Now that the Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien are in the big leagues, seemingly for the long haul, what should be expected of them?
Click Here for the scouting report on Clement, as seen in the 2008 Prospect Insider Handbook, and Click Here for the scouting report on Balentien.
Not stardom, at least not this year. While neither is necessarily raw, they are inexperienced at the Major League level and will need several hundred at-bats to become acclimated.
By acclimated, I really mean that both Clement and Balentien will need to go around the block a few times, be forced to make adjustments as pitchers adjust to them as hitters, and be able to sustain strong performances.
But as far as 2008 goes, I expect a lot of ups and downs from Balentien, with several multiple strikeout games to go with his good power.
He’ll play solid defense and won’t clog up the base paths. He may steal a bag on occasion, too.
Defensively, Clement is still going to show areas where he’s below average, but he’s not going to catch much anyway.
With the bat, Clement is a good fit for Safeco Field with good pull power and has been better using the rest of the field since the second half of last season. That progress may allow him to hit for a little more average than originally thought.
Clement is much more selective at the plate than is Wlad, but will also pile up his share of strikeouts. Clement fanned just 12 times in his stay in Triple-A, perhaps serving as evidence that when he’s locked in his plate skills are good enough to produce much better contact rates than was previously scouted.
2008 Projections:
Jeff Clement - .270/.330/.450
Wladimir Balentien - .250/.300/.420
It doesn’t appear that Michael Saunders (No. 5 in the PI Handbook) is going to be promoted to replace Balentien in Tacoma’s outfield and it’s also probably too early for Adam Moore (No. 8 in the Prospect Handbook) to take Clement’s spot as Rob Johnson’s catching partner.
Erick Monzon has already arrived in Tacoma to take up one of the vacated roster spots. No word as of Wednesday night who the other catcher is going to be, but the smart money is on Moore or organizational backstop Luis Oliveros
To get more scouting reports on Saunders, Moore and the rest of the top prospects in the Mariners farm system, Download the 2008 Prospect Insider Handbook Here.
Great stuff Jason. Scouting reports are a lot of fun to read.
Wlad with a strong showing his first night. Jeff might see some starts behind the plate if Kenji continues to be an absoltue black hole in the lineup.
I saw you said Almonte is with the org - why is he not in Wisconsin? Why only short season?
Any idea what kind of player Seattle will target in the draft?
Re: Almonte
Several factors go into an organization deciding whether an 18-year-old goes to full-season ball or not, including their spring showing, maturity on and off the field (more important than one might think), the makeup of the rest of the Rattlers roster, injuries…
With Almonte the club just wanted to work with him everyday in Peoria before shipping him off to play games, which kind of interrupt instruction.
When it’s time for Almonte to put the instruction to work, he’ll be on a roster. But that’s not likely to happen, barring injuries to a Rattlers outfielder or two, until late June when the short-season clubs start play.
Re: Draft
The Mariners public stance on the draft is always “best player available.”
But all things being equal, they’ll probably stay away from the high school pitcher in the first round.
Coming into the season, I really liked Christian Freidrich and a few other prep arms that may have been there at 20, but the M’s are most likely looking for bats, unless a college arm gets to them that they cannot pass up.
Jason
Unbelievable, they did something right for once since embarking on this “go for broke” mode starting with the Bedard trade. These moves put Balentien in RF full time and Clement at DH for 75-80% of the time with a little catching and shoved Vidro to the bench. What it doesn’t cure is Ichiro, Johjima, and Sexson still being in slumps. The call ups were painless but the next moves will be costly and Bavasi trades always hurt us. One move which wouldn’t cost us anything would be to bring Reed up for LF, move Ibanez to 1B, move Sexson to the bench, and DFA Cairo. Leaves kind of a weird bench but at least we get through this year with out giving up the farm.
It should not be a big surprise to anyone that Sexson and Vidro are big black holes and we’d be stuck with them this year as it was talked about enough in the off season. So the worst has happened with our position players and there is no turning back as we “go for broke”. Since they actually seem to be serious this year, they might as well trade some more of the farm for a big LH bat for LF, move Ibanez to 1B, move Sexson to the bench, and DFA Cairo. They can straighten everything else out in the off season when Sexson and Vidro are gone and they can also be active in FA. Do you see any other way to get through this without giving up more of the farm?
Jason,
Sounds like there are a lot of glowing reports coming out of the M’s farm system this season. Typical early season fluff, or are there guys like Tui and Saunders who are making genuine progress and turning themselves into real prospects?
