mariners see Michael Saunders (Canada), Michael Liddi (Italy) and Oliver Perez (Mexico) for the last time before they join their country's World Baseball Classic squads. Both Bay and Liddi are in the Mariners lineup this afternoon. Perez is not scheduled to pitch.

    In a funny only-in-spring happening, the Texas Rangers will have Lance Berkman lead off. Not that Berkman's bat and approach haven't been good enough to get on base throughout his career, but when you imagine "fleet of foot," he's not the first guy to come to mind. He needs to get some at-bats, though, so Ron Washington put him in the spot that should get him the most chances to do so.

    Berkman will be followed by 2B Ian Kinsler, LF David Murphy, 1B Brandon Allen, C Geovany Soto, CF Craig Gentry, RF Engel Beltre, 3B Mike Olt, and SS Jurickson Profar.

    Game time is set for 12:05 pm PT. You can switch your radio dial to 710 ESPN Seattle, point your desktop brows...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 9

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-02
    The Seattle Mariners are winners of seven straight games. Cactus League, American League or Little League. Winning seven contests in a row is good stuff for the psyche. Especially when done with homers and defensive gems. We'll see how the club looks when they get to much cooler Seattle, but for now they remain scorching hot.

    Today, the club hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers in Peoria. They'll take on southpaw Chris Capuano, who's resurrected his career nicely the last couple campaigns after only pitching in nine games from 2008-2010. His fist outing of the spring spanned two frames and saw him give up two long balls. The suddenly power-infused Mariners will look to keep that trend going.

    Top Prospect Mike Zunino gets his first start behind the dish today, batting seventh. He'll be the middle batter of perhaps Eric Wedge's comedic efforts. Say "Paulino-Zunino-Andino" several times fast just for fun.

    The game will be broadcast on 710 ESPN Seattle at 1:05 pm. You can also catch the action live via Gameday or the MLB At Bat app on your mobile device.

    Lineup
    8-R Franklin Gutierrez
    5-R Kyle Seager
    7-R Raul Ibanez
    3-S Justin Smoak
    9-R Casper Wells
    0-R Ronny Paulino
    2-R Mike Zunino
    6-R Robert Andino
    4-R Carlos Triunfel

    Pitchers for Saturday
    Hisashi Iwakuma will be opposite Capuano for the Mariners. He should go a couple innings and be followed Jeremy Bonderman, Oliver Perez, Kameron Loe, Charlie Furbush, D.J....

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    Hultzen on track for big leagues

    By: Ashley Varela on 2013-03-01
    For every offseason the Seattle Mariners let pass without making a significant trade, their fans grow a little more impatient for the arrival of their top-rated prospects. Behind Jesus Montero and Kelly Shoppach is top talent Mike Zunino. Behind Blake Beavan, Joe Saunders, and (dare I say it) Hector Noesi is The Big Four -- Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer, and Danny Hultzen. Not necessarily in that order.

    Of their prospect pool -- which is much more extensive than the five listed above -- Danny Hultzen may be the closest to kick-starting his big league career.

    Here's what Hultzen has done so far this spring:

    He's displayed excellent command, unleashing seven strikes in seven pitches during his first inning, fanning two of three batters faced. He's shown poise on the mound, escaping a bases-loaded jam in his second outing, including a strikeout. He's displayed evidence that he can learn from a rough experience in Triple-A and use it to his advantage.

    Now, that's a little generous considering the M's have barely passed the two-week mark in Cactus League play. It's also not quite that easy to dismiss Hultzen's 2012, which saw the 23-year-old southpaw plummet from a promising start in Double-A to a cringe-worthy debut in the Pacific Coast League.
    ...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 8

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-03-01
    So, how about those Seattle Mariners?

    Listen, pal. Don't rain on my parade with all this rubbish about the games not meaning anything. Yeah, Rational Alex agrees that they are just spring games and they do mask existing issues the club has, but so what? Irrational Alex loves it. Dingers! Runs! Wins! While I'll take these things with the grain of salt they deserve, I'll also take them with a smile on my face nonetheless.

    Yesterday, the M's decided that anyone on the club whose name contains "Franklin" should go yard. Thus, Franklin Gutierrez and Nick Franklin struck balls that flew over a fence in fair territory. Manager Eric Wedge had a gameplan and it was executed with perfection. The result: a 4-3 victory over the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants.

    The last-name Franklin hit his homer off of Giants ace Matt Cain. It was a rough couple innings for Cain, who also was teed-off on for doubles by Jesus Montero, Casper Wells and the white-hot Justin Smoak. Smoak has only had 12 at-bats this spring, but he's got his money worth with seven hits -- four for extra bases -- during that span. I know one player who wishes the season would start now.

    Jon Garland started and pitched one inning without incident. Blake Beavan's new delivery didn't quite turn into a pumpkin, but he didn't look as sparkly this time around as he gave up a couple runs (including a homer) in his three frames of work. Yoervis Medina, for some reason, plays fo...

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    Draft Weekly: Power buzz

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-28
    Draft Weekly will appear each Monday at Prospect Insider, recapping the weekend that was and spreading the buzz on the top prospects. This week's landed on Thursday due to the lite prep calendar and the scheduling here at PI.

    The word of the week in draft conversations this past week was "power." Power pitching, power hitting, power arm, power bat, power alley, power curveball ... you name it, it was said.

    The reason is because there are four college starting pitchers in the class -- Mark Appel, Jonathon Crawford, Ryne Stanek and Sean Manaea (pronounced muh-NYE-uh)-- that qualify as power arms, and the two top power hitters in the conversation for the top 15 are the subject of this week's buzz.

    Colin Moran, North Carolina's third baseman, may be the top hitter in the class but he doesn't profile to hit for a lot of power. Certainly not in the way of San Diego's Kris Bryant and Fresno State's Aaron Judge.

    Bryant, a right-handed hitting third baseman, has plus bat speed and a power swing and is off to a strong start, despite pedestrian numbers early. He's drawing walks and the swing has shown signs of improvement in terms of length.

    If he shows enough promise at the hot corner, it's difficult to see Bryant getting out of the top 20.
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    Spring Training Preview: Game 7

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-28
    The Seattle Mariners have won five straight Cactus League games and will go for No. 6 Thursday in Scottsdale versus the San Francisco Giants.

    The stories Wednesday were Danny Hultzen, who fanned four in two innings and Carlos Peguero, who homered twice. Hultzen has looked more like his usual self this spring after struggling to throw strikes last summer in Tacoma.

    Thursday's game can be heard live at Mariners.com. No television, but Monday's game versus the Rockies will be televised.

    Pitching Probables
    Right-hander Jon Garland makes his first start of the spring and hopes to fare better than Jeremy Bonderman. There's a long way to go -- four-plus weeks -- but starting off behind the 8-ball makes it very tough on a non-roster invitee, who already has to impress enough for the team to warrant sloughing off another 40-man roster member in order to keep him.

    Garland has not pitched in the majors since June 2, 2011.

    Matt Cain is on the hill for the Giants for the first few frames, giving the M's bats a nice challenge.

    Also scheduled to pitch
    Blake Beavan, RHP; Erasmo Ramirez, RHP; Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP; Carter Capps, RHP; Yoervis Medina, RHP; Chance Ruffin, RHP.

    Lineup
    1. Franklin Gutierrez, DH
    2. Eric Thames, LF
    3. Casper Wells, RF
    4. Justin Smoak, 1B
    5. Jesus Montero, C
    6. Julio Morban, CF
    7. Alex Liddi, 3B
    8. Nick Franklin, 2...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 6

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-02-27
    Another Cactus League game and another come from behind win for the Seattle Mariners as they toppled the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday 6-5. Down a run in the eighth inning, Carlos Peguero ripped a double the other way (no, seriously) so he could be on board when Justin Smoak demolished a pitch for a towering dinger to right.

    Throw out all the small sample and spring-doesn't-matter caveats you want. Smoak got a hittable pitch from a quality pitcher -- Milwaukee closer John Axford -- and didn't miss it. That means something.

    Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Saunders also had homers in the game. Theirs came in back-to-back fashion in the second inning off starter Yovani Gallardo. Gutierrez's shot was perhaps the most impressive of the day as it was hit over the 25-foot batters eye in dead center field, 400 feet from home plate. Here's what matters about that: Franklin Gutierrez is healthy and has his strength.

    Wednesday's contest comes on the road in Goodyear, where the M's will take on the re-tooled Cleveland Indians. The game will be broadcast on 710 ESPN Seattle on a delay (airing this evening). You can catch the broadcast live via Gameday or the MLB At Bat app on your mobile device.

    Lineup
    4-L Dustin Ackley
    7-R Casper Wells
    5-R Kyle Seager
    3-S Kendrys Morales
    0-L Raul Ibanez
    8-L Michael Saunders
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    2013 Rookie Watch

    By: Marc Hulet on 2013-02-26
    Injuries and unfulfilled expectations have always been huge parts of the game. We can safely state the 2013 season will be no different so organizational depth will play a huge role in the successes -- and failures -- of major league clubs as the year unfolds.

    Today, I'm rolling out what will be the first article in a continuing series throughout the coming season that will monitor and offer analysis on the Major League Baseball rookie class of 2013.

    This first piece will rank the balance of power among the potential rookie class by attempting to predict what leagues will see the most impact from rookies. In the coming weeks, I'll take a more in-depth view of each division.

    The Ranking
    1. AL West
    2. NL Central
    3. NL East
    4. AL Central
    5. AL East
    6. NL West

    An important thing to keep in mind with predicting rookie impact is playing time -- sometimes more so than talent. There are some impressive prospects that are close to contributing at the big league level but lack clear opportunities and face significant roadblocks.

    As well, just because a player possesses No. 1 starter potential or middle-of-the-lineup thump, it doesn't mean they'll be the next Mike Trout and immediately pr...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 5

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2013-02-26
    One of the prevailing public notions of spring training is that the games are meaningless. They are just exhibition games, you know, preseason games that don't amount to much once the season's underway. I get that come October, nobody's going to be talking about who won the Cactus League crown. I don't necessarily disagree with the notion, either. In the grand scheme of things, the results don't matter much.

    But I'm much more interested in the process, and the way that the players go about their business during these games are definitely meaningful to the future of the Seattle ballclub.

    The young bats were on display Monday when the Mariners faced off against the Padres. Justin Smoak and Julio Morban hit a double each, Dustin Ackley and Fransico Martinez each hit triples, and Seattle edged San Diego in a 9-8 victory. In his first at-bat, Brenden Ryan homered off of Chad Cordero. Alex Liddi also hit a home run in the 7th inning. The Mariners won in walk-off fashion off of a Morban single, and Martinez trotted home from third after hitting his first triple of the spring.

    With seven home runs, the Mariners are second in most bombs among AL clubs, trailing only the Indians with nine. Seattle has been lacking over the last few years in the power department, and it has been encouraging to see the likes of Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay and Smoak show of some muscle.

    Jeremy Bonderman gave up two hits and one walk in the first inning, but one of those hits was 3-r...

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    Welcome Ashley Varela

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-25
    Prospect Insider has agreed to terms with Ashley Varela on a 99-year contract with an option for year 100 that vests if any of us are alive for year 99. PI negotiated a buyout after year 75, but none of the involved parties believed it would ever become relevant.

    Ashley has written for several publications, including High Heat Stats and her own blog on the MLBlogs Network.

    Ashley will cover all things baseball, and we'll do our best not to allow her to sneak any hockey on these pages.

    Follow her on Twitter here and email her at Varela@Prospectinsider.com.

    Welcome aboard, Ashley....

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 4

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-02-25
    The Seattle Mariners got a weekend series win over the San Diego Padres with their 8-3 victory over the Friars. Hey, it's a meaningless series win at the beginning of spring, but you'll always take the feeling of victory over that of defeat.

    Facing former Mariners ace -- and Felix Hernandez hero -- Freddy Garcia, the first five M's batters reached safely, including a Raul Ibanez dinger and doubles by Michael Morse and Michael Saunders. In the game, the Mariners also got doubles from Robert Andino, Jesus Montero, Nick Franklin and Julio Morban. None of these were sun-ball doubles or anything, either. Each player hit the ball hard and earned their two-baggers.

    On the bump, RHP Erasmo Ramirez looked pretty sharp. Of his 15 pitches, 11 went for strikes and home plate umpire Brian Knight squeezed him out of a couple more. LHP James Paxton followed Ramirez and looked pretty good as well. While he gave up a single, he got through the four batters he faced with relative ease.

    The biggest struggle of the afternoon came from reliever Lucas Luetge, who gave up three knocks and walked a batter as he fought his way through the seven batters he faced. Luetge wasn't locating well throughout his stint.

    Monday's game will pit the Mariners against a divisional rival in the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Halos will have outfielder Mike Trout in the lineup for the first time this spring.

    The Mariners don't have a broadcast this afternoon. Your options for...

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    Spring Training Preview: Game 3

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-24
    The Seattle Mariners bounced back from a poor offensive effort in Game 1 of the Cactus League schedule with a 3-homer effort Saturday, including 2-run shots by Jason Bay and Justin Smoak.

    Smoak's came off right-hander Brad Boxberger on a 3-1 count. Bay also drew two walks.

    Other highlights include the 7-pitch masterpiece by left-hander Danny Hultzen. The seven offerings got Hultzen through three outs -- all were strikes, two were strikeouts. Think about that for a second.

    Taijuan Walker and Carson Smith also tossed a scoreless inning in relief of starter Blake Beavan, who unveiled his new delivery. The 6-foot-7 right-hander is trying to stay taller and on top of his pitches better in attempt to create more downward plane, which could help him induce more ground balls -- a good thing -- and more plane WILL help him keep the ball in the ballpark.

    The wind-up version of his new mechanics looks very similar to that of Derek Lowe, who, not coincidentally, has made a very good career out of getting ground balls. Beavan's slider may benefit most from this new delivery, but I don't expect enough change that he'll now have an out pitch.

    Sunday's tilt will again be on 710 ESPN Seattle -- check out new broadcaster Aaron Goldsmith and Rick Rizzs on the call.

    Lineup
    1. Kyle Seager, 3B
    2. Robert Andino, 2B
    3. Raul Ibanez, RF
    4. Michael Morse, LF
    5. Michael Saunders, CF
    6. Jesus Mont...

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    Welcome Michael Schwartze

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-23
    Prospect Insider is excited to announce the addition of Michael Schwartze to the staff. Michael will join our scouting and player development department and focus on Northwest Area draft prospects and well as the pro scene over the summer.

    Michael's work can also be found at MLB Dirt. Follow him on Twitter here and email him at Schwartze@Prospectinsider.com.

    Welcome Michael!...

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    Spring Training Game 2 Preview

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-02-23
    Our server got hungry and ate some posts yesterday. That won't stop us from continuing this series of game previews. We'll cover the pertinent info for each day's game and toss in some news and notes on prospects and position battles.

    The buzz of returning baseball quickly subsided yesterday when Mariners pitcher Hector Noesi couldn't command his pitches. Not even making it out of the first, Noesi gave up six runs, including four off a grand slam.

    Noesi started off the first batter -- how else -- 0-2. The next pitch was lifted to left and Raul Ibanez floundered about before watching the ball deflect off his glove. Ah, yes. Mariners baseball. How little you've changed.

    It was all part of a crazy first game of the spring after the long layoff, with the biggest highlight being Casper Wells launching a two run homer late in the contest. Oh, and Carlos Peguero had two walks. No, really.

    The M's will again face their hated natural rivals -- the San Diego Padres -- in the middle game of this opening three game series in the desert.

    Game time is 12:05 p.m. PT. You can tune in to 710 ESPN Seattle, your local Mariners Radio Network affiliate or online via MLB.com or the At Bat app at no charge during the spring schedule.

    Pitching matchup
    RHP Blake Beavan will climb the hill for the Mariners and face fellow righty Tyson Ross of the Padres.<...

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    New Additions to Prospect Insider

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-22
    In case you missed the announcements before the server gulped up the posts, Prospect Insider has added two new staffers in Hudson Belinsky and Marc Hulet.

    Hudson has written for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN SweetSpot affiliate Halos Daily, while Marc serves as FanGraphs.com's prospect guru creating organization Top 15s and an overall Top 100 prospect list each offseason.

    Both will cover scouting and player development on a national basis.

    Follow Hudson on Twitter @hudsonbelinsky and email him at belinsky@prospectinsider.com.

    Follow Marc on Twitter @marchulet and email him at hulet@prospectinsider.com.

    Welcome Marc and Hudson!...

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    M's won't miss Carp

    By: Brendan Gawlowski on 2013-02-20
    Mike Carp was designated for assignment last week and was traded to the Boston Red Sox early Wednesday in exchange for a player to be named later. That player will be one of four organizational types from which the club has to choose, reports Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.

    To a number of Mariners fans, Carp's ultimate departure has come as a surprise. Whatever his faults, Carp has a decent stick, and was one of the few bats capable of sending a ball into the seats during the offense's collective vacation over the last four years. Many are probably wondering why Carp, a player who has produced at the plate, rarely received an extended big league trial while other struggling players are still on the roster. Hopefully a closer look at Carp's numbers and skills will reveal why his leash with the organization was short and why the M's are unlikely to miss his production.

    Let's start with what Carp does well. He has a solid offensive profile and he's posted a respectable .255/.327/.413 line over roughly a full season's worth of major league at-bats. He draws a walk now and again and hits for decent power....

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    Welcome Brendan Gawlowski

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-20
    Prospect Insider's staff has grown this week, so join us in welcoming Brendan Gawlowski, who has spent the past year and a half at ProBallNW.com and also contributes to MLB Dirt.

    Brendan will be active in all realms, particularly Seattle Mariners news, analysis and prospect coverage. Follow Brendan on Twitter here and contact him via email at Gawlowski@ProspectInsider.com.

    ...

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    Spring Battles to Watch

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-20
    The Seattle Mariners added a handful of new players to the mix over the winter. A few of them are assured roster spots and roles, a few of them are not. There are also returning players without any guarantees. The result is a spring full of battles for roster spots.

    The club's starting rotation is not set at the back end, nor is the bullpen or the fourth outfielder role.

    Starting Rotation

    Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Joe Saunders will occupy the top three spots in the starting rotation, but the final two are up for grabs. Let's talk about the candidates.

    The Favorites
    Erasmo Ramirez, RHP
    Ramirez performed well at the big-league level in 2012, derailed only by an injury that cost him nearly two months due to rest and minor-league rehab and ultimately limited the right-hander to eight starts and 16 total appearances.

    The stuff is solid, perhaps equal to that of No. 3 starter, and Ramirez throws strikes consistently. The slider and curveball are both about average but the changeup is occasionally a plus offering and a weapon versus left-handed batters. The 92-95 mph fastball sets it all up, and when he commands the pitch early in the count he's a tough customer.

    Durability may...

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    Felix aftermath

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-13
    Wanted to ask a specific question of the masses here:

    Does the $175 million contract the Seattle Mariners just handed Felix Hernandez tell you as a fan that they aren't afraid to spend money? Does it give them any more credibility as an organization in your eyes? If so, how much?

    Things to remember:

  • $175 million is a ton of money. It's more than any other pitcher in baseball history and the ninth largest sports contract signed by any athlete. Ever.

  • It ranks ahead of CC Sabathia, Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki, any NFL or NBA -- ever.

  • It's a good deal for the team, too, wrote Dan Szymborski, who cited historical data as exhibit 1A, so it's not just a blind tossing of cash to try and save some face.


    • ...

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    Report Day

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-12
    I just want to take the temperature of the fan base of the M's: Pitchers and catchers reported Tuesday and the club completed the contract extension for Felix Hernandez. How 'ya feelin', now?

    - Discuss (40)
    Spring Training Countdown: 1 day

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-02-11
    There's one day left until the pitchers and catchers of your Seattle Mariners report to spring training.

    Today, we'll talk about Felix Hernandez's elbow, because that's all anyone wants to talk about, and I give the people what they want.

    Everybody needs to calm down
    Well, it was a pretty nice, calm Sunday when all of a sudden Buster Olney decided to ruin everyone's weekend when he tweeted that concerns over Felix Hernandez's elbow might be slowing down the proposed extension negotiations.

    First, let me make this abundantly clear. Buster Olney is good at his job. He isn't trying to ruin your day by breaking this news, he doesn't have any sort of coastal bias and he isn't making things up on the matter. Just the notion that people would think this way hurts my head, and I've got enough reasons for my head to hurt without that, so stop it.

    Now that I got that out of the way, this news did surprise me. Outside of 2007, I don't remember Hernandez ever having any issues with his elbow, and if he did, they did a great job concealing it. But, that's why teams have players take physicals. How long the Mariners have known Felix had an issue with his elbow is anyone's guess, but it obviously didn't concern them enough to sign him to an extension in 2009. This is for more years -- and a lot more money -- but you would think a significant elbow issue would have been leaked.

    I have no idea if this will prevent Seattle from being able to sign He...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 2 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-10
    Two days remain until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners, and it appears the signings of Joe Saunders and Jon Garland will be the final moves that occur before camp opens.

    When the offseason began there was at least hope among most fans that the M's would add at least one star offensive player. Josh Hamilton was targeted but signed with the Angels, instead. Seattle attempted to overpay for Justin Upton but could not convince the Virginia native to waive his no-trade clause and was subsequently dealt to the Atlanta Braves, his No. 1 preference in order to join his older brother.

    In the end, GM Jack Zdurencik made trades for Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales, and added veterans Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez on free agent contracts.

    The Mariners won 75 games a year ago and despite failing to add the all-stars in the middle of the order, the club figures to win 80-plus game in 2013, simply based on most likely outcomes of what is in place today. And 80 wins might be the basement.

    What such a projection does not take into consideration is the fact that this season Hisashi Iwakuma will be in the rotation from the start, rather than half the year, and the reasonable development of the younger players, such as Michael Saunders, Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager. There's also a good chance Franklin Gutierrez is healthier and is an upgrade over the time Chone Figgins, Trayvon Robinson, Mike Carp and Carlos Peguero...

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    2013 MLB Draft Preview

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-09
    This weekend Division I schools began their baseball season, so it's officially draft time, so to speak. The class is not particularly deep, but relatively speaking it has its strengths as well as its weaknesses.

    This is year two of the new mandate that puts a cap on spending, but one thing that did not change in 2012 is the fact that the best players don't come off the board first. Clubs are still working the system and finding ways to get better-than-slot talents after the first round.

    Let's take a look at the best in the class of 2013, at least how it appears at the start of the campaign.


    Potential first-round college pitching
    Mark Appel, RHP -- Stanford
    Sean Manaea, LHP -- Indiana State
    Ryne Stanek, RHP -- Arkansas
    Jonathan Crawford, RHP -- Florida
    Bobby Wahl, RHP -- Mississippi
    Dillon Overton, LHP -- Oklahoma
    Marco Gonzalez, LHP -- Gonzaga
    Ryan Eades, RHP -- LSU
    Kevin Ziomek, LHP -- Vanderbilt
    Tom Windle, LHP -- Minnesota
    A.J. Vanegas, RHP -- Stanford
    Trey Masek, RHP -- Texas Tech
    Colby Suggs, RHP -- Arkansas
    Jarsten Whitson, RHP -- Florida

    Appel, Manaea and Stanek could contend for the top overall pick. Suggs is the top college reliever in the class. Vanegas will not be healthy f...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 3 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-02-09
    Three days is all that stands between the Mariners' pitchers and catchers reporting to the Peoria Sports Complex for spring training.

    In today's edition, we'll talk about the Joe Saunders signing a little bit more signing and then some links to get you through the weekend.

    Saunders
    It was reported by Ken Rosenthal -- among others -- that the Mariners were closing in on signing Joe Saunders to a one year contract. It turns out that the contract is actually for $6.5 million with a chance to be $7.5, and there's a mutual option for 2014. Mutual options are almost universally declined, so it's probably safe to assume that this essentially is a one-year deal.

    I've never been a huge fan of Saunders, but the signing makes sense. He's never missed bats and he never will, but he’s durable with good control and decent command and generally keeps the ball below the knees. Because he is a pitch-to-contact guy, there are going to be starts where he gets shelled, but he was probably the best guy left on the market and the cash is reasonable.

    And now we have a little more clarity with the rotation as well. Three of the five spots -- Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and now Saunders -- are now locked up, and I think Erasmo Ramirez would have to be pretty terrible in Peoria for him not to earn a spot. Prospect Insider's Jason Churchill reported Friday that the M's and veteran Jon Garland have agreed to a deal, so assuming they don't make another move --...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 4 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-08
    With just four days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners, we continue to wonder about the 40-man roster.

    Why?

    Well, even though the club DFA'd Shawn Kelley Thursday to create space for catcher Kelly Shoppach, the signing of Joe Saunders, which is not yet official, will ultimately force another roster move.

    It's difficult to believe that if the club has to designate another player for assignment that it won't come from the following group:

    Yoervis Medina, RHP
    Mike Carp, 1B
    Alex Liddi, 1B/3B
    Carlos Peguero, RF

    If there are concerns about Chance Ruffin long term, he could be a candidate, too, and of course a trade of Carp, Justin Smoak, Eric Thames, Casper Wells or Hector Noesi is also possible.

    With Saunders in the fold, the M's may be thought to be out of the Rick Porcello chase. That may not necessarily be true, however. Keep an eye on that situation, and remember the name Jon Garland. The club scouted him this week and I'm told he looked decent to pretty good, depending on who you ask.

    Surprise Seattle?
    In crosschecking my work on the MLB Preview portion of this year's handbook this week, I get the sense that rival club's pro scouts and front offices kinda like the M's this year.

    Not to win the west or make the postseason, but as a club that could surprise some people and perhaps win more games than most expect.

    So I started asking that question Th...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 5 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-07
    Yes, just five days remain until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, but the topic of the day remains the reported extension agreement between the Seattle Mariners and ace right-hander Felix Hernandez. Alex Carson wrote that news up earlier Thursday.

    There was another roster move in the wake of the Felix news, however: Kelly Shoppach officially signed and to clear space on the 40-man the M's designated Shawn Kelley for assignment.

    I didn't see Kelley being the move, as it seems Carlos Peguero, Mike Carp and Yoervis Medina were better candidates since none are likely to help the big league club in 2013.

    Kelley, who just agreed to a one-year, $935,000 deal for this coming season, can be traded within the next 10 days, too, and I have to believe this was the plan all along and the club may already have a trade in the works for him.

    Before the offseason started, I assumed Kelley would be traded because he and Josh Kinney are virtually the same pitcher and Kinney is a tad cheaper and perhaps a little bit more reliable.

    The M's bullpen now projects somewhat differently and the departure of Kelley -- if he indeed moves on to another club -- could open the door for another arm.

    Depending on what happens with the rotation, that arm could be Chance Ruffin, Hector Noesi or even Erasmo Ramirez if the M's find another starter or two.

    Tom W...

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    Mariners Extend Felix Hernandez

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-02-07
    Just a short while ago, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported on twitter that the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez are on the verge of new, seven-year contract worth $175 million.

    Obviously, this should cause elation to fill your soul if you're a Mariners fan. Certainly, there's risk with giving this much money for this length to a any pitcher. However, if there was a player for this franchise to ever fork this kind of dough over to, it was Felix.

    Keep in mind: This is not a seven-year extension. It is a new, seven-year deal that gives Felix a raise for the next two seasons and tacks five more on. So comparing this to a seven-year contract isn't quite appropriate.

    Had Felix made it to free agency after the 2014 season, the Mariners would be looking at offering Felix a seven-year deal that would have to match or beat whatever Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw get. So, instead of playing to what the market dictated, the Mariners are the ones setting the market for those other arms.

    While calling a contract worth $25 million annually a bargain would be a bit of a stretch, the M's may very well end up with a pretty good deal on their hands should Felix stay healthy for the duration. As it stands, this deal will run through Felix's age 34 season as opposed to one that may have ran through his age 36 season at a higher annual cost.

    This goes beyond his tale...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 6 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-02-06
    We're now under a week -- also known as 'six days' -- until the Seattle Mariners pitchers and catchers report for spring training.

    Today I'll talk about Keith Law's top 100 prospect list, and the intra-division trade between the Athletics and Astros.

    Keith Law's top 100
    For those of you who live under a rock, Keith Law released his top 100 prospects Tuesday and four Seattle Mariners made the list. I won't divulge any of the scouting reports he released since that is subscriber-only information, but since the rankings are privy to everyone, I'll talk about the omission of James Paxton and the "low" placement of Danny Hultzen.

    First -– and this should be obvious but for some reason it's not –- just because a prospect isn't included on the list doesn't mean that Law dislikes the prospect, so try not to overreact. In fact, you probably shouldn't overreact to any prospect list, but that's another article for another day.

    As for his lack of inclusion, I probably would have had Paxton in the top 100 but it wouldn't have been terribly high. The fact remains that he's still a volatile arm and if the stuff or command drop ev...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 7 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-05
    Pitchers and catchers report in one week and 10 days later the Seattle Mariners play their first Cactus League game.

    There hasn't been much to report on the player movement front, but there isn't a lot left that can happen. Let's discuss the few options that are left.

    Making room for Shoppach
    With the signing of catcher Kelly Shoppach, the M's will have to create room on the 40-man roster, which is why the club has not announced the addition officially.

    They're trying to add a starting pitcher, either by trade or free agency, and if it's via trade they could create two spots to add the pitcher and Shoppach. If there is no trade, which could ultimately include a bullpen arm or a fringe 40-man roster member, the only option to designate a player for assignment.

    The top candidates for that are Mike Carp, Yoervis Medina, Alex Liddi and Carlos Peguero. Hector Noesi could also be a candidate, but I doubt the club will give up on him this quickly -- there's little chance he goes unclaimed, despite a poor 2012.

    Starting pitching options
    Kyle Lohse isn't likely to be a target at any point, but Rick Porcello, Joe Saunders and Chris Capuano continue to be.

    Derek Lowe has yet to be linked to the Mariners, and the same goes for Chris Young...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 8 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-02-04
    There are just eight days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for your Seattle Mariners. Eight days a week is not enough to show I care. I promise that's my last The Beatles joke I'll ever make on Prospect Insider.

    Today I'll clarify a position I took on Twitter, provide some links around the division, and I'll tell you what today officially means.

    Clarifying my stance on Bourn
    As many of you know, I am a fan of Michael Bourn. I think he's one of the best centerfielders in baseball, and I think he provides a ton of value on the bases. I'm such a fan of him, that I would be willing to sign him if it meant giving up the No. 12 pick in the draft. Jason and I disagree on this, and that's okay. He's smarter than I am and we occasionally disagree on some things.

    What I would not -- repeat -- not be in favor of, is signing Bourn to either a one-year deal, or signing him to a long-term deal with big AAV. If you're going to give up a top fifteen draft pick, and the slot money that comes with it, it has to come at your terms.

    The chances of this happening, however, are slim. I would imagine if Bourn can-t get his four- or-five year contract, he would want to sign for one season and go back out there in a weak free-agent crop next offseason....

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    Spring Training Countdown: 9 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-03
    While there are just nine days until pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners, there are also only 123 days until the draft. Yes, that is how we think around here. Admit it, some of you do, too.

    There are a few things that need to be cleared up, however.
    The report dates for those players on final rosters for the World Baseball Classic is irrelevant. They'll join the club once their countries are eliminated, or once the champion is determined

    The M's on the provisional rosters will find out if they are on the final version by February 20. The following players in the M's organization are candidates:

    Michael Saunders, OF -- Canada
    Felix Hernandez, RHP -- Venezuela
    Alex Liddi, 3B -- Italy
    Thyago Vieira, RHP -- Brazil
    Oliver Perez, LHP -- Mexico
    Luiz Gohara, LHP -- Brazil
    Brian Sweeney, RHP -- Italy
    Kalian Sams, OF -- Netherlands
    Pedro Okuda, IF -- Brazil

    Expect Sweeney, Liddi, Saunders, Perez and Hernandez to be on the final rosters and not in big league camp in Peoria.

    Other Important Dates for 2013
    February 15:     M's full squad reports
    February 22: M's vs. Padres Charity Game
    March 2-10: World Baseball Classic First Round
    March 8-16: World Basebal...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 10 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-02-02
    We're just 10 days away from the Seattle Mariner pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. It's also Groundhog Day. Groundhog Day is probably one of my 10 favorite comedies. But you don't come here for my favorite movies. That's why you follow me on Twitter.

    Today we'll talk about two non-roster invitees that I could see making the club at some point. I'll link you to some amazing stuff and let you know where to go after the spring training games if you like a certain beverage with barley and hops.

    Two NRI's that could help
    There are three different types of non-roster invites; there's the high-level prospect that appeases the fan base, there's the aging veteran who has a slim chance to make the roster if there's injuries or he tears the cover off the ball, and then there's the young bullpen arm that you want to see do well against major league hitters.

    The Seattle Mariners have all three groups represented this year, and while I wouldn't expect these guys to make the club out of spring training, I wouldn't be surprised if they contributed at some point this year.

    Carson Smith was a player that I thought would go in the first four rounds of the 2011 draft, and I was thrilled when...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 11 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-02-01
    With 11 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report for spring training the Seattle Mariners continue their search for starting pitching and otherwise ready themselves to evaluate what they have. There are still many improvements necessary to expect the club to contend, but the other clubs in the division, including the three that finished in the top spots in the American League West a year ago.

    Let's discuss the enemies of the Mariners.

    Texas Rangers
    The Rangers, still the most talented team in the division, in my opinion, albeit by a small margin, they do have missing pieces. As of now, the starting outfield in Arlington would likely be Craig Gentry, Nelson Cruz and David Murphy with Leony Martin the top reserve. That isn't exactly a championship caliber unit and pales in comparison to that of the A's and perhaps the Mariners, too.

    Gentry can run, isn't a terrible hitter and can play defenser, but Cruz is declining, a well below average defender and there's a chance he's suspended for 50 games as one of the players named in the reports by the Miami New Times in connection with a company in Florida known to administer performance enhancing substances.

    General manager Jon Daniels says they aren't pursuing free agent Michael Bourn and Justin Upt...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 12 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-31
    There are just 12 days left until pitchers and catchers reports -- and 47 days until Opening Night at defending American League West champ Oakland. are you starting to feel it a little bit? if you aren't go get yourself checked, there may truly be something wrong with you. Now. If you are, read on, please.

    The news of the week is the PED garbage in south Florida, but in terms of real baseball news there isn't much to discuss. It's that time of year.

    Michael Bourn, Joe Saunders and Kyle Lohse still sit on the free agent market hoping some team will give them what they want. For Saunders it's a three-year contract. For Lohse it's a good chance to win and a three-year deal, or a four-year contract. For Bourn, reportedly, it's still all about a five-year contract.

    The Rangers seem to be the best fit, but not at four or five years. Stay tuned on that front, but the Mariners, wisely, do not appear to be part of the market for the 30-year-old centerfielder, despite reports that they are among the favorites.

    Peoria bullpens
    The Seattle Mariners, tweeted Evan Drellich Wednesday, were among the clubs watching 35-year-old Kip Wells throw a bullpen session. Also throwing were fo...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 13 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-01-30
    There are 13 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. The greatest player to wear the number 13 for Seattle is pretty clearly Omar Vizquel. I don't think he's a hall of famer, but we'll save that debate for another day (maybe).

    Today I'll talk about a couple of different rankings that came out today, and some stuff for the family to do when you're not watching baseball in Arizona.

    Tomorrow, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners will be announced, but I had a chance to see some rough numbers. In a word, it's not pretty, but let me talk about some of the positives that came out from the report. After all, Mr. Positive is my nickname around here. Right? Hello? Anyone?

    First, let me say that I think Szymborski does fabulous work, so let's not bash him in the comments. Now that that's out of the way, I'll say that there are numbers that give me hope. Dustin Ackley's projection, for one. Considering how bad he was offensively, for him to be projected to be a three win player (ZiPS generally projects on the safer side) is promising. He also has some promising numbers for Kyle Seager. And that Felix guy? Yeah, he should be pretty good again.

    One area that I disagree with, however...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 14 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-01-28
    There are 14 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. Two weeks folks, two weeks. Also, keep in mind that the first game -- the charity game against San Diego -- is February 22nd, and you should probably look into buying tickets for those games now, if you haven't already.

    In today's edition, I'll talk more about the bullpen, Mike Zunino, and offer you a friendly reminder about your upcoming trip to Peoria to visit Jason and me.

    Bullpen construction
    A few days ago I talked about the Mariners possibly going with an eleven-man pitching staff to start out the year thanks to some roster inefficiencies, mainly versatility. One thing I came to notice as I studied last year's roster, however, is that the Mariners didn't really carry a long man last year. If they were to break tradition and go with one fewer arm than usual, one would think that would be a necessity.

    Or would it? Last year, of the thirteen pitchers who appeared in relief for Seattle last year, only Hishashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez and Steve Delabar averaged an inning or more per appearance. Once Ramirez got hurt, and Iwakuma was (finally) promoted to the rotation, the Mariners didn't carry a long reliever for the rest of the year.

    However, let...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 15 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-28
    There are 15 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. Notably, the minor leaguers will officially report March 1.

    The M's may be close to adding another catcher and continue to work on adding a starting pitcher, but as the report dates approach, let's talk about some roster battles.

    Outfield
    Presuming the Mariners do not add another outfielder, the Opening Day outfield is likely to consist of Franklin Gutierrez, if healthy, Michael Morse and Michael Saunders. If Gutierrez stubs a toe, Eric Thames, Casper Wells, Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay could become options.

    The roster cannot carry them all, and may not be able to carry more than four, so Bay, Thames and Wells could be fighting it out for one spot. The most likely to be traded is Thames, though if Bay is 100 percent and producing during spring games deep into the Cactus League season, Wells probably takes over that title.

    Catcher
    If a veteran such as Kelly Shoppach is added, Ronny Paulino will serve as depth in case of injury, unlikely to make the 25-man roster. Shoppach has had some solid seasons at the plate in the past, though he struggled the second half of last season and will be 33 in April. I wonder how much is left in the tank.

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    Spring Training Countdown: 16 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-01-27
    There are 16 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. If there were eight days in a week, we’d be just two away from reporting. Unfortunately, there’s only seven days in a week. That's the world class analysis you keep coming back to Prospect Insider for, I know. You’re welcome.

    In today's edition I'll talk about Daisuke Matsuzaka, provide some links to what the other four teams (it’s going to take a while for me to get used to that) are talking about as they prepare to report, and a few places that I like to eat when I'm in Peoria/Phoenix.

    Daisuke Matsu-nothankyou
    It was recently reported by a couple different sources that the Mariners might be considering signing Daisuke Matsuzaka. One would have to be this would be a one year, incentive-laden deal with no guarantee to make a roster, based on his struggles on the mound and the fact that he's only made eighteen starts over the last two years.

    I would have no issue with giving Matsuzaka a chance in spring training and seeing where his stuff plays, but to say that my expectations would be low is the understatement of this year so far. He's never had very good command, and he no longer is a guy that compensates by missing bats.

    If Seattle decides not...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 17 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-26
    There are 17 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. That's just over 400-some hours, or so, depending on when you read this.

    Generally the final days leading up to the reports dates are quiet, but there are a few key free agents that have yet to sign and a couple of those names have been linked to the Mariners.

    We've talked about Michael Bourn quite a bit, but left-hander Joe Saunders we have not. So let's do so.

    Joe Saunders, LHP
    Saunders reportedly is seeking a three-year contract and has at least three clubs with interest. The Mets were a fourth but after signing right-hander Shaun Marcum they are likely out of that mix.

    The Orioles could be out, too, after signing Jair Jurrjens, but Jurrjens is far from reliable and the O's may be Saunders' preference.

    The Twins have made an offer and are waiting for Saunders' decision.

    Seattle was not linked to Saunders until this week, but he makes more sense than does Rick Porcello or free agent Kyle Lohse. Porcello would cost talent -- Detroit isn't going to give him away -- and he's set to earn $5.1 million this season with a chance to get to $9 or higher for 2014. Lohse is believed to be looking for three or more years also, plus he'd cost the M's...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 18 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2013-01-25
    There are 18 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. That's more than 440-some hours, or so, depending on when you read this, 25,920 minutes, 1,555,222 seconds and probably at least one 40-man roster addition, which is likely to come in the form of a starting pitcher.

    Today I'll talk to you about roster flexibility, a few of the links making their way around the blogosphere, and the one thing I can't recommend enough about your stay in Peoria. You are all coming to Peoria right? You should be.

    Flexibility, or lack thereof
    As the roster starts to take shape, one thing you may notice is that it doesn't appear that the Mariners have a lot of versatility on their roster. If you look at the depth chart here on the Mariner home page, you'll see that they currently have a projected bench of Robert Andino, Ronny Paulino, Casper Wells, and either Raul Ibanez or Jason Bay. Not exactly four Mark McLemores.

    One thing this might lead to -- and in my mind it's a positive thing -- is that it might mean the Mariners chose to go with 11 pitchers instead...

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    The still-broken system, Bourn

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-24
    Shortly after the league and players association agreed to the most recent collective bargaining agreement I wrote about the changes to the draft still leaving a broken system, full of flaws.

    Another of those flaws is popping up this week. Thursday, USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweets that the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets are the favorites for centerfielder Michael Bourn.

    Bourn is a fine player, but he'd cost both teams their first-round pick. The Mets pick No. 11 and the Mariners No. 12. Only the top 10 picks are protected from the compensation system.

    The Mets, ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin writes, may officially challenge the league to make an exception to that rule because the only reason the Mets pick is outside the top 10 is because the Pittsburgh Pirates failed to sign Mark Appel, last June's No. 8 pick, and were awarded the No. 9 overall pick in this year's draft as compensation.

    The CBA stipulates the top 10 picks, not the 10 worst records. That needs to change.

    But the idea that free agents out there are dangling because of draft-pick compensation is ridiculous. The compensation rules need to be changed -- again -- or better yet abolished altogether.

    ...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 19 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-24
    There are 19 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. That's 460-some hours, or so, depending on when you read this, 27,600 minutes, 1,656,000 seconds and probably at least one 40-man roster addition, which is likely to come in the form of a starting pitcher. [There may be news on that front, see below for update.]

    Yesterday I made a few recommendations for your trip to Peoria, but most won't be able to make the trip. Today, let's talk about what spring training can be like from afar and the kinds of things that matter most.

    On the field
    You won't be able to see a lot of games -- zero workouts, zero minor league games -- but Prospect Insider will fill in the gaps as much as possible, and other outlets will have reports, too.

    When it comes to what matters, here are some things to ignore, or take with a grain of salt:

  • Reports on radar readings from bullpen sessions

    • They can mean something but how hard a kid can throw is a very, very small part of the equation. So hopefully those reports, wherever you hear or read them, are accompanied by something with some substance.

  • Injuries

    • Unless it's a major situation, the injury reports get overblown in spring training. Teams are e...

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    Spring Training Countdown: 20 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-23
    There are 20 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. That's 480-some hours, or so, depending on when you read this, 28,880 minutes, 1,728,000 seconds and probably at least one 40-man roster addition, which is likely to come in the form of a starting pitcher.

    Spring training is different for everyone; some like the traditional fan experience of going to the big-league games in the sun and catching a glimpse of the stars such as Felix Hernandez in an intimate environment.

    I highly recommend a different approach.

    Sure, go see a big-league game or two. Check one or two out during an afternoon tilt, go to one of the few night games, if you can, and enjoy that side of spring training. But spring training is great for the following reasons:

    1. The Minor League Fields
    Behind the stadium at the Peoria Sports Complex sit the minor league fields. On one side, the M's minor leaguers train and play there spring games. On the other, the San Diego Padres do the same.

    Go. Go see the kids. It's like walking onto a youth league field -- it's FREE, informal and you get to watch batting practice, infield practice and bullpen sessions. If you're an autograph seeker, stick around until they call it a day and head back t...

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    Next moves for M's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-19
    The Seattle Mariners, after acquiring Michael Morse during the week, are probably a piece or two from being done adding players this offseason, unless a unique opportunity presents itself.

    The club obviously needs a catcher, maybe two for spring competition purposes, and could use a starting pitcher. Let's discuss the possibilities.

    Catchers
    The free agent market doesn't have a lot of intriguing options, but here's what is available:

    Rod Barajas
    Koyie Hill
    Miguel Olivo
    Matt Treanor
    Kelly Shoppach
    Brian Schneider
    Ronny Paulino
    J.R. Towles
    Chris Snyder
    George Kottaras*

    The M's are likely to focus mostly on defense with the catcher search, which may eliminate Barajas and Shoppach, each of whom are believed to be seeking guaranteed money into seven figures.

    Kottaras, who was designated for assignment after the A's traded for John Jaso, is a similar defender, perhaps worse, and is best used as a third catcher and pinch hitter.

    Flores is of interest to me; sound defender with some plate skills.

    The trade route isn't an impossible path, but clubs are generally done moving significant pieces.

    There are a few names worth looking into, however:

    Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres
    Ryan Hanigan, Cincinnati Reds
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox
    Jeff Mathis, Miami Marlins

    I don't see a match with Boston for Saltalamacchia, plus he's a bat first and below-average glove. Hundl...

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    Jaso for Morse

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-16
    Reports surfaced Wednesday -- first by the FOXSports.com duo of Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi via Twitter -- that the Seattle Mariners have traded John Jaso in a three-team deal with the Washington Nationals and Oakland Athletics.

    The details are a bit sketchy at the moment, but Michael Morse is heading to Seattle in the deal with Jaso landing in Oakland and right-handed pitching prospect A.J. Cole heading back to Washington from where he was traded last year in a package deal for Gio Gonzalez.

    CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler tweets that the Nationals will be getting two prospects in the deal, so one more with Cole, and Morosi tweets that it will come from the A's.

    From the perspective of the Nationals -- win. They get Cole, a potential frontline starter within a few years of the majors and two unnamed prospects that could be players to be named later.

    From the A's point of view, I don't really get it, entirely. Jaso can hit, but he's a part-time player and a below-average defender. They have George Kottaras, a very similar hitter to Jaso, so perhaps there is more to this deal than we know just yet.

    For the Mariners, if the swap remains Jaso-for-Morse and nothing more coming in or going out, the club has es...

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    Upton rejects deal to M's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-10
    Justin Upton has reportedly rejected a trade to the Seattle Mariners, invoking his limited no-trade clause, a list that includes the M's as well as the Red Sox, Cubs and Blue Jays.

    The buzz right now is about what the Mariners offered the Arizona Diamondbacks. The information I am getting varies, so I can't divulge, and just prior to publishing this I was told the M's "may have been getting two players back, not just Upton."

    As for what the actual offer was, we may never know -- we almost certainly will never know -- but it's difficult to believe the D-backs would have taken a deal not headlined by right-hander Taijuan Walker.

    Other names mentioned to me include relievers Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, left-hander Danny Hultzen and shortstop Brad Miller, but I have to believe Walker was part of it.

    Walker is where I have drawn the line for months. If it were a straight-up 1-for-1, I'd consider it strongly. Walker plus others for three years of Upton? No thanks.
    ...

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    Make your trade proposals

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-09
    Yes, this is exactly what you think it is. A place for trade proposals to be made.

    There are five rules to make a proposal and avoid having it deleted. These rules are necessary, I'm sure you can decipher why.

    1. One proposal per person
    Multiple proposals will be deleted, amended proposals will also be deleted, but in conversation style you can certainly respond to the reactions of others.

    2. Make it realistic
    Multiple team trades are ridiculously rare and difficult, but if you do the work -- cover all the angles, explain IN DETAIL why EACH team might consider such a deal -- it will be allowed. Otherwise, it will be deleted, no questions asked.

    No bulk trades. What I mean by this is BE REALISTIC. Miami isn't trading Stanton to Seattle for eight B and C prospects. He's a star, propose a trade of potential stars for him.

    3. No specific cash amounts
    If you feel some cash may be necessary, just say that. Throwing out an exact amount is such a wild guess that it's not worth it and simply adds another element that others can disagree with. Just remain general.

    4. Remember MLB's rules
    2012 draft picks are not eligible right now, even as players to be named later. No '12 draftees or your proposal will be deleted.

    5. No rosterbation
    Within your proposal, discuss parts of the lineup or the potential impact of the player or players involved, but do NOT list a projected lineup or rotatio...

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    M's near top of Stanton suitors

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2013-01-02
    The Miami Marlins are not shopping star right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Some reports suggest the team will listen to offers and that no player is untouchable, but they do not appear to be pushing to trade the 23-year-old, nor should they, despite the player's dismay resulting from the club's trading of the entire veteran presence -- pretty much any player making any money at all -- in a blockbuster deal with the Toronto Blue Jays in November.

    The Marlins' stance could change sometime this coming summer, or by this time next year, however, as Stanton becomes arbitration eligible and his value shoots through the roof.

    Stanton, a right-handed batter, batted .290 with a .361 on-base percentage and 37 home runs in 2012 at the age of 22. He's not a walk machine, but as pitchers become more and more careful with him, the maturation of his plate discipline will dictate the base on balls totals. The power is darned near limitless. It's easy and the loft is natural and anytime he squares up a pitch the ball jumps off his bat reminisce of Alex Rodriguez in his prime, performance enhancing substance and all.

    Stanton is also a good defensive right fielder with above-average speed and a plus arm. The foot fleetness may suffer a bit as he matures physically, but he's a...

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    The Mariners 2012 in Review

    By: Alex Carson on 2013-01-01
    The past calendar year saw quite a bit of action from the Seattle Mariners. Though it didn’t reflect positively in the big club’s won-loss record, there were several things we can reflect on as the team continues to retool and climb back to relevance.

    We know. You wanted sexier names. Bigger bats. Run support for Felix Hernandez. We did, too.
    It’s become extremely difficult to sell an offensive- and win-deprived fan base on the positive improvements of the organization these days, so please don’t expect this beach bum to try and talk you into buying a bucket of sand.

    Rather, as you watch college football and rehydrate, let’s look flip the pages on this year back and explore together the journey the Mariners took.

    January
    The year opened with rumors that the Mariners were in hot pursuit of one Prince Fielder. Some called the club the “favorites” to land his services before he ultimately opted to join the Detroit Tigers on a nine-year pact near the end of the month.

    At the time, the fan base had mixed emotions on the trade swung in the middle of the month – RHP Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for C/DH Jesus Montero. Pineda had just turned in a marvelous rookie campaign, showing poise and command not often seen from a kid of his age and size. However, the Yankees again dangled their sparkly prospect that had people dreaming about his powerful future.

    The other addition of significance was one that would take a few months for...

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    Winter Notebook

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-29
    It's been a few weeks now since Josh Hamilton spurned the Seattle Mariners' best offer to sign with the Los Angeles Angels and last week Nick Swisher inked a deal with the Cleveland Indians, removing yet another good hitter from the market.

    The M's are running out of options, but as I wrote a few weeks back, there are still some options out there that could become more possible than is presently believed, though they all remain unlikely.

    Let's touch on those one-by-one:

    Michael Bourn, CF -- Free Agent
    Bourn brings big-time center field defense and 80 speed to the table, but giving the 30-year-old a 4-year deal worth $12-15 million per season does not appeal to me.

    The M's may feel differently, but I see great potential for decline from Bourn before the rest of the M's roster is ready to contend. Both the decline and the contention could come in 2014, and because the M's aren't an organization capable of covering up big-money mistakes with more money, I believe they should stay away from Bourn -- if he's going to cost that kind of money.

    If Bourn were a special talent, I'd feel differently, but he's posted an OBP over .350 just once in his career, would be coming to a new league and the one year I'd feel best about -- his age 30 season (versus 31, and beyond) -- he'd have some sort of adjustment period that could last much of the season.

    If B...

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    Swisher vs. Morales

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-23
    One of the more popular free agents for Seattle Mariners fans this offseason is Nick Swisher, a switch-hitting outfielder who has spent the majority of his career on good teams and has been as consistent at the plate as any player in the game.

    Sunday, Swisher signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Cleveland Indians. That's a solid contract for the team, though as ESPN Insider's Keith Law writes, the Indians aren't the team that can take advantage of that very effectively.

    M's fans wanted Swisher, but for whatever reason, either Swisher didn't want Seattle or Seattle didn't want Swisher. I think it was both.

    The Mariners could have afforded the $56 million for such a player, but they also would have sacrificed the No. 12 overall pick; the Indians will lose their second-round selection, since their first-round pick is in the top 10.

    The way the Mariners draft -- very well, as good as any club in the game -- that pick is more valuable to them than most, so I get the reluctance, and ultimate refusal to give up that pick for a 4-win player.

    The title of this piece -- Swisher vs. Morales -- is not about contending that Morales is a better player than Swisher. He's not, though it could be a lot closer in 2013 than it has been the past few years.

    In 2009, Morales' last healthy s...

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    Ibanez, Bonderman and lineup stuff

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-23
    Since the club completed the trade with the Los Angeles Angels this past week, the Seattle Mariners have signed two free agents. First, the M's inked right-hander Jeremy Bonderman to a minor league contract. Saturday, veteran Raul Ibanez signed a one-year deal worth a reported $2.75 million.

    The first reactions sent to me from readers and fans after Ibanez's deal bordered between puzzlement and downright anger. Let's see if I can talk those down from the ledge.

    Ibanez, 39, possesses eroding physical tools that make him a disaster in the outfield and a platoon bat, at best. He hasn't posted league-average numbers in batting average or on-base percentage since 2009, and the chances he ever does so again are closer to zero than slim.

    So why did the Seattle Mariners sign him?

    First of all, it's $2.75 million, not a 5-year, $90 million contract. The money given to Ibanez, nor the roster spot, is not an obstacle to anything else -- not a prospect, not another free agent signing and not another trade acquisition.

    Second, Mariners money is deflated.

    Third, if Ibanez is used properly, it's actually a good signing.

    Don't think of Ibanez as if the club sees him as a "big bat." Trust me, they do not. Jack Zduriencik does not see a legitimate cleanup hitter in Ibanez, and the M's management is not attempting to pull the wool over the eyes of the fan base as if to suggest Ibanez is any kind of alternative to Josh Hamilton.

    Thin...

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    Morales acquisition a good one for M's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-19
    The Seattle Mariners have acquired Kendrys Morales from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for left-hander Jason Vargas, the team announced Wednesday afternoon.

    Morales, 29, and Vargas, 29, are each slated for free agency following the 2013 season, though the two players will make vastly different salaries. Vargas should get to $8 million, possibly higher, and Morales, who made just under $3 million this past season, is likely to earn somewhere between $5 million and $5.5 million.

    Certainly, there's nothing stopping either team from working out a multi-year solution, but as it is it's a terrific deal for both sides.

    The Halos were looking for an inexpensive, short-term innings eater and the Mariners need all the offense they can get. Vargas is likely to approach or exceed 200 innings again and Morales could be a step closer to regaining the form that led him to a superb 2009 season in which he belted 34 home runs and posted a .924 OPS.

    Morales is a switch hitter, but he's much better from the left side over the course of his career. When he's at his best he's torching the gaps for doubles and stroking line drive home runs. He's not going to walk a lot, but he limits the strikeouts and can handle first base if necessary.

    Not that this means much, but Morales sports a .292/.346/.558 triple-slash in 34 career games at The Safe.

    Morales can bat anywhere around the middle of the order and serve as an upgrade for the M's, allowing the youn...

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    Projecting Hamilton at 36

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-12-18
    For the second year in a row, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have flexed financial muscle to obtain the most coveted free agent on the market. The Angels are paying Josh Hamilton, based on average annual value, as much as the Philadelphia Phillies are paying Ryan Howard. Whether or not you think Hamilton's worth the cash, there's no doubt that the Angels have made a statement: win now at any cost. Many baseball pundits are saying that the Halos are the biggest threat in the American League, but I'm not so sure.

    While browsing over Hamilton's stats, one thing stood out. The number of strikeouts he had in 2012 increased almost 50 percent, jumping to 162 strikeouts from 93 in 2011. As I was about to start my investigation, the folks over at Fangraphs addressed his contact issues. So rather than rehash that research, I decided to try to project how he will perform in the future based on an age curve.

    Before we look at how Josh Hamilton could perform, it's worth noting that he's had a major league c...

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    Timing not right for M's to pay price

    By: Justin Hendrix on 2012-12-14
    There is no debate -- the "price to play," or the price to try and contend, if you will -- is going up throughout Major League Baseball. The addition of the second Wildcard means more teams have a shot at the postseason. Lucrative television deals across the sport are allowing more teams to spend freely. The new age of Twitter and other social media, MLB on every device, and the Winter Meetings being more popular than the World Series is creating a "must win now" or "make big splash" era in baseball.

    With the advent of that second Wildcard there is a high demand for immediate assistance for clubs to go from mediocre to legitimate, coupled with the lack of supply to meet the demand. The 1995 season saw the addition of the original Wildcard and without it the Seattle Mariners' miraculous run may not have happened. Although the M's ended up winning the American League West that year, it was the Wildcard that allowed GM Woody Woodward to add Andy Benes, Vince Coleman, Norm Charlton and others as the club steamrolled its way to October.

    The Information Age is creating a pressure cooker for clubs to start winning games, and coupled with the new revenues that allow more teams to spend and compete, the value of a prospect in trade is not the same as it was even 4-5 years...

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    Potential new developments

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-11
    With the three-team deal consummated Tuesday night between the Cleveland Indians, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Seattle Mariners could feel some of the backlash. Before we get to that, lets take a look at the trade in its entirety.

    Cleveland Indians Receive:
    RHP Trevor Bauer
    RHP Matt Albers
    RHP Bryan Shaw
    CF Drew Stubbs

    In Exchange For:
    OF Shin-Soo Choo
    IF Jason Donald
    LHP Tony Sipp
    1B Lars Anderson
    $3.5 million

    Cincinnati Reds Receive:
    OF Shin-soo Choo
    IF Jason Donald
    $3.5 million

    In Exchange For:
    CF Drew Stubbs
    SS Didi Gregorius

    Arizona Diamondbacks Receive:
    SS Did Gregorius
    1B Lars Anderson
    LHP Tony Sipp

    In Exchange For:
    RHP Trevor Bauer
    RHP Bryan Shaw
    RHP Matt Albers

    This trade gives the Diamondbacks a young shortstop, though there is serious doubt as to the upside of the 23-year-old Gregorius, particularly due to his lack of on-base skills and any semblance of power.

