
Since Rafael Soriano was given away for FREE to the Atlanta Braves last winter, there has been some question as to which of the remaining relievers was second only to closer J.J. Putz.
In brief conversations last season, some believed it was since-traded left-hander George Sherrill. Others thought it was rookie right-hander Brandon Morrow, at least at times, and there were stints in which right-hander Sean Green was that guy, too.
If you’re wondering who might get the nod in 2008, wonder no more.
Barring a lack of luck and a kick in the rear from karma itself, right-hander Mark Lowe is the easy choice to set up Putz and cover high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings.
Lowe began the spring as a question mark, but ended it as a resounding exclamation point. After sitting in the 89-92 mph range very early in the Cactus League schedule, Lowe’s arm strength returned, as did much of his command, and his slider and change were thrown with more confidence and effectiveness.
While his elbow will be in the thoughts of everyone monitoring his progress, he’s shown no ill-effects this spring, and has cemented a spot in the Mariners bullpen as camp breaks this weekend.
In his final three outings, Lowe sat n the 92-95 mph range with his four-seam fastball that offers late life to go with a natural sinking action that assists him in the ground ball department. He reached as high as 97 on the gun and registered 95 on six occasions on Friday night in Las Vegas.
What’s great about the former 5th rounder is that he’s not a typical reliever who uses two pitches, and he’s even got a leg up on many closers who generally stick with two power offerings, and sometimes a true split-finger, like Putz.
Lowe has a nasty slider, that has improved every week and is about 75 percent back to where it was in 2006 before Lowe’s injury, and a changeup that he throws with great arm speed and a consistent release point.
His changeup looks so much like his fastball as the ball leaves his hand that he even crossed up catcher Jamie Burke earlier this week and it looked like Burke was trying to catch a screwball or a knuckler when he was expecting a fastball.
If his own catcher is baffled, how do you think hitters are going to react?
When comparing Lowe to Morrow, the pure stuff isn’t even close. Morrow has slightly better velocity and even better late action on his four-seamer, but Lowe’s secondary offerings and command out Morrow’s to shame.
There are only four other pitchers in the division with stuff that is equal to or better than Lowe’s; A healthy Rich Harden in Oakland, Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez, though a 100 percent healthy Lowe isn’t far off at all, Felix Hernandez and Putz.
You can make a case for Bedard, too, and Bedard is a much more valuable pitcher, but in terms of pure arsenals, Lowe probably edges him out by a slim but clear margin.
His two plus pitches and above-average change are why many have always believed Lowe was being wasted in the bullpen, but with the arm injury and his confidence and personal preference to pitch in relief, Lowe is right where he belongs.
As the second-best reliever in the M’s bullpen, and knocking on the door to No. 1.
Notes:
With Morrow optioned to Double-A West Tennessee, the bullpen is one decision shy of being complete. Six or seven, Mr. McLaren?
A six-man pen will consist of right-handers Putz, Lowe and Green, left-handers Eric O’Flaherty and Ryan Rowland-Smith, and either R.A. Dickey or Cha Seung Baek.
A seven-man relief corps is probably going to include both, but if the actions of the Seattle Mariners over the past week are any indication, the Mariners prefer to go with six.
The Mariners have put Dickey on waivers, which is step one in offering him back to the Minnesota Twins, via Rule 5 regulations.
But they have also been shopping Baek, so it’s possible they were allowing luck to make the choice for them. If Dickey is claimed, they pull Baek off the trade block and keep him. If Dickey clears and they either send Dickey back to Minnesota or have something worked out with the Twins, they get to keep Baek, who is out of options.
The third scenario is that the Mariners do what they have to do to keep Dickey at this stage, and either trade Baek or lose him through the waiver wire. Placing Baek on waivers seems unlikely at this point, if they haven’t already have done so, unless they feel the chances of squeezing him through outweighs the return they’d receive via trade.
With a six-man bullpen, both Mike Morse and Charleton Jimerson probably make the team. Two hours ago I believed Greg Norton was going to get the last spot on five-man bench, but with the thumb injury to third baseman Adrian Beltre, the club might have to use Morse and/or Willie Bloomquist to spell Beltre, which removes one of them from playing the outfield if necessary, something Norton isn’t as capable of doing as is Jimerson.
A seven-man ‘pen eliminates both Jimerson and Norton, most likely, and Jimerson, like Baek, Dickey and Morse, cannot be sent to the minors without at least getting him through waivers.