Hey Church you heard anything about Michel Inoa, 16 year old Dominacan hitting 94 on the radar gun already. There was a short tidbit on ESPN and said at least a dozen teams are in on him. Do you know if the M’s are one of the teams?
Wow we could have hired 60 scouts {or} development coaches at 50 k a year for what we are sending Wilky home with? I allways hear how scouting and development are very important if so get the madman Bumbling Bill out of here so we wont keep giving {guaranteed} money to stiffs like Wilky and develop some players from the draft.
Hey Jason,
regarding the draft, I hope you are right about the draft. I am really hoping for Wallace out of ASU, to be our 1B of the future. Do you think he will get to us? and what other hitters do you think will be in consideration in that range? Raben from Miami?
I don’t think Wallace gets to 20, no. But we’re still 5 weeks away, a lot can change.
Wallace and David Cooper are two guys I am looking at for the M’s right now.
Thanks for the answers to my questions, Jason.
I dont know if we would want Wallace. I go to ASU and have a chance to watch him play regularly and he can mash for sure, but he is a fat load and looks like he is only going to put on more weight. He also is a known steroid user, and has some character issues. He punched a girl in the face while he was in high school. Might be from the ‘roid rage.
wow ASUBoyd, I did not know that about Wallace, I was hopeing the M’s would take him, now I sure don’t. Since you’ve seen them play what do you think of Ike Davis?
I’m personally hopeing we go back to CAL this year and go after either David Cooper 1B or Tyson Ross SP.
Jason, Keith Law recently reported that Alverez is looking for at least 8 Mill to sign. And Hosmer is looking for a similer amount. If that causes them to fall in the draft do you think the M’s take them? Thanks.
Wow we could have hired 60 scouts {or} development coaches at 50 k a year for what we are sending Wilky home with? I allways hear how scouting and development are very important if so get the madman Bumbling Bill out of here so we wont keep giving {guaranteed} money to stiffs like Wilky and develop some players from the draft.
Lessee. Three million.
That’s $1 million in beer and season tickets for Jason. $500K in beer and season tickets for me, and $1.5 million in beer and season tickets for Cujo.
As long as the season tickets for Cujo are for a GOOD team, he might like them.
Jason,
Are you familiar w/ Saltalamacchia? Compared to Clement, who has the better bat and who is the better defensive catcher? Thanks
thought norton’s release was a little strange.
unless reed is in phase 2.
willie ballgame is not a long term answer to
the 4th outfielder. at least not in my book.
re: 01vdubs
I’m really high on Davis. He has a very underrated bat. He is batting over .400 right now, and has hit 15 home runs compared to Wallace’s 12. He also has hit 21 doubles, Wallace has 7. Whether that is from his athleticism, or what, it is still impressive. Not much of a basestealer, only 5 for 6 on the year, doesn’t make many mistakes however. Davis seems to project as a corner outfielder, or a 1B.
He has a very respectable 24bb:25k ratio too.
He pitches out of the pen in addition to playing the field.
I’m a fan of Wallace’s bat, obviously, but there is no way he can stick at 3B in my opinion, he is definitely a 1B and the red flags are pretty big.
I like Davis a lot, too. Maybe more than Wallace, but a few more scouts prefer Wallace at the plate.
I don’t like Davis’ swing, however.
re: wooster
Very similar situations with Salty and Clement. I think Salty has a better chance to hit for average consistently, but power wise, Clement might have him, but it’s very close.
And Clement’s showing in April down in AAA might suggest he’s closed the gap in batting average area.
Salty has a park advantage in Texas, so the numbers could be skewed a tad in that manner, but both bats are similar.
Defensively, I’ve heard more positives about Clement, based on his willingness to work overtime.
In terms of the draft, I think it would be best for the Mariners both short term and long term to go after a college 1st baseman. We’ll need a replacement for Sexson after this season and even if Raul were to take over for him he is no long term solution at the position. That is why guys like Wallace and David Cooper make sense in my mind at #20, especially since they are both left-handed bats.
Wallace’s swing seems very consistant to me.
I just don’t like all the steroid rumors that fly around with him. It seems like everyone in the student athlete center knows he does them.
He is a surprising 13/15 on SBs too.
We have another massive kid who plays 1B, Kiel Roling. I am not sure how he projects, but he sure is a giant.
What’s the word on Allan Dykstra? Where does he project in the draft?
Everything I have heard is that Dykstra is a top 40-50 talent.
Where he goes in the draft depends on his own signability and the signability of others ahead of him.
and it’s Davis’ swing I don’t like.
Right, I was just commenting on Wallace.