    They give up on Bauer, with many in the game believing the Snakes' disenchantment with the former No. 3 overall pick was based on the right-hander's unwillingness to change his pre-game rituals that some clubs do not believe will work for a big-league pitcher over the course of 30-35 starts.

    Arizona also gave up two useful relievers to work the sixth, seventh and eighth innings.

    The Reds' motivation appears to be all about...

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    Where the M's turn now

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-09
    If you've been lying under a rock the past few days and are just now waking up and climbing to the surface, you'll soon learn that Zack Greinke has agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Kansas City Royals have made a blockbuster trade with the Tampa Bay Rays that includes top prospect Wil Myers.

    Both transactions impact the Seattle Mariners, with the Texas Rangers perhaps more likely to spend on Josh Hamilton than if they'd signed Greinke, and the Royals being a club the M's had been linked to -- for Myers and DH Billy Bulter -- for some time.

    It would seem the chance the Royals trade another hitter is minuscule if not completely non-existent, so scratch that idea off the list.

    The situation with Hamilton isn't nearly as clear and there's still a chance the Rangers acquire Justin Upton and allow Hamilton to walk, which would leave Hamilton for the Mariners or Red Sox, presumably.

    One catch with that scenario is the idea that the Rangers would have to give up talent, not money, to get Upton, which means they'd either have to trade even more young talent to get the starting pitching they truly need, or hand Anibal Sanchez $75-100 million.

    Shields, who went to Kansas City in the Myers deal, was one of the Rangers' options until Sunday night. Now the trade options are down to R.A. Dickey and maybe Cliff Lee. I say maybe because there really isn't much talk of the Phillies shopping Lee, and if they did move him they likely would...

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    Roster issues, trades and Jason Bay

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-07
    Subscribers can check out the latest on the M's pursuit of bats by clicking here

    As tweeted by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, the Seattle Mariners have yet to make the Jason Bay deal official due to 40-man roster issues. They are stacked at 40 right now and to get Bay on it they have to make a move.

    They could simply remove a player by designating them for assignment -- such as D.J. Mitchell or Mauricio Robles -- but it's clear the club has other ideas, at least for now.

    Those other ideas involve trades, or at least one, that they may be able to complete within the next day or so. As far as I know, the club is not mandated by a specific time frame to make the Bay signing official and place him on the 40-man roster, so this could extend into the weekend and perhaps beyond.

    As far as the trades the club may be working on right now, they include the multi-team blockbuster that could involve the Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians, as well as other deals that include hitters -- Billy Butler, Michael Morse, Wil Myers, for example -- or even smaller moves that simply clear roster space.

    We can only wait and see and despite my lack of knowledge to the contrary on a time limit, this issue isn't likely to last beyond the next few days.

    Jaso and Montero
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    Winter Meetings Day 4 Live Blog

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-12-06
    It's the fourth day of the Winter Meetings down in Nashville. This isn't typically a big day for free-agent signings or big trades as many executives have already split town.

    The Mariners, however, are still in attendance and it doesn't appear to be to particiapte in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

    Feel free to discuss any rumors, deals or anything else flying around in Nashville.

    Subscribers can check out the latest on the M's pursuit of bats by clicking here


    1:45 PM | What the M's are offering Hamilton
    Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports is reporting that the Mariners have offered free-agent outfielder Josh Hamilton a deal for three-years at an annual price between $20-25 million.

    We've sort of assumed all along that the M's were hoping that patience would allow the market to help them acquire their needs without breaking the bank or giving up too many of their top prospects.

    Seeing as how the Rangers have discussed a four-year pact with Hamilton -- after most thought it would take at least five to sign him -- if he were to fall in Seattle's lap for three-years, it would be nothing short of a massive success.

    There's still time for Boston or Baltimore to jump into the fray if that sort of...

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    Winter Meetings Day 3 Live Blog

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-12-05
    We're in the third day of the MLB Winter Meetings from Nashville, Tennessee. The Seattle Mariners have been super active, checking in on just about every available hitter on the market as well as trade options.

    This could be the day that some moves start to happen for the club. Keep in mind, though, these meetings are often where the framework for deals are laid. We all remember the Cliff Lee winter and the story of how that deal developed.

    Feel free to discuss any rumors, deals or anything else flying around in Nashville today.

    9:12 PM | In or Out
    The M's have been linked to just about every bat on the market and the signing of Jason Bay to a one-year contract isn't going to eliminate any of them from that is on their radar. Here's a list of the free agent and trade-available hitters and whether or not the M's are still open to or trying to acquire them. After the yes or no is a number, on a scale of 1-10 (10 being of the highest of likelihood, 1 almost no chance or zero chance):

    Nick Swisher, OF/1B -- Yes | 2
    Swisher still prefers a winner, first and foremost, plus is very much preferring California. The Dodgers, Angels and Giants do not appear to have room, either on the roster or in terms of payroll (Giants), and there are no indications Padres are in the market for a spendy veteran.

    The chance Swisher "settles" for Seattle appear very slim, despite their being no obvious place for him to land, though Texas -- if...

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    Felix extension, Michael Bourn

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-04
    Several weeks ago I tweeted that the Seattle Mariners and right-hander Felix Hernandez were having serious talks about a contract extension and that something could get done relatively soon. The "relatively soon" part didn't come to fruition exactly when it seemed it might at the time, but Tuesday multiple reports -- a tweet by CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman and a report by USA Today -- surfaced saying the two sides are closing in a long-term extension, and have been working on it for weeks.

    There doesn't appear to be a lot of doubt at this stage that Hernandez will receive a huge deal from the Mariners to stay beyond 2014. The timing could be linked to Zack Greinke's free agency. Whatever Greinke gets, which could end up in the $150-160 million range, Hernandez will get more per year and more years.

    Using these kinds of deals as a barometer, Hernandez could be in line for a deal worth $200 million over eight seasons. That's a metric F-ton of dough and it's always a risk to hand pitchers enormous money, but if there's one ace in baseball worth it, it's King Felix.

    Hernandez also could sign a shorter extension, perhaps four or five years in length, that...

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    Winter Meeting 2012: Day 2

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-04
    While the meetings in Nashville have been fairly uneventful for most clubs, there have been numerous reports on numerous free agents and trade scenarios. This is the part that drives some fans crazy -- get something done already! -- but as I noted Monday, the meetings serve more as a place to create a foundation for deals that happen later this month or even in January, as the Seattle Mariners did a year ago when they acquired Jesus Montero from the New York Yankees.

    Let's chat about today's rumors.

    Pitching
    Late in the day, Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com tweeted that the Los Angeles Dodgers are shopping right-hander Aaron Harang and southpaw Chris Capuano, potentially to clear a little payroll space and a rotation spot for Zack Greinke. Capuano is exactly the kind of starter in which the M's should have strong interest.

    Adding Capuano could allow the M's to trade Jason Vargas and come out about $2 million ahead in payroll balances --Capuano is due $6 million in 2013, Vargas could get more than $8 million via arbitration. Adding such a pitcher doesn't mean Vargas is a goner for sure, however. That's a pretty solid rotation, despite the lack of a true No. 2 starter behind Felix Hernandez.

    In such a scenario where Capuano, or another similar arm, is acquired by Seattle, The odd-man out becomes Blake Beavan, and/or Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez may actually have some int...

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    Mariners looking at Bay

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-12-04
    Twitter is abuzz this morning with word that the Mariners are looking at -- and may be close to signing -- free-agent outfielder Jason Bay.

    Brock and Salk of 710 ESPN Seattle have stated there's "a good chance" of a deal happening.

    You'll remember that Bay, 34, is a hometown product, having been born in British Columbia before going to high school in Spokane. You’ll also remember that Bay was recently cut loose by the New York Mets after two unproductive and injury plagued seasons.

    Bay was once a solid player who was stashed away in small market Pittsburgh before making a splash in Boston. After a year and change in Beantown, Bay moved on to New York. So he still has big name appeal amongst fans who remember his prime.

    The cost to the M's would be cheap. The Mets were so desperate to get rid of him that they restructured his contract before tossing him overboard. Bay will have checks rolling in from the east coast while he's paid only the league minimum by his new employer.

    At this stage in his career, though, Bay is nothing more than a non-roster invitee who could show he has enough left in the tank to break camp if the Mariners are unsuccessful in landing the outfield help they are seeking.

    If the M's just want to heap another piece on the pile for spring training, I'd be fine with such a deal. However, they absolutely still need to make at least one –- and preferably two -- improvements to their outfield. Bay should't be brought i...

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    Winter Meetings 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-12-03
    The annual winter meetings in Major League Baseball has come to be known as a time span in which many free agents sign contracts and blockbuster trades are made. Certainly this year will not reflect anything different.

    When it comes to the Seattle Mariners, however, don't fret if they leave Nashville without making a single significant move. The trade that sent right-handers Michael Pineda and Jorge Campos to the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi did not occur until five full weeks after the winter meetings concluded. Many big deals -- signings and trades -- happen after teams leave the gathering.

    More than being the time and place when deals are struck, the winter meetings are known for being the place when the most significant progress is made on numerous impact transactions.

    Most likely Mariners to be traded
    The M's tendered each of their arbitration eligibles but one or two of them could be traded this week, or sometime this offseason. Also, it's difficult to imagine the club adding an impact bat via trade without parting with one of the better starting pitchers in the farm system.

    1. Shawn Kelley, RHP
    2. James Paxton, LHP
    3. Brendan Ryan, SS
    4. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
    5. Lucas Luetge, LHP
    6. Jason Vargas, LHP
    7. Taijuan Walker, RHP
    8. John Jaso, C/DH
    9. Hector Noesi, RHP
    10. Justin Smoak, 1B

    Kelley and Jos...

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    The Mariners Middle Infield

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-11-27
    Something we haven't got into much was the Seattle Mariners recent trade for infielder Robert Andino. While the cost to acquire Andino was low, the cost to retain him is not.

    Arbitration eligible for the second time, Andino is due for a raise that could see his salary reach around $2.5 million. It's no unrealistic to see it go all the way to $3 million. Couple that with Brendan Ryan's pending pay raise and the M's are looking at a commitment of $5-6 million between the two.

    That's not really the cost I was alluding to, however.

    Certainly, Andino is an improvement over Munenori Kawasaki as a backup infielder who can play shortstop. While Andino isn't a star with the glove or the bat, depth need was present for the club.

    So, you might ask, what's the big deal? Andino simply replaced Chone Figgins on the roster, right?

    Not quite.

    With the salaries of Ryan and Andino you've got a couple players who wouldn't simply be tossed overboard -- the way Kawasaki could have been -- should Nick Franklin earn a promotion early in the season.


    While there are plenty of folks who aren't high on Franklin's chances of sticking at short, the club isn't going to move him off the position to be Dustin Ackley's backup. And, no, Ackley isn't moving to the outfield.

    Blocking one of your top prospects that costs you nearly nothing to play with a mediocre player making a few million bucks just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. Andino, with Rya...

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    Ackley vs. Seager

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-27
    The Seattle Mariners' two North Carolina products know each other well, having played together in college and come up through the minors one right after the other, and even playing together for a short period of time in Triple-A Tacoma.

    The two are similar in a lot of ways; they both bat left-handed, throw right-handed and play the infield. Each are right around 6 feet tall, give or take an inch, and both were 2009 draftees.

    Both also are good defensive players at their respective positions and were born about three months apart. They do have differences, however, starting with the results put forth in 2012.

    So, which is more valuable to the Mariners if they were to trade one of them? Good question.

    I've been holding this piece for a month because of other hot-button issues and I am glad I did so because the buzz this winter has changed the dynamic.

    Dustin Ackley
    Ackley struggled in 2012, and to a point that has scouts doubting whether or not he may not be the hitter everyone expected him to be. The strikeouts were high -- 124 -- and he batted just .226 for the year.

    He did show the pop the M's believed was there, hitting 12 home runs, but he managed just two triples and 22 doubles, a very mild total for a player t...

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    Time for Zduriencik to earn stripes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-24
    It's been four years since Jack Zduriencik took over the reins as general manager of the Seattle Mariners. When he arrived, the club was coming off a 61-101 season in a year when they spent nearly $120 million.

    Since then, the team has won 85, 61, 67 and 75 games -- not exactly a sign of an organization turning around. This offseason and into 2013, that has to change, or Zduriencik could find himself on the hot seat.

    The team took on a philosophy, likely strongly supported by Zduriencik and his staff, to pair down payroll organically and build from within so the success at the end is sustainable. To do that, they'd need to draft well, avoid pricey free agents make a few key trades to get the club through the lean years and remain patient. The latter perhaps the most difficult with restless fans frustrated and tired of the same old result.

    Things have moved a little slower than many expected, including myself. In February 2009, I believed 2012 was the target year; a reasonable expectation to get the club back to respectability and the .500 mark. They fell six games short this past season.

    The time for Zduriencik to shine is now. This offseason and into next year, significant acquisitions must be made. I 'm not going to pretend to know what the suits think...

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    Sizing up the M's targets

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-23
    The Seattle Mariners have been linked to a handful of hitters this month, including Josh Hamilton, Cody Ross and Mike Napoli. Friday, another handful were linked to the M's from various sources. A few just as a suggestion, another by way of yours truly, right here, right now, with the assistance of Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports and Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com.

    Catch up on the latest in the M's rumor mill by clicking here.

    Shoenfield, of the SweetSpot Blog, suggested an interesting three-way trade Friday morning that involved the Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners.

    The Indians are believed to be shopping outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. The Diamondbacks have reportedly fielded calls on right fielder Justin Upton. The Mariners need offense, specifically in the outfield. The Tribe need young arms, Arizona wants a shortstop or young third baseman. The Mariners have all of the above.

    Schoenfield proposes the following:

    "Arizona Diamondbacks trade RF Justin Upton and RHP Trevor Bauer and receive SS Asdrubal Cabrera, RHP Vinnie Pestano and OF Michael Saunders

    Cleveland Indians trade SS Asdrubal Cabrera, OF Shin-Soo Choo and RHP Vinnie Pestano and receive RHP Trevor Bauer, LHP Danny Hultzen and RHP Hector Noesi...

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    Morban the surprise

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-21
    The M's, in case you have been hiding under a rock without your smartphone, have designated Chone Figgins for assignment and added five players to the 40-man roster.

    The club also DFA'd Scott Cousins, whom they just picked up earlier this month, clearing the extra two spots for right-hander Brandon Maurer, southpaws Anthony Fernandez and Bobby Lafromboise, infielder Vinnie Catricala and outfielder Julio Morban.

    Morban is the only surprise, as the left-handed hitter is at least two years from being big-league ready, but he might be a player a rebuilding club, such as the Astros, could stash away for a year.

    Morban was instantly one of my favorite young M's prospects after his performance in short-season ball and seeing him in spring training. He then, however, would miss significant time with injury, losing developmental time and it was impossible to get too excited about him again until this season.

    Morban, 21 in February, remained healthy in 2012 and took advantage of the hitter-friendly surroundings in High Desert. He'll start 2013 in Double-A Jackson as their left fielder. He can play a little center, but profiles in left due to average range and arm strength.

    Morban is a solid prospect, and the Mariners obviously though he was too good to leave exposed to e Rule 5 Draft. Can't blame them....

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    M's to set 40-man

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-20
    With the buzz and rumor mill a bit quiet early this week some of you may be wondering what GMs and their staffs are doing around baseball. One of those tasks is setting the reserve list of their respective clubs.

    This means clubs have to make personnel decisions which may include removing players already on the 40-man roster to make room for others. This is about protecting young players from the utterly useless Rule 5 Draft. We'll get to that a little later (scroll down).

    The eligibility is determined as follows:

    -- Players who signed a pro contract at age 18 or younger that have five or more years of service and are not on the 40-man roster

    -- Player who signed a pro contract at age 19 or older that have four years or more years of service and are not on the 40-man roster

    A year of service for the purposes of the Rule 5 Draft is any year in which the player competed in the minor league baseball schedule. However, a player can be drafted in June, sign a deal in July and play zero games, but his draft year still counts as his first year of service.

    There are times when a draftee signs late -- July 15 now, mid-August in past years -- but inks a contract that begins the next season. In these rarer cases, the player's draft year is not a year of service.

    International signings often fall under this category.

    The M's, who have 37 spots on the 40-man occupied heading into the deadline day to set the reserve lis...

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    The Plan 2013

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-15
    The Seattle Mariners have a tall task ahead of them. They're the fourth best team in what will become a five-team division with the addition of the Houston Astros in 2013, with several holes to fill before contention can be expected.

    The club has money to spend, as we covered earlier this week, and they have numerous pieces of value other clubs covet.

    Here, we'll cover the possibilities, the legitimate best-case scenarios and the most likely outcomes, rather than creating a wish list, spending someone else's money, and making trade proposals that we simply have no way of knowing is something the Mariners would do, let alone the other club in the equation.

    The Plan consists of a presentation of all the legitimate options and scenarios, plus three projected lineups and rotations -- worst-case, best-case and most likely, based on potential moves. We've also ranked the M's Top 25 in terms of trade value.

    Subscribers can view these options and scenarios by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and become one. The subscription not only includes access too all premium content -- which right now includes the winter rumor mill, located here -- as well as the 2013 Prospect Insider Handbook, which will now serve as both a prospec...

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    Figgins

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-13
    In reviewing the Seattle Mariners current 40-man roster, there's no squeeze, there's no shortage of spots -- three available as of Tuesday -- and there's no lack of opportunity to create more space with unproven talent, such as Mauricio Robles or D.J. Mitchell.

    It's well beyond time, however, to cut ties with veteran Chone Figgins.

    The M's need 25 productive players on their roster and the chances Figgins can do that probably is closer to zero than any other number above that. He's lost two steps, doesn't square up pitches with consistency anymore and isn't good enough anywhere on the field to warrant playing time.

    He's owed $8 million guaranteed for 2013, but he's also not eligible to be optioned to Triple-A and therefore takes up a 25-man roster spot, too. There does not appear to be a chance to save money in trade -- nobody wants Figgins for anything but FREE -- so cutting the cord with a clean break is necessary.

    If the New York Mets can eat more than $21 million to cut loose Jason Bay, the Mariners can eat the $8 million it would take to rid themselves of Figgins. The team junked more than that when they released Milton Bradley a few years back.

    Figgins stated earlier this offseason that he wants out of Seattle -- OK, Chone -- so perhaps the two sides can create a deal like the one Bay and the Mets did -- a buyout agreement.

    The advantage of the agreement for Bay is that he got his release and the chance to bounce back with a ch...

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    M's Payroll, Free Agent Predictions

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-12
    The Seattle Mariners have already spent a little money this offseason, re-signing left-handed reliever Oliver Perez and right-handed starter Hisashi Iwakuma. The club also bought out catcher Miguel Olivo. With the GM meetings now in the rear view mirror and the winter meetings closing in, we thought it was a good time to talk payroll and lay out the commitments in one place.

    Also, Chris Crawford and I took a shot at predicting the Free Agent signings. Click here for that.

    Guaranteed contracts
    Felix Hernandez, RHP -- $20.7m
    Chone Figgins, UT -- $8.5m
    Franklin Gutierrez, CF -- $7.313m
    Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP -- $6.5m
    Danny Hultzen, LHP -- $1.7m
    Dustin Ackley, 2B -- $1.5m
    Oliver Perez, LHP -- $1.5m
    Olivo's buyout -- $750,000
    Total: $48.463m

    Arbitration Eligible -- projected 2013 salary, via arbitration
    Brendan Ryan, SS -- $3m
    Jason Vargas, LHP -- $8.2m
    John Jaso, C -- $1.7m
    Shawn Kelley, RHP -- $1.5m
    Josh Kinney, RHP -- $900,000
    Total: $15.3 million
    Grand Total: $63.763m

    Club Control -- projected 2013 salary
    Projected slightly high | guarantee or near-guaranteed roster spots only
    Justin Smoak, 1B -- $600,000
    Michael Saunders, OF -- $600,000
    Casper Wells, OF -- $500,000
    Charlie Furbush, LHP -- $500,000
    Tom Wilhelmsen,...

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    Offseason Target: Asdrubal Cabrera

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-11-11
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities. But the club cannot ignore the starting rotation if they wish to compete in the American League West.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

    Next up, the second former Mariner on the list, Asdrubal Cabrera.

    What Asdrubal Cabrera brings
    Well, he's no Eduardo Perez. Sorry, I know it's still too fresh for these type of jokes.

    In the years since that disastrous move that saw Cabrera head to Cleveland, the switch-hitting shortstop has quietly become one of the league's best offensive shortstops. The power has developed to a point that even his largest supporters couldn't have imagined. Add a not abhorrent plate approach and above average spee...

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    Offseason Target: Anibal Sanchez

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-11
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities. But the club cannot ignore the starting rotation if they wish to compete in the American League West.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

    One last pitcher -- right-hander Anibal Sanchez.

    What Anibal Sanchez brings
    Sanchez uses a four-pitch mix led by a fastball that sits 91-94 with arm side run and some sink that he commands well on both sides of the plate. The right-handers used to sit in the mid-90s but ha labrum surgery in 2007 and is three years off Tommy John surgery.

    As he's developed, Sanchez has learned to throw more sliders and changeups and fewer curveballs, cutting down the chance that he hangs one and it gets deposited into...

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    Offseason Target: Jay Bruce

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-11
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

    Time to consider Jay Bruce.

    What Jay Bruce brings
    Jay Bruce is an athletic right fielder with plus power, average speed and a solid approach at the plate that should allow him to threaten appearances in the next several all-star games. He's durable, too, and is just good enough versus southpaws that he's not a liability as an everyday player.


    Despite setting career highs in home runs for five st...

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    Offseason Target: Jacoby Ellsbury

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-11-10
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

    Let's talk trade target Jacoby Ellsbury.

    What Jacoby Ellsbury brings
    Jacoby Ellsbury had a career year in 2011 where he led the league in fWAR over the likes of Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista. If it weren't for Justin Verlander's dominant campaign, Ellsbury would have won the MVP.

    He makes good contact and has some pop -- how much depends on which season you believe is the outlier -- but when he's healthy is an above-average offensive force, perhaps more. The leadoff hitter and centerfielder is a plus runner with plus range, but does not throw well, making him a solid defensive outfielder but with o...

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    Offseason Target: Adam LaRoche

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-11-10
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

    The top free agent first baseman on the market is up next.

    What the Adam LaRoche brings
    After a less than inspiring 2011 campaign that caused some pundits to believe the Washington Nationals would be in the Prince Fielder chase, LaRoche responded with one career season. The left-handed hitting first baseman posted a triple slash of .271/.343/.510, good enough to give him his second best OPS of his nine-year career to go with 33 home runs, a career best mark.

    LaRoche's power is mostly to his pull side, with the occasional bomb out to left field, but that would have played well even in the old Safeco....

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    Offseason Target: Giancarlo Stanton

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-09
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

    Let's get bold and discuss Giancarlo Stanton.

    What Giancarlo Stanton brings
    Stanton is a 23-year-old budding superstar that led the National League in slugging percentage in 2012 (.608) and blasted 37 home runs in just 501 plate appearances. He possesses the best raw power in the game and it's quickly developed into game power surpassed by no other hitter in the sport.

    He also batted .290 this past season, despite a slight dip in walk rate and an increase in strikeout rate. Some luck is surely involved there, but Stanton is equipped with the plate skills to hit for some average -- at least to league...

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    Offseason Target: Josh Hamilton

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-07
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Previously published reports:

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Full Story - Comments (15)
    Offseason Target: Alex Gordon

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-07
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Previously published reports:
    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Full Story - Comments (6)
    Offseason Target: Chase Headley

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-07
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Previously published reports:
    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Full Story - Comments (6)
    Offseason Target: Allen Craig

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-11-07
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here's who we covered thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Full Story - Comments (4)
    Offseason Target: Zack Greinke

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-11-06
    Although the Seattle Mariners have a ton of pitching depth, considering how volatile pitchers can be, particularly prospects, it wouldn't hurt to keep their options open. The overall free agent market is thin this year, but there are rotation options.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here's who we covered thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson |
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    Offseason Target: Todd Frazier

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-11-05
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here's who we covered thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Full Story - Comments (11)
    Offseason Target: Carlos Gonzalez

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-11-05
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here's who we covered thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler
    Full Story - Comments (5)
    Offseason Target: Kyle Lohse

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-11-03
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler

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    Impact of Iwakuma signing

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-03
    As announced by the Seattle Mariners Friday evening, Hisashi Iwakuma has re-upped with the club for two years and a club option for a third. This could keep the right-hander in Seattle through the 2015 season when he will be 34 years of age.

    Reports, via Twitter, from Jon Heyman at CBSSports.com are that the deal is worth $14 million guaranteed -- $6.5 million in '13 and '14 with a $1 million buyout of the $7 million option for '15. This is a very solid deal for a could-have-been free agent that projected out as a nearly 2-WAR starting pitcher over the course of a full season starting.

    Sure, there are questions, still, about Iwakuma's durability over the long haul of a major-league season -- he has a history of shoulder problems. But he has worked hard with the M's staff, who deserve mucho credit for their program, to strengthen the joint. And while there is some risk here as with all pitchers, if the worst-case scenario hits --Iwakuma gets hurt or ends up a long reliever -- the lost investment is far from crippling, even to a club that does not figure to top the $100 million mark for payroll in the next two years.

    The impact of Iwakuma's return, however, is far more intriguing. With two starting pitcher's under contract in Felix Hernandez and Iwakuma, Jason Vargas' days in Seattle may be numbered.

    The southpaw is arbitration eligible for the third time this winter and after earning just under $5 million in 2012, could be in line for $8 million or...

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    Offseason Target: Stephen Drew

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-11-02
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the off-season with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents as well as the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau | Billy Butler
    Full Story - Comments (9)
    Offseason Target: Josh Willingham

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-11-01
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the off-season with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents as well as the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo
    Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher
    Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau
    Billy Butler
    Full Story - Comments (12)
    Offseason Target: Logan Morrison

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-11-01
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo
    Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher
    Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau
    Billy Butler
    Full Story - Comments (7)
    Offseason Target: Edwin Jackson

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-10-31
    Although the Seattle Mariners have a ton of starting pitching depth, and with how volatile pitchers can be, it wouldn't hurt to keep their options open. The free agent market is thin this year, so the M's will have to do some bargaining if they want to add veteran talent to their roster.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

    Shin-Soo Choo
    Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher
    Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau
    Full Story - Comments (5)
    Roster Review 2012: Position players

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-30
    The Seattle Mariners finished the 2012 season with 75 victories, an improvement over 2011 of eight wins and 14 better than 2010 when the club hit rock bottom at 61-101 for the season.

    The season was spent giving young players consistent time to help the organization decide which ones can serve as regulars on a championship caliber team, or at least on a roster that can contend in the American League west. The results of those season turned up a mixed bag. Some showed promise, some struggled -- a few of those on both sides did so unexpectedly.

    Let's talk about each core roster member, their 2012 season and how their future looks moving forward.

    Last week, I took a look at the pitchers. This week, the bats.

    Michael Saunders, OF
    Saunders took significant steps forward in 2012, both in terms of his production at the plate and when it comes to taking on an everyday workload and staying in the lineup regularly. He batted just .247 with a .306 on-base percentage, but cut his strikeout rate significantly -- down under 24 percent from 31 percent in 2011 -- and maintained a decent walk rate while compiling 53 extra-base hits and a .432 slugging.

    The soon-to-...

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    Offseason Target: Billy Butler

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-10-30
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

    Shin-Soo Choo
    Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher
    Grady Sizemore
    Justin Morneau

    Now, Billy Butler.

    What Billy Butler brings
    Butler can hit. The right-handed hitting Butler has posted a career line of .300...

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    Offseason Target: Justin Morneau

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-10-30
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

    Shin-Soo Choo
    Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher
    Grady Sizemore

    Now, Justin Morneau.

    What Justin Morneau brings
    As Justin Morneau was entering his prime he was one of the better hitters on the planet. Add in being a solid fielding first basemen, and the Minnesota Twins had a superstar and franchise c...

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    Offseason Target: Grady Sizemore

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-10-29
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

    Shin-Soo Choo
    Brett Lawrie
    Nick Swisher

    Now, Grady Sizemore.

    What Grady Sizemore brings
    Grady Sizemore is a local product from Cascade High School in Everett, who has long been on wish lists of fans when discussing potential upgrades for the Seattle Mariners. Sizemore, 30, reportedly met with the club last winter before settling on a one-year pact to give it another go with the Cleveland...

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    Offseason Target: Nick Swisher

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-10-29
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

    Offseason Target: Shin-Soo Choo
    Offseason Target: Brett Lawrie

    Now, Nick Swisher.

    What Nick Swisher brings
    Swisher has been among the more consistent offensive players over the past eight seasons, outside of one less than successful campaign with the White Sox. Few players have a better eye than the switch-hitter, with above-average power to all fields and non-extreme splits from both sides of the field. While not a superb outfielder, Swisher does hold his own, and does have the ability...

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    Offseason Target: Brett Lawrie

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-10-27
    Offseason Target: Shin-Soo Choo

    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the off-season with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reason why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    What the player brings
    Brett Lawrie is exactly the type of player that scouts think will profile well at third base. He projects to hit for power and he has the arm for the hot corner, and it's hard to imagine that Toronto isn't happy with his progress. He may have taken a small step back since 2011, but there haven't been any red flags yet. The 22-year-old was banged up quite a bit during his first full season in 2012, but he still managed to play 125 games.


    The third baseman put up a healthy ratio of strikeouts-to-walks. The league average in 2012 was 2.4 strikeouts-per-walk, and Law...

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    M's replace Engle with Kissner

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-27
    The Seattle Mariners have replaced departed international scouting director Bob Engle with Tim Kissner, reports Ben Badler Saturday.

    Kissner, 41, has experience scouting the Pacific Rim as well as serving as a scouting supervisor in the states. He's scouted for the Indians, Cubs and Phillies.

    He's from Juneau, Alaska, has scouted the northwest among other areas, and spent time living in the Seattle area until he took a supervisor's position with the Cubs two years ago....

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    Offseason Target: Shin-Soo Choo

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-26
    The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

    There are always reason why deal are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

    What the player brings
    Shin-soo Choo is a fringe five-tool talent with above-average speed, a plus arm, good plate skills that allow him to hit for some average, and above-average power. He's a solid defender in right field and has produced in the leadoff spot as well as in the middle of the batting order.

    He's among the more skilled hitters in baseball and possesses an even mix of on-base skills and pop, making him a versatile bat that fits in any lineup in baseball.

    Choo, who turned 30 in July, has been a tad injury prone, playing in just 94 games in 2008 and missing significant time due to injury in 2011, too. He's a former Tommy John surgery recipient and appears to have recovered fully.

    The six-year big leaguer amassed career highs...

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    Another head scratcher

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-25
    The Seattle Mariners have not made the playoffs since 2001 -- 11 seasons ago -- and have had just two winning seasons since 2003. They have lost 100 games twice, finished in last place in the American League West three straight years and seven of the last nine seasons.

    Fans notice.

    They chose not to spend money on payroll for the 2012 season. Fans notice this, too.

    The Mariners, as an organization, fought the idea of a new NBA and NHL arena just south of Safeco Field. While I feel they are correct in their great concerns over this, they handled it poorly and were not clear about their concerns to the public, with the possible exception of Art Thiel's Q & A with CEO Howard Lincoln and the team's legal counsel Bart Waldman. Some still didn't like the tone in that piece, but I came out of it on the M's side. In the end, however, their stance and the way it was presented simply made them look bad.

    Fans noticed that, too. So much that I know of a handful of season ticket holders that either chose not to renew for 2013 as a result of it, or that promised to give up their Mariners tickets when the NBA returns down the road.

    Then, as if all of the above wasn't enough, the club decided to increase the price of season tickets and failed to inform...

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    Roster Review 2012: Pitchers

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-23
    The Seattle Mariners finished the 2012 season with 75 victories, an improvement over 2011 of eight wins and 14 better than 2010 when the club hit rock bottom at 61-101 for the season.

    The season was spent giving young players consistent time to help the organization decide which ones can serve as regulars on a championship caliber team, or at least on a roster that can contend in the American League west. The results of those season turned up a mixed bag. Some showed promise, some struggled -- a few of those on both sides did so unexpectedly.

    Let's talk about each core roster member, their 2012 season and how their future looks moving forward.

    Felix Hernandez, RHP
    Hernandez, once again, was a true ace for the Mariners in 2012 and at times was unhittable. Not only did he toss the first perfect game in the franchise's history, but he again logged more than 200 innings and 200 strikeouts for the fourth straight season.

    Since the start of the 2009 season, Hernandez has been among the very best starting pitchers in all of baseball, and at 26 years of age is truly showing no signs of slowing down.

    There was some concern early in the year about The King's velocity, but there appears to be no sign of excessive wear or injury and there's no re...

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    Young trade affects M's

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-10-20
    According to numerous sources, the Oakland Athletics have acquired Chris Young from the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three team deal that will see the A’s ship Yordy Cabrera to Miami and Heath Bell, Cliff Pennington and cash to the Diamondbacks.

    My first thought on the deal was whether or not Cabrera had to change Arizona Fall League teams, because that would be hilarious. Unfortunately, the Marlins and Oakland are both associated with the Phoenix club, so there will be no tender goodbyes. It’s just how my mind works, I can’t help it.

    The next thing that popped in my head is just how bad of a deal this is for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks gave up one of the best defensive centerfielder's in baseball with good pop for a mediocre closer, and they’re going to pay him $13 million over the next two years. This just doesn't make much sense to me. Pennington is probably an upgrade over McDonald, but, that’s not saying a whole heck of a lot. In a perfect world, Pennington is a utility infielder, and Arizona already has Willie Bloomquist, who is the deity of 25th men on the roster. I couldn't help myself.

    Cabrera is a decent get for Miami, though some of the shine has worn off since he was a highly regarded infield prospect in the 2010 draft. There’s some raw power in the bat, but he’s a considerable ways away from contributing with the stick anytime soon. Defensively, he’s made 61 errors over the last two seasons, but it’s the size and range that make him a fut...

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    Revisiting the Doug Fister trade

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-17
    It's been about a season and a third since the Seattle Mariners traded right-handers Doug Fister and David Pauley to the Detroit for three young, unproven players. At the time, it appeared the M's were taking a risk that they had enough starting pitching depth that they could afford to give up such a starting pitcher for the chance to gain value in other areas.

    The keys to the trade were third baseman Francisco Martinez and outfielder Casper Wells. Wells was big-league ready, Martinez more of a project. Reliever Chance Ruffin was the player to be named later. The M's also received southpaw Charlie Furbush.

    That was July 31, 2011. Since then, Fister has continued to develop into a strong No. 3 starter -- a defacto No. 2 for the Tigers at times -- and the Mariners have received little in return from the two offensive players, which was the main objective of the deal. While it's too early to give up on Martinez and Ruffin, Wells appears to be a platoon option at best -- though he could end up a value in such a role.

    Ruffin had what appears to be a lost 2012 when he looked a year ago like he was ready to contribute in the seventh or eighth inning going forward. His stuff was down a bit, but his control and command were both down a full grade. In five games I was in attendance, Ruffin threw just 54 percent strikes and his fastball sat 90-93 mph. Prior to the trade last season, Ruffin was sitting 91-94, touching 96, and showing a plus slider and the occasional...

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    Arizona Fall League update

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-10-15
    The Seattle Mariners chipped in eight players to play -- four position players and four pitchers -- with the 2012 Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League. While the two most interesting names are surely catcher Mike Zunino and lefty hurler James Paxton, there are still reasons to watch the other names as well: third baseman Vinnie Catricala, shortstop Nick Franklin, infielder Stefen Romero, right-handers Logan Bawcom and Carson Smith, and lefty Bobby LaFromboise.

    Now that the kids have had a week to get into a couple games each, let's take a look at what the organization is hoping to see and what they've done thus far.

    Mike Zunino, C
    At this point, people are expecting Mike Zunino to hit. After solid showings in both Short-season Everett and Double-A Jackson, there's little reason to expect a step forward or backward at the plate during his time in the cactus state. Rather, Zunino has a chance to log a few more innings behind the dish and continue his development as backstop. Splitting time with Chris Herrmann (MIN) and Tommy Joseph (PHI) behind the plate, Zunino will spend some time at DH as he bats in the middle of the Javelinas' lineup this fall.

    As Prospect Insider's Jason A. Churchill noted at the time of Zunino getting drafted, the one area of potential weakness to watch is his catch-and-release pop times. No one should expect any skill -- especially those of a catcher, the longest to develop -- to be polished during a short AFL campa...

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    Ownership change may be closer

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-08
    If you have followed Prospect Insider for the past few years you have read pieces here at the site as well as a number of tweets -- not to mention segments on local radio -- where I discuss the potential change of ownership for the Seattle Mariners. It's been apparent for at least three-plus years that the current group is not long for the task, at least not as presently constructed.

    A lot has been written over the past year or so, on many pages in many publications, about the timing of such changes potentially coinciding with the club's opt-out clause with their TV contract. The new pact could net the club more than $1 billion in guaranteed revenues, making the franchise likely worth more than the $800 million for which the San Diego Padres were recently sold.

    Despite the losses on the field piling up -- 283 in the last three seasons -- and the attendance dropping for the fifth straight year, the M's are a great investment. So great that the club may be sold sooner rather than later, probably before the TV deal can take effect -- prior to the 2015 season. The contract can be reworked before it's expired, and there's a chance talks are already under way.

    While Chris Larson, to my understanding, still holds the right of first refusal to buy the majori...

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    Fixing the flawed infield fly rule

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-10-07
    When you make a judgement call, it usually has to do with something that has no firm rules or principles. If you are a salesman and you are pursuing a lead that might produce a high profit, but you risk losing the account entirely--to pursue the lead is a judgement call. There's a risk-reward decision to make, but in the end, you have to make a call based on your best judgement. Keep the account so it yields a low, consistent profit, or take a risk and increase profits. A judgement call.

    A judgement call has no place in professional sports. The Infield Fly that was called against the Atlanta Braves during the NL Wild Card game was a bad, unjustifiably wrong call. It's bad enough that an umpire could call a pitch a ball in the middle of the strike zone, but when there has to be an interpretation of a rule, it causes all sorts of trouble. A team's future shouldn't hang in the balance of an opinion. There should be a hard and fast rule that officials can call upon, where there is no gray area. I appreciate the human element. It's part of the charm of baseball. But when the human element gets in the way of making the right call, it's unfair to both competitors to let that happen.

    On Friday night, it seems that a line was drawn in the proverbial Twitter sand. Dan Szymborski had a problem with
    Full Story - Comments (7)
    Fences In: Perception vs. Reality

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-10-06
    There's perception, and then there's reality.

    As you all know by now, the Seattle Mariners have decided that they will move in the fences at Safeco Field for the 2013 season. This has caused quite the stir in the blogosphere and Twitter-verse, with several writers that I very much respect and admire stating their various beliefs on what exactly it will mean for 2013.

    I'm not here to talk about that, however, because I think it's fairly obvious that this will improve the offensive numbers, though exactly how much is up for debate. We've all seen how many balls that seemingly jump off the bat that end up dying an easy death at the warning track, particularly in the power alleys, and particularly during the colder months at the start of the season. Many of those balls will now become home runs or doubles, and that equals more runs. And my mom said I wasn't good at math. I sure showed her.

    There's another side to the new dimension, though. While there is no debating that the new measurements will improve the offensive output, there's also no question it makes things more difficult for the pitching staff -- particularly Jason Vargas -- but just how much is disputable, as well. This doesn't turn Safeco Field into Great American Ball Park or pre-humidor Coors Field, or anything close to a bandbox park. Will you have to get every inch of the baseball to get the ball out to left-centerfield now? No, but there's not going to be any cheap shots, either.

    What...

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    M's make scouting changes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-05
    Felix Hernandez has won a Cy Young Award, tossed a perfect game and is established as one of the very best few pitchers in the game. His competitive nature is contagious, he's just 26 years old and he does all of this for the Seattle Mariners. For that fans have Bob Engle to thank.

    Engle, the Mariners announced Friday, will not return to the club in 2013 as he's contemplating his future in the game of baseball versus retirement.

    Engle also has overseen the signings of Michael Pineda, Jose Lopez, Victor Sanchez and Gabriel Guerrero, among many others. He came to Seattle by way of former GM Pat Gillick after serving as the Toronto Blue Jays' scouting director. Engle scouted and signed Pat Hentgen, Cy Young winner, Chris Carpenter, Cy Young winner and Roy Halladay ... Cy Young winner. Clearly, Engle knows pitching.

    The M's will miss Engle's talents and it's not a good thing that he will not be back with the team. For me, this is probably a little less of a hit than to others, since I don't believe in spending big dollars in Latin America the way most clubs have over the past 20 years. The success rate is so low and even with the new spending limits, my stance remains the same: The better bet is to invest most of that money on domestic or proven talent.

    While Engle is out, the Mariners did hire a pro scouting director in former Diamondbacks director of amateur scouting Tom Allison, whom GM Jack Zduriencik knows from their days in Milwaukee.

    Al...

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    The POY Case for Maurer, Miller

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-10-04
    Wednesday, Jason A. Churchill named Stefen Romero and the combination of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton as the prospects of the year in the Seattle Mariners organization. There were several worthy candidates, however.

    Here are my picks.

    Brandon Maurer
    For me, one of the things that makes Maurer the pitching Prospect of the Year over the likes of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton or Danny Hultzen is the sheer quality of progression he's made in the past year or so. Maurer was a high-school draft like Walker, and although Walker has the higher ceiling, Maurer has made considerable strides towards becoming a major leaguer. The fact that he was a 23rd-round draft pick helps increase his stock, too.

    The numbers don't completely bare the entire picture, either. Although his WHIP increased from 2011 to 2012, he had a stretch of time where he seemed absolutely dominant in the Southern League. Going into the All-Star break he held batters to a .298 batting average--coming out of the break, that plummeted to a meager .207. However, that drop might be explained by a high BABIP in the first half. Here are some of Maurer's first/second half splits:

    <...

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    M's Prospects of the Year

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-04
    The Seattle Mariners announced their organizational choices for minor league players of the year, naming infielder Stefen Romero and right-hander Carter Capps the recipients this season. The club also named shortstop Brad Miller the Heart and Soul Award winner and right-hander Brandon Maurer the Most Improved.

    These are performance-based honors that do not necessarily reflect the players' prospect status. In these cases, however, they fit.

    Prospect Insider has always named its own choices for similar awards, but instead we have always based it on development as much as production.

    Here are this season's winners:

    Position Prospect of the Year | Stefen Romero, 2B | Scouting Report
    Romero uses a short, quick swing and advanced approach to the game to stave off long slumps and produce big offense. He's listed as a second baseman but will likely play third base or left field as a big leaguer.

    Romero's season began in the California League and after 60 games he was batting .357/.391/.581 with 33 extra-base hits. He followed that up with a 56-game stretch in Double-A Jackson that resulted in a .347/.392/.620 triple-slash of nearly identical performance, proving his Cal League numbers were far from a fluke.

    We saw the same exact thing occur a year ago with Vincent Catricala and he suffered a wretched season in Triple-A this season. The difference betwee...

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    Churchill's MLB Awards

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-03
    Not that they truly mean anything at all, but the baseball awards do tend to lead to lots of sports betting action. With the regular season coming to an end Wednesday, the awards are a hot topic of conversation around baseball -- especially the American League Most Valuable Player. With that in mind, I thought it might be fun to strike up the discussion to include all of the league's awards.

    The league leaves the awards up for interpretation, which I don't like. They also have several voters, if not dozens and dozens, that simply don't understand the game and shouldn't have a vote with which to begin, but that is another story for another day.

    I interpret the awards with value, production and I consider anything and everything available to us all to evaluate the candidates.

    If I had a vote, here's what my ballot would look like.

    American League MVP | Mike Trout, CF -- Los Angeles Angels
    This is a no-brainer. He's literally the most valuable player in the entire game of baseball for the 2012 season any and every which way it's sliced and diced. He hit for average -- second in the circuit entering the final game of the year -- and power -- 30 homers and 64 total extra-base hits in 138 games -- and is the most valuable defensive player in the game as well it's most valuable base runner.

    He put up those numbers in a pitcher's park -- tougher than Miguel Cabrera's home park --...

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    The dimensions at Safeco

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-02
    The Seattle Mariners announced Tuesday that they will be altering the dimensions of the outfield fences over the offseason, a move many believe should have occurred five years ago. Kudos to the Mariners for getting it done, however, as it's not as simple a process as fans may assume.

    With the ballpark favoring pitchers so severely since its inception, the new dimensions will create a more fair atmosphere for hitters, particularly those of the right-handed variety. The ball doesn't travel well at Safeco, due to the air and moisture, which impacts offense to the ridiculous levels the first two-plus months of the schedule.

    The exact dimensions, starting in 2013, are as follows:

    Left field, right field
    Down the lines will remain the same, 331 feet, but rather than reaching to 341 feet the wall gets to 337 and levels out. The hand-operated scoreboard will now be behind the outfield wall rather than part of it, which means the outfield fences will stand eight feet tall from foul pole to foule pole.

    Batters will no longer have to clear that scoreboard to hit a home run to left field, so not only is the distance shorter, but the height of the wall is shorter, too.

    Power Alley to center
    This is the most significant difference; rather than sit at 390 feet, the left-center field alley will move in 12 feet to 378. The average distance in major league parks is 376.5.

    The area between the alley ways and dead center will move in...

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    PI Chat Night

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-10-01
    I'll be chatting at 7p PT tonight, so come on in and fire away.

    If you can't make the chat, head to the chat room now and leave a question for later.

    Monday Night Chat

    - Discuss (8)
    The M's at catcher '13

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-09-30
    There seems to be a lot of opinions out there in regards to what the Seattle Mariners should do at catcher next season. Most of them -- almost every last one that I have heard or read -- seem to be assuming that Mike Zunino will be big-league ready by mid-season, or even sooner. While that may be true, the M's cannot bank on that and must be prepared to play the entire season without Zunino.

    It was clear to me, based on what several scouts told me prior to this season, that Jesus Montero was never going to be a regular option behind the dish. It seems the Mariners know this, too, and maybe they did all along. Montero can, however, help out at the position here and there.

    John Jaso can hit, but he's below average defensively. His arm strength is fringy at best, but he is fairly accurate and clearly works well with the pitching staff, perhaps most of all with King Felix. He's adequate at blocking balls and moving laterally to keep balls in front of him, and is adept at captaining an infield. There's no question Jaso, who has started only 37 games at catcher this season, should catch more next season. But not regularly.

    There are reasons, however, that the duo of Jaso and Montero has started merely 90 games combined. First, neither controls the running game very well. Second, catching wears down a player and they represent two of the top few hitters on the roster. It made more sense, to an extent, to keep them fresh, use them at DH and catch them sparingly.<...

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    Smoak

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-09-27
    Wong's take on Smoak's swing selection


    The hot question right now in Mariners Land is "is Justin Smoak's recent hot streak for real?" While it's a loaded question, I have a loaded answer.

    Smoak is hitting with consistency since late August and hit his fifth home run in September Wednesday night off C.J. Wilson. He's hitting for average and power from both sides of the plate during that stretch and has some of the fan base wondering if, finally, this is the real Smoak.

    The problem here isn't just the idea that Smoak's hot streak is a small sample size, it's that he's had good Septembers (plus Octobers) three seasons in a row.

    2010: .340/.422/.581, 3HR, 3-2B, 7BB, 11K
    2011: .301/.354/.438, 3HR, 1-2B, 5BB, 20K

    There are some statistical differences, however, that suggest this means more than the past two Septembers. First, he's fanned just nine times and drawn eight walks, so his contact rates are similar as 2010. But he's done so without giving up power, as he enters the ninth innings Wednesday night with five homers and four doubles this month. Smoak entered September with eight doubles for the season.

    Generally, when a player with power hits some home runs, but not as many as expected, and he's gathering even fewer doubles, it suggests he's a mistake hitter with a lot of holes. It suggests he's cheating on fastball...

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    Announcement time

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-09-21
    In case you haven't heard ... I have agreed to join the Baseball Prospectus staff and will begin my work there sometime next week or the following week. This means I'll be doing more work on prospects from organizations not located in Seattle.

    What this does not mean is that things will change here at Prospect Insider.

    My role at ESPN also remains unchanged.

    A few related notes of change that were not impacted by my new role at Baseball Prospectus include the timing of some regular features here at PI.

  • The handbook will be released at the end of February, as is the usual target date, but the book will be a bit more involved than in years past. It will not only serve as a guide for the club's top prospects and young players, but as a preview and yearbook of sorts.


  • There will no longer be a mid-season prospect report in the same form. Instead, we'll release another digital book that tackles more than just the M's top prospects.


  • Starting next spring, rather than random scouting reports and features, Prospect Insider will update the scouting reports on the top prospects, including a stock up, stock down element, monthly.


  • The above monthly reports will available to subscribers only. All of the draft coverage, including scouting reports and video, will be available to all readers.


  • PI will expand its coverage of the American League West's top prospects and the conditions of the other four...

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    September, POY candidates

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-09-17
    Much is made about splits and recent trends. This slugger has cut down on the strikeouts the past 25 games, this pitcher has dominated left-handed hitters over his past six starts, and so on. Sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the context and certainly the details.

    One of those splits that gets attention is performances in September. For the contenders it's the clutch performance. All hits are big and meaningful and those late n close games are even more crucial and clutch. So be it. For non-contender and more specifically, the young, developing players that have yet to prove themselves at the big league level, there is a lot said about the numbers being meaningless. I disagree.

    It should all be taken with a grain of salt, since, after all, it is just one month, but it's not any more meaningless than the others monthly splits of the season.

    The argument against that is that a hitter is facing a lot of September call-ups that aren't necessarily legitimate major leaguers yet, and that pitchers are facing a lot of inexperience hitters of the same ilk.

    That, however, is generally not true. Even if it were -- and there is some of that, but not enough to dismiss the month as if it's lesser than others during the six-month season -- one still should look a little deeper before sending September numbers down the river.

    For example, Jesus Montero, statistically, is having a great month. A deeper look shows, though, that he's...

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    Prospect Notebook: Bats shine

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-09-08
    The Seattle Mariners have starting pitching depth and relief pitching to spare. But they're building some solid depth up the middle, and have a crop of hitters that project as big league regulars.

    Stefen Romero -- scouting report here -- and shortstop Brad Miller have been performing at a high level all season. They each started the year in Advanced-A High Desert where the numbers reached absurd levels for both players.

    The hitting hasn't stopped.

    [Check the stats for yourself -- Miller | Romero]

    First-round pick Mike Zunino has lit up the boxscores since signing in July, including three hits and two home runs in Friday night's Southern League playoffs matchup versus Dodgers' right-hander Zach Lee.

    Statistics, however, never tell the entire story, and in the minors they rarely tell enough of the story.

    "No, the numbers are right," said one scout. "These guys are hitting the ball hard, on a line and having consistent at-bats. All three of them. Zunino is already the leader...

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    Free agency and arbitration

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-09-07
    There's still a good chunk of baseball left to play, but I think it's time to start thinking about what Seattle should do in the off-season with the players they have on their roster. There are a few obvious choices of who the Mariners should not bring back for the 2013 season, but we can start to look at the contract situations and the possibilities. The payroll can make or break a team, and the Mariners will be doing everything they can to cut spending until there is something worth spending it on.

    Free Agency

    Hisashi Iwakuma - $1.5MM through 2012
    Iwakuma's been a pleasant surprise since he's hit his stride in the rotation. At the start of the year he was the 2011 Jeff Gray--never to be seen. Even the broadcasters had mostly forgotten about him, as you could hear their papers shuffle madly whenever he would warm up in the early months of the season. But now we're near the season's close, and Iwakuma has established himself as a reliable cornerstone in Seattle's starting pitching rotation.

    Because of the role he played early in the season it's hard to compare him to other pitchers around the league. But let's take his fWAR of 0.5 and see if he's a bargain. As of Thursday, he's pitched 97.1 innings. Freddy Garcia has pitched a similar workload, but the Yankees paid $3 million more to attain his services. Randy Wolf is worth the same amount of wins-above-replacement, and he's owed $9.5 million this season. As far as I'm concern...

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    The M's young core

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-09-03
    We're well past the quarter pole of the baseball season, and it's time to start thinking about seriously evaluating the young talent that the Mariners have constructed their team around. The lack of consistent offensive production has been a dark cloud that hovers over Safeco for the past few years, and Seattle won't find itself contending for the pennant anytime soon if it isn't addressed. It's a been a tale of two seasons for the Mariners: before the All-Star break, the team put up a .230/.291/.358 triple slash line while they slugged 73 dingers in 87 games. Since the All-Star break, the team's slash line has been .235/.296/369 while they put up 43 home runs in 46 games. The improvement is minimal if we were just looking at a single player, but since we're looking at the collective batting line of the team, we have to take into account thousands of plate appearances rather than hundreds, in which case it's a positive, and significant change.

    At this point, the Mariners are playing to get to five-hundred. Their second half .609 winning percentage won't hold up, but it's encouraging to see some production coming from all spots in the lineup. It's definitely an improvement, but I wonder how the development of the young core compares to similar players on other teams. The Mariners will soon have to think about who they want to be the core of their future, while juggling the possibility of moving on from players.

    Dustin Ackley
    The now-second-bas...

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    Hisashi Iwakuma

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-09-02
    The Seattle Mariners are a young, developing team which undoubtedly needs to add significant offense to its roster to compete with the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics. But despite the organizational strength being starting pitching, GM Jack Zduriencik cannot ignore the starting rotation over the offseason. Hisashi Iwakuma should be the first pitcher the club has conversations with in terms of a new contract.

    The club will have some money to spend -- we'll get into specifics once the season is complete in about four weeks -- and could create more by executing a smart plan for the pitching staff. By creating a very inexpensive bullpen in the form of Tom Wilhelmsen, Stephen Pryor, Charlie Furbush, Lucas Luetge and Carter Capps, avoiding the veteran free agent signing and developing their own young players over the past two years, the M's have payroll flexibility.

    Jason Vargas has earned a multi-year extension, but if the Mariners want even more money to pour into the offense, Vargas can be traded. My argument against that a few months back -- I opined that a 2-3 year extension was in order -- is based on the club's need to employ reliable starting pitchers behind Felix Hernandez. While that still rings true, Iwakuma's emergence suggests he could take Vargas' place going forward.

    Perhaps it's even more ideal to keep both pitchers for 2013 and maybe beyond, but Iwakuma isn't going to come as cheap as he did in 2012 -- $1.5 million guara...

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    September call-ups 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-08-31
    With a young, developing team that is among the youngest in baseball -- with probably the youngest core by a landslide -- September call-ups aren't as exciting because those players have already been added to the 25-man roster. That doesn't mean the expanded rosters is meaningless, however.

    The Seattle Mariners will call up a handful of players in September, though most, if not all, will arrive after the minor league season is over, not on September 1.

    Casper Wells could be one exception and the rehabbing Mike Carp could be another, though he's technically already on the 25-man and will simply be activated.

    The M's are sending a couple of call-up candidates to the Arizona Fall League, which may be a sign they won't see the majors next month. Infielder Nick Franklin and left-handed reliever Bobby LaFromboise are at least in the discussion for time in the bigs, though I do not believe Franklin is ready to face big league pitching and shouldn't be called up unless it's to simply join the major leaguers and gain that experience. LaFromboise can pitch, and wouldn't embarrass himself by any means, but the club may prefer he gets a little time off before starting up again in the AFL.

    Carlos Triunfel, SS
    Triunfel, despite 29 errors, can play shortstop but has not improved at the plate and it's difficult to imagine he'd survive even a few weeks of major league arms painting corners and pounding him with a steady diet of breaking balls out of the z...

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    Seattle still loves the Mariners

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-08-22
    On a mild Tuesday night in the waning weeks of summer in Seattle, 39,204 people jam-packed a baseball cathedral that has mostly been a sea of empty green seats over the past several years. On this night, however, you were immersed in yellow and heard roars of delight from every direction.

    This wasn’t a feeling we’re completely unfamiliar with, of course. There was 1995, 1997 and 2001. By the end of the 93-win 2003 season, a burgeoning ball yard and raucous crowd had become commonplace.

    Then 2004 through 2006 happened. Sprinkled in amongst other disastrous seasons were 2007 and 2009, but the fan base hadn’t bought in yet and wanted to see some consistency in the improvements. Each time, the product regressed. The ballpark got emptier.

    A franchise that, just a decade ago, spun their turnstiles even more than the New York Yankees, now rests in the bottom-five in attendance. The figures have halved, plummeting from a three year stretch that saw the Mariners draw an average of 42,454 fans per-game all the way down to the 22,609 of this season that barely tops that of the horrid Houston Astros.

    The fan base had abandoned the team. They threw their hands in the air collectively and told ownership that enough was enough. Sure, the crowds show up for opening day and promotion nights. The park fills up when the Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays roll into the Emerald City.

    Those are exceptions, though. Far too often we’ve seen the guy who...

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    King Felix building a legend

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-08-17
    It has been two-plus days since King Felix Hernandez became pitcher No. 23 to spin a perfect game -- 27 up, 27 down. I haven't commented much on what it means, what I think of the feat and how I experienced it personally, because I wanted to let it sink in some. I didn't want to react with too much emotion.

