Shortstop

Jack Wilson

Wilson is almost certain to come back, and the Mariners never were in serious talks for J.J. Hardy, which tells me more about what Zduriencik thinks of Hardy than Wilson. Wilson can't hit, period. He just can't, and won't. But he can field, and that's the premise that has Seattle convinced it's a good idea to bring Wilson back at nearly $5 million per year guaranteed through 2011.

I hate the idea, because I don't believe the game of baseball is about run prevention. I think it's about concentrated run differential, and defense is just one-third of the equation. Paul Marsh made a comment to me Friday that explains this well. You can't win games 0 to -1.

The top four teams in the American League in runs scored all made the postseason this year. In the NL, three of the top five did, and the team that didn't, St. Louis, ranked seventh and had two of the top four starting pitchers in the game in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

Since 1988 when the Los Angeles Dodgers finished 7th in the NL in runs scored and won the World Series, only six teams won it all and ranked below No. 5 in their league in runs scored -- six times in 21 years. And three of those six ranked in the top half of their circuit and were within 25 runs of 5th place. Only three times this decade did a team do it -- Marlins in '03, White Sox in '05, Cardinals '06, and they were all classic examples of winning a below-average division and simply outplaying their playoff opponents when it mattered.

Sure, that still counts, but the fact is, you have to score runs to be a real contender. Defense is great and all, and most of the postseason clubs over the past eight seasons have been at least average defensive teams, but none of the last 20 AL playoff teams won led by pitching and defense and didn't score at least 741 runs in a season. Seattle managed all of 640 this year. Jack Wilson's defense doesn't help them improve that.

Orlando Cabrera

Severe decline all the way around. I wouldn't be surprised if the OC received exactly zero guaranteed offers this winter.

Stephen Drew

The Diamondbacks say he's not available, but if Boston came knocking and offered the right arms and Jed Lowrie in return, Josh Byrnes may not be able to say no. I don’t see how Seattle can get involved, they just don't have the pieces.

Jason Donald

He’s coming off an injury and there are still some questions as to whether he can play shortstop long term, but when he's healthy he's always impressed.

Reid Brignac

As I keep saying, I just don't see how Tampa and the Mariners can match up on a deal for Brignac, and some scouts aren't convinced he's a shortstop. It'd be worth taking the chance, based on his tools, but Jason Bartlett is about to start getting expensive and the Rays may not pay him beyond 2010. Brignac could be had, I'm sure, but it's not a matter of simply throwing some relief arm at them.

Miguel Tejada

UZR has no clue whether Tejada is good or bad, but bet on the latter at age 35. He had a pretty solid year at the plate but that was in the Juice Box and in the National League. I wouldn't touch Tejada with someone else's payroll.

Third Base

Bill Hall

If Hall is the third baseman on opening day, it's either because of injury, or a left-hander on the mound. Hall's value will be determined by how much he hits, and I saw no sign that he’s going to provide much value to the M’s in 2010. Barring drastic changes, Hall is probably not on the roster in August.

Matt Tuiasosopo

As I've said all summer and fall, there's no chance, outside of mass injury problems, that the M's start the year with three rookies in the starting lineup. Tuiasosopo is certainly a candidate at this stage, but he's not exactly a reliable, proven commodity with such a great track record in the minors that you just take that chance and know that even if he fails, it won't be colossal.

Adrian Beltre

Speaking of no chance... Beltre is the surest thing to leave Seattle since Tom Hicks offered A-Rod $250 million to do so. Say goodbye now.

Jack Hannahan

He's unlikely to start, like Hall, unless it's an injury situation and a right-hander is on the mound.

Jose Lopez

This is the first thought if and when the M's sign or acquire a second baseman via trade. It could mean a trade for Lopez, but he's played some third base in the minors, and could play a passable defense there if need be, and his offense isn't any worse than what Beltre gave the M's the past two years.

Dan Uggla

Uggla isn't a player I see fitting in Seattle; he can't play second and his power gets sapped at Safeco, no doubt. Not to mention his rising salary and trade cost.

Pedro Feliz

Feliz is interesting. He can play defense, is a capable bat and if he came cheap enough would certainly fit. The league change and ballpark don't play in his favor, however.