I haven’t checked out Davis’ too much. Will Seattle redraft Josh Satow again and try to sign him?
I don’t think they are against re-drafting, but often times the relationship between club and draftee is a bit off after negotiations went nowhere.
Thanks for the response Jason.
How do you see the club dividing up Clement’s playing time? Hopefully he’s catching 2 times a week, and DHing 4 times a week (so playing 6 out of 7 games) - is that a bit optimistic?
Watching Vidro bat in the 5-hole is so depressing…
I think the more Johjima struggles the more Clement catches, up to 2+ times per week.
If Joh is hitting, he’s going to catch 5-6 days a week still.
McLaren is too stupid to avoid pidgeon holing Clement in as a kid who can’t hit lefties, so he’s probably going to sit him EVERY SINGLE TIME A LEFTY US ON THE MOUND.
Memo to McLaren: Raul Ibanez has PROVEN that he sucks versus MOST lefties.
Clement has not, and was hitting .391 against them in AAA.
Jason, i dont think McLaren is stupid enough to think Clement cant hit lefties.. a simple look at the splits will destroy that idea.. and i have a tough time believing a major league manager wont at least take a look at the splits..
But you’re right.. he wont face lefties, cause i dont think McLaren wants to cut ways with Vidro yet.. so the L-R platoon is his way of rationalizing it..
Anyway, whats the deal with Johjima.. what are the scouts telling you?
He could have simply looked at the splits for Raul Ibanez and Brad Wilkerson, too, and treated them the exact opposite of the way he actually did.
No reason to think McLaren is going to wise up now.
re: Johjima
Joh’s career BABIP is around .290 and he’s at .187 for the year right now. He’s bound to post much better numbers across the board based on BABIP alone.
But his line drive percentage is down to 16 (career 19.4) and he’s popping a lot of balls up versus hitting fly balls — up to 25 percent versus 13 % career — and overall his groundball rate is up a bit to 48.
He’s not that far from being a .280 hitter again, really. Shave a few groundballs into line drives, make a few more of those popups something else — anything — and his average gets better.
His IsoP will get a boost from the above as well.
But Johjima is hitting the ball hard in enough plate appearances where scouts aren’t all that worried about 2008.
He hasn’t lost anything significant off his bat speed, he’s seeing 3.4 pitches per plate appearance - his exact career average.
But he is being pitched differently this year. In year’s past, he was getting a steady diet of a curve-change combination, two pitches he has proven he can handle (.300+ averages versus both types since 06.)
This year he’s seeing more sliders and more fastballs. This doesn’t mean he can’t hit fastballs, it just means he’s looking curve-change and getting something harder more often than the last two seasons.
It would behoove Johjima and the Mariners for him to be more selective. Not for walks, but so he can simply be in better counts in which to hit.
If he has a good idea that a fastball is coming, he’ll can it, and with power.
In 2007, Johjima hit .289/.326/.472 on fastballs overall. He hit .325/.366/.497 on fastballs in favorable counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1,3-1, 3-0), but just .244/.256/.352 on fastballs in pitcher’s and neutral counts (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2).
Seems the pitchers made the adjustment sometime in the middle of last season and Johjima hasn’t adjusted yet.
But physically, he’s fine. He’s 31, not 38.
Vidro should be our DH only when Johjima is not catching.
His primary role should be to sit on the bench and pinch-hit for Ibanez when a Lefty reliever is brought in (which will never happen). That and when Sexson is going through one of his 0-20 slumps…
If that were true, wooster, Burke would be irrelevant.
When Johjima isn’t catching, you can DH Clement and use Burke behind the plate.
In no scenario, with the current roster, should Vidro start games.
Jeff at LookoutLanding was commenting on fangraphs charts about Johjima. The good news is that Johjima is demonstrating a better approach at plate than in the past. Hopefully he keeps it up and gets rewards for it.
I’m not sure I agree his approach has been better.
The numbers (pitches per PA, swings at balls out of zone, etc) are derived from too small a sample size.
But there is a lot to the bad luck thing…
Yeah, and the home road splits is just wacky.
Look at Sexson’s home-road splits, ek.
Talk about wicked.
Someone put on their Sexson suit and hit for him in Seattle. Geez.
As long as it ain’t “Pepi”
Maybe a system wide thing? Cause Adam Moore is hated by his home ballpark in West Tenn as well.
BTW, Danny Carroll still alive?
Thanks for the responses, Jason.
So…M’s today - Bedard seems to be sitting 88-89 with his fastball.
Is this an issue?