    So, here I am. The Seattle Mariners are back at work after a day off, lending us all time to reflect on what has transpired. I have to be honest, though, there is still some emotion attached to my thoughts. Not in the form of homerism, favoritism or anything of the like, but to the feat, and the player's greatness, both prior to and after history was made Wednesday.

    What the perfect game means
    It doesn't mean anything we didn't already know. We know perfect games are special, and we know they are rare. We also know that it was a matter of time before Hernandez at least threatened a no-hitter or perfecto into the late innings.

    With such an accomplishment under his belt, Hernandez isn’t any more or less valuable to the Seattle Mariners on the field, nor is he more likely to be traded, re-signed to another long-term contract or anything else. He will, however, get more endorsement offers, and could join the perfecto club in teasing Justin Verlander that...

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    Felix Hernandez is perfect

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-08-15
    Sandy Koufax. Roy Halladay. David Cone.

    Felix Hernandez.

    It finally happened. Felix threw the perfect game we all knew he would. It feels like something that Mariners fans have been waiting for since he made his major league debut on August 4, 2005. There's no doubt that Felix is the face of the franchise, and props have to be given to Bob Engle, Pedro Avila and Emilio Carrasquel for finding and signing him.

    Even though this is the third perfect game this year, perfection is still a rarity. With the 23rd perfect game in baseball history, Felix has etched his name into the history books. Felix etched his name into Seattle's history books, too, with the Mariners first perfect game. Randy Johnson, Chris Bosio, Millwood/Furbush/Pryor/Luetge/League/Wilhelmsen, and now sitting at the top of that list: Felix Hernandez. At the end of his post-game interview, Felix looked towards the crowd and said, "This is all for you." I'm not sure there's a pitcher out there that deserved this more than Felix Hernandez.

    But what I wonder how his game compares to past perfection?

    It took David Cone over 10 years to throw a perfect game. It took Randy Johnson over 15 years. It took Felix Hernandez seven years into the majors to throw his perfect game. There's a lot that goes into pitching excellence. Skill, defense, luck--there are so many variables that go into the success of a baseball player's career, I thought it'd be fun to delve into some data to see...

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    A signing, promotion, other thoughts

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-08-14
    The Seattle Mariners have been fairly busy the past 24-48 hours, signing Brazilian left-hander Luiz Gohora, who just turned 16 on July 31, and promoting Justin Smoak to take the roster spot of the DL's Mike Carp. The long-expected signing of Gohora was first reported by Ben Badler.

    Gohora is a 6-foot-3, 215-pound southpaw whose fastball sits in the 89-91 mph range, with reports that clubs have clocked him as high as 94, a mighty impressive feat for a kid his age, especially a lefty.

    Tack on another high-upside pitching prospect for the Mariners.

    Justin Smoak
    Smoak's call-up was no surprise but it comes without a single sense of excitement considering how fiercely Smoak struggled before being sent down just three weeks ago.

    Is there any chance he's fixed things? For me, no. I don't think a swing can be fixed in three weeks.

    Is there a chance he's better? Absolutely. Smoak batted just .242 with little power in Tacoma, but did post a 16-16 BB/K ratio, suggesting Tacoma hitting coach Jeff Pentland has Smoak thinking contact, line drives and consistent swings form both sides of the plate.

    The problem is, Smoak did all that (as little as it really is) versus Triple-A pitching. For any of it to matter -- and make no mistake, there is still a lot of work to do and he'll continue to put in that work between games while in the majors ... which is what I would have done in the first place -- Smoak will have to prove it versus quality...

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    Zunino promoted

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-08-13
    The news broke late Sunday night -- including from the player himself via Twitter -- that Mike Zunino was headed to Double-A Jackson to join the Generals in their run through the playoffs.

    The M's first round pick was lighting up the Northwest League -- .373 average, 10 home runs in 29 games -- and it's time for a true challenge, which he will get in the Southern League.

    Any level of success is acceptable for Zunino over the final few weeks and into the postseason, and sets up the former Florida Gators star to start 2013 in Jackson with an outside chance to hit the big leagues by next September.

    Zunino, however, may not be alone when it comes to August promotions. Let's take a look at some other candidates.

    Jack Marder, 2B/LF -- High Desert Mavericks
    Marder is the top candidate from the HD club but may not be the most likely to be moved up since both teams are headed for the playoffs and Marder can benefit from sticking around in the Cal League.

    Carson Smith, RHP -- High Desert Mavericks
    Smith has been nails, lowering his ERA to 3.31 with just two earned runs allowed in his past 19 2/3 innings of work. There's setup stuff in the arm and his low arm slot creates major problems for right-handed batters. He could be a major asset to the Generals down the stretch, especially since they lost Carter Capps earlier this month, and Smith is certainly showing he's ready for the next step.

    Matt Anderson, RHP -- Peo...

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    Maurer makes four

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-08-10
    We've been talking about The Big Three for more than a year now -- since the Seattle Mariners tabbed left-hander Danny Hultzen in the 2011 Draft -- and despite some struggles by Hultzen, a minor injury to James Paxton and some inconsistencies to Taijuan Walker's season, the trio of future big league impact starters remains intact, with one possible exception.

    Their exclusive club may be expanding by one.

    Right-hander Brandon Maurer, pronounced just like (Joe) Mauer, first jumped onto Prospect Insider's radar in 2009 and showed more ability when he started off fast last season at Class-A Clinton. He appeared to let the California League eat him alive, suggesting perhaps he was destined for the back end of the rotation or even the bullpen. But the 22-year-old has rebounded well in 2012. Very well.

    Maurer, a 23rd round pick in 2008, entered his start Friday night at 8-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 128 innings of work. He's issued 42 walks and allowed just four long balls among the 127 hits.

    Those numbers, however, are a bit misleading because Maurer started off slow, posting mediocre numbers through May 26. Since then, Maurer has reeled off a 13-start run that has some scouts talking about a lot more than a No. 4 arm.

    Maurer is 6-1 in those...

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    M's sign right-hander

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-08-06
    The Seattle Mariners have signed Long Beach State right-hander Matt Anderson, Prospect Insider has learned.

    Anderson, 20, was not drafted in June after going 4-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 85 1/3 innings at Long Beach State. He walked 36 and allowed 72 hits, including 16 doubles and just one long ball.

    Anderson, signed by Mariners scout John Ramey, has been pitching in the Southern California Collegiate Baseball League this summer for the Palm Springs Power, showing a 92-94 mph fastball, touching 96, and flashing an above-average slider.

    One scout stated Anderson recently hit 95 on his gun in each of the first six innings of a start, which has been typical during the summer season after sitting 88-91 during the spring.

    Anderson's manager and pitching coach in Palm Springs, Harry Gurley, a long-time scout, coach and manager in college and professional baseball, offers a reason why his star pitcher's stuff has ticked up this much.

    "A lot of it is comfort zone," Gurley said. "He got off to a good start. We try to pound the zone a lot, challenge hitters, and all that put together has helped Matt. He's done that very well here. He's a good competitor."

    Anderson, who spun 39 consecutive scoreless innings for the Power, stands...

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    The Rainiers Report: August 1, 2012

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-08-04
    I made the trip down to Cheney Stadium this past Wednesday to check out some of the Tacoma Rainiers' position players. Jason already talked about the potential bats that Seattle could be looking at in the offseason, but I'm sure some of us are curious about how the bats in the farm are doing. The mix of talent in Tacoma is intriguing, and there are a couple of players who could be just a year away from the majors.

    Darren Ford
    As of right now, Ford is striking out a bit too much to be an ideal lead-off guy, but he's getting on base. On the season, Ford's .298/.379/.450 triple slash line is impressive, but he's only appeared in 43 games so far, so it's a bit of a small sample size. In his first at-bat, he laced a pitch down the left field line for a double with a solid swing.

    Ford has only played in center field during his tenure in Tacoma. The outfield is looking pretty solid in Seattle, with Eric Thames, Casper Wells and Michael Saunders performing decently. If he sticks with the franchise, he could be a solid top of the order bat if any of the outfielders at the big league level get traded or become injured.



    Nick Franklin
    They say that the l...

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    M's look to offseason for bats

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-31
    The July 31, non-waiver trade deadline has passed and the Seattle Mariners did not make any additional trades to the two made Monday night, and, of course, the shocker made last week.

    The tone of the responses from the fan base after learning the M's didn't deal left-hander Jason Vargas, right-hander Kevin Millwood and spare parts for high-quality hitters under club control beyond 2012 and even 2013, is that of major disappointment, frustration and anger.

    If you are one of those, do yourself a favor. Go to the MLB.com transactions page and find one team not contending that made such a trade. Heck, other than the San Francisco Giants, who picked up Hunter Pence from the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who added Hanley Ramirez, name one contender who added such a hitter.

    Texas, Detroit, Washington and Cincinnati were all looking for bats and didn't get one, and they are contending and trying to win and qualify for the postseason.

    Josh Willingham was not traded. Justin Upton was not traded. Denard Span is still in Minnesota. Allen Craig, Shin-Soo Choo and Billy Butler are all in the same place they were before the deadline.

    Fact is, teams that add those players tend to overpay to get them. The Giants not only served up catching prospect Tommy Joseph, outfielder Nate Schierholtz and right-hander Seth Rosin, but they took on about $3...

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    M's haul for League, Delabar

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-31
    Latest M's Trade Rumors


    The Seattle Mariners made two deals that were finalized just after Monday night's game, sending two relievers to two contenders in exchange for three players.

    In return for Brandon League, the M's receive prospects Logan Bawcom and Leon Landry. Bawcom is a 23-year-old right-handed reliever performing well in Double-A Chattanooga.

    His fastball sits in the 91-93 mph range but he's been up to 95 this season and also offers a slider and changeup. Bawcom projects as a 7th inning arm and could see the big leagues as early as September.

    Landry, a 2010 draftee out of LSU, is a 22-year-old left-handed hitter with above-average speed and more than gap power. He's a solid defender in center field, very strong despite being just 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds. He's a bit of a free-swinger, however, but makes decent contact, having whiffed just 52 times in just under 370 plate appearances.

    Landry is likely a fourth outfielder, but could force the issue on more regular play with progress with the approach at the plate. He;s very aggressive and isn't keen on drawing walks, but he has a history, all the way back to college, of being patient.

    The Toronto Blue Jays, who have acquired Steve Delabar, send outfielder Eric Thames to the Mariners. Thames started the season in the big leagues and might have been on his way back there with Travis Snider...

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    The Mariners and Justin Morneau

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-30
    There have been numerous reports this season about the availability of Minnesota Twins Justin Morneau. The Twins need pitching in he worst way, and Morneau appears to be the players they are most willing to trade to clear some payroll and potentially add an arm.

    The Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers have interested, according to multiple reports over the weekend and Monday, but should the Mariners be involved in those talks?

    It's a tough one.

    Morneau is 31, coming down from concussion symptoms that forced him to miss significant time over the past two-plus seasons, as well as a few other nagging little injuries. He's also hitting just .260/.322/.457 and is owed around $20 million between now and the end of next season when he'll hit free agency.

    The left-handed hitter, however, is mashing in July, which could be a sign of things to come.

    The M's need hitters -- preferably those under contract even beyond 2013 -- but they can't be that picky, in my opinion.

    They can't wait for Justin Smoak any longer and Mike Carp's ceiling is probably Morneau's floor. The club has payroll space -- unless they have decided to become the American League West's version of the Tampa Bay Rays because they don't want a high payroll or risk any bad contracts as they set themselves up to sell the club in the next few years -- and could easily take on Morneau's deal.

    Even if the sell-the-team scenarios are in place,...

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    M's rumor mill is hot

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-29
    It's been quiet on the trade front for the Seattle Mariners -- with the exception of the shocker that was the trade of Ichiro to the New York Yankees -- but it appears that will change in the next several hours.

    ESPN.coms Jerry Crasnick tweeted earl Sunday that right-hander Brandon League was close to being traded, though no team was mentioned.

    I have heard the Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals and Giants on League, but clubs such as Detroit, Tampa, Boston and even the Yankees could have interest.

    Jon Morosi tweeted that the M's and Giants have discussed a trade, but Brandon Belt's name appears unlikely to be the swap, unless there is more to the deal.

    He's not likely to fetch a whole lot -- he lost his closer's job to Tom Wilhelmsen because he struggled mightily in May -- but perhaps there s enough competition for him that the Mariners can get something useful.

    Another report by Morosi Sunday is that the Mariners have interest in Josh Willingham and Allen Craig, but so does darn near every other club in baseball.

    A few weeks back I was told the m's were "down the road" in talks with a club about a hitter, and I'm learning now that the hitter has not been traded yet and the hold-up on a deal is the interest being shown by other clubs.

    Teams holding bats right now have a t...

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    Smoak optioned, thoughts on Ackley

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-24
    Follow all the Mariners-related trade rumors!

    After Monday night's loss to the New York Yankees the Seattle Mariners optioned Justin Smoak to Triple-A Tacoma and plan to recall Mike Carp, who will presumably get the majority of the work at first base for the coming weeks.

    I already wrote about why I believe it's a mistake to recall Carp and why the fix for Smoak isn't Triple-A Tacoma, but I do agree running Smoak out there every game could not continue. for the record, I probably would have gone with a rotation of Smoak, John Jaso and Jesus Montero; the more Smoak hits, the more he plays. The more he struggles, the less he plays, all the way down to being a 2-day a week option.

    Smoak, however, is headed for Tacoma where whether he hits there or not is completely and utterly irrelevant.

    Future at first base
    Smoak isn't the answer -- the M's can't wait for him any longer, so they have to be out there looking for the long-term answer at first base, and even settling for a 1-2 year fix for 2013. They need a proven hitter who isn't a complete liability in the field.

    Maybe Jesus Montero can develop into an option at first base -- he's taken ground balls and done some work there on and off this season, but unlike the belief of what seems to be most fans and even some m...

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    Ichiro traded to New York

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-07-23
    Jack Curry of the YES Network is reporting that Ichiro Suzuki has been traded to the New York Yankees. Reports are that the M's will receive right handed pitcher Danny Farquhar and right handed pitcher D.J. Mitchell.

    We'll have more on this as it breaks, but wanted to get this up to get the discussion rolling.

    Update: The Mariners have confirmed the deal.

    I think everyone knew that Ichiro was far from my favorite player, but I certainly appreciated what he did. I can't even say it will be bittersweet seeing him in a different uniform, because I would have preferred he retired last year as a Mariner.

    With that being said, this is the right thing to do, both short and long term, and we'll get into the why and the return as soon as things settle down.

    UPDATE: 3:45 PM -- From Howard Lincoln: "Several weeks ago, Ichiro Suzuki, through his long time agent, Tony Attanasio, approached Chuck Armstrong and me to ask that the Mariners consider trading him. Ichiro knows that the club is building for the future, and he felt that what was best for the team was to be traded to another club and give our younger players an opportunity to develop."

    This shocks me. Not sure why, but it does.
    ...

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    Smoak, Carp and first baseman

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-23
    For weeks there has been discussions and Twitter talk about what the Seattle Mariners should do about first base and the struggling Justin Smoak. Skipper Eric Wedge hinted at possible demotions before the All-Star break, but not only has that not occurred, but it appears Smoak is as safe as ever, barring the club making a trade.

    Many simply want Smoak benched, sent down, traded or designated for assignment, despite the simple fact -- yes, FACT -- that the organization does not have anyone else that can handle first base on any sort of regular basis.

    The common response to my saying that has been "what about Mike Carp?"

    What about Mike Carp? Let's talk about Carp for a second.

    He's been hurt this year, came back to early, went back on the disabled list, appears to be 100 percent healthy yet isn't hitting in the least in Triple-A Tacoma. He has one day -- today -- left on his 20-day rehab assignment, suggesting at that point the Mariners could call up Carp and at least have him share time with Smoak at first base.

    For so many reasons that does not appear to be in the cards. Carp's struggles probably overshadow the fact that he's out of options and either has to be activated to the 25-man or designated for assignment, and Carp did not play in either end of a double-header Sunday in Colorado Springs.

    He's back in the lineup Monday, but think about that. A rehabbing player with just two days left on his rehab assignment didn't play in eit...

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    Danny Hultzen impressive in latest Tacoma outing

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-07-19
    In what became a marquee pitching matchup, thanks to an out-of-nowhere prospect hitting the scene, Danny Hultzen and the Tacoma Rainiers took on Daniel Straily and Oakland's Class AAA squad, the Sacramento River Cats.

    What the 3,624 fans that spun the turnstiles didn't realize, was that most of them would be sound asleep when the game concluded, the following day, after a pair of position players were needed to scale the mound for their respective clubs.

    Hultzen whizzed through the first five innings with relative ease, reaching a pitch count of 68 with 40 of those being strikes. His second inning was the only real laborious one of those first five, having tossed 20 pitches. He countered that, though, with an eight pitch third.

    Through those five innings, Hultzen struck out seven batters (four swinging) and walked none. He was efficient, painting the corners and working at a good clip. It looked as though he had a chance to make it deep into the game for the first time since joining Tacoma.

    After giving up a sixth inning leadoff homer to Sacramento's No. 9 hitter, Jermaine Mitchell, Hultzen came back get the next batter to fly out. The wheels started to fall off at that point, though. A throwing error by shortstop Nick Franklin preceded Hultzen walking the next two batters (the only two of the contest).

    With the sacks drunk, his next pitch sailed past catcher Brandon Bantz to the backstop. Luckily, it took a friendly bounce and Bantz was a...

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    Trade Rumors: Tom Wilhelmsen

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-15
    The Seattle Mariners' approach to this year's trade deadline is likely quite different than in year's past. We've discussed here the past few weeks about what the club is -- and isn't -- looking for in trades this month, as well as the idea of the M's making a play for Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton.

    The M's may very well move left-hander Jason Vargas at the deadline, and reliever Brandon League could be on a similar trek. The club's No. 1 trade piece, outside of Felix Hernandez, whom we discussed here and Mike Salk of 710 ESPN discussed in this video, is right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen.

    Clubs like The Bartender quite a bit, and for good reason. He's really the perfect relief pitcher and trade commodity. Here's why:

    Not only does he possess good stuff, including a fastball in the 93-97 mph range and one of the very best curveballs in the entire league, but Wilhelmsen is under club control for five more seasons after 2012 and isn't likely to become arbitration eligible until after the 2014 season.
    ...

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    Draft system still broken

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-13
    The most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement between the players union and the owners included quite a few changes. Some good, such as the free agent draft-pick compensation regulations, and for me the limits on international signing bonuses. It's a completely different topic, but I've long been skeptical of the kind of dollars being thrown to international free agents, who are inherently a bigger risk -- much bigger -- than the top players in the draft each year.

    The changes made to the draft for this year and beyond -- as I wrote over the winter when the CBA was announced -- are bad for Major League Baseball.

    Friday was the signing deadline, rather than mid-August as it was in the past, which is one of the few altered points of the draft that is a positive. Considering the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates, who reportedly offered their first-round pick $3.8 million -- far over slot for the pick -- lost out, is preposterous.

    Sure, they will receive a compensation pick at No. 9 in next year's draft, but that doesn't make up for the fact that Mark Appel will head back to Stanford rather than joining the Bucs' revitalized farm system and organization.

    The draft was designed to more evenly distribute talent through opportunity. It may not always work out, but if it doesn't it should be bad luck or the fact that other clubs did their jobs better. It should not be based on money or the choice of the player.

    Appel may have turned down the offer...

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    Trade Rumors: Jason Vargas

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-12
    We've talked all season about the possibility that left-hander Jason Vargas is traded before this month's trade deadline, and with three weeks left we finally can point to a club that has interest.

    ESPN.com's Jayson Stark tweeted Thursday that the Baltimore Orioles are "poking around" on Vargas -- likely because the asking price for Matt Garza and others is too rich for their blood at the moment.

    The fact that Vargas is being pushed back to the club's first road game after the break -- in Kansas City, rather than pitching at the safe haven that is Safeco Field -- could have something to do with the trade front.

    Perhaps the Orioles, and other clubs, want to get a fresh look at Vargas and how he handles a hitter's park. His numbers are far better at Safeco in 2012, but he has had long stretches of success away from Safeco. The 29-year-old was better on the road last year -- 3.79 ERA -- than he was at Safeco -- 4.56 ERA. The home run ball, however, has been a problem for Vargas away from Safeco during his entire tenure with the Mariners.

    Other clubs that could have some interest in Vargas include the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. The Tigers may find the asking price on Garza, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels too great, as might the Dodgers. The Giants could be forced to make a move with Tim Lincecum -- to the bullpen or disabled list -- and may...

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    Talking Justin Upton and other rumors

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-10
    Late Sunday I was told by a source with another club that the Seattle Mariners were having "more than preliminary talks" with more than one team about a player in which the source's club also has expressed interest.

    I shared that information on Twitter with anyone who follows, and elaborated by saying that because another team, at least, is interested in the same player it sounds like these discussions are not about shipping Brandon League to the New York Mets for a Double-A outfielder, and more of an "add" for the 25-man roster.

    I also stated, as best I could in 140 characters or less, that I do not necessarily believe the M's are close to any deal, or that they are nearing any trade to acquire a superstar. I also do not believe for one second that Felix Hernandez is being discussed.

    One name that has come up in reports the past 48 hours is Justin Upton. We've talked about the 24-year-old right fielder before -- first a few years back when right-hander Michael Pineda was the rumored bait -- and then again on a number occasions as trade ideas come and go.

    Upton is a good player, and he's had two really good seasons -- 2009 and 2011. He's had a few other solid years -- 2008 and 2010 -- and is under contract through 2015 at an affordable and more-than reasonable rate.

    Upton has been linked to the Pittsburgh Pirates in recent days, and the name Jameson Taillon has come up as being a po...

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    Nine moves the M's should make

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-07
    It's just beyond the halfway point of the 2012 season and the M's aren't any better in the win-loss column than they ended last season. The offense is still a problem, despite showing signs of significant progress away from Safeco Field. They rank among the league leaders in runs per game on the road.

    Heads are likely to roll fairly soon, and in such a temperature, here are 10 moves (the last one is a 2-in-1) I think the club should make over the all-star break and leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

    These are in no particular order of importance or urgency.


    Relegate Ichiro to part-time duty
    Ichiro has been eaten up by left-handed pitchers (.514 OPS) and is limited in what he's been able to do versus righties, as well. He's never walked much but he's on pace for a career low in that area this year, and is batting just .258 after Friday's game, creating a .290 on-base percentage and significant evidence that he's just not an everyday player any longer.

    Regardless of Ichiro's history in the game and with the Mariners organization, the right move is to use Ichiro versus most right-handed pitchers -- at most -- and as a defensive replacement, pinch runner and occasional pinch hitter. Using him regularly, and especially at the top of the lineup, is severely hindering the progress of a team that is struggling at so many other spots on the field.

    With Michael Saunders deserving at least near-regular time and Casper Wells showing...

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    M's not looking for prospects

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-05
    It's the time of year when the trade deadline becomes the topic of conversation in every big league city. Whether adding to the roster or selling of veteran pieces, each club is generally open to making moves to better their respective rosters, either for now, or the future.

    For the better part of the last nine years the Seattle Mariners have been sellers, attempting to better their future by trading older players or those hitting free agency at the end of the season.

    Whether that has worked to any degree or not is no matter. What is, however, is the club's goals at this year's deadline. Sure, they could trade off left-hander Jason Vargas, right-handers Kevin Millwood and Brandon League and perhaps shortstop Brendan Ryan and catcher Miguel Olivo, too. If any of the above are moved, prospects -- though not those of impact value -- are likely to be the return.

    The M's, no doubt, have other pieces to move, if they so choose. Pieces with real value. Parts that could potentially bring back the kind of impact the club sorely needs, both right now, and for 2013 and beyond.

    In short, the Mariners aren't looking to trade for prospects. You can bet that they are out scouring the baseball world for players that can make the 25-man roster better immediately; not next April, not next summer, right now.

    I tweeted earlier this week that the club was getting calls on closer Tom Wilhelmsen, and other young assets such as Kyle Seager, Casper Wells, Michael Sa...

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    Midseason Prospect Rankings

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-07-02
    Since the start of spring training a lot has changed in the Seattle Mariners' farm system. A number of prospects have graduated to the big leagues while others have had just enough big-league time to fail to qualify, despite being minor leaguers today.

    Other changes to the rankings, however, have come by way of development, or the lack thereof. Some prospect fell a spot or three, not because they didn't perform, but because others deserved to jump them.

    Subscribers can access the Midseason Top 50 by clicking here. If you are not yet a subscriber, click here....

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    What you're missing in Everett

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-06-30
    A good handful of the Seattle Mariners' 2012 Draftees were assigned to Everett and I thought it'd be a good time to check up on a few of them. For those who haven't been to Everett Memorial Stadium, I highly recommend you check it out. It's a quaint, intimate ballpark and it's worth the drive. There's a good batch of talent on the AquaSox roster, and there's a good chance a handful of them will see time in Clinton before the year is over.

    Marcus Littlewood | C
    The biggest question most people have about Littlewood is how he handles himself in his new role behind the plate. As far as receiving abilities, I was impressed. Out of six balls I saw that were thrown in the dirt, he was able to keep five of them in front of him. Said ball he wasn't able to block was credited as a wild pitch, and it was of little consequence anyways. It was the top of the second with two outs, and the runner on first advanced to second, but the battery of Steven Ewing and Littlewood got the next batter to groundout to end the inning.

    He has a quiet mitt and frames pitches well. His head doesn't move much while receiving pitches, and to me, he just oozes confidence as a backstop. Now, this could all change when he receives pitches that break more than Bryce Harper's bat, but for now, all signs...

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    Scouting Anthony Fernandez

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-30
    In case you haven't noticed, Jackson, Tennessee has been where it's at in terms of the top Mariners' prospects this season. While five have moved on -- Stephen Pryor, Danny Hultzen, Nick Franklin, Bobby LaFromboise, Brian Moran -- the prospect performances in the Southern League have not dipped much, thanks to the replacements that have come from Advanced-A High Desert.

    We discussed Stefen Romero earlier this week, but after two complete-game victories, it's time to talk about Anthony Fernandez.

    A quick check of the game log for the left-hander shows two nine-inning complete games in his first two starts for Jackson after being promoted. The most amazing statistic on that stats page is what the 22-year-old did in the California League: 14 GS, 88 IP, 3.68 ERA, 6 HR, 14 BB, 79 SO.

    He's been off my radar despite good numbers the past few years, but he's a different pitcher today than he was even a year ago, and especially entering the 2010 season.

    Repertoire
    Fernandez began his pro career with as a fastball-curveball-changeup left-hander with good control, but below-average velocity and below-average secondary stuff. The changeup improved enough to be a weapon in the lower m...

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    M's All-Star Candidates

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-06-29
    The Seattle Mariners, just like the other 29 teams in baseball, will have at least one representative at the midsummer classic. It's a rule many dislike. An argument can be made that we shouldn't sweat the selection process since the game is an exhibition, but things changed a few years ago when World Series implications were attached to the otherwise meaningless tilt.

    The primary way to get a roster spot in the game is from fan vote. However, even after a surge of votes for Ichiro from the Far East, no Mariner will sniff that method of entry. The next way in is via player and coaches voting. Felix Hernandez stands the best chance to make the squad that way, especially with his last three outings serving as damning evidence for the prosecution. If he doesn't, he's certainly an option for Ron Washington, the American League's manager, who will get to pencil in the final handful of players.

    The way the teams are chosen is bunk. I'm old school and would like to see a reprise of players playing the game like it matters. I want to see the best of the best on the field -- for the entire game. Forget about trying to squeeze everyone in. That's not how it works these days, though.

    So, if you're Washington and you're constructing a roster of the best players in the American Lea...

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    Ranking the M's trade bait

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-06-28
    I'm a big fan of Bill Simmons. I realize he's not everyone's cup of tea – and I certainly don't agree with everything he writes – but for the most part, I find him entertaining and often times he's as funny a sportswriter south of Chris Crawford (shut up).

    One of my favorite things Simmons does is his ranking of the top 100 NBA players in terms of trade value. Even though I've soured on the league, the general idea of ranking players in this manner intrigues me. At the very least, it is better than reading about why Cliff Lee can't get a win for the Phillies, though I suppose that's not saying a whole lot.

    I decided to borrow this concept and apply it to the 25-man roster -- as well as the two players currently on the disabled list -- of your Seattle Mariners, raking them in order of least to most trade value. Some of these rankings are superfluous, as there's very little difference in their value, but while the team is struggling mightily in the not-so-hot summer days, I thought this would at least be a nice conversation piece.

    27. Chone Figgins, UT
    Outside of giving up a prospect along with him or taking on an even worse contract, you pretty much deal Figgins for whatever is offered. Be it a fringe relief prospect, or a bucket with or without balls in it, there's no reason to say no to a Figgins trade at this point, in my estimation.

    26. Miguel Olivo, C
    See above, but add in the ability to play catcher. Yes, I'm well aware th...

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    The M's need to make a move

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-27
    The Seattle Mariners have scored 311 runs in 77 games this season, just shy of the pace of 650 runs for the year I goaled out in the Season Preview in late March. That, unfortunately, is the good news. The bad news is, only 100 of those runs, or less than three per game, have come at Safeco Field. That's a problem, to say the least.

    The issue, however, isn't the ballpark's dimensions, or even the heavier air and winds that prevent balls from travelling -- which is a bigger problem than the dimension, though, despite all the quack talk about how the fences have to be moved in if the team is ever going to score runs at home -- the issue is talent. The M's have some good young bats and some of them are developing, including Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Michael Saunders, and to a lesser extent, Dustin Ackley.

    Justin Smoak's hot streak between May 11 and June 7 is now three weeks gone and there's no question that the doubt on his future is growing immensely. For the record, it's still the right move to play him regularly, but the club can no longer sit idly by and hope the current group figures out how to produce with more consistency, particularly at Safeco.

    In other words, forget the trade deadline, which is more than a month away -- the Mariners need to make a deal now, and the sooner, the better. This group needs a proven bat -- or even two -- to stick in the middle of the order for the rest of this season and into 2013, and there is just no reason t...

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    Scouting Stefen Romero

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-26
    The Seattle Mariners seem to be making a habit of getting great value in later rounds of the draft. Kyle Seager, the club's starting third baseman and one of their best hitters this season, was a 3rd-round selection in 2009. Stephen Pryor, perhaps the club's next setup man or closer, was a 5th-round pick in 2010.

    In the 12th round of that same draft, scouting director Tom McNamara tabbed Oregon State third baseman Stefen Romero, and he may be the best draft pick the club has made under the new regime in the four years its been in town.

    Romero, 23, was recently promoted to Double-A Jackson and entering play Tuesday had collected nine hits in 20 at-bats, including two walks, three doubles, a triple and a long ball. He's yet to strike out and is quickly proving that his .357/.391/.581 line in High Desert may be inflated, but it's no fluke.

    Romero, explained Pedro Grifol, the skipper of the High Desert Mavericks and a former player, scout and player development director, "has extremely strong and quick hands, tremendous hand-eye, with torque, power and leverage. He has the knack of finding the leather ball with the fat part of the bat and hitting balls hard."

    The right-handed hitter isn't a spray hitter, he'll instead use the middle of the field...

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    BP Observations: Everett AquaSox

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-25
    I just sat and watched, at Everett Memorial Stadium, the Everett AquaSox take batting practice. I got a good look at the swings of several prospects.

    Here's what I jotted down in my legal pad:

    Marcus Littlewood, C
    LH: Consistent swing, goes the other way without concerted effort and with doubles power. Good pull power, timing is consistent.

    RH: More of a line drive swing. Seems to have timing issues with hands, doesn't get his front foot down early enough at times. Did same thing last year with the Sox in games.

    Taylor Ard, 1B
    Easy power from RCF to straight-away LF. Very stable in box, strong hands, wrists and forearms, plus bat speed. Creates good leverage.

    Alfredo Morales, RF
    Plus bat speed, good bat control, swing in zone throughout. Out front some, perhaps he doesn't trust his hands enough. Swing generates natural loft and backspin.

    Chris Taylor, SS
    Setup and load restricts bat speed and plate coverage; swing prevents leverage and loft and needs to be completely reworked in offseason. Average bat speed, quick wrists. Showed off ridiculous hands and actions on defense before his round of BP. Alex Liddi no longer has the best hands in the organization.

    Patrick Kivlehan, 3B
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    Trading King Felix

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-23
    It comes up every year. Not because it should happen, not because it makes sense, but because it may happen -- at some point -- and it could make sense.

    Felix Hernandez is a 26-year-old ace right-hander pitching for a team that will not contend until at least 2013. He's signed through the 2014 season at which time he would become the premier free agent pitcher of all time. It's then that Hernandez could cash in on a deal that approaches -- or potentially even exceeds -- $200 million. Clubs such as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies could all be set to bid.

    The result of that pending free agency -- even though it's 2 1/2 years away ... or maybe because it's 2 1/2 years down the road -- is the opinion of some that the Mariners have to aggressively shop their ace around the league.

    I take issue with that, and here is why:

    1. The Mariners cannot get equal value
    I have had numerous and lengthy discussions about this with colleagues, scouts, front office people, players in the league and two former general managers. We don't agree on much during these conversations, but we all agree that no team...

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    MiLB Roster Shuffle

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-21
    TACOMA -- It was made official Wednesday, but expected for weeks. Left-hander Danny Hultzen and shortstop Nick Franklin have been promoted to Triple-A Tacoma and are in uniform for Thursday night's game at Cheney Stadium. Franklin is starting at second base and batting second in the lineup, while Hultzen is slated to go Saturday at Colorado Springs.

    Stefen Romero was promoted to Double-A Jackson with lefty Anthony Fernandez and right-hander Jonathan Arias, to fill out the Generals roster. Andrew Kittredge, who was with Jackson as a fill-in, was sent to Class-A Clinton.

    Tyler Blandford was assigned to High Desert after working his way back from injury in extended spring training. The Mavericks also added infielder Patrick Brady and activated righty George Mieses from the DL, filling out the roster.

    And before I get the question 50 more times, the answer is no. The Mariners have not decided to move Dustin Ackley to left field so they can promote Franklin to play second.

    Franklin has work to do before he's ready for a call-up, and I don't anticipate him hitting Seattle before September. Also, he's still a shortstop.

    On top of that, there is no reason to move Ackley off second base, and if they did so now, they'd have to bench an outfielder. Can't bench Saunders, he's the best hitter on the team right now and might have a future with the club, possibly even as an everyday guy.

    They won't bench Ichiro, we all know that, and Gutierrez is ev...

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    Brendan Ryan's worth

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-06-20
    Nick Franklin is on his way to Seattle. He isn't on his way to Seattle right at this very moment, of course, but it's happening soon. Before he travels through the threshold of Safeco Field's gates as a member of the Mariners' 25-man roster, he has to pass through Tacoma. Seattle's second pick in the first round of the 2009 Amateur Draft is knocking on the door of the major leagues.

    That begs the question -- what happens to Brendan Ryan?

    2013 will be the last year that Ryan is eligible for salary arbitration. When he avoided arbitration with the Mariners in late 2010, he signed to the tune of $2.75 million over two years. Unless baseball front offices decide to value defensive metrics overnight, Ryan doesn't stand to make much more than that this off-season. That's quite a steal when you look at other shortstops in the league and what they're making. Jamey Carroll is making nearly double what Ryan is, and Clint Barmes is owed more than triple Ryan's salary this year, and neither of them contribute to the defense of their teams as much as Ryan does.

    The Mariners would be doing themselves a favor by signing Ryan to at least another two-year deal. Brendan Ryan is the best defensive shortstop in baseball and there is no question about it. One statistic Fangraphs uses to rate defense is Full Story - Comments (9)
    News and Notes: June 18, 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-18
    The Seattle Mariners are 10 games under the .500 mark (29-39) after a series win over the San Francisco Giants and are now on pace for about 70 wins. That isn't good enough.

    The offense has shown flashes of turning a corner and are averaging 4.03 runs per games this season. That isn't good enough, either.

    The M's have made significant progress in terms of scoring runs this season versus the last two years, and are on pace to surpass their total of 556 runs of 2011 in game 138. More importantly, the club has gained ground in terms of where they stand versus the rest of the league as the game continues to move toward pitching and defense.

    Furthermore, the Mariners are doing it with young, developing players.

    Still, none of the above is good enough.

    As much as the team has improved, they should be better than they are and that is disappointing. Dustin Ackley has not hit with any consistency, Justin Smoak, despite a nice stretch between May 11 and June 7, is in another mini-slump and the team's second-best hitter this season -- Kyle Seager -- has a .317 on-base percentage for the seasons and is 9-for-51 in June.

    The brightest spots at this stage are Michael Saunders and Jesus Montero, but the keys remain Smoak and Ackley.

    I talked last month about Ackley's front side leak and I still believe that is a large problem he needs to fix before he starts hitting with more consistency. Smoak, who singled home the winning run Sunday...

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    M's draft signings

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-14
    The Seattle Mariners announced Thursday via press release that they have officially signed LHP Tyler Pike and RHP Edwin Diaz. Pike, the club's supplemental third-round pick, is rumored to have inked for $850,000, which is more than twice the slot value for the No. 126 pick.

    The M's signed No. 64 pick Joe DeCarlo for $1.3 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and others, such as shortstops Chris Taylor and Timmy Lopes, signed for more than slot, too.

    This has put the Mariners in a tough spot. Or has it?

    The Mariners draft bonus pool is $8,223,400. So far, they have officially spent $3,820, 200, and that does not count Diaz, a bonus I have yet to confirm.

    That leaves the club $4,403,200 to sign No. 3 pick Mike Zunino, Diaz and 8th rounder Nick Halamandaris.

    Zunino will sign, and likely for around $4 million. Halamandaris is not likely to sign, and will instead head to California where he has a chance to develop into a top 100 talent for the 2015 draft.

    One thing to note here are the penalties for going over the pool limits. If you go up to 5 percent over the limit, you are taxed at a 75 percent rate of the overage amount. So the Mariners can conceivably spend a total of $8.6351 million and pay a tax of about $303,000.

    Any overages beyond 5 percent will cost a first round pick....

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    How I would fix the draft

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-06-14
    Well, the 2012 MLB Draft is complete. For me it was an exhausting -- but rewarding -- time, and I know that Jason and I appreciate everyone coming and checking the coverage, both at Prospect Insider and MLB Draft Insider. It was a lot of fun, and readers were outstanding.

    With that being said, not everything about the event is wonderful (it hurts my heart to type that). As much as I love it, it's not for everyone for lots of reasons, and none of it involves the phrase "crap shoot." I don't know what the ratings were, but I'm going to take a wild guess that it would struggle against reruns of Gray's Anatomy on Lifetime.

    There are several things that keep the draft from being a stalwart television event, and I think I know what needs to be done to get it in the right direction.

    Allow picks to be traded
    This should have been put into place decades ago, and I've never been given a concrete explanation as to why trading isn't allowed. Even just putting picks into play would increase the drama of the day, but if you could trade players for picks as well? You just turned an event where a man with zero charisma is announcing names you haven't heard into Downton Abbey.

    This is an accounting nightmare, and one that could allow clubs to be extremely cheap and passive on the draft, so there would have to be regulations that prevent such issues.

    And speaking of zero charisma …

    Kick Selig to the curb
    I am not a Eugene Selig ha...

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    Everett AquaSox 2012 Roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-13
    The Sox announced their roster today.

    Here it is.

    Pitchers
    Mark Bordonaro ('12) | R
    Mario De Jesus | R
    Scott DeCocco ('12) | L
    Oliver Garcia | R
    Mayekol Guape | R
    Seon Gi Kim | R
    Dominic Leone ('12) | R
    Brandon Plotz | R
    Marcos Reyna | R
    Victor Sanchez | R
    Robert Shore | R
    Dylan Unsworth | R
    Jose Valdivia | R

    Catchers
    Marcus Littlewood | S
    Carlton Tanabe | R
    David Villasusso | R

    Infielders
    Jean Acevedo | R
    Taylor Ard ('12) | R
    Patrick Kivlehan ('12) | R
    Ketel Marte | S
    Jamodrick McGruder ('12) | L
    Chris Taylor ('12) | R

    Outfielders
    Mike Faulkner ('12) | L
    Alfredo Morales | L
    Janelfrey Zorrila | R


    The standouts here are 2012 draftees Ard, Taylor, Faulkner, McGruder and Kivlehan, as well as Litlewood at catcher, outfielder Alfredo Morales and a pitching staff I am jacked about seeing.

    Valdivia and Sanchez, especially, but Garcia is projectable and loose-armed and Seon-Gi Kim, if he throws strikes, could dominate early and move up to Clinton....

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    The M's and the trade deadline

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-11
    Everyone loves the trade deadline. It's much like the draft, except that moves always impact the big league roster upon completion of each transaction. Sometimes it improves a team's chances to win that season, while sellers try and set themselves up for following seasons by literally making their 25-man roster worse in the moment.

    The Seattle Mariners and GM Jack Zduriencik are no stranger to July deals, and this summer may be no different. I guess.

    The first three deadlines under Zduriencik were different, however, at least in my opinion. There was dead weight to shed in 2009 and 2010 and last summer was a move made to take a shot at getting young talent into the organization.

    There isn't any dead weight that can be dealt away this summer -- unless some how, some way, Chone Figgins is traded rather than designated for assignment, or Ichiro becomes a commodity with which the franchise is willing to part.

    Their veteran assets, such as right-handed reliever Brandon League, catcher Miquel Olivo and left-hander Jason Vargas, may not warrant enough in return to be worth moving at all.

    That means the spotlight may be on moving team controlled players for talent. More of a Pineda-for-Montero scenario than the deals the club has consummated in July in prior years.

    Regardless of who the bit may be -- prospects, zero-to-threes or veterans -- let's take a look at some possibilities.

    Take note that this is not a suggestion that; 1) the Ma...

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    Promotion Candidates

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-09
    I wrote recently that I believe shortstop Nick Franklin and left-hander Danny Hultzen are ready for Triple-A Tacoma, and both are going to happen sooner or later. For Franklin, we may be talking sometime shortly after the Southern League All-star Game. For Hultzen, it could be any day now, though the club could send both to Tacoma once the Jackson Generals clinch the first half.

    There are others, however, that appear ready for the next level soon, so I went calling around to get some scouting opinions of the candidates. Here's what I came up with, but it's worth noting that the deserving players are not limited to this list by any means.

    Jamal Austin, CF | Clinton (A)
    Austin, who will turn 22 in August, will likely be challenged this summer with at least a move to High Desert. He's been solid in the Midwest League, batting in the .290 range most of the spring, and despite a lack of power is making contact and looks like an extra outfielder long term.
    He does run well, however, and plays a good center field, so there's some value there if he can develop the bat as he moves through the system.

    Jabari Blash, RF | Clinton (A)
    Blash is hitting j...

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    M's should extend Vargas

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-08
    Yes, I'm well aware of the fact that the Seattle Mariners have three pretty good pitching prospects within a year or so of the big leagues. I'm also aware that one of them is likely to debut in The Show in 2012 and that the club has other young arms that can handle the back end of the starting rotation while the top prospects settle into roles in the No. 2 and 3 spots behind Felix Hernandez.

    Jason Vargas, however, is still necessary, and I believe the club should, if they haven't already, seriously explore a multi-year extension for the southpaw. He's not due for free agency until after next season, but his arbitration salary is likely to hit the $7 million range this coming winter.

    I've talked quite a bit for quite a while about trading Vargas by this summer's July 31 deadline, but there are two reason why I believe it's in the best interest of the club to re-sign Vargas, rather than trading him.

    Let's talk about those reasons.

    The Market
    The trade market is likely to offer Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Wandy Rodriguez, Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders and perhaps even Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Brandon McCarthy and Erik Bedard. In other words, Vargas is not going to be among the top few arms available -- he wouldn't even be among the top few left-handers.

    The return for Vargas has little chance to make an impact and the Mariners have plenty of back-end starters, bench players and relief pitchers. They need players with upside, or p...

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    Wrapping Day 3

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-07
    The Seattle Mariners wrapped up the 2012 Draft Wednesday by selecting 25 more players, resulting in a 3-day tally as shown below:

    41 players

    20 pitchers
    -- 14 right-handers
    -- 6 left-handers

    21 position players
    -- 3 catchers
    -- 3 first basemen
    -- 3 second basemen
    -- 1 third baseman
    -- 6 shortstops
    -- 5 outfielders

    26 college players

    15 high school players

    The Mariners did not select a college pitcher in the draft until the 10th round.

    As for Day 3 ...
    The most intriguing selections came with the final two picks -- 40th rounder James Kaprielian, a right-handed pitcher out of Beckman High School (Calif.) and a round earlier it was right-hander Grayson Long, a Texas prep product.

    Long, a projectable 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, is up to 92 mph with his fastball with two breaking balls, including a slider in the 81-83 mph range and a curveball at 77-79 -- The two are too similar to keep both.

    His arm path is long and he doesn't repeat his delivery.

    Kaprielian, another projectable right-hander, sits 87-90 with his fastball but has been up to 92 with natural sink and average command. His curveball is of the 12-6 variety and he's displayed a pretty solid changeup at times, fading it away from left-handed batters.

    The delivery has some effort to it, but he is athletic.

    Kaprielian was a top 200 talent in this class and fell due to signability and there's virtual...

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    Scouting Day 2 of M's Draft

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-05
    The Seattle Mariners made 15 selections on Day 2 of the First-Year Players Draft, and loaded up on power bats.

    The best pick of their draft, however, may have taken place at No. 98, where a potential frontline arm was the selection.

    Subscribers can check out the scouting reports on those bats here.

    If you are not a subscriber, click here to become one.

    In case you missed it:

    Scouting No. 3 pick Mike Zunino

    Adam H. Wong on why RHP Lucas Giolito is worth the risk for the Washington Nationals.

    Alex Carson gets M's prospect Forest Snow to talk draft

    ...

    Full Story - Comments (28)
    Snow to 'Pen, talks draft

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-06-05
    I had an opportunity to sit down with Mariners' minor league pitcher Forrest Snow on Monday before he and the Tacoma Rainiers took on Manny Ramirez and the Sacramento River Cats.

    Being draft day and all, the intent was to learn about Forrest's two draft-day experiences. During the conversation, Snow revealed that he's being moved to the bullpen. We'll touch on that in a bit.

    Growing up, Forrest Snow was raised to be a well-rounded individual. Aside from baseball, he played basketball and soccer through high school. He even tickled the ivories as a young pianist.

    So in 2007, when his hometown Mariners tabbed him in the 44th round, there were plenty of options on the table. There really wasn't that much thought put into signing by the Snow camp, however, as Forrest and his family put a heavy emphasis on education.

    He knew he wanted to play baseball professionally. Just not yet.

    "At that point, I kind of knew I wasn't ready," Snow said. "I hadn't matured enough in terms of my baseball IQ. So I decided getting better in college and learning what it took to be a good college pitcher would only hellp me the next time around."

    In 2010, Forrest knew he'd be selected again. With coaching changes at the University of Washington and his skills improved, he was ready to begin his journey into pro ball. So how did he spend draft week?

    Studying for his biology final, which was interrupted by a call from a buddy that informed him of being se...

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    Lucas Giolito is worth the risk

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-06-04
    The Mariners did well in selecting Mike Zunino at No. 3 overall. Many were hoping that either Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa would've landed in the Emerald City, but the catcher out of Florida, once he signs, will immediately make the Mariners farm system better. He may not have the upside of an athlete like Buxton or Correa, but it's hard to dislike a potential major league catcher who could be worth at least 2-3 Wins-Above-Replacement each year. Zunino is the type of player that makes a positive impact on an organization.

    However, I believe that the most impactful--and pleasantly surprising--draft pick of 2012 was Lucas Giolito going sixteenth overall to the Washington Nationals. The entire collective of baseball must have grinned a bit when the Selig made the announcement at the podium during the draft. The Nationals already have an ace-in-the-making with Stephen Strasburg. Jordan Zimmerman will be an above-average innings eater. And by the time Giolito makes it to the show, Gio Gonzalez will be a bona fide veteran starter. Baseball fans in Seattle love to talk about the big three in Jackson, and while Seattle's Cerberus certainly has the potential to be one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, the Nationals could have four above-average to elite starting pitchers.

    The right-handed Giolito sits in the mid-to-high nineties with a curveball that has tilt, and a changeup that's still coming along. He doesn't turn 18-years-old until July, and he may be the o...

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    Scouting Mike Zunino

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-04
    The Seattle Mariners called the name of Florida Gators catcher Mike Zunino with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 Draft. That came after The Houston Astros tabbed shortstop Carlos Correa at No. 1 and the Minnesota Twins drafted top overall prospect Byron Buxton, an outfielder from Baxley, Georgia.

    Zunino, the top college bat in a class lacking depth in that area, generally receives average or better grades across the board, including receiving, blocking and throwing, and offers above-average-to-plus power with the bat.

    He understands the game of baseball and knows how to catch. He has leadership skills, big-league makeup and as one scout put it early on draft day, "he has that vinegar, that extra gear of effort and feel that makes you want him on your team."

    Hitting | Power
    Zunino works counts, doesn't chase a lot and does damage in the form of extra-base hits, but he will swing-and-miss some and since he likes to get deep into counts he will strike out some, though contact rates aren't of great concern. He'll draw enough walks to counter.

    Zunino uses the middle of the field and has power from straight-away left field to right-center, and gets good backspin. He covers the plate well and doesn't appear to have any significant problems versus the better breaking balls he's seen in college.

    Mechanically, he's sound, though the swing isn't necessarily simple, and he stays closed and rotates his hips well.

    Defense
    With...

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    2012 MLB Draft

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-04
    It's Draft Day -- part 1 of 3, anyway -- and we're live chatting right here, but also offer the following resources:

    One thing fans should know is their teams' bonus pool limits. The Seattle Mariners have $8,223,400 to spend on 11 picks in the first 10 rounds. After round 10, the bonus limit is $100,000 per pick.

    Day 1 consists of 60 picks -- the entire first round and the compensation round to follow. Day 2 starts with the first selection in Round 2 and continues through round 15.

    The Mariners select No. 3 overall, and then at Nos. 64, 98, 126 and 131, which takes us through round 4. After that, they pick every 30 picks -- 161, 191, and so on, through round 40.

    Latest Mock Draft

    Chris Crawford's latest Mock

    Top 200 Prospects

    Top College Bats

    Top College Starting Pitchers

    Top Prep Starting Pitchers

    Top Prep Bats

    Top Right-handed Pitchers
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    Mock Draft and Draft Podcast

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-06-04
    Here is the latest Mock Draft, which will be updated one more time prior to the start of the draft Monday. Subscribers only.

    Chris Crawford and I did a short podcast, discussing the draft and the report Sunday that the Houston Astros are "expected" to take Mark Appel at No. 1....

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    Draft Rankings: M's board, NW Top 25

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-31
    I'll have two more mock drafts over the next four days -- the final one coming Monday afternoon. The latest mock can be found here.

    Today, however, is my first shot at mocking the Seattle Mariners draft board. Subscribers can check that out here.

    On that board is a collaboration of the M's top 10 -- from what I can gather, anyway -- and some prospects the club may be targeting for rounds two and three.

    For those subscribers interested in which players from the northwest are worth keeping an eye on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, here is my Top 25 Prep Prospects for the northwest, plus mention of some college players that should hear their name called at some point next week.

    This weekend, Chris Crawford and I will finalize our mock drafts, Top 200 several other rankings such as by position, which will all be published before the draft starts Monday.

    We'll be live chatting during the draft Monday, too. The chat and many of the rankings will be free to all. The final Mock Draft and the final Top 200, like the NW Top 25 and M's Mock Draft Board linked above, will only be available to subscribers.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and sign up.

    ...

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    M's shake up bullpen

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-30
    On the night the Seattle Mariners offense erupted for 21 runs -- one shy of the club record set in April, 1999 -- the club has optioned right-handed reliever Steve Delabar to Triple-A Tacoma.

    The corresponding move will be made official before Friday's series in Chicago, but it's going to be right-hander Stephen Pryor.

    How the M's make room on the roster is another question. They could move George Sherrill to the 60-day disabled list, or they could designate a player for assignment. Don't count on the DFA.

    With Pryor up, the Rainiers will get Delabar, but concerning the players on the Rainiers roster that have June 1 free agency clauses -- as Mike Curto points on via Twitter -- if any of them opt out, Carter Capps could be on his way to Tacoma, too.

    Pryor sits 94-98 mph with his fastball and the ball explodes out of his hand. His control and command are still fringy, but it's improved, and he's learning to use his slider better. That slider hits 86-89 mph on the gun, and he also employs a changeup that I did not see in two appearances in Tacoma, nor in four appearances on TV when he was in Jackson.

    Pryor may get save chances at some point, but I don't expect him to tossed into such a situation right away. It may not take long, however, and he has the raw stuff to get the job done.
    ...

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    Hultzen, Franklin are ready for Tacoma

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-29
    Perhaps the most asked question of me the past few weeks has been about the promotion timetables of left-hander Danny Hultzen and shortstop Nick Franklin. The my response generally has been something like "not yet, he has things to clean up, yet," and at the time, for Hultzen, that was indeed true.

    That does not appear to be the case any longer.

    Hultzen, last June's No. 2 overall pick, has found his control and command and based on that fact and the stuff he brings to the table -- poise, feel, consistent and above-average stuff -- it's my opinion he should not make another start in Double-A Jackson.

    The Virginia product tossed six shutout innings Monday, allowing five hits and two walks and striking out five, and has now issues just four bases on balls and 13 hits in his past 19 innings, covering three starts. During that span, Hutlzen has notched 25 strikeouts.

    For the year, the organization's No. 2 prospect, s 5-3 with a 1.59 ERA and 61-27 K/BB ratio in 56 2/3 innings. He's served up just two long balls and has held opponents to a .155 average.

    There are no challenges left for him in the Southern League. It's time for Hultzen to bring his game to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League where the hitters are far more experienced, chase less and do more damage when a pitcher makes a mistake.

    It's either that or the big leagues, and due to potential workload concerns -- it's absolutely not a good idea for Hultzen to approach 200 innings thi...

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    Shutdowns, Meltdowns and the M's

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-05-27
    Now that Brandon League has been demoted from the closer's role, Eric Wedge has stated that he'll choose the closer by committee. Wedge did the same thing last year, and the demotion only lasted about a week. League looked good in the first couple weeks of the season, but since then he hasn't been able to control any of his pitches. His fastball has roughly the same amount of movement it did last year, but his velocity is a tick down. Combined with the fact he's having trouble commanding the pitch, it makes sense that he already has four blown saves this year, compared to five in all of last year. The idea of the closer is an archaic one, but because of the economy that's grown around the role, it doesn't stand to disappear anytime soon.

    I wanted to look at a couple of new stats that are starting to gain traction in shutdowns and meltdowns. Simply put, it's a stat that measures the effectiveness of a reliever using WPA. If the reliever increases the probability of winning by more than 6%, or 0.06 WPA, the pitcher gets a shutdown. Inversely, if the reliever decreases the probability of winning by 0.06 WPA, the pitcher gets a meltdown. The advantag...

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    Crawford's Corner: MiLB vs. MLB

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-05-24
    Last week I talked about my trip to Yankee Stadium, and hopefully it came across that I did thoroughly enjoy my trip to the Bronx.
    I think some of you probably could tell, though, that I was slightly disappointed at the same time. The more I thought about it the more I realized that it wasn't a stadium problem, it was a matter of personal preference. A preference that is (obviously) not shared across America, but a revelation that has been a long time coming for me.

    I prefer watching Minor League Baseball.

    Now, there's an obvious reason for this -- I write for a website called Prospect Insider, after all -- but it's not just about that. There are some significant, understated advantages that the farm team games have that go unnoticed by too many.

    Here are three reasons why I'd rather watch a game at Cheney Stadium in Tacoma over a game at the Safe in Seattle.

    Price
    I know, this is a fairly obvious one, but it had to be mentioned. Taking a family of four to a big league game in this economy is basically a vacation. Taking your family to a Pacific Coast League game costs you less than a trip to Applebees.

    It's not just the tickets and parking, either. When I was first looking up costs for my trip up to New York, they wante...

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    Draft Chat, Mock 4.0

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-22
    In case you missed it, I released the latest Prospect Insider Mock Draft Friday night. You can check that out right here.

    You can check out Chris Crawford's latest mock right here.

    ESPN Insider's Keith Law published his first mock last week.

    I'll be chatting at 7:30 PM PT tonight, so while you are watching the M's-Rangers, jump on your computer and let's talk draft, scouting and player development, as well as any other baseball-related topics. I also accept questions on The Big Bang Theory and take recommendations for lunch in the Seattle area....

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    Franklin developing into M's next SS

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-22
    Despite three multi-hit games in the past two weeks and a much more acceptable .263/.391/.368 line the past seven days, Brendan Ryan is still batting .170 with a .294 OBP and .250 slugging. He's terrific defensively, perhaps the best in baseball right now, but his struggles at the plate have many wondering when the club will have better options.

    The answer may be "very soon."

    The club has a few shortstops in the minors that project significantly better than Ryan. Carlos Triunfel boasts a .271/.331/.446 triple-slash in Tacoma and is mashing in May to the tune of a .329/.386/.553 line. It's my opinion, however, that he makes too many mistakes in the field to play shortstop regularly, despite showing adequate range and possessing plenty of arm strength.

    Triunfel could be a short-term stop-gap, but I'm not confident he can come up to the majors right now and be more valuable overall than Ryan has been thus far. He's the kind of player that needs to search for his comfort zone and make adjustments, and that takes time.

    Brad Miller, the club's second round pick last June, is hitting over .300 in Advanced-A High Desert and showing power and patience, despite some contact issues of late. Defensively it's still a work-in-progress, at best, and it's likely he...

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    Scouting the new Denny Almonte

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-18
    Many have been asking about outfielder Denny Almonte, who is batting .286/.360/.456 with six homers for Double-A Jackson. He's the strikeout king, he's the no-walk master. So much so that Chris Crawford played a little game the past few years: Who would have a better/worse K/BB ratio, Almonte or Cliff Lee?