Chone Figgins

Figgins is fools good. He had a career year in his walk season, big surprise. I don't see the near-.400 OBP as sustainable and he’ll be 32 before next year is under way. But the money is the big thing that keeps him away from Seattle. Someone's going to vastly overpay for Figgins, but it's not going to be Seattle, nor should it be.

Andy LaRoche

LaRoche might become trade-available if the Pirates remain delusional about the future of Pedro Alvarez defensively. And that availability may not come until mid-season, or even next winter. But LaRoche took a step forward this season, both defensively, where he's above average, and at the plate, where his peripherals and physical tools are starting to produce results.

LaRoche isn't an option for Seattle to start 2010, but down the line he very well should be someone clubs keep an eye on as he approaches arbitration and is priced out of Pittsburgh.

Left Field

Bill Hall

Hall shouldn't be an answer to any question the M's are asking themselves, but he is on the roster and he will be used in some capacity. Let's just hope it's a reserve role only and not out of necessity.

Michael Saunders

Saunders has more work to do at the plate, he's still having trouble with good velocity and breaking balls, but he understands the strike zone well and is as coachable as anyone in the organization. Saunders is by far the best in-house option in left, even if you assume he gives you .240/.300/.375 at the plate. He plays good defense and runs the bases well, and will get better offensively as the season goes.

Unless a clear-cut upgrade presents itself, Saunders should get at least 500 plate appearances – including a decent portion of the opportunities versus LHP. It's not like Bill Hall is hitting lefties lately, either -- .606 OPS in 2009.

Marlon Byrd

Byrd sucks, and he's lost two steps defensively since he can’t stay off the ding dong diet. Stop asking me about him.

Jason Bay

Gets on base, below average defensively, pull power, really expensive... yeah, no thanks.

Rick Ankiel

Ankiel would be an interesting platoon bat in left... okay, no, he wouldn't. Ankiel was exposed this season as a reserve player only.

Matt Holliday

I am not a Matt Holliday fan and believe Boston and New York, and everyone else should stay far away for the kind of money that is being rumored –- starting at six years and almost $100 million? I know Holliday is a better defender, but I think Bay is the better bet to remain somewhat value for the next 3-4 years.

Mike Cameron

If the M's needed a one-year centerfield stop-gap to set up the Dustin Ackley era, Cameron would be ideal. He's 37, still good defensively, still an asset with the bat, and will probably be so again in 2010. If I were the Yankees... yeah.

Jermaine Dye

Dye might be completely finished as a regular soon, if he isn't already. He can't defend anymore and his OPS away from his home park last year was just .770. In his prime, he was the ideal right-handed bat for Safeco, but he's lost a lot of bat speed and brings nothing else to the table in terms of baseball skills.

If he's your platoon righty, you're in business, though, but the M's can't afford to hand a part-time player the kind of money it's going to take to land Dye.

Gary Sheffield

Sheffield can still hit. The M's won't be interested because Sheff is a volatile character, but as a DH, Sheffield still has value at age 41.

Xavier Nady

Nady should be playing first base, but he hasn't been terrible defensively in left and right field. As a platoon player, Nady has value, but there's minimal return in the bat, despite a solid career OBP versus LHP.

Center Field

Franklin Gutierrez

Although I contend that if Ackley appears ready to take over an everyday job by April, 2011 that the M's should be selling high on Gutierrez while he's still got two years until free agency hits. A smart club might pay dearly for what Gutierrez brings defensively, and if he improves more at the plate in 2010, his value will be sky high. But there’s just no reason to explore that this winter, and no indication that Zduriencik will do so.

Right Field

Ichiro

He's definitely declined physically since he signed his new contract in 2007, but he's played much smarter offensively, at least in 2009, and the new regime is going to get the most out of Ichiro because there won't be any BS in the clubhouse. We can pencil in Ichiro for .350+ OBPs and solid defense for at least the next two years. After that, it could get ugly.

Starting Pitcher

Felix Hernandez

He's really good, and while I don't think he'll have inked a contract extension by the time Spring Training rolls around in February, I do think there will be enough indication that the two sides can get something done that when he reports to camp it will be in Peoria with the Mariners.

Besides, no one team has enough young talent to land Felix –- not if Jack is as wise as we hope he is –- and three-way trades, especially those of that magnitude, are extremely difficult, and almost unheard of in baseball.

Ryan Rowland-Smith

He'll be back, barring a trade, and should be a solid contributor. I think RRS is a solid No. 4, though he could following Felix in the rotation.

Ian Snell

Snell is an enigma with million-dollar stuff and a two-cent everything else. His delivery comes apart early and often, his command is poor due to an inconsistent release point and no feel for pitching. Snell is a candidate to use Rob Johnson exclusively to build a rapport with a catcher with at least some experience. Snell has to win the job, but he's got to show more fight in spring training, regardless of the results.

Brandon Morrow

For the second straight spring, Morrow will show up to camp as a starting rotation candidate. Let's hope he can avoid getting the flu and a sore elbow this time. Both have occurred each of the past two March's.

Luke French

Not a Luke French fan; I think he's a No. 5 with a chance to be a four, but there’s just a good a shot that he's a No. 6, and he doesn't have the kind of stuff that translates to relief work.

Jason Vargas

Vargas > French.

Carlos Silva

Danielle Lawrie > Silva, not close.

Doug Fister

Fister has a chance to be a legit big-league starting pitcher, and over the long haul could prove to be more than just a No. 5 or swing arm. There’s more velocity to be drawn, but the key is for him to continue to work on getting sink on the fastball. Without plus velo, he's going to have to avoid the middle of the plate, and since his control is good but his command is average at best, the sink can keep him –- and get him –- out of trouble.

Rich Harden

Harden is a great idea but the geography isn't going to be nearly enough to sway him to sign in Seattle. The M's are going to have to show they are going to be contending, and I'm not sure his agent, Arn Tellem, is that persuasive, nor would he want to be. Harden is likely to go where the money is, but is likely stuck with a one-year incentive-laden deal wherever he goes.

Ben Sheets

It sounds like Sheets is close to a deal with Texas, but the Rangers could easily be outbid by Seattle. The problem is, if you're Sheets and you are coming off shoulder problems, do you want to pitch in Seattle, particularly in April and May, or in Texas?

Erik Bedard

Not impossible, but I don't see Bedard returning unless he's out on the market for months and comes back to re-establish his value. I know the Dodgers are interested in talking with his agent, and so is Philadelphia and the Cardinals.

Randy Wolf

Wolf would be a nice fit, I think, but he's likely to cost a little too much for Seattle's checkbook and loves the National League and the state of California.

Derek Lowe

Trading for Lowe would be nuts for the M's, as he's owed $45 mil over the next three seasons. He's still valuable, but that’s a steep payroll hit.

Brad Penny

Nah. Some of you asked, so I included him here, but what's the point?

Relief Pitcher

David Aardsma

I'd trade Aardsma this winter if someone offered me a solid deal. I wouldn't even need the trade return to equal what would normally be expected for a closer coming off a season in which Aardsma was probably the second or third best closer in the AL. I don't see him coming close to repeating his '09 season.

Mark Lowe

Ditto for Mark Lowe, though if I deal one of them, I probably hang onto the other.

Shawn Kelley

Should be able to handle the 7th or 8th inning if he makes progress with his command.

Chris Jakubauskus

A long man, but that's his only role in a good pen.

Randy Messenger

Not a fan, but remember in 2008 when we all asked "how come Messenger only throws 90?" Thanks to Dwight Bernard, the departed Dave Wallace and big-league PC Rick Adair, Messenger is sitting 91-94, touching 95 and throwing more strikes, too. Useful arm, if nothing else.

Garret Olson

This is probably Olson's role now, and if he embraces it and focuses on developing pitches to get lefties out consistently, he could be a useful piece. Probably enough here to keep the M's off the market for the lefty relievers, unless Joe Beimel comes to mind.

Sean White

Like Kelley and Messenger, he's added velo from the year before and when his mechanics hold up, he's a good 6th inning reliever. I do wish he'd work on getting the sink back on his fastball, though, as a lot of that went away with the velo's arrival.

Nick Hill

Hill started in West Tenn, and because he's not purely a relief option, could help in the rotation as well. But it's hard to imagine him breaking camp with the 25-man roster unless it's out of the pen.

Josh Fields

Fields is a spring full of strikes away from earning a role out of camp.

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