I think it could be an issue. I’m willing to wait until he has 50 innings under his belt, however.
He started off last year 88-91 as well and turned it up as the season went along.
Yeah, I was going to wait until later on in the game to ask, but he started getting slapped around early when trying to put away hitters with the fastball.
It seems to be sitting 88-89, but has been as low as 86 on gameday. Hit 90 once.
I remember you scouting report saying he usually was around 91-93 - a significant difference when you’re a FB/CB guy.
I was going to write some of it off to rust, but his command seems pretty solid. I don’t know if his arm strength isn’t where it usually is or what.
That would be a bummer if it remains..
Yeah, sitting 91-93 and hitting 94-95 when he wants to… that’s the Erik Bedard the Mariners traded away far too much talent for.
The one we’re watching right now is one they made a HUGE mistake on.
Sigh. Being a Mariners fan hasn’t been easy for awhile.
Maybe it is something temporary with him..
If this is some injury issue, or Bedard has somehow simply lost some of his stuff, do we just let him walk and chalk it up to another long list of losses by the M’s FO? Or do we resign him and he shows us what it would be like if we had signed Zito - guy slowly losing his FB, and his CB loses it’s bite shortly after.
Also, have been watching the High Desert Mavs since they have some compelling prospects on their roster.
I remember reading you did not like Mangini - and boy has he sure looked lost up there. He has struck out 33 times in 26 games. Not many hard hit balls. He is 22 - if he doesn’t show anything this year, do the M’s move him up next year just because of his age? Is he a prospect? From what I understood, he was taken in the 2nd because his college bat was supposed to transfer well to the wood, and he was supposed to make a quicker impact than others. Swing and a miss?
Mangini lacks a lot of things in that swing, one of them being top-end bat speed.
I don’t think he’s a good prospect. He walks a lot, and while I don’t mind the Ks, it needs to be accompanied by a lot more power than he’s shown.
Natural progression would push him to AA by the start of 09, yes.
Just like with Tui, there are reasons to be a little more patient. With Tui it was his age and inexperience in baseball as his only sport. With Mangini it’s the wood bat - he hasn’t adjusted his swing enough. He’s used to being able to get around on anything, but pitchers are jamming him in.
He won’t be blocking anyone in AA in 2009 unless the M’s draft a 1st round college bat that warrants AA time to START 2009 — highly unlikely, so I’d push him.
I’d push him up later this year no matter what his numbers looked like.
Very interesting, thanks a lot.
I have a similar question to the one I asked about Almonte - Where is Nolan Gallagher? Is he injured?
I remember him dominating Everett, then doing ok once he was called up to Wisconsin. I can only guess he must have gotten hurt ? Also, what do you think of him? I have never watched him pitch, but he posts some pretty solid K:BB rates.
Actually - that is not true. I saw him play against ASU and we absolutely lit him up last year.
Gallagher is hurt, yes. Surgery, too, I believe.
Great.
Well… anything in the good news department we can touch on? Anything interesting stirring in the foreign free agent market?
nope.
Sweet.
We are in last and 2 teams in are division threw in the towel this winter Texas and Oakland but they still have a better record then are 119 million dollar payrole can you explain this to me Jason? Is it roster managment are just chosing bad players are managers what exactly is going on that Bavasi keeps being wrong on? Could you please answer i havent a clue?
Pineda is doing very well. in 5.1IPs, 7Ks and only 1 BB. Thats 1ER in 17 IPs, 3 BBs, and 16 Ks. To bad you have to look down to A ball to find some good news in this organization.
Aumont is pretty much dominating in Wisconsin. If it continues, would the M’s promote him to the Mavs in June?
Yeah, I need to get more on Pineda to see if his stuff matches his early results.
Re: Aumont
He’s going to be handled a little bit like Tillman was a year ago, but I don’t see an early June promotion since he’s only going 3-4 innings at a time right now.
Butler and Tillman got some innings in their draft year and went into ‘07 with a jump start.
But Aumont is pretty good, and I think his stuff helps him handle the Cal League much more than Tillman’s stuff helped him.
I don’t see any , barring injury, Aumont doesn’t see High Desert this season.
hmm…well the Bedard we got now seems to have dominated the last two games pretty easily - i’d say that’s what we gave up a lot of hopeful but unproven talent for of which most won’t even make it to the big leagues. Now when Bedard gets his fastball up to the 94mph range - that should be scary.
Bedard has to dominate for SEASONS for that trade to be even remotely OKAY.