    Almonte is still just 23 years old and handles center field adequately with a plus throwing arm. He's a switch hitter, runs well and despite ridiculously poor contact rates in recent seasons, is showing signs of, well, flipping the switch.

    He does have 40 strike outs in 40 games in 2012 and is struggling the past 10-12 games a little bit, but after not drawing a walk through the middle of the opening month, he has 13 of them and 20 punch outs the last 28 games since going 0-for-7 with six strikeouts April 15.

    He's hitting from both sides of the plate -- he's better as a lefty, which is the desired side -- but the biggest news is the walks. At 16, he's more than half way to his career best of 29 in 2008 and we're less than a third of the way through the schedule.

    A scout in attendance recently simply said "he's definitely improved ... that's a much better hitter." This could be something to keep an eye on, because if Almonte can sustain such r...

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    Catricala working through struggles

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-05-17
    Vinnie Catricala, the Prospect of the Year here at Prospect Insider for 2011, still began the spring as a bit of an unknown. He then turned into a surprise story that broke out and captured the attention of M's fans and local media.

    After a strong Cactus League run that saw him bop a couple homers and put up a near-.900 OPS, eyebrows raised.

    Catricala earned his assignment to Triple-A Tacoma and had many folks excited about his offensive potential.

    Through 37 games and 159 trips to the dish in 2012, Catricala might feel like he's having something of an out-of-body experience this season. What's behind the struggles?

    "Obviously, the pitchers are a lot smarter up here," Catricala reasoned regarding his new level. "With that being said, though, I haven't felt like I've shown up yet. I feel like I haven't been present the entire time. I haven't felt like my normal self."

    While Catricala's line this season doesn't look sexy (.204/.258/.265), he's shown a more life at the plate since the month of May arrived. He had a nice stretch where he collected hits in seven of 10 games. Included in that span were four of his seven extra-base hits, including his lone ho...

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    My day at The Stadium

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-05-16
    As most of you know -- mainly because I can't shut up about it -- I am moving back to the state of Washington. I have enjoyed the east coast, for the most part, but I lived in Olympia for the first 26 years of my life, and I miss it.

    Since I'm making my trek home soon, I decided it was a good idea to spend some of my not-so-hard-earned cash and check out some of the things that would be logistical nightmares from the west, and one of those things was to check out a Yankees game.

    Love or despise them, you can't dispute their legacy as the greatest franchise in the four major sports, and with the Seattle Mariners on the schedule, I wouldn't feel too bad
    about telling my friends I was going to see the Bronx Bombers. I even went all out and spent some cash and got tickets for the Delta Sky Suite. You only live once, right?

    I thought you guys might find a recap of my day at Yankee Stadium fun, so here's my recall of what I saw and experienced.

    Also, here's a link
    to the box score and play-by-play so you have an idea what the heck I'm talking about.

    1:00 PM
    This is my first time on a subway. Movies have made the subway seem like a very scary ordeal. It's not so bad. It probably helps that we're leaving three hours before the g...

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    A look at Stephen Pryor

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-05-12
    Alex Carson wrote that Stephen Pryor's Triple-A debut was electric. His fastball has the stuff to quiet the low rumble of an inebriated stadium, but more importantly, it silenced the Albuquerque bats. He sat around 97 mph in the two innings he pitched this last Thursday, and the Isotope batters simply looked outmatched and overpowered. Of the six outs he recorded on Thursday, three of them were strikeouts. He induced one ground ball out, a fly out and a line out to right field. He allowed a walk in the eighth and a ground ball single in the ninth.

    Pryor has big league caliber stuff. In his two-year professional career, he's posted a 12.5 strikeout-per-nine ratio. In the 19 innings this year in the time he's split between Jackson and Tacoma, he has 29 strikeouts and six walks to go with a 0.737 WHIP and a monstrous 13.7 strikeout-per-nine. And although his groundout-to-flyout numbers may not translate to the majors, his 0.61 GO/AO ratio would be good for a ground-ball percentage of 29. In other words, when he's not striking out batters, he's going to be an extreme flyball pitcher. He would fit perfectly at Safeco Field.

    And I don't think he'll stay in the minors for very long.

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    Smoak, Ackley, Seager, Saunders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-14
    Justin Smoak is struggling at the plate -- that is no secret. The switch hitter entered play Friday in New York batting .173/.229/.264 with four extra-base hits. Nothing he's doing is working, even when he hits the ball hard. His BABIP was a ridiculously low .203, and it dipped to .166 over the previous 13 games, which is some serious bad luck. But even with his career norms in BABIP Smoak would have been hitting just .238. That isn't good enough. Not to play every day on a contending team.

    Most ask "why is Smoak struggling so badly?" The answer is simple, though the fix is not. Yes, he's been unlucky, so some of that will have to start landing in his favor. He's hit 14 balls on the nose this year that were caught or turned into outs. The average Mariners regular -- those that currently would qualify for the battle title at 3.1 PAs per team game played -- has four. Dustin Ackley is the only other hitter on the team with more than six -- he has eight.

    Smoak has a long swing. It's not what I'd call incredibly long, but it's a bit lengthy from the left side. On top of that, his bat speed is fringy. In order to avoid getting blown away by 92-plus mph fastballs regularly, Smoak has to look fastball and react breaking ball. That can work fine for sluggers with plus pitch recognition, which is something Smoak has displayed in his short big-league career, but he hasn't done it well in 2012.

    Smoak's approach may need to be tweaked and constant work on shortening t...

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    To care or not to care

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-05-10
    Alex Carson on Stephen Pryor's Triple-A debut


    I was never a big autograph guy. I have my share, an autographed Ken Griffey, Jr. and Harmon Killebrew baseball sit atop my DVD shelf as I type this, but I didn't see the point of waiting in line just to get someone's signature. My friends as a kid, however, were such hounds. Anytime I would go to a game with my buddies instead of the family, they always wanted to get there early to see if they could get one of the visiting players to sign their card or glove, etc.

    One summer day, we got tickets to see the Indians take on the Mariners. This was when Cleveland was one of the hottest tickets in town; Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, and one of the best hitters in baseball: Albert Belle. As we made our way to the side gates, I offered my glove to several of the players walking into the clubhouse, getting turned down by the likes of Omar Vizquel, Paul Assenmacher and Mark Carreon (Google him), I offer my glove to Belle, who doesn't even look my way. Out of the corner of my eye, I see my friend -- we'll call him Joe -- offered the slugger a different item.

    A cork.

    What unleashed was a verbal tirade that would have made Andrew Dice Clay queasy. Had this been in the TMZ days, Belle assuredly would have been suspended, and my friend surely would have been famous -- for a few minutes anyway -- but outside of scari...

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    MLB Mock Draft 3.0

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-05-04
    Here is an updated Mock Draft and Top 100 fresh through Thursday night.

    Mock

    Top 100

    Draft Order

    We will have a chat, all things fair game, Sunday night at 7pm....

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    The day I fell in love with baseball

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-05-02
    I'd just like everyone to keep a couple of things in mind when they're reading this. The first thing is that I love my Dad, and I respect him, but I am an open book and I believe honesty is important with my writing. Secondly, I've always loved baseball, but I have found that most people have a specific event or date that changes their feelings about the game forever.

    That date for me was October 8, 1995, and the event was game five of the American League Division Series between the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees. I'm sure this is a special day for everyone that can call themselves a fan of the team -- or just hates the Yankees -- but it was a day that changed my life for a different reason.

    As a child, my dad and I had what I could only say was a tumultuous relationship. While well intentioned, there were flaws in both of us that led to mostly fights, and -- as most twelve year-olds are -- I was a selfish brat who only wanted to see things one way -- mine. It didn't help that my Mom and Dad were still married, but there was no reason other than my sister and me for them to be. They were too different in the important stuff, and too similar in the very important things.

    As luck would have it, my father was able to score tickets to game four and five of...

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    Yankees can still win the big trade

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-04-29
    Some bittersweet news surfaced Wednesday afternoon: Michael Pineda will go under the knife May 1 to repair an anterior labral tear. It's tough news to take in for New York Yankees fans.

    Pineda was supposed to be their starting rotation stalwart, and now New Yorkers will have to wait a year to see the kid pitch. And on the other side of the country, Mariners fans probably can't help but feel as if the team now has won the blockbuster trade. That's the end goal, after all. Winning.

    But it's hard to root against a youngster like Pineda. I'm sure Seattle fans can still picture his monstrous demeanor on the field, and his positive enthusiasm and smile off of it.

    I think it's a bit too early for M's fans to celebrate just yet. Sure, in the immediate, it looks like things are swinging in Seattle's favor. Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi may still be trying to get their footing with the big club, but at least the players involved in the trade are contributing at the major-league level. New York definitely can't say that.

    With starting rotation problems last year, Pineda was supposed to be their bastion of hope. The young stud was supposed to fix the Yankees' starting rotation woes, but with their starting rotation still struggling to find consistency this year, The Evil Empire is definitely feeling like a loser in the Montero-Pin...

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    The M's Offense

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-26
    Prospect Insider Live Chat @ 7PM Tonight!

    The Seattle Mariners have been shut out three times this season by three different teams and have scored fewer than three runs in a game on three others occasions. That means they have scored four or more runs 12 times and exactly three runs three times for a total of 81 runs in 20 games. That is an average of four runs per game, and the club needed the big series in Detroit to get there.

    Still paltry, right?

    Not so fast.

    The M's averaged 3.4 runs per game a year ago and 3.16 runs per game two seasons ago, marking the 2012 version as a fairly significant upgrade even by the terms of raw data. Furthermore, the M's may be averaging only four runs per game, but that's better than 14 other clubs, including five other teams in the American League.

    The point is, the times continue to change in favor of pitching and defense in the game of baseball and the Mariners are not far from respectable production. Only five clubs are scoring more than five runs per game this season, suggesting a "good" offensive club doesn't need to score 800 runs anymore. Perhaps 730, which is 4.5 per, is enough to be competitive assuming t...

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    Prospect Notebook: Promising starts

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-25
    The Seattle Mariners farm system is as interesting as it has ever been -- even more so, truly -- with three legitimate frontline prospects and several B- to B+ level talents. Many of them are in the middle of the minors -- Class-A High Desert and Double-A Jackson -- but each of the four active affiliates have intriguing talents.

    Many of my conversations with scouts since the winter involve the estimate of how many future big league regulars are in the upper three levels for the M's. If you are a sports betting guru, my advice is to bet on the over.

    Let's get to some notes.

    Chih-Hsien Chiang, RF
    Alex Carson and I went down to see Chiang live Monday and several things stood out to me. Some good, some not so good, but the one surprise was how physically sturdy Chiang appears, versus my look at him at the Futures Game last summer.

    Chiang's swing is geared for line drives and he's now shorter to the ball than he was last year prior to the trade. His hands drift some, however, perhaps making it tough for him to get to his pull side, where nearly all of his power is, especially with his fringy bat speed. The 23-year-old singled and struck out in four trips to the plate Mo...

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    Baseball pet peeves

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-04-25
    Everyone has their pet peeves; those things, sometimes odd things, that really, really bother you more than it probably should and make you wonder why exactly they don't annoy the heck out of everyone else. Be it the sound of someone picking their nails, or the relative that doesn't say thank you when you pass them the salt or open the door for them (you know who you are), there's always an annoying habit or flaw that will make even the sweetest of homosapiens intolerable for short to long periods of time.

    Most of my pet peeves, however, involve baseball. There are several things about the game -- which I love and adore, don't get me wrong -- thatdrive me up the wall, but here's a list of five that really seem to get under my skin the most.

    1. Umpires who act out a play when calling strikes
    Why do umpires need to make such a dramatic fuss about calling a third strike (or even an out call on the bases or at the plate for that matter)? All they are doing is drawing attention to them – rather than, you know, the guy who actually did something athletic and impressive -- and making batters all the more annoyed. If I was John Every Batter and was punched out on a bad strike three call and then saw what can only be described as a bad interpretive dan...

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    Buxton the right move for M's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-20
    Play FREE Daily Fantasy Baseball for $200 cash prizes

    Subscribers can check out the latest mock draft here

    "With the third pick in the 2012 Major League Baseball First-Year Players Draft, the Seattle Mariners select Byron Buxton, outfielder, Appling County High School, Baxter, Georgia."

    If the above rings true in seven weeks, M's fan should be utterly ecstatic. Of course, there are other potential selections that appear to be good choices, too, but Buxton has the best shot to be a superstar among the entire crop.

    Yes, it's a bit of a down year, but as one scouting director told me earlier this week, "you still go into the ballpark every day thinking 'I'm going to find a big-leaguer today.'"

    The clubs that draft well -- not just at the top of the draft, that's a lot easier, in comparison -- but after rounds one and two, after the buzz-worthy talents are gone, they want to win every round. It used to be all the way to 50, now the draft is 10 rounds shorter.

    M's scouting director Tom McNamara is a rare bird. "He works to win all 5...

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    FREE Fantasy Contest

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-18
    If you haven't heard yet, there's a new way to play fantasy baseball that turns the season long grind into quick one-night leagues. And the best part is that you can win cash every single day. You draft a team for one night and get paid out as soon as the games end that night. DraftStreet.com is at the forefront of this new trend in the fantasy world and is giving readers at Prospect Insider a great promotion: a FREE one-day fantasy league with $200 in prizes -- exclusively for PROSPECT INSIDER readers.

    This free contest will be salary-cap style drafting where everyone tries to assemble the best team out of the available players. You will have a $100,000 budget to build a team of 14 players consisting of the following: Catcher, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 Utility, 2 SP, 1 RP, and 1 P. Each MLB player has been assigned a price based on their expected fantasy performance.

    You can adjust your roster up until the contest starts on Friday April 20th at 7:05 PM ET at which time your rosters will lock and the Live Scoreboard will be available.

    CLICK HERE to sign up for free and register for the PROSPECT INSIDER $200 Freeroll on DraftStreet.com.

    One added bonus is that the PI staff will be playing as well. Are you smarter than Prospect Insider?...

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    Pitch count fallacies

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-04-18
    There are a plethora of false-truths in baseball, ranging from "you have to be fast in order to be a leadoff hitter" to the comically insane "you can't have left handed starters pitch on back to back days." Most of these are fairly harmless -- albeit annoying and can cost you a few games -- but the long-term effects are negligible.

    There is, however, a fallacy that not only effects teams, but shortens careers and can cause unnecessary suffering to those involved. It comes in the form of high pitch counts. It's one of the most controversial subjects in the game, and is the cause of great debate and turmoil with players, coaches, and parents alike.

    Where it's the most contested, however, is at the collegiate level. Because of the manner in which college baseball is scheduled, there are several different arguments the ill-informed -- or stubborn -- will bring up in order to try and win their argument that high pitch accounts are acceptable. Let's take a look at these on a case-by-case basis, and I'll tell you why I think all of them are bogus and potentially harmful.

    By the way, these would also go for prep arms.

    Fallacy 1: They have a week off, so it allots them extra pitches
    This is the most common argument I hear, and it's probably the worst. It doesn't matter if the player had a week or a month off, the stress of throwing 120-130 pitches for an 18 to 22 year-old is still asking way too much. It's unnecessary risk of the pitcher...

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    Scouting Matt Hague

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-04-17
    We often see things in the game of baseball that appear as impossible feats. Hitting four home runs in a single game, batting .400 for the season or playing in 2,632 consecutive games. So Matt Hague hasn't done the impossible quite yet. The Kentwood High School alumnus was the last player to make the Pittsburgh Pirates out of spring training. Hague and two others had hit the most home runs, seven, out of the 30 clubs during spring training.

    The other two players: Freddie Freeman and Albert Pujols.

    Clint Hurdle, the Pirates manager, used the right-handed Hague in a true platoon situation, in that Garrett Jones will get the at-bats against right-handed pitching, and the inverse held true for Hague. A week or so ago, Hurdle had opted to give more at-bats to Full Story - Comments (3)
    The Next Mariners Closer

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-15
    The future is discussed a lot -- it's what we do here at Prospect Insider -- but following this weekends events, it may be time to start thinking about who handles the late innings once the Seattle Mariners are a club primed to contend in the American League West.

    We know the offense needs to develop and another few bats need to be added to the roster before the M's can be expected to win 90-plus game. We know the development of The Big Three is critical to that future, too. The bullpen, however, is something we don't talk about enough. After all, even the clubs that make the postseason and the World Series generally go to their relief corps to cover about 30 percent of the innings pitched over the course of the season.

    Most of those perennial contenders around the league -- including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies-- have spent significant resources putting together their bullpens. Free agent money, for the most part.

    Seattle, thanks to the draft and a couple of trades and minor league free agent signings, may not have to do anything but find a dominant left-handed option, because the other pieces may already be in the organization.

    Right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen is proving his worth in the big league...

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    2012 Mock Draft 2.0

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-14
    We're about halfway through the D-1 season and the prep kids are all under way now. That means clubs are starting to get an idea of who will make their board. Clubs don't typically start putting their boards this early, but GMs could hit the trail on top talents soon and scouting directors, area scouts, supervisors and crosscheckers have been quite busy already.

    There are still questions as to whom the Houston Astros select at No. 1 overall, which means the rest of the draft cannot be gauged with much certainty. We try, anyway, of course.

    Since the season started nearly two months ago, things have changed quit a bit, so let's check in with stock up, stock down.

    Stock up
    As you'll see in the updated Top 100 and the latest Mock Draft, there are several changes to the top two rounds worth of talent.

    Richie Shaffer, 3B -- Clemson
    Shaffer began the year on the outside of the first round due to a long swing, and nobody was writing about him -- Full Story - Comments (28)
    Crawford's Corner

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-04-10

    The Feature: The danger of scouting with stats
    Very late last night, I was talking to a former beat writer about Chicago Cubs first baseman and former Seattle Mariners farmhand Bryan LaHair hitting a ball out of Wrigley Field, and how it was "awesome" that he was being given a chance to play regularly at the major league level. This prompted me to make a joke about former Tacoma Rainier A.J. Zapp, and how he must have thought it was unfair that LaHair was being given a chance when Zapp was not. He responded that LaHair never struck out like Zapp did, and that of course lead to us looking at Baseball Reference and comparing their Triple-A numbers, and reminiscing about other guys who were never given their shot.

    It is one of the oldest clichés in the sport, but here it is anyway: Baseball is a game of numbers. It always has been and it always will be. Whether you have the trading card companies or Bill James to blame, every generation has had statistics thrust upon us, and we love it. Sure, basketball and football have their famous numbers and important thresholds, but not to the point of baseball, and it's one of my favorite parts of the game.

    Where these statistics can get fans in trouble, however, is when we use them to judge the developme...

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    John Lannan and Jason Vargas

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-04-09
    There are a handful of things a disgruntled employee could do to express their angst towards an employer. The employee could lash out towards their boss, but that would ensure immediate termination. Perhaps they could file a grievance, but bureaucracy's umbrella always protects from the top down. Most often, the dissatisfied employee keeps their dismay to themselves, letting the issue pass or attempting to positively resolve the issue.

    John Lannan decided to share his disapproval with the entire baseball community. He was optioned to AAA this last week, and to express his dissatisfaction, he emailed local reporters to acknowledge his request to be traded. Lannan believes he belongs in a big league rotation, and with a salary of about $5 million, it makes sense that the Nationals would think of Lannan as more than an expensive insurance plan. But with the acquisition of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, and the development of Full Story - Comments (23)
    Soft Tossing Felix

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-04-07
    All this talk about Felix Hernandez losing velocity has moved fans from an excited state to a curious purgatory. If you haven't heard, Felix is sitting around 89-90 miles-per-hour on his fastball, down from his typical 93-94 mph. Some thought that he may have just been easing his way into the season, but over the past week, the welling of confusion came to a frothy head.

    On one hand, it's something to be worried about. It may not warrant serious concern, but a drop in velocity could be a symptom of a handful of things. Maybe he's masking an injury, maybe it's something mechanical. All's quiet on the clubhouse front, so it's hard to say right now. On the other hand, the results he's produced while he's had this "lost" velocity seem to be in line with typical Felix stuff. Jokingly, he said he just wanted to be like Jamie Moyer. And although that may have been simple PR deflection, Felix usually comes through as a transparent person. He hasn't hidden an injury before, and with the Michael Pineda situation gaining momentum in New York, it woul...

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    MiLB Opening Night

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-06
    Draft Weekly: The M's should pass on Appel

    I was not in attendance in Triple-A Tacoma for Opening Night for the first time since 2003. It felt weird, but duty called me to see potential No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel at the University of Washington.

    Four Seattle Mariners affiliates opened their seasons Thursday, and as most nights will turn up, it ended with mixed results.

    Clinton, Class-A -- Midwest League
    The LumberKings fell 8-2 and there wasn't much to write home about in terms of individual performances. Leadoff man and centerfielder Jamal Austin and left fielder Guillermo Pimentel each went 0-for-4.

    Jabari Blash tripled in four trips to the plate but also fanned twice while Steven Baron singled twice in three at-bats.

    None of the pitching "prospects" debuted, but Stephen Kohlscheen threw the ball well in relief, covering four innings.

    Ramon Morla, of whom I am not much of a fan despite his bat speed and arm strength, doubled and stole a base and fomer prospect Jharmidy De Jesus singled and walked twice.

    High Desert, Advanced-A -- California League
    Where the other affiliates didn't hit, the Mavericks picked up the slack. Better yet, the names did most of the damage.

    Stefen Romero, who may still be underrated, including by me, went 4-for-5 with a double and a homer, and shortstop Brad Miller trip...

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    M's should pass on Appel

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-06
    Since late last summer, Stanford right-hander Mark Appel has been thought to be a top candidate to go No. 1 overall in this year's draft. It's a mediocre class, but Appel does fit the profile of a potential future ace.

    He stands 6-foot-5 and wears 220 pounds well on an athletic frame. He's touched the upper 90s with his four-seam fastball and has flashed a useful slider and a potentially-plus changeup. The problems has been -- for most of last season and part of this one -- he doesn't miss bats as much his raw stuff suggests he should.

    He's had starts this season where he's piled up the whiffs, however, and on those days his command was above-average and the slider was more than just a show-me offering. In those outings, Appel looked the part of a future No. 1 starter and a worthy option for the No. 1 overall selection.

    On Thursday evening at Husky Ballpark on the campus of the University of Washington, Appel was none of the above.

    He sat 95-97 mph in the first inning -- one in which Huskies third baseman Jacob Lamb tagged him with a two-run double to the opposite field in left-center on a 95 mph four-seamer -- and was overthrowing the slider. He walked two to set up the drive by Lamb.

    He didn't command his fastball in that initial inning.

    H...

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    Roster Reactions

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-05
    The Seattle Mariners unveiled their gem of a farm system Wednesday, announcing the Opening Day rosters for all four full-season affiliates.

    There really weren't any surprises for me, but there are some intriguing assignments and interesting roster units.

    Let's discuss.

    Clinton, Class-A -- Midwest League
    Clinton housed both Taijuan Walker and James Paxton last season and were interesting to follow all year because of that. The bats rarely do well here -- part of it is the ridiculous weather and the fairer ballparks (compared to short-season ball and High Desert) and partially due to the fact that it's the first time young position players are playing a full season and they are often younger than the average player in the circuit.

    I like the outfield on this team -- Jabari Blash, Jamal Austin and Mario Yepez can all defend well.

    Most Interesting Assignment
    Ambioris Hidalgo, RHP
    Hidalgo has above-average stuff and if he succeeds in the Midwest League at age 21 he may have a shot to be a sleeper prospect in the system. He's always missed bats, but his control has been spotty and he's had problems keeping it together through the lineup the second and third time through. He should be destined for the bullpen where his stuff may play up.

    Best Prospect
    Guillermo Pimentel, LF
    Pimentel has plus power and a short, consistent...

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    Official MiLB rosters 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-04
    The Mariners have announced the rosters for their full-season minor league affiliates.

    Let's get to it:

    Clinton, Class-A (Midwest League)
    Pitchers
    Wes Alsup, RHP
    Josh Corrales, RHP
    Tim Griffin, RHP
    Ambioris Hidalgo, RHP
    Cameron Hobson, LHP
    Kyle Hunter, LHP
    Stephen Kolsheen, RHP
    Stephen Landazuri, RHP
    Trever Miller, RHP
    Brett Shankin, RHP
    Jordan Shipers, LHP
    John Taylor, RHP

    Catchers
    Michael Dowd
    Steven Baron
    Carlton Tanabe

    Infielders
    Jharmidy DeJesus
    Dillon Hazlett
    Ramon Morla
    Daniel Paolini
    Anthony Phillips

    Outfielders
    Guillermo Pimentel
    Jabari Blash
    Jamal Austin
    Mario Yepez

    High Desert -- Advanced-A (California League)
    Pitchers
    Jonathan Arias, RHP
    Tyler Burgoon, RHP
    Roenis Elias, LHP
    Anthony Fernandez, LHP
    Jimmy Gilheeney, LHP
    Austin Hudson, RHP
    Jose Jimenez, LHP
    Willy Kesler, RHP
    George Mieses, RHP
    Jandy Sena, RHP
    Carson Smith, RHP
    Chris Sorce, RHP
    Taylor Stanton, RHP

    Catchers
    John Hicks
    Jack Marder

    Infielders
    Patrick Brady
    Mario Martinez
    Steve Proscia
    Brad Miller
    Stefen Romero (OF)
    Mickey Wiswall

    Outfielders
    Julio Morban
    Mike McGee
    Kevin Rivers
    James Jones

    Jackson -- Double-A (Southern League)
    Pitchers
    Taijuan Walker, RHP
    James Paxton, LHP
    Danny Hultzen, LHP<...

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    Discussion: MiLB Rosters 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-04-01
    UPDATE | Tuesday, April 3 The rosters have yet to be announced -- obviously -- and I haven't heard anything from the team. Once they are available, everyone and their favorite pet will have them, so we'll put them all in one place and react to them, but we won't be breaking that news.

    The official rosters for the full-season affiliates will be announced Monday, either by the Seattle Mariners or the affiliates themselves, or both.

    We'll react to the assignments, as always, but I don't expect there to be many surprises.

    As I wrote in the Prospect Insider Handbook, all indications are that the Big Three -- left-handers Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, and right-hander Taijuan Walker -- are headed for Double-A Jackson to start the season.

    Also likely to start 2012 with the Generals are third baseman Francisco Martinez and shortstop Nick Franklin. Barring any surprises in Jackson, five of the top six prospects in the system will begin the season in Jackson.

    Vincent Catricala, the No. 7 prospect in the organization, will head to Triple-A and play third base exclusively. His defensive showing this spring was a marked improvement over what he'd shown at the hot corner in the past, and now there is more confidence he can manage at the position regularly.

    As the rosters are released we'll go roster-by-roster, position-by-position, discussing the nature of the assignment and what could be next for that player in terms of big league...

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    Japan wrap

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-03-29
    The Mariners' trip to Japan is now behind us as they lost to Oakland Athletics this morning 4-1 at the Tokyo Dome, garnering the boys in road grays a two-game globetrotting split. I think this is a good time to reflect on what a unique event this was.

    There have been Japan opening series' before. The A's have even taken part in one of the previous three iterations. So this isn't unique for everyone, but it's unique for Mariners fans. It's not like anyone was excited to wake up in the wee hours or, in some cases, pull all-nighters. But many of us found excitement in early morning baseball and hanging out with other crazies who share our fanatical love of these Mariners.

    Ichiromania

    We've all heard or read that Ichiro is something of an icon in the land of the rising sun. The past week did little to dispel that notion. I'm guessing the giant Ichiro beer ad beyond the left-center wall was quite a distance from home plate. I was left to wonder if Wily Mo Pena could have hit a baseball off Ichiro's left eye.

    Expanding the Game and Humanitarian Efforts

    I found it neat to see the Mariners players visiting tsunami stricken areas of the country, doing their best to teach baseball youth at clinics. Our great game has seen participation decline here at home. As someone who coaches youth, we struggled to field a full team last season. It was commonplace for one team to loan a player to an opponent in our league. So if t...

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    2012 Predictions

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-27
    The Prospect Insider staff has made their predictions for the 2012 Major League Baseball season. You can also make yours right here and now.

    Below, you'll see the staff's picks for the 2012 MLB season.

    How many wins will the Seattle Mariners collect during the 2012 MLB regular season?
    Churchill: 76
    Crawford: 78
    Carson: 79
    Wong: 77

    Ichiro's 2012 batting average
    Churchill: .296
    Crawford: .302
    Carson: .311
    Wong: .287

    Ichiro's hit total
    Churchill: 202
    Crawford: 199
    Carson: 204
    Wong: 187

    Dustin Ackley batting average
    Churchill: .288
    Crawford: .287
    Carson: .297
    Wong: .314

    Justin Smoak home runs
    Churchill: 27
    Crawford: 24
    Carson: 22
    Wong: 25

    Jesus Montero home runs
    Churchill: 31
    Crawford: 28
    Carson: 27
    Wong: 26

    Dustin Ackley home runs
    Churchill: 14
    Crawford: 15
    Carson: 13
    Wong: 12

    Team runs scored
    Churchill: 637
    Crawford: 612

    Team home runs
    Churchill: 178
    Crawford: 165
    Carson: 171
    Wong: 170

    Team best OBP: Player | OBP
    Churchill: Ackley | .364
    Crawford: Ackley | .372
    Carson:...

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    The M's by position: Outfielders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-27
    We's summarized the depth charts today -- first with Pitchers and Catchers and then Infielders. Now let's take a glance at the outfield situation.

    Center Field
    When Franklin Gutierrez went down with a pectoral injury, center field again became a concern. Michael Saunders can manage defensively, but can he hit? At all? He's hit in the minors and he had a good spring. He also had a good spring a year ago and was one of the worst bats on the roster in 2011, so he's still got a lot to prove, but it's his job to lose as the season gets under way.

    A respectable line for Saunders for the month of April might be somewhere around .250/.310/.375 with some consistency, though he's still capable of more. If he holds down a league-average line -- which is about .265/.320/.390 -- it's a big deal and Saunders may keep a roster spot for the season.

    Gutierrez is reportedly ahead of schedule, but for me, that's a total crock. Sure, he doesn't feel any pain and can swing a bat, but the pectoral muscle, like the hamstring and groin, is an area that requires more than a month to properly and fully heal and I don't expect Gutierrez back in the big leagues until after the first week of May at the soonest. Saunders should get in about 30 starts.

    Casper Wells is also...

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    The M's by position: Infielders

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-03-27
    When Mariners camp opened, we had a pretty good idea of what the infield would look like. A Smoak-Ackley-Figgins-Ryan quartet of scoopers seemed likely for opening day with a few question marks remaining for the utility roles.

    There had been some talk, though, that Chone Figgins could return to the super-utility role that he exceled at in Anaheim. When Carlos Guillen retired and Franklin Gutierrez got hurt in the early goings, that talk became reality as we started seeing Figgins' name next to numbers such as 7, 8 and even 6 on the lineup card.

    While Figgins is still likely to be the third baseman on opening day, room was created on the roster for both Kyle Seager and Munenori Kawasaki. Where they had probably been battling for a utility role before, they're now both likely to be on the roster come Wednesday against the Athletics in Tokyo.

    First Base
    Justin Smoak is firmly entrenched as the starter. There's simply no other option in the organization with the upside Smoak still possesses. After a tumultuous 2011 season that saw injuries on the field and personal devastation off it, Smoak could be poised to take a big step forward at age 25.

    Plenty of question marks remain in both the offensive and defensive aspects of Smoak's game. Advanced defensive metrics, being what they are, tell us he could be average with the glove, perhaps a bit below average. We also know, however, that these metrics require a larger sample than what we have in or...

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    The M's by position: P's & C's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-27
    The Seattle Mariners announced their provisional roster late Monday -- it contains 28 names, three of which are not eligible to participate in the opening two games in Tokyo. Those three are all pitchers; right-handers Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi and Hisashi Iwakuma, the latter two whom pitched in the exhibition games versus Yomiuri and Hanshin Sunday and Monday.

    The rest of the roster can be seen here and if you are curious about how they get down to 25 once they return from Japan, it's probably by sending down Alex Liddi and two pitchers -- either Charlie Furbush or Lucas Luetge (pronounced "lit-key") and either Steve Delabar or Erasmo Ramirez (pictured above). At least those are my best projections. Any injuries could alter the dynamics, however.

    Yes, Ramirez is on the roster and in Tokyo, after having his contract officially purchased Monday, and the same goes for Millwood and infielder Munenori Kawasaki.

    It's the first time I can remember thinking the club chose the right 25 players with few, yet reasonable, exceptions.
    Tuesday here we'll just go over the Mariners roster unit by unit. I'll handle the pitchers and catchers, Alex Carson will discuss the infielders and Adam H. Wo...

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    Scouting the M's Rivals: Texas Rangers

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-03-26
    If there is any one model after which the Seattle Mariners are shaping their front office decisions, it's probably the Texas Rangers. You can't argue against the work of GM Jon Daniels. Two consecutive World Series appearances and a farm system bulging at the seams with talent is exactly what the M's wants to accomplish, in theory.

    That being said, Texas is in a great position to continue their success. Their biggest move this offseason was the Yu Darvish signing, and even though they didn't pull off too many trades, the Rangers already had a great roster to begin with. Jon Daniels has reaped the fruits of his labor, and now the Texas machine is set in motion.

    Key Additions
    If spring training is any indication of future success, which we all know it necessarily isn't, Yu Darvish looks to continue his success in the NPB here stateside. He hasn't been completely dominant, but he's impressed enough that most people around the club think he's going to be big time. Most impressive is the confidence he shows on the mound.

    Too bad spring training stats don't yield predictive value. If they did, I would point and laugh at Texas, "ha, Full Story - Comments (4)
    Scouting the M's Rivals: L.A. Angels

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-03-25
    In the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, we're looking at a team that had one of the biggest winters of any team in baseball.

    The Angels' plans for success start with the mega-signing of first baseman Albert Pujols, who left the St. Louis Cardinals after an impressive 11-year run. Pujols hit the ground running with a rookie of the year campaign in 2001 that whet the appetite of the baseball world and only got better. After two World Series titles, a trio of National League MVP honors and a truck load of other awards, Pujols has moved on and joined an AL West rival.

    Couple that with the signing of former Texas Rangers starter C.J. Wilson and it shows Angels owner Arte Moreno was determined not to suffer another embarrassing offseason like last year's, where desperation seemingly led to trading for Vernon Wells and his cumbersome contract.

    Let's take a look at all the turnover to the Angels organization via free-agency and trade:

    Additions
    1B Albert Pujols, LHP C.J. Wilson, LHP Brad Mills, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, C Chris Ianetta, RHP Jason Isringhausen, IF Jorge Cantu, OF Ryan Langerhans

    The Angels are clearly all-in for 2012. If the Pujols and Wilson signings weren't enough indication, adding veterans like Latroy Hawkins and Chris Iannetta add t...

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    Viewing Party: Opening Morning

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-24
    Yes, we're crazy.

    The Seattle Mariners open the 2012 season in Tokyo, Japan, meaning first pitch in the Emerald City is 3:10 AM. Not only will we be awake, we'll be watching, and you're invited to join us.

    Prospect Insider and Epic Seats invites you to come down to Epic Seats on First Avenue -- about 1000 feet from Safeco Field -- and hang out with us while we watch Felix Hernandez and the Mariners take on the Oakland Athletics.

    There will be pizza and other snacks, as well as soda. [If you bring your own beer, that is fair game, too. At futire events, we may have the option for beer on tap, but since this is an event in the wee hours ...]

    The best part is that this inaugural Prospect Insider-Epic Seats collaborative event is FREE and open to the first 25 email requests.

    Once you receive your email confirmation, make your plans to blow off work next Wednesday and open the 2012 M's season in style.

    What Epic Seats brings to the table
    A comfortable atmosphere for a group of such a size (If you are a Seattle-area native, you'll love the floor of this place!) and the game will be shown on multiple big-screen TVs.

    Epic Seats is a locally-owned and operated "secondary ticket market" sel...

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    Scouting the M's Rivals: A's

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-03-23
    From 2000 to 2006, few teams in baseball were better than the Oakland Athletics. The A's won 90 more games in six of seven years, and their organizational structure was the envy of every small market club in baseball. The last five years, however, have been the picture of mediocrity. Oakland hasn't had a winning season in over half a decade, and due to budget constraints and some questionable decisions have put Oakland firmly on the rebuilding side.

    The 2011 season epitomized the issues the Athletics have endured since the Moneyball glory days as only the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins had lower OPS' or scored fewer runs in the American League. The pitching was once again solid last year -- the third best ERA of any club in the American League -- but it wasn't enough to overcome the anemic production from the lineup. The club finished 74-88, good for third in the division for the third time in five seasons.

    Additions/Subtractions
    Coming in: OF Yoenis Cespedes, OF Seth Smith, RHP Bartolo Colon, OF Josh Reddick, OF Jonny Gomes, OF Manny Ramirez, RHP Jarrod Parker

    Heading out: RHP Trevor Cahill, LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Andrew Bailey, OF David DeJesus, RHP Guillermo Moscoso, RHP Josh Outman, DH Hideki Matsui

    Overview
    Holy...

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    Holland's contract extension

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-03-21
    The Texas Rangers inked what might be the steal of the offseason, extending Derek Holland's contract through the 2016 season with club options for 2017 and 2018. The deal, initially worth $28.5 million over five years, buys out at least his first year of free agent eligibility. Holland may not be a household name yet, but he is quickly becoming a key piece to the Rangers' rotation.

    While the contract negotiations with Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli have reached a standstill, Holland's deal gives the Rangers flexibility in their already young starting rotation and gives Texas one less contract to worry about. The club won't have to concern themselves with rising rates through his arbitration eligible years, and if Holland can perform at the level he did this past year, there's no reason that this deal won't be considered a win. Holland will complement the likes of Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis in the starting rotation, and if each of the players lives up to their potential, Texas might have one of the better rotations in the American League.

    The contract has an Average Annual Value of $5.7 million, so Holland merely has to produce at about a 1 Win-Above-Replacement level per season during the length of the initial contract. Using the idea that 1 WAR is worth about $5 million in an open market, Holland's value is definitely trending upwards. If last season...

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    Roster update

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-21
    The M's announced Wednesday morning that the starting rotation will consist of Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Kevin Millwood and Blake Beavan. The one change from my latest rotation projection is Noesi in for Hisashi Iwakuma, who will start a March 26 exhibition in Tokyo and then be available out of the bullpen to start the season.

    Noesi will start the March 25 exhibition in Japan.

    Iwakuma's presence in the bullpen means one less job for the pure relief core. Among those that could be out include Charlie Furbush, Rule 5'er Lucas Luetge, and perhaps even Chance Ruffin, who has not been sharp this month.

    It would not be a shock if two of the above were sent to Tacoma and Erasmo Ramirez made the roster in a relief role, too.

    It would be a shame if Shawn Kelley did not make the roster. While he's yielded 13 hits in 11 2/3 innings, he's walked just one and whiffed nine batters. He's sat 88-92 with his fastball -- more 90-91s the past few outings, and is throwing his 81-84 mph slider for called strikes as well as inducing a few sings and misses. He's not all the way back to where he was prior to the surgery, but he's close, and could get there during the first half of the season.

    Luetge has pitched well enough to win a spot, too, and he's been 89-92 with a quality slider and a useful changeup. Luetge may not simply be on the Opening Day roster but is a potential mainstay if he can manage versus right-handed batters.

    The M's li...

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    Draft Weekly: March 18, 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-18
    Starting, well, right now, and every weekend hereafter through draft day -- June 4 -- I'll share thoughts and buzz around the draft scene of the class of 2012. I'll see players, swap notes with scouts and those that appear relevant I will pass along.

    My pre-season Top 100 can be found here, and my first Mock Draft can be found here. The draft order can be found here.

    Let's get to it.

    First-round buzz
    The hot name at the top of the draft is San Francisco right-hander Kyle Zimmer, who was at it again Friday night with a complete-game shutout. Zimmer was not at his best -- he walked four, which is four times as many as he'd walked in his previous three outings, but he also fanned 11 and allowed just three hits.

    He's got a few mechanical issues scouts don’t love, but word is they are all easily fixable. If he can add some movement to the fastball -- it's fairly straight, though he does throw downhill to an extent -- there may be a chance he becomes a No. 1 starter.

    Zimmer sits right there wi...

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    Spring Training Buzz: Michael Saunders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-16
    Spring Training Video: Cavan Cohoes, SS

    The Seattle Mariners entered Cactus League play Friday at 10-4, having scored more runs than any team training in Arizona and ranking second in runs scored per game at seven even. All of that means little, since Oakland is tops at more than seven per game and have a half-game lead on the M's for the best overall record.

    It's just spring training and the statistics -- and win-loss record -- are close to meaningless.

    When those numbers are divided by the process, however, maybe we can take something from what's going on in Peoria.

    Gutierrez injury a blessing in disguise?
    The buzz in Mariners' camp right now is Michael Saunders. I've been bullish on Saunders since 2004 after seeing him in Everett. He's a good athlete with above-average speed, an above-average arm, playable range in center field and good bat speed on a swing that produces good loft and leverage.

    Saunders has hit well in the minors at every step, and done so with power. His time in the big leagues can be described as disappointing, to say the least. He's just 25, however, and has flashed his power, glove and foot speed. He ente...

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    Spring Training Video: Cavan Cohoes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-16
    Top 100 MLB Draft Prospects | Mock Draft 1.0

    The M's drafted shortstop Cavan Cohoes in the 9th round last June out of Patch School in Germany. I wrote when he signed in August that "Cohoes is a good athlete, yet raw and unchallenged and may be a long-term project, but his swing mechanics are sound and he's already got some present strength."

    Prospect Insider's Adam H. Wong was on location in Peoria, Arizona to see Cohoes take some batting practice. Cohoes is likely stay behind when camps break and work toward making the Peoria roster to get his career started.

    ...

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    Spring Training Video: Taijuan Walker

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-13
    Prospect Insider's Adam H. Wong spent the past several days in Peoria and caught Taijuan Walker during a bullpen session.

    Wong notes that "the velocity comes so easy," and in the video you can see the athletic delivery.

    One thing any eye can see is how consistent his release point and arm slot are. For a 19-year-old, the kid has polish, too.



    Wong also got a look at 19-year-old right-hander Rigoberto Garcia from the Dominican Republic. Garcia has a fastball, slider and changeup and is a projectable 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds.

    From Wong: "He's still got a ways to go, but he has the physical tools to succeed in the bigs. He's got a lot of moving parts, so that stiff landing leg in his delivery will be something he'll have to fix, especially if he wants to start long term. He throws a circle change, and although he needs to work on consistent arm speed, he got everyone that was around during the live BP session clamoring over the pitch."

    ...

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    Projecting the 25-man Roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-10
    Top 100 MLB Draft Prospects | Mock Draft 1.0

    The Seattle Mariners are nine games into the Cactus League schedule, but they have just over two weeks until the roster has to be finalized for the trip to Tokyo for the first game of the season versus the Oakland Athletics.

    Over those next few weeks, jobs will be won and lost, depth will be determined and there may even be a trade or two. Let's take a look at how things may turn out down the line.

    Caveats: This is based on performance, not actual statistics -- yes, there is a difference -- as well as player development, guaranteed contracts, injuries and team needs. The relationship factor -- such as the one between Eric Wedge and Kevin Millwood -- is not taken into consideration, since the Mariners shouldn't consider it, either. The best players should win jobs using the criterion above. It's understandable for the club to allow younger players baste a bit in the minors to start the season, but it's not OK to waste innings or at-bats on veterans in a scenario where a more worthy player is available and not in danger of any player development issues, including work load and service time concerns.

    Also, remember that we're still more than two weeks away from final decisions and a lot can happen.

    • Brandon Maurer

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    What Giolito injury means

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-07
    The 2012 draft class was shallow and mediocre with which to begin, and now right-hander Lucas Giolito may miss the rest of the season with what is being called a UCL sprain in his right elbow. The UCL -- ulnar collateral ligament -- is the one replaced during Tommy Surgery when a tear is present. Giolito is reportedly expected to miss 6-10 weeks, but there is good chance there is more to this than a sprain.

    As is, Giolito's draft stock took a hit with such news, and it could hinder his status in the Top 5 enough to reward UCLA, where Giolito has committed to college. Whether or not a sprained UCL knocks Giolito out for the entire season or he comes back near the end of the schedule -- and at the early edge of the 6-10 week prognosis -- remains to be seen, but there's no chance he'l be the No. 1 talent on the board come draft day -- not with such an injury so fresh.

    If this develops into a situation where a tear is found and replacement surgery is necessary, Giolito will likely fall at least as far, or farther, than Anthony Ranaudo did two years ago. Ranaudo did not have surgery, and ended going in the compensation round to the Boston Red Sox. The difference is, Ranaudo pitched down the stretch for LSU. Giolito isn't likely to be able to do that.

    What this does to the Top 5 is interesting, albeit with negativ...

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    AL West roster movement 2

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-03-06
    Get the 2012 Prospect Insider Handbook Here

    It's probably fair to say that since we're seeing baseball games -- meaningless or not -- that we can declare the offseason is complete. It was one of the crazier winters I can remember in baseball, and I think it's also safe to deem that the recession hasn't been too heavy a burden to, say, the Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers.

    The American League West was a significant culprit in the wackiness of the winter, as every team but Seattle brought home a major free-agent acquisition, assuming you count Yoenis Cespedes and Yu Darvish, and we do. That's not to say that the Mariners were quiet, as they made what is arguably the biggest trade of the entire offseason.

    Here's a look at what the four teams in the division have done, using the 2011 Wins Above Replacement totals to give us an idea of the improvements, or lack thereof. Keep in mind that non-consequential free-agents -- players with less than 50 at-bats or innings pitched -- have not been added to the list, with Joe Nathan, Darvish and Cespedes being exceptions to said rule. And yes, I know that this isn't a perfect exercise, but it does offer...

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    Sizing up the future of the AL West

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-04
    Get the 2012 Prospect Insider Handbook Here

    Last month ESPN ran a set of rankings depicting the future power rankings of each of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball. The methodology and criterion, explained here, included the makeup of their current 25-man roster, each club's farm system, the ownership and financial situations, and the management of each organization. Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney graded each of the 30 teams in those categories, resulting in a score. The Texas Rangers were No. 1 overall with a rating of 91.1. The Seattle Mariners ranked No. 18 with a 45.7.

    That No. 18 ranking comes on the heels of Law ranking the Mariners' crop of prospects No. 11 in baseball. I understand the methodology, and I certainly don't believe the Mariners should be ranked i...

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    Top 10 Most Valuable Mariners

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-03-02
    The Seattle Mariners may be on their way to good times. A good young nucleus, a strong farm system and a sound disciplined process on the field and in scouting and player development are the foundation for the franchise's attempts to rise to the top in American League West.

    They had to come a long way simply to get where they are.

    Here are those responsible for all of that, as we present the Bob Engle Top 10 Most Valuable Seattle Mariners. Engle would win this every year, so to let others in on the fun... yeah.

    Note: Of course, little of what the club has been able to do to get where they are would have been possible had the ownership not financially supported the efforts, and exhibited patience for the front office.

    Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong were ultimately responsible for hiring the GM, who hired the scouts and the field manager, and here we are. The criterion for the following Top 10 is restricted to baseball operations, on or off the field.

    No. 1 | Tom McNamara | Director of Amateur Scouting
    While the club has not yet won, they will, and it will be largely due to the work done by McNamara and his scouting staff. The work done in the draft has been tremendous. They haven't missed on an early pick, and have d...

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    Gutierrez replacement options

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-29
    The MLB's top tools

    Bad news, Mariners fans. Franklin Gutierrez will be out for at least four weeks with a torn pectoral muscle. Hopes of a bounce back season have to be tempered. There was a lot of excitement and buzz at the thought of a healthy, productive Guti. All of the progress reported in the off season was positive, and it's too bad that he has to be set back before the beginning of a season for the second consecutive year.

    In a four week period, Gutierrez will at least miss the majority of spring training games. Best case scenario is that he has an outside shot to make the regular season roster and play in Japan. Realistically, however, Gutierrez's muscle would heal in that projected four week period, and then he would have to resume baseball activities, much like last season. He’ll have to make up all of that time he would’ve spent in Peoria, so we’re probably talking five or six weeks before his return.

    Worst case: he could end up with the big club in early May. It's hard to predict a timetable of return with an injury like this. Geoff Baker reports that Gutierrez will be in a sling for almost a week. If the muscle doesn't heal well and things don't go according to plan, Gutierrez will basically repeat the beginning of the 2011 season. The good thing is that the club reports Gutierrez won't need surgery. All things considered, this is a huge setback for Seattle. The Mariners lose th...

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    MLB's Top Tools

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-29
    In an interesting polling of big league scouts -- an exercise that started out as a cross checking of mine and Chris Crawford's best assessment -- I believe we'll learn a few things from the results below.

    All I wanted to do was make sure we weren't overlooking anything significant in putting tools grades on the top bat and top pitcher on the other 29 clubs in Major League Baseball, but the responses forced me to make adjustments I did not expect.

    This is just a fun snapshot of some of the best players in baseball. The grades are a combination of actual production and the raw physical capabilities of the players in question. It's not based solely on performance, statistics or crude abilities.


    Arizona Diamondbacks

    Bat: Justin Upton
    Tool | Grade
    Hitting, On-Base Skills | 55+
    Hitting for Power | 60
    Speed/Baserunning | 60
    Defensive Range | 55
    Throwing Arm | 60

    Arm: Ian Kennedy
    Tool | Grade
    Fastball | 50+
    Curveball | 55
    Slider | 50
    Changeup | 45
    Control/Command |...

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    ZiPS says M's terrible again

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-02-28
    Baseball Think Factory last week rolled out the first general release of the ZiPS projections they do every year. I ran through the Seattle Mariners projected opening day lineup and potential bench to see how the boys are projected to do this season. Keep in mind, these projections are done by thousands of simulations on a computer.

    The computer software doesn't know that Ichiro has a new stance. It doesn't know how much Eric Wedge will tinker with platoons. It doesn't know how long or short Chone Figgins' leash is, it doesn't know how much an aging player will decline or how much a young player will develop ... it doesn't know a lot.

    It's still interesting enough to me to compile the list below and share. I just grabbed slash lines, wOBA, and a couple popular counting stats.

    The M's scored 556 runs a year ago and their best hitter was probably a young bat, rather than a veteran, so take these as such.





    ZiPS Calls the Mariners terrible again
    PlayerAVGOBP
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    Scouting the 40-man roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-27
    Among the members of the Seattle Mariners' 40-man roster are several prospects. About two-thirds of the players on it, however, are those that no longer possess rookie status or are established major-league players. They still have tools, however, and they still are scouted regularly.

    Let's take a look at how the M's major leaguers grade out as if they were amateurs. Analysis by Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford, and crosschecked with three Major League scouts.

    Note: You will occasionally see a plus sign (+) next to a grade below, which means there is a chance for more in that area but other aspects of that player's game will have to improve to allow it. It could be due to injuries, it could be due to further development needed -- this occurs mostly with the young players. For a pitcher it could be improved mechanics or a role change.

    Ichiro Suzuki, RF
    Tool |     Grade
    Hitting, On-Base Skills | 55
    Hitting for Power | 40
    Speed/Baserunning | 60
    Defensive Range | 55
    Throwing Arm | 60

    Franklin Gutierrez, CF
    Tool |     Grade
    Hitting, On-Base Skills | 45
    Hitting for Power | 50
    Speed/Baserunning | 50
    Defensive Range | 60
    Throwing Arm | 55

    Kyle Seager, UT
    Tool |     Grade
    Hitting, On-...

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    More Rankings: Top 50 Players, Org

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-25
    The Seattle Mariners are banking their future in the big leagues on what they currently have in their minor league system, combined with what youth they have in the big leagues. Because of that, it's important where the club ranks among the rest of the division and the rest of the league when it comes to young talent.

    Here's how Jason A. Churchill and Chris Crawford see it.

    To check out the Top 50 prospects in MLB -- which includes four Mariners -- click here.

    The Organizational Rankings can be found here.

    We released the Top 25 Mariners prospects yesterday.

    The Prospect Insider Handbook was released Thursday night.

    Sunday night we will post the American League West Under 25 Rankings and a few others things the staff has cooked up for the weekend....

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    M's Top 25 Prospects

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-24
    The 2012 Prospect Insider Handbook was released Thursday night. If you don't have a copy yet, get one here.

    Below is the Top 25 -- if you want the scouting reports, tools grades and future projections, they are in the book!

    We'll chat about prospects, anything in the handbook, the 2012 Draft and anything else that comes to mind at 7PM tonight.

    To participate in the chat, click here.

    For the Top 25, click Full Story below.

    Seattle Mariners Top 25
    No.Player, Pos.
    1Jesus Montero, C/DH
    2Taijuan Walker, RHP
    3Danny Hultzen, LHP
    ...

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    Prospect Insider Handbook 2012

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-23
    The 2012 Prospect Insider Handbook is here!

    Subscribers can access the handbook for FREE by clicking here.

    Those who pre-purchased the handbook will be emailed their copy.

    To purchase the handbook, click below and one will be emailed to you:

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    Ichiro and the rest of the lineup

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-02-21
    There's been a lot of speculation surrounding a report that Chone Figgins has been promised lots of playing time and possibly being handed the leadoff spot in the order. This sparked a blogosphere-wide discussion about sunk costs that we'll avoid here. For me, my reaction was to wonder where Wedge may bat Ichiro.

    The team didn't allow me to wonder for long. In a move that will surprise some but not surprise others, Eric Wedge has announced today that Ichiro will bat third in his 2012 lineup.

    Larry Stone noticed a wider stance from Ichiro. Stone then learned, from Ichiro, that the new stance was worked on all winter and will be used going forward.

    My initial reaction to Wedge making this announcement so early in camp was a slight eyebrow raise. However, after further thought, it makes sense. Ichiro being what we've come to know is probably more comfortable getting something like this out of the way and he's obviously known the move was coming for some time. He can now focus on whatever adjustments he and his coaches believe need to be made without answering questions from the media all spring. Or,
    ignoring questions from the media all spring, if you prefer.

    What tweaks Ichiro is making to his game will be interesting to follow throughout camp. I don't think the he-could-hit-a-homer-anytime-he-wants...

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    2012 Draft Preview

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-18
    The 2012 First-Year Players Draft takes place June 4-6, which is less than five months away. The 2012 draft order can be seen here.

    The class is again a below-average crop, as was last year's, but the strength of the class of '12 lies in the prep kids, making it a much more risky venture than we've seen in several years.

    There will still be impact players, however, and the interest wanders beyond that to how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will impact the draft.

    Each club has a set pool from which to pay bonuses and steep penalties will incur should they exceed those limits.

    Let's preview the talent:

    College Pitching
    Last year's college pitching crop was outstanding; thirteen collegiate arms went in the first 60 picks, including the first three selections.

    This year's class doesn't have the depth of the 2011 class but there are still quality arms that should go high once June rolls around.

    The most talked about name –- for good reason –- is Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander has a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can go as high as 97 with run. His slider has good tilt when he stays on...

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    Seager's new swing

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-17
    Third base has been an issue for the Seattle Mariners since many of us were a lot younger, let's just put it that way. It's been a long time since there was an answer at the hot corner. The Mariners tried Chone Figgins and he hasn't worked out -- he may be slated for trade in March or a utility role -- and Kyle Seager spent a decent portion of the second half in 2011 as the starter.

    Even Figgins, however, wasn't ever going to bring much pop and run production to the table. At his best, he's a table setter, not a bus boy. Seager's game doesn't fit the bill, either, but that isn't stopping him from trying.

    Seager, writes Larry LaRue of the News Tribune today, has changed his swing a little bit to help him hit for more power.

    Seager got stronger over the offseason, but he says that is just in order to stay strong all season. The swing adjustment is a "tuck" of his front shoulder that allows him to hit the ball where it's pitched more. In layman's terms, this helps Seager put a better, more powerful swing on the ball because his shift is a little more balanced.

    It's pretty slight, and nobody, not even Seager himself, expects him to hit 25-30 homers a year. He's still a line-drive hitter, but we may see a few more doubles out of this change.

    There is always risk in adjustments like this, however, including a sacrificing of contact or...

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    The center field situation

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-15
    The Seattle Mariners are set up to have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball come 2013 or 2014. Maintaining one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, however, implies that they have one of the best defenses in the game as well. Someone has to protect the pitchers from getting BABIP'd! More importantly, the middle-infield positions carry the burden of maintaining a plus defensive core, and if Seattle truly wants to build around pitching and defense, they better have strong up-the-middle gloves.

    Brendan Ryan's contract lasts through the end of this season, and his final year of arbitration eligibility is 2013. He's proven that his glove's worth more than his bat. Using FanGraphs' version of wins-above-replacement, Ryan was worth 2.6 WAR in 2011. Without even looking at the defensive metric they use, we can tell his value was tied up in his defense, as he put up a .248/.313/.326 slash line. We can look at Dustin Ackley, and even with his abbreviated season, was worth 2.7 WAR in 2011. Accompanied with a .273/.348/.417 line, Ackley did nothing but impress at the plate. Dustin had about 120 less plate appearances than Brendan, but there's no doubt that Dustin's plate discipline is...

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    Spring is here

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-11
    Pitchers and catchers! I swear these are the only three words popping up on my Twitter timeline, but those are three words that I'm willing to get bombarded with. It means Felix Hernandez and Miguel Olivo. It means Taijaun Walker and Jesus Montero. It means that the baseball season inches closer.

    Spring is here...
    For the Mariners fan, that is. Spring doesn't officially start until March 20, a good three weeks into the spring training season, but with Seattle Mariners pitchers and catchers reporting, Spring couldn't be any closer. And with the season creeping slowly closer to beginning, I begin to remember some reasons why I love baseball.