But…
“Right now I think there’s a good chance a guy like Jimerson gets through,” said a National scout, whose club may be joining the trade talk for Jeremy Reed, who was optioned out on Firday night. “So many teams are looking for another arm or someone that might have some development left. He may very well get through.”
So, going that route with Jimerson might be something the M’s try also, since Norton is not likely to be interested in a Triple-A assignment.
“I think we’d get in on someone like him if he were available,” said the scout. “I was sent here to find an arm and a bench bat, and he might be the best guy available - if Seattle lets him go.”
Lots to chew on in the next day or so for the Mariners.
Let’s hope they make the right decisions.
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Hasn’t this all be announced and figured out already? They showed it all during the game today.
Nice writeup on Lowe. I hope he can get back to 2006 form. Liked seeing those 100mph fastballs and nasty 90+mph sliders.
THANK GOD!!! MORROW’S IN THE MINORS!!
Now someone teach him how to pitch for Christ’s sake!
When do you think Lowe’s slider will be back to where it was pre-injury? It’d be great to see him dazzle in the bullpen for the first time since ‘06.
Maybe I’m way off, but I was just wondering if when considering the “stuff” of a pitcher do scouts consider relievers and starters differently seeing as a reliever can put more into pitches seeing as they’re only counted on for an inning or two? Because I know starters who get converted to relievers can gain a few MPH to their pitches and visa versa.
For once I really like what Bavasi did. Maybe there is hope for him yet. He found a way to keep Baek, Dickey, Jimerson, Morse, Norton, Reed, Rhodes, and maybe Reitsma and hasn’t got himself involved in a stupid trade yet. BP in fine as is. Bench isn’t much but it’ll change later in the year. And there are numerous players in Tacoma as insurance for the ML club and that can be used in trades. The M’s are managing their inventory for the first time in Bavasi’s tenure here. Is it the new guy Bavasi hired as an assistant or is it Bavasi? Who should get credit for this? This’ll pay off for the M’s this year as they aren’t pressured to make any trades they don’t really need for at least another year.
I think they still made a few mistakes.
I like the bullpen, because I think you can make a case for both Dickey and Baek, though in the end I think Baek is traded — as early as April.
The Bench would be better off, for me, if it replaced Cairo with Norton.
If I didn’t think Chen was going to end the year as the starting second baseman, I’d want him on the bench right now, too.
Who gets credit?
McLaren and his staff. Bavasi isn’t the guy making these decisions in his office.
Seth,
Not for stuff purposes, no. But for VALUE, yes.
Not all starters get that extra velo jump like some do, and some starters just don’t do well in relief.
Power pitchers tend to, though.
A reliever isn’t equal to a starter with equal stuff because of the impact the starter can have on the games he starts.
But as far as stuff goes, all we can do is go by what we see.
Greg,
I don’t think he has to get the slider all the way back, but he’s probably going to be as far back as he’ll ever be this season some time.
But since he has really good movement and life on his fastball and his change is more than a show-me pitch, the slider doesn’t have to be…
But it could.
Jason #6
Ya they made a few mistakes this year but they didn’t totally screw themselves for once if Bedard gets signed to a long term deal. Baek getting traded for something useful in April would be great. My main point was that they acted differently this year and didn’t flush a bunch of players down the toilet that have some value to at least the M’s. The roster has room to make some improvements and they do have some trading chips so they don’t have to trade prospects. Reed can be traded now or they keep him for the 4th OF’er for next year when Balentien takes over RF. If McLaren can have this much effect on the 40 man roster and who goes to Tacoma, no wonder I hated Hargrove for constantly screwing Bavasi and the M’s. McLaren seems to have an attitude like that of Tim Ruskel of the Seahawks for continually adding more players to the pile and then see what happens. You still make some mistakes but you also get the job done fairly quickly.
Don’t get me started on the Bedard deal again, Al. Still a bad trade.
But I agree, they certainly didn’t stick with what their ways, which is the difference between McLaren and Hargrove and their staffs.
How can you not prefer the current staff as a whole to Hargrove’s?
I think Riggleman is a going to be a great influence and right-hand man to McLaren, because from what I am told about Riggleman is that his strengths are McLaren’s weaknesses.
One thing we should all remember is that the club isn’t going to get much for Reed or Baek in trade.
Jason #10
Horrible trade but a typical Bavasi trade that had to be done now and we’re stuck with giving up way too much and moving on. McLaren and his staff are 1,000 times better than Hargrove’s if these kind of results can be expected in the future.