#54 I guess Sherrill leading the league in saves is unproven talent? The guy we gave the farm up for and 2 major leaguers for has allready been on the D.L. and we are barely a month into the season. Jason you never answered my question why cant we win? Is it roster managment are just plain bad choices of who we give are money to as free agents and other signings?
It’s both, plus health.
Losing Putz and Bedard hurt a lot.
But McLaren isn’t doing his job well at all and the the roster isn’t but an 85-win roster maximum anyway.
Is that 85 on paper? Looking at this team play, they’ll be lucky to win 75.
Jason are you planning on doing a couple of draft previews this year like last year? I really liked last years coverage, and if I remember right I think you started putting out the reports around this time. Thanks.
3 doubles for Triunfel today. Hopefully this sparks the power surge. Not overly important, but it is nice to see.
Thank goodness the M’s have some good minor leagues to watch. The big club is terrible to watch and straight boring. They suck all the fun out of baseball.
I have a Mock Draft in the hopper.
These are a little tough to do, because I haven’t seen many of these guys, so I have to create these 100% from what I am told by those who have seen the players.
Expect that probably Wednesday or Thursday before I take a rather lengthy break.
Thanks, I’m looking forward to it.
Looking forward to my lengthy break, eh?
Take the M’s front office with you.
lol no, but enjoy it.
sounds like yohn is looking forward to me being gone awhile.
lol.. you know what i meant by the unproven talent - lets not get into an english argument for crying out loud hehe. Besides - if Sherrill was on our team now he’d only be brought in to face LH batters and that would probably be it as that’s all he was used for before.
The people against the trade think we gave up too much for him while I disagree but it’s an old argument. We most likely, playing the odds, gave up a reliever, OF’er and 1 pitcher for him as those 3 we gave up will not all make it to the big leagues and have good careers. Law of averages says 1 doesn’t even make it, 1 falters and may or may not last, while one sticks.
Also - no reason to believe that Bedard will not dominate for years to come - all that remains is the extension to be worked out and all is well.
You lost me at Bedard.
There are lots of reasons to believe he won’t dominate for years to come.
Lamda, you really believe there’s “no reason” to believe he won’t? I certainly think there’s a chance, but I’m not confident in it by any means. He has too many health issues for me to count on him long term. Your “law of averages” about the pitchers we sent for Bedard could just as easily apply to Bedard’s ailments. There’s too many things that can jump up and bite him.
I really hope I’m wrong, but I can’t understand how someone who typically has an educated opinion such as yourself would believe there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll be dominant.
I think you’re homering out on this one.
Long live the dawg.
I only want you to be gone if you take Howard Lincoln with you and forget to bring him back.
Jason, been meaning to ask you this for a while now. We know the FO sees this as the “win now” window. Do the expiring contracts suggest that the FO is thinking the window closes in 2009?
Or do you get the feeling they think the window is longer than just these two seasons?
I don’t think a window ever closes for a team with a young pitcher like Felix and a payroll over 100 mil.
And I don’t believe they think it does, either.
But they’re so wrapped up in lining their pockets that the thought of another sub par year frightens them to death.
But I also don’t believe that they believe their 2-year window is it. I think that’s just their way of selling tickets during that 2-year window.
Lip service to sell tickets???!!??? The Mariners!!!!!????? :shocked smiley:
You know, bringing Jr. back is the dictionary definition of cash cow.
Jason,
With regards to Aumont, when do you see them start to stretch him out and use him as a starter rather than a piggyback guy out of the pen?
Also, with regards to Wlad, do you see his future as being with this organization? From his (very very very very small) sample size, it looks like he’s having a little trouble adjusting to ML-level pitching, but when he hits it, it goes. Are there any indications to you why he wouldn’t have that same learning curve he displayed in the minors where he had trouble hitting the ball at first, but once he got it all figured out, he raked?
Lastly, if you don’t mind, where do you see Triunfel playing, position wise? Has he made progress so far this season, and what’s his MLB ETA if everything goes according to plan? Sept 2010?
Re: Aumont
They are stretching him out. That’s what the piggybacking is for. He hadn’t thrown more than 27 pitches in an appearance for almost a full calendar year.
He’ll be in the rotation this summer, as early as next month.
Re: Wlad
No.
Re: Triunfel
If he really wants to play short, and puts in the work, that’s where he’ll end up.
Otherwise, he has the tools to play anywhere and a move to second, third, or the outfield would not be far fetched.
Barring anything significant in either direction, I don’t expect him to see the big-league regularly field until mid-2010 at the earliest, but I can see scenarios where he gets a September call-up next season.