    I began to think about what it's like at Safeco, and the serenity that pervades the stadium. Sure, great times with friends, chanting "K" in the King's Court and the illusive home run raise the proverbial decibel meter. But maybe my definition of "serenity" is different from the norm.

    The rumble of the ballpark is a calm overcast. Each person is there for the same reason: baseball. Whether it's the hardcore fan, scoring the game as they go along, or the casual fan, enjoying Dippin' Dots on a warm Spring day. Baseball is the reason they all gather.

    Maybe it's the peaks and...

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    Countdown to Peoria: one day

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-02-10
    Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. This off-season felt shorter than those in the past. Perhaps it's because, as my grandma used to say, time moves quicker as you get older.

    This is it, folks. It's time to see actual stuff on baseball fields that we can talk about, instead of just stuff that's played out in our minds and spreadsheets.

    Baseball is back!

    Prospect Insider Handbook 2012
    The 2012 Prospect Insider Handbook is slated for release next week. It's full of scouting reports, rankings and features and will be available FREE to all subscribers in the form of a digital PDF.

    For FREE on the Web site, the Top 25 prospects will be revealed, though to get rankings 26-50 and the scouting reports you must be a subscriber and acquire the digital handbook. Also included in the FREE Web site prospect coverage:

  • Tools grades for every non-prospect or unranked prospect on the 40-man roster as of February, which includes the established big-league players (NEW!)

  • Tools grades for the best bat and best arm on each of the other 29 clubs (NEW!)

  • The Top 10 most valuable members of the Seattle Mariners organization

  • 2012 Draft Preview


    • Other handbook-only features will i...

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    Countdown to Peoria: two days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-02-09
    Just 48 hours until pitchers and catchers. Coincidentally, 48 hours is my second favorite Eddie Murphy movie, right behind Trading Places. But I digress.

    The set-up man
    Brandon League is going to be the closer to start the year -- assuming he's still on the roster -- but if the Mariners chose to go with a true eighth-inning role, there are a few candidates on the club.

    The early favorite is likely Tom Wilhemlsen. He's got the best stuff of any reliever on the roster -- and after a rocky start -- he was very good to end the year. The right-hander was just as effective against left-handed batters last year, so there's no real worry about a split should they chose to go this way.

    Should Wilhelmsen struggle in the Cactus League, the M's do have other options. Hong-Chi Kuo was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2010, and has proven to be able to get right-handed hitters out when healthy. George Sherrill would be the experienced option, but at this point is probably best-suited as the situation-lefty.

    My personal hope is that the Mariners don't assign roles, but that's probably an unreasonable ask at this point. The bullpen looks to be the strength of the 2012 club -- which might bum some of you out -- but how the...

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    Countdown to Peoria: three days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-08
    Churchill's look at future free-agents and building the Mariners

    The equivalent of a three game series stands between you and baseball. That's about $10 of bleacher seats per game, three days of ROOT Sports with work in between each one, or maybe even a weekend off of work before the week starts again. Baseball.

    The Mariners as they stand
    Jason projects what the bullpen will look like when they arrive in Tokyo this year here.

    The addition of Hong-Chin Kuo and Shawn Camp with major league deals presumably lock up bullpen positions, but as Jason puts it, pitchers like Steve Delabar and Chance Ruffin stand to challenge that. The franchise wants to encourage competition, and their presence will only bolster it.

    Chris examines the likes of Darren Ford and Michael Saunders as the fifth outfielder. Although Saunders has great routes and is a great defensive player, his offense has become more than a liability. Saunders is the Allstate Mayhem Full Story - Comments (2)
    Future free agents and building the M's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-07
    Looking out at the large landscape of Major League Baseball the Seattle Mariners did not make an impact in free agency this offseason. The prizes of the market, most notably first baseman Prince Fielder, signed with American League contenders, including AL West favorites in Texas and Anaheim.

    The Mariners, as I wrote after the Detroit Tigers landed Fielder, will stay the course. That course is player development, drafting, making impact trades and aggressively pursuing the right free agents.

    I noted in the piece linked above that the club is on the right track, the same path taken to prominence by the Texas Rangers, the two-time defending American League Champions, and the one Alex Anthopoulos is driving on in Toronto.

    At some point, however, GM Jack Zduriencik and his staff will likely have to land a pricey free agent or two if they want to win the World Series and compete at such a level for a long period of time.

    It's...

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    Countdown to Peoria: four days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-02-07
    This is getting ridiculous. Four days until pitchers and catchers? I mean, seriously, this is nuts. I'm more stoked for mediocrity than ever before!

    M's Pad the Pen
    Early in the day on Monday, there were reports that teams interested in left-handed free-agent reliever Hong-Chih Kuo were being told to look elsewhere for bullpen help as he was expected to agree with the Seattle Mariners. As the day unfolded, we learned that Kuo and the M's agreed to a one-year deal.

    Kuo is a really interesting pick up. There aren't many players who had the value drop from 2010 to 2011 that he did. Arm injuries, surgeries, velocity loss and an anxiety disorder have put the breaks on a pretty good reliever. It's really anyone's guess which Kuo shows up in four days, but if it's the one that pops the mitt in the mid-90's and induces some whiffs and a bunch of ground balls, this stands to be a really nice sign.

    GM Jack Zduriencik wasn't done. Veteran right-handed reliever Shawn Camp was also signed to a major-league deal in the afternoon. Dave Cameron says it best, in that Camp could be a useful pen arm if his appearances against left-handed bats are limited. It w...

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    Countdown to Peoria: five days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-02-06
    Unless you're Chubs Peterson, you can count the number of days til pitchers and catchers report on one hand. Well, unless your Peterson or Antonio Alfonseca, because if you're him, you could have done that yesterday.

    Who would be the fifth outfielder? 
    I say would, not will, because it's not guaranteed that the Mariners carry five outfielders. Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Casper Wells are locks to make the roster, and Mike Carp -- also a lock -- will probably play left-field vs right-handed pitchers. But if the team choses to carry one more, there are a few different candidates.

    Trayvon Robinson was absolutely terrible -- outside of one fantastic catch in Anaheim -- in his big league debut, but there is talent there, and a big spring training could help him make the ball club (I could make the argument that if Robinson shines in Peoria that he might be the starting left-fielder on opening day, but I digress). I think the preferred route would be to get him more seasoning in Tacoma, but he's an option.

    Darren Ford was brought in on a minor-league deal, and is a somewhat-intriguing player. He has well-above average speed, can play center-field, and has put up decent numbers -- at times -- in the Giants minor-league system. He...

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    Countdown to Peoria: six days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-05
    144 hours stand between you and baseball.

    Catcher battle
    Between Miguel Olivo, John Jaso and Jesus Montero, the catcher position is pretty much spoken for. It stands to reason that Olivo and Jaso will play in a true platoon situation, while Montero could fill in on Sundays or days that Smoak is the DH.

    Olivo's problems behind the plate are well documented, but it's hard to marginalize the fact that he held together a pretty green pitching staff. He put up a bad OPS+ of 79, and was the fourth worst defensive catcher last year with 11 passed balls. His work ethic and attitude fit the mold of the clubhouse veteran, and there's no doubt that his presence will influence youngsters.

    John Jaso seems be the antithesis of Olivo's catching ability. His OPS+ of 85 in 2011 was slightly better than Olivo's, but he only allowed four passed balls. He's still young, and it's possible he could be a part of the Mariners' future, at least in the short term. He first becomes arbitration eligible in 2013, and could be a free agent in 2016.

    Montero's biggest weakness behind the plate is the time between the pop up behind the plate. He has great arm, he just needs to shorten the time between the crouch and the throw. Most think that he won't...

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    Countdown to Peoria: seven days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-04
    Seven days. The horror film "The Ring" was released in 2002. Also in 2002, the Seattle Mariners won 93 games and missed the postseason. Barry Zito won the American League Cy Young Award. Vladimir Guerrero played for the Montreal Expos. Jarrod Washburn had an ERA- of 71 while playing for the Anaheim Angels, the 2002 World Series Champions. Seven Days.

    The first base battle?
    At the time of this writing, Justin Smoak is set to be the Mariners' everyday first baseman. "At the time of this writing" sounds so ominous. I swear I just jinxed something. Barring injury, Smoak is looking to have a sort of bounce back year. 2012 will definitely be a year for Smoak to show to the front office brass what he's made of, and earn himself a permanent job at first base.

    Mike Carp figures to get into the mix, playing first base the days that Smoak either has off or is the DH.

    Depending on how Jesus Montero fares behind the plate, he might make some appearances at first base as well, as long as they don't take away at bats from Smoak. Seattle will do everything they can to make sure both Smoak and Montero the most plate appearances as possible, and if they had to take at bats away from someone, it would be Carp.

    On th...

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    Countdown to Peoria: eight days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-02-03

    Eight days. Eight days! Pitchers and catchers report in eight days, guys.

    Jackson and Kotchman Sign
    A couple more free agent names left the market Thursday, as the Washington Nationals signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year deal valued in the $9 million to $12 million range and the Indians inked Casey Kotchman to a one-year $3 million pact.

    Some Mariners fans had ideas of Seattle inking Jackson to a bargain deal. In the end, though, it proved true that Jackson would prefer to go to a team with contention potential if all he could get was a short-term contract.

    For Kotchman, he had a few options and chose a Cleveland team that will allow him to compete with the disappointing Matt LaPorta for time at first base. If Kotchman's 2011 success at the plate carries over it can be combined with his defense to add a cheap boost for the Tribe.

    The Third Base Battle
    There aren't a ton of exciting position battles to watch this spring as the club is pretty much set everywhere. But third base could be the one spot to watch. Between Kyle Seager, Chone Figgins and newly acquired Carlos Guillen, there are a few ways the club could go.

    The biggest problem with...

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    Countdown to Peoria: nine days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-02-02
    Jason Churchill's top 15 young -power bats

    The back-up middle infield battle
    Second base and shortstop are both set as far as starters go, but one of the more interesting battles will be who wins the job to be their respected backups. I wouldn’t expect Ackley to get many days off, seeing as how he’s already the team’s best offensive player, but since Ryan is a subpar offensive player – putting it nicely – the utility infielder will see some playing time this year.

    The two early favorites are Louis Rodriguez and Munenori Kawasaki. Rodriguez played sparingly in 2011 and didn’t do much, although he has shown a propensity to walk here and there and won’t kill you with the glove. The Mariners non-tendered the switch-hitting infielder but resigned him a couple of days later to a minor-league deal, and you’d have to think he would report back to Tacoma should he not make the initial 25-man roster.

    Kawasaki comes over from Japan after spending five years in the Japanese Pacific League, where he hit for some high batting averages and impressive stolen base totals, but without much power and he didn’t walk much (career high of 47)....

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    MLB's top 15 young power hitters

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-01
    The game of baseball has changed drastically over the last 30 years -- more than once. It's gone from a pitching-dominated sport, to a highly offense-driven sport, and is now turning back in the other direction.

    What these most recent trends have shown is that there is a sore lack of power hitting in the game. Sure, there are the likes of Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista, and a number of solid power bats such as Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera. There just aren't nearly as many as there was during the previous era.

    In the 1990s, we saw three shortstops produce OPS tallies over .900 in Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez. Two of those -- Nomar and A-ROD -- went over 1.000 and slugged more than 30 homers multiple times.

    Catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza mashed their way to high MVP finishes, all-star games and enormous contracts.

    Times have changed.

    In 2000, 47 different players in Major League Baseball hit 30 home runs or more. A year later that total was at 41. In 2010, only 18 players reached that mark, and that jumped only top 24 in 2011.

    So, while there are still some good, young power hitters in the game, there are fewer from which to choose. The clu...

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    Guillen's role in Seattle

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-02-01
    The Seattle Mariners signed Carlos Guillen to a minor league deal, the team announced late Wednesday morning. The veteran, whos is now 36, returns to where his big-league career started after coming over from the Houston Astros in the deal that sent Randy Johnson to the National League almost 14 years ago.

    Guillen, a switch hitter, is much better from the left side, and he can still hit. He's had numerous injury issues the past handful of seasons, however, and shouldn't be asked to play everyday.

    He's played everywhere defensively but center field and catcher (and pitcher) but is probably best suited to be a designated hitter. That doesn't mean it can't make some sense to mix him in at third base on occasion.

    He's not guaranteed a roster spot but if he's healthy through March he's likely to make the club. His presence does not mean another trade has to be made before opening day, however.

    With Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez and a combo of Mike Carp and Casper Wells likely serving as the four outfielder setup and an infield of Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Brendan Ryan, the backup shortstop (it won't be Guillen) Chone Figgins, Kyle Seager and the three catchers, Guillen becomes the No. 14 bat on the 25-man, to go with 12 pitchers -- seven relievers and five starters.

    That could leave Seager as the backup shortstop, or back in Triple-A Tacoma.

    Guillen should really never face left-handed pitching, as the past several hundred plate appearance...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 10 days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-02-01
    Ten days stand between you and baseball. The length of daylight hours remains fairly constant at both solstices for about ten days. The more you know.

    Spring training is inching closer, and Prospect Insider is going to start outlining the various position battles that will be taking place. First up: starting pitching.

    The veterans
    Without question, Felix Hernandez is the ace of the Seattle Mariners. His slot as the No. 1 starter will go unchallenged, and potential fifth starters, perhaps Kevin Millwood or Blake Beavan, might get skipped every once in a while during the season to keep Hernandez on five days rest. The club did it a couple times last year, and all signs point to Seattle doing it again.

    Although not a No. 2, Jason Vargas gets penciled in that slot based on seniority. 2011 was the tale of two seasons for Vargas, as he posted a 3.88 ERA in the first half and a 4.66 in the second. But after he added the "Felix twist", it looks like he started to correct the ship. Vargas will only cost Seattle $4.85 million in 2012. He was worth five WAR over the past two seasons, so this is a bargain if you buy that one win is worth about $5 million in an open market.

    After Vargas, things get interesting.

    The mi...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 11 days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-31
    There are now only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report and the Prospect Insider coverage rolls on.

    FanFest Review
    I have to admit, I've always had something of an elitist's view of FanFest. It's for old ladies and little kids, I'd reason. There's nothing there for a grown man like myself.

    How incredibly wrong I was.

    The day started a little rocky. We entered the gates around noon, so we decided we'd stroll around the team store before the Taijuan Walker and James Paxton autograph session. I asked two different Safeco Field employees for information on the signings. Namely, would some sort of photo be provided? Both gave the same emphatic answer: You're on your own.

    After dropping $20 on a ball and case, followed by an hour in line, I was greeted at the table by Walker. In front of him? A stack of free photos. That was the end of the frustration, though. What followed was probably the best bang-for-your-buck $10 admission I've ever paid.

    While touring the M's clubhouse, Eric Wedge walked in. This wasn't a sanctioned visit or greeting session. But Wedge took the time to stop and talk with my pal Ryan and I for several minutes. I left with a totally different opinion of the man. You can sense his desire to win and,...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 12 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-30
    On the twelfth day of the countdown, Chris Crawford said to me:

    More FanFest stuff.
    Hopefully, you all had a chance to make it out to this years FanFest, and from everything I've read, it sounds like it was a rousing success. The Mariner PR department released a bunch of photos of the goings on over the two day festivity, and I think it's worth checking out. I know, this is more fan based than analysis based, but every once in a while, I think it's important to remember this is just a game. Trust me, as the year goes on, we'll have plenty of serious -- and probably negative -- things to talk about. This wasn't the weekend for it, though.

    Manny being Manny in Oakland?
    According to Assistant General Manager David Forst, the A's are open to signing Manny Ramirez. It doesn't sound like the signing is imminent, but it does sound like if he's going to play anywhere in 2012, it's going to be in Green and Yellow.

    So, would you be interested in seeing him in teal and blue? Personally, I'd be willi...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 13 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-29
    Only thirteen days till pitchers and catchers report to the friendly confines of Peoria. If you aren’t excited yet, something’s officially wrong with you.

    FanFest fun
    Mariner FanFest started today, and by all accounts, it was a hoot and a holler. Frequent Prospect Insider/Felix Hernandez skeptic Paul Marsh was at the event, and he took some great photos that he uploaded to twitter.

    If you missed it Saturday – or you just didn’t get enough – get your tickets for Sunday now. Here’s a look at the upcoming autograph schedule and the dugout dialogue schedule as well.

    You can say whatever you want about the Seattle front-office, you cannot insult their public relations/media department. They are as good as it gets. If you have the time and you are able to get to the area, you really should go. No, I’m not paid anything to say that. It’d be really cool if I was though (hint , hint)

    Churchill on Abker
    I know, it sounds like...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 14 days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-01-28
    There are 14 days left until pitches and catchers report. That's two weeks, or 336 hours, or about half a lunar cycle, or two new episodes of your favorite television show. Baseball's getting close, my friends.

    FanFest
    The Seattle Mariners' annual FanFest is this weekend, from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. each day. It's only $10 for adults and $5 for kids, so it's quite a deal for those who would like to experience Safeco Field in a totally new and intimate way. From pitching in the bullpen, to playing a game of catch in the outfield, to strolling through the Mariners' clubhouse, it's a great way to experience The Safe. Whether you have kids, or you're still a kid at heart, it'd be a great opportunity for every Mariners fan.

    For those into collecting, the autograph sessions would be a good way to add to your collection. The schedule for Saturday can be found here, and the schedule for Sunday can be found here. There are a couple of Mariners that will only appear one day out of the two, those being: Ja...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 15 days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-27
    Jason on what not extending Ichiro says about the club.

    We're closing in on spring training, as there are only 15 days left until pitchers and catchers report. Let's dive right in.

    Prospect Lists and Invitations
    The Mariners announced their organizational invites to spring training. The nine players coming to big league camp are right-handers Taijaun Walker, Erasmo Ramirez, Stephen Pryor and Forrest Snow, left-hander James Paxton, infielder Nick Franklin, outfielder Vinnie Catricala and catchers Jesus Sucre and Ralph Hernandez.

    You may notice Danny Hultzen's name missing from the list, but that's purely because he was signed to a major league deal, so his invitation was already there.

    Another interesting note was Vinnie Catricala listed as an outfielder. See below for a quote from Tony Blengino on why the club wants to get Cat the Bat some outfield reps.

    Spring Training Media Luncheon
    The Mariners today held a media event at Safeco Field to discuss a plethora of issues regarding spring training, the roster, player development, Japan travel and more. Here are some of the takeaways I jotted down.

    Kevin Martinez On Pro...

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    M's not extending Ichiro

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-26
    One subject we've deemed untouchable here is trading Ichiro. I keep telling people when they ask me if Team X could be a fit for Ichiro that "we don't talk about fight club." The reason is because the Seattle Mariners aren't going to trade Ichiro.

    It sounds, however, as if they have no plans to extend his contract, either. The great Larry Stone of the Seattle Times spoke to GM Jack Zduriencik Thursday and wrote that the club is "going to allow Ichiro to go into, and possibly through, the season on his current contract."

    That is huge news that is going under the radar.

    Now, Zduriencik did not flat out say the club will not be retaining Ichiro. He said nothing of the sort. This does mean, however, they they aren't going to extend Ichiro's contract and keep him around simply to keep Ichiro around. He has to earn it.

    It also tells me that the club sees value in challenging a player in a contract year, even Ichiro, and that the organization is about winning, not marketing a Japanese player to appease the Japanese flavor of the ownership.

    This is further evidence that Zduriencik's influence is strong, and that the franchise is not acting on the same principles it did in years past. Principles that greatly contributed to the woes its suffered through since the end of the 2003 season.

    Maybe Ichiro earns an extension,...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 16 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-26
    Just 16 days until pitchers and catchers report. I don't know about you, but I am on pins and/or needles.

    A final thought (from me, anyway) about the Pineda trade
    Like many of you, I was following along on twitter as the many beat-writers tweeted various interesting quips from the parties involved with the trade. The most talked about response was Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman’s exclamation that Jesus Montero was maybe the most talented player he’s ever traded, but I was struck by a different quote.

    “I’m feeling great and I’m beyond excited" Pineda said. "I never thought I would become a New York Yankee so early into my career. This is the best thing in the world.”

    Now, maybe all Pineda was trying to say was that he was excited, and the translation got mixed up, or any number of things. But –- did anyone else get the impression that maybe he was saying that this was an inevitability? I realize these players grow up idolizing the pinstripes –- and maybe he would have said that about any team he was traded to (I never thought I’d be a Nippon Ham Fighter so early in my career, come to think of it, that’s probably been said quite a bit), but I found the remark a bit off-putting.

    No, I’m not saying that I’m gl...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 17 days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-01-25
    Jason's take on what's next for the Mariners

    There are 17 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 12 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in
    Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the
    A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though
    these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up
    for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as
    the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you
    might need to get yourself ready.

    Prince in Detroit
    The speculation on where Prince Fielder would land was laid to rest on Tuesday, as a nine-year, $214 million contract from the Detroit Tigers was reportedly accepted by the first baseman. It's the day after, and I still wonder: has this sunken in? It was almost exactly like the Arte Moreno, where he snuck in and offered a giant sum of money to Albert Pujols to earn his...

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    Next for the Mariners

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-24
    With the news Tuesday that Prince Fielder has signed with the Detroit Tigers it brings up one question in the land of the Seattle Mariners: Now what?

    The answer is: Stay the course.

    And ya know what? It's the right move.

    There will be angry M's fans aiming their frustrations at the owners for not ponying up the cash. There will be Jack Zduriencik doubters that suggest he couldn't get a deal done. There will be those that jump ship, and event those that do not renew their season tickets.

    I understand the anger, I understand the frustration. I grew up a fan of the team. I, too, revel in the thought of this team winning playoff games and ultimately a World Series. In no way and to no level, however, would it have been a good idea for the Seattle Mariners to spend $214 million over nine seasons to Fielder. Not even close.

    I wouldn't have been too disappointed at $170 million, but $44 million more makes it a huge mistake, perhaps even for the Detroit Tigers, who generate more revenue than do the Mariners, and they are a World Series contender. They are, in the immediate, buying a better shot at a title.

    The Mariners would have been buying respectability in 2012, selling tickets and generating excitement. Not a World Series. Not in 2012, probably not in 2013, either.

    Staying the course. In September, it's what Zduriencik told me the plan was. Most of you are asking me via text, email, Twitter, and here in the comments at Prospect Ins...

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    Notebook: Fielder and the rotation

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-23
    The Prince Fielder chase continues on, but it appears there is a need to summarize what's happening right now.

    Here is what I have:

    As I tweeted last a few days ago, a source told me that the Washington Nationals' interest in Fielder -- or at last their reported interest -- is overblown. We read that report on the Seattle Mariners a few weeks back when an agent told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that the M's only had $3-4 million dollars to spend the rest of the winter.

    I didn't buy, not for one second, that the M's simply didn't have the money to sign Fielder, or weren't willing to make a competitive offer, so I dismissed that report without thinking twice. I still believe that.

    With the Nationals, it's a different situation. They already have Jayson Werth on the roster -- an immovable contract at that -- making $116 million over the next six seasons, as well as guaranteed money to Mike Morse ($10.5 million over the next two) and Adam LaRoche ($9 million including the buyout of his 2013 option).

    LaRoche has to play first -- or DH, which the Nationals do not have at their disposal. Morse has experience at several positions, but is well below average at all of them except the infield corners. The Nats have the money, but are they willing to use Morse in left field everyday and eat a large chunk of salary to move LaRoche so they can hand Fielder $150-200 million?

    I am not sure. Maybe they are, but the above factors make the "overblown" int...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 18 days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-24
    Jason's latest on Prince Fielder and the rotation.

    There are 18 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 12 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    UPDATE:1:00 PM by Alex Carson -- Prince Fielder is not coming to Seattle. As reported by everyone, Fielder and the Detroit Tigers have agreed to a nine-year pact worth $214 million. No word yet on possible opt-outs, no-trades or vegetarian buffet clauses.

    This was a complete stunner. The Tigers hadn't been linked to Fielder in any serious capacity all off-season. They are thought to have been one...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 19 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-23
    There are 19 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 12 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Millwood signs?
    According to a report from the Gaston Gazette --, the Mariners have signed Kevin Millwood to a contract for 2012. The 36-year old right-hander sent time with three organizations last year –- electing free agency over continuing to pitch in AAA with the Yankees and Red Sox -– before signing with Colorado in August. In nine starts, Millwood posted a 3.98 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 54 innings pitched for the Rockies.

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    Countdown to Peoria: 20 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-22
    There are 20 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 12 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    The times they are a changing
    Pardon the Bob Dylan quote, but yesterdays “trade” between the Rockies and Red Sox for Marco Scutaro fascinated me. It was first reported by Troy Renck –- a very reliable source -– that the two clubs were nearing a deal. Over the next twenty minutes, I’d say a good sixty percent of the baseball people I follow on twitter were offering their analysis of the deal –- what it meant for the Rockies, does this mean the Red Sox were going to sign Roy Oswalt, who would play shortstop now for Boston etc. etc. – wh...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 21 Days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-01-21
    There are 21 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report
    for spring training on February 12 - the rest of the squad will report
    no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for
    the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in
    Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the
    A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though
    these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up
    for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as
    the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you
    might need to get yourself ready.

    Around the league
    The Washington Nationals inked Mike Morse to a two-year, $10.5 million contract. His time was limited with Seattle, as he put up a .300/.365/.397 slash line from 2005 to 2008 in 107 games with the Mariners. Mariners fans will remember the ridiculous spring training he had in 2008 where he batted .478. Hopes were high for him going into the regular season, but after he tore his labrum diving for a ball against the Los Angeles Angels, his year was cut short. Morse was traded by Sea...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 22 days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-20
    There are 22 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 11 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Jesus Montero's Arrival Delayed
    Thanks to visa issues and travel difficulties into the barren tundra of Seattle, Jesus Montero is still stuck in Venezuela.

    As soon as those problems are resolved, he'll arrive in Seattle for a physical and the big trade can be finalized.

    Fausto Carmona Isn't Actually Fausto Carmona
    Reports swirled today that Fausto Carmona is actually Roberto Hernandez Heredia. To make things worse for the Indians, Heredia is 31 years-old, which is older than the aged 28 Carmona.

    You'll rememb...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 23 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-19
    There are 23 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 11 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.
    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    The Darvish initiative
    It shouldn’t come to anyone’s surprise, but the Rangers have finalized their contract with Japanese sensation Yu Darvish. The deal is for five years with an option for a sixth season that could pay him up to $60 million over those six years. It’s a steep price when you consider the $51.7 million posting fee they paid the Nippon Ham Fighters in order to begin these negotiations, though I would have to believe that he’d get more than the $111 million total on the open market.

    So, the question on every Mariner...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 24 days

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-01-18
    There are 24 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 11 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    The Mariners' Hall
    The Mariners announced today that Randy Johnson and Dan Wilson will be inducted into the team Hall of Fame on Saturday, July 28. The duo will be the fifth and sixth members inducted. They will join Alvin Davis, Dave Niehaus, Jay Buhner and Edgar Martinez.

    During the years he was with Seattle, Johnson amassed 2,162 strikeouts, pitched 19 shutouts and averaged an ERA+ of 129. In that same time frame he averaged a 10.6 K/9. He led the league in strikeouts from 1993 to 1995 , while also leading the league in...

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    Countdown to Peoria: 25 days

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-17

    There are 25 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 11 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2nd in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Off-Season Calendar

    Here are some important dates to keep in mind as we roll towards spring training and the beginning of the season.

    Jan. 15: Arbitration filing period end
    Feb. 1-21: Arbitration hearings
    Feb. 11: Pitchers and catchers report
    Feb. 12: First workout for pitchers and catchers
    Feb. 17: Position players report
    Feb. 18: First full-squad workout
    March 2: Mandatory spring training report day
    March 2: Spring games begin
    March 28-29:...

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    M's not waiting around for Prince

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-15
    While I have no inside information on the subject, there have been hints that the Seattle Mariners are still in on Prince Fielder -- at least from the club's standpoint. Whether or not Fielder would consider signing with the M's is another story.

    I guess that is both good and bad, but here's more positive news: GM Jack Zduriencik is not waiting around and dreaming on Fielder.

    The Mariners aren't talking, that is important to note, but there are indications that the club also has a "we aren't adding Fielder" gear, and that mode could be sending them in one or more directions to add talent.

    Since adding Jesus Montero and with Justin Smoak and Mike Carp both on the roster, the top offensive free agents left -- after Fielder -- the likes of Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and Derek Lee -- don't fit, and the trade market appears as dry as a desert -- which means more upgrades to the offense have to come at third base and/or the outfield.

    There's still a chance that a player such as Seth Smith is of interest to Seattle, and if they want a lefty with a better defensive profile to platoon in left field, Ryan Spilborghs is a free agent, too.

    Ryan Ludwick would have to come extremely cheap to be any kind of an option -- considering cost, defense and base running, isn't Casper Wells just as good or better than Ludwick? -- and Xavier Nady and Conor Jackson are better suited for first base or bench duties.

    Carlos Guillen is no longer...

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    Trade with NYY strengthens M's farm

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-14
    The trade consummated Friday night between the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees brought the Emerald City Nine a 22-year-old power hitter in Jesus Montero and a 24-year-old starting pitcher in Hector Noesi. They sent Michael Pineda, 23 next week, and Jose Campos, 19, to the Bronx to complete the deal.

    Whether or not you like the trade from the Mariners' perspective -- and for the record, I think both teams win -- there is no question the transaction made an already-strong M's farm system even better.

    Prior to the deal, I had done most of the work on the chapter of the 2012 Prospect Insider Handbook that discusses where the Mariners' system ranks in Major League Baseball. The latest draft, done Thursday morning, boasts the M's at No. 11. Now they undoubtedly rank in the Top 10.

    Not only does Montero give the club their best power-hitting prospect in almost 20 years, but Noesi is a big-league ready pitcher with a little bit of upside who will rank In PI's Top 20.

    Toss both into the mix with left-handers Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, right-hander Taijuan Walker, shortstops Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, catchers Jack Marder, John Hicks and Marcus Littlewood, third baseman Francisco Martinez and Cat the Bat, Vincent Catricala, among others, and the Mariners are very, very strong in a lot of a...

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    M's pay steep price for Montero

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-14
    The Seattle Mariners have agreed to a deal with the New York Yankees that will send right-handers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos to the Bronx in exchange for righty Hector Noesi and Jesus Montero, a catcher by trade.

    The deal may not become official until as late as Tuesday, as all four players are out of the country and need to be notified and complete physicals, and Monday is a holiday.

    I was told the two sides discussed Ivan Nova rather than Noesi, but the M's settled on the latter.

    In Montero, the Mariners get the No. 2 power-hitting prospect in baseball -- behind Washington's Bryce Harper -- who has six years of service left in the chamber. He's a right-hander, but won't be destroyed by Safeco Field because he's a hitter, not simply a slugger, and has power that could equal 40 doubles and 30 homers annually.

    He could also hit .280 or better and has the plate skills to work counts and draw enough walks to post on-base marks in the .360-.380 range in his prime years. Scouts love his strength and hes even able to hit with authority out on his front foot, like that of future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas.

    He's not going to catch long-term and may not catch much, if at all, for Seattle in 2012. I'd guess they give at least some time back there, however. He's a big guy at 230-240 pounds and whil...

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    Rumor: Pineda traded for Montero

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-13
    Jerry Crasnick first reported that there was a trade in the works for an impact bat, and now Jon Heyman is reporting that Michael Pineda has been traded to the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero.

    As this develops and/or becomes official, we'll have more. It's certainly an interesting trade, and you can be sure we'll have plenty of analysis soon.

    UPDATE: 7:48 PM -- Greg Johns is reporting that Jose Campos and Hector Noesi are also involved in the trade.

    UPDATE: 7:58 PM -- My take: I don't think I care for it. I understand Montero for Pineda -- I don't love it -- but I understand it. Noesi for Campos is insane. I expect another piece in this trade.

    UPDATE:8:11 PM -- Prospect Insider has learned that the deal involving Michael Pineda and Jesus Montero could involve both Ivan Nova and Hector Noesi or just Nova based on the fact that Jose Campos is included in the trade. Interesting.

    UPDATE:8:15 PM -- Prospect Insider has also learned that the Montero trade does/will not preclude the club from signing Prince Fielder. If Fielder was to sign, Justin Smoak is the odd man out. If Fielder signs elsewhere, Smoak/Montero is your 1B/DH combination.

    UPDATE:8:19 PM -- Jason Churchill reports that the deal is NOT done, and could drag into tomorrow. Important to keep in mind.

    UPDATE:8:27 PM -- The reported signing of Hideki Kuroda by the Yankees might make Nova much more plausible now. Nova was t...

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    Latest on Fielder, M's roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2012-01-12
    The Seattle Mariners have made a few moves official over the last week, and we talked about right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma here and Aaron Heilman here, but the club also officially signed Japanese import Menunori Kawasaki.

    Kawasaki, a natural shortstop, is widely considered an average or better defender -- even using the standards in Major League Baseball -- but he's a slap hitter with a bad swing and projects as a reserve, if he even makes the 25-man roster at all.

    He does run well and if he plays with confidence during spring training, could serve as the backup middle infielder the M's were looking for to start the offseason.

    Prince Fielder
    Now, onto bigger and better things. Prince Fielder has yet to sign, and the hottest rumor to date -- until Wednesday, anyway -- was that the Washington Nationals were the most likely destination.

    Bill Ladson of MLB.com reported yesterday, however, that the Nationals were not likely to sign the first baseman. The wording was "99 percent" chance the Nats do NOT sign Fielder.

    Like almost all reports, this could very well be posturing on the Nationals' part, or more speculation than anything on the part of Ladson's source, but it's as viable a set of information as anything else we have. Sort of.

    We learned earlier this week t...

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    Heilman could help in 2012

    By: Chris Crawford on 2012-01-11
    As first reported by Larry Stone, the Mariners have signed Aaron Heilman to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training. Despite having never thrown a pitch in Seattle, he’s somewhat famous with M’s fans for being involved in two different trades –- first the Franklin Gutierrez-J.J. Putz blockbuster, and then traded to Chicago for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson.

    Upon first glance, Heilman was terrible last year; a 6.88 ERA in 32 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. If you take a closer inspection though, the former Notre Dame hurler might have been better than the counting stats tell us. His BABIP was a staggering .360, closer to 70 points higher than his career average. The biggest issue though was the homers –- 20 percent of the fly balls that Heilman gave up left the ball park, which was 45 percent higher than his career average of eleven. His FIP was 5.12, but his xFIP -- admittedly a statistic that has its flaws -– was a much more respectable 3.60. He still misses bats (8.40 K/9 ratio) and he only walked eleven batters in his 35 innings of work.

    I’m not guaranteeing that Heilman is going to help next year –- he’s not even a sure thing to make the team, the pen is one of the strengths of the 2012 roster at this point -– but if you take a closer look at his statistics over his career, he’s the type of arm that can help a major-league roster. This could be your Jamey Wright of 2012, if 2011 is the aberration I think it might be.
    ...

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    How I'd change the HOF voting

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-10
    The Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2012 was announced this week, and as usual, it's a pretty small class. Barry Larkin was the lone player elected by the BBWAA, having received 86 percent of the vote. Larkin, in my view, was a deserving candidate and deserves this honor.

    There were other players on the ballot I'd deem worthy as well, however, including former Seattle Mariners icon Edgar Martinez.

    There has been a lot of talk about how differently the voters think throughout their selection process. Some want a more inclusive hall while others want a more exclusive edition. When you have nearly 600 voters, you're understandably going to have a wide variance of opinion.

    The BBWAA isn't going away and it shouldn't. A large percentage of their members have earned the honor to have a say in who is deserving of a plaque at 25 Main Street in Cooperstown, New York.

    However, we have seen that the Hall of Fame is not opposed to changing things up a bit. When the Veterans Committee failed to induct anyone for several consecutive years, that committee was scrapped as the Golden Era Committee was formed.

    An optimist who dislikes the BBWAA may look at this as hope that the Hall would consider altering their role in voting. But how could they and who would replace them? Could I pick out the best of the best wh...

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    Rizzo, Fielder and the M's

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-01-09
    The speculation that the Chicago Cubs were in on Prince Fielder was quelled Friday morning when the club acquired first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-handed pitcher Zach Cates from the San Diego Padre in exchange for right-handed flamethrower Andrew Cashner and 20-year-old center fielder Kyung-Min Na.

    Rizzo was touted as one of the better first base prospects in the game and he was the fourth at the position on Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect list a year ago. Cates’ fastball sits around 93 mph, and has the ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter, or a plus reliever. Cashner's fastball has been clocked up to 100 mph and he has the stuff to be a closer for any club, although he will probably end up setting up Houston Street in 2012. Na has great speed and has good range in the field, but his ability with the bat is in question.

    The Cubs situation
    Hoyer told reporters that he plans on starting Rizzo in the minors, while giving Bryan LaHair a shot to win a job out of spring training. Remember LaHair? He played in 45 games with the Mariners in 2008, putting up a .250/.315/.346 triple slash, good for a OPS-plus of 78. LaHair has turned some semblance of a corner, it seems, as he won the PCL Most Valuable Player award this past year.

    It seems Hoyer and assistant Jason McLeod may have realized calling up Rizzo when they did may have been a mistake. The Cubs' brass obviously believes that Rizzo's 51 OPS-plus doesn't reflect his true potentia...

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    Impact of Hisashi Iwakuma

    By: Alex Carson on 2012-01-05
    The Seattle Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma have struck a deal, according to several reports.

    You may remember that a little over a year ago, the Mariners were thought to have won the posting rights for Iwakuma. Then it was learned that the Mariners had not won those rights and that the Oakland Athletics prevailed. The A's failed to sign him, however, so he returned to Rakuten.

    This time around, Iwakuma was a free agent, and one entering his age 31 season and coming off a year that saw his shoulder hurt and his velocity dip. Those two occurrences could be related as his velocity reportedly did come back up a bit as he got healthy.

    What can we expect from him?
    When healthy, he wasn't a flame thrower. Iwakuma is a high-80's pitch-to-contact ground-ball guy. Safeco Field tends to be nice to these pitchers. While he'll be facing better competition, he's not going to transform into a flyball pitcher.

    His age and recent injury certainly create some risk, but for the right price this could end up being a good sign. It could even end up being a nifty bargain at the price he's guaranteed on the one-year deal, which is reportedly $1.5 million. The chance of this being a disaster is slim.

    Yes, the Mariners need offense. But, behind Felix and Pineda, their rotation has a lot of question marks heading into 2012. Value is value and if they can get a one-win stopgap on a fair deal, we should all consider that a job well done by GM Jack Zduriencik.
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    Building the back of the rotation

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2012-01-04
    The Seattle Mariners have a few holes to fill with the big league club. The top of their starting rotation isn't one of them. They already have a true top of the rotation starter, and it goes without saying that...well, on second thought, I'm just going to go ahead and not say it. It may break some writing rule or convention, but, there. It went without saying.

    Michael Pineda showcased his ability to completely overpower hitters in the first half of the 2011 season. While his numbers deteriorated and his performance substantially came back down to earth after a spectacular first half of the season, his resolve and attitude showed that he is more than capable of handling the No. 2 slot.

    Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on your outlook, the status of Jason Vargas' contract is currently in arbitration, and the Mariners will likely end up spending anywhere from $4 to $5 million on him this year. Whether you like him or not, Vargas will be coming back for the 2012 season, and he'll probably be slotted in the No. 3 position.

    That leaves the back end of the rotation to be filled. Seattle has kicked the tires on a handful of free agents, and they have a couple of in-house solutions as well. Let's look at a few options that the Mariners can do to build the back of the rotation.

    Danny Hultzen
    Reports have stated that Jack Zduriencik drafted Danny Hultzen because he is major league ready and was a low-risk pick. While there is an i...

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    Fielder field cut in half

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-31
    The Prince Fielder sweepstakes may drag on for another few weeks, but there are signs of movement. Are the M's still in it? Who's the most aggressive club?

    Subscribers can check that out here.

    If your subscription expired or you have yet to become a premium subscriber, click here....

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    Top 10 MLB: Rotations

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-28
    This week, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has ranked the Top 10 starting rotations in Major League Baseball as well as the Top 10 bullpens. It may be a little early to be ranking units with seven weeks still remaining until spring training starts, but it is fun to talk about, so let's riff off that a little bit.

    Olney's Top 10 Rotations started with Philadelphia at No. 1, which is not a surprise, even without Roy Oswalt. It's after that where I don't agree, perhaps even at No. 2 where Olney has the Rays.

    The Rays' placement at that spot is making a large assumption. One, that the club doesn't trade James Shields, Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, and two, that Matt Moore becomes what most believe he ultimately will right away this coming season. My point is, he's not an ace -- yet.

    Here's how I'd rank the Top 10 rotations heading into 2012, with the caveat that things can change with further offseason transactions. Below, I project the top 10 rotations in three years. That one is fun.

    1. Philadelphia Phillies
    Led by Cy Young candidates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee with a strong No. 2 caliber arm in lefty Cole Hamels, The Phillies are in good hands.

    2. Los Angeles Angels
    The Angels, havin...

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    Five Pineda trade ideas

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-27
    We've talked all offseason about Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, Joey Votto and even Hanley Ramirez. The Seattle Mariners, however, have not added any of them, at least not yet, but there are moves I think the Seattle Mariners should consider.

    I'm not all about shopping Michael Pineda -- or Felix Hernandez, for that matter -- for the best bat the club can get in return. The M's shouldn't change their approach just because their division rivals in Texas and L.A. have added big names.

    When the offseason began -- before, actually -- GM Jack Zduriencik told me that the club is planning to stay the course and build a sustainable winner. So, any moves made will have that in mind. If signing Fielder doesn't make sense in three years, they won't do it. If trading Pineda won't make sense in three years, they won't do it. That doesn't mean they aren't trying to win right now, though.

    In that light, among others, including the market price on specific talents, here are five ideas the M's should consider, and then five trade ideas in regards to Pineda.

    1. Trading players at 75 cents on the dollar -- or less
    The problem with trading players such as Franklin Gutierrez is that health or lack of performance has negated much of the value attached to the player in the first place. Gutierrez is signed through 2013 at an average of $6.25 million. He missed chunks of 2011 with a stomach ailment and even when he did play he didn't hit.

    That doesn't mean h...

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    2012 AL West Roster Movement

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-12-22
    With less than ten days left in the calendar year, we're starting to see rosters take shape, and while the off-season is nowhere close to being done, we have reached a point where we can see who the winners and losers of the winter have been.

    In the AL West -- unless you root for a certain team in Orange County, this offseason has been one more of pomp than circumstance. There have been rumors galore, but outside of that fateful last day of the Winter Meetings, there just hasn’t been much in terms of concrete movement. Again, there’s a lifetime left until pitchers and catchers report in Arizona, but as things stand, only one club can be declared "significantly improved" right now.

    Here's a look at what the four teams in the division have done, with their 2011 WAR. Keep in mind that non-consequential free-agents -- players with less than fifty at-bats or innings pitched -- have not been added to the list, with Joe Nathan being an exception to said rule. Also, any unsigned player is considered to have “left” the club, and is counted in the loss column.

    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Coming in: Albert Pujols (5.1), C.J. Wilson (5.9), Chris Ianetta (3.3), LaTroy Hawkins (0.7) 15 WAR total

    Leaving: Fernando Rodney (-0.8), Joel Piniero (1.8), Jeff Mathis (-1.0), Tyler Chatwood (0.5) 0.5 WAR total

    Plain and simply, this is a complete doppelganger of their last two off-seasons. You can question the amount of money a...

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    Fielder, Pineda and Felix

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-20
    The market for free agent first baseman Prince Fielder is a bit stagnant at the moment, and no end is in sight, but there has been some movement on that front in the past 36 hours.

    Also talk about Michael Pineda's trade value -- what could he bring back? -- and I share some a really fun conversation I had with an assistant GM over the weekend about trading Pineda, that turned into a trade that might make sense in dealing Felix Hernandez.

    Subscribers can check that out here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here....

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    Weekend Wrap

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-12-19
    This weekend was full of action as the Seattle Mariners finally made some waves in the offseason, albeit small, unsurfable ones. Although it hasn't been officially announced, Jason A. Churchill reported that George Sherill and the Mariners have come to terms on a one-year deal worth about $1.1 million plus incentives, pending a physical. Greg Johns speculates that the physical will take place after the holidays.

    LOOGY
    Sherrill returns to the Emerald City, presumably as the left-handed specialist out of the bullpen. Sherrill absolutely devours left-handed bats, as made evident by his career .180/.241/.275 slash line against. He probably isn't going to face many right-handed bats, if any, because his career .272/.379/.414 is far less impressive.

    Sherrill had a horrible 2010 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 6.69 ERA. But a year long stint with the Atlanta Braves in 2011 helped increase his value, where he posted a 3.00 ERA and held batters to a .248/.313/.346 slash line.

    The left-handed pitching market is starting to thin out, and the Mariners made out with one of the better hurlers. Arthur Rhodes, Mike Gonzalez, and Darren Oliver are some of the LHP still on the market, but Seattle came to terms with the...

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    Darvish discussion

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-12-14
    UPDATE: Friday @ 12:34 PM PT | M's eye starting pitching, garner interest for their prospects


    Pretty simple really, this thread exists to discuss the soon to be settled Yu Darvish bidding.

    1. Do you want him?

    2. At what cost?

    Also,keep a few things in mind. First, Nippon is aware of the winning bid, not the winning team. Secondly, reports are that Darvish would prefer to play on a West Coast team. And finally, Nippon has until 2:00 PM PST Tuesday to decide whether or not to accept the bid, but can decide immediately and we could find out the results soon.

    Should Darvish be a Mariner?...

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    A different argument for Edgar

    By: Alex Carson on 2011-12-14

    Edgar Martinez's hall of fame candidacy is largely viewed as one with fringe merit by most of the gatekeepers that monitor entry into the elite club. This has been evident considering the low number of votes he received in his first two years on the ballot.

    Some say it'll get better. There aren't as many big names on the ballot for the next couple years. When those names do arrive, questions surrounding the steroid era will arise. Much like what we saw with Jeff Bagwell last year, some players will miss out on votes based on assumptions.

    There are other non-stat related reasons players lose votes other than steroids. If they were paid big money, had egos and were jerks to the media, it'll cost them. Some BBWAA members are quick to point out that the voting rules allow them to include a player's character when considering potential enshrinement.

    The question, then, is this: If you're looking for an upstanding member of the baseball community on and off the field that also played the game at a statistically high level, what better choice do you have than Edgar Martinez? If you're a voter hesitant to vote for a fringe player because he might have used steroids or was mean to anyone with a "PRESS" tag clutching their fedora, shouldn't the same logic be used going the other direction?

    From the hall's w...

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    Lineups and Ichiro Suzuki

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-12
    The offseason is really just getting started as most free agent remain -- including one 275-pound masher -- and very few trades have been consummated to date.

    Beyond potential additions to the roster, including hitters and pitchers alike, there is the question of the batting order. Eric Wedge has told the media on more than one occasion that he considered moving Ichiro Suzuki out of the leadoff spot last season, and that he's considering a change heading into 2012.

    Fact is, it's a mistake to start next season with the aging and declining -- and free-agent-to-be -- Ichiro batting first in the order.

    I'm not going to get all geeky on you and use some statistical formula to support the notion that Ichiro belongs batting elsewhere. I'm simply using common sense here.

    Even if Ichiro bounces back from his worst season and hit 290/340/380, or thereabouts in 2012 -- which is possible, by the way, there's no question he was somewhat unlucky in 2011 -- it's much better for the Seattle Mariners, both in the immediate and distant future, that Ichiro's role be diminished on this club.

    Even though he was unlucky last season, there is no doubt he's in decline, and even the most optimistic of projections suggests he should not bat leadoff for any big league club. A small part of that is because he was never an ideal leadoff bat, but in his prime years still got on base enough to more than warrant the placement.

    The M's will add everyday players -- p...

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    What the M's are up against

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-12-10
    The paradigm shift has begun, as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim inked Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $254 million contract. The largest contract ever awarded to a first baseman started an earthquake among the writers and analysts across the landscape of baseball.

    It will be a while until the aftershocks subside.

    Until the 2012 baseball season begins, fans of teams in the American League West will have to quell their anxiety, as the best hitter of this generation has moved into their backyard. Not only did Los Angeles sign the best free agent hitter on the market, they also signed the best available free agent pitcher in C.J. Wilson to a five-year, $77.5 million contract. The Angels spent more on two players in one day than what was spent over the entirety of the winter meetings.

    The signing of Pujols and Wilson is a mixed bag of emotions, but beyond the primary shock and awe, there's more than just a glimmer of hope for Mariners fans down the road.

    Age and Depth
    In the near future, however, things seem grim. The Halos have strengthened their already stellar rotation, and they added one of the best right-handed bats in the game. Thing is, Anaheim currently doesn't have the system to support success once their alr...

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    Rumor mill continues

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-08
    We chatted for 90 minutes on rumors, prospects and more. Click here to watch the replay!

    With the news that the Los Angeles Angels signed first baseman Albert Pujols -- and left-hander C.J. Wilson -- it seems fans of the Seattle Mariners are emotional and in a state of panic. I'm here to tell those that are freaking out to relax. Sure, the American League West is now a two-team race and for the immediate future the M's have to battle two clubs that are significantly better than they are at present.

    So why not freak out?

    The Angels and Rangers are both far from perfect
    Even with the addition of Wilson and Pujols, the Angels have major concerns, mostly on offense. Certainly Pujols is a huge help and they may be set to win 95 games. Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells, however, are on the decline, and their bullpen is far from dominant, which is why they are interested in Andrew Bailey.

    The Rangers need pitching, and if they get Yu Darvish, they'll be in good shape. If they don't, I can't imagine the Rangers winning the west.

    Long term, the Angels may be in a tough spot. They do have money, lots of money, but they aren't the Yankees and can't continuousl...

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    Winter Meetings 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-05
    UPDATE: Thursday, 10:02 AM PT | Good news on the Fielder front

    UPDATE: Thursday, 09:30 AM PT | Don't jump overboard just yet

    UPDATE: Thursday, 08:48 AM PT | Fielder chances, Rule five selection

    Subscribers can check out the rumor mill by clicking here. This will be updated several times a day as information becomes available. One note -- the Seattle Mariners won't be leaking any information, so anything I hear on them will come from other sources. The club is rightfully tight-lipped, and are good at that as the draft serves as exhibit A.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and follow the two step instructions.



    ...

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    Notes on League, Vargas

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-03
    When the Miami Marlins handed Heath Bell three years and $27 million guaranteed, Brandon League's value grew. Bell's deal includes a vesting option that could raise the total value of the contract to $36 million, and Jonathan Papelbon received $50 million guaranteed from the Philadelphia Phillies last month. That's a lot of scratch for a closer, especially on in Bell is that is not elite.

    There are a number of second-tier closer types still available on the free agent market, including Francisco Cordero and Francisco Rodriguez. Frank Francisco and Matt Capps are also available.

    Ryan Madson is considered the best available free agent closer and is likely to get more than Bell and a little less than Papelbon. He's being chased by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels.

    League's market isn't likely to develop until clubs either decide they aren't willing to commit two or more years and upwards of $8 million per season for a proven ninth-inning option, or once there aren't any of those options remaining.

    The right-hander, who is set to make $4 million or so via arbitration and will hit free agency next winter, could generate interest from the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and perhaps the Boston Red Sox. The Sox, however, would most likely u...

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    M's announce PD staff

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-02
    The Seattle Mariners announced their minor league staffs for the 2012 season and there are some interesting changes.

    We knew Pedro Grifol would take over as skipper at Class-A High Desert while Chris Gwynn was brought in as Player Development Director. There were more adjustments, however.

    Daren Brown is back as manager in Triple-A Tacoma and Dwight Bernard returns as pitching coach. Alonzo Powell was hired by the Padres.

    Jim Pankovits returns to manage Double-A Jackson and Lance Painter will be the pitching coach. Cory Snyder will serve as hitting coach.

    Eddie Menchaca will again manage Class-A Clinton with pitching coach Andrew Lorraine (pitching) and Tommy Cruz (hitting) by his side.

    Everett will be led by Rob Mummau, who was the club's Carolina area scout. Yes, the same guy that signed Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, to name a few. He's now an area scout in Florida.

    Rich Dorman is back in Everett to serve as pitching coach and Andy Bottin will coach the hitters.

    Tom Dettore, who is back for his fourth year in the organization, will be Grifol's pitching coach. Roy Howell will be the team's hitting coach. It's Howell's first season in Seattle's organization, but he has several years of experience coaching and managing.

    Mike Kinkade will manage the rookie club in Peoria and last year's High Dese...

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    How Fielder fits

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-12-01
    The Seattle Mariners are among a handful of clubs interested in free agent first baseman Prince Fielder. It's a small handful, not several, and no matter what is reported, it will never become several -- as in 10 or more. The M's have a need, have the money and payroll flexibility and the will to use it -- at least that is 100 percent my belief.

    Some don't see how the M's can fit Fielder into the payroll, others don't see why they'd want to. Both are legitimate concerns and opinions -- one a lot more valid than the other.

    Subscribers can read how the M's can fit Fielder into their plans and still have the payroll to continue to build around Fielder by clicking here.

    Also in this entry: Quotes from an agent and former exec on Fielder's market, why Fielder could view Seattle as the place to be and what other big bats the M's have eyes for.

    I also project the M's 25-man roster, using only the players currently under contract.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, Prospect Insider is offering a discounted rate on an annual subscription -- now through Sunday only. Click here to subscribe.
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    M's eye Smith, two sign

    By: Alex Carson on 2011-11-30
    If there's one thing that we can look forward to in 2012, something that will help bury the anguish that was 2011, it's that Adam Kennedy won't be back with the Seattle Mariners. That's because the Los Angeles Dodgers have reportedly signed Kennedy. On purpose.

    Kennedy, going into his age 36 season, is swiftly becoming one of those grizzled veterans that won't go away. He's the kind of guy who isn't very good anymore, but his experience somehow gets him on major league rosters year after year.

    The last time Kennedy's production was significantly better than a random replacement level minor leaguer was 2008. The last time he was a guy you'd really want on your team was 2005. Yet, here he is, still toiling around the majors, siphoning money from a team's budget.

    Clearly, Kennedy is going to the Dodgers with different expectations that he had when he signed with Seattle. He's not starting the season at a set position, holding down the fort for a highly touted prospect. Instead, he knows he'll be bouncing around the infield as a reserve. So long as the money is right, and Kennedy doesn't find himself playing every day due to injury, this may not be so bad for the Dodgers.

    Plus, very rarely will Donny Baseball be subject to the same tem...

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    Royals add Broxton and flexibility

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-11-29
    The Kansas City Royals decided to follow in the risk-taking Texas Rangers footsteps by signing right-handed flamethrower Johnathan Broxton to a one-year, $4 million guaranteed contract, pending a physical exam to be conducted on Wednesday. Broxton injured his elbow in early May this year and had surgery this September. The Broxton deal was preceded by two other deals that made quiet ripples in the free agent ocean: the two-year, $9 million contract given to left-handed pitcher Bruce Chen, and then the trade of outfielder Melky Cabrera for left-handed pitcher Jonathan Sanchez from the San Francisco Giants.

    Texas signed Joe Nathan to take over the closer's role because they want Neftali Feliz in their starting rotation. Texas already has the lineup, the rotation and the bullpen to contend in 2012. Kansas City signed Broxton because they are banking on the potential of their youth.

    Jerry Crasnick reports that Broxton will set up closer Joakim Soria next season. The biggest thing that Broxton has to offer to the Royals is flexibility. There have been talks that the front office might trade Soria, or even move him into the rotation. Either way, Broxton joins the already youthful bullpen, and at 27, he would be the oldest member coming out of the 'pen.

    Broxton's K/9 rate was 7.1 in his 14 appearances this year, dropping from 10.5 in 2010 and 13.5 the year previous. Although signing a pitcher after an injury year is a risk, it's still a low-risk move. Broxton wa...

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    Another draft rule

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-29
    As it turns out, we're still learning about the new CBA as it pertains to the draft, and MLB.com shed some more light on the way clubs can handle their picks and pool of money in which they can spend.

    In addition to values assigned to picks -- which clubs CAN go over without penalty as long as their team pool is not exceeded -- clubs that fail to sign a pick lose the value of that pick as part of their pool.

    For example, let's say with a $10 million pool, for the sake of argument, the Seattle Mariners draft, oh, I don't know, Mark Appel from Stanford at No. 3, and they do not sign him. Their pool now becomes $4.8 million. They cannot use that $5.2 million assigned value for the No. 3 pick on other picks later in the draft.

    What they can do, as far as anyone knows at this stage, is sign the player to a deal less than the assigned value and use the "savings" toward other picks.

    So what we will see by a lot of clubs is above-value signings in certain spots and what used to be called "slot or below-slot selections on pre-draft agreements in other areas of the draft to "save" pool money.

    It's another poor rule, because now the player has all the leverage and signability becomes an even bigger factor than it already is and there will be a lot more of the illegal pre-draft deals pounded out.

    The other side of that, however, is if clubs were allowed to punt the pi...

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    M's acquire catcher

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-27
    The Seattle Mariners have acquired catcher John Jaso from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-hander Josh Lueke and either a player to be named later or cash, reports Marc Topkin via Twitter.

    This move eliminates the possibility that Adam Moore begins the 2012 season as the backup to Miguel Olivo, barring injury or trade.

    Jaso, who will not be arbitration eligible until next season, is a cheap addition, bats left-handed and has good plate skills. He's 28 and does not have much wear and tear on his body, always a good thing for a catcher.

    In 2010, Jaso posted a .372 on-base mark, and he has more power than his raw slugging percentages suggest. His '11 number were partly impacted by a dip in BABIP, down nearly 40 points from 2010.

    Jaso is a terrific alternative to Ryan Doumit, who costs $3 million guaranteed and can't catch. Jaso can catch enough to be a backup, and is known to call a good game. He has average arm strength and blocking skills.

    Olivo can now be spared the overuse, which will keep him as effective as humanly possible.

    Lueke had better stuff at the end of the year than he did at the start, including 92-96 mph velocity, but his command was below-average all year and the M's have a slew of young relievers, including Tom Wilhelmsen and Stephen Pryor.

    The player to be named isn't likely to be a top prospect, and unless it is this...

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    New rules help Mariners

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-27
    The new draft rules that bring limits to the amount of money clubs can spend on the draft and international signings. In general, I do not like those new regulations, but the Seattle Mariners may actually benefit from each.

    The M's have done some serious damage in the draft the past three seasons, and have spent a good amount of money. The M's, however, have done so without "overpaying" a number of picks in each class, with the major exception being James Paxton in 2010. Still, Paxton didn't break the bank and the M's spent a reasonable amount of money on each class since the new regime took over the reins.

    Using the 2009, 2010 and 2011 draft classes as the sample, the M's appear to be out-scouting the majority of the league. That's not to say they have been perfect or haven't made mistakes, but the same can be said for any and all clubs without exception.

    The Mariners have been getting value after the first few rounds, such as Kyle Seager, Vincent Catricala, Paxton and Stephen Pryor, and this past year's class could boast similar value in Carter Capps.

    The M's will still be counting on their scouting department, led by Scouting Director Tom McNamara, and their ability to recognize big-league baseball players in an amateur athlete. The n...

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    The New CBA

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-25
    The new collective bargaining agreement sucks, plain and simple. I don't care if you believe it's good -- you're wrong. Yes, there are a few positives, including the doing away with the Elias Player Rankings and the manner in which clubs are compensated for losing free agents. And maybe it turns out to be a good thing that the leagues will each contain 15 clubs starting in 2013 and as early as next fall we'll see 10 playoff teams, rather than eight.

    In the end, however, there is a great net loss, for players, fans and even the owners.

    Let's tackle the good and bad of the new CBA.

    • Creating balance between the two leagues is a good thing, and having five teams per division levels the playing field in a small manner -- the schedule. It will be as fair as it can be starting in 2013 when the Houston Astros join the American League West. This move could very well help tilt the scales toward equality between the two leagues, too, although with the DH in the junior circuit and not in the NL, the leagues will never be truly equal in terms of overall talent.

    • Clubs will be allowed to expand rosters for doubleheaders. It's only by one to 26, but this can only be a good thing in those circumstances and are likely to be utilized with p...

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    New rules impact 2-sport stars

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-11-23
    As you are all aware of by now, the MLBPA and owners have agreed on a Collective Bargaining Agreement, thus avoiding even the threat of a work stoppage. Anyone who is a fan of the NBA and NFL can tell you that this is positive news, but the new deal doesn't come without some serious caveats.

    The ability to rely on player development took a major hit with the announcement of new rules that prevent major-league contracts to drafted players and severely punishes teams that chose to spend over the new suggested slotting terms. As good as the news was that the Elias Sports Bureau Type-A and Type-B compensation was eliminated; this was a step backwards, not a sign of progress.

    And so with these new regulations comes a new fear: Talented high-school athletes that play different sports could decide take their talents to those sports. This was already an issue, as the sport just isn't as popular with youths and urban communities as football or basketball, and Major League Baseball has done a poor job of advertising its product to those demographics.

    Some have already brought up that players such as Carl Crawford and Joe Mauer -- who was an All-American quarterback in high school -- would have chosen to play football instead of baseball under thes...

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    Barmes, Nathan and market trends

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-11-23
    The great thing about the off-season is that there's always action. Although there are no games to play, there's always roster movement -- whether it's lateral or vertical -- and it often makes for great water-cooler conversation. The Hot Stove is definitely heating up, and it seems like both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers have spent too much time around the pot.

    Clint Barmes is the Pirates shortstop of the future -- the limited future of the next two years. Barmes will make $10.5 million during his stay in the City of Bridges. At 32, he is somewhat of a bargain for the franchise. He won't break the bank like deserving shortstops like Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, and he won't demand an inflated veteran free agent salary like Rafael Furcal. In essence, it's a good move for the Pirates. They fill a need with a veteran presence without breaking the bank; the problem is that Barmes' track record doesn't justify $5.25 million a year.

    It's apparent that the Pirates are willing to spend cash quickly to get the players they want, made evident by the swift signing of Rod Bajaras over a week ago. With the position that Pittsburgh is in, it's unfortunate that a talented player like Ronny Cedeno gets passed over. Barmes had a great year with the Ho...

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    The M's interest in Bailey

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-21
    I just wrote over the weekend that the Seattle Mariners should trade closer Brandon League and then Monday ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets that the M's are among the clubs that have inquired about the availability of Oakland Athletics closer Andrew Bailey.

    I tweeted said report and what happened after that I should have seen coming. Lots of "why?" questions, as in, why would the M's want Bailey when it will cost them trade pieces?

    First of all, to my knowledge there has been no trade, and not even an offer. There are several reasons to check in on a player's availability.

    1. Because the inquiring club would like to have that player
    2. Because the inquiring team might need a partner in a 3-way trade scenario
    3. Because the inquiring team might need to acquire a piece to make another trade they have brewing a reality.
    4. Because the inquiring team has a somewhat similar player and are tracking the asking price
    5. Because they are hoping to drive up the asking price for rival clubs

    Pay close attention to No. 4. The M's could either be looking for a multi-year Brandon League replacement that is a proven commodity, or attempting to trace the value of such a player so they have a better idea what League could be worth on the trade market.

    If it's the latter, the M's could prefer to know one way or the other on League -- whether or not they wil...

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    RIP Greg Halman

    By: PositivePaul on 2011-11-21
    Greg Halman smiles during pregame warmups at Cheney Stadium on 4/10/2010


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    The M's should trade Brandon League

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-19
    Among the decisions the Seattle Mariners will have to make this offseason is whether or not to entertain trade offers for right-hander Brandon League. Let me rephrase that; the M's have to decide whether or not it's in their best interest to seriously look to move League this winter. Of course they should listen to trade offers, they should listen on every player on the roster, even Felix Hernandez.

    With League, there are a few factors that suggest keeping him is the best move. For one, he's affordable. The M's aren't strapped for payroll flexibility to the point that League has to be traded in order to create the necessary available monies to land the impact pieces GM Jack Zduriencik and his crew need to acquire to take a large step toward contention in 2012.

    League made $2.25 million in 2011 and is arbitration eligible for the final time this winter. He'll be tendered and should earn at least $4 million next season, perhaps even $4.5-5 million. For a closer, that's reasonable, but that brings up the key question: Is League a legit closer?

    Overall, he was this past season, but it was his first and only season in the role, and his road splits are awful, suggesting he can close at the Safe but in a neutral or hitter's environment he...

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    Trade Ideas, Free Agent Rumors

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-18
    We've discussed since the end of the season the potential targets for the Seattle Mariners -- who could all be targets for several other clubs, too -- including the likes of Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Nick Swisher, Jay Bruce, Grady Sizemore, David Wright and Logan Morrison.

    There's more to the possibilities than those listed above, so let's talk about some of those now. Before we get to them, however, it's worth noting that most tweets and reports suggest the M's are players for Sizemore, Votto is going nowhere, Wright will only be dealt if the New York Mets are blown away and Morrison isn't likely to be moved this winter.

    The M's and Sizemore could be a match, but he doesn't necessarily qualify as the kind of impact hitter the M's are seeking. He may, however, qualify as a solid secondary pickup. His health, of course, is the main issue.

    Subscribers can check out the other ideas I have heard, had conversations about and debated with scouts and a few front office personnel this past week and a half by clicking here. Oh, also, there's some news on Fielder in here, too, as well as potential news on a Chone Figgins trade and several legitimate trade and free agent targe...

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    M's miss out on Doumit

    By: Alex Carson on 2011-11-18
    Word on the mean streets of the SoDo district is that the Minnesota Twins have inked catcher Ryan Doumit to a 1 year contract valued at $3 million.

    "Hey," you might shout. "The Mariners could have used that guy!” Sure, you'd contend, the M's have Miguel Olivo but could have used Doumit as a dish backup, DH, first baseman and corner outfielder.

    While Olivo was the cause of anguish for some fans in 2011, Doumit wouldn't have figured to take much of his squat time away. Doumit isn't a solid defensive catcher and the toll his body has taken isn't worth him remaining there.

    Doumit's value is tied to his offensive potential. He produced a .303/.353/.477 triple slash and a .360 wOBA last season in 77 games.

    Indeed, a fine shortened 2011 he had. Perhaps the best 77 game stretch of his career. Though, with an inflated BABIP from career norms and knowing that he'll be 32 on opening day, there isn't reason to expect anything explosive from him.

    Signing Doumit certainly would not have solved the Mariners offensive woes. It may have been a small step in the right direction, but I'll be the first to say I'm glad I don't have to be faced with the potential of seeing Ryan Doumit flounder around left-center field in a way that would leave me longing for Raul Ibanez's defense.

    Doumit could have been a decent and cheap pickup with offensive upside. Don't get too caught up though in the club losing out on handing $3 million to a non-catching catcher who...

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    Michael Pineda: A 2011 Retrospective

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-11-16
    Participate in the latest Prospect Insider Poll -- we want to know what kind of content you want to see more of here!


    The Seattle Mariners' season was a disappointment. It wasn't a disaster, but it was certainly a disappointment. Most of that disappointment stems from the taste of contention experienced early in the season. On July 5th, the Mariners were sitting at an even .500. A month before that, Eric Wedge was quoted as saying that the team may have "a chance to make a run at this." Even at only two-and-a-half games back and 86 games into the season, things were looking up. There was hope, maybe even a chance. There was an opportunity.

    The historic 17-game-losing streak that followed ended that glimmer of opportunity. Inconsistency was the theme of the 2011 season. The offense was anemic, the pitching's peak and trough of success was frustrating, and some of the manager’s in-game decisions were mind-numbing.

    Their abysmal performance on the field forced the fan base to salvage something positive from the season. Luckily, Felix Hernandez
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    MLB Awards 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-14
    Just as the regular season came to an end, I polled a slew of baseball geeks on the Major League Baseball Awards. The responses all came in before the postseason began, just as is required of the Baseball Writers Association of America, and 133 ballots were received via email. I polled for votes in each league's MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Executive of the Year, an ALL-MLB Team, and an ALL-MLB Gold Glove team.

    It's worth noting that not everyone voted for each award -- some didn't feel they were informed enough to make a decision, or flat out couldn't make up their minds on certain awards. Generally, there were 75-105 votes for each award for the results linked below.

    The BBWAA (yes, two B's in that) announced their voting for the Rookie of the Year Awards. Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel took the honors in the National League and Jeremy Hellickson won the award in the American League. I can guarantee you that Hellickson shows up nowhere in the top five in the results of my poll.

    Get the results for the individual awards by clicking here.

    Get the All-MLB Awards by clicking here.
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    Potential Winter Target: Prince Fielder

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-10
    All you need for the Hot Stove action is here:

    Important Dates and Deadlines

    The M's payroll situation

    Links to free agents by position

    Albert Pujols is perhaps the greatest hitter the game has seen in more than a half century, but the big fish on the free agent market is Prince Fielder. Fielder is coming off another excellent season at the plate, posting a .415 on-base percentage and smacking 38 home runs. He'll be just 28 years old next May and has postseason experience.

    On paper, as a hitter, Fielder looks like the perfect free agent, and some club is certainly going to sign him to a long-term deal at well over $100 million.

    When assessing what Fielder is worth on the open market one has to take a number of factors into consideration. We know Fielder can hit. We know he's a below-average defensive first baseman, and we know he's a left-handed stick that fits in any lineup. Let's tackle those factors, one-by-one.

    Production
    Fielder is a legitimate middle-of-the-order b...

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    The Pujols Paradigm

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-11-08
    The Hot Stove League begun its season and the biggest free agent of all is St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. Prospect Insider's Adam H. Wong wonders aloud what the impact might be should Pujols do the unthinkable. No, not leave St. Louis, but take a rather enormously discounted contract.

    All you need for the Hot Stove action is here:
    Big thanks to Bryan Henken -- @bhenken08 -- for his time and energy in putting together the free agent charts.

    Important Dates and Deadlines

    The M's payroll situation

    Links to free agents by position

    Association is a funny thing. Many of us have seen historic moments in baseball; The Bill Buckner error in 1986. The Joe Carter walk-off home run in 1993. The 2001 season. Dave Niehaus. For the few who are privileged enough to participate in said action, they get to live those historic moments. The 2011 World Series gave us a glimpse into history, as one player joined an elite gro...

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    Potential Winter Target: All-Star OF

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-06
    The Hot Stove League is under way and we've taken a look at several players that could be the subject of trade discussions or free agent contracts, including third baseman David Wright, outfielder Nick Swisher, first baseman Logan Morrison, free agent Grady Sizemore, and Reds first baseman Joey Votto.

    The M's payroll situation is discussed here.

    Subscribers can check out the file on an All-Star outfielder that may be a target of clubs this winter -- including the Mariners -- by clicking here.

    To become a subscriber, click here.

    The first new subscriber will also receive a free subscription to ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider....

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    Important dates, Rule 5 notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-05
    As the offseason continues -- and it's been a fairly busy week since the World Series concluded, clubs have a ton to think about. There were deadlines for contract options, and moving forward there are due dates for all kind of things, including for teams to set their reserve list for the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place in Dallas December 8.

    The Seattle Mariners' roster now sits at 35 after the recent moves -- David Aardmsa electing free agency and Jeff Gray being claimed by the Minnesota Twins, and left-hander Anthony Vasquez being outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma.

    The M's do have some Rule 5 eligibles that they need to consider adding to the 40-man roster, and there could be a few more roster removals, too.

    Let's focus on the potential additions first.

    One thing to note is that any of the following could be included in a trade package before the roster deadlines -- or even after the deadline and before the Rule 5 Draft itself.

    Carlos Triunfel, SS
    Triunfel is certain to be added to the 40-man if he's not involved in a trade. His statis has lost its luster due to the lack of development and injuries, but there's still some upside there and he's close enough to being big-league ready that a club such as Pittsburgh, Houston or Baltimore could take a stab at him if he's left unprotected.

    Francisco Martinez, 3B
    Martinez will be added, there's no doubt. His situation is very much like that of Carlos Triunfel last year, but...

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    Bargain bin free agents

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-11-03
    This winter, not every baseball team is going to be able to break the bank when it comes to acquiring free agents. The Baltimore Orioles, for example, spent $8 million on a rent-a-DH in Vladimir Guerrero in 2011, and while he only was able to put up a .290/.317/.416 with a paltry 13 home runs, he gave the team flexibility with an injury-prone Luke Scott still on the roster.

    The cost of acquiring Guerrero was steep due to the lack of power bats available on the trade and free agent markets. The $8 million for one year, however, was not a bargain. I liken a bargain deal to those clearance DVD bins found in retail stores. You have to dig deep and shuffle through a giant pile to find something somewhat entertaining.

    The Seattle Mariners took fliers on veteran arms such as Chris Ray and Jamey Wright, costing the team nearly $2 million combined. They were both somewhat useful and fairly entertaining.

    Bargain free agents are essentially keeping the seat warm for the superstars in the making and stars who haven't yet made their way onto the team. Let's take a look at some of the potential free agents that will have a low impact on franchise wallets, but come with some upside.

    David Aardsma, RHP
    Aardsma opted to beco...

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    Potential Winter Target: Joey Votto

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-02
    Joey Votto might be the second or third best hitter in baseball, and is certainly among the top 10. He won the National League MVP Award in 2010, leading his Cincinnati Reds to the NL Central Division title. He's right there with Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera among the very best first baseman in the game.

    He's also a solid fielder, drawing scouting grades ranging from average to above average, and the metrics back that up, particularly the past two seasons. And he's still just 28 years of age, and will be through most of the 2012 season. Naturally, that makes him an ideal addition to just about any club in baseball.

    Including the Seattle Mariners.

    Check out the profile on Votto and his chances to be moved this winter by clicking here.

    Also, subscribers check out the files on New York Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher, New York Mets third baseman David Wright, Marlins slugger Full Story - Comments (31)
    Aardsma, Gwynn, notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-11-01
    The Seattle Mariners made it official Tuesday, announcing the hiring of Chris Gwynn as the club's new player development director. Pedro Grifol, who previously held the post, will manage the High Desert club in the California league.

    I am not aware of any further announcements on that High Desert staff, but as I wrote here, those adjustments may be coming this winter.

    Pitching notes
    David Aardsma became a free agent Monday after the M's removed him from the 40-man roster. This was not a surprise, since the right-hander had Tommy John surgery this past summer and could miss all of 2012.

    Aardsma made $4.5 million last season and was set to his arbitration again. There was obviously no chance the club was going to tender an offer, since the most a player's salary can be cut via the arbitration process is by 20 percent, which means Aardsma would have been assigned a salary of at least $3.6 million -- to not pitch.

    Aardsma could re-sign with the M's on a minor league deal with a very low base salary and incentives for appearances, but he can also get that from several other teams.

    The M's have plenty of young relief arms for 2012, but it might be nice to add an inexpensive veteran or two. if Charlie Furbush is slated for the rotation, the M's could check the market for a left-hander ...

    There are some in the industry that believe GM Jack...

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    Fundraiser for Youth Baseball

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-31
    If you've followed Prospect Insider for any length of time you probably know that we like to help worthy causes raise funds. We raised over $4,000 for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society two summers ago and helped out Cole, a five-year-old with a serious form of cancer.

    For the record, Cole, now 6, is doing quite well, though he's not out of the woods yet, so cross your fingers!

    This time I'm trying to help a youth baseball player, Brandon Jessee, raise money so he can honor his invitation to compete in the USA Baseball 14U team at their National Tournament in Arizona in June.

    The tournaments are played at Peoria, Glendale and Goodyear.

    In order to raise these funds, his team sells oranges. Yes, you read that correctly, they sell oranges to those in the Puget Sound area, from Olympia to Everett. It's $27 for a 20 pound case. Yep, 20 pounds! That's $1.35 per pound. At the grocery stores, oranges range from $1.49 per pound -- I checked myself tonight -- all the way to $1.69, depending on where you shop.

    I bought a case myself last year; they are high-quality small oranges, so they are perfect for kids, and I used a lot of them by slicing them up and putting t...

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    Potential Target: Grady Sizemore

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-31
    In the fourth of a series of profiles of potential winter targets for the Seattle Mariners, Grady Sizemore's new-found freedom could provide the M's with an option that may not have otherwise presented itself.

    Subscribers can check out the file on Grady Sizemore, with a projected lineup included, by clicking here.

    To become a new subscriber, click here.

    Check out similar analysis on New York Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher, New York Mets third baseman David Wright and Florida Marlins slugger Logan Morrison.

    The M's payroll situation is outlined here.
    ...

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    Realignment and the DH

    By: Alex Carson on 2011-10-29
    One of the worst kept secrets in baseball right now surrounding the CBA discussions is a realignment plan that would see the Houston Astros move from the National League Central to the American League West. It could become a reality as soon as next season or perhaps 2013 if the schedule makers don't want to start from scratch for 2012.

    Mariners' players probably won't be too upset about playing 10 fewer games to the right of the Mississippi, but the change probably benefits the Rangers and Astros the most. An in-state rivalry and far less travel should be helpful for those two clubs. Plus, four teams to beat out for a division title is an easier task than five.

    There could be a disadvantage seen across the rest of the American League, though: Loss of value from the designated hitter.

    I'm doing a bit of educated guessing here, so bear with me. But with two 15-team leagues, we'd have to see interleague play every day. This would mean that teams like the M's would play 40 games per year on the road in National League parks under their non-DH rules.

    Historical example: When interleague play began in 1997, the Mariners played four road games in NL parks. Edgar Martinez played two games at first base, showed up as a third baseman for one a...

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    Angels new GM was M's No. 2 choice

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-28
    The Los Angeles Angels are reportedly set to hire Jerry DiPoto as their new general manager. This is not good news for the Seattle Mariners. I figured the Halos would botch this, but they didn't. DiPoto was one of the very top candidates out there -- from what I can gather, probably in the top 3 if not No. 1.

    DiPoto's track record includes significant experience in both the scouting and player development departments, and he was a big league pitcher, to boot.

    ESPN Insider's Keith Law chimed in with his thoughts on the newest GM in the American League West:

    "DiPoto is a tremendous hire for the Angels -- he brings a complete resume with experience in scouting and player development, a brief but successful tenure as Arizona's interim GM in 2010, and a progressive, curious mindset that has made him one of the most research-oriented people I've come across on the scouting/PD side of the business. He has great presence in a room, and will benefit from the credibility that is automatically conferred on anyone who played in the big leagues. Of all of the names the Angels interviewed, he would have been my choice for the job."

    You can make the argument that Logan White is equally as good a candidate, and Damon Oppenheimer, too, at least in my opinion. DiPoto made a mark as interim GM, however, during the second half of 2010 when Josh Byrnes was fired. DiPoto...

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    Felix Hernandez: A 2011 Retrospective

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-10-26
    Winning a championship will do something to this city. Something that is currently hard to imagine. We will see every seat at Safeco Field occupied rather than a sea of vacancy. When conversing about the Seattle Mariners, we will see smiles rather than frowns. We will be able to stay "I knew them when..." When Jose Vidro was our full-time DH, when Chone Figgins wasted years of our payroll, when we got to see The Kid and The Big Unit at the Kingdome -- when they won their first World Series. Winning sets expectations.

    Things would be interesting for Felix Hernandez coming into 2011. After his Cy Young season, expectations were high. We have to go back more than a decade to get a pitcher who consecutively won the award. Pedro Martinez was 27 in 1999, and when he won the award again in 2000, he put up equally impressive numbers. Hernandez, 25, was dominant during his own award-winning campaign.

    At first glance, it may seem like Hernandez's 2011 was less than stellar relative to his 2010. Some fans and media wondered if there was anything wrong with him, as if he wasn’t really good. Deeper examination shows otherwise.

    The first thing that comes to mind when thinking about Hernandez is dominance -- his ability to completel...

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    Potential Target: Logan Morrison

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-25
    We move right along with the in-depth look at any and all potential targets for the Seattle Mariners this winter. Some won't be legitimate candidates at all, some will be, but they all need to be addressed since we don't know the thought process of the M's nor the other clubs that could be involved.

    The possibility of Logan Morrison is on the brain today.

    Prospect Insider premium subscribers can check out the file on Morrison and the chances the M's are major players on that front by clicking here.

    If your are not a subscriber, click here and fix that....

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    The M's window starts now

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-10-23
    As you watched the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals play a riveting first two games of the Fall Classic -- and a blowout in Game 3 -- it may have been difficult to avoid growing green with envy of fans of both clubs, unless you are a fan of one of them. Only the New York Yankees have won more championships than the Cardinals and the Rangers are playing in their second World Series in as many years.

    Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners are coming off their third 90-loss season in four years, and will be picking in the top five for the fifth time in seven years. With the two-time American League Champions playing in the division, all signs point to another long year for the hometown nine. Right?

    Not so fast, my friend.

    While the odds are certainly against them, there are reasons for Mariners fans to have optimism for the 2012 season. Here are a few reasons why we could all be watching postseason baseball at Safeco Field next fall.

    The pitching is really good
    Even with the losses of right-hander Doug Fister (traded to Detroit) and Erik Bedard (traded to Boston), the rotation should still be of a caliber that can take a team into the playoffs. There isn't a starting-pitcher in baseball I'd rather have than Felix Hernandez, and Michael Pineda was better than anyone could have hoped. Jason Vargas and Blake Beavan were adequate back-end starters and then some. There's also the possibility that either Danny Hultzen or James Paxton -- or...

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    The GM Candidates

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-21
    There will be five clubs that start 2012 with a different general manager than they did this past season. The Chicago Cubs are in the midst of trading for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod, which has opened the door for Ben Cherington to take over the Red Sox and for Josh Byrnes to get a second shot at the helm, this time with the San Diego Padres.

    The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles are interviewing candidates right now, and those talks should conclude sometime next week. I have been asking anyone and everyone in the game about the top candidates, so let's take a closer look.

    Jerry DiPoto -- Arizona Diamondbacks
    DiPoto, a third-round draft pick of the Cleveland Indians in 1989, pitched for parts of eight seasons with three clubs, hanging up the spikes after the 2000 season. He began his scouting career in 2003 with the Boston Red Sox and after two years took over as the director of pro scouting for the Colorado Rockies in 2005. He left for Arizona after one season, becoming the Diamondbacks' Director of Scouting and Player Personnel under GM Josh Byrnes.

    Byrnes was fired in July, 2010, and DiPoto took over as interim GM, completing two major trades that landed the re-loading D-backs right-hander Daniel Hudson, the c...

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    Microsplits in the World Series

    By: Adam H. Wong on 2011-10-19
    There's something to be said about the breadth of statistics. More than just analytic explorations, statistics offer a glimpse into concrete evidence that isn't immediately evident. They reveal hidden trends; reverse platoon splits, an increase in walks from the beginning of the season to the end, or possibly the inverse. They offer explanations beyond our eyes. I embrace the power of numbers.

    The problem with statistical analysis is that sometimes proof-texting occurs. Someone takes a seemingly relevant sample, but its size and context distort the statistics.

    Small sample sizes do not yield statistically significant results. Dave Cameron recently wrote an article on the subject, and he's completely correct. Pitcher vs. batter splits are interesting, but in no way are they predictive of future results.

    Let's take a look at a few of the microsplits that will inevitably be used during the World Series, so we can be well informed and laugh at those who tell us otherwise.

    Chris Carpenter

    Adrian Beltre -- Beltre will be an interesting case to watch, because his average of .333 looks great for a p...

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    World Series Preview

    By: Alex Carson on 2011-10-18
    The American League's Texas Rangers take their second consecutive stab at the World Series, this time facing the National League's St. Louis Cardinals.

    The Cards, you'll remember, just won it all for the 10th time in their history back in 2006. However, in a sports world where instant gratification and what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitudes run wild like Dik-diks through the Serengeti, it may feel a lot longer than five years ago that the Red Birds finished on top.

    The Rangers are in the midst of their first real "window" in franchise history. Having never even been to an LCS before 2010, this is their second straight opportunity to plan a parade through the streets of Arlington. For a look at how this incarnation of the club has been built, check out Jason A. Churchill's piece from Monday.

    Preview Contents:
    Offense Snapshot
    Pitching Matchups
    Mariners Connections

    Offense Snapshot

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    How the Texas Rangers were created

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-16
    The Texas Rangers are the first American League team to appear in back-to-back World Series since the New York Yankees appeared in four straight in 1998-2001. Only the Philadelphia Phillies (2008-09), the Atlanta Braves (1991-92, 1995-96), Toronto Blue Jays (1992-93) and Oakland Athletics (1988-90) add to that total since the 1978 Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers met for the second straight season -- the third appearance in a row for the Bombers.

    These Rangers were built by general manager Jon Daniels, team president Nolan Ryan and their staff of scouts and executives. Daniels took over a club that went 79-83 in 2005 and improved by just one game the following year. The club took a hit in 2007, winning just 75 games and finishing last in the American League West, and jumped just four wins forward the following season.

    Since the middle of the 2006 season, however, Daniels and crew have been assembling what has turned into a modern day juggernaut -- or as much of one as we may see during times of much parity.

    Daniels acquired Nelson Cruz, this year's ALCS MVP and a consistent performer for the Rangers during their two-year run, before the trade deadline in July of '06. H...

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    News and Notes: October 14, 2011

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-10-14
    It isn't often that you see 100 on the radar gun, and it's even rarer when someone who has hit triple-digits -- repeatedly -- gets released before his 25th birthday and signs with almost no fanfare in August. You got both of these things, however, when the Seattle Mariners signed former Cincinnati Reds left-hander Philippe Valiquette on August 22, we learned from Shannon Drayer at 710 ESPN.

    Valiquette -- a product of Montreal and former youth teammate of ex-Mariners prospect Phillippe Aumont -- sits more in the 95-97 range, but he's struggled to miss bats at the professional level for a pitcher who throws as hard as he does -- 284 strikeouts in 386 innings pitched. The reasons are simple; the secondary stuff is well below-average, and neither the command nor control are up to major-league caliber.

    So why are we talking about Valiquette? Mainly because the guy can throw a fastball 100 miles per hour and isn't old enough for discounted car insurance yet. But the other reason is the M's will have to add him to the 40-man roster come December or risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft. There's a non-zero chance that a club would take a chance on the young Canadian missing a few bats based on sheer velocity while they try and teach him a 45 grade break...

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    Potential Target: Nick Swisher

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-12
    Over the next several weeks I will take an in-depth look at any and all potential targets for the Seattle Mariners this winter. Some won't be legitimate candidates at all, some will be, but they all need to be addressed since we don't know the thought process of the M's nor the other clubs that could be involved. We talked about New York Mets third baseman David Wright last week. Today, we'll tackle the idea of New York Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher.

    We're running on the assumption, it's worth noting, that Ichiro starts in right field and Franklin Gutierrez will be back and ready for the season.

    Subscribers can check out the file on Nick Swisher by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here.
    ...

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    Potential Target: David Wright

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-06
    I'll take an in-depth look at any and all potential targets for the Seattle Mariners over the next several weeks. Some won't be legitimate candidates at all, some will be, but they all need to be addressed since we don't know exactly what the M's are thinking, nor do we know the thought process of the other clubs that could be involved. Today, let's talk about David Wright and how he may or may not fit in with the M's and whether or not trading for him is possible and makes sense.

    David Wright is a well above-average third baseman, showing good lateral range to both sides with a rare ability to track slow rollers on the grass in front of him and to spring back like an outfielder and snare soft liners, shallow fly balls and foul pops. He's probably not quite the defender Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre are, but he's very good without a glaring weakness.

    Offensively, Wright has had five superb seasons in 7 1/2 years of big league service. He's posted an OPS+ of more than 130 during those five seasons, including 149 in 2007 and 141 in 2008. The past three seasons, however, Wright, who will be 29 this December, has shown signs of decline.

    Subscribers can check out the rest of the file on David Wright by
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    M's payroll

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-04
    The Seattle Mariners just completed their sixth losing season in eight years, with five of those resulting 90 losses or more. It was also their 11th consecutive year without a postseason berth. Clearly, the Seattle Mariners, a 95-loss club in 2011, have holes to fill as they look toward contention. In order to fill those vacancies they'll have to spend money, whether it's on a free agent or two or acquired a higher-salaried player via trade.

    Since payroll is a major factor, let's take a look at where the M's stand heading into the offseason.

    Subscribers can check out the M's payroll roundup by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and become one.


    ...

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    Arizona Fall League 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-10-03
    The Arizona Fall League means very little in terms of statistics, performance and certainly not game results. It's a place for young players to work on things, jump start their pro careers, face tougher competition and a place for the simple repetition factor.

    That doesn't mean it's not fun, however, and it is certainly a place to see a lot of good young players in one place. I won't be making the trip as I have too many other projects going on right now, but I will be checking in with scouts.

    The Seattle Mariners have seven representatives, four of them pitchers in right-handers Steven Hensley and Forrest Snow and lefties Brian Moran and Danny Hultzen.

    Hultzen has been throwing down in co-op and instructs, and by all accounts looks pretty good with his entire repertoire. The M's first-round pick and No. 2 overall will start Friday for the Peoria Javelinas in his first start as a professional. He's not likely to go more than two or three ininngs, but that workload should build up a bit in future starts.

    I've said for three years that I think Hensley has the stuff to pitch in the 6th or 7th inning in the big leagues, and he'll get a shot to show that against some decent competition in front of the brass of several organizations every...

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    Predicting the Postseason

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-30
    I originally chose Atlanta to drop the World Series to Boston -- that prediction was made way back in March when nobody knew what teams were going to look like -- but the postseason has begun, so let's start over.

    American League
    I like the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays in five games, though it's obviously not going to surprise me if the Rays win the series. They have the decided starting pitching edge and play the best defense in the big leagues.

    The winner of game 1 probably wins this series, in my opinion, and a key factor for Texas could be the MLB equivalent of a defense getting off the field on third down situations. No two-out rallies for the Rays or this may not get to five.

    I like the Detroit Tigers over the New York Yankees in five games, with Verlander winning the deciding game at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will score runs, but the Tigers' offense isn't chopped liver and the Bombers rotation is nothing to write home about after CC Sabathia, who could run into the Verlander buzz saw twice in the series.

    Alex Rodriguez may be the key for the Yankees.

    If I had to make an ALCS prediction now, I'd pick the Rangers over the Tigers, but that'd be a pick'em series for me and it could come down to which club, if any, gets to line of their rotation best.

    National League
    The two National League series could go quick, though I have the Milwaukee Brewers beating the Arizona Diamondbacks in four games. The D-...

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    Regular season playoffs

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-28
    The final day of the regular season means something for four teams, and always has an impact on the draft order.

    The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays enter Wednesday's finales tied for the wildcard lead in the American League and the same scenario surrounds the St. Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves in the National League.

    Not only are these games big, but big-game pitchers are going for the four teams involved. Jon Lester goes on short rest for Boston while Tampa sends David Price to the mound. Chris Carpenter is on the mound for the Cards and Tim Hudson is trying to pitch the Braves into the postseason.

    The Sox and Cardinals would appear to have the advantage, since they are playing versus the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros, two of the game's worst clubs. Neither of the two contenders have pitched well this month, however, leaving the games up for grabs.

    The Rays, however, are only playing the Baby Yankees, as the Bronx Bombers are lying down like little kids at nap time. Dellin Betances is making his first career start in the majors in this one, though I don't blame Joe Girardi at all for throwing Betances. The rest of the team is just playing like it doesn't matter, because, well, for them it doesn't.

    Draft order note: The tie-breaker rules on the draft order are not previous TWO years record, it's simply the previous season. So the M's will pick No. 3 next June regardless of what occurs Wednesday since the worst that c...

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    Battle of the left fielders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-21
    Left field has been a sinkhole in Seattle for years, and it goes back a lot further than the past handful of seasons that has seen dozens attempt to hold down the position.

    Ken Griffey, Junior manned center field for 11 seasons and played alongside 37 different left fielders between 1989 and 1999. Seven saw time in left in 2010 and 11 have played there this season -- seven have played more than 10 games there.

    Looking ahead to 2012, the Seattle Mariners could sign a free agent or make a trade in order to fill left field, but there are also legitimate candidates on the roster if all else fails. Let's take a glance.

    Mike Carp
    Carp is the best bat among the group, but is also the worst glove and probably belongs at first base. He's made progress defensively, however, and could still progress enough to become passable.

    Though it doesn't appear he belongs there regularly, despite the potential for quality offense, Carp may still end up playing plenty of left field in 2012.

    Trayvon Robinson
    Robinson still has holes at the plate and may not be truly ready for the show until mid-2012. He runs well, plays defense -- despite the small-sample-size metrics he's posted this year -- and has upside at the plate, especia...

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    Impact of the M's front office additions

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-19
    The Seattle Mariners have not only extended the contract of general manager Jack Zduriencik, they have promoted senior advisor Ted Simmons to special assistant to the general manager, and added catching coordinator Roger Hanson, former New York Mets GM Joe McIlvaine and former Pittsburgh Pirates executive Pete Vuckovich as special assistants.

    In short, adding these three will only help the club make sound decisions when it comes to player evaluations and market analysis, and adds decades of wisdom to the front office.

    McIlvaine came over from the Twins and drew a "this is a good guy to get," text from an assistant general manager of an NL club. He's a former right-handed pitcher in the Detroit Tigers organization.

    Simmons, a former big league catcher, was the GM of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1992 and 1993 and has spent time in player development with the St. Louis Cardinals. He was the bench coach for the Brewers in 2008 -- Zduriencik's final season in Milwaukee -- before serving in the role the next two years in San Diego.

    He has experience managing, scouting and in player development, and certainly knows catching.

    Vuckovich knows pitching and spent...

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    Prospects of the Year 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-15
    I've been doing this for nine years now, including the days back at InsidethePark.com. Not once in those nine years was there any real doubt about who the Seattle Mariners prospects of the year should be. There were years when one player simply outperformed another and hence won the award with a ton of debate, but this year is different.

    This season the top performers were also those believed to be the best prospects, which makes the job of choosing the prospects of the year a little more difficult.

    Having said that, I feel quite strong about the winners.

    Chris Crawford and I discussed these awards and built an All-Organization Prospect Team here in the latest PI Podcast.

    Players that have exhausted their rookie status by way of 130 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched, or have logged 45 or more days of service prior to September 1, are not eligible.

    Prospect of the Year: Vincent Catricala
    For me, this was a no-brainer. Catricala has done nothing but hit since being selected in the 10th round of the 2009 draft, and he proved in 62 games at Double-A Jackson that his explosion in the Cal League for the first half of the season.

    After mas...

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    Jack Zduriencik

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-13
    Prospect Insider is taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. Earlier PI profiled scouting director Tom McNamara and then took a look at the candidates to get some time in September. We also talked about Michael Saunders, the suits and ownership and Eric Wedge. Today, let's explore general manager Jack Zduriencik.

    The Seattle Mariners hired Jack Zduriencik after the 2008 season. The club had just gone five seasons without making the playoffs and lost 93-101 games in four of those five seasons under Bill Bavasi.

    Zduriencik came to Seattle with a plan and despite 187 losses the past two years, the executive is staying the course.

    "You've got to believe in what you are doing," Zduriencik said. "We have a plan and not...

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    What I'm watching for

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-09
    While winning is always the No. 1 goal of the big league club on a daily basis at the ballpark, it's not the most critical aspect of the final 19 games.

    Here is what is, at least for me, aside from the easy answer: Production from the young players

    This includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Blake Beavan, Charlie Furbush, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, Alex Liddi, Trayvon Robinson, Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, Josh Lueke, Dan Cortes, Chance Ruffin Tom Wilhelmsen and Casper Wells.

    Not all of them are going to perform well, but any progress shown and positive results between now and the end of the season is a good sight to see. The experience is valuable, but success is even better. Analysts will tell you that September statistics don't matter, but they are wrong.

    Sure, you can't take them at face value since so many clubs are using young pitchers and a lot of arms are tired, but they do matter. Watching the games to see how the player gathers those numbers -- good or bad -- is critical, however.

    Is Smoak hitting well from both sides of the plate?
    Smoak is 10-for-34 with two extra-base hits since returning from the disabled list, and has shown better bat speed, lending even more belief that his thumbs were hurting his performance before he broke his nose and hit the DL.

    Smoak simply needs to end the year on a positive note so he can get the bade taste of May-June-July out of his mouth for offseason.

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    Eric Wedge

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-08
    It's difficult to judge the talents of a field manager in the game of baseball. There is far too much that goes on in the clubhouse and between games that cannot be quantified to grade a skipper fairly. Having said that, we've seen good and bad this year from Eric Wedge.

    Wednesday night was a good example of one of the above.

    Newly-acquired left-hander Charlie Furbush, R-rated delivery and all, spun a 7-inning gem versus the red-hot Los Angeles Angels, yielding three hits and needing just 86 pitches to cling to a 1-0 lead as the bottom of the eighth inning began.

    Despite Furbush's lack of a big league track record as a starter, 86 pitches was an acceptable number to surpass in general terms. And sending him out there for the start of the inning wasn't the mistake made by Wedge. Keeping him in there once there was mass evidence that Furbush was tiring was not a mistake a good manager makes.

    Furbush had lost 2-3 mph off his fastball, wasn't throwing strikes and had the top of the order to deal with after getting Mike Trout to fly out.

    After Aybar singled, that should have been it. Furbush was at 91 pitches at that point -- and not only did he face pinch hitter Alberto Callaspo and walk him on four pitches, but he was also allowed to face Maicer Izturis.

    There are arguments coming in from the side of player development, but that fight holds not water in a 1-0 game, despite the team being out of contention. Testing the mettle of a young p...

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    M's suits to be commended

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-05
    Starting last week, Prospect Insider began taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. I'll also tackle the performance of GM Jack Zduriencik, whose contract was just extended Thursday. Tuesday, PI profiled scouting director Tom McNamara. Thursday I took a look at the candidates to get some time in September. Friday, we talked about Michael Saunders and his future in the organization. Today let's dive into the club's ownership group and its officers.

    For years now Chairman and CEO Howard Lincoln as well as team president and COO Chuck Armstrong have taken a beating from fans and occasionally the media for their decisions, commitment to winning baseball and their apparent involvement in the baseball decisions for the Seattle Mariners. I've written a few negative pieces to that effect myself.

    By all accounts available to us, the front office, above the general manager, h...

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    Michael Saunders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-02
    Starting this week, Prospect Insider is taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. I'll also tackle the performance of GM Jack Zduriencik, whose contract was just extended Thursday. Tuesday, PI profiled scouting director Tom McNamara. Thursday I took a look at the candidates to get some time in September. Today, let's talk about Michael Saunders.

    Like many talented baseball players, Michael Saunders put up numbers at every step of the minors. He hit at short-season Everett, struggled a bit as a 19-year-old in Class-A Wisconsin, but tore up the California League a year later and tasted Double-A West Tennessee the last few weeks of the 2007 season at age 20.

    He performed in the Southern League the following year despite shoulder problems and got his first taste of Triple-A baseball at age 21. The results were mixed, but he certainly had a clue and was far from overmatched.

    He lit up the PCL in 2009 -- .310/.378/.544 with 3...

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    September call-ups

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-09-01
    Starting this week, Prospect Insider is taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. I'll also tackle the performance of GM Jack Zduriencik, whose contract was just extended Thursday. Tuesday, PI profiled scouting director Tom McNamara. Today we'll take a look at the candidates to get some time in September.

    While some of them -- or even all of them -- won't be called upon until after the minor league seasons ends next weekend, there will be a few names called up in September. There probably isn't going to be many, however, as there are already a group of young players in the big leagues that need to continue to play.

    Sure things
    Catcher Chris Gimenez and right-hander Shawn Kelley are the only two that appear to be locks for me right now. Gimenez gives the club a third catcher, and Kelley's rehab season will end in the majors. He's looked solid of late in Tacoma and could be part of the bullpen coming out of spring training next year.

    Definitely nots
    Due to the lack of open spots, I don't see all of Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, Alex Liddi, Mike Wilson and Michael Saunders getting the call, and I'd be surprised if more than two were given any consideration.

    With Justin Smoak due back from the DL, there aren't eve...

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    M's move forward with McNamara

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-30
    Starting this week, Prospect Insider will be taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. I'll also tackle the contract status and performance of GM Jack Zduriencik. To start us off, let's take a look at the club's scouting director and the progress of the franchise's rebuilding effort, thanks to the draft.

    Three years ago this winter the Seattle Mariners asked Jack Zduriencik, and by extension his choice for Director of Scouting, to come in and rebuild the entire organization. And truly, it needed to be rebuilt from the ground up after a difficult and harshly unsuccessful handful of seasons under the previous guard.

    Zduriencik chose Tom McNamara as his scouting director, and while the rest is not quite history yet, a fruitful path is being laid out in front of the city of Seattle, and certainly appears to be a road that could very well lead the franchise back to the winner's circle.

    Over the past several years, the Seattle Mariners have selected Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe, Doug Fister and Eric O'Flaherty via the draft, signed them, developed them and got them ready to contribute regularly at the big league level.

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    The perfect example

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-30
    In the big leagues, managers like to see clean victories. Good pitching, sound defense and baserunning and some early offense to support the starter. For the Seattle Mariners, they received all of the above versus the Los Angeles Angels Monday night, a result that serves as the kind of game the club needs more of next season if they wish to have a shot at contending.

    In baseball, good clubs find consistencies that make a positive impact on victories. It's the Pitching Machine of results-based analysis.

    Mariners Payroll
    Last week, ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden wrote a piece on the payroll situations of each club in baseball. The Seattle Mariners, Bowden notes, have $7.65 million coming off the books due to the expiring contracts of infielders Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson.

    What Bowden does not mention, however, is that the payroll obligations from 2011 for both Carlos Silva and Milton Bradley also fall off the books, and including reasonable arbitration numbers for Brandon League, David Aardsma and Shawn Kelley, and the estimated near-minimums for the zero-to-three players, the club should have just under $80 million in commitments heading into the winter.

    They began the season with a payroll of about $95 million, if you include monies that went to other clubs for players no longer with S...

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    Campos making significant progress

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-26
    In June, right-hander Jose Campos was impressive in his first professional start, an outing I saw live and wrote about here.

    He's sustained that success throughout the short-season schedule, and I saw him one last time Thursday night in Everett. And boy has he improved.

    In June, Campos was sitting 92-96 mph with his fastball and had problems doing anything with his offspeed stuff. He threw strikes with the plus velocity, but didn't command the pitch well, despite getting good results.

    Thursday, en route to 12 strikeouts over eight stellar innings, Campos sat comfortably at 90-93 -- mostly 92, but touching 95 -- a velocity he held through his final fastball of the night. He threw 101 pitches -- 61 fastballs -- 67 for strikes. His curveball -- clocked in the 77-81 mph range -- was average to above average throughout, and he even flashed a couple of above-average changeups among several average editions.

    He appeared to have a feel for both pitches all night and was certainly comfortable throwing them. His changeup, thrown with solid arm speed, was generally in the 82-84 mph range.

    He threw the fastball on both sides of the plate with heavy armside ride and occasional sink on the gloveside half of the plate. He induced swings and misses with all three pitches and got called strikes on each as well, a critical development.

    Campos' ceiling remains the same as it did in June...

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    August Top 30

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-19
    The Final in-season top 30 is ready -- this one wasn't easy, as it's impossible to assess value to a player moving from shortstop to catcher when he's yet to play the position in games and when a good portion of those eligible have yet to play pro ball.

    That's what I am here for, however, and I think this turned out well.

    The August Top 30 is FREE for all and can be viewed by clicking here.

    I'll be chatting it up at 7PM PT Friday night, it's FREE for all. Yes, I'm in a giving mood. Click here for the chat.

    I also wanted to add following notes:

    The top three
    The top three are literally interchangeable. Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are each worthy of the top spot, but there are reasons why I went the direction I did. Much of those reasons include risk, probability, yet without ignoring upside as part of the equation.

    The second toughest job
    After trying to find a spot for Marcus Littlewood the toughest task this time around was pitting high school and college kids versus pros. The draftees have little pro experience if any at all, but simply trusted the scouts I talk to most as well as my own beliefs in terms of what is more valuable and how much risk is too much despite upside, and things of that nature.

    To clear that up, these rankings, in a vacuum, suggest that...

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    Grading the M's 2011 Draft

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-16
    Now that the smoke has cleared and we know the dollars attached to the talents -- and even more about the players -- let's review the 2011 draft class for the Seattle Mariners.

    Getting 43 of 51 picks signed is enormous, especially considering that the only pick in the top 23 rounds (24 total picks) that did not sign is power-hitting first baseman and third-round selection Kevin Cron, who instead will head to TCU.

    Danny Hultzen, LHP -- No. 2 overall
    No, I still would have much preferred the M's tab a higher-upside player such as Bubba Starling, Dylan Bundy or Francisco Lindor at No. 2 overall, but I maintain that the pick isn't a poor choice because Hultzen is so likely to produce in the big leagues, albeit at an abbreviated level somewhere south of star levels.

    The money Hultzen received -- $6.35 million bonus with $8.5 million guaranteed and a chance to guarantee himself more than $10 million -- doesn't change that assessment, as he received a very similar deal to Dustin Ackley, the No. 2 pick two years ago, plus a small inflation percentage on top.

    Hultzen is likely to see the majors in a hurry, too, with April of next season not out of the question. Yes, it's possible that Hultzen never pitches in the minors.

    Considering the upside, risk versus probability factors, the dollars involved and what else the club could have had, it'd be easy to plant a C grade on the selection, but because I believe there is a good chance Star...

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    Signing Deadline

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-15
    Monday at 8:59 PM PT is the deadline for the Seattle Mariners and the rest of baseball to get their draft picks under contract. The M's have 39 of 51 players already inked to deals, and a few of them are already making strong impressions in pro ball.

    The biggest three are still unsigned, however, including No. 2 overall pick Danny Hultzen, second rounder Brad Miller, a shortstop from Clemson, and third-round choice Kevin Cron, who has already enrolled at TCU and began living on Campus last week.

    Hultzen will get done, don't worry about that. And the $13 million rumors? Well, unless it's the biggest botch job a negotiation session has ever seen, that number will not come into play. Trevor Bauer, the No. 3 pick, received $7 million guaranteed -- $3.4 million of that in signing bonuses.

    I expect Hultzen to get more than that, but not near $13 million. My best guess would be somewhere between $8 million and $9 million, with a chance of $10 if the club goes five years on a big league deal -- and it will be a big league contract.

    Miller shouldn't cost much more than slot, and the No. 62 pick a year ago, Michigan outfielder Ryan Lamarre, received $587, 700 from the Cincinnati Reds. Pick 61, however, received $800,000, so it's possible Miller gets more than the slot recommended range, it's just not likely to hit seven figures, barring another horrible negotiation process.

    Cron wants first round money to sign -- I'd pay him, I think he's worth $1.2-1...

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    Scouting notes from the NYPL

    By: Andrew H. Martin on 2011-08-13
    The New York Penn League is the east-coast equivalent to the Northwest League and often houses a number of solid prospects, and even some potential stars. This year is no different, so Prospect Insider employed Andrew H. Martin to scout it out and see what the buzz was all about.

    Garin Cecchini, a high school shortstop, was poised to become a first-round pick last June after a standout amateur career that included a star performance on the under-18 national team. Unfortunately he blew out his ACL and slipped to the fourth round. Boston gave him a $1.3 million dollar signing bonus anyway and moved him to third base, literally banking on him returning from the injury and putting pressure on the kid's bat to carry him to the big leagues.

    After missing all of 2010, the 20-year-old Cecchini is being eased into professional baseball with Lowell this season.

    The left-handed hitter's bat is by far his best tool at this point, and the most advanced. He has been hitting well all year, putting up a, .298/.398/.500 triple-slash in 32 games. His hitting coach, Rich Gedman, told me that "he has a very good approach to hitting. He has a middle approach, a middle-away approach. He trusts his hands enough that he doesn't have to pull balls. He stays inside the bal...

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    M's sign Capps

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-09
    The Seattle Mariners have agreed to terms with third-round pick Carter Capps, according to multiple sources, and as reported by Dan Popko of Cape Cod Times. Heads up to Lonnie Mathis for alerting me of the rumblings so I could wake up and look for confirmation.

    Capps left the Cape over the weekend.

    Capps, a right-handed pitcher from Mount Olive College in North Carolina, is another find by the M's in that area, thanks to area scout and Pulaski manager Rob Mummau.

    Capps, I'm told, will receive "second round dough," which could be as low as $400k and high as about $800k. Mathis heard the number $500k, which sounds about right.

    Capps is a physical right-hander with four pitches, including both a two-seam fastball and the four-seam variety. He also has a slider of which he likes to vary the velocity and a changeup that needs work.

    As John Birtwell of ESPN Insider wrote last week, Capps attacks the botton portion of the strike zone.

    There are still questions on his future role, but he's another above-average arm added to the system....

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    What Wily Mo Does

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-08-05
    When the Seattle Mariners picked up Wily Mo Pena late last month one thing was for sure -- he'd continue to hit moon shots, and strike out, and walk. He's done that with the Tacoma Rainiers, hitting a long ball in his first plate appearance with the organization -- that went an estimated 438 feet and he didn't even get all of it -- and he blasted two in Albuquerque Thursday (Alex Liddi hit THREE).

    Pena is likely to see the big leagues sometime this season -- if for nothing more than to marvel at his batting practice sessions, which are pretty epic and worth the price of admission.

    While I don't see more than a platoon DH role for Pena at the big league level, I'm here to tell you there is more to Pena than meets the eye. He has a reputation of being a pretty good teammate, a solid individual and the source of some serious humor.

    I give you Exhibit A:

    Last week when Tacoma Rainiers intern Cam went to pick up Pena at the airport, they had a nice baseball conversation on the way from the airport to the ballpark. The discussion escalated from general pleasantries and the typical inquiries from Cam and became about pitchers falling behind in counts.

    At some point in that talk of a pitcher getting behind in the count, Pena, a behemoth of a man at 6-foot-3 and 265 pounds, turned to Cam, who was driving, looked him in the eye and with his thick Dominican accent said:

    "I crush fastball."

    And that was the end of that discussion.

    ...

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    Robinson video, plus notes

    By: Adam Staloch on 2011-08-01
    Game Video on Trayvon

    Twenty-three year old outfielder Trayvon Robinson will make his debut in the Seattle Mariners organization Monday at Cheney Stadium, and the switch-hitter took some batting practice and shagged a few fly balls before the game.

    The PI contingent was in attendance and I snagged some video. It's not cage-side, as the Rainiers have a new regulation against media standing against the batting cage, but the video at least gives you an idea of what the player is like physically and somewhat athletically.

    As Jason A. Churchill tweeted earlier, Robinson is in the starting lineup, playing center field and batting sixth. He'll wear No. 24, though that will be short-lived once he gets the nod to the big leagues.

    Couple of notes from Churchill before we get to the video:

    Chance Ruffin, likely to be the player to be named later in the trade with the Detroit Tigers -- a conclusion came to by process of elimination through conversations I have had with sources not employed by any club -- is a fastball-slider reliever who sits 92-95 mph with the heater, which is up a tick or two from his days at Texas where he generally maxed out at 93 and pitched at 89-92. There is also more movement now, including some sink, and he's touched 96. The slider is showing at 82-85 mph and looks...

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    Scouting the haul for Bedard

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-31
    The Seattle Mariners completed a buzzer-beating three-team trade with the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday afternoon, sending left-hander Erik Bedard and right-hander Josh Fields to the American League East leaders.

    In return, the M's received two outfielders in Chih-Hsien Chiang from the Red Sox and Trayvon Robinson from the Dodgers.

    Subscribers can check out the scouting reports and MLB ETAs on both by clicking here.

    Become a subscriber by clicking here.

    The only other place you will find any of my in-depth analysis without becoming a subscriber is on the air with Ian Furness Monday afternoon on 950 KJR. If you want the details, subscribe now....

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    M's deal Bedard, Fields for two OF

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-31
    The Seattle Mariners have traded left-hander Erik Bedard to the Boston Red Sox along with right-handed reliever Josh Fields in return for outfield prospects Travyon Robinson from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chih-Hsien Chiang from the Boston Red Sox.

    This is now official.

    Certainly a good deal for Seattle. Scouting reports on the M's haul coming later this evening. In the meantime, follow Prospect Insider on Twitter for updates to this story, and all kinds of banter, including me getting irritated at people for reporting tweets to me and pretending I am claiming to be reporting news....

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    M's rumor mill still churning

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-31
    UPDATE: 10:22 AM PT
    The talks between the Mariners and Cardinals for Erik Bedard "have escalated" according to sources, but no deal is yet considered imminent. With less than three hours to go, something will have to happen quickly.

    Also, M's still getting calls on relievers and Adam Kennedy. There is a pretty good chance something pops.

    The M's are not involved in talks with the Rockies for Ian Stewart, I am told, and it appears Brandon League is truly going nowhere this summer.


    As Saturday flipped to Sunday there were several developments that lead me, and a handful of sources within the league, to believe the Seattle Mariners could make at least one more trade before the 1PM PT deadline Sunday afternoon.

    "I could see a few," one source said. "They have more pieces clubs would like to have."

    Those pieces include closer Brandon League, left-hander Erik Bedard, right-handed relievers Chris Ray and Jamey Wright and infielder Adam Kennedy. Lefty Jason Vargas may be completely off the market -- barring an offer GM Jack Zduriencik cannot refuse -- with Doug Fister being dealt Saturday.

    Subscribers can check out what possibilities there still are with Bedard and why he's still a valuable commodity for contenders -- possibly enough to land a worthy package -- and what would make the M's change their mind on dealing League, by clicking here.

    Become a s...

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    M's acquire four for Fister, Pauley

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-30
    The Seattle Mariners have traded right-handers Doug Fister and David Pauley to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for three players. The return package of left-hander Charlie Furbush, outfielder Casper Wells and third base prospect Francisco Martinez is a solid one, with Wells being the key ingredient but he's a potential big-league ready bat that can play left field.

    Subscribers can check out the scouting report on the three players coming to Seattle by clicking here.

    Become a subscriber by clicking here....

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    2011 M's Rumor Mill

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-28
    UPDATE: July 30 @8:22 AM PT With the M's trading RHP Doug Fister to the Detroit Tigers for Charlie Furbush and Casper Wells, it looks like Jason Vargas is off the table for now. We'll have scouting reports on Wells and Furbush later today.

    UPDATE: July 29 @3:22 PM PT Hints that Bedard is Red Sox No. 1 target and what Boston could offer, plus the Tigers' pursuit of M's pitchers -- what does Detroit have to give up? Click Here.

    To become a subscriber, Click Here.

    UPDATE: July 28 @10:14 AM PT The M's are getting a lot of interest in their starting pitchers, including contenders stepping up their intrigue on Bedard.

    UPDATE: July 28 @1:14 AM PT Word on a potentially-killed 3-way deal, new developments on M's trade plans and sources and I converge on the M's process. Click Here.

    UPDATE: July 25 @ 05:11PM PT Notes on other potential matches for M's trade bait, plus League's chances to get dealt and a potential outfield target for the Mariners. Click Here.

    UPDATE: July 24 @ 12:14PM PT The M's are requesting specifics...

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    Drastic, yes, not reactionary, silly

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-27
    The Seattle Mariners have lost 17 games in a row. True. They have fallen into last place in the 4-team American League West. True. They are now 15 games behind the Texas Rangers in the loss column and have once again set a record-threatening pave of offensive futility. True. As a result, they should now plan on raising payroll into the $130 million-plus range or higher, change their stance on trading Felix Hernandez and should fire Eric Wedge and Jack Zduriencik. False.

    Felix Hernandez
    The argument for trading Hernandez makes sense on the surface -- he's worth a ton and his value may never be higher, and the return could very well fill more than one hole in the club's everyday lineup -- but if Hernandez is traded, for example, sometime between today and the start off the 2012 season, all of a sudden an unproven Michael Pineda and two No. 4 starters in Jason Vargas and Doug Fister have to carry the workload and lead the staff. Do the M's win consistently then? Of course not.

    The time to seriously consider trading Hernandez may very well come in the next 12-36 months, at which time the club's GM, whoever it is at the time, will be charged with one of the most difficult tasks in franchise history. But that time is now now.

    If the Mariners wish to add impact offensive players, it has to come largely by trade, since hitters don't generally want to come to Seattle with it's weather and travel or play at Safeco. For the first time in more than three ye...

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    M's to add new catching prospect

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-26
    The Seattle Mariners are planning to -- or at least strongly considering -- converting shortstop prospect Marcus Littlewood to catcher, according to a source of ESPN Insider's Keith Law, and I have been able to confirm.

    I have no word on when such a transition might take place, but I imagine instructs this fall is when that will begin if the club follows through with the idea.

    Littlewood has the arm strength, hands, athleticism and overall sturdy, durable build to make a successful conversion, though it's a risky decision for the Mariners, as the chance for injury and theft of athleticism attempting to become a catcher could rob Littlewood of a chance to play shortstop, third base or even the outfield.

    Basically, it's a move you make permanently if it's a move you make at all. The club could simply be planning on seeing how he looks in workouts over the offseason before making a final determination on where he plays positionally come next spring.

    As far as what this might do to Littlewood's prospect value, well, if he can catch, naturally, his value improves. It takes pressure off his bat, too, which means he doesn't have to hit as much to be an impact player in the big leagues, but it also likely pushes back his timetable to the big leagues....

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    M's Rumor Mill 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-23
    UPDATE: July 25 @ 05:11PM PT Notes on other potential matches for M's trade bait, plus League's chances to get dealt and a potential outfield target for the Mariners. Click Here.

    UPDATE: July 24 @ 12:14PM PT The M's are requesting specifics in return for their pitchers, and it's all about hitting, catching.

    UPDATE: July 23 @ 2:02PM PT Another club linked to M's arms. What can that club offer Seattle?

    It's that time of year again and so many possibilities cloud any kind of strong predictions -- it's a mess, as usual -- but the Seattle Mariners are again at the center of a ton of potential deals.

    I'll update here on the rumors page with time stamps whenever I hear something or have additional intel on a report by a reliable source such as ESPN's Buster Olney, Jerry Crasnick or Jayson Stark, or the guys from FOXSports.com, who are really good at collecting notes on potential moves.

    As we hit the weekend -- a week from the deadline -- there are simply a ton of potential moves with no clear deal ready to be made. Last year we all knew Cliff Lee was getting moved at some point. This year it's feasible, though unlikely, that Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik stands pat.<...

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    M's catching prospects

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-25
    If you haven't heard already, or seen the boxscore from Sunday's game, the Seattle Mariners have signed 16th-round pick Jack Marder, a catcher from the University of Oregon. Word is they gave Marder $200,000 -- a freaking steal, if you ask me. He signed a little over a week ago, spent a little time down in Peoria to get ready to play and started Sunday for High Desert, going 2-for-3 with a double.

    I've been wanting an excuse to write about Mike Dowd, who has been gunning down baserunners for Everett -- a very impressive 65 or 70 grade arm with tremendous accuracy, foot quickness and technique -- though he lacks offensive upside.

    John Hicks, the Mariners' 4th-round pick, is playing at Class-A Clinton.

    Marder, a converted infielder, is somewhat inexperienced behind the plate but was a draft-eligible sophomore so he had leverage, making the signing a very good one. He played infield in high school and both first base and the outfield at Oregon in 2010, before getting time at catcher this past spring.

    He's not consistent, but that will have to come with reps, something he will get plenty of the rest of this summer, though I would not be surprised if they make sure he gets at-bats without wearing him out behind the dish in the desert.

    Fifth rounder Tyler Marlette is next on the list, but he has a chance to go to school -- Central Florida -- and improve his draft stock up into the top few rounds, so it may take twice what Marder received to get hi...

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    Sanchez, Figgins, League, Kennedy

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-21
    The Seattle Mariners have signed Venezuelan right-hander Victor Sanchez, reports Ben Badler, and many of you asked me to comment on the kid.

    First of all, I haven't seen but 30 seconds of video on him, so nothing you read from here on out is my own opinion. Second, the scouts I did catch up to to ask about Sanchez wanted him badly, and may have undersold the kid's abilities. Sort of.

    "He's as polished as you can expect a 16-year-old pitcher with that kind of stuff to be," said one scout whose club bowed out long before Sanchez the July 2 deadline due to bonus demands. "There's now-velocity that plays, the delivery is good and he's a good athlete, and that helps him stay consistent on the mound as well as field his position."

    Another scout, whose club appears to have been in it until the dollars went above $3 million, calls Sanchez's slider "a good pitch that will get inexperienced bats out," but he mentioned that Sanchez drops his arm on the pitch, giving it away and sometimes leaving it up in the zone.

    He also throws a changeup and brings pitching smarts to the mound. Badler reports that Sanchez also played right field and could hit a little, too, but was only a big prospect because he touched 94 mph from the hill.

    "I've seen him 92-93," the first scout said. "At this age that's enough to get some attention. But I think he could pitch (in the states) right away, he handles himself very well out there."

    Without having seen Sanchez and...

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    Updated Top 30

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-18
    When the mid-season Top 30 was released less than three weeks ago, I felt pretty good about it. I'd seen a significant amount of video on those I hadn't seen live and spent hours crosschecking my evaluations with talent evaluators.  At the time, however, the short-season clubs had just 10 days under their belts, the Seattle Mariners had signed just one of their top 10 draft picks and a handful of those considered for the final list were either coming off injury, or had been recently promoted and hadn't been seen much in their new digs.

    Now it's been nearly a month since the short-season affiliates began their schedule, the promoted few have more than two weeks worth of games in at their new level and a few draft picks have put their names on the dotted line, opening up door for a legitimate re-ranking. Many of this comes from my day trip to Peoria last weekend and a good look at some of the kids in the rookie league, where two scouts from AL clubs were planning on writing up the M's kids as one of the best groups of prospects the league has seen in the past two or three seasons.

    Subscribers can get the updated list, which includes numerous changes from the mid-season report on June 30, by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and become an Insider....

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    Five trades for the M's

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-10
    I haven't heard the M's specifically linked to any bat, though there's been plenty of speculation about adding upgrades, despite those upgrades being fringe regulars in their own right.

    Let's take a look at five trades the Seattle Mariners might be able to make. Remember, I'm not suggesting the trade partner is interested in the M's player we're riffing about, and I'm not suggesting they'd be willing to part with the players listed below as coming back to Seattle.

    What I am suggesting is that there is some logic to such transactions, and I have bounced these off some high-ranking scouts for cross-reference purposes.

    Sitting 7 1/2 games back, it appears Seattle will have to sell, if anything, but there is time left for them to change that, and Zduriencik could make some lateral moves.

    Subscribers can check out the five suggested trades by clicking here.

    To gain access, including one-time premium access for just $1.50, 3-months of access for $11.00, 6-month subscriptions at $21.00 and annual subscriptions st just $36.00 click here and become a subscriber.

    ...

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    Scouting Notebook: 07.08.11

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-08
    I had a little left over from Wednesday's Prospect Intel and took a trip with Adam Staloch to Triple-A Tacoma to check out the relief arms. We lucked out and saw both Josh Fields and Josh Lueke. More on the two right-handers in a bit.

    Before we get to the notes, I promised a "what to expect from Kyle Seager," so let's get to that just as he starts Game No.2 of his big league career.

    Seager gets unfairly compared to Dustin Ackley because both are caucasians, infielders and left-handed hitters. And while there are some legit similarities in their games, they are far more different than they are the same.

    Seager is a little shorter, slightly sturdier in frame, and his stroke at the plate is more designed for contact. His hands and wrists aren't as strong and quick and he also doesn't run as well as his college teammate.

    But he does have a better throwing arm and better defensive instincts and will be more than fine playing third base. Judging from what I saw in spring training, I think Seager is a lot like a young Adam Kennedy as a defensive second baseman.

    He will drive the ball some and isn't completely without some pop; he'll occa...

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    Prospect Intel: 07.06.11

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-06
    The Seattle Mariners farm system did something this week that I did not think was possible: They got more interesting.

    The club signed sixth-round pick James Zamarripa, a sturdily-built, left-handed hiting outfielder from Rancho Cucamonga, California, and he's been assigned to the Peoria roster in the Arizona Rookie League. But wait, there's more.

    Felipe Burin, who just missed the cut in the Mid-season Top 30, was brought to the states this week and will debut for Peoria Wednesday night. He's 19, a switch hitter and will man mostly second base, though he will see some time at third base, too.

    He was tearing up the Venezuelan Summer League, hitting .381/.460/.538 and profiles similarly to Albert Callaspo; a solid hit tool with gap power.

    He's stronger from the left side than he is from the right -- which is better than the opposite -- and throws well, so playing third is not a problem defensively.

    Bob Engle recently saw him in the VSL and recommended the club bring him stateside.

    Update on Nick Franklin
    Franklin was rehabbing from the bat-to-the-jaw incident when he fell ill, possibly food poisoning, setting him back a few days. He's likely to get back on the field early next week.

    When I asked Player Development...

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    What to expect from Blake Beavan

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-07-02
    For the first time all season the Seattle Mariners will have someone other than their Opening Day starting rotation take the mound Sunday when right-hander Blake Beavan makes his major league debut.

    Beavan earned the right by righting the ship in Triple-A Tacoma since a poor start at home versus Memphis on May 20, up until his most recent outing in hitter-friendly Las Vegas versus a good hitting lineup.

    In those six starts, Beavan allowed just eight earned runs on 38 hits in 39 innings of work, walking nine and punching out 32.

    Let's talk about what the M's can expect from the right-hander acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers.

    Background
    Beavan was the Rangers' first-round pick in 2007 -- 17th overall -- after touching the mid-90s as a high school senior. He immediately showed durability, making 23 starts and logging 121 2/3 innings the following season and then surpassing 160 frames the following season.

    Physical
    Beavan stands 6-foot-7 and is listed at 240 pounds -- he may be 250, but he's not a poorly condition athlete. He's sturdiest between his thighs and chest but strong from head to toe.

    For a rather large pitcher, he does get off the mound and field his position well, showin...

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    M's Mid-season Top 30

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-30
    It's mid-season in the minor leagues which means it's time for the Seattle Mariners mid-season Top 30 Prospect Report. This year I have changed things a little bit.

    Rather than offer a short write-up of each player ranked, we'll have a chat for all of that Thursday night at 7 PM PT. The chat is FREE for everyone and can be accessed by clicking here.

    Subscribers can click here for the Top 30 Prospect Rankings and click here for a breakdown Top 5s; Top 5 prospects at each level, top 5 pitchers, top 5 corner bats, etc.

    If you are not yet a subscriber and would like access to the mid-season Top 30 on top of the regular benefits of premium access, click here.

    We'll cover the question of where the draft picks would rank should they sign in the chat....

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    Scouting Jose Campos, RHP

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-25
    Since late last season there has been some buzz about right-hander Jose Campos, who reportedly touched 96 mph on the radar gun down in the Venezuelan Summer League. He fed that buzz this spring when he touched 98 in a number of bullpen sessions, though sitting 95-plus is much different than touching 98 in a bullpen session.

    In his first start with Short-season Everett, he hit 100 mph on the stadium gun, which likely means 97-99. Clearly, Campos has big-time arm strength, but there have been no reports on everything else.

    Until now.

    Subscribers can check out the scouting report and video on Campos by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and make it happen....

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    Franklin, Seager promoted

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-22
    The Seattle Mariners have promoted SS Nick Franklin to Double-A Jackson and 2B Kyle Seager to Triple-A Tacoma Wednesday.

    Have fun with this one.

    The M's feel Franklin will respond well to the challenge of the promotion, and Seager was clearly ready for the move.

    Watch out for Seager as a third base option for the short term later this summer. He can play there, and is as good as Ackley or better at second.

    UPDATE: I don't know what the club's exact plan is for Franklin and Triunfel in Jackson, but something has to give and it shouldn't be Franklin's future at the shortstop position. He'll surely play second with Seager in Tacoma now, but Triunfel should move off shortstop, at least primarily.

    While he often displays the range to play the position, there are still far too many throwing errors and fundamental mistakes to keep him at short over Franklin.

    I'd split Franklin's time 70-30; 70 percent at shortstop. Triunfel, I'd move him to third base, with some time at second as well.
    ...

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    Farm System Roundup

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-21
    In lieu of a full Prospect Intel this week, I have to cut it short because I'm working on the 2012 Draft and the Mid-season Top 30.

    So let's get right to it ...

    Still not hearing a lot of good things on Dennis Raben, despite the fact that he's putting up really good numbers in High Desert. The strikeouts are a concern, and that's going to be a theme in this edition, because ...


    ... same goes for Nick Franklin, who isn't wowing anyone in the Cal League. I'm not worried about his long-term future at this point, nor do I think there needs to be some sort of position change, but until we start seeing more consistent at bats and better contact rates -- anything north of 20 percent is prohibitive for a middle infielder -- he's going to stay in High Desert.

    James Jones is lost at the plate, and I haven't heard a good explanation why. I'll see the Mavs in mid-July, so perhaps I will see something or get some video to study the matter.

    Monday was Opening Night for the Peoria Mariners of the Arizona Rookie League and Phillips Castillo, the top prospect on the roster, went 3-for-5 with two doubles. Martin Peguero, formerly known as Esteilon, his middle name, took the donut in four trips to the plate. Another name to watch in this lineup is Alfredo Morales, a left-handed hitting outfielder whom the club likes a lot more than they originally let on two summers ago.

    According to scouts, Rich Poythress cannot cover the plate, hit good fastballs...

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    Thoughts on Ackley's debut

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-18
    NOTE: Click here for the roster for the M's rookie league club in Peoria.

    I'll make this quick, but it's pretty, it's so pretty.

    Dustin Ackley went 1-for-4 Friday versus Philadelphia, singling off Roy Oswalt in his first trip to the plate. He made a handful of plays in the field and the M's won 4-1.

    But there's more. A lot more.

    His single came after Oswalt, an experienced, above-average starting pitcher, worked the count 0-2. Ackley, whose heart rate probably never gets above 70, calmly poked a single through Oswalt's wickets and into center for the hit.

    For those that thought he had the jitters, and judging by tweets and texts sent to Root Sports during the game many of you thought that, you're wrong. Ackley doesn't get the jitters. Why not? Because hitting and playing baseball is what he does.

    He hit a ball fairly hard to center in his second PA for a flyout and lined out to the first baseman the next time up. He'd fly out again in his final at-bat, but it was a play he made in the eighth inning in the field that made Ackley's night.

    He'd already made a few routine plays, but with one on and nobody out in the eighth and the M's up 4-1 and Aaron Laffey on the hill, Ackley's turn of the double play feed from Chone Figgins to force Carlos Ruiz at second and nail Jimmy Rollins at first was a thing of beauty, and a showing of not only impressive athletici...

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    What to expect from Dustin Ackley

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-16
    It's the most anticipated prospect call-up for the Seattle Mariners since 2005 when King Felix Hernandez forged his way into the big leagues at age 20, but Dustin Ackley has been recalled and will make his major league debut -- presumably -- Friday versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

    Ackley had been lighting the PCL in flames since April turned to May and in case you missed my Ackley stats rant on Twitter ...

    Since May 6:

    39 G, .373/.474/.610, 13-2B, 3-3B, 6-HR, 30-BB, 18-K, two errors. One error was Wednesday, the other was back on May 6. 60 hits, 30 walks (only one of those intentional) equals 90 times reaching bases in 39 games.

    Versus LHP for the season: .299/.415/.545

    All of those numbers, however, are minor league statistics and now mean zilch. Ackley has to prove they aren't a fluke by figuring things out in the big leagues.

    While he's an ideal No. 1 or 2 hitter, I expect Eric Wedge to go the route of a soft landing for awhile and bat Ackley in the No. 7, 8 or 9 hole, but I don't believe sticking him in the 6-hole is out of the question, nor is batting him behind Ichiro.

    He's going to play second base, and he won't wow anyone defensively, and he's not going to come up and hit .372 with a .600 slugging pe...

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    M's on the brink

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-15
    As well as the Seattle Mariners have been pitching their way to a respectable number of victories this season -- more at this point that than most believed -- one thing remains clear: the Mariners need more offense. I contend, however, that they need a lot more offense if they are stay in contention all season.

    Sure, I would hit up any number of us casinos and bet that Felix Hernandez would turn it up a notch the rest of the way, and I have no reason to believe Erik Bedard will fall off the planet, though I feel much less confident about that with his injury history. Expecting Michael Pineda to keep up this Cy Young pace, however, is asking too much.

    I'm not suggesting he will fall on his face, but requiring him to be a No. 1 all year is unrealistic. He's going to hit some bumps, moreso than Hernandez, perhaps even Bedard. Pineda is also not likely to make 30-plus starts this season, since that would certainly push him over 190 innings, maybe even over 200, something in early September, so the club may push him back aggressively in the second half or perhaps even shut him down.

    He's never thrown more than the 139 1/3 frames he threw last season and he's on pace for just under 200 at his current clip. Something will have to give at some point.

    Calling up Dustin Ackley is not the solution -- it can be part of it, but left field or third base needs a tune, and I'm not s...

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    Everett Roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-14
    The Everett AquaSox, who start their season this week and open up at home next Wednesday, have announced their roster to start the 2011 season.

    Pitchers
    Tony Butler, LHP -- Yes, that Tony Butler. He was signed after Baltimore released him earlier this season.
    Jason Buursma, RHP
    Jose Campos, RHP
    Jeroen De Haas, RHP
    Nolan DIaz, RHP
    Joe Dirocco, RHP
    Tim Griffin, RHP
    Cameron Hobson, LHP
    Stephen Landaruzi, RHP
    Bryan Leigh, RHP
    Jordan Shipers, LHP
    Cody Weiss, RHP
    Bennett Whitmore, LHP

    Catchers
    Larry Gonzalez
    Billy Marcoe

    Infielders
    Jetsy Extrano
    Marcus Littlewood
    Danny Lopez
    Ethan Paquette
    Rudy Van Heydoorn (OF)

    Outfielders
    James Wood
    Mario Yepez
    ...

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    Ramblings

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-13
    This is kind of like ESPN.com's Jayson Stark and his "Rumblings and Grumblings" column, except I will ramble, instead. Make sense?

    I want to see Mike Carp, Adam Kennedy, Jack Cust and Justin Smoak in the lineup at the same time, even now with Dustin Ackley still in Triple-A Tacoma.

    I can't think of a good reason to use Carp and Cust in an either/or scenario when Carp isn't going to be exposed in left field on every play and he can be replaced late in the game on defense by Greg Halman if the M's have a lead ...

    Mauricio Robles has been activated, if you haven't heard already, and I'd bet on him getting back to Tacoma by the end of the month. He will start out in High Desert, however, so the numbers could be ugly early on because he pitches up in the zone and the league is a joke ...

    Speaking of High Desert, Dennis Raben hit three bombs Sunday and took over the minor league lead in RBI, garnering him a lot of national attention. I'm still not hearing glowing things about Raben and it appears he's just beating up inferior pitching. He needs to be challenged with a promotion to Jackson soon, as does Vincent Catricala, who has markedly improved his contact rates and will be on the mid-season Top 30 as a result ...

    I don't know when Dustin Ackley is getting called up. if I knew, I'd say something. Monday (today) makes sense, but Friday after Tacoma gets back from its long road trip also makes sense and Seattle is at home this weekend versus Phila...

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    M's Draft Report Card

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-11
    Podcast Alert: Click here for the Draft Recap Episode

    The dust has cleared as we enter day five since the Seattle Mariners made the No. 2 overall selection in the 2011 First-Year Players Draft. I've made several calls, sent several texts and emails and gathered as much info as I possibly could on all 51 players the club selected this week so I could complete the analysis, and as a result, here's the Draft Report Card.


    Round 1 (No. 2)
    Selecting Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen this high appears to be an attempt to get a solid player with high probability into the system, despite the lack of star upside. The M's passed on potential superstar talents in RHP Dylan Bundy, CF Bubba Starling and star-level talents such as SS Francisco Lindor.

    If the club wants to win championships they need championship players, superstars, at least one or two that play regularly and they simply do not have that in the entire organization right now. They had a shot to add that Monday, but steered clear.

    One thing to remember is that there is a chance that Starling or Bundy would have been the pick but the club didn't get good indications that the player would sign for what they were willing to spend. And those indications could have been given for many reasons, including driving up the price to get as much money as possible, or scaring off the Mariners so the player gets to a team more...

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    Draft Wrap 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-09
    The Seattle Mariners selected 51 players in the First-Year Player's Draft this week, and we're here to give you a better idea of how the club did and about those players selected.

    Danny Hultzen will not go down as a major bust for the M's, barring injury which can't be blamed on the club, and while I, and many talent evaluators, graded a number of other players ahead of the left-hander, he's not the worst pick of the draft for the M's, nor is he the best. For all those connotations, including the best of the class, read on.

    Subscribers can check out the Best Tools among the M's 2011 Draft Class by clicking here.

    If you aren't a subscriber, click here and choose an option to become an Insider today.

    Friday night we'll hand out grades in the Draft Report Card....

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    Scouting Day 2

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-08
    The Seattle Mariners made 30 selections Tuesday and while we're all still recovering from the shock of pick No. 2, the club has been busy, so let's catch up with them.

    Subscribers can check out the full scouting reports on second rounder Brad Miller and third-round pick Kevin Cron (hint, potential plus-plus tool), and reports on a number of the club's Day 2 selections, by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and become one.

    Final grades will come later this week, as well as my choices for best pick, worst pick, quickest to the big leagues, the class' best tools and an overall analysis of the club's draft as well as how they fit among the other clubs in the American League West.

    ...

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    Draft Day 2

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-07
    The M's followed up the Danny Hultzen selection by taking Clemson SS Brad Miller in round 2 and prep first baseman Kevin Cron in the third round.

    Miller isn't a future shortstop but has plus makeup and can hit some.

    Cron has big raw power but is a bat only as he profiles as a 1B/DH. He is the younger brother of first rounder C.J. Cron....

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    Scouting Danny Hultzen, LHP

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-07
    The Seattle Mariners shocked the baseball world Monday, passing on three position players and selecting left-hander Danny Hultzen with the No. 2 overall selection. Most analysts -- and even other clubs -- had the M's on Rice 3B Anthony Rendon and Gardner-Edgerton (Kan.) High School centerfielder Bubba Starling, and I had them on Montverde Academy (Fla.) shortstop Francisco Lindor until a half hour before the pick was made.

    But what did the M's get in Hultzen? Here's a profile and scouting report with the aide of an NL area scout and a crosschecker from and NL Central club.

    Subscribers can download the original scouting report in Word form by clicking here and then clicking the file name.

    The M's draft is far from done, however, and regardless of whether or not anyone buys Hultzen as the No. 2 pick -- I do not -- pick No. 62 comes early Tuesday and there will be legitimate big-league talent in rounds two and three, and perhaps beyond.

    Let's take a look at the best players available.

    1. Josh Bell, LF -- Dallas Jesuit HS (Texas)
    Bell is considered an extremely difficult sign that could take Top 5-10 money to forego college.
    2. Andrew Susac, C -- Oregon State<...

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    2011 Draft: Day 1

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-06

    UPDATE: Why it was Hultzen ...

    The day has finally come. It's Day 1 of the 2011 MLB Draft, otherwise known as the First-Year Players Draft or, more technically, the Rule 4 draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners will get the events under way as they select the first two of 60 picks on the initial day.

    To follow the day's rumors, buzz and other notes, subscribers can click here.

    The latest draft notes through Sunday can be found here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here to join the rest of the insiders.

    Starting at 12 Noon PT, ALL READERS can chat about the draft with each other all while keeping tabs on the draft via the Twitter accounts of myself, Keith Law and Chris Crawford of MLB Draft Insider.

    To join the chat, which will also contain polls, links to news and radio hits and, of course, all of your thoughts and discussions, click here.
    ...

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    Latest Draft Notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-04
    Included in this quick update are notes on the M's No. 2 pick -- and that's about it. But you aren't going to want to miss this.

    NOTE: It's important to note that none of the sources for this information came from the Seattle Mariners or anyone close to the players involved.

    Subscribers can get the latest by clicking here.

    The above file will be updated as I hear different things that could make an impact. Check back often.

    If you are not a subscriber, click here and fix that....

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    Draft Weekly: Mock, Draft Board I

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-03
    This week's edition of Draft Weekly is a brief one, but full of data.

    Subscribers can check out the latest FULL First-round Mock Draft by clicking here, and my first top 10 draft board (with my best estimate of the M's top 10 and my own personal board) as well, by clicking here.

    There will only be one more mock and one last draft board before the draft starts Monday, but during the draft's first two rounds, plus the sandwich round, I will provide my "Best Available" lists as the picks are announced.

    If you are not a subscriber, click here to get access....

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    Prospect Intel: June 1, 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-06-01
    This week's prospect intel includes the long-promised Next 10, with four additional contenders for the mid-season Top 30 report, notes from the organization on the Dustin Ackley transition to second base, an idea of when James Paxton may be promoted -- and where to -- an update on Mauricio Robles and Jose Valdivia, where Jose Campos and Jordan Shipers will be pitching soon and more.

    Subscribers can access the notes by clicking here.

    If you are not a subscriber, click here and become an insider....

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    About Ackley's call-up

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-30
    The talk all year, and especially the past few weeks, has been about when Dustin Ackley will be called up to the big leagues. That move is certain to be made soon, as early as this week -- but probably not later than the series versus the Philadelphia Phillies that runs June 17-19. The Tacoma Rainiers start a road trip on June 4 that runs through the day prior to that Philly series. The timing works out well.

    But for me, the big deal right now isn't about when Ackley gets the call it's about what role he plays once he's here. We've talked a lot lately about which player is sent out when Ackley comes up -- Jack Wilson? Luis Rodriguez? An outfielder such as Carlos Peguero or Michael Saunders with the club moving Adam Kennedy into the third-base rotation?

    Maybe none of the above. Sure, any of those names suggested above could be shipped out or moved around, but here's a thought that we haven't discussed here, but I'm hearing the club is actually considering, or at least have considered: Ackley as the new starting left fielder.

    Yes, it would mean an automatic upgrade at the position without sacrificing defense. It would probably mean Peguero or Saunders get sent down -- Peguero unless the club sees Ackley as an option to back up Franklin Gutierrez in center field.

    Calling up Ackley and using him in left field doesn't necessarily mean the club will abandon the second base idea, but it may mean they abandon their search for an outfielder via trade...

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    More trade target thoughts

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-30
    Last Monday we talked about some potential trade targets the M's could look into. We mentioned, anong others, Minnesota Twins infielder/outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who has a pretty good track record against left-handed pitching and might have just enough capability at third base and in left field to avoid being a defensive liability.

    Lets talk about a few more possibilities, and since Carlos Beltran is a longshot, we'll focus on the non-superstar types which cost far less in trade.

    Shelley Duncan -- Cleveland
    Duncan is a fringe defender but is not terrible, and hits left-handed pitching. The Indians have a slew of platoon-type bats and may be able to spare one for an arm, even if they remain in contention.

    Austin Kearns -- Cleveland
    Kearns had a decent year in 2010 despite not hitting for much power. He's merely adequate with the glove but would still represent an upgrade.

    Ryan Spilborghs -- Colorado
    Spilborghs might be the most available right now. He hits left-handers well and with some pop. He's not an asset in the field, but if he's merely a platoon bat he can't hurt too much.

    Others:Ben Francisco, Philadelphia; Conor Jackson, Oakland.

    If the M's are to stay in this they'll need more from left field and third base and they aren't likely to get it from Chone Figgins. Figgins may have to become a utility pla...

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    Northwest Draft Prospects

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-28
    I didn't update the Northwest Top 10 during draft weekly Thursday, mostly because I was planning on seeing a few of them this weekend and could use the fresh look.

    So, here goes, with a bonus two.

    1. Andrew Susac, C -- Oregon State
    Susac is the top catcher in the class, college or prep, especially considering the unknown surrounding Cleveland HS (NM) star Blake Swihart and the signability concerns with UCLA commit Austin Hedges. It'd be a bit of a surprise if Susac lasted beyond the first round and a shocker if he got past the Chicago White Sox at No. 47.

    1. Tyler Anderson, LHP -- Oregon
    Anderson is a potential first-round pick but with a limited upside and is probably only firmly in that conversation due to signability -- he, like most, or nearly all college juniors that are drafted in round 1 will sign on the dotted line for the best offer made around slot.

    3. Josh Osich, LHP -- Oregon State
    Osich has had his ups and downs this season after having elbow surgery and missing all of 2010. He's a fourth-year junior and considered another very signable player that could sneak into the top 40. The Rangers, Braves, Blue Jays and Rays are linked to him pretty strongly.

    4. Blake Snell, LHP -- Shorewood HS (Wash.)
    Snell was a bit disappointing in April, sitting 85-88 for me twice after touching 92 last summer. He's tall and lean and projectable, so he remained on the radar. I saw him Friday and he was up to 9...

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    Draft Weekly: Mock 10, Rendon notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-26
    Thursday I spoke to two senior-level talent evaluators that hinted -- but wouldn't say outright, of course -- their thoughts and beliefs surrounding Rice's Anthony Rendon.

    Subscribers can check out the latest Top 10 Mock, the notes on Rendon and his status in the top 5, and legit targets for the M's at No. 62 by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and gain access....

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    PI Chat @ 8pm

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-23
    We chatted at 8 pm, tackling inquiries on who the M's might take at Nos. 2 and 62 in the upcoming draft, when Ackley will be called up -- and why not now -- the left field conundrum and whether or not the M's can and should be players at this year's trade deadline.

    To view a transcript of the chat, click here.

    ...

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    If the M's are for real

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-23
    The Seattle Mariners are 22-24 and just a game and a half out of first place in the American League West. This is both good and bad. For one, contending is the goal. But it's a division where the Texas Rangers have been without key players, including the league's reigning MVP, for most of the season, and the other two clubs have as many flaws as do the M's.

    So, are they for real?





    That depends on what "for real" means. If it means a .500ish club, the answer is probably yes. Before the season the majority of those out there that cared to venture a prediction guessed somewhere between 68 and 78 wins. A few predicted fewer, and a few predicted more. But very few.

    But if "for real" means winning the west, the answer isn't the same. Yet.

    The M's are very likely to look to add...

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    Draft Weekly: New Mock, Notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-19
    Prospect Insider Chat Alert: Monday, May 23 @ 8PM PT -- FREE to ALL. Click here to set a reminder.

    Each week, it all changes, so stay with us.

    The rage this past week or so has been centered around Keith Law's first-round mock draft that projects Pittsburgh to pass on both Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, and for Seattle to tab Rendon at No. 2 overall.

    In my last mock draft -- the second full-round version -- I projected Seattle to snag Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor. So, I'm betting there needs to be an explanation.

    Subscribers can get that explanation as well as the latest mock draft by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and get access!...

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    You make the moves

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-17
    It's May 17 and the Seattle Mariners are 17-23 but just 4 1/2 games back of the division-leading Texas Rangers, despite having two others clubs in front of them. The club is streaky -- seven-game losing streak followed by two wins and then another four-game losing streak. They were 4-11 at that point but have gone 13-12 since, a respectable mark.

    What now?

    They have received tremendous starting pitching, and some of it is sustainable, and despite the defense being porous and the bullpen blowing at least five games late, the offense has scored juuuust enough to win more games than they have lost.

    Is it time to pull the plug on Jack Cust at DH and try the red-hot Mike Carp? Once the super-two status deadline passes is Dustin Ackley the starting second baseman? If so, who loses his roster spot and why?

    Do the M's make a couple of deals between now and July 31 to stay in the race, and if so, who do they target and how do they land them?

    You make the move. It's your chance to rosterbate.

    Be clear, cover all the bases, be realistic and know that others will critique and disagree with your ideas. Any posts that ramble, are not easy to read or follow along with the moves will be deleted.

    Any responses -- or responses to responses -- that fly out of line will be deleted, too. This is a time to discuss ideas, not to rip on someone else's thoughts. We have 250 other posts per calendar year to do that. Work together, make suggestion...

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    Banner day in M's system

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-15
    This isn't normally my thing, but a rundown of what the M's prospects did Sunday is a fun one, starting with Dustin Ackley's 4-hit day that included three hits and a double.

    Mike Carp, not a prospect by definition, belted three homers among his four hits, and is now up to .303/.362/.606 with 10 long balls. There may come a time when Carp might actually be useful in a part-time role. He's still just 24.

    Dan Cortes tossed a flawless ninth inning to close out the win, though it was anything but a high-leverage appearance as the Rainiers won 18-6.

    Alex Liddi had two hits and two walks and Matt Tuiasosopo singled and drew three walks as Tacoma's lineup took advantage -- and scored against -- all four of New Orleans' pitchers.

    The Double-A Jackson Generals plated 15 runs of their own, though our buddy Carlos Triunfel went 0-for-4 with two errors. He did draw a walk, however.

    Kyle Seager doubled and homered and continues to defy the scouting eye. It doesn't look like Seager can do anything more than hit for gap power. But he has four long balls and 14 doubles and his OPS climbed over .850 this weekend.

    Outfielder Jake Schaffer, 23, is starting to turn a few heads, though more on a "useful player" scale than a potential future regular. He's up to .338 after Sunday's game and has a little pop, but he's a free swinger, albeit from the left side.

    The prospect of the day, despite Ackley's day, was right-hander Taijuan Walker, who fanned 11...

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    Notes on Dustin Ackley

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-13
    I get 25 questions a day asking me about Dustin Ackley. "When will he be called up?" "Why can't he hit left-handers?" "He's hitting .224, what is the deal?"

    Let's answer those and more in quick fashion.

    Ackley started off slow, similar to last season, but has turned it up a notch of late -- just as he did in May of 2010. But it's been a better year for the former No. 2 overall pick.

    He's hitting for more power -- five homers and seven doubles in 35 games -- than he did a year ago when he didn't get his 12th extra-base hit until May 27 and didn't reach five home runs until August 13 after he'd been promoted to Tacoma from Double-A.

    No, his overall numbers don't look great, but I'm as confident in his future as I have ever been, thanks to a .319/.450/.596 May so far and a .316/.449/.632 line over his past 10 games. In that 10-game stretch he's walked 10 times and fanned five, stolen two bases and tallied six extra-base hits, three of them long balls. And all three of those homers and four of his five for the year have come at home in the cold weather at Cheney Stadium, rather than in the warm-aired bandboxes in Reno, Las Vegas, Tucson and in many other parks in the PCL.

    Ackley enters play Friday with a .246/.376/.401 line and a split of .243/.420/.405 against left-handed pitching, including six hits in his last 14 at-bats with four walks, four strikeouts and two extra-bases hits, one a homer.

    In general, Ackley is better today than he w...

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    Draft Weekly: M's targets, mock

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-12
    We're less than four weeks away from draft day and I have to tell you, I don't know much about what's going to happen. The last two years each consisted of easy No. 1 overall picks and while this season started with a clear top two or three, things haven't worked out that way. Those are baseball odds for ya.

    In this edition of Draft Weekly, we'll take a look at the draft stock of several top talents and which targets the M's are focusing on with the No. 2 pick, the No. 62 pick and toss out Mock Draft 2.0.

    Throw faster and reduce injuries with the FastArm!


    Jed Bradley, LHP -- Georgia Tech
    Bradley's stock has fallen a bit due to a lack of an out pitch -- as I wrote today at ESPN -- but I still think he's a better prospect than Virginia's Danny Hultzen, who has the better breaking ball but has a somewhat limited upside.

    Even during his "struggles" -- and I put that word in quotations because the dude is still not getting hit despite the lack of strikeouts -- Bradley is sitting 91-96 with his fastball and has thrown strikes.

    After UCLA's...

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    What to expect from Mike Wilson

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-09
    The Seattle Mariners have called up Mike Wilson from Triple-A Tacoma, and he will be in uniform and available for Tuesday's game versus the Baltimore Orioles. To make room on the roster, Ryan Langerhans was designated for assignment, which isn't the move I would have made, but there's not going to be tears shed for the loss of Langerhans.

    He is, however, the better runner and defender, and a similar offensive value to Milton Bradley, but perhaps his left-handedness was the deciding factor as Wilson's arrival is partly due to the fact he could help balance the lineup better.

    Bradley was also DFA'd Monday, however, as the club recalled Carlos Peguero. Now that's more like it.

    Wilson was drafted in the second round 10 years ago -- yes, you read that right. Wilson was a 2001 draftee out of Booker T. Washington High School in Oklahoma. He passed up football scholarships to take the money and give baseball a shot.

    He's put up numbers at most levels, and is tearing up the PCL right now, but he's almost always done it as one of the older players in the circuit.

    His bat speed is average, but he's tremendously strong, producing well above-average raw power. He has problems with good velocity, and can't handle fastballs in on him. He likes to extend his arm and has power to left-center, all the way round to right-center.

    At times Wilson sits breaking ball and can generally do a good job hitting them hard, but he will chase balls out of the zone,...

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    Prospect Intel: Pitching rules

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-04
    The Seattle Mariners are loaded with young power arms. Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda are lighting up the big leagues and down in Class-A Clinton, there are more potential frontline starters and high-leverage relievers, including George Mieses, James Paxton, Forrest Snow, Brandon Maurer and now last year's top pick Taijuan Walker.

    Walker will start Thursday for Clinton. I spoke to M's player development director Pedro Grifol about Walker Wednesday afternoon and the reason Walker was held back was simply about avoiding having a high school arm pitch from February through August.

    He threw bullpens in March and was stretched out in April in extended spring training games, with the last three or four going 5-6 innings each and up to 80 pitches or so. Walker is working on a changeup, but didn't need it in XST games, so the challenge of pitching in the Midwest League beckoned the right-hander.

    Walker was sitting 94-97 mph with the fastball and getting his mid-80s curveball over for strikes.

    The Lumberkings rotation may get another boost later in May when right-hander Jose (Vicente) Campos joins the roster. He's also down in extended spring training and is just about ready for an assignment. He, too, is sitting mid-90s with a hard breaking ball, probably closer to a slider at this stage.

    James Paxton, who made his debut last week, was schedule to go again Monday but was tagged in the back of the left shoulder over th...

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    FastArm

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-05-01
    The revolutionary FastArm throwing aid -- designed by former Major League pitcher Bob Kaiser -- uses leverage, momentum and centrifugal force to sharpen your throwing mechanics.

    The popular training aid was recently named "Best of Show" at the 66th annual ABCA Convention held at the Gaylord Opryland Hotel in Nashville, Tenn. from January 6-9, 2011, and comes with a 30-Day 100 percent Money Back Guarantee.

    How the FastArm Works
    When used correctly, the FastArm moves freely and effortlessly and programs your throwing mechanics while preparing your joints for higher speeds and loading.

    Where muscle contractions are required, the FastArm provides instant feedback. The proper positioning of the end naturally guides your arm to rotate at key positions during the throwing motion.

    With a little consistent practice, you learn to program your arm to make these transitions with less effort and great consistency. The result is less strain to your arm and a more efficient, powerful throw!

    Believers in the Product
    The FastArm is used and endorsed by Texas Rangers pitcher Neftali Feliz. In addition, former big leagu...

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    Draft Weekly: 4.30.11

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-29
    It's been a strange few weeks on the scouting trail as we finish up the month of April, but I do think we've learned a few things.

    One of those things is that the depth in Pacific Northwest is strong, but it's lighter at the top than originally expected. Shorewood HS lefty Blake Snell and Redmond's Dylan Davis have not taken that big step forward into firm Day 1 consideration and the injury to OSU's Andrew Susac does nothing positive for his draft stock.

    Around the country, there has been tons of movement and subscribers can check that out by clicking here.

    If you are not a subscriber, click here to remedy such a problem and view the PNW Top 10, the initial first-round mock draft of the year and notes on top prospects....

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    Erik Bedard is not back

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-28
    Despite the solid stat line Wednesday in the 10-1 victory, Seattle Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard was nowhere near the pitcher the club thought they were trading for heading into the 2008 season.

    I know, the seven innings of one-run ball on five hits without a walk is an attractive result, but Bedard got lucky. No, I'm not saying he pitched poorly and the results are a complete accident, but I am saying he's still far away from the frontline starter he was three years ago, and Wednesday was just the best showing of his second career as a risky, mid-rotation starter.

    First off, he's a different pitcher, throwing far fewer fastballs and more changeups and cutters. This is because his average fastball is around 89-90 mph right now, down 2-3 mph from three seasons ago.

    But he's getting significantly fewer swings and misses, the curveball is slower and with an earlier break that lacks some bite -- except for a handful on Wednesday.

    In other words, Bedard's stuff is several grades off what it was in 2007 and early 2008, and his command is only marginally better.

    With hitters making more contact against inferior pitches, we're not likely to see as many results like Wednesday's. Yes, it was an improved effort from Bedard, who simply threw more quality strikes, commanding his fastball better than in previous outings and getting a little help from a Detroit Tigers lineup that was extremely aggressive early in counts and seemed out in front on severa...

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    Prospect Power Sheet

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-24
    Every few weeks or so we'll visit the minors, both in and out of the Seattle Mariners organization and construct a hot sheet of sorts. It won't be a simple ranking of prospects, but a combo of a player's assessed future value and his recent trends. it just won't simply be based on statistical results.

    The bats in the M's system started off ice cold but this edition consists mostly of hitters. Surprise, surprise.

    1. Carlos Triunfel, SS -- Jackson (AA)
    Triunfel starts Sunday with a .283/.333/.483 line in 15 games but his eight extra-base hits (six doubles and two homers) stick out because he didn't get his eighth extra-base knock last season until May 23 -- exactly one month later than this season.

    He's also made just one error, and while that doesn't measure range and problems around the bag with the double play, routine mistakes has been the biggest reason why Triunfel has been a question mark at the position.

    He's still making contact -- just seven strikeouts -- and has four walks, which is somewhat low but it's not Denny Almonte territory, and is a pace for a career-best mark for the 21-year-old Triunfel.

    2. Nick Franklin, SS -- High Desert (A+)
    Franklin's .291/.409/.473 line is impressive because he started so poorly....

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    Alex Liddi

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-22
    I spent the day at Cheney Stadium Thursday, getting there before anyone else but the maintenance crew and other team employees, as usual, and had a plan to get down to the field during BP and talk to Dustin Ackley, Dan Cortes and the coaching staff. But my plans changed when an AL Central scout and I began discussing Alex Liddi. G. Gordon Liddi as the scout called him.

    "I look at these numbers and I'm not sure why he's in the lineup," the scout said. "He's not hitting with runners in scoring position, he's not hitting with the bases empty ... he's not hitting."

    It's a small sample size, but those numbers reflect what the scouting eye suggests in the first place. Liddi isn't a big-league ballplayer.

    "He can't play there," the scout said of Liddi's chances to play third base. "He doesn't have good hands and he I wrote the word 'stiff' by his name after the first two games here."

    Liddi's swing path is long and he lacks the bat speed to make up for it. His other plate skills -- pitch recognition, strike zone judgment, plate coverage -- all grade below average right now. He's not hitting the ball the other way like he did a few years back in High Desert, prompting the scout to suggest that "somebody told him to hit home runs."

    That flies with his pull-happy approach.

    He does have a good arm and has been better in the past in all aspects, and he's just 21, so it's not time to completely give up on the kid. His statistics this month can ulti...

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    M's sign Angel Salome

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-20
    The Seattle Mariners, getting as thin at the Triple-A level as Jay "Bone" Buhner is under his John Deere hat, have signed former Milwaukee Brewers farmhand Angels Salome to a minor league deal, according to numerous reports -- I learned about it via a tweet by Mike Curto who saw a report by Baseball America.

    Salome, a catcher, is short in stature at 5-foot-7 but is capable defensively and is not without some abilities at the plate. His numbers in the low minors were very good, both in the power department and in terms of hitting for average and getting base, but a few nagging injuries and the advanced pitching in the upper levels of the minors stunted his development.

    He'll likely replace Jose Yepez on the Rainiers' roster and help Josh Bard fill out the week's schedule behind the plate, but he hasn't caught since 2009.

    It's not a surprise that Salome would be the choice, as GM Jack Zduriencik was the Scouting Director in Milwaukee when Salome was signed of the Dominican Republic.

    If he's 100 percent, Salome may even be a better backup option than Chris Gimenez or Bard, but we're probably a ways off from the 24-year-old showing that is a possibility.

    "Last time I saw him catch he showed a lack of urgency, as if he was hurt, but he didn't hit the DL at all that year. I wouldn't expect him to do much."

    One other aspect to think about with Salome is the odd nature of his return, or l...

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    What to expect from Carlos Peguero

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-19
    The Seattle Mariners placed first baseman Justin Smoak on the bereavement list Tuesday and called up outfielder Carlos Peguero to take Smoak's roster spot.

    Chris Gimenez and Adam Kennedy figure to be the first basemen in Smoak's absence. Peguero isn't likely to stay up long, as Smoak will almost certainly be back in a day or two, but don't expect much from him if he gets any time -- unless the opposing team (Detroit Tuesday and Wednesday) fails to do any homework at all and throws him fastballs catching the middle of the plate.

    Peguero, a left-handed hitter, gears up for the heater and can hit it -- hard and far -- and if he gets a little lucky and squares up a breaking ball, it will travel great distances, too.

    But a steady diet of offspeed stuff and staying out of the middle of the plate equals not much going on in terms of production for Peguero, as his overall plate discipline is below average and his pitch recognition is worse than any "prospect" the M's have this side of Greg Halman.

    Peguero moves well for a guy listed at 230-plus pounds (as high as 245) but belongs in a corner outfield spot. He does have some athleticism and good arm strength.

    He's going to swing and miss, and he won't hit for average in complete sample sizes but he could connect on an extra-base hit or two if he gets the opportunity.

    He has cut the swing down a bit, but it's still long, so despite the low strikeout totals in Triple-A, it's the approach -- atta...

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    Prospect Intel: 04.18.11

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-18
    The minor league season is less than two weeks old but scouts are already talking, which means we have notes on the top prospects, both in and out of the Seattle Mariners organization.

    Subscribers can check out this week's Intel by clicking here.

    If you are not a subscriber, click here to gain access and become an insider....

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    The New Cheney Stadium

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-15
    Game 1 of the new era begins Friday night at the new Cheney Stadium -- if the weather holds up, anyway -- and I took a walk around to get a look. I didn't take any video of the inside of the clubhouse and coach's offices or training room, for obvious reasons. But I took a little of the field as viewed from inside the home dugout and just outside it.

    It's not great video, but it will give you an idea.

    But it's a palace, and anyone that can should come take a look this season. And if you're into baseball betting, make a wager on the Tacoma Rainiers being around for several more decades, if not forever, and that the M's maintain their relationship with the R's for many years to come.

    The suites are awesome, the general admission seating is sweet and the food is ... to be determined, but I do not recommend the Pizza.

    So far, the Chicken Panini Sandwich (Ryan Divish of The News Tribune) has received the best review. The cheeseburger was tested by the TNT's John McGrath and came back with a 45 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale.

    But there are dozens of new options -- it will take me half the year to try everything, but I...

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    Mike Curto: A True Original

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-14
    It was April of 1999 when the Tacoma Rainiers brought in Mike Curto to handle the play-by-play duties on the radio. We could stop there and render a "and the rest, as they say, is history," but that wouldn't be original. And unoriginal wouldn't describe Mr. Curto in the slightest.

    My first memory of listening to Curto goes back to 2001 during the club's run to the Pacific Coast League title series, one that was never played due to the events of 9-11. It wasn't long after that until Curto's voice came through as loud and clear – and as often -- as those of Dave Niehaus and Rick Rizzs of the big-league club, at least through my car stereo and eventually over the internet.

    Curto has a little bit of a different style. It's direct and somewhat simple, but not without flavor, style and even some panache when the game calls for it. But none are the attribute that makes Curto the unique asset he is on the air.

    Not many broadcasters change with the times. Generally, even the great ones, the legends, stick with what they knew when they broke into the business. Batting averages, runs batted in and earned run average will forever be utilized over the airwaves of even the better play-by-play men in the business. And while Curto can be heard referring to these te...

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    Free Michael Saunders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-12
    Here we are 10 games into the season heading into Tuesday night's game with the Toronto Blue Jays and I already want the club to make one change.

    No, it's not replacing Doug Fister with Blake Beavan or sending Tom Wilhelmsen to Triple-A in favor of Dan Cortes or even benching Chone Figgins in favor of Monday night's hero Luis Rodriguez.

    The Seattle Mariners need to Free Michael Saunders. No, I don't think the club should trade him, I think they need to sit Ryan Langerhans and Milton and let Saunders play every day. Every day. Not five days out of seven or six in a 7-game week -- every single day.

    Larry Stone of the Seattle Times wrote about this Sunday and suggests that he's earning more time with his play, and after he (and Justin Smoak) had a a strong game again in the series opener versus Toronto, there's no reason to take him out of the lineup for any reason other than injury.

    The new mechanics, one in which he's not only shortened the swing but completely eliminated the load and timing mechanism and is now more reminiscent to John Olerud, have given him new life. The power is still there thanks to...

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    2011 MiLB Preview II

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-07
    The season is upon us -- the big leagues opened a week ago and around these parts, the real season starts Thursday. For the affiliates in the Seattle Mariners' organization, there's fun on every roster, both in terms of chances to win games and future big-league talent.

    Let's take a look at each club individually.

    And no, I will not make statistical projections, it's silly, especially with the rosters of the other clubs in each league unofficial. And there are so many other factors, such as weather, health and for pitchers, the lack of polished gloves behind them that skew the numbers.

    That is why the traditional numbers mean so little.



    Tacoma Rainiers, AAA -- Pacific Coast League

    Tacoma not only has a couple of prospects -- they also have several that could see time in the big leagues that aren't necessarily considered good prospects, or prospects at all.

    Greg Halman's second go-round in Tacoma is likely his last shot to make significant improvements toward a career as an everyday player in the major...

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    2011 MiLB Preview

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-07
    It's about that time, just less than a week after the big leaguers got their season under way, the future begin their trek to stardom.

    Subscribers can check out my M's MiLB preview with analysis on where the top 10 prospects were assigned -- or not assigned. This will serve as part 1 of 2, with the second piece coming later Thursday.

    If you're new here, or have yet to become an insider, click here to subscribe.

    Everyone can check out where the top 50 prospects in Keith Law's Prospect Rankings are to start the 2011 campaign, by clicking here.



    ...

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    Jackson Generals roster official

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-05
    The club is apparently still deciding on a couple of the names on the High Desert and Jackson rosters -- possibly whether to make Josh Fields active or not -- but as of Tuesday night below is official.

    Pitchers
    Anthony Vasquez
    Nick Hill (DL)
    Steven Hensley
    Andrew Carraway
    Bobby LaFromboise
    Brian Moran
    Scott Patterson
    Stephen Penney
    Jarret Grube
    Josh Fields
    Moises Hernandez
    Kenn Kasparek
    Erasmo Ramirez
    Donnie Hume (DL)
    Stephen Kahn (DL)

    Catchers
    Jose Yepez
    Brandon Bantz

    Infielders
    Johan Limonta
    Rich Poythress
    Scott Savastano
    Kyle Seager
    Carlos Triunfel
    Edilio Colina (DL)
    Luis Jimenez (DL)

    Outfielders
    Joe Dunigan (DL)
    Brandon Haveman
    Kuo Hui Lo (DL)
    James McOwen
    Nate Tenbrink
    Eddy Martinez-Esteve (DL)
    Johermyn Chavez
    Jake Shaffer

    Notes: Limonta is listed as an infielder but could play some outfield -- though not well. The rotation should consist of Carraway, Ramirez, Vasquez, Kasparek and Hensley, at least until Hume or Hill returns.

    It's an aggressive assignment for Ramirez but a good test. He sat 86-89 during the spring but an Indians scout got him at 91 a couple of time. There's little projection in his physical makeup, so he kind of is what he is, but he does throw strikes with three pitches.

    ...

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    High Desert Mavericks Roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-05
    Haven't tracked down the one for Double-A Jackson, but having Tacoma, Clinton and High Desert make the Jackson one easy to figure out. But here's the Advanced-A roster.

    Pitchers
    Alfredo Venegas (DL)
    Stephen Pryor (DL)
    Austin Hudson
    Tim Boyce
    Chris Kirkland
    Nick Czyz
    James Gillheeney
    Taylor Stanton
    Yoervis Medina
    Chris Source
    Jonahan Hesketh
    John Housey
    Daniel Cooper
    Jose Jimenez

    Catchers
    Trevor Coleman
    Ralph Henriquez

    Infielders
    Dennis Raben (yes, listed as an infielder)
    Gabriel Noriega
    Vinnie Catricala
    Jake Schlander
    Matt Browning
    Nick Franklin
    Shaver Hansen (DL)
    Mario Martinez (DL)

    Outfielders
    Denny Almonte
    Daniel Carrol
    James Jones
    Kalian Sams...

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    Class-A Clinton roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-05
    These will all be released today, but let's get them in one place here.

    Pitchers
    Tyler Blandford
    Matt Bischoff
    Forrest Snow
    Seon-Gi Kim
    Jason Markovitz
    Jonathan Arias (DL)
    Brandon Maurer
    Edlando Seco
    Tyler Burgoon
    Willy Kesler
    Stephen Kohlscheen
    George Mieses
    Anthony Fernandez
    Fray Martinez

    Catchers
    Steve Baron
    Carlton Tanabe

    Infielders
    Anthony Phillips
    Marcus Littlewood
    Stefen Romero
    Ramon Morla
    Mickey Wiswall
    Tim Morris
    Carlos Ramirez

    Outfielder
    Matt Cerione
    Kevin Rivers
    Julio Morban...

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    Official Tacoma Rainiers roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-05
    The Tacoma Rainiers have released their official roster, so here it is.


    Pitchers
    Blake Beavan
    Denny Bautista
    Dan Cortes
    Manny Delcarmen
    Luke French
    Cesar Jimenez
    Justin Miller
    Edward Paredes
    Chaz Roe
    Royce Ring
    Chris Seddon
    Chris Smith

    Catchers
    Josh Bard
    Chris Gimenez

    Infielders
    Dustin Ackley
    Leury Bonilla
    Jetsy Extrano
    Sean Kazmar
    Alex Liddi
    Matt Tuisosopo

    Outfielders
    Mike Carp
    Greg Halman
    Carlos Peguero
    Mike Wilson

    Notes: Clearly, Extrano and Bonilla are placeholders for Matt Mangini and Luis Rodriguez. Mangini is on the DL and Rodriguez is in the big leagues, likely only until David Aardsma returns from his own trip to the disabled list.

    I believe Charlie Haeger is on the roster but on the disabled list.
    ...

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    Prospect Intel: Snow, Pryor

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-04
    Minor league camp ended over the weekend and players are headed for their destinations. I have a couple of assignments to pass long in this week's Intel, and the rosters will be out shortly.

    But first, if you missed it live, check out my weekly segment on 950 KJR with Ian Furness and Jason Puckett by clicking here. And be sure to listen to the very end, I think the guys liked my sign-off line.

    Aaaand, we're off ...

    Forrest Snow, RHP
    Snow was named the organization's pitcher of the spring and is looking to return to starting where he spent most of camp. Snow started 12 games at the University of Washington but was used exclusively in relief in his first pro season.

    The right-hander continues to develop physically, now standing 6-foot-7 and weighing in at about 225 pounds. He's sitting 91-95 as a starter, toughing the higher digits within that range up to 70 pitches and dominating his own teammates and the rest of the minor Cactus Leaguers -- he didn't allow a run all spring.

    It's not time to anoint Snow a top 10 prospect or anything, butif he's going to sit low 90s and touch the mid-90s and throw strikes in the process, he's going to pitch in the big le...

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    Blake Snell, LHP

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-03
    I went and checked out another area prospect last week, this time checking in on left-hander Blake Snell of Shorewood High School.

    There doesn't appear to be a consensus on Snell among the area scouts I have talked to -- some prefer him to Redmond's Dylan Davis, some do not.

    Subscribers can find out why that is in my scouting report on Snell, as well as check out the video I shot of him by clicking here.

    If you aren't yet a subscriber, click here and become one.

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    Jason A. Churchill is Executive Editor at Prospect Insider, founded in 2006, and has covered scouting and player development since 2003, writing for publications such as InsidethePark.com, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and The News Tribune. You can follow Jason on Twitter @ProspectInsider, as well as
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    Projecting the Tacoma Rainiers

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-02
    We already have a pretty good idea about the bulk of the Tacoma Rainiers roster for 2011, but let's get it out on paper, so to speak, so we can take a look at the most likely possibilities.

    Some of these are no-brainers and automatics, some are not.

    Also, we have to remember how the disabled list will impact the initial roster and the rosters down the line as those players return.

    We'll tackle potential promotions in a post once the rosters are official and we see where the top prospects have been placed, though I don't suspect any major surprises.

    I still, however, suspect one of the upper-level fringe prospects gets traded sometime early in the season, perhaps a former $3 million player.

    First Base
    Mike Carp
    Luis Jimenez
    Johan Limonta

    Second Base
    Dustin Ackley

    Third Base
    Alex Liddi
    Matt Tuiasosopo

    Shortstop
    Sean Kazmar

    Catcher
    Josh Bard
    Chris Gimenez
    Jose Yepez

    Outfield
    Greg Halman
    Carlos Peguero
    Mike Wilson

    Starting Pitcher
    Charlie Haeger
    Blake Beavan
    Luke French
    Yusmeiro Petit
    Chaz Roe

    Relief Pitcher
    Scott Patterson
    Cesar Jimenez
    Manny Delcarmen
    Dan Cortes
    Chr...

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    Game 1 Recap

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-04-02
    I'm not sure how many of these we'll do this year -- it's not our MO here at Prospect Insider -- but it seemed a worthy task after an Opening Night victory on the road.

    The story of the night was Felix Hernandez, but he wasn't alone. While the right-hander pounded the strike zone, the Seattle Mariners actually forced 184 pitches out of six Oakland Athletics pitchers, drawing seven walks to counter 14 strikeouts.

    Yes, the A's defense let them down, but the M's did squeeze out nine hits, including a double by Justin Smoak and a long ball by Chone Figgins, probably his only one of the season, so he made it count.

    Hernandez's command was a bit spotty, at least with the fastball, but he had tremendous movement on everything, mixed in the curveball and changeup and confused the entire Oakland lineup by going back and forth between the two-seamer and four-seamer.

    Three things I saw that I did not like

    Justin Smoak expanding the strike zone
    He swung at at least three pitches out of the zone tonight, two on breaking balls early in the count. Part of his potential success is going to be managing the count when the opposing pitcher could use the offspeed stuff as a weapon and getting more fastballs to hit. Jumping on breaking balls down and in on the first pitch isn't a good plan.

    Langerhans in the lineup
    Langerhans has a reverse career split and the A's will start a left-hander Saturday in Brett Anderson and another i...

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    Make Your Predictions

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-31
    We do this every year for fun, so we'll do it again and see how awfully wrong we can be once more.

    Copy and paste my predictions and change my picks to yours!

    Here are mine:

    AL West
    1. Oakland
    2. Texas
    3. Los Angeles
    4. Seattle

    AL Central
    1. Detroit
    2. Chicago
    3. Minnesota
    4. Kansas City
    5. Cleveland

    AL East
    1. Boston
    2. New York
    3. Tampa Bay
    4. Toronto
    5. Baltimore

    AL Batting Champ
    Kevin Youkilis, Boston

    AL Home Run Champ
    Adam Dunn, Chicago

    AL ERA Champ
    Felix Hernandez, Seattle

    AL Rookie of the Year
    Kyle Drabek, RHP -- Toronto

    AL Cy Young
    Jon Lester

    AL MVP
    Miguel Cabrera

    NL West
    1. San Francisco
    2. Colorado
    3. Los Angeles
    4. San Diego
    5. Arizona

    NL Central
    1. Cincinnati
    2. St. Louis
    3. Milwaukee
    4. Chicago
    5. Houston
    6. Pittsburgh

    NL East
    1. Atlanta
    2. Philadelphia
    3. Florida
    4. Washington
    5. New York

    NL Batting Champ
    Hanley Ramirez, Florida

    NL Home Run Champ
    Ryan Howard, Philadelphia

    NL ERA Champ
    Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles

    <...

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    M's Top 10 Trade Assets

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-29
    I think we all know the Seattle Mariners aren't likely to win 90 games and contend in the American League West -- although none of the other three clubs are runaway favorites that appear capable of winning 95-100 games. So 2011 is, whether the club publicly admits it or not, somewhat of a rebuilding season.

    Since that is the case, GM Jack Zduriencik has a lot of work to do in order to put together a roster that can win 95 games and challenge the best teams in the circuit. Part of that work will have to be done via free agency, but Zduriencik is a pretty good trader.

    In that light, let's take a look at the club's top 10 trade assets, minus Ichiro -- because it's just not happening -- and Felix Hernandez, because at the very least it's not happening between now and July 31.



    No. 1 -- Michael Pineda, RHP

    He wasn't the No. 1 prospect but because he's a potential impact starting pitcher and is big-league ready -- or close to it, at least -- he tops this list.

    It's difficult to imagine Seattle trading Pineda un...

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    Draft Weekly: M's targets, Davis, mock

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-26
    I skipped the draft weekly last week to focus on the pro guys down in Arizona -- and we still have some video left to publish -- but there was too much going on to skip this week entirely. We'll be back in Tuesday's slot next week, but here's a weekend edition to whet the whistle. By the way, there is video of one the top prospects in the northwest region below.

    Seattle Mariners at No. 2
    I have my own theory about the M's at No. 2, which is if there is a college player there that makes a lot of sense -- i.e. Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon -- that is the direction I strongly believe the club will go. The reason I see it that way is based on the more-than-lukewarm seat Jack Zduriencik may be on this season, one that will certainly heat up a year from now. Selecting a prep player doesn't help Zduriencik improve his stock with the M's ownership group and front office suits, because there is a virtually no chance that player helps before 2013 or 2014.

    But there are scenarios that I could see Cole or Rendon not being the pick. For one, Pittsburgh may very well tab Cole at No. 1 and Rendon -- who began playing third base again earlier this week -- may not grade out well enough to be worth the price and risk (injuries) at No. 2.

    On my own created su...

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    The Cycle: Mieses, bullpen

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-03-25
    Ground ball single
    As you've probably heard by now, Seattle has officially announced that Brendan Ryan will be the everyday shortstop, with Jack Wilson moving over to second base. The "switch" was not without controversy, as Wilson has no major league experience at the position, and reportedly was hoping to stay at short during the last year of his contract.

    The move was the right one to make, however, for a couple of important reasons. First, with Wilson having but one year left on his deal, keeping Ryan at shortstop is the best thing for the long-term success of the club. With the former Cardinal tied to the organization through at least 2012, the club is better off gaining as much value from Ryan as possible, and they gain that value by having him play his best position.

    It also gives Wilson the opportunity to show some versatility, which will benefit the club in increasing his trade value, limited as it may be.

    Most importantly, when Dustin Ackley is ready to be called up from Tacoma and play regularly, it may make more sense since Wilson could potentially attract trade interest, opening a spot for Ackley without the concern of a crowded position.

    Double
    One of the prospects that I Full Story - Comments (11)
    More Spring Video

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-24
    We've got more video and tonight's set includes a short glimpse at Guillermo Pimentel and Hassiel Jimenez and several pitches from right-hander Tyler Burgoon.

    Below (Click 'Full Story') is a spliced video of a few Texas Rangers prospects from this past weekend, including first-round picks Kellin Deglan and Jake Skole and top shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar, as well as Mariners' outfield prospect Dennis Raben.

    Subscribers can view the vids of Pimentel, Jimenez and Burgoon by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, here are your options.

    Raben is back and looking as if he may last a full season this time. He hit well in his abbreviated time last year and has a shot to break camp in Double-A Jackson this season, but could start back in High Desert, too.



    The Rangers, in order they appear: Catcher Kellin Deglan, right-hander Eric Hurley, outfielder Jake Skole and Jurickson Profar, who may be the top teen shortstop in pro ball.

    ...

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    M's out front for international star

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-23
    A source tells me this week that the Seattle Mariners are the early but heavy favorites to ultimately sign Dominican outfield prospect Ilian Hernandez when the July signing period begins. I don't have a ton of reliable information on Hernandez as a player, but was told that he certainly looks the part.

    Hernandez is expected to command among the bigger bonuses of the summer.

    ...

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    Wrapping Spring Training Week

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-21
    PEORIA, ARIZONA -- It was Class-A day at the Peoria Sports Complex with the Texas Rangers visiting the grounds. The High Desert group consisted of some aggressive assignments (just for the day, not necessarily for the new season), including international signee Esteilon Peguero.

    Peguero showed right away that he's not a shortstop, aside from lacking the foot speed and athleticism to even play second base. He's awfully raw and his swing is going to need a complete revamping if he's to develop average or better offensive production.

    We'll have a short video of Peguero coming this week.

    Others we'll have video of include Hassiel Jimenez behind the plate, right-hander George Mieses (plus radar readings), third baseman Ramon Morla, left fielder Guillermo Pimentel, right-hander Tyler Burgoon, outfielder Dennis Raben and a few of Rangers prospects, including Kellin Deglan, Jake Skole, and Eric Hurley.

    The three things that stood out most for me this week:

    1. James Paxton, LHP
    He's clearly been throwing during his down time, but to see him hit the mid-90s and throw all of his pitches without bouncing the offspeed stuff to the plate or throw any fastballs to the backstop was a good sign.

    2. Carlos Triunfel,...

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    Paxton, Pimentel shine

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-20
    PEORIA, ARIZONA -- Saturday at the minor league complex was Day 1 of the MiLB Cactus League season. The San Diego Padres were the opponent, with the Double-A and Triple-A clubs playing their games on the home side of PSC.

    Big leaguers Doug Fister, Josh Bard, Josh Wilson and Dustin Ackley got some work in the Triple-A game, with prospects filling out the rest of the lineup.

    The Padres even had some names get a look at Fister, including first baseman Anthony Rizzo, centerfielder Cedric Hunter and third baseman James Darnell.

    But the buzz of the day for me was getting a look at James Paxton throw a bullpen session.

    Subscribers can click here for radar readings of his four-pitch arsenal and video of the session.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here to choose your membership.

    Also included in this spring training report: Video of Nick Franklin from both sides of the plate and scouting notes on Philips Castillo, Guillermo Pimentel, Christian Carmichael and a 48th-round pick....

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    The Cycle: Spring Training

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-03-19
    PEORIA, ARIZONA -- Last year, Prospect Insider gave you the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the 2010 Mariners season -- with an emphasis on the bad and ugly due to unforeseen awfulness.

    This year, we're going to give you something similar, but we've pumped up the creativity volume. We call it "The Cycle," and it will take you on a magical journey through the comings and goings of the baseball season -- taking a look at the happenings of everything from the big league club down to players the Mariners could be targeting in the 2011 draft.

    Two-out Walk
    Any Mariners fan who has had the "pleasure" to watch the team since 2004 knows that patience hasn't exactly been Seattle's forte, at least at the plate. Seattle was dead last in on-base percentage last season, and over the last few drafts and international signing periods, the M's took what could only be called a lackluster approach to acquiring players that were willing to work the count.

    These last few drafts, however, have been a different story, and over the last couple of days the game plan we've seen out of a few minor-leaguers has been impressive. Kyle Seager's ability to get on base was well noted in High Desert last season, but seeing him in person gives you a completel...

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    Spring Notebook: Day Two

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-18
    PEORIA, ARIZONA -- Thursday we skipped the team practices and worked the intrasquad games, instead, getting a look at several interesting prospects.

    Subscribers can check out the report that includes word on three young arms that reached the upper-90s and two young position players that rank among the top talents in the system -- and a couple videos -- from Thursday by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and change that....

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    Spring Training Scouting Notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-17
    PEORIA, ARIZONA -- As the Seattle Mariners are nearing the start of their campaign in attempt to buck the MLB odds, the kids in the system -- the future of the ballclub -- are working off the rust.

    Upon arrival at the complex Wednesday morning, I was able to gather some intel that will be helpful going forward: Grouping assignments, as well a good chunk of batting practice and an intrasquad game. for the groupings, tt doesn't mean these levels are where the player starts the 2011 season, but sometimes it is a sign, and other times it's a strong indication of nothing at all.

    On to the info! (Note: We're really only mentioning prospects and other notables, rather than entire rosters, so names like Johan Limonta will not be listed)

    Group 1 - Tacoma/Jackson

    Carlos Triunfel, SS
    Triunfel was one of six batting practice sessions I focused on today, and there have been some adjustments made in his stance and swing. He's starting with his front foot pointed toward the pitcher; a year ago this month, he was open, with that left foot facing the hole at shortstop, and his hands are lower and a little closer to his body. This appears to a...

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    Spring Prospect Wrap

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-03-13
    Each week here at Prospect Insider we will take a look around the minor and major leagues at some intriguing prospects and their performances from the past week of action. This first installment takes a look at some of the prospects making noise in Spring Training for their clubs.

    Freddie Freeman, 1B -- Atlanta Braves
    Reportedly showed up to camp with 20 added pounds of muscle and a very easy road to an everyday job for the Braves, but he hasn't been taking it easy on the competition and resting on those laurels. He is stinging the ball and showing an approach that is far more advanced than his age would suggest. Some scouts initially questioned the power for Freeman, but with his 6-foot-5 frame starting to fill out quickly it looks like the power could be there right out of the gate for the 21-year old.

    A.J. Pollock, CF -- Arizona Diamondbacks
    Pollock was a first-round pick in 2009 and had moderate results and a good approach that first season in the Midwest League that had him fast tracking, but he suffered a pretty severe and freak elbow injury last spring that required surgery, and ended up missing all of the 2010 season. He's come to camp for the Diamondbacks to show off his skills but also to show he has recovered from tha...

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    The Cycle: The Power Outage

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-03-11
    Last year, Prospect Insider gave you the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the 2010 Mariners season -- with an emphasis on the bad and ugly due to unforeseen awfulness.

    This year, we're going to give you something similar, but we've pumped up the creativity volume. We call it "The Cycle," and it will take you on a magical journey through the comings and goings of the baseball season -- taking a look at the happenings of everything from the big league club down to players the Mariners could be targeting in the 2011 draft.

    Bases Loaded Walk
    Barring an injury to the current middle infield options, Dustin Ackley isn't likely to make his major-league debut until the summer months -- or at least the spring -- but the early results this month are encouraging. Ackley has walked five times in his 17 plate appearances, helping him achieve a .471 on-base percentage, second only to Jack Wilson for any hitter in camp with more than 10 plate appearances.

    The concern with Ackley has never lied with his ability to get on base, but rather on the defensive side and power abilities. The facts still show that the top prospect in the system is getting on base 47 percent of the time against some of the best competition he's seen. If Ackley can do this for t...

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    Draft Weekly: Lefties and a Mock

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-09
    While Anthony Rendon's bat is on fire, he's still not playing third base, which will become a concern should such a scenario linger into April. But other than that, not a lot has changed among the top prospects in the country, college or prep.

    For the buzz, a mock top 10 and new Northwest Top 10 and talk about who the No. 1 pick should be, subscribers can click here to jump to the weekly draft report.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here to change that....

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    Scouting Michael Saunders

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-08
    Michael Saunders has just 456 plate appearances in the big leagues, but he may be running out of time to convince the Seattle Mariners that he is part of their future. He's struggling this spring, and not just statistically. But he's blessed with above-average tools across the board, so why hasn't he put together longer stretched of production?

    Five words explains that: He still gets himself out.






    Saunders has holes in his swing, has problems covering the plate effectively and his pitch recognition is on and off, depending on the situation and perhaps the pitcher on the mound.

    He's been working on firming up his front side and keeping his back side still, which in combination could help him hit the ball the other way some, an aspect of his game that has disappeared the past year or so.

    His swing is still inconsistent in terms of length; when Saunders is quick to th...

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    Scouting James Paxton

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-04
    Churchill on Ackley, Pineda and the service time considerations

    The Mariners have officially announced the signing of James Paxton, so we can now talk about his future with the club and where he fits among the club's top prospects.

    After going back and forth and considering the time off and everything else involved, Paxton fits in as the No. 7 prospect in the organization for Prospect Insider. That's a spot behind shortstop Marcus Littlewood and just ahead of left-hander Mauricio Robles.

    Paxton, at his best, sits in the 90-94 mph range with a sinking fastball with downward plane, thanks to his 6-foot-4 frame and despite a three-quarter arm slot.

    His best breaking ball is a true slider that sweeps away from left-handers; it's shown good tilt and late bite at times, but was not consistent last spring, and he had trouble sustaining the good velocity -- something that is most likely due to all the time off.

    He also throws a slurvy curveball, a pitch that is sometimes good enough to consider using as his exclusive breaking ball, and other times appears as a show-me offering.

    His delivery is smooth and somewhat deliberate, but his arm path is long,...

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    Ackley, Pineda and service time

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-04
    There's been a lot of talk over the winter, and now early during spring training, about if and when Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda, could and should make their big league debuts.

    The easy answer is "2011," but to be more specific -- it's not the same answer for both prospects.

    Both could make the club right out of spring training if it were based on whether or not they are among the best 25 players on the 40-man roster. You can make the argument that Pineda is the second best starting pitcher in the entire organization and it's difficult to believe that Ackley, today, isn't one of the best nine hitters the club has at its disposal.

    But there's a chance that neither make the initial 2011 roster.

    Ackley could use more reps at second base and versus left-handed pitching, but scouts are saying he's ready enough at the plate and looks a step better in the field this month than in August.

    Pineda throws strikes with his fastball and hits his spots with regularity. But his split-change still needs work -- and his slider, too -- and he has had problems keeping his delivery in tact deep into games.

    But there is the issue of service time, and it does matter. It just matters more for Ackley than it does for Pineda.

    Ackley, as a Scott Boras client, is more unlikely to sign a long-term extension, therefore making the service time issue an important one for the player and his tenure with the Seattle Mariners. Boras clients are genera...

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    The Cycle

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-03-03
    Last year, Prospect Insider gave you the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the 2010 Mariners season -- with an emphasis on the bad and ugly due to unforeseen awfulness.

    This year, we're going to give you something similar, but we've pumped up the creativity volume. We call it "The Cycle," and it will take you on a magical journey through the comings and goings of the baseball season -- taking a look at the happenings of everything from the big league club down to players the Mariners could be targeting in the 2011 draft.

    Now that the introduction is out of the way, let's get to the good stuff.

    Single
    Michael Pineda had a successful first outing, going two innings without allowing a base-runner and striking out one in the Mariners 5-3 loss to Arizona. Reports from Peoria are that Pineda's fastball was in the 94-98 mph range, and the control -- especially for his first outing of the year -- was impressive.

    Spring training stats are to be taken with a grain of salt and no matter how well Pineda does, Seattle's most likely course of action will be to have the right-hander start the year in Tacoma. Seeing your best pitching prospect hitting 98 mph on the gun in early March, however, is something to be appreciative of, to say the leas...

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    Draft Weekly

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-03-02
    Each week here at Prospect Insider we will take a look around the 2011 draft class, which could prove to be one of the better classes of all time before the spring is over. We'll occasionally focus on one or two players, or a specific region, skill or position. Included in that will be full scouting reports and analysis of the possibilities for the Seattle Mariners at No. 2, and a focus on the Northwest Area, which boasts several potential first-day selections. To read our full 2011 Draft Preview which includes an Area Top 10, click here.

    Catching
    There is always a shortage of catching in the draft, just like there is a shortage of it in pro ball already. But two backstops have come up in conversation this past week. One a potential first-round pick and the other a potential sleeper.

    Oregon State's Andrew Susac, according to an area scout, has shored up his footwork, throwing technique and receiving skills and is handling the position like he could step in very soon and do the same at the big league level.

    Susac ranked at No. 18 on E...

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    Paxton Signs

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-27
    Prospect Insider has learned that the Mariners may have come to agreement with James Paxton, via Alex Meyer on Twitter. Meyer, a junior, is a first-round talent in this year's draft class.

    We would have placed Paxton No. 9 on the handbook, but that is based very much on Paxton regaining his form within a year or so, and that's a guess at this point.

    As for 2011, Paxton could stay behind in extended spring training to catch up, or he could start the season in Class-A with a chance to move up quickly.

    Command and consistent secondary stuff are typically the areas of rust after long layoffs....

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    The Top 15

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-27
    Free for all to see, the Top 15 prospects are revealed by clicking here.

    For scouting reports, tools grades and peak performance projections, you can get the 2011 Prospect Insider Digital Handbook by clicking here.

    You'll notice in the Top 15 that each player has received a grade in columns labeled "MLBPR" and "Top 100." If there is a "Yes" in the Top 100 column, the player appeared in Keith Law's Top 100 Rankings.

    MLBPR stands for MLB Power Ranking. What we did this winter was take Law's Top 10 by organization and rank PI's Top 10 for the M's according to the players' Top 100 Ranking, or by pitting them against each other in conversations with four talent evaluators, including an assistant general manager.

    This ranking tells you where that player ranks among the rest of the players ranked at that position within their own organizati...

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    2011 Draft Preview

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-24
    The 2011 Draft is filled with talent, questions, and even fewer answers than a year ago despite being the deepest class in at least three years, and probably the best since 2005. But this class is like no other it more than one way, starting with the rules changes made by the good 'ole NCAA.

    The New Bat Regulations
    Since the late 1990s the NCAA has been looking for a way to temper the impact of the aluminum bat in college baseball, going as far as limiting the weight-length differential and the size of the sweet spot.

    The changes didn't work, largely due to the reason why the aluminum bat produces what coaches have often referred to as the "trampoline effect" is because aluminum compresses when it meets the ball, serving as a springboard. The offensive output wasn't just because the players were swinging lighter bats much quicker.

    So this winter, a new testing system was put in place called the BBCOR, which stands for "ball-bat coefficient of restitution." The new system gives values to what happens to the ball and bat when the two meet. These measurements were taken into strong consideration when the new bats were regulated and then manufactured.

    Now, bats that pass the NCAA qualifications test have minimal trampoline effect a...

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    Chat Live Replay

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-23


    Jump to Chat Replay.

    - Discuss (6)
    Revealing the Top 30: 16-30

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-23
    We'll reveal the entire top 30 as the week unfolds, FREE for all to see. If you want the scouting reports, peak performance projections and 2011 assignments, etc., click here to find out how to get The Handbook.

    Today, we reveal the back end of the top 30. When clicking on the link below, you can view prospects No. 16-30 in table form and it will open in a new window so you can view and comment on this post at the same time.

    Click for prospects 16-30.

    And don't forget tonight's chat at 6pm. Click here to set a reminder.

    We'll be looking to break a site record for questions answered, so jump in and get your interests addressed....

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    Prospect Insider Handbook 2011

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-22
    Forever subscribers have been receiving their 2011 Prospect Insider Digital Handbooks since Friday evening, but here's a chance for anyone else to get theirs.

    And once you get your digital copy, remember there are bookmarks that will take you to any part of the guide you'd like to check out. There's no need to scroll by hand through parts you've already read or want to skip over.

    To use the bookmarks, open the PDF and look for the blue ribbon on the far left side of your Reader. Clicking that opens the bookmarks as a set of clickable table of contents.

    If you are a monthly or annual subscriber, click here to get your handbook for $3.49.

    If you are not a subscriber, never fear, it costs you little more. For non-subscribers, click here to get your handbook for $4.99.

    If you'd like to become a forever subscriber and get a FREE digital handbook EVERY YEAR, as well as a FREE mid-season Prospect Report, click here. Every cent will be donated to Cole and his family.

    Once you're payment is complete, please Full Story - Comments (39)
    Hope Springs Eternal

    By: Joe Kaiser on 2011-02-18
    PLEASE click here to help Cole and get a Forever Subscription to Prospect Insider.

    Spring is here. Pitchers and catchers have reported. And, from what my family tells me, Seattle is more than due for that one week of beautiful, clear, crisp February weather that always seems to tease the Puget Sound region.

    Sprinkle in the fact that the brand new Cheney Stadium is set to be unveiled in six weeks -- how crazy cool is that!? -- and there should be a lot to be excited about if you're a baseball fan in and around Seattle.

    So why, then, am I struggling to get excited about the 2011 Mariners? It's a question I've been asking myself a lot over the past few weeks and months. I mean, as much as I'm into other sports and other things, baseball is and always will be my No. 1.

    I still can't watch Edgar's double without a Kleenex or think about Junior being carried off the field after the season finale in 2009 without every hair on my arms standing up on end.

    And with great looking new talents like Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda set to join Felix Hernandez as the faces of the organization for many years to come, there is a lot to be excited about.

    So w...

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    Rangers system still strong

    By: Churchill/Randall on 2011-02-16
    PLEASE click here to help Cole and get a Forever Subscription to Prospect Insider.

    On eve of the eve of the release of the 2011 Prospect Insider Handbook, we finish up our three-part series assessing the farm systems of the other three clubs in the American League West. In case you missed them, check out Rick Randall's take on the Angels here and the Athletics here. Now, onto the Texas Rangers, who began the 2010 season with the No. 1 farm system in all of baseball. If you're into MLB betting, don't count out the Rangers anytime soon.

    The Rangers system is still very solid, built more on depth now than a year ago when Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez were both potential frontline starters, Wilmer Font wasn't far behind and the club had two long-term first base prospects within a year of the big leagues.

    Now, Feliz is the team's closer, Perez is coming off a sub par season that has raised some eyebrows and Font is recovering from...

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    The first week of spring

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-15
    PLEASE click here to help Cole.

    There's nothing quite like the first week of spring-training. After three long months of off-season talk -- and in the case of the Seattle off-season, talk is where it started and stopped --we can finally turn on the local news and see the boys of summer playing catch, throwing off the mound or taking batting practice.

    Everyone is in the "best shape of their life" or "tweaked their delivery/changed their swing after watching hours of tape." The new managers are all surprised by how much talent is on their new club, and even if you're a Royal or Pirate fan, something deep down in the gut of your stomach is saying that this is the year. So and so and what's his face are going to have the best seasons of their careers and the breaks are finally going to go the squads way and the smells of nostalgia and optimism fill your man-cave.

    Reality be damned.

    Let's take a look at some of the more interesting things that have happened over the first few days in Peoria.

    Griffey hired as consultant
    In a move that surprised absolutely no one, the M's named Ken Griffey, Jr. as a special consultant to the club. There's no real defined role for what Griffey's job entails, but it appears that he'll be working with the farm system and helping in Peoria as well.

    This is obviously a public relations move and a half, but that doesn't mean Griff...

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    Lets Help Cole

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-14
    If you were one of billions that caught Elise Woodward's show on Friday night between 8:40 PM and 9:25 PM, you heard me open the first segment by asking all of the listeners to join Prospect Insider in helping about a 5-year old boy named Cole.

    Cole lives in the Bay Area and he and his parents are close friends and neighbors of one Joe Kaiser and his family. Kaiser, founder and publisher at InsidethePark.com years ago in this here blogosphere, has done wonders for Prospect Insider and yours truly, both on and off the pages of this site.

    Cole has what is called stage 4 neuroblastoma, a form of cancer. Cole began chemotherapy this past Friday, part of medical treatments that will likely cost the family more than $30,000 per year.

    Thirty thousand dollars.

    Click here to read Cole's story, as written by his family.

    Well, we can't let this go without doing our best to help. So head on over to Cole's website and make a donation. Even 5-10 bucks helps, and you can even choose to make such smaller donations, automated on a monthly basis.

    For those that would like to donate $50 or more, I will put you on the Forever Subscriber list and you will get the 2011 Prospect Insider Handbook and the Mid-season Prospect Report for FREE.

    To make such a donati...

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    M's on Chad Durbin

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-13
    Prospect Insider has learned that the Seattle Mariners may be closing a deal with right-hander Chad Durbin as early as Sunday night. Durbin could come in and either serve as a setup type relief arm or work for a spot in the back of the rotation.

    Durbin has been holding out for a raise from the $2-plus million he made a year ago, but so far there have been no takers.

    The 33-year-old right-hander made 64 appearances a year ago posting solid, yet unspectacular numbers, but can miss bats and does have experience in the rotation, including 75 big-league starts....

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    Projecting the M's Roster

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-13
    So, the long offseason is over. The grass is green, at least down in the desert, and hundreds of ballplayers are en route to spring training where all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball have hope.

    It's true, there's hope for even the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners to do something special. Maybe special for these types of organizations is winning 80 games because their young players stepped up and are closer to stardom than conventional wisdom suggests they should be. Maybe it's shocking the world and going from worst to first, so to speak.

    Either way, spring training is upon us, which means it's officially baseball season again.

    In Seattle, it's been 133 days since the Mariners played their last game, a 4-3 loss to Oakland to complete a sweep for the Athletics. The M's ended the season on a 5-game losing streak, the seventh losing streak of more than four games for the season.

    But last year's Mariners are not this year's team. The Opening Day Rosters will be vastly different from one another, no matter who wins the few battles that will take place in March. There will be no Casey Kotchman, no Rob Johnson, no Jose Lopez, and no Don Wakamatsu.

    Who's taking their places? Let's take a look at the candidates, unit...

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    One day

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-12
    There is one day between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Radio Hit
    I sat in with Brian Abker at KJR Friday night talking M's, you can catch that on podcast right here. (If you click the link, you can even listen while reading the rest of this post!)

    In case you missed it
    I wrote yesterday about the Seattle Mariners, and other clubs, and the idea of trading for left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Minne...

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    Trading for Francisco Liriano

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-11
    If you haven't heard by now, the hot topic in baseball right now is the word that the Minnesota Twins could consider trading left-hander Francisco Liriano.

    Apparently, they Twins feel they may have enough starting pitching depth to use Liriano to fill in other areas and still compete in the American League Central. First of all, that isn't true, unless the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox completely fall apart at the seams. Second, I don't see why the Twins would move Liriano now.

    Even if the Twins could compete without Liriano (and plus at least part of the return they'd receive) they are better off with him in 2011 than without, and Liriano isn't a free agent until after the 2012 season -- which makes him darned near as valuable as Zack Greinke. The time to trade Liriano may not be now, but rather this summer if the Twins fall out of the race, or next winter.

    Liriano's track record includes Tommy John surgery, so it's difficult to ignore the possibility of an elbow problem going forward, especially considering how long it took him to get his stuff back. But he's tremendously valuable -- certainly more valuable than Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com seems to believe.

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    Two days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-11
    There are two days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    M's add Delcarmen
    The M's came to an agreement with Manny Delcarmen Thursday, giving him a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training. Delcarmen, who pitched in Colorado and Boston last year, posted a 4.99 era with 39 strikeouts in 52 innings.

    The right-hander's biggest issue has been control, and last year it completely fell apart, walking 5.5 batters per nine innings. He has always thrown hard, though his average fastball has diminished from 95.5 miles per hour in 2008 to 93.3 in 2010 --...

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    Three days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-10
    There are three days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Sharing the links
    Larry Larue takes a look at how the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are handling their tough off-season decisions, and comes to the conclusion that it's not so bad being a Mariner fan right now.

    Tacoma Rainiers play-by-play man Mike Curto takes a look at the most likely M...

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    Four days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-09
    There are four days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    More on the lineup
    Many of you have suggested over the years that the M's bat Ichiro third in the lineup so his hits can drive in more runs. While I see the logic, sort of, I have never understood the war cry. Here's why.

    Ichiro is a pure singles hitter.

    Last season, which is very similar in so many ways to Ichiro's typical season in terms of situations, opportunities and rate stats, 82 percent of Ichiro's hits were singles, and only 70 percent of those singles left the infield. On 53 occasions that...

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    Five days

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-02-08
    There are five days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    The bullpen
    Chris tackled the topic of the lineup yesterday in his piece, and the other big question mark for the M's this season is going to be in who breaks camp as the six or seven big league bullpen arms. We can be sure that Brandon League will be there, but after that, questions abound. Aardsma and Kelley may not be fully healthy by Opening Day, the club may not be comfortable with the young guys like Dan Cortes, Josh Lueke, Tom Wilhelmsen, Edward Paredes, Cesar Jiminez, etc. -- especially in gross like tha...

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    Future: Albert Pujols

    By: Churchill/Crawford on 2011-02-07
    We're reacting to the possibilities as a result of the news that a superstar player and a National League club are having difficulties finding common ground on a long-term contract extension, and that the deadline set by the player is closing in fast. Remember, we're simply diving into potential, possibilities, both wild and realistic, and uncovering many stones that could be unveiled should this situation reach its highest points. In no way are we suggesting we've mentioned all of the possibilities, or that any of the approaches mentioned below are either legitimate, bona fide or concrete.

    Having said that, the angles taken below include practical thought. Well, most of them, anyway.

    And, yes, Pujols has the right to veto any trade as a 10-5 player, and has said he'd invoke those rights to block any deal. But whether that is actually true or not remains to be seen. Often agents let such news leak to strengthen their position and weaken the club's, and in this case it might work. But if the Cardinals still have Pujols in June and it appears there will be no long-term deal, all involved parties will have to reconsider.

    The St. Louis Cardinals have been trying to sign superstar first baseman Albert Pujols to a long-term contract extension that will k...

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    Six days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-07
    There are six days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    The lineup
    Opening day is still close to two months away, but speculation is the baseball fans ultimate tool, so taking a look at how the lineup could play out is always fun. I'm not gonna do a full lineup rundown, because that's saved for bad commentators (I know, that was a cheap shot, I apologize). But we can break it down objectively.

    Obviously, Ichiro is going to lead off, and since Chone Figgins still is probably the best option to hit next, he probably will. After that, the lineup gets interesting --...

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    Seven days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-06
    There are seven days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Links
    Larry LaRue of the Tacoma News Tribune has a bio report on Jack Wilson, and one on catcher Miguel Olivo. Here is Ichiro's from last week, and Full Story - Comments (10)
    A's system below average

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-02-05
    In projecting the expected future level of success of the Seattle Mariners, one of the most important pieces of the puzzle lies in examining the strengths and weaknesses of their key rivals -- the rest of the American League West.

    Prior to the 2011 season getting started, Prospect Insider is going to take a look at the organizational strength of each of the teams in the division and do our best to forecast what the future looks like for each club. We kicked things off in December by reviewing the Angels system here, and part two of this series of posts focuses on the Oakland Athletics.

    Heading into 2011, the A's have a very young ML team, especially on the mound, where their pitching staff had the youngest average age - an even 26 years old - in the majors last season. And that youngest staff in the majors pitched to the fifth best ERA in the majors at 3.58, which lead the AL. That success was with lefty Brett Anderson, who is their best starter when healthy, missing a couple of months with an elbow injury. After Anderson, the rotation is set with Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and most likely Brandon McCarthy. That group is very solid...

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    Eight days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-05
    There are 8 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Gross added to OF mix
    The Mariners announced via press release Friday that they have signed Gabe Gross to a minor league deal, adding the 31-year-old to the competition for the final spot on the roster that could come down to Ryan Langerhans, Jody Gerut and Gross.

    Gross, a left-handed hitter, is a former first-round pick but hasn't been good in any capacity since 2008 when he posted a .356 OBP versus right-handed pitching.

    His swing is still sound but he's lost some bat speed and carries limited value o...

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    Nine days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-04
    There are 9 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Around the blog-o-sphere
    Larry Stone has an excellent read comparing the parity in the NFL with baseball. Parity is such a controversial word with sports fans, so taking a look at just how much of it exists in baseball was very interesting.

    Shannon Drayer wrote about the maturity and growth of Felix Hernandez and the...

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    10 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-03
    There are 10 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Sweet Lou in SF
    He hasn't had anything to do with Seattle in a very long time, but it was still interesting to see that former Mariner manager Lou Piniella accepted a front office job with San Francisco this afternoon. The 67 year old Piniella resigned from the Cubs in August to spend more time with his family in Florida. It appears his responsibilities will be mostly be working with Giants GM Brian Sabean, and he won't be asked to do much outside of his home in Tampa. It has nothing to do with the M's season -- he...

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    11 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-02
    There are 11 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Around the internet
    Jerry Brewer of the Seattle Times penned a nice piece Sunday on the M's rebuilding process being a double-edged sword. It brings up a good question that we're sure to tackle all year long: How many losses is acceptable in 2011? 85? 90? 100?

    Forget about what you want or what you think will happen, how many wins will keep you on the fan roster?

    It might be a loaded question and one tha...

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    Future: Morrow vs. Lincecum

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-02-01
    Five years ago this June, nine clubs, including the Seattle Mariners, passed on University of Washington right-hander Tim Lincecum in the First-Year Players Draft. Lincecum lasted until the San Francisco Giants tabbed him at No. 10, and has since won two Cy Young Awards in the four full years he's been a big leaguer, as well as leading the Giants to the World Series title last October. And the rest, as they say, is history.

    But I'm here to suggest that perhaps it's not.

    Subscribers can check out the rest of the premium feature by clicking here.

    If you are not yet a subscriber, click here and become one....

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    12 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-02-01
    There are 12 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Paxton Update
    Larry Stone has an update on the progress -- or lack thereof -- on the M's attempt to sign James Paxton. Paxton, a left-hander out of Kentucky, was considered a major coup when he was selected in the 4th round of the 2010 draft, but for the second straight year, agent Scott Boras has played hard-ball with negotiations and at this point it seems unlikely he signs before spri...

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    13 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-31
    There are 13 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    The backup catcher battle
    Assuming Miguel Olivo is going to get the super-majority of the starts, one potential "battle" that hasn't been talked about much is the competition for who will back Olivo up. The race would seem to be between Adam Moore and Josh Bard, and most feel that Moore has the inside track. Both Bard and Moore spent time in Seattle last year, with neither putting up big numbers (.513 OPS for Moore, .634 for Bard).

    The real reason this is an interesting battle is to find out how the M's are g...

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    14 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-30
    There are 14 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Handbook Sneak Preview
    I thought I'd take this time to toss out a bit of a sneak preview of the handbook -- but I won't give away the details.

    First off, none of the top 10s (or 20s or 30s) put out there on the Mariners' top prospects resemble PI's point of view -- with the obvious exception of the top 3. But I can tell you that James Jones, who was No. 4 in the system for Keith Law, will not be No. 4 for PI.

    I'm not saying Law is wrong -- but I absolutely disagree that Jones is the fourth best prospec...

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    15 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-29
    There are 15 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Figgins on the move?
    Clearly the Mariners would like to move Chone Figgins and most of the $26 million over the next three years, and we discussed that a bit yesterday in the comments.

    Joe Stiglich of the Oakland Tribune reported it first, which flipped the switch on the speculation board. Stiglich reported that the idea was for Oak...

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    Figgins on the trade block

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-28
    The Seattle Mariners have had discussions with the Oakland Athletics regarding third baseman Chone Figgins, according to the Oakland Tribune's Joe Stiglich.

    Stiglich suggests that the A's could send back Kevin Kouzmanoff and a pitcher -- but we have to imagine cash would be involved....

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    16 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-28
    There are 16 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Law's Top 100 Prospects
    Keith Law's eagerly anticipated annual Top 100 was released at ESPN today, and the M's have four representatives on the list. Since it is Insider access only, I won't give you all of the names, but since it's become common knowledge because of wonderful things like Twitter, I will mention that the big surprise was the inclusion of James Jones at No. 100 overall.

    T...

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    17 days

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-01-27
    There are 17 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Organization Rankings
    Keith Law released his annual MLB organizational rankings, pitting the 30 teams against one another on a prospect scale. The Mariners come in on Keith's list at number 10, right in the neighborhood that PI would rank them. To the surprise of at least one of us at Prospect Insider (me), that is second in the AL West ... behind the Los Angeles Angels. You may recall that I was not so kind to the An...

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    18 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-26
    There are 19 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Top Prospects
    While the best of the rankings, if I do so say so myself, will occur both this week when Keith Law's are unveiled Wednesday and Thursday and next month when the Prospect Insider Handbook is released, the lists keep coming. This time in the form of MLB.com's Top 50, in which three Seattle Mariners prospects reside.

    Jonathan Mayo ranks Dustin Ackley at No. 5 behind Angels centerfielder Mike Trout, Tampa right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper and Phillies outfielder Domo...

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    AL West Movement: Volume VI

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-25
    Check out Rick Randall's countdown piece by clicking here.

    Three and a half weeks til pitchers and catchers report, if last week wasn't the time to get excited, this week definitely is. That is, of course, unless you're a fan of a certain team in southern California.

    {See WAR chat below}

    Oakland Athletics
    The signing of Andy Laroche won't get many headlines, but it could pay some nice dividends for the A's. Laroche -- a former Dodger prospect acquired in the Jason Bay trade -- was terrible in limited action last season, but was a 2.6 WAR player in 2009 and still can provide solid defense at third base. Laroche is no gimme -- and will have to beat out Kevin Kouzmanoff for playing time -- but don't be surprised if he makes an impact for Oakland in 2011.

    Los Angeles Angels
    Imagine being a surfer, waiting for a wave to appear. There's a few ripples, but nothing big enough for the surfer to attempt. Then,out of desperation, the surfer shoots a 747 plane out of a giant cannon into the ocean, causing a tsunami and killing the surfer. That's kinda what the Angels just did with the Vernon Wells trade, they killed their surfer.

    To be fair, Wells is coming off of a productive season, putting up a wOBA of of .362 helping him be a 4.0 WAR player. But he's 32, can't hit left-handed pitching, and even with the solid season was still overpaid based on his contract. Not to...

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    19 Days

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-01-25
    There are 19 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    BBWAA Awards Dinner
    The 88th annual Baseball Writers' Association of America dinner was held over the weekend in the Hilton New York, and there was a little Seattle Mariners flavor on the menu. Felix Hernandez was acknowledged for his American League Cy Young Award win, and took the opportunity to show again that he is quickly growing into the leader of this Mariners team. One of the least offensively supported pitchers in recent history, Felix made a point to thank his teammates saying, "My teammates were great this year,...

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    20 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-24
    There are 20 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Again on Vernon Wells
    Watching the development of the trade that brought Vernon Wells over to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera was fascinating. First we learned that Napoli was headed to the Blue Jays -- with no idea that Wells had anything to do with the compensation -- and the questions were whether or not Jeff Mathis could hit enough to be an everyday catcher (he can't but that's besides the point now). Next came the news that Wells was going to be involved, and the thoughts changed to just how much money Los...

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    21 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-23
    There are 21 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    More Milton Bradley
    I received a tip Saturday on the Bradley situation so I started checking in with contacts -- and even contacting some reporters I've never dealt with before -- and the buzz is that the woman he allegedly threatened may have been his wife.

    I wasn't sure Bradley was married -- and am still not -- because all I can think of is Bradley being accused of choking his pregnant wife five years ago or so, and then divorce became the next step.

    The tipster, a prominent member of an AL Central club...

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    22 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-22
    There are 22 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres. That's when the club starts their trek toward the 2012 World Series -- place your wagers at BetUs sports betting.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Wells and his contract? Championship
    OK, so I stole that line from Chris Crawford, but boy does it work here. The M's American League West rivals in Anaheim thought it was a good idea to go get Vernon Wells and most, if not all, of his $86 million contract that runs through 2014. The Halos sent Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera (worth $10-11 million combined) to Toronto in exchange, b...

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    Peguero gets bonus cut

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-21
    UPDATE: PI has learned from one club that the concerns on Peguero are likely health related, and that it's his elbow -- not his shoulder -- that has the Mariners worried, prompting the reduction in bonus money.

    The Seattle Mariners have cut Esteilon Peguero's bonus from $2.9 million to $1.1 million, reports Ben Badler, a move that usually means the player has some sort of a health concern that was not apparent at the time of the original agreement, or that there is an age issue.

    Badler writes that Peguero's age is still listed as November, 1993 and that other clubs indicated that Peguero had a shoulder problem. But a source close to Peguero told Badler that there is no issue with the shoulder, so we're right back at square one.

    Reducing the bonus of an international prospect is not unheard of; Wagner Mateo (eye) and Jesus Montero (unknown) are two prime examples.

    One international scout told Prospect Insider Friday morning that another reason a player could get his bonus changed is if he were to get into some sort of trouble, legal or otherwise.

    This news alone won't change the 17-year-old's standing amongst the rest of his prospect brethren in the M's organization, but if there is further evidence of an injury or age concerns, we may be making last-second adjustments to the Top 30....

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    23 days

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-21
    There are 23 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Position Change
    Something we haven't talked much about -- partially because it was fairly obvious -- was the announcement that Chone Figgins is in fact moving to third base. It's been mentioned a time or twenty that the move certainly improves Seattle at second, but just how good will Figgins be at third?

    Well, if he's able to duplicate 2008 or 2009, really good. Those two seasons, Figgins had a combined UZR of 27.2, including an unreal 16.6 in 2009. The two seasons before that, however, Figgins UZR at the positio...

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    M's add two

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-20
    The Mariners added outfielder Jody Gerut and left-hander Nate Robertson on minor league deals today, extending both invites to spring training.

    Gerut, a left-handed hitter, has bounced around quite a bit and had a few OK seasons, but at 33, has never been more than a reserve, and has often times been nothing more than a fifth outfielder, let alone a legit option in the American League as a No. 4 candidate.

    He only appeared in 32 games a year ago due to a heel injury, and didn't do much in 2009, either. But he went .296/.351/.494 in 100 games with the Padres in 2008 -- a performance he's lived off ever since.

    Gerut is a solid athlete and can help in center on occasion, but isn't exceptionally good defensively anywhere. With his bat carrying similar weight, his only use to the Mariners is in relief of a starter -- and no, Gerut should not make the team to "challenge" Michael Saunders. If Gerut makes the club and plays regularly early and it's not because of a long-term injury, Eric Wedge is an idiot.

    But I don't believe there is much chance that occurs, so Gerut may simply be battling Ryan Langerhans for the extra outfielder spot. Thing is, the roster is so bad, Gerut may fit somewhere.

    Robertson is probably not a better option than Luke French or Doug Fister at the beck-end of the rotation, though he's probably better than he showed last season in 101 1/3 innings, all but one of those frames for Florida. He has to be 100 percent healthy to h...

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    24 days

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-01-20
    There are 24 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Left Field
    With a lot of questions floating around about Michael Saunders' ability/ceiling and his hold on LF - especially in light of the Milton Bradley situation -- we thought it would be a good time to get down to some raw stats. Jason posted a great comment in yesterday's "Days" piece with Saunders' LH splits and what a realistic platoon split for the typical player is. Delving further into the statistical side of things, here is a look at what all American League LF hit last season: .273/.338/.430. Proving as the 3...

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    25 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-19
    There are 25 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season, lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Arbitration
    If you haven't heard, the M's agreed to deals with right-handers David Aardsma ($4 million), Brandon League ($2.25 million) and left-hander Jason Vargas ($2.45 million), avoiding arbitration with all three.

    As @LarryStone points out on Twitter Tuesday, Seattle hasn't gone to arbitration with a player since 2003 -- Freddy Garcia.

    Aardsma got about what I expected, though I did think League would get a bit more, and Vargas a bit less, but for payroll purposes, it all washed out about as I expect...

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    AL West Movement: Volume V

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-18
    To check out Rick Randall's countdown to spring training piece click here

    We are now well over halfway through January, and we are starting to see the "best of the rest" free-agents off the market now as well. That's not to say that the market is now barren, but outside of maybe a Carl Pavano, there's nothing out there that will make or break the division.

    [See WAR chart below]

    Note The last couple of pieces did not include the teams unsigned free-agents in the lost WAR. At this point, we can now consider those players less likely to come back, so that should explain the difference in a few teams numbers

    Oakland Athletics
    With the recent additions of Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes, the Oakland A's may have the best pitching staff from 1-12 of anyone, including Boston. Fuentes is one of the best LH relievers in the game, and Balfour misses bats and will enjoy the friendly confines of Oakland much more than Tampa Bay. I personally wouldn't have guaranteed Balfour a second year, but he makes the team better in 2011. Oakland and Texas could have an interesting battle for the division crown -- if the A's can score some runs.

    Los Angeles Angels
    The Angels have been given a hard time about this off-season, but don't forget that they made one of the biggest moves for 2011 last July, when they traded for Dan Haren. The right-hander has been worth 17 wins from...

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    26 days

    By: Rick Randall on 2011-01-18
    There are 26 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season, lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Non-Roster Invitees
    There are a couple of interesting non-roster arms on their way to Peoria in the next few weeks that M's fans should keep an eye on, and although the M's have officially extended Spring Training Invites to these 15 players so far, they still haven't begun to really reach outside the organization with their invitations. As such, there could be even more interesting names by the time February 13 rolls around, but as of...

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    27 days

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-17
    There are 27 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

    The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.

    Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

    In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season, lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

    Previewing the M's
    We'll have our own previews in February and March but The News Tribune's Larry LaRue started scouting the Mariners, so to speak, first on 3B Chone Figgins, then on LHP Jason Vargas here, CF Franklin Gutierrez Full Story - Comments (10)
    As of Today ... plus notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-15
    As the Seattle Mariners pass on Jeff Francis and watch Chris Capuano pick the New York Mets, don't fret, neither are worth a multi-year commitment and it shouldn't be difficult, barring injuries, for the club to cover 1000-plus innings before handing things over to the bullpen in 2011.

    With the possible exception of a a few minor league contracts doled out and a slew of non-roster invitees, chances are the you can find your 2011 Seattle Mariners right here.

    As of today, Ichiro and Chone Figgins will almost certainly lead off for the M's playing opposite corner in the field, with Jack Cust, Franklin Gutierrez, Milton Bradley and Justin Smoak providing the hope of run production. Brendan Ryan, Jack Wilson and perhaps Adam Kennedy will handle the second base and shortstop duties, while Michael Saunders shares time in left and veteran Miguel Olivo and second-year man Adam Moore handle the catching.

    There are, however, a couple of cracks of light where changes could be made. The M's signed Josh Bard to a minor league deal and could conceivably include Moore in a trade. Bradley could get his walking papers at any moment, though it appears it will wait until at least spring training.

    The pitching staff is unsettled and could be the most likely unit to change between now and Opening Day. Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush and Doug Davis are among the potential...

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    AL West movement: Volume IV

    By: Chris Crawford on 2011-01-11
    Hopefully everyone is enjoying the beginning to the new year. There hasn't been a ton of movement to report, but there was a transaction that might have solidified a team as the favorite -- and no -- it wasn't Adam Kennedy.

    [See WAR chart below]

    Oakland A's
    The last update stated that the Athletic off-season felt incomplete. Three weeks later, still incomplete. Yes, the offense will be better with the trades for Josh Willingham and David DeJesus and the signing of Hideki Matsui will improve the offense, and the pitching will again be formidable. I just expected a bigger splash by the Bay.

    Los Angeles Angels
    While Oakland failed to make a splash, the Angels have failed to even make a ripple. Unless you're related to Scott Downs, there's been very little to be excited about in Orange County. Three weeks ago it was too early to call the Angels off-season a failure. It's not too early anymore.

    Texas Rangers
    Well look who decided to wake up and join the party. They signed Adrian Beltre, they were a finalist for Matt Garza and they are heavily involved with Jim Thome. You can argue -- and you probably should argue -- that a six year commitment to Beltre might have been too much, but there's no denying he makes the 2011 product better. If tehy are able to land Thome, the DH position is upgraded as well, though how much better than the production Vladimir Guerrero provided is debatable. There is a firm favorite for the 2011...

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    Ryan's deal, notes

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-10
    UPDATE 2:22 PM The M's have signed Adam Kennedy to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Pretty nice insurance pick-up.

    As you all probably heard last week, Brendan Ryan has agreed to a two-year, $2.75 million deal with the M's, avoiding arbitration for both seasons. He will make $1 million this upcoming seasons and $1.75 million in 2012 and has performance bonuses for each year based on plate appearances. Basically, that means if he's the starter at either second or third, he makes more money. Seems fair to me.

    It's a good deal for both sides; the Mariners get some security in case of injury or lack of development, and Ryan could actually turn out to be a bargain if he finds his stroke again.

    Locking up Ryan is simply a case of covering the bases, figuratively, of course, but there's a good chance he's the starting shortstop heading into 2012, and could lead the club right into the Nick Franklin era.



    Last week the Mariners made it official that Chone Figgins would return to third base, and the most popular question in my inbox surrounded the timing of the announcement. Why now, why not in November or at the winter meetings?

    The answer is simple: The M's wanted to keep their options open in case a third baseman fell into their laps. But what the announcement also means is that Figgins is not going to be traded this offseason, if that was ever a possibility in the first place.

    For those that w...

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    Thoughts and Ideas

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2011-01-04
    Movement has been slow the past couple of weeks, so, naturally, we haven't had a lot to talk about. But there's always a lot to think about in the world of baseball, including what may or may not be in the offing.
    Here's what we've bee thinking of late, and the result of those thoughts as we cast out some inquiries on the M's and their future.

    Winter Leagues
    The winter leagues mean so little for young players in terms of numbers -- very much like spring training -- but it does give scouts an extra look at the talent. The Seattle Mariners sent numerous young players to the offseason circuits to get some extra experience, and here's what some evaluators had to say about them.

    Right-hander Dan Cortes has been Jekyl and Hyde, walking 21 batters and punching out 13 in 19 1/3 innings, but posting a 2.79 ERA. "He's one of those stuff guys who sometimes just can't hit the earth with an anville if they were leaning out of the space shuttle," said one scout. "The good thing is he's in the right role (as a reliever) but he's not ready for the big leagues."

    Newcomer Denny Bautista, said another scout, has the same issues with command. "With Bautista it's simple; his release point is everywhere, and it even appears to drop down when he gets frustrated, which can't be helpful when you are trying to throw strikes. If he could find a way to pound the zone, he's more than a useful arm, he might be a setup guy. Not sure if he will ever figure it...

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    The Mariners' New Year's Resolution

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-12-31
    It's a new year, and just like many-a-year's past, that's a good thing for fans of the Seattle Mariners. We talk constantly here about the hope, the legitimacy of that hope and the likelihood of the big-league club finally turning the page on what my friend Dave Clark has long called a "culture of losing."

    More on that as the year goes on, but one of the best things about New Year's is that very thing -- hope. If we didn't have any hope, we'd all be miserable fans forever, and may not be fans at all. But this organization has not made any significant, sustainable strides in terms of management, talent acquisition and performance since early last decade, and it's downright depressing.

    A loyal reader and a good baseball mind in his own right sent me an email earlier this week making a very simple yet crucial point. Since 2002, the year after the magical ride to 116 wins, the Seattle Mariners' attendance has dropped nearly 50 percent -- from just over 3.5 million (for the second straight season) to 2.085 million this past year.

    More of the same has been the problem at Safeco for years now, and if that continues to be the case, that attendance will continue to bottom out. This is how teams get into the kind of trouble that half the NHL's franchises are in, and the same issues the San Diego Clippers had in the NBA in the early 1980s.

    Many of those organizations end up changing cities at some point. I'm not suggesting the M's are anywhere near that kind...

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    The demise of the Angels farm system

    By: Rick Randall on 2010-12-29
    In projecting the expected future level of success of the Seattle Mariners, one of the most important pieces of the puzzle lies in examining the strengths and weaknesses of their key rivals -- the rest of the American League West.

    Prior to the 2011 season getting started, Prospect Insider is going to take a look at the organizational strength of each of the teams in the division and do our best to forecast what the future looks like for each club. We will start this series of posts here with a look with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

    Heading into 2011, Anaheim has a prospect who many feel is the best in all of baseball in outfielder Mike Trout. Trout, just 19 and still a season or two away from breaking into the big leagues -- profiles as a plus bat with five-tool potential. His advanced approach matches his physical tools where he grades as an 80 runner with bat speed that could produce 25-30 home runs per season.

    But, the fact of the matter is that after Trout, the Halos' system falls off considerably. So much so, that you could argue that the Angels No. 2 prospect may well be hard throwing reliever Jordan Walden. He's likely no worse than No. 4 or 5. Don't get me wrong, Walden looks like a very good relief prospect, perhaps a future closer, bu...

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    Latest on M's pitching search

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-12-28
    I tweeted early Monday that the M's have had talks with free agent left-hander Chris Capuano, who, coincidentally, broke off talks with the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend.

    Seattle could certainly use more pitching, and Capuano's stuff is still above average -- when 100 percent healthy -- but the question I keep seeing is "what is the point in spending money on a one-year starting pitcher?"

    Before getting to that, the reason why some are asking that is because the M's are certainly hitting a rebuilding season in 2011, and those asking the aforementioned question are wondering why it matters how good the M's pitching staff is in 2011 if the additions aren't under contract for 2012 and/or beyond, when the club may actually be able to compete.

    Here's why:

    1. You have to cover your bullpen
    You can't throw out Luke French, Doug Fister and Jason Vargas and expect to get through six and seven innings regularly, which more than taxes the relief corps, which, in turn, could hurt the potential trade value of Brandon League and David Aardsma, if they are with the club to start the season.

    2. 75 is better than 61
    Winning 75 games is respectable, 61 is not. So the better your club is, the better chance you can convince free agents, perhaps even the one-year starting pitcher(s) the club adds this winter, that Seattle might just be a solid place...

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    Weekend Notebook: The Rebuild

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-12-26

    UPDATE: Wanted to add this to supplement the 2012 Free Agent mentions below. It's a a partial list of potential trade targets around the league.

    I've been asked a ton the past several weeks whether or not I believe it's a good idea for the Seattle Mariners to go through an actual rebuilding year. I've responded with a resounding "YES" every single time, yet those same inquirers still aren't sure it's the right move.

    Most of the readers here at PI and across the blogosphere in Seattle understand, but the best way to explain to those who just aren't convinced is to describe the alternative.

    And the best way to do that, is, well, point to the Bill Bavasi regime and the four years the M's tried to "reload" rather than rebuild for a year or two.

    Rebuilding simply means the club is not going for the quick fix, and a quick fix doesn't mean the club will not continue to look for impact talent, it just means they won't sacrifice potential future pieces for 1-2 year answers that cost the club significant portion of the payroll.

    That seems to be the misnomer, or at least what isn't understood by everyone. It's still under the rebuild scheme if Jack Zduriencik goes out and trades for, say, Tim Lincecum, because Lincecum would be a part of the 2012 and 2013 rosters. But trading Felix Hernandez for him makes no sense.

    Trading Dustin Ackley, Nick F...

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    PI Chat Wednesday @ 7PM

    By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-12-22
    By clicking here you can now view the "replay" of Wednesday night's chat.



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    AL West movement: Volume III

    By: Chris Crawford on 2010-12-22
    Only 10 days left in the 2010 calendar year, which means we're only about two weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting in Peoria. Not a lot of changes from the week before, and the market is starting to dry up. Let's take a at what teams have -- or haven't -- added this off-season.

    [see WAR table below]

    Oakland Athletics
    Josh Willingham was a nice addition, but it still feels like the A's off-season is incomplete. W