Both Baek and Reed should be packaged with another player to get something they need or no trade should be made. Baek could start for other teams and, if they won’t make a fair trade because he is out of options and they think they can steal him, they should act like the rest of these assholes and hang on to him for dear life. Reed has another option next year and may be valuable as their 4th OF’er. Other teams have the same problem with players out of options this year so why should the M’s budge when they don’t have to. It’s pretty obvious the M’s didn’t want to lose Jimerson, Morse, Norton, Dickey, Rhodes, or Baek and they cost nearly nothing. If Morrow comes back this year, they will probably DFA Jimerson and hope he makes it through. I’m satisfied with what the M’s ended up with because they won’t be forced to do anything until maybe this time next year and that’s a good position to be in.
I disagree re: Baek/Reed.
If you have to package them together with a third player of value to get ONE thing of value, then the trade itself is a bad value.
With deals like this, you just get what you can, and sometimes taking a risk on a high-reward type is the best idea.
Reed is NEVER going to be the regular fourth outfielder on this team. Not this year, not next.
They just aren’t fans of his for whatever reason.
Why would the M’s budge when they don’t have to? Well, they will have to when they want to bring Dickey up because he’s simply a better option out of the pen than is Baek.
Lowe isn’t going to get sent down.
And what happens if Morrow does turn it around pretty quickly?
At some point, the M’s will have to. And these teams that you claim aren’t giving in, well, they are.
So I think you’re way off on your last sentence, because that would require Jimerson, Baek and Morse all performing well enough for the club not to need further assistance, and for Norton to be happy in Triple-A all year.
Neither is going to happen.
BTW, if they need a spot for Morrow and have already made a Dickey for Baek change in the pen, the odd-man out will depend on when that happens.
McLaren went with a five-man bench for a reason.
Jason
Sorry I didn’t make myself clear. I was trying to say that Baek needs to be packaged with another player and Reed with another player. I agree that 3 for 1 would be stupid.
My take on this is that they get something of value that isn’t a 100-1 long shot. A high-reward type that doesn’t already have one foot in the grave would be more than acceptable.
You’re probably right on Reed but this is where the FO has really been stupid in the past with a lot of other players. The point is that Reed has some value to this team until something better comes along so he shouldn’t be flushed down the toilet.
There’s no sense to argue about any changes that take place after the roster has been set because we both know the bench sucks and there are going to be some changes.
The obvious answers to some of this is that Baek gets traded for something of value and Dickey comes up when they need him. Morrow would probably push Jimerson out. Norton may be something to add in a trade package.
If the other teams are giving in, we will see a trade or two in the next few days but the roster problems won’t all disappear. Jimerson, Morse, Norton, Reed, Baek, Dickey, and Rhodes all create different problems but cost you nothing.
I don’t think my last sentence is that far off because I’m not looking for the perfect roster this year and losing Jimerson/Norton doesn’t bother me at all because they cost us nothing. I like the fact that they still have Jimerson and Norton and aren’t forced into being stupid for once.
I completely agree with you that McLaren went with a five-man bench for a reason to start the season and they went out of their way to make sure they didn’t lose Baek, Jimerson, or Dickey. It’s just nice to have all this inventory sitting around that has some value and can be used by the M’s this year.
Bavasi’s specialty sure isn’t getting value on small trades. He usually gives up someone of value for someone of no value. See: Bazardo/Frazier or Broussard/Hullet.
I agree the Bedard deal wasn’t a great deal for us because so much talent was sent. At least this go around, he returned an ace-type pitcher and not another Horacio Ramirez. Besides, Tillman years away so theres risk (Butler also). Jones isn’t hitting well this spring and Balentien is right in stride with Jones offensively anyway. Mickolio can’t hit the broad side of a barn thus far and losing Sherrill as a strict left-handed specialist isn’t a huge blow.
Bavasi definitely overpaid but he did it in areas that don’t destroy the team now or in the future. I think the player we will miss most in a couple year is Tillman. Just a hunch.
Yep, when yer forced to make a deal or get nothing, that’s what happens. Bavasi isn’t alone.
And Jones isn’t hitting well this spring?
First off, what’s that got to do with anything? Wilkerson didn’t either. Jones>Wilkerson.
Also, Jones was fine this spring. .259/.322/.407 in his first full spring with the big club… six extra base hits and just 13 Ks in 61 PAs.
Just stop trying to further justify the Bedard deal based on spring training.
Mickolio couldn’t throws strikes last March, either. And while Butler is probably 3 years away, Tillman is not.
