With Seattle playing so poorly, fans have no other alternative than to look forward. Luckily, the 2008 Draft is just a month away, and that’s always a special time for true fanatics, particularly after landing a jewel at #11 overall in 2007.

This year the M’s stand at #20. Mr. Churchill’s recent mock draft suggested Yonder Alonso to be the best fit should he fall just far enough for the opportunity. I agree, and for several reasons.

Judging by the current needs (offense) of a team desperate to contend for the playoffs now, i.e. this year and next, it’s pretty safe to say the odds are in favor of Seattle selecting a hitter. With the last two selections being pitchers and with no glaring holes in the major league staff, I can’t see the M’s going for a quick fix hurler. And why would they? Several spots in the lineup are likely to be open as soon as this season as Vidro, Sexson and Ibanez all go up for adoption this winter when their contracts expire. It also just so happens, as Churchill mentioned, that this particular draft is corner heavy, specifically amongst the top 40 prospects.

That same token brings up another point. With that many holes potentially coming so quickly, it stands to reason Seattle would select someone who’ll move quickly enough to be ready by then, if not sooner. That requires an older, polished player, likely a college junior or senior who shows the advanced offensive ability to warrant a quick ascension. A great example is Washington star Ryan Zimmerman, who was a major leaguer the September after he was drafted.

And that point leads to yet another. Whoever Seattle does select will have to sign quickly in order to move quickly. Waiting around until the mid-August deadline to square away the deal essentially guarantees your selection will not make an appearance that season. That leans Seattle’s preferences toward selecting a college senior over a junior. A player that won’t be able to return to college has a much greater incentive to sign.

Those are three pretty basic ideas, but it’s likely the organization’s current payroll will affect the selection as well. The M’s simply aren’t used to the budget being at its current level and though they are, in fact, a large-market team, their 2007 profits of $17M plus were pretty much wiped out by a player payroll increase of about $22M. With attendance sagging the way it has (only 8th in the AL), this could be one way the team saves money.

Which happens all the time. Select a player with weaker bonus demands and the team improves its chances of an easy sign while simultaneously saving money. A college senior most certainly fits the bill in this regard. Again, without the ability to begin or return to college, a player has less leverage over bonus demands and is, again, more likely to sign soon after draft day.

Unfortunately, there are few, if any, college seniors with high offensive ceilings. All of NCAA’s top talents at the plate, including Alonso, are juniors and the only comparable senior is Cal’s David Cooper, who’s ceiling is considerably lower.

Still, Alonso works. Despite being a junior, his intelligent approach to hitting tops that of many major league veterans, several of who currently grace Seattle’s deity-forsaken lineup. Furthermore, Alonso’s offensive ceiling justifies his selection in the middle 1st round and the extra cash it would take to lure him away. So assuming he falls, Seattle should have no qualms about pulling the trigger.

My only qualm is the likelihood that Alonso is even available by #20 overall. As good a fit as he would be for us, he’s just as fine a fit for several teams drafting ahead. In fact, he’s pretty much Billy Beane’s prototype slugger and Oakland selects at #12, right around where most scouting services rank him.

Players that profile similarly to Alonso include fellow juniors Justin Smoak and Allan Dykstra, along with Cooper, but Smoak isn’t likely to last beyond the top 10, while the latter two are probably reaches at #20. The one dark horse candidate, Pedro Alvarez (hamate bone, bonus demands) won’t fall past the free spending Mets, as Churchill so astutely pointed out.

If I were to make a prediction based on the above, I would guess management throws us a curveball, depending on who falls and who doesn’t. There’s no reason why middle infielders Gordon Beckham and Jemile Weeks can’t have their names called when Seattle’s time comes. Though they may not have the power presences of an Alonso or Dykstra, they’re both polished prospects with something solid to offer at the plate. Either one can fill in at 2nd, which may become a need sooner than we want to think and if not, either one can plausibly be moved to left field. With Ibanez still putting up impressive numbers, most can rationalize the M’s extending the fan-favorite another couple years, but should that be the case, expect him to leave the outfield for good, possibly filling in at 1st, more likely at DH.

Whether he stays or goes, it would leave left field open, but with the next best option being Jeremy Reed, Seattle might feel a bit more inclined to draft a quick replacement. (Saunders, as impressive as he is, probably won’t be ready until mid-09’) That’s more likely now to come into play with Johjima sewing up the catcher position and Clement firmly entrenched as the DH/1B and backup catcher.

It’s a roundabout way of fulfilling a need, but it’s certainly a nice fall-back plan in the scenario that Alonso and/or Smoak don’t pull an “Aumont.” (Too many references?) Since we’re looking at college hitters, it isn’t at all impossible that at least one of the four juniors falls to #20. The M’s would get their value, fill a hole and continue their recent string of successful drafts. But should none of them fall, it may still leave Josh Fields.

But I can’t really see that one happening. And by that I mean I can’t logically see it happening. Fields, as good as he is, is only a reliever and while I can’t deny that he’ll sign quickly, move quickly and essentially be instant help to any bullpen, one just has to wonder how much he could really help Seattle. Fields wouldn’t be a closer any time soon, maybe not at all. Even behind Putz are Morrow and Lowe; the latter of who figures to be all the way back pretty soon (7 K, 0 BB in last three appearances). It’s like using three people to screw in a light bulb: hilariously impractical. So if it comes down to wanting an instant middle reliever, can’t one conceivably be found after the first round anyway?

That’s not to say the M’s won’t nab Fields, especially if he’s the only quick fix left. We’re dealing with an organization that traded one of the league’s top relievers straight up for Horacio Ramirez, so it’s not as if lapses in judgment are sparse with the current personnel. I just don’t see how the pick necessarily suits their immediate needs. Honestly ask yourself: How much can Fields possibly help us? Even if he managed to make the majors by mid-July (which would be insanely fast), he’d stand to pitch what, 30 innings? And who’s to say they’ll even be good innings? No. I don’t see that happening, no matter how much they scout him. Unless …

Unless it’s meant to push Morrow back to the minors. Call me crazy, but having three holes in the rotation after 2009, without a soul to fill them, isn’t a great plan. Even extending Bedard still leaves you with two, vacated by Washburn and Batista, and going out into the free agent market doesn’t make sense if there are better, cheaper alternatives waiting and ready. Having Morrow finally develop into the #2 starter we’ve been waiting for would ease the transition from 09-10’ and would certainly look better after passing on Lincecum. Otherwise, you’d be seeing a repeat of Pittsburgh’s draft gaffe last year. We all know what happened then and needless to say; the GM who made the pick doesn’t work there anymore.

Of course, none of this may even matter by June anyhow. Seattle is in last place, eight games back. EIGHT. And it’s frickin’ May. Should that get pushed to double digits by draft day, you’d only have to remember three words: best player available.