What? No backlash on how I called Sherrill not a big loss?? ;)
Seeing how Sherrill is the biggest loss to the 2008 Mariners, I was waiting for a e-smack for that comment. My whole point of that schpeel was even though a ton of talent was given up and we will be looked as the losing side of that deal, not a lot was given up that couldn’t be spared or replaced without a ton of lossed production.
Jones>Wilkerson for sure. But I bet they put up similar lines for 2008 at the plate. And in 2009 and beyond Balentien=Jones in the corners.
Seeing Tillman head up the Orioles rotation in 2010 and beyond is going to suck royally for sure.
Sherrill is NOT the biggest loss to the 2008 Mariners.
An everyday player that is conservatively slightly below average offensively and conservatively between 10 and 20 runs above average defensively is more valuable than a situational left-hander, even if Sherrill repeated his 2007 numbers, which isn’t likely.
The Mariners traded Sherrill when he was at his highest trade value, and O’Flaherty has a decent chance to be a more valuable pitcher - very good versus lefties, better than Sherrill versus righties - and is going to do it for less than 1/3 the price over the next two seasons.
Losing Jones cost the M’s the chance to have a star in 2009 and beyond, and a few runs overall in 2008, plus Wilkerson’s salary.
It’s not really a close call, either.
Balentien does NOT equal Jones in the corners. Offensively he may, but not defensively, not a chance.
and did you spell spiel, schpeel?
I really have enjoyed watching the pitching sequences that Lowe is on the mound. I have been hopeful all winter that he would make at least the comeback he has and I think he looks close to 90% back overall. When he enters the game I pay attention, because his command/control/velocity/change of speed/movement combination of pitching is fun to watch in action (for your team).
I totally agree about Norton over Cairo. He’d be my first pick to keep over Cairo, but not my only choice. I H8 Cairo. OK, not really. Just the idea that any team would think they need 2 Bloomquists with or without Jimerson on that same bench…
I hope they’d get back high upside with a decent chance (20%+) to be solid every or every 5th day players. Not the majority of what I’ve seen from this org. in recent years though it’s happened some. Add a few high risk stocks for the ones that are presently doing nothing for you. It’s a good business decision. Most anything you could get to help now would be less likely to bring you as much return…
That reminds me of the Bedard trade…
For me, it’s a bit too soon to be comparing what the M’s and O’s got out of the trade so far. nothing has been recorded on career stats for any of the players, so so far it’s an absolutely equal trade. At least wait until a season has been played out. Even then it’s not anywhere near the full effects of the production acquired by either team. I will be ready to re-evaluate after Bedard signs with or is traded to another team. Regardless, the deal was bad and even if all 5 of the players the M’s traded have career ending injuries within the next 12 months it wouldn’t change that in my mind. Quantity X Quality / Replaceability doesn’t make it closer than I’d already been thinking because I do understand the difficulty in replacing a Bedard…and a Jones, for that matter. I will never think well enough of this trade to call it anything in the area of good for the M’s unless Bedard is involved in at least the first World Series Penant for them. That’s the bar for me for how much they traded away. Not that I can say they would have gotten rings with those players, but the chances seem far better to me with them retaining those 5 instead of this 1.
The ONLY fair way to judge a GM/team’s decision to make a specific trade is to judge it before the players show their ultimate value.
Judge for what they are + what they are most likely to be for their guaranteed duration + money involved, and that’s it.
If Jones and Tillman got hurt in Florida and never played a game for the O’s organization, that doesn’t make the trade a good one for Seattle and/or a bad one for Baltimore.
You can’t wait to see how a player pans out, because not even the clubs have more of an idea of how the prospects will turn out. They are trading his potential and the reliability rate that he will reach it and we pretty much know what those equate.
You can always look back four years later on a deal and see who got the longer end of the stick, but that’s not what’s going to make this a bad trade for Seattle and a good one for Baltimore.
Baltimore had no use for Bedard at the cost it would take to keep him long term, and received a great talent package in return for him as they rebuild.
It’s that simple for them. Great move, great trade for them even if Jones turns into Rich Amaral, Sherrill retires after one game and the prospects never reach the major leagues.
For Seattle, the club thinks it’s great because Bedard gives them a chance to win in 2008 and 2009.
It’s actually a bad trade because in 2010-2013, they’ll have so many holes that free agency can’t even cover them up.
They were really set up well to make a similar deal without trading Jones next winter (Kazmir) and would have had the pieces in place to go on a run for 4-6 years, rather than maybe two.
So I’m with your final sentence… just in